Sox Sign OF Adam Duvall to 1 year deal

geoflin

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 26, 2004
706
Melrose MA
If Miami does trade for Arraez it's unlikely Minnesota takes a MI back, they already have a surplus, which makes Miami even more likely to want to trade Wendle or whoever.
 

A Bad Man

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2016
1,050
The real question with Duvall and this signing is: what about that ECU tendon sheath 34-year-old Duvall had repaired last August?

Bautista ('12) and Teixeira ('13) were both mashers who had tendon sheath surgery; Bautista was 31, Teixeira 33. Both B and T missed about 40 games the year following their surgeries; B had his in August of the year previous, T in July. Both B and T lost about 50 points on their ISO after coming back.

Now, that was 10 years ago, but I doubt much has changed in ECU tendon sheath repair (though I could be wrong). This is obviously a small sample size, but probably safest to assume that Duvall will be slow to return and somewhat diminished when he does.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
The real question with Duvall and this signing is: what about that ECU tendon sheath 34-year-old Duvall had repaired last August?

Bautista ('12) and Teixeira ('13) were both mashers who had tendon sheath surgery; Bautista was 31, Teixeira 33. Both B and T missed about 40 games the year following their surgeries; B had his in August of the year previous, T in July. Both B and T lost about 50 points on their ISO after coming back.

Now, that was 10 years ago, but I doubt much has changed in ECU tendon sheath repair (though I could be wrong). This is obviously a small sample size, but probably safest to assume that Duvall will be slow to return and somewhat diminished when he does.
Asking out of complete ignorance. From a hitting standpoint does it matter which hand?
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,795
Honolulu HI
If Turner is the RH compliment at 1B and back up at 3rd Yoshida's likely to get some starts at DH and the occasional day off. I really don't think it's that hard to find playing time and ABs to satisfy four outfielders, given the positional flexibility and the likelihood of Kike' playing games in the IF.
I really don't think the Red Sox gave Justin Turner $22 million dollars to be the RH compliment to Casas at 1b, and I think we all hope that there won't be many 3b bats available. Turner got 532 ABs last year and I don't think there is any reason to think that he won't get just as many this coming year. After all, he is one of the best bats in the line-up and the single best RH hitter on the team.
it's also been reported that Duvall chose the Red Sox over the Mets because the Mets saw him as a 4th outfielder and the Sox were offering him a starting role. So yes, there will be at least 4 players getting regular ABs in the OF, but right now it seems like those outfielders are named Yoshida, Duvall, Verdugo and Refsnyder. Of course Kike may also get some play there, but considering that he's currently slated to be the team's starting SS and the team has already committed to starter at-bats for Yoshida and Duvall, it wouldn't seem like he'd see too much action there. The only way that might change is if Verdugo is either traded (which wouldn't be shocking) or switched to a bench role (which seems unlikely).
Is/should the plan be to have Duvall as your primary CF? Rhetorical.
Per reports, Duvall chose the Red Sox because he was told he'd have a chance to start. So yes, it looks like he will be the starting CF unless somehow there is a roster shake-up that sees Verdugo leaving (opening up RF) and a new SS coming (so that Kike can return to CF).
But I'm guessing that neither happens and the current OF is the OF they start the season with.
Of course, that would not only mean Duvall is the CF but Verdugo ends up in RF. Why would the Sox do that? Well maybe they see Verdugo similarly to Yo La Tengo:
I think we are underestimating Verdugo. He was fine in Right Field prior to last season (when it appears he had an injury and/or lost some quickness due to bulking up). He is turning 27 this May, has shown the ability to play well in Boston, doesn't become a free agent until 2025, and his offensive stats were really good from June forward last year (.304/.356/.447 after the ASG). Cora lit a fire under him at the end of the season to come in to camp trimmed down. According to some tweets posted earlier, it sounds like he got the message.
 
Last edited:

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
interesting Twitter thread about Duvall. Not sure if the whole thing will be available in its entirety but mostly explains why Sox might believe Duvall can play CF:

View: https://twitter.com/rryanmedeiros/status/1615550491911405569?s=46&t=6FZqzb7EBJwroRzV9sUaPQ

Why the #RedSox think Adam Duvall can be their full-time CF (thread):

Boston has reportedly expressed serious interest in signing Duvall to play CF for the upcoming season.

But why? The 34-year-old has only made 75 appearances at the position in his entire professional career.

Duvall has proven that, on a rate basis, he is a very capable CF.

Is it sustainable over a full season? No way to know for sure until he gets a chance.

There have been no signs of decline in his speed despite him turning 34 this past September.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
I really don't think the Red Sox gave Justin Turner $22 million dollars to be the RH compliment to Casas at 1b, and I think we all hope that there won't be many 3b bats available. Turner got 532 ABs last year and I don't think there is any reason to think that he won't get just as many this coming year. After all, he is one of the best bats in the line-up and the single best RH hitter on the team.
it's also been reported that Duvall chose the Red Sox over the Mets because the Mets saw him as a 4th outfielder and the Sox were offering him a starting role. So yes, there will be at least 4 players getting regular ABs in the OF, but right now it seems like those outfielders are named Yoshida, Duvall, Verdugo and Refsnyder. Of course Kike may also get some play there, but considering that he's currently slated to be the team's starting SS and the team has already committed to starter at-bats for Yoshida and Duvall, it wouldn't seem like he'd see too much action there. The only way that might change is if Verdugo is either traded (which wouldn't be shocking) or switched to a bench role (which seems unlikely).

Per reports, Duvall chose the Red Sox because he was told he'd have a chance to start. So yes, it looks like he will be the starting CF unless somehow there is a roster shake-up that sees Verdugo leaving (opening up RF) and a new SS coming (so that Kike can return to CF).
But I'm guessing that neither happens and the current OF is the OF they start the season with.
Of course, that would not only mean Duvall is the CF but Verdugo ends up in RF. Why would the Sox do that? Well maybe they see Verdugo similarly to Yo La Tengo:
Turnerr is the primary DH. On the days that he plays first and the times that he may be needed at third Yoshida could slide into DH. I was really surprised that it needed explanation.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,657
The screw up with Bogaerts was not necessarily limited to this winter fwiw.
The screw up with Bogaerts was Dombrowski being too happy to give away opt-outs. Ian Cundall on a recent Sox Prospects podcast opined that this could have been bought out with another $15-20 million added to the extension, which still would have been a very team-friendly deal.
 

Blizzard of 1978

@drballs
Sep 12, 2022
503
New Hampshire
Two years ago led his Atlanta Braves to World Series win and hit 38 homers and led NL in Rbi with 113. Also won gold glove. Surprising this Duvall move not getting more love?
 
Last edited:

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,481
led his Atlanta Braves to World Series win
He had a .672 postseason OPS and a negative WPA. His three HRs came in two lopsided ATL wins and a first inning grand slam (off Framber Valdez, impressive) in an eventual 9-5 loss.
 

Blizzard of 1978

@drballs
Sep 12, 2022
503
New Hampshire
He had a .672 postseason OPS and a
negative WPA. His three HRs came in two lopsided ATL wins and a first inning grand slam (off Framber Valdez, impressive) in an eventual 9-5 loss.
He still a upgrade over JBJ and Duran. Lol . I really like the move. Turner and Duvall. I think Red Sox Nation will be surprised. I am much more optimistic than I was in September. Expect Red Sox and Yankees again. Expect Rays, Orioles and Jays
to take
step back. Should be a exciting year of baseball ⚾. Can't wait until spring training.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,207
Two years ago led his Atlanta Braves to World Series win and hit 38 homers and led NL in Rbi with 113. Also won gold glove. Surprising this Duvall move not getting more love?
Because he's not a very good baseball player? He led the NL in RBI while posting a 102 OPS+ - he was a barely average hitter in a good lineup. He's a poster child for why RBIs are not a particularly meaningful stat.

Last year he had an OPS of 87, which is substantially below average. He is at 97 for his career. Okay, he's better than JBJ and Duran, but talk about damning with faint praise.

By his own statements, there is some doubt that he will hold up to the demands of playing center field every day.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
13,805
Last year, Duvall got injured & had a 0.9 fWAR. If he does that again, he will be a mediocre but non-damaging signing.

The year before, Duvall had a 2.7 fWAR. If he does that again, he will be a great value, even if he hits whatever the $3m in incentives is for & they have to pay him $10m.

Fangraphs shows 7 different fWAR projections for him...

Zips DC: 2.2
The Bat X: 1.0
The Bat: 0.7
ATC: 0.9
FGDC: 1.4
Steamer: 0.5
Zips: 2.3

So average 1.3 fWAR, which would make it a fine signing, & it gives them the flexibility to play Hernandez in the IF if they need to, without tying up any long term salary. He's not an elite player, but he's a useful one.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,787
Boston, MA
Because he's not a very good baseball player? He led the NL in RBI while posting a 102 OPS+ - he was a barely average hitter in a good lineup. He's a poster child for why RBIs are not a particularly meaningful stat.
What's not meaningful about it? He drove in the most runs in the league that year because he was great with runners on base. His slash line with the bases empty was .172/.231/.354. It went to .293/.339/.649 with runners on and jumped up to .326/.367/.757 (a 1.124 OPS!) with runners in scoring position. He was the most clutch guy in the league and was extremely valuable to his team.

Is that some true clutch ability and something you can project going forward? Probably not (although he does have a .711 OPS with the bases empty, .803 with men on, and .822 with RISP in his career). But not a stat not being useful for a projection is not at all the same as not being meaningful.
 

effectivelywild

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
463
What's not meaningful about it? He drove in the most runs in the league that year because he was great with runners on base. His slash line with the bases empty was .172/.231/.354. It went to .293/.339/.649 with runners on and jumped up to .326/.367/.757 (a 1.124 OPS!) with runners in scoring position. He was the most clutch guy in the league and was extremely valuable to his team.

Is that some true clutch ability and something you can project going forward? Probably not (although he does have a .711 OPS with the bases empty, .803 with men on, and .822 with RISP in his career). But not a stat not being useful for a projection is not at all the same as not being meaningful.
FWIW, I did some analysis using regression analysis for every season for the past 10 years and of all of the stats, RBIs was the one that correlated the best with runs scored for every single season. I bet this would still hold true even if I went further back.



<before anyone points out the critical flaw in this analysis, that's the joke>
 

Niastri

Member
SoSH Member
What's not meaningful about it? He drove in the most runs in the league that year because he was great with runners on base. His slash line with the bases empty was .172/.231/.354. It went to .293/.339/.649 with runners on and jumped up to .326/.367/.757 (a 1.124 OPS!) with runners in scoring position. He was the most clutch guy in the league and was extremely valuable to his team.

Is that some true clutch ability and something you can project going forward? Probably not (although he does have a .711 OPS with the bases empty, .803 with men on, and .822 with RISP in his career). But not a stat not being useful for a projection is not at all the same as not being meaningful.
Does Duvall hit fastballs especially well? A lot of pitchers will throw more fastballs when guys are on base, because they're attempting to limit the risk of runners advancing from wild pitches or stolen bases.

His higher men on base numbers might reflect this difference?

His power vs. finesse numbers indicate the opposite, his ops against power pitchers is 626 vs. 828 for finesse.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
13,805
Does Duvall hit fastballs especially well? A lot of pitchers will throw more fastballs when guys are on base, because they're attempting to limit the risk of runners advancing from wild pitches or stolen bases.

His higher men on base numbers might reflect this difference?

His power vs. finesse numbers indicate the opposite, his ops against power pitchers is 626 vs. 828 for finesse.
Duvall actually crushes curveballs...unfortunately teams stopped throwing them to him last year lol

Curveballs per PA...

'21 0.407
'22 0.298
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,647
Interesting point in a new Duvall profile in The Athletic. He speculates that the pitch clock could have a downstream effect on injury prevention.

“I said it after ’21,” Kiké Hernández said of the season he moved full-time to center field. “After playing the outfield for the first time in my career every day, I didn’t realize how big of a toll it takes on your legs.”



As for having the endurance to play center on a regular basis, Duvall said he might actually have an X-factor in his favor this season. He’s been asked to play center field regularly in a season that’s introducing the pitch clock, and Duvall’s noticed the way the clock has sped-up games and shortened innings.

“I think the pace of play, it’s going to help because you’re on your feet less,” Duvall said. “And significantly less. I’m anxious to see how that plays a role in everybody staying healthy.”
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Interesting point in a new Duvall profile in The Athletic. He speculates that the pitch clock could have a downstream effect on injury prevention.

“I said it after ’21,” Kiké Hernández said of the season he moved full-time to center field. “After playing the outfield for the first time in my career every day, I didn’t realize how big of a toll it takes on your legs.”



As for having the endurance to play center on a regular basis, Duvall said he might actually have an X-factor in his favor this season. He’s been asked to play center field regularly in a season that’s introducing the pitch clock, and Duvall’s noticed the way the clock has sped-up games and shortened innings.

“I think the pace of play, it’s going to help because you’re on your feet less,” Duvall said. “And significantly less. I’m anxious to see how that plays a role in everybody
staying healthy.”
I could only read the snippets provided in your post. Does Duvall specifically mention injury prevention or staying healthy? In my mind the two are not exclusive to each other. I guess there is likely to be some benefit, but not sure how measurable it would be. Most if not all of the time saved would be time in between pitches when players are fairly inactive. I've no doubt that 10-20 minutes less on one's feet (especially on turf and during the hottest days of the season) will be beneficial especially when it comes to fatigue.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
13,477
Springfield, VA
Three games in and he's already at 0.6 fWAR. Currently at 1.957 OPS. At $7 million he could be the biggest bargain in the entire FA market.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,787
Boston, MA
Three games in and he's already at 0.6 fWAR. Currently at 1.957 OPS. At $7 million he could be the biggest bargain in the entire FA market.
I can't wait for Chaim to trade him for JBJ after the season.

If Duvall ends up having a decent offensive year, then Chaim was probably right to shift Kike to short and put him out there rather than keeping Kike in center and acquiring a noodle bat stopgap.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
5,828
Three games in and he's already at 0.6 fWAR. Currently at 1.957 OPS. At $7 million he could be the biggest bargain in the entire FA market.
Yup. He had only 29 XBH in 300ish PA last year and has 6 already in just 15 PA. He's produced a fifth of the bases in just 5% of the plate appearances.

On the other hand, he could hit 8 home runs this month and then seven the rest of the year. He could spend his last 200 ABs striking out forty percent of the time and popping out. It's good Rafaela, Duran and company are waiting in the wings in case he flames out spectacularly.

Regardless, the guy has had a wonderful start. Hoping we get a good Duvall season. 30ish home runs, an OBP of ~300.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,261
Yup. He had only 29 XBH in 300ish PA last year and has 6 already in just 15 PA. He's produced a fifth of the bases in just 5% of the plate appearances.

On the other hand, he could hit 8 home runs this month and then seven the rest of the year. He could spend his last 200 ABs striking out forty percent of the time and popping out. It's good Rafaela, Duran and company are waiting in the wings in case he flames out spectacularly.

Regardless, the guy has had a wonderful start. Hoping we get a good Duvall season. 30ish home runs, an OBP of ~300.
Duran.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,261
Thanks for the thoughtful reply!

The guy is a bad defensive centerfielder, but I still think he has the offensive tools to be a big league hitter. All I'm saying is it's good there's depth behind him.
just never thought I’d ever read his name in that Context.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,486
Yup. He had only 29 XBH in 300ish PA last year and has 6 already in just 15 PA. He's produced a fifth of the bases in just 5% of the plate appearances.
You say "only 29 XBH in 300 PA"....an XBH every 10 PAs isn't that bad.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Yup. He had only 29 XBH in 300ish PA last year and has 6 already in just 15 PA. He's produced a fifth of the bases in just 5% of the plate appearances.

On the other hand, he could hit 8 home runs this month and then seven the rest of the year. He could spend his last 200 ABs striking out forty percent of the time and popping out. It's good Rafaela, Duran and company are waiting in the wings in case he flames out spectacularly.

Regardless, the guy has had a wonderful start. Hoping we get a good Duvall season. 30ish home runs, an OBP of ~300.
I'm hoping we have a Mike Lowell ca 2006-2007 Fenway-aided resurgence season.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,540
Lowell I think was a far better hitter before coming to the Sox than Duvall has been throughout his career. Duvall is a really streaky hitter and always has been, it just comes down to whether or not the hot streaks are long enough to balance out the cold streaks. It's great he's off to an amazing start, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has a month where he hits like, .125 with 50 strikeouts.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,047
He is absolutely made for Fenway Park, which we knew coming into the season and was a big pat of why he made sense but great to see it actually playing out.

There is something to be said when you can give a hitter confidence and simplify the approach to "pull the ball hard". Pitchers will adjust and we will see what happens. But enjoy the at bats for now.

PS - Dever, Tuner, Yoshida have been putting up fantastic at bats in front of him and really worn out pitchers while getting on base. The line up is a real grind right now. Awesome to watch.

PSS - (It's early)
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
5,828
You say "only 29 XBH in 300 PA"....an XBH every 10 PAs isn't that bad.
True enough. But It's not great in the larger context of his skillet. Just wanted to emphasize how hot his start is exactly.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,261
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1644846865781760001


can’t confirm, but I think that’s fWAR. Which is funny because Fangraphs projected him for 0.6 on the year (which of course could still be accurate, but looks comedic so far)
Honest question because I do t understand any of the WAR stats at all… but would this mean that if Duvall goes hit less over his next 200-300 plate appearances andK’s or DP’s every time he still would have done better than predictions???? I’m skeptical of WAR and also likely just confused
 

azsoxpatsfan

Does not enjoy the go
SoSH Member
May 23, 2014
4,760
Honest question because I do t understand any of the WAR stats at all… but would this mean that if Duvall goes hit less over his next 200-300 plate appearances andK’s or DP’s every time he still would have done better than predictions???? I’m skeptical of WAR and also likely just confused
A player can lose WAR, so if Duval plays poorly the rest of the year and loses 0.5 war in that time, the projections will have been correct. FWIW, I love WAR but am really skeptical of the projection systems. I don’t think the models are accurate enough yet to really put much stock in, but they’re entertaining to look at when they’re way off
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,403
Rogers Park
Honest question because I do t understand any of the WAR stats at all… but would this mean that if Duvall goes hit less over his next 200-300 plate appearances andK’s or DP’s every time he still would have done better than predictions???? I’m skeptical of WAR and also likely just confused
Remember that WAR is relative to a baseline called replacement level.

So as playing time accrues, the replacement level against which a player is being measured rises — i.e. without the player you're measuring, you would have gotten some baseline contribution from some random AAAA player or waiver claim.

So it is wildly good to have 10 XBH in 7 games — as Duvall does — but it wouldn't be especially impressive to have 10 XBH in 70 games. The AAAA dude could probably do that given that many PAs. If Duvall went into a long slump his value above replacement would thus decline.
 

koufax32

He'll cry if he wants to...
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2006
9,071
Duval
Let the injury watch begin. That did not look good on TV. It would be really tough to lose him for any extended amount of time. IIRC, it’s the same wrist that required season ending surgery last year.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,300
Miami (oh, Miami!)
If Duvall is on the IL for any length of time, who should be called up? For an OF replacement who can handle CF, we have Duran and Hernandez. For a replacement for Hernandez we have. . .maybe Hamilton?
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
71,872
If Duvall is on the IL for any length of time, who should be called up? For an OF replacement who can handle CF, we have Duran and Hernandez. For a replacement for Hernandez we have. . .maybe Hamilton?
They should trade for Iggy and move Enrique to CF
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
7,986
If Duvall is on the IL for any length of time, who should be called up? For an OF replacement who can handle CF, we have Duran and Hernandez. For a replacement for Hernandez we have. . .maybe Hamilton?
When is Mondesi ready?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,761
If Duvall is on the IL for any length of time, who should be called up? For an OF replacement who can handle CF, we have Duran and Hernandez. For a replacement for Hernandez we have. . .maybe Hamilton?
Duran seems likely; he’s the only healthy OF available on the 40-man .
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
13,477
Springfield, VA
[nm wait too slow]
Probably Dalbec, with Arroyo getting some reps at short. Assuming that we'll see a mix of Tapia (Kike SS) or Yu Chang (Kike CF) most days.