Should the Sox sell high on Jarren Duran?

Should the Sox trade or keep or trade Jarren Duran?

  • Keep Duran - he showed too much in 23' to give up on him now

    Votes: 156 49.5%
  • Trade Duran - last year's performance is unsustainable and his trade value will never be higher.

    Votes: 159 50.5%

  • Total voters
    315

SouthernBoSox

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Jul 23, 2005
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Unless he forces the issue in ST, I’d prefer to see Rafaela working on the strike zone in Worcester. Defensively, my hope is that Story stabilizes the IF with Grissom being competent at 2B, Casas helping his teammates at 1B, and Devers staying out of his own head.
Oh I’m not saying it’s obviously the best path. I am bearish on Rafaela’s bat.

But you could fix the defense immediately. It’s available
 

pjheff

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Jan 4, 2003
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Oh I’m not saying it’s obviously the best path. I am bearish on Rafaela’s bat.

But you could fix the defense immediately. It’s available
Without getting into defensive metrics, did anyone really think that OF defense was this team’s Achilles heel last year? Verdugo was good in RF. Duran was meh in center. Yoshida was below average in LF where it doesn’t matter as much (in at least half your games).

I thought the IF defense was far more problematic, with instability at both SS and 2B alongside a rookie at 1B and a Devers meltdown after May. I don’t think that Rafaela could fix the defense immediately, but hopefully Story anchoring the unit can with consistency from Grissom and improvement from Casas.
 

GB5

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Aug 26, 2013
644
I see a lot of…if he gets hot at the start of the season, then trade him at the deadline..

is there any chance that if he gets hot in the first half, combined with last year that maybe you want to keep as a building block. Maybe he is the player he would be showing over the last 1.5 seasons!
 

walt in maryland

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Jul 16, 2005
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I see a lot of…if he gets hot at the start of the season, then trade him at the deadline..

is there any chance that if he gets hot in the first half, combined with last year that maybe you want to keep as a building block. Maybe he is the player he would be showing over the last 1.5 seasons!
Maybe, but more likely he isn't. He's significantly older than Rafaela, Abreu and Anthony, and I've given up on the notion that he can be even an average defensive center fielder. He's a left fielder, if we're being honest.

A lot of his offensive numbers were the result of a ridiculously high BABIP, and he had significant home-road splits. He's been prone to lengthy slumps, and doesn't project to hit more than 15-20 HRs.

A good player, but definitely the guy to trade if you're the Sox.
 
Feb 9, 2024
10
This is technically my first post as DLowe 04 Unsung Hero, but I was previously a member under a different name that had to do with Pedro, but I forgot exactly what it was because I hadn't logged in in years. I have been lurking since, but really wanted to get involved in some discussions, so I'm back under a new name. Anyway, I am one who thinks that we should keep Duran. I know his BABIP was ridiculously high last year, but because of his speed, he can beat out infield hits and possibly keep it up quite high. He's not a superstar, but our offense was a lot better and a lot more exciting when he was healthy. I don't understand how so many fans get excited about giving young players a chance and then once they get a chance, we look to replace them or find reasons why they can't keep it up. He's not a true CF....true. But he makes our offense go. In this new version of baseball with no shifts and an emphasis on the running game, he is our speed. He makes our offense go. Keep the kid and maybe he becomes our next Ellsbury, who was pretty darn good as a leadoff hitter until he went to the MFY.
 

tbrown_01923

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Sep 29, 2006
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The other way to consider him is at his career averages. His OPS+ is 96 (improving each of the three years, even there is some regression from 2023's performance), with better than average base running, and perhaps improving defense in center?

I am open to trading him, but see that maybe there is something worth keeping while cheap...
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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The Padres just signed Jurickson Profar, so that alleviates their need for OF a bit (but not fully).
 

chrisfont9

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This is technically my first post as DLowe 04 Unsung Hero, but I was previously a member under a different name that had to do with Pedro, but I forgot exactly what it was because I hadn't logged in in years. I have been lurking since, but really wanted to get involved in some discussions, so I'm back under a new name. Anyway, I am one who thinks that we should keep Duran. I know his BABIP was ridiculously high last year, but because of his speed, he can beat out infield hits and possibly keep it up quite high. He's not a superstar, but our offense was a lot better and a lot more exciting when he was healthy. I don't understand how so many fans get excited about giving young players a chance and then once they get a chance, we look to replace them or find reasons why they can't keep it up. He's not a true CF....true. But he makes our offense go. In this new version of baseball with no shifts and an emphasis on the running game, he is our speed. He makes our offense go. Keep the kid and maybe he becomes our next Ellsbury, who was pretty darn good as a leadoff hitter until he went to the MFY.
It boils down to the tension between winning now and letting guys develop. It's easier to imagine him falling off, for the people who think we should trade him, and the numbers suggest it's possible, but IMO it's too static a view. Players keep developing, if you let them, and it's not always an easy choice, but for a team who isn't trying to put the final pieces together for a title run, it's exactly what we should be focusing on.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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The problem for me is he waited till his age 26 season to look intriguing, and now we're hoping he can continue to progress but at a time where we're expecting to see age-related decline start to set in on his carrying speed tool. If he'd shown up like that 3 years ago it would be a very different conversation.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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The problem for me is he waited till his age 26 season to look intriguing, and now we're hoping he can continue to progress but at a time where we're expecting to see age-related decline start to set in on his carrying speed tool. If he'd shown up like that 3 years ago it would be a very different conversation.
Well that's also sort of the perfect time frame for (hopefully....) Bleis developing too, so Duran's best projectible years would still be team control years and if he does well, it only creates a good situation for the Sox.
Dreaming of a future long term outfield of Bleis in RF, Rafaela in CF and Anthony in RF with Abreu as the 4th OF'er... right?
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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I'd take that in a heartbeat if only for the implication that all 4 can be successful major league players.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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I'd take that in a heartbeat if only for the implication that all 4 can be successful major league players.
Of course they’re all hitting their ceilings! Rafaela is JBJ2.0 out there but also swiping 30 bags and scoring on hits that normally would just bring guys around to 3B.
Anthony and Bleis are the Rice/Dewey at the corners.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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The problem for me is he waited till his age 26 season to look intriguing, and now we're hoping he can continue to progress but at a time where we're expecting to see age-related decline start to set in on his carrying speed tool. If he'd shown up like that 3 years ago it would be a very different conversation.
Well, he did show up 3 years ago — i.e., he had his first new swing breakout during 2020 at the alternate site. If he'd done that in, say, Portland, we'd have more data.