Sox Sign OF Adam Duvall to 1 year deal

SouthernBoSox

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He’s profiles extremely well at Fenway. Given the current roster make up, he’s going to play alot, and if healthy, I’d bet on a career high in home runs.

The Story injury is such a gut punch. I really quite like the team otherwise and think they’d have a really legitimate shot at the wildcard.
 

bosox1534

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Dec 17, 2022
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Does Kike move to SS or 2b now?
Who gets DFA for 1 year of Duvall or will we wait for Story to hit the DL?
As of right now SS but I’d say the likelihood of signing a short stop is higher than not. My guess is Kike at second and Andrus at short with Duvall playing a lot of center. I think this is where you could see a Ort/Brasier DFA but if it hasn’t happened yet maybe it never will.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Why is he so cheap, just one year removed from 38HR/113RBI season?

Just the sub-300 OBP?

And why is he the answer in CF? Only 75 games there out of 770.
 

chawson

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I think he'll be a helpful addition but I'm very skeptical that a 34-year-old with about 70 career games in CF is now our full-time center fielder.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Well that's different. This is decidedly a "non-contact" guy and not because of his walk numbers. I am foreseeing some frustrating stretches comparing Duvall's career stats to JBJ, almost identical BA and .017 less OBP. Likewise, JBJ average BR oWAR = 1.3 per 162 games, Duvall BR oWAR = 0.8 per 162. A lot more power so I suppose Duvall is a guy you can put low in the order and he'll continue the THREAT of power and maybe bang you 20+ homers. But I'm not seeing this move the needle substantially for the overall offense.
 

JM3

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Should leave enough $ for Andrus. Have already discussed that I think he plays right against lefties & shares time in CF against righties.

Although that would presumably be Refsnyder's role, so maybe they do plan on Hernandez being a big part of the infield equation & not just a tertiary part like I would expect. The depth & optionality should be so much better than the last couple years.
 

TimScribble

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How does Story to the DL work timeframe wise? This would be the open spot on the 40 for now. If not, Sox will need to make a decision for both Duvall and the next piece if they don’t make a trade.
 

JM3

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Traditionally, Duvall has struggled the 1st month before picking it up a bit & then mashing in June, so might as well ease him in.

Career wRC+ by month:

March/April 75
May 101
June 122
July 103
August 78
Sept/Oct 95

He has graded out as a slightly above average CF in his time there over the past 2 years. He's definitely more of an option than the answer, & he's being paid appropriately for that.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They needed RH power and another OF, and with the desire to only commit to short term deals, this seems like a fairly good fit. Add Andrus to the mix and let’s go to Fort Myers.
 

A Bad Man

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I'm not sure if we will be able to swing Andrus, as things are getting a bit tight. Could be a Josh Harrison situation. Or a trade, of course.
 

cornwalls@6

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I don't see Kike going to the infield full time. Pending the MI signing yet to be announced, I still see him as the primary CF in a 4 man rotation.
Bloom certainly alluded to the possibility of him getting more IF time this year. We’ll see how it shakes out. Obviously Story’s recovery timeline will be a major factor. I do think we see him in the IF a decent amount, at least in the first half.
 

jteders1

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Probably a trade would be my guess. We sign Andrus and come up right against the threshold number, then there is definitely a possibility we're in the same situation we are last year. 2-3 games outside a playoff spot, don't drop any payroll, and then fall over the threshold after incentives kick in.
 

SouthernBoSox

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johnnywayback

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I will give them credit -- they screwed up with Bogaerts, but they've pivoted nicely to the next best plan, which is trying to stay competitive for a wild card in 23 while working on opening the window a little wider in 24 and beyond.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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This wording is pretty poor. Devers resigning is ENORMOUS long term progress. The absence of long term commitments to aging free agents is long term progress.

There are very few large payroll teams with more payroll flexibility to add a major player the next couple years.
Seriously. Complaining that the Sox don't have a bunch of guys in their 30's locked up to long term contracts is a weird take.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I will give them credit -- they screwed up with Bogaerts, but they've pivoted nicely to the next best plan, which is trying to stay competitive for a wild card in 23 while working on opening the window a little wider in 24 and beyond.
Refusing to give a 31 year old shortstop with questionable defense a 12 year offer could be judged as prudent rather than a "screw up".

He got a godfather offer.
 

cornwalls@6

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This wording is pretty poor. Devers resigning is ENORMOUS long term progress. The absence of long term commitments to aging free agents is long term progress.

There are very few large payroll teams with more payroll flexibility to add a major player the next couple years.
Agree. And three of them are bullpen guys, who I never want to commit long term resources to, unless it’s a truly elite closer. Other than maybe getting caught flat footed on the market for XB, I just don’t buy the narrative that Bloom has mismanaged the off season.
 

RG33

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He’s profiles extremely well at Fenway. Given the current roster make up, he’s going to play alot, and if healthy, I’d bet on a career high in home runs.
I really like this signing and had wished for it earlier in the offseason in the other thread.

With that said, I’m willing to take that bet on Duvall hitting a career high in HRs this year (would be 39), as I would thoroughly enjoy paying that out.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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This wording is pretty poor. Devers resigning is ENORMOUS long term progress. The absence of long term commitments to aging free agents is long term progress.

There are very few large payroll teams with more payroll flexibility to add a major player the next couple years.
Yeah, that was my impression as well. His use of "progress" is clumsy at best, misleading at worst.
 

chawson

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I'd be very surprised if the only substantive trade we consummated this winter was Jacob Wallace for Wyatt Mills.
 

AlNipper49

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1. Extend the best of our 2 long-term options to a deal that is largely defendable given the other contracts given out
2. Perform a decent "soft reset" by using every available penny under the soft cap, avoiding future penalties.
3. Assemble a team, in reset, that could gun for the playoffs if the moons align correctly.
4. Lose zero strength from the farm in doing so. Lost a few fungible 40 man bubble types. A positive versus filling it with bullshit. A few moves still likely to be made here.

The top priority for Bloom at this point is building up the arm depth in the minors. The bats have been built nicely, the arms have almost nothing waiting in the wings.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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At this point in the off-season, this looks like a good deal. Duvall profiles well in Fenway, and we can certainly use a plus OF glove who can handle CF on at least a part-time basis. Maybe he gives us Renfroe-like value this year while we see if Rafaela continues to progress.
I'd be very surprised if the only substantive trade we consummated this winter was Jacob Wallace for Wyatt Mills.
Agreed. Houck and a mLer on the 40 man for Kim and a mLer not on the 40 man? (Maybe a pitcher, as AN49 suggests.)
 

cantor44

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At this point in the off-season, this looks like a good deal. Duvall profiles well in Fenway, and we can certainly use a plus OF glove who can handle CF on at least a part-time basis. Maybe he gives us Renfroe-like value this year while we see if Rafaela continues to progress.

Agreed. Houck and a mLer on the 40 man for Kim and a mLer not on the 40 man? (Maybe a pitcher, as AN49 suggests.)
Agreed that Kim should be the next move. Obviously the question is at what cost; but the fit seems ideal, honestly. He's an exciting player and would bridge to Mayer perfectly.

C: McGuire
1B: Casas
2B: Kiké
SS: Kim
3B: Devers
LF: Yoshida
CF: Duvall
RF: Verdugo
DH: Turner

Is a decent line up. Not championship caliber, but should put up a fight at least, albeit with a lot of "ifs" ("ifs" being a defining characteristic of this roster).
 

bosockboy

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Agreed that Kim should be the next move. Obviously the question is at what cost; but the fit seems ideal, honestly. He's an exciting player and would bridge to Mayer perfectly.

C: McGuire
1B: Casas
2B: Kiké
SS: Kim
3B: Devers
LF: Yoshida
CF: Duvall
RF: Verdugo
DH: Turner

Is a decent line up. Not championship caliber, but should put up a fight at least, albeit with a lot of "ifs" ("ifs" being a defining characteristic of this roster).
If you squint there’s a 2013 vibe there.
 

Ale Xander

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Low risk good move. I'd like to see Enrique in CF, Verdugo in LF, Duvall in RF, Yoshida at DH, Arroyo at 2B and sign a SS or trade for Kim, and Turner as PH/bench, but maybe that's wrong (especially with OBP and $)and too much pressure on Casas.
 

Beomoose

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Solid bridge year signing, hope he's healthy and rakes within the friendly confines. Always nice to have another Sharp Dress Man on the team too.
Refusing to give a 31 year old shortstop with questionable defense a 12 year offer could be judged as prudent rather than a "screw up".

He got a godfather offer.
The screw up was not giving him the Story deal when he was essentially saying "give me the Story deal" right after they signed Story, instead (in his/Boras' mind) lowballing consistently until coming in with the fifth-best Godfather offer this offseason.
 

kazuneko

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My guess is Kike mostly plays 2B, and they will acquire a veteran SS. But he’ll still play some CF as well, as matchups/situations dictate.
Why? Shortstop is a more important position and Kike is almost certainly the best defender we have at the position. I get it that he hasn’t played there a ton but when he has he’s been elite. 9 DRS in 618 innings is gold glove caliber defense.
The only player we could acquire who would be better is Kim, but his offensive improvement last year doesn’t seem sustainable and it would mean potentially acquiring him at peak value. It also would mean getting dangerously close to the luxury tax in a year when we need to overachieve to compete.
Sox should shore up their IF defense (at 2b) by signing someone like Harrison and call it a day. If they do happen to overachieve they can make a trade at the deadline to upgrade the roster for the stretch run.
 
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chawson

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Low risk good move. I'd like to see Enrique in CF, Verdugo in LF, Duvall in RF, Yoshida at DH, Arroyo at 2B and sign a SS or trade for Kim, and Turner as PH/bench, but maybe that's wrong (especially with OBP and $)and too much pressure on Casas.
I'd also prefer to see Kiké in CF and Arroyo get some run, but not at the expense of Turner. Turner is projected to be the first or second best hitter in that group, depending how you view Yoshida, and has $1M worth of performance bonuses tied to plate appearances.
 

JM3

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The screw up was not giving him the Story deal when he was essentially saying "give me the Story deal" right after they signed Story, instead (in his/Boras' mind) lowballing consistently until coming in with the fifth-best Godfather offer this offseason.
Who knows how accurate that is, but maybe they aren't that excited about how X will age & don't think he's going to be particularly good at 34, let alone by the end of the contract. & you're left with big contracts for X/Story/Devers & needing spots for Mayer/ Casas & hopefully Yorke. Unless you're comfortable projecting X out to LF, but then then they appear to think Yoshida is the guy for that role.

You can kind of see a blue print of Casas/Story/Mayer/Devers Yoshida/Rafaela/Bleis which is super exciting & cheap enough for a few years to make some major acquisitions.
 

BaseballJones

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I think he meant there's not many long term COMMITMENTS. This is clearly a plan to keep the team competitive while the young'uns develop and start feeding the MLB club. You do that by NOT shelling out long term, expensive commitments to veterans, but to sign a bunch of them to very short contracts. Rinse and repeat until the kids are ready to roll.

I have no idea if the 2023 Red Sox will be any good. If things break right (which includes the team having good health) then they could be very good. If things break wrong they'll be a disaster. Most likely it will be something in the middle, and we will watch a reasonably competitive team during the 2023 season, while the prospects get another valuable year of development.
 

kazuneko

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Low risk good move. I'd like to see Enrique in CF, Verdugo in LF, Duvall in RF, Yoshida at DH, Arroyo at 2B and sign a SS or trade for Kim, and Turner as PH/bench, but maybe that's wrong (especially with OBP and $)and too much pressure on Casas.
Yeah, I don’t see that as likely, and I think your post illustrates why they probably aren’t acquiring another starting caliber INF. After all, Turner didn’t come here to be a bat off the bench and as it stands he’s looking like the best RH bat in the lineup. The Sox need him in the lineup. Barring injury, he’s the Sox’s regular DH.
Whether people like it or not, the Sox signing Duvall suggests they are prioritizing IF defense over OF defense, which means deploying their best defender (Kike) at SS rather than CF.
Kike is an elite defender wherever you play him, and now that Duvall has signed they have another competent CF on the roster - which will push Kike to SS. The issue, of course, is that neither Yoshida or Verdugo should be playing RF, but that’s probably something Bloom should have considered before he signed Yoshida and Turner. At this point, if they really want to upgrade the OF defense they probably should be considering packaging Verdugo in a trade for a competent right fielder.
 

Sec42R37S21

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Dec 13, 2022
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He’s profiles extremely well at Fenway. Given the current roster make up, he’s going to play alot, and if healthy, I’d bet on a career high in home runs.

The Story injury is such a gut punch. I really quite like the team otherwise and think they’d have a really legitimate shot at the wildcard.
Are you really Sam Kennedy or did the Red Sox pay you to write this?

Duvall hasn't played over 100 games in the last three and hasn't hit over .230 in the last four years. He hit .213 last year. There is a reason he was available and it's because he is an aging .213 hitter.

I know we all like to be optimistic and hopeful, but common sense needs to kick in sooner or later and we need to accept that the Red Sox are a middle to lower-of-the-pack team right now. Just be like a Minnesota Twin fan right now and expect to lose. But sadly, the Red Sox ticketsprices are 5 times as much as Twins tickets.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Whats the reasoning behind why Verdugo can’t play RF? He was fine there in 20 and 21. Lousy last year but sounds like he was battling an injury.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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If you squint there’s a 2013 vibe there.

For starters, nothing wrong with this move. It's not exciting but its another player past their prime with a decent enough career track record whom could pan out and won't hurt the team long term if he doesn't.



This next part isn't directed specifically at you, I'm just quoting it because there has been a lot of mention of "2013 vibes" and other than people looking at the team and saying there is no reason to expect anything of substance to the year, I don't really get the 2013 similarities.

The line ups really aren't similar. 2013 had David Ortiz at the heart of the line up, and if someone wants to equate Devers with Papi toward the end of his career, I guess I get it. I wouldn't personally equate them and I am beyond excited that we extended Devers, but I'm not about to compare him to possibly the most important player in Red Sox history (not the best, most important). After that though 2013 also had a 29 year old Dustin Pedroia (with Story out, there is nothing close to that in this line up). Ellsbury was a career 103 OPS+ (brought down a good bit by his last 3 seasons) whereas Kike is a 97 OPS+ career player - and 2 years older than Ellsbury in 2013. I suppose Saltalamacchia and McGuire are comparable, but there isn't a "David Ross" type back up to guide the pitching staff.

The key additions to that line up were players in their prime with Mike Napoli (going into his age 31 season), Shane Victorino (32) and Drew (30). For this team they're Duvall (34), Turner (38) and Yoshida (29), whom I like but you don't really have a track record to point to in the majors the way you could someone like Victorino. Duvall is also much more like a worse offensive version (offensively) of Johnny Gomes (career 106 OPS+ for Gomes, vs 97 for Duvall) than he is like anything else.

That team also had a bunch of very highly rated prospects that were either already in the majors or right on the cusp in Iglesias (obviously traded for Peavy), Bradley Jr, Middlebrooks, and Bogaerts. I get equating Casas to one of them, but everyone else from a position standpoint at the top of the farm is considerably further away than those guys were.

Going into the year, the front of the rotation had a 29 year old Jon Lester, a 28 year old Clay Buchholz, Lackey (coming off his own injury) was the #3 on that team to start the year at 34 whereas Sale is expected to be the ace of this team, Dempster and Kluber are very comparable, and I think we can equate Doubront at the time to Pivetta (around 160ip of slightly below average starting pitching). Sure, the pitching prospects could come up and fill the top of the rotation roles, but they could also go the way of Allen Webster and his 8.69ERA that year. Of course any of the prospects could turn into Lester as well, they could also turn into Doubront, whom was usable enough early on in his career but out of the majors for good following his age 27 season.


I just really don't see the comparison between where the 2023 Red Sox stand (at present) and the 2013 team other than a lot of people think (thought) both teams would stink.
 
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JM3

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Are you really Sam Kennedy or did the Red Sox pay you to write this?

Duvall hasn't played over 100 games in the last three and hasn't hit over .230 in the last four years. He hit .213 last year. There is a reason he was available and it's because he is an aging .213 hitter.

I know we all like to be optimistic and hopeful, but common sense needs to kick in sooner or later and we need to accept that the Red Sox are a middle to lower-of-the-pack team right now. Just be like a Minnesota Twin fan right now and expect to lose. But sadly, the Red Sox ticketsprices are 5 times as much as Twins tickets.
I mean, there was a pandemic in 2020 & he played 146 games in 2021 (albeit with 2 teams), but go off.

Also, he hit .267 in 2019, so that's also not true, & batting average? Smh. There are things to be cautious about, but yeah.
 

chrisfont9

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He’s profiles extremely well at Fenway. Given the current roster make up, he’s going to play alot, and if healthy, I’d bet on a career high in home runs.

The Story injury is such a gut punch. I really quite like the team otherwise and think they’d have a really legitimate shot at the wildcard.
Don't give up hope on Story. Just because they refused to announce a timeline doesn't mean he's lost for the year. It just means we have no way of knowing for a bit.

I am beginning to like this lineup. If we have some reverse-of-2022 injury luck, things could be quite interesting.