SOSH Real Fantasy Draft: Draft Order, Rules, and Draft Thread
- Thread starter Scoops Bolling
- Start date
- Status
Yeah, so most of the relievers I was looking at went off the board. I had already instantly regretted my last pick, but now I think it is among my worst in the draft. I told myself I wouldn't worry about a lefty, and then I did. I understand how GMs destroy themselves, though at least it was only a reliever.
Sorry for the delay guys. Busy at work, so no pic and can't bold with my iPad.
First pick is Scott Hairston, bench.
He'll be able to back up all three outfield positions, though I have two players on the roster already who would be better on CF, and while last year was clearly a career year, I think his bat will be solid enough.
Second pick is another reliever. I'm going to take a chance on a guy who missed most of last year and who was replaced as the Sox' closer last year. If he returns to form I'll have a better closer than my closer and the back end of my pen will look really good. If not, well... then not.
Andrew Bailey, RP
I checked the list of starting outfielders and bench players and didn't see Hairston. I checked the list of relievers and didn't see Bailey. If either has been picked please point it out and I'll make a replacements pick as soon as I can. I don't want to hold up the draft any more than I have.
Edit: can someone please pm Dan? Thanks.
First pick is Scott Hairston, bench.
He'll be able to back up all three outfield positions, though I have two players on the roster already who would be better on CF, and while last year was clearly a career year, I think his bat will be solid enough.
Second pick is another reliever. I'm going to take a chance on a guy who missed most of last year and who was replaced as the Sox' closer last year. If he returns to form I'll have a better closer than my closer and the back end of my pen will look really good. If not, well... then not.
Andrew Bailey, RP
I checked the list of starting outfielders and bench players and didn't see Hairston. I checked the list of relievers and didn't see Bailey. If either has been picked please point it out and I'll make a replacements pick as soon as I can. I don't want to hold up the draft any more than I have.
Edit: can someone please pm Dan? Thanks.
Neither has been picked. I'm really, really surprised you took Bailey though, I had a couple names pegged that I was sure you would choose before him. I know he had a "freak" injury last year but between the previous injury history and him being really bad last season, I wouldn't have thought he'd go this early.
His offense is OBP based with little power, and his defense is okay, but he swings lefty and is still young. The Varmint Cong select Bryan Anderson, C
With the qualification that I'll probably be going more bullpen heavy than I planned, I think the hand-wringing about bullpen quality is a little overblown now. I think it's fair to say that all of the superlative RPs who don't have some huge knock against them (age mostly, but a terrible 2012, hugely declining peripherals, etc.) are gone at this point, but it seems to me that relief pitching is prone to having some big surprises and kind of evens out after a while.
Doing this now is tough since some names are still on the board that I shouldn't say, but I'm looking at the Top RPs from 2009-2012 by Fangraphs WAR as well as the RPs taken the last time this draft was done. I'll leave off the names in the spoilered chart. It seems like that, to an extent, RP performance can be projected over a longer period, but that it's not that easy to tell and that gems can be found late. Once you get into the next batch of RPs past the Top 25, it gets more difficult to predict and you have a substantial number of guys drafted later on who ended up performing rather well. There were also a notable number of bullpens in that draft who had their best RP in the BP5 or BP6 slot by the time the exercise ended.
(Fangraphs WAR Ranking) [Ranking Taken Among RPs]*
*The RP list does include a decent amount of pitchers turned SP, so it's not completely fair. If they were drafted as an SP, they'll be listed there. Inelgiible/Undrafted is pretty self-explanatory, some were ineligible (Aroldis, Kimbrel IIRC) and some were just undrafted. I'm going to spoiler the list for length.
Doing this now is tough since some names are still on the board that I shouldn't say, but I'm looking at the Top RPs from 2009-2012 by Fangraphs WAR as well as the RPs taken the last time this draft was done. I'll leave off the names in the spoilered chart. It seems like that, to an extent, RP performance can be projected over a longer period, but that it's not that easy to tell and that gems can be found late. Once you get into the next batch of RPs past the Top 25, it gets more difficult to predict and you have a substantial number of guys drafted later on who ended up performing rather well. There were also a notable number of bullpens in that draft who had their best RP in the BP5 or BP6 slot by the time the exercise ended.
(Fangraphs WAR Ranking) [Ranking Taken Among RPs]*
*The RP list does include a decent amount of pitchers turned SP, so it's not completely fair. If they were drafted as an SP, they'll be listed there. Inelgiible/Undrafted is pretty self-explanatory, some were ineligible (Aroldis, Kimbrel IIRC) and some were just undrafted. I'm going to spoiler the list for length.
(1st in FWAR) [30th RP taken]
(2nd) [3rd]
(3rd)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(4th)[86th SP]
(5th)[21st]
(6th)[142nd]
(7th)[129th]
(8th)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(9th)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(10th)[72nd]
(11th)[161st]
(12th)[19th]
(13th)[18th]
(14th)[23rd]
(15th)[128th]
(16th)[2nd]
(17th)[1st]
(18th)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(19th)[10th]
(20th)[22nd]
(21st)[16th]
(22nd)[46th]
(23rd)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(24th)[27th]
(25th)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(2nd) [3rd]
(3rd)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(4th)[86th SP]
(5th)[21st]
(6th)[142nd]
(7th)[129th]
(8th)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(9th)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(10th)[72nd]
(11th)[161st]
(12th)[19th]
(13th)[18th]
(14th)[23rd]
(15th)[128th]
(16th)[2nd]
(17th)[1st]
(18th)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(19th)[10th]
(20th)[22nd]
(21st)[16th]
(22nd)[46th]
(23rd)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
(24th)[27th]
(25th)[Ineligible/Undrafted]
Kimbrel was third, and the first ineligible/undrafted guy on the list. I should qualify that those draft positions were from the 2009 Real Fantasy draft. So for instance, Joakim Soria was the 1st RP taken in that draft in 2009 [1st] and ranked 17th in fWAR from 2009-2012 (17th).
I don't know why you put freak in quotes. His broken thumb is the definition of a freak injury. I has zero predictive value about his ability to stay on the mound.MakMan44 said:
Also, citing his 2012 is fairly useless. He threw 15 innings after missing the year with a freak injury. It was basically his spring training. He was still really good in 2011 and his walk rate, home run rate, FIP and xFIP were all steady from 2009-2011. His strike out rate has fluctuated but it came up in 2011 so it's certainly not declining yet.
Sure, he's a poor bet for 60-65 innings in any given year but that's why I drafted Janssen first. And part of the pick is that I'm at work and at that moment wasn't sure if I was going to get a moment to sit down and do some more in depth research at any point this morning, so I went with a guy I knew I wanted to take a chance on at some point in the next few rounds. Is it a reach? Might be a bit of one, but I wouldn't have been surprised if he got snagged by the time it got back to me either.
When I said reach, I meant that there's a couple relievers I had ahead of him. I think this is probably the right round for him though.
His stats in the his 15 innings though were pretty much in line with career norms though, outside of his BABIP & BB rate. He should be better and revert to closer to his average line though. I just wonder if he's going to be more an ERA around 3-4 guy than the 1-2 guy he was in his first couple seasons. It's not a bad pick by any means and I probably would've thought about him but there is some reason to pause.
EDIT: The only reason I put freak in quotes is because he probably would've gotten injured anyway given his history, just a bit of humor, you're absolutely right that it means nothing going forward
His stats in the his 15 innings though were pretty much in line with career norms though, outside of his BABIP & BB rate. He should be better and revert to closer to his average line though. I just wonder if he's going to be more an ERA around 3-4 guy than the 1-2 guy he was in his first couple seasons. It's not a bad pick by any means and I probably would've thought about him but there is some reason to pause.
EDIT: The only reason I put freak in quotes is because he probably would've gotten injured anyway given his history, just a bit of humor, you're absolutely right that it means nothing going forward
Actually, in addition to his BABIP and walk rates beings off, his home run rate was way above his career line, his GB% was down, and his strikeout percentage was 5% lower than his 2011 and 6% lower than his career mark. That's a big difference and a great example of how k/9 can be skewed.
I really don't think his stats from 2012 have any value in trying to guess what to expect going forward.
I really don't think his stats from 2012 have any value in trying to guess what to expect going forward.
MakMan44 said:
The reason I think it is a pretty bad pick is:
(1) I could have waited a few rounds to get him. I suspect at least one, but maybe two.
(2) It essentially used the platoon advantage as a crutch and I personally think that should be a marginal concern. This is partially why I did not wait. Sure, he is better against righties than some loogies, but he is not that good against righties. I doubt a manager would ever let him face a middle of the order righty. He'd have to come in against the bottom of the order righties, which means he would come in against bottom of the order lefties.
(3) In hindsight, and to some degree at the time, I thought I should have grabbed another pitcher. Particularly, I was looking at Betancourt. His quality has dipped and he is old, but I still could have gotten him and Burnett I suspect. That would be a better move.
I was not PM'd but luckily I checked in here.
As my fourth OF and poor man's Dave Roberts, I will take Rajai Davis.
As my fourth OF and poor man's Dave Roberts, I will take Rajai Davis.
Well he was pitching outside of Coliseum for the first time, so that spike in HR rate could continue. His GB% has also been going down over his career so again, could continue. The SO% probably was effected for the same reason that his BB% went up, so that's a fair point.Snodgrass'Muff said:
Don't get me wrong, I like him. He could be very successful this season.
Well, a couple of LOOGIES were grabbed around you so I don't know how far he would've dropped. Your 3rd point is probably true though, Betancourt probably was the smarter choice, not much you can do about it now.Alternate34 said:
The ground ball rate dropping coincides with him moving toward the fastball and away from the cutter and curve. So that appeared to be intentional. The reason I think that data point from 2012 is useless is that he threw pitches like it was 2009 again with a much lower fastball rate and much higher cutter and curve rates, but his GB/FB rate was no where near what he got in 2009... or in any other year of his career.MakMan44 said:
Between this and "Chris Herrmann, really, really good catcher", I'm beginning to think we have a really, really different idea of the meaning of this phrase.MakMan44 said:
On mobile, but I'm adding Brian Matusz, RP, to Andrew's roster. He will work out of the pen, and function as a
6th starter.
Someone please handle the PM.
6th starter.
Someone please handle the PM.
I'm going to take a chance that this guys ST numbers, which look pretty nice, are indicative of good things to come. Walks are probably always going to be a problem for him but I don't think he's going to be walking 15% of the batters he faces either.
The Arizona Long Balls select RP Brad Boxberger
Kelly Shoppach, C
Plays passable defense behind the plate and mashes the fuck out of lefties. Since I can't draft Doug Mirabelli I might as well grab his closest comp.
Miss ya big guy.
Plays passable defense behind the plate and mashes the fuck out of lefties. Since I can't draft Doug Mirabelli I might as well grab his closest comp.
Miss ya big guy.
Edward Mujica, RP (St. Louis)
Love this guy. Solid late inning reliever with a track record of success, now toiling in the place that understands and cares for short relievers more than any other. Career 304:63 K:BB who just gets outs.
BC100Y is probably sleeping, but PM sent anyway.
Love this guy. Solid late inning reliever with a track record of success, now toiling in the place that understands and cares for short relievers more than any other. Career 304:63 K:BB who just gets outs.
BC100Y is probably sleeping, but PM sent anyway.
Boxberger isn't terrible. He seems like he has potential. His stuff isn't overpowering, but he strikes out a lot and he doesn't give up the long ball. He needs to keep his walks down, but that's about it. Looks like he'll be an above average, or higher, reliever.MakMan44 said:
Sorry for the wait.
George Kontos, RP
Went back and forth a bit here, but little not to like about this guy. 27 years old, good strikeout, walk, HR and GB rates, effective against both righties and lefties, and his career ERA (2.54) is below his career FIP (3.03). The one issue might be that he doesn't have much high-lev experience, but I don't care too much about that. He'll close for my team.
edit: pm'd Scuba
George Kontos, RP
Went back and forth a bit here, but little not to like about this guy. 27 years old, good strikeout, walk, HR and GB rates, effective against both righties and lefties, and his career ERA (2.54) is below his career FIP (3.03). The one issue might be that he doesn't have much high-lev experience, but I don't care too much about that. He'll close for my team.
edit: pm'd Scuba
I don't think he's a bad pick although I would have taken Mujica before him (and maybe others, but I haven't looked deeply into the RP pool since my last pick). But I think between your comment about his spring training and Bailey's 2012 you're reading too much into small sample sizes.MakMan44 said:
I'm going to take a chance that this guys ST numbers, which look pretty nice, are indicative of good things to come. Walks are probably always going to be a problem for him but I don't think he's going to be walking 15% of the batters he faces either.
The Arizona Long Balls select RP Brad Boxberger
Well, I was in a bit of a rush to get off a pick (my GF was yelling at me and I didn't want to hold up the draft while I went out, I only just got home) so I looked over his stats from last year, saw the BB % & looked at his ST stats to see if it was better, which it was. Did not notice it was in only 5 innings though, so yeah SSS applies heavily.
Can I get me a proxy? I might be around to get my pick out tomorrow, but I will be travelling and teaching class tomorrow, and I want to keep this shit moving.
- Status