Should the Sox sell high on Jarren Duran?

[kazuneko]

After an underwhelming showing in 2022 and 2021, Jarren Duran was one of the better stories of 2023. His dramatic gains with the bat were striking, jumping from a subpar .284 wOBA (in 223 ABs in 22') to a .354 wOBA (in 362 ABs in 23'). And he was dynamic on the base paths, showing a unique ability to stretch singles into doubles while swiping 24 bases in 26 attempts. In the end he finished with a remarkable 2.4 fWAR in an injury shortened season.
What's less clear is whether Duran's ascent is sustainable, with many of the projection systems publicly available predicting declines in 2024. Both Ariel Cohen's ATC projection system and Steamer predict Duran to be worth just 1.4 fWAR in 24' (with far more ABs). FGDC predicts 1.3 fWAR.
So if these projections are accurate, wouldn't it be best to sell high on Duran this offseason? I think this is a crucial question for Breslow. After all, success as a GM isn't just about who you acquire but who you decide to let go and when. If this is Duran's peak value, shouldn't they sell high when they still can?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

To sell high, there has to be a potential buyer who is valuing him higher than the Sox. I’m guessing that’s not the case. Hell, the fact that the Sox seem to be shopping him would make me concerned if I were on the other side. Given how he ended last season, it seems like it may be best to hold on and hope he rebuilds some value on the field, no?

I think if there was a trade to be made with him to return a SP, it would have already been done.

 

[YTF]

To sell high, there has to be a potential buyer who is valuing him higher than the Sox. I’m guessing that’s not the case. Hell, the fact that the Sox seem to be shopping him would make me concerned if I were on the other side. Given how he ended last season, it seems like it may be best to hold on and hope he rebuilds some value on the field, no?

I think if there was a trade to be made with him to return a SP, it would have already been done.

I think that the trade market for the types of starters the Sox might be interested in stalls until Montgomery and Snell find homes.

 

[jon abbey]

His home/road split in 2023 was huge:

Fenway: .910 OPS in 182 PAs
Everywhere else: .748 OPS in 180 PAs

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think that the trade market for the types of starters the Sox might be interested in stalls until Montgomery and Snell find homes.

Could be. The challenge is that by the team that market opens up, there may be no OF left to acquire to replace Duran. Guess as shall see; if they sign Duvall or something I imagine some other moves will have to follow.

 

[Rovin Romine]

To sell high, there has to be a potential buyer who is valuing him higher than the Sox.

That's the trick.

Also, right now the Sox don't really have his near-automatic steal speed elsewhere on the ML roster. It's kind of a no-brainer if he's the key player in a trade for starting pitching. . .but because his skill set (supposing it's viable in the majors) is unique on the Sox, they'd probably be hesitant to trade him for something that's more fungible, like a relief arm.

 

[billy ashley]

The case for keeping Duran is as follows:

• He does enough well that it's unlikely that he totally collapses in terms of value. He's an acceptable defensive CF who should be at least around league average offensively, given his batted ball data. Some will rightly point out that he overperformed his expected wOBA last year, but that's not unheard of for faster players. Still, even if he's just league average-ish offensively, that's a very valuable player given his slightly below average defense in CF
• He's a premier athlete.
• He's been forced to make several significant changes to his offensive approach over the years been successful (to a degree) in doing so.
• He's overcome a lot of adversity (the horrific fielding, his brutal offensive 2022).
• While he's not young, he's got a strange and delayed development story. He was a slap hitting middle infielder in college, converted to OF upon entering the system. As a draft prospect, the Sox basically bet on athleticism and had to transform almost everything he'd ever done as an amateur. I think this both speaks to the two points above, and also suggests that his development curve may be different than a more conventional prospect.
• Most teams are aware of the fact that he overperformed his expected wOBA based on the batted ball profile. While he's a valuable piece, I'm not convinced another team is going to view Duran as an acceptable centerpiece in a big trade.

I'm probably for keeping hold of Duran, unless some team out there thinks he's about to make another leap. I'm cautiously optimistic that he can make another leap, but you can't bank on it. More than likely, he's just a solid starting caliber outfielder (which is super valuable).

 

[kelpapa]

His home/road split in 2023 was huge:

Fenway: .910 OPS in 182 PAs
Everywhere else: .748 OPS in 180 PAs

Dudes got no chance at the Hall of Fame.

 

[CR67dream]

That's the trick.

Also, right now the Sox don't really have his near-automatic steal speed elsewhere on the ML roster. It's kind of a no-brainer if he's the key player in a trade for starting pitching. . .but because his skill set (supposing it's viable in the majors) is unique on the Sox, they'd probably be hesitant to trade him for something that's more fungible, like a relief arm.

Yeah, I voted keep him, but it really would depend on return. I just don't see him as a centerpiece for that kind of deal right now, hence the vote. I also think he's on the cusp of something pretty good, so no way I'm trading him for anything less.

 

[nvalvo]

This is a great question.

Points in favor:

• We are still a bit too left handed.
• Duran is probably overqualified for LF in Boston, but under qualified for the other OF positions.
• He had a crazy BABIP and overperformed his xWOBA last year
• O’Neill, Rafaela, and Anthony give us remarkable organizational depth in CF. Hell, Wilyer Abreu can fake it.

Points against:

• We’re not *that* left handed after adding Grissom and O’Neill.
• Duran became a much more efficient base stealer last season, another sign of his ability to learn and grow as a player.
• He has the profile (LD%, plus-plus speed) of a player who might be able to maintain a high BABIP.
• He’s not enough of a sure thing to really have huge trade value.

So I imagine I’d come down to other teams’ valuations. But if I’m Miami, say, I think I’d rather have Rafaela: more service time remaining, high floor, crazy ceiling.

 

[GB5]

Please add the fact that he is barely making any money in the category in favor of keeping him.

 

[nighthob]

Dudes got no chance at the Hall of Fame.

But an excellent shot of landing a 7/175 contract from the Yankees in free agency, which will make him the latest Sox legend.

 

[LogansDad]

Please add the fact that he is barely making any money in the category in favor of keeping him.

Devil's advocate: That's also what makes him one of the the Sox' better trade chips.

I am against moving him. I really don't think any team in the league is sold on him enough to make the return that much of an improvement somewhere else, BUT if he comes even in the same stratosphere of repeating his breakout last year he is the most dynamic player on the team. If he doesn't repeat last year, then he is a really fun #9 hitter who can wreak havoc on the bases when he does get on base.

 

[Kliq]

He's also one of the most exciting players to actually watch due to his speed and athleticism.

 

[radsoxfan]

I always find these questions mostly impossible to answer without some hypothetical trade or at least "value" placed on a player. Should the Red Sox trade him if another team view him as a 3-4 WAR guy (given he was 2.4 WAR in 102 games) with defensive upside? Almost certainly yes.

But is there a team that doesn't understand BABIP, his pre 2023 performance, and defensive shortcomings (despite speed)? Teams are smarter now and I doubt he has a ton of value at the moment.

Sell high? Sounds great.

Sell as some JAG? Meh. Probably just roll the dice and hope he can outperform expectations.

 

[mwonow]

He's also one of the most exciting players to actually watch due to his speed and athleticism.

Yeah - there are few enough reasons to get invested in the major league team without selling one of the few bright lights to come through the system. If a trade is a really clear W, great - else, let's please hold onto the homegrown folks if they perform at a ML level, which Duran clearly does.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Dudes got no chance at the Hall of Fame.

But, what is his road batting average?

 

[sezwho]

He's also one of the most exciting players to actually watch due to his speed and athleticism.

+1 this as well.

I voted keep, and assume there’s no SP deal where he’s a factor. My honest thought is for this team to compete over the next couple years, we’re dependent on lottery tickets like him paying off so we need to eat the risk not mitigate it.

 

[ehaz]

Don’t xwOBA and the related statcast figures incorporate the player’s sprint speed in addition to the batted ball data? It might still underrate the value of Duran’s speed but I don’t think his speed accounts for the discrepancy between expected vs actual stats as much as some might hope.

 

[Rovin Romine]

But, what is his road batting average?

More seriously, we really want to know his road OBP, since Cora uses him in the leadoff spot about half the time. His home/road splits are .379/.313. Which are good, and low for a leadoff man, respectively. He had mini-slumps in May and August before his injury.

Overall, if you look at his splits, nothing really jumps out at you. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=duranja01&year=2023&t=b

Sure, overall he has a home/road split, but it's not like the numbers are consistently low, or all his road trips were bad (indicating some kind of Fenway-only approach.) Per his gamelog, he had a very bad west coast trip against the Padres, LAA, and AZ. But IIRC he was being pitched to his existing swing and had to adjust. So I wouldn't really draw larger conclusions from his short season.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

More seriously, we really want to know his road OBP, since Cora uses him in the leadoff spot about half the time. His home/road splits are .379/.313. Which are good, and low for a leadoff man, respectively. He had mini-slumps in May and August before his injury.

Overall, if you look at his splits, nothing really jumps out at you. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=duranja01&year=2023&t=b

Sure, overall he has a home/road split, but it's not like the numbers are consistently low, or all his road trips were bad (indicating some kind of Fenway-only approach.) Per his gamelog, he had a very bad west coast trip against the Padres, LAA, and AZ. But IIRC he was being pitched to his existing swing and had to adjust. So I wouldn't really draw larger conclusions from his short season.

Sorry, my post was a joking reference to something said about Todd Helton in the Hall of Fame thread.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

I voted trade Duran, but not really for the reason listed. I think there is enough in the bat to make him a starting caliber outfielder, he just isn't a very good fit for the Red Sox in particular. I don't believe he will ever be anything more than slightly below average defensively in CF, but a player with his speed is kind of wasted in front of the monster. He also doesn't have the power you would typically want in a LF. I think the total package in CF is ok, we also have Rafaela and Anthony coming up behind him and O'Neill (and Rafaela) that could cover CF this year. He would seem to be more valuable to a team with a big outfield that could play him in left. At the beginning of the offseason I thought a trade with Seattle for one of their young starters made sense for both teams, but they are apparently uninterested.

If no one values Duran as a starter then I would say just keep him and hope the defense improves or the bat does not decline too much.

Edit - forgot to add that he is another lefty bat for a team that really needs RHH

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I voted to keep him and he's a guy I want to punch in the throat. Last season when he played well, the Sox played well. Probably mostly correlation but I can't help but shake the feeling that there was SOME causation there. He brought some crazy high energy that I hadn't seen since the days of the Killer B's (there's was more on defense) that could light a fire under the whole team.
Will he be as good as his hot streak? Probably not. I think he can provide way above average defense in LF, adequate/average in CF (I'd like to see a Duran/Rafaela platoon there) and something close to a .780 OPS but with lots of stolen bases (how does that get figured into OPS?? when the base runner moves to 2B after getting just a single on the following pitch?) and a disrupter to the opposing pitching staff.
Also... even though I want to punch the guy in the throat... I've also softened on him after his struggles and openness about them. Very admirable.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I voted to keep him, at least based on some plausible returns out there. I'd rather see what he, Rafaela and Abreu have as opposed to signing any more one year OFs (and I really have no desire to see consistent at bats from O'Neill or Refsnyder, though we probably will).

All that said, if one could trade him for roughly "equal" or slightly below equal controllable starting pitching, I'd make that move in a second.

As an example, BTV has a swap of Duran for Woo as a minor overpay, but I'd trade Duran for Woo (or similar). I wouldn't trade Duran for more prospects (the way I hope we do Jansen, Martin and if not extended Pivetta).

 

[geoflin]

I voted to trade him but it really depends on whether some other team values him highly enough to trade back something worthwhile. I wouldn't trade him for a low level prospect, I'd love to trade him for Luzardo. These are extreme examples, neither will happen, the return would be somewhere in between. So yes, I'd be open to trading him but only for a reasonable return. I'd have to know specifics before having a more detailed opinion.

 

[YTF]

IMO, at least ATM, he's likely more valuable as part of a package rather than as a stand alone swap.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

I've said in other threads that Duran makes little sense as a long-term building block given the state of the organization. I recognize his strengths as a hitter and on the basepaths, but a left-handed hitter whose best position is left field creates a bit of a positional roadblock with a future core of Teel (L), Casas (L), Mayer (L), Devers (L), Anthony (L), and Yoshida (L). The fact that Rafaela and Anthony are both better defenders than Duran is in center only adds to my belief that his value to the organization is as a trading chip this offseason.

 

[chawson]

I voted trade Duran, but not really for the reason listed. I think there is enough in the bat to make him a starting caliber outfielder, he just isn't a very good fit for the Red Sox in particular. I don't believe he will ever be anything more than slightly below average defensively in CF, but a player with his speed is kind of wasted in front of the monster. He also doesn't have the power you would typically want in a LF. I think the total package in CF is ok, we also have Rafaela and Anthony coming up behind him and O'Neill (and Rafaela) that could cover CF this year. He would seem to be more valuable to a team with a big outfield that could play him in left. At the beginning of the offseason I thought a trade with Seattle for one of their young starters made sense for both teams, but they are apparently uninterested.

If no one values Duran as a starter then I would say just keep him and hope the defense improves or the bat does not decline too much.

Edit - forgot to add that he is another lefty bat for a team that really needs RHH

This is pretty close to where I'm at. I like him, certainly a lot more than I did last year at this time. But if the Sox believe Anthony's a center fielder the front half of his career, or Rafaela, then it seems likely he's more valuable to another team than ours.

I too thought Seattle was a great landing spot for him before they grabbed Luke Raley. Now I'm not so sure, though I will say that San Diego has an absolute chasm between LF-CF, and Duran's home town is about an hour and a half from there.

 

[TomRicardo]

This is pretty close to where I'm at. I like him, certainly a lot more than I did last year at this time. But if the Sox believe Anthony's a center fielder the front half of his career, or Rafaela, then it seems likely he's more valuable to another team than ours.

I too thought Seattle was a great landing spot for him before they grabbed Luke Raley. Now I'm not so sure, though I will say that San Diego has an absolute chasm between LF-CF, and Duran's home town is about an hour and a half from there.

The Red Sox shouldn't be making personnel decisions based on a guy that had 45 PA in AA. I don't think there is a market for Duran right now. This thread doesn't make any sense. If you were selling Duran you would have done it around the Winter Meetings. Right now any team that would potentially in market for Duran is waiting to see what happens with Bellinger before they trade out any real assets.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The Red Sox shouldn't be making personnel decisions based on a guy that had 45 PA in AA. I don't think there is a market for Duran right now. This thread doesn't make any sense. If you were selling Duran you would have done it around the Winter Meetings. Right now any team that would potentially in market for Duran is waiting to see what happens with Bellinger before they trade out any real assets.

There's always a constant market for anyone depending on how lopsided the deal is.

 

[OCD SS]

I voted “sell high”, I just don’t think there’s a market for him, so they may well as well keep him.

He looks like a guy you play while he’s cheap and non-tender when he gets expensive. Luckily it looks like the Sox will get his prime years for not too much, but we’ll just have to see how good he winds up being in that stretch …

 

[chawson]

The Red Sox shouldn't be making personnel decisions based on a guy that had 45 PA in AA. I don't think there is a market for Duran right now. This thread doesn't make any sense. If you were selling Duran you would have done it around the Winter Meetings. Right now any team that would potentially in market for Duran is waiting to see what happens with Bellinger before they trade out any real assets.

And I think none of the five lines you've written make any sense. The Red Sox have a capable center fielder on the 26-man roster right now in Tyler O'Neill, and another with MLB experience in Rafaela.

I didn't make the thread, but there's been plenty to support the idea that the Red Sox plan to trade from outfield depth, should they sign another bat. Breslow has said many many many times that he plans to acquire another bat and plans to improve the team through trades. He made three of them in short order before this long stretch of waiting out Boras's clients.

Totally fine to think there's no market for Duran. Who's to say how other teams value him. But I think you'd need to do some work to prove that if you're trying to forestall any conversation about it. Implying that trades occur nearly exclusively at the Winter Meetings ignores the situation this offseason. Every reporter is candid about how painstakingly slow this offseason has been. There's still about 35-40 percent of the Top 50 free agents yet to sign. Trades typically pick up after that.

In general I think everyone seized by agita over anything Red Sox related over the last few weeks should recognize that this particular mid-January is different, relatively speaking, from last year's mid-January, or the mid-Januaries of years past. And above all, we should consider the source. If these reporters are hearing from industry sources that the Red Sox won't spend, consider the source. It's Scott Boras. I agree the Red Sox put themselves in a bad spot by loudly crowing that they are going to reverse their fortunes, because it gave Boras all the incentive in the world to pressure them, and pressure a young CBO with an implicit mandate to act differently from his predecessor, by making it seem untrue.

 

[I Miss Maalox]

Dudes got no chance at the Hall of Fame.

Yeah, I voted keep him, but it really would depend on return. I just don't see him as a centerpiece for that kind of deal right now, hence the vote. I also think he's on the cusp of something pretty good, so no way I'm trading him for anything less.

True he has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but he does have a decent shot at the Hall of Pretty Good.
The guy has pretty much exceeded expectations his whole career, except for the fact that he seems to have taken a while to adjust to higher levels of competition.
Last year he clearly made the adjustment to major league competition.
He's worked hard on improving his hitting and fielding, and he's got the mindset to keep getting better.
He's become a line drive machine. I want to hold on to a guy like that.

 

[TomRicardo]

There's always a constant market for anyone depending on how lopsided the deal is.

How is that selling high?

 

[Rovin Romine]

How is that selling high?

I said there was always a market. I didn't say anything about selling high or low.

That said, it would be selling high if the perceived value of Duran is at or near its maximum. Like Bobby Dalbec in 2020. Maybe he does not get you a lot, but he gets you something. Later. . .perhaps not so much.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

My preference would be to keep him. Speed kills. And if he can keep up the line drives and taking the extra base, he'll be a solid player - I see improvements in his defense (better routes as he gets more experience in the OF).

That being said, if they could make him part of a trade package for a controllable SP like Gilbert or Luzardo, I'd do that. But if that deal were there it would probably already have been done, unless the teams on the other side are just holding out to see if they can get more once Snell and Montgomery are off the FA market..

 

[YTF]

My preference would be to keep him. Speed kills. And if he can keep up the line drives and taking the extra base, he'll be a solid player - I see improvements in his defense (better routes as he gets more experience in the OF).

That being said, if they could make him part of a trade package for a controllable SP like Gilbert or Luzardo, I'd do that. But if that deal were there it would probably already have been done, unless the teams on the other side are just holding out to see if they can get more once Snell and Montgomery are off the FA market..

I think the latter may be the case as those two teams are among the very few who seem to have young, controlled pitching that they could afford to part with.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I'm not sure dealing Duran now nets you a significant rotation piece. If he can be the biggest piece in a trade for a Luzardo or Gilbert, yeah, sell high, do it yesterday. I just don't think his value is there yet. But if he's able to follow-up last year's numbers with a full season and build on what he did, he's probably someone who can headline a deal for a good young, cost-controlled starter. He's still cheap and his game is geared towards today's game with the emphasis on speed. Let him run wild for a full season and then think about trading him. Waiting also gives the Sox the chance to see who they want to keep in CF long term between Duran and Rafaela.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Depends on what you would get for him - which I suspect is not much.
He had a BABIP of .381 last year - no way that holds up.
I would actually try to find AB's for both him and Abreu because neither is worth much right now.

 

[TomRicardo]

And I think none of the five lines you've written make any sense. The Red Sox have a capable center fielder on the 26-man roster right now in Tyler O'Neill, and another with MLB experience in Rafaela.

I didn't make the thread, but there's been plenty to support the idea that the Red Sox plan to trade from outfield depth, should they sign another bat. Breslow has said many many many times that he plans to acquire another bat and plans to improve the team through trades. He made three of them in short order before this long stretch of waiting out Boras's clients.

Totally fine to think there's no market for Duran. Who's to say how other teams value him. But I think you'd need to do some work to prove that if you're trying to forestall any conversation about it. Implying that trades occur nearly exclusively at the Winter Meetings ignores the situation this offseason. Every reporter is candid about how painstakingly slow this offseason has been. There's still about 35-40 percent of the Top 50 free agents yet to sign. Trades typically pick up after that.

In general I think everyone seized by agita over anything Red Sox related over the last few weeks should recognize that this particular mid-January is different, relatively speaking, from last year's mid-January, or the mid-Januaries of years past. And above all, we should consider the source. If these reporters are hearing from industry sources that the Red Sox won't spend, consider the source. It's Scott Boras. I agree the Red Sox put themselves in a bad spot by loudly crowing that they are going to reverse their fortunes, because it gave Boras all the incentive in the world to pressure them, and pressure a young CBO with an implicit mandate to act differently from his predecessor, by making it seem untrue.

What rumor do you have that anyone is discussing Duran? Do you have a source? Because if you are the source just randomly rambling about sources, you are the best gimmick account this site has ever seen.

How many teams are looking for LHH CF if they can't or won't get Bellinger?

Houston
Toronto (Just gave 11 million to Kiermaier so it would be an upgrade at midseaosn more likely)
Philadelphia
Arizona

That is the market. Houston, Philly, and Arizona have guys who can play D that don't have the bat Duran does but once again all these guys would probably hold on to what they have. That said Houston is your most likely buyer. Maybe something like Pivetta, Duran, and Yorke for Brown or Araghetti or a lesser package for McCullers would be at least somethign to throw out but once again no sources.

 

[mauf]

The OP rests on a false premise. Duran is a 27-year old who is a terrible defender and is projected to post a mid-700s OPS. Of course you wouldn’t hesitate to move him if you could make a deal that helps the team. But we’re well past the days when you could count on finding a trade partner that would take his BABIP-fueled 2023 numbers at face value or overvalue his ability to steal bases.

 

[chawson]

What rumor do you have that anyone is discussing Duran? Do you have a source? Because if you are the source just randomly rambling about sources, you are the best gimmick account this site has ever seen.

How many teams are looking for LHH CF if they can't or won't get Bellinger?

Houston
Toronto (Just gave 11 million to Kiermaier so it would be an upgrade at midseaosn more likely)
Philadelphia
Arizona

That is the market. Houston, Philly, and Arizona have guys who can play D that don't have the bat Duran does but once again all these guys would probably hold on to what they have. That said Houston is your most likely buyer. Maybe something like Pivetta, Duran, and Yorke for Brown or Araghetti or a lesser package for McCullers would be at least somethign to throw out but once again no sources.

You could try doing a simple google search on this before wasting my time.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/29/sports/adding-righthander-lucas-giolito-could-be-first-move-fortify-red-sox-starting-rotation/?event=event25

Alex Speier:
And according to major league sources, the Sox have continued to explore trades involving their group of young outfielders — they currently have lefthanded hitters Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu, as well as righthanded hitters Tyler O’Neill, Rob Refsnyder, and Ceddanne Rafaela. If the Sox deal from that group to add a pitcher, they could then return to the free-agent market to add a bat such as slugger Teoscar Hernández, in whom the team remains interested even after signing Giolito.

Are you familiar with the San Diego Padres? I mentioned them in my last post. They've got a couple of JAGS slated for left and center field in Cal Mitchell and Jose Azocar, plus noted financial issues. The Royals have Kyle Isbel handling center and may want to upgrade. The Guardians may want to move on from their CF, who has been the worst hitting regular in baseball the last two years.

 

[jteders1]

I voted to trade him. He turns 28 this season. He is what he is. Based on his profile last year, it's highly unlikely that he duplicates his success. Could he settle into a nice 1-1.5 win player..sure, but there are better internal candidates to handle CF starting next year, hell Rafela could give the 1.5 win just with his defense. Holding on to borderline prospects like this is how you get people on this board clamoring for Bobby Dalbec to be on the team when it's been 3 seasons since he's done anything. If Duran can be included in a trade, do it, because his value will never be higher and is much more likely to go down, than up.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I voted to trade him. He turns 28 this season. He is what he is. Based on his profile last year, it's highly unlikely that he duplicates his success. Could he settle into a nice 1-1.5 win player..sure, but there are better internal candidates to handle CF starting next year, hell Rafela could give the 1.5 win just with his defense. Holding on to borderline prospects like this is how you get people on this board clamoring for Bobby Dalbec to be on the team when it's been 3 seasons since he's done anything. If Duran can be included in a trade, do it, because his value will never be higher and is much more likely to go down, than up.

I think "He is what he is" might be the exact opposite of how I feel about Duran. I have no idea what he is. His profile has changed a dozen times the last 5 years.

If "he is what he is" means he's the following then in no why in hell would I trade him for anything other than top end players...

• 46% hard hit rate
• 25% K rate
• 97th Percentile base runner value
• wOBA .354
• wRC+ 120

Those are incredibly valuable numbers. Honestly, they aren't much different from Randy Arozarena. Pretty comparable.

 

[simplicio]

I think there's no way he keeps up his performance from last year; it's merely a question of whether he reverts to averageish or awful.

Breslow's moves so far have been for guys on the cusp or a year away; I'd be totally fine if he sold Duran for a guy that just showed promise in AA last year or something.

 

[TomRicardo]

You could try doing a simple google search on this before wasting my time.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/29/sports/adding-righthander-lucas-giolito-could-be-first-move-fortify-red-sox-starting-rotation/?event=event25

Why would I think you were referring to rumor from a month ago that doesn't specifically talk about Jarren Duran to make room to sign a player that signed with another team was relevant to asking if there was specific rumor alluding to Duran's value, Pepe Silvie?

And before I "waste more of your time" by actually goggle searching to match your own requirement, you can check aggregating site MLBTradeRumors to know that was last time any major sport writer even mentioned Duran and trade, this offseason. In fact it was the only time.

If you are going to be insufferable at least have some idea what you are talking about. No one likes an insufferable clown.

 

[ShaneTrot]

The team was 54-48 with Durran in the lineup, his last game was August 20th. The Sox went 8-19 in September, < 0.300 baseball. The offense was terrible in September, they scored 3 runs or fewer in 15 games. There were mitigating factors; Casas was shut down in mid-September, Turner was bad because he was fighting through injury (0.580 OPS in 105 PA), and they got nothing out of Wong, Verdugo, and Story. Durran was streaky in 2023 but when he was going the Sox were good. This team lacks athleticism, and that seems to be his best trait.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

If you can package him for someone like Luzardo, etc, do it. I doubt you’d get anything of significance in a 1:1 trade.

 

[Rasputin]

I have two thoughts on this matter.

One, I don't think it makes sense to trade exciting young players unless you're extremely sure that the return will make a post season difference. I don't really see a scenario where that works here.

Two, I don't think it makes sense to trade exciting young players unless you're very close to being a legitimate world series candidate and unless there's a front line pitcher coming in that we don't know about, we're short of that.

Bonus thought: I'm reminded of the saying that bad teams look at what players can't do and good teams look at what they can. When someone has a single exceptional skill, I'd like to keep that guy around if at all possible. Duran has a role on a World Series winning team. That might just be fifth outfielder/pinch runner, but it might be more. If you're in a Dave Roberts situation and you look at a bench of the entire Red Sox organization, there aren't that many guys you'd rather pinch run with.

 

[trs]

Theoretically, you would "sell high" on pretty much anyone, no? If someone is willing to offer you more value than you attribute to a player, then you make the deal. Of course how one team values a player will frequently by different than how another team does, making trades in general a worthwhile pursuit.

In terms of what Duran brings or will bring to the Sox, I think, as others have said, that he will continue to post high BABIP numbers consistently, but also a decent OPS despite not hitting many homers or walking at a high rate. I see it fueled by that BABIP and his ability to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples with his footspeed. That won't last forever, and it might make him more injury-prone as he'll be in full-sprint mode more than someone who doesn't rely on beating out or stretching hits, but why not get fun, productive, and unique (in this day) production on the cheap?

Unless of course some other team overvalues him. Then you move him.