Sox Sign OF Adam Duvall to 1 year deal

[The Gray Eagle]

Probably should update the thread title with the news of his broken wrist.

Apparently he is not on the 60-day IL yet:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/04/red-sox-adam-duvall-fractured-wrist.html

He’ll be placed on the 10-day injured list for now, with the expectation that he’ll miss several weeks of action. The team does not yet have an exact timetable for his expected recovery.

Could save the team a little money since he likely won't hit some of his incentives, which is even worse for Duvall:

The injury is tough for Duvall not only because it’ll derail his hot start but also due to the nature of his contract. Duvall is a free agent after the season, having inked a one-year, $7MM contract over the winter and was hoping for a healthy, productive campaign to line him up for a multi-year deal next winter. His contract also contains up to $3MM worth of incentives based on plate appearances. (He) earns $500K bonuses for reaching each of 350, 400, 450 and 500 plate appearances, as well as a $1MM bonus upon reaching 550 trips to the plate. Duvall’s broken wrist all but assures that he won’t reach the very top end of that bonus structure, though depending on how quickly he’s able to return, he could still have a chance to reach those first couple milestones.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Brutal loss. I looked at the similarity scores for Duvall - Renfro was 6th. And when you look at his numbers they are in some ways pretty similar to Renfro.
There is quite a Roster crunch coming when Mondesi, Story and Duvall return.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

Sigh. Beyond the obvious impact, the cascade effect of this injury is brutal. Neither Tapia nor Refsnyder should be starting in CF full-time; that job should be Hernandez's. But the decision to punt shortstop after Bogaerts walked means moving Hernandez equals full-time innings for Arroyo or Chang there, which is equally bad, to say nothing of whether this team is dumb enough to try Dalbec there on the regular. The bottom half of this lineup is a mess that is going to create a lot of 1-2-3 innings. Just ... man, what a bad, bad loss.

There is quite a Roster crunch coming when Mondesi, Story and Duvall return.

I would be astonished if those three guys combined for even 2 WAR total over the rest of the season; nothing should be expected from any of them going forward given past and current injury issues and, in Mondesi's case, the fact that he cannot hit at all. The only viable help for this team needs to come from outside of the organization.

 

[jon abbey]

Apparently he is not on the 60-day IL yet:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/04/red-sox-adam-duvall-fractured-wrist.html

Regardless of what the link says, guys can't be put on the 60 day IL unless the team is simultaneously adding someone to the 40 man roster, so until BOS has someone they want to add, Duvall won't be put on the 60 day no matter how long they expect him out.

 

[GPO Man]

I

Sigh. Beyond the obvious impact, the cascade effect of this injury is brutal. Neither Tapia nor Refsnyder should be starting in CF full-time; that job should be Hernandez's. But the decision to punt shortstop after Bogaerts walked means moving Hernandez equals full-time innings for Arroyo or Chang there, which is equally bad, to say nothing of whether this team is dumb enough to try Dalbec there on the regular. The bottom half of this lineup is a mess that is going to create a lot of 1-2-3 innings. Just ... man, what a bad, bad loss.


I would be astonished if those three guys combined for even 2 WAR total over the rest of the season; nothing should be expected from any of them going forward given past and current injury issues and, in Mondesi's case, the fact that he cannot hit at all. The only viable help for this team needs to come from outside of the organization.

I agree, the Sox have zero margin for error now if they even want to sniff a wild card. Duvall was looking like a potential 5 WAR player and now we are lucky to get above replacement level production for his spot in the lineup. With Duvall, we could hide a lack of production at 2B and C. Along with SS, those spots now become magnified.

 

[GB5]

A few thoughts, it being the wrist, is just bad news all the way around. I can’t recall the last time I saw a baseball player with a wrist injury where the description of the injury didn’t include some takeaway that reads like, “X player sustained a wrist injury and only missed 6 weeks, but it took over a year for the power to return”

additionally even with all of the lefties this week I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw Chang almost exclusively. After the Baltimore series, Cora had a weird quote about hitting the ball forward. When asked to clarify it was in reference to how important it is to put the ball in play. I laughed at the time and said to myself, Dalbec is done here.

 

[Quatchie]

What a terrible roster this is. Going to be a long summer. Duvall was fun to watch, just exposes they have no real depth.

 

[KillerBs]

Chaim has to get a SS in the next week who can field the position. Chang and Dalbec as back up SSs are not plausible, never were, especially when your starting SS isnt that good at SS and is needed in CF.

This was an off season task that did not get done unless you count Mondesi who one reasonably surmises the team should have known would not be available out of the gate.

Move some of the excess pitching -- Crawford, Winckowski, Pivetta idk -- and/or one of Tapia/Duran who are redundant.

Here are two AAA options which should not be too pricy and appear capable of fielding the position.

Zac Short
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=short-000zac

Andruw Monasterio
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=monast000and

 

[Sin Duda]

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

[iddoc]

Is Nick Green available?

 

[doctorogres]

For what it’s worth, this is an ex-NFL head team doc who has a big following for fantasy football injury analysis.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Is Nick Green available?

Or Dick Green from the A’s?

 

[AB in DC]

“Actually ‘good news’. Will be back this season.”

For what it’s worth, this is an ex-NFL head team doc who has a big following for fantasy football injury analysis.

(No idea how to embed on mobile, will come back and edit later).

IANAD, but better that it's a bone fracture than a tendon injury, isn't it?

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I

I agree, the Sox have zero margin for error now if they even want to sniff a wild card. Duvall was looking like a potential 5 WAR player and now we are lucky to get above replacement level production for his spot in the lineup. With Duvall, we could hide a lack of production at 2B and C. Along with SS, those spots now become magnified.

Let's not get carried away here. Duvall had a great first two weeks of the season, and giving at bats to the likes of Dalbec and Tapia in his absence is presumably not a good thing, but he has never been close to a 5 WAR player. He turns 34 this year. How many players have breakout seasons at the age of 34?

Did these two weeks represent a fundamental new level of performance for Duvall or just a hot streak? If it's the latter (which I would strongly suspect), losing him should not be the end of the world, even if this roster has little margin for error.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

“Actually ‘good news’. Will be back this season.”

For what it’s worth, this is an ex-NFL head team doc who has a big following for fantasy football injury analysis.

(No idea how to embed on mobile, will come back and edit later).

You might want to read up on him and his history before posting what he says. There's a reason he has a lot of time on his hands.

We have our own Sports Med/Ortho here who many of us know and trust, despite his Mountain Dew habit.
Paging @DaveRoberts'Shoes

 

[nvalvo]

Here are two AAA options which should not be too pricy and appear capable of fielding the position.

Zac Short
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=short-000zac

Andruw Monasterio
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=monast000and

Maybe I'm missing something, but what do you see that suggests either of these guys are likely to outperform Yu Chang, David Hamilton, or Jarren Duran?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Maybe I'm missing something, but what do you see that suggests either of these guys are likely to outperform Yu Chang, David Hamilton, or Jarren Duran?

Isn't it obvious? They're not in the Red Sox system at present, so of course they're better options. /s

The over-reactions here are premature. It sucks losing Duvall, but it's not the end of the world.

 

[KillerBs]

Maybe I'm missing something, but what do you see that suggests either of these guys are likely to outperform Yu Chang, David Hamilton, or Jarren Duran?

Minor league stats and credible reports that they can play SS defensively at the major leagues.

The Yu Chang thing baffles thing me. He has never hit much in the minors and has but up a 630 OPS in a 550 MLB ABs. There is no reason to think he can hit is there? And he hasn't hardly played SS since 2018 at any level.

And I understood Hamilton was challenged defensively at 2b, let alone short.

 

[oumbi]

Minor league stats and credible reports that they can play SS defensively at the major leagues.

The Yu Chang thing baffles thing me. He has never hit much in the minors and has but up a 630 OPS in a 550 MLB ABs. There is no reason to think he can hit is there? And he hasn't hardly played SS since 2018 at any level.

And I understood Hamilton was challenged defensively at 2b, let alone short.

It would be great if these two players could step in and be better than in house options.

But the links you provided show Short as playing 67 MLB games (Detroit) and has a .140 ish BA with an OPS of .500. He is now 27 years old.

Monastario has no time in MLB and he is 26 years old. In the minors he has played 646 games with an OPS of .697 with 24 homers.

The stats provided do not convince me they are clearly better than in house options. Please share those reports on their fielding, I would like to see them.

 

[8slim]

Let's not get carried away here. Duvall had a great first two weeks of the season, and giving at bats to the likes of Dalbec and Tapia in his absence is presumably not a good thing, but he has never been close to a 5 WAR player. He turns 34 this year. How many players have breakout seasons at the age of 34?

Did these two weeks represent a fundamental new level of performance for Duvall or just a hot streak? If it's the latter (which I would strongly suspect), losing him should not be the end of the world, even if this roster has little margin for error.

Agreed. We’ve all been justifiably thrilled with Duvall’s performance, but he was going to revert to some semblance of mean.

That being said, because we didn’t adequately address SS his absence is going to really hurt. I continue to firmly believe that 2nd half 2021 Kike was an outlier batting performance from him. We really need to make a move if Story isn’t going to be back until August as some suggest.

 

[nvalvo]

The Yu Chang thing baffles thing me. He has never hit much in the minors and has but up a 630 OPS in a 550 MLB ABs. There is no reason to think he can hit is there? And he hasn't hardly played SS since 2018 at any level.

Well, I won't pretend to have an opinion about David Hamilton's defense (although he's on a Duvall-like tear in Worcester) after seeing him for a total of like five innings in Spring Training, but this part I can answer. Chang has spent much of his big league career sharing infields with the likes of Francisco Lindor, José Ramírez, Ahmed Rosario, Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Wander Franco. And the offensive case is mostly pretty much based on Statcast quality of contact: he has well-above average max and average exit velocities.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Minor league stats and credible reports that they can play SS defensively at the major leagues.

The Yu Chang thing baffles thing me. He has never hit much in the minors and has but up a 630 OPS in a 550 MLB ABs. There is no reason to think he can hit is there? And he hasn't hardly played SS since 2018 at any level.

And I understood Hamilton was challenged defensively at 2b, let alone short.

Chang is fine defensively at SS. I think his lack of playing time there has more to do with a) who he's been playing for and b) his bat. He's been a part time utllity infielder since his MLB debut because he had Francisco Lindor, Amed Rosario, and Wander Franco ahead of him at short. In his short time with the Sox last year, he primarily played SS and was solid.

 

[KillerBs]

Short:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2021/08/01/detroit-tigers-working-level-out-zack-shorts-swing-plane/5447497001/

https://motorcitybengals.com/2021/02/15/detroit-tigers-roster-zack-short/

Monasterio

https://2080baseball.com/reports/andruw-monasterio/

https://www.federalbaseball.com/2018/8/21/17766142/scouting-report-washington-nationals-prospect-andruw-monasterio-acquired-daniel-murphy-trade-cubs

The point is not so much about these two players; I am sure there are half dozen more out there that would fit the bill if not better, ie relatively cheap who can play the position defensively and hopefully not be a complete offensive blackhole. Maybe thats Niko Goodrum but I see he is not even playing SS at AAA.

The point is that we need a back up SS, who can play the position defensively, which I do not think Chang or Dalbec remotely are.

OTOH can Refsnyder really play CF?

 

[KillerBs]

Chang is fine defensively at SS. I think his lack of playing time there has more to do with a) who he's been playing for and b) his bat. He's been a part time utllity infielder since his MLB debut because he had Francisco Lindor, Amed Rosario, and Wander Franco ahead of him at short. In his short time with the Sox last year, he primarily played SS and was solid.

OK, good to hear. Raffy needs some real help on that side of the IF.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I just assume that Dalbec is a bad shortstop but admittedly I have no evidence to support this. Is there enough to give him a statistically meaningfully assessment at the position?

 

[bsj]

Cora just said Duvall does NOT need surgery. That's a huge positive.

 

[doctorogres]

You might want to read up on him and his history before posting what he says. There's a reason he has a lot of time on his hands.

We have our own Sports Med/Ortho here who many of us know and trust, despite his Mountain Dew habit.
Paging @DaveRoberts'Shoes

I'm familiar with DRS and a fan of his posts, as an off-and-on reader of this board for 10+ years.

And yeah, I knew there was controversy surrounding Chao but thanks for the invitation to read up on it. Specifically, there is a fairly long list of botched surgeries and questionable drug prescriptions. Some Chargers fans blame him for causing Ryan Leaf nerve damage and Leaf brought a malpractice suit but later dropped it for unknown reasons. However, this San Diego Union-Tribune article is more of a mixed bag. For example, he did Philip River's knee surgery in 2008 and Rivers was healthy for years after.

All that notwithstanding, Chao is not operating on anyone or prescribing them anything. I would trust his opinion about how quickly we could expect an athlete to recover from this type of injury, especially if he finds himself a better surgeon than Chao.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

All that notwithstanding, Chao is not operating on anyone or prescribing them anything. I would trust his opinion about how quickly we could expect an athlete to recover from this type of injury, especially if he finds himself a better surgeon than Chao.

screen name checks out

 

[Rovin Romine]

screen name checks out

Doc-Toro-Gres. . .Doc Teracotta Bull?

 

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

If he doesn’t need surgery it must be essentially nondisplaced, which is best-case scenario. Basically nothing for 6-8 weeks, then a rehab stint. See you in mid-July?

 

[nvalvo]

OTOH can Refsnyder really play CF?

Could Duvall?

 

[nvalvo]

If he doesn’t need surgery it must be essentially nondisplaced, which is best-case scenario. Basically nothing for 6-8 weeks, then a rehab stint. See you in mid-July?

From your keyboard to God's web browser.

If they can hang in there, this could be a pretty interesting team in the second half with Story and Duvall adding a ton more RHH thump.

 

[AlwaysSomewhere]

Andrelton Simmons is available. He is 33 years old, coming off a terrible year, but was previously well above replacement level. In his prime he was regarded as the best defensive shortstop in baseball, and would probably still be good on defense at least. He played in all seven games for the Netherlands in last month's WBC and hit .344, which does not prove much except that he's not far from game condition.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Andrelton Simmons is available. He is 33 years old, coming off a terrible year, but was previously well above replacement level. In his prime he was regarded as the best defensive shortstop in baseball, and would probably still be good on defense at least. He played in all seven games for the Netherlands in last month's WBC and hit .344, which does not prove much except that he's not far from game condition.

No, he's coming off two terrible years in a row. Combined the last two seasons: .216/.277/.261/.538, 52 OPS+ in 165 total games. That he's still sitting out there available suggests he's washed up as a big leaguer.

 

[AlwaysSomewhere]

Baseball Reference gives him 1.5 WAR for 2021--a near league average player on the strength of his defense. He was indeed terrible in 2022.

 

[derekson]

No, he's coming off two terrible years in a row. Combined the last two seasons: .216/.277/.261/.538, 52 OPS+ in 165 total games. That he's still sitting out there available suggests he's washed up as a big leaguer.

So you're saying he's still a better option than Chang?

 

[AlNipper49]

The Pirates may be looking for shortstop help with Cruz down. Not like either team will be going for it, but we may not get our choice of bottom-of-the-barrel options

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Second-guesser’s club: I’m really frustrated they didn’t make a move for Elvis Andrus when they had the chance, especially when it turned out he signed a reasonable 1/3M deal with the White Sox.

Maybe he was concerned about the size of his role in Boston, but man he’s exactly what they could use now.

Edit: He’s currently hitting .167, I know…

 

[Rovin Romine]

Second-guesser’s club: I’m really frustrated they didn’t make a move for Elvis Andrus when they had the chance, especially when it turned out he signed a reasonable 1/3M deal with the White Sox.

Maybe he was concerned about the size of his role in Boston, but man he’s exactly what they could use now.

Edit: He’s currently hitting .167, I know…

I'm more impressed by his two errors and -0.5 WAR. How much is the market price per negative WAR again?

 

[bosockboy]

Second-guesser’s club: I’m really frustrated they didn’t make a move for Elvis Andrus when they had the chance, especially when it turned out he signed a reasonable 1/3M deal with the White Sox.

Maybe he was concerned about the size of his role in Boston, but man he’s exactly what they could use now.

Edit: He’s currently hitting .167, I know…

Andrus means no Duvall. Pretty sure that was the same roster spot.

 

[biollante]

Is his injury like Nomar's ? If so, we are screwed.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Nomar had a torn tendon sheath, so not similar to Duval's break.

 

[koufax32]

Nomar had a torn tendon sheath, so not similar to Duval's break.

I believe that was Duvall’s injury last year.

edit: yep
“While with the Braves last year, Duvall injured the same wrist late in July and had surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath. He was out for the remainder of the season.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/04/10/sports/adam-duvall-injury/

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

When do we start to worry about this guy? As good as he was before the wrist injury, he's been worse since he returned, hitting .146/.255/.268. He has one hit in his last 21 at bats. Is he still hurt*? Is he just reverting to mean after his amazing start? Is it time for Cora to start writing somebody else's name in the lineup? He's played just about every day since returning.

* Am I correct in remembering that he had a hard time recovering from last year's injury?

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Most of the pitchers he is facing are in mid-season form and he's still trying to catch up from the injury. He probably won't until after the ASB, possibly as late as the deadline. I said to cut him now in the game thread, but that's the game thread. The more rational part of my brain says that he needs the reps, even if it has terrible outcomes must of the time, and the team is not going anywhere, so just run him out there until he figures it out or until his season average dips below .100. Best case scenario? He turns it around in the next few weeks and they deal him for value. Worst case is they're out the money with very little to show for it, which is kind of par for the course lately.

 

[Fishy1]

He's a guy who has a career OBP of .291. He's never walked much, always struck out a ton. This is a pretty normal stretch for this sort of guy. He'll get hot, and then he'll strike out for fifty percent of his at-bats for another stretch. That's why we signed him to a one-year deal.

 

[LoLsapien]

He's a guy who has a career OBP of .291. He's never walked much, always struck out a ton. This is a pretty normal stretch for this sort of guy. He'll get hot, and then he'll strike out for fifty percent of his at-bats for another stretch. That's why we signed him to a one-year deal.

Adding onto this, every one of his offensive categories have been in decline each year since 2019 (edit: except for home runs in 2021 which was so improbable given his trends that I blacked out staring at it). He was brought in, by my interpretation, because we only had one reliable CF -Kike- who had just had a lousy year, and our infield was already dealing with injuries to Story, and potentially Xander was leaving, so Kike was likely going to be needed in the infield. I don't think Duval was brought in with the expectation he was going to be a star, more that he would provide stability at a position of concern. Duval probably should be making way for Duran, whose defensive compentancy was... uh... questionable coming into the year, so he can get as many MLB reps as possible.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Adding onto this, every one of his offensive categories have been in decline each year since 2019.

He hit a career high 38 home runs in 2021

 

[LoLsapien]

Well, yeah, he hit a lot of home runs, but besides THAT, what has Adam Duvall ever done for us?

 

[Humphrey]

Well, yeah, he hit a lot of home runs, but besides THAT, what has Adam Duvall ever done for us?

Not a benching per se, but no need to run him out there every day once Verdugo comes back. Let him round back into form more gradually.