After finding themselves with that big run they seem to be lost again and going through the motions. I wasn't a fan of this team prior to the season and wouldn't be surprised if we already saw the best of the Bucks in December.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
classic behavior of someone that jacks up 3s with 0.1 left in games while up 10…. (Still mad)
Of the 3 early games today the one that stands out like Gheorghe Muresan is the 1pm tip with the Spurs in Cleveland. There has been a clear pattern, especially of late, where the Spurs only post a big number against the leagues bottom half of defensive teams. When they face a Top-10 defense we've seen them struggle to hit 100. They have scored 110+ against the Bucks, Blazers, Jazz and Mavs....but when matched up with the Celtics, Rockets, Clippers, Grizzlies, etc if they crack 100 it is by a bucket or two. I know this sound oversimplified but sometimes that is a real good thing.
Cleveland fits the mold of a Top-10 defensive team that plays at a Bottom-10 Pace. I don't know how this number is 233.5 (actually opened higher on overnight) with the Spurs stuck in a halfcourt game where they struggle to execute and a Cavs team that isn't explosive and have hit 120 primarily against the Hawks, Wiz, and Jazz.
U233.5 full game
U116 1H
This is one of those smash spots so yes, Under TT's are probably good too if you lean that way also but no real need to get cute.
Edit: Hurry, this number is already on the move.
Cleveland fits the mold of a Top-10 defensive team that plays at a Bottom-10 Pace. I don't know how this number is 233.5 (actually opened higher on overnight) with the Spurs stuck in a halfcourt game where they struggle to execute and a Cavs team that isn't explosive and have hit 120 primarily against the Hawks, Wiz, and Jazz.
U233.5 full game
U116 1H
This is one of those smash spots so yes, Under TT's are probably good too if you lean that way also but no real need to get cute.
Edit: Hurry, this number is already on the move.
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Yup. Got in at that too and looking to add if, hopefully, someone comes out hot early on and pushes the number up.
231 pretty much across the board. It's still 9 points from my number so still good here if anyone is just seeing this. Who knows how low it goes though. It still boggles my mind how such a large betting market such as the NBA can open so far from where the market has pushed this.
Noticed something interesting when betting the early games on FanDuel. The Nets game 1H seems pretty high comparatively.
Spurs/cavs: 1H O/U at 114.5 total game at 232.5
Nets/Blazers: 1H O/U at 115.5 total game at 226
pelicans/kings: 1H O/U at 115 total game at 235.5
The Memphis game later in the day has a similar total game line but us down at 112 for 1H. Just wonder if anyone knows why or if this is pretty normal.
Spurs/cavs: 1H O/U at 114.5 total game at 232.5
Nets/Blazers: 1H O/U at 115.5 total game at 226
pelicans/kings: 1H O/U at 115 total game at 235.5
The Memphis game later in the day has a similar total game line but us down at 112 for 1H. Just wonder if anyone knows why or if this is pretty normal.
Embiid leads the MVP race odds
BUT the Games Played clause may start impacting that. He's missed 8 games already and is 9 away from getting DQ'd
The 76ers have 8 back-to-backs left to be played. There are ways to skirt it but if Joel gets anything minor that knocks him out for 10-14 days it will get dicey.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38386013/how-nba-new-rules-resting-stars-work
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/
BUT the Games Played clause may start impacting that. He's missed 8 games already and is 9 away from getting DQ'd
The 76ers have 8 back-to-backs left to be played. There are ways to skirt it but if Joel gets anything minor that knocks him out for 10-14 days it will get dicey.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38386013/how-nba-new-rules-resting-stars-work
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/
Scary stuff for Joel. We know he won't make it past the 2nd round, so the MVP is his NBA Finals.
Would be sad for his feelings if he missed out on those awards: 82-Game Players Are People Too.
Very funny
My favorite "injury" forward gamble is ROTY. Chet & Wemby are far ahead of the competition, but I liked the idea of betting Jaquez at +4000. Pods/B Miller also could apply.
Obviously, the odds of both going down with injury & playing under 50 games are very, very low (less than .25% I guess). BUT they do find themselves under the rim quite often with athletic WINGS (think Nesmith) trying to dunk on their heads. I constantly hold my breath with our Unicorn (KP). Plus the Spurs will be ultra-conservative with Wemby.
1/3 into the season & that trade looks like a zero (then again I've wasted hundreds/thousands on dumber activities)
Note: there is no Games Played clause for ROTY.
Vince Carter and Patrick Ewing are tied for the fewest games by a Rookie of the Year in a season, with 50 games.
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/rookie-of-the-year/
Had already added a little live after 1Q so nothing else at the half. LeVert has 9 pts in the final :02 of the first and third quarters. We are getting worst of "make or miss" today but the pace is so perfect we are still a couple points ahead early 4Q.
Sometimes things aren't meant to be. Keldon misses that 3 w a min left and the game gets dribbled out for easy cover. Instead the upcoming foul fest is going to make this fly over. Oh well.
Easy win. 
Only the Spurs can mess up fouling, but also get a block, and throw it out of bounds unforced.
Only the Spurs can mess up fouling, but also get a block, and throw it out of bounds unforced.
Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.
Kudos to you, many don't want to learn how to fish.
More brutal 3-pt variance. Seems to be the thing today. Pels/Kings w 3 threes in final min of 1H and 17 threes in the 1H for the L.
Pels up 34 on Kings mid-3Q in the latters final game of their home stand. Assuming the slaughter continues the Pistons should be the recipient of an inspired effort by Sacramento to kick off the Kings 5 city in 8 nights road trip.
Two angles coming together here....good team on bounce back off blowout and their first game of road trip. Thinking this number is Kings -6.5 which is the half tick ahead of that key 7.
Two angles coming together here....good team on bounce back off blowout and their first game of road trip. Thinking this number is Kings -6.5 which is the half tick ahead of that key 7.
Totally agree with HRB (via Twitter) on Eagles -2.5 for NFL before that moves to -3 or -4 in the coming days.
Just an incredible day of NBA stupidity. 69 4Q pts to try and beat us.....and very easily could have. I hate 4Q blowouts like this it's like both sides of deep bench guys have an unwritten rule to not help or rotate and to make it a layup line/open 3's for them to get some numbers.
Completely agree. Also interesting that each game won one and lost one for the 1H and total game. Real good advice to bet the games with both.
I got 48 and love that no PI call when Knox was tackled twice before the ball arrived.
It's a tool to lower variance by splitting the wager. The early start 1H also perform very well. Actually a tad better than full game.
I took the under when it posted at 47.5, down to 43 this morning, which I was a bit surprised at.
Also have a few teaser combos featuring Eagles +4, Cle +4.5, Dal -0.5, Rams +10, Bills -2, Kc/mia under 54, Hou/Cle under 51. In combos of 3 team, 5 and 6. I like these for adding a bit of leverage that builds through the weekend which can lead to some awesome middles/hedging situations. If you can get some CLV on top of the teaser, it creates a huge window. That KC/Mia teased line is now 11 points above the current price. Rams are now 7 points, Cle 7 points
I've had two friends reach out over past week saying they received a $5k bonus offer w 100% match from DK asking me how to best utilize. If anyone received similar specifically from DK, Golden Nugget or Betway in NJ shoot me a PM.
Keep eye on this opener you FD guys.
Another game tonight with multiple angles is Houston +4, starting first game of road trip, in Miami on their first game back from road trip. My only hesitation to not make this more than a standard play is the South Beach Virus.
Hopefully Halliburton isn’t out too long. Hate to see injuries like that.
I did play the under aggressively (a HRB smash) when he went down at 254, 253 and 252.
edit - not looking great given the pace to start the 2nd half. Terrible read on the future pace.
edit 2 - 77 point 3rd quarter the killer there. Onto the next one.
I did play the under aggressively (a HRB smash) when he went down at 254, 253 and 252.
edit - not looking great given the pace to start the 2nd half. Terrible read on the future pace.
edit 2 - 77 point 3rd quarter the killer there. Onto the next one.
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I played Celtics ML +330 at the TO with 6:30 to go and down 5. Give me that price every day.
I was baited. Logged onto site at the timeout with plan to play anything +4 or better....then they throw +330 ML at me with no Hali in a 5-pt game and plenty of time to go. Grrrrr.
So there's an SGP I like tonight. 4 lines that have good projections.
I'm starting to wonder if it's better to break them up into different parlays with other games? Like, there's 2 overs and 1 under on the same team -- I feel like the parlays where it's 4 lines from 4 games hit more often when I break up the lines. Is this crazy?
I'm starting to wonder if it's better to break them up into different parlays with other games? Like, there's 2 overs and 1 under on the same team -- I feel like the parlays where it's 4 lines from 4 games hit more often when I break up the lines. Is this crazy?