Oh I’m not saying it’s obviously the best path. I am bearish on Rafaela’s bat.
But you could fix the defense immediately. It’s available
Should the Sox sell high on Jarren Duran?
- Thread starter kazuneko
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But you could fix the defense immediately. It’s available
Without getting into defensive metrics, did anyone really think that OF defense was this team’s Achilles heel last year? Verdugo was good in RF. Duran was meh in center. Yoshida was below average in LF where it doesn’t matter as much (in at least half your games).
I thought the IF defense was far more problematic, with instability at both SS and 2B alongside a rookie at 1B and a Devers meltdown after May. I don’t think that Rafaela could fix the defense immediately, but hopefully Story anchoring the unit can with consistency from Grissom and improvement from Casas.
I see a lot of…if he gets hot at the start of the season, then trade him at the deadline..
is there any chance that if he gets hot in the first half, combined with last year that maybe you want to keep as a building block. Maybe he is the player he would be showing over the last 1.5 seasons!
is there any chance that if he gets hot in the first half, combined with last year that maybe you want to keep as a building block. Maybe he is the player he would be showing over the last 1.5 seasons!
Maybe, but more likely he isn't. He's significantly older than Rafaela, Abreu and Anthony, and I've given up on the notion that he can be even an average defensive center fielder. He's a left fielder, if we're being honest.
A lot of his offensive numbers were the result of a ridiculously high BABIP, and he had significant home-road splits. He's been prone to lengthy slumps, and doesn't project to hit more than 15-20 HRs.
A good player, but definitely the guy to trade if you're the Sox.
This is technically my first post as DLowe 04 Unsung Hero, but I was previously a member under a different name that had to do with Pedro, but I forgot exactly what it was because I hadn't logged in in years. I have been lurking since, but really wanted to get involved in some discussions, so I'm back under a new name. Anyway, I am one who thinks that we should keep Duran. I know his BABIP was ridiculously high last year, but because of his speed, he can beat out infield hits and possibly keep it up quite high. He's not a superstar, but our offense was a lot better and a lot more exciting when he was healthy. I don't understand how so many fans get excited about giving young players a chance and then once they get a chance, we look to replace them or find reasons why they can't keep it up. He's not a true CF....true. But he makes our offense go. In this new version of baseball with no shifts and an emphasis on the running game, he is our speed. He makes our offense go. Keep the kid and maybe he becomes our next Ellsbury, who was pretty darn good as a leadoff hitter until he went to the MFY.
The other way to consider him is at his career averages. His OPS+ is 96 (improving each of the three years, even there is some regression from 2023's performance), with better than average base running, and perhaps improving defense in center?
I am open to trading him, but see that maybe there is something worth keeping while cheap...
I am open to trading him, but see that maybe there is something worth keeping while cheap...
It boils down to the tension between winning now and letting guys develop. It's easier to imagine him falling off, for the people who think we should trade him, and the numbers suggest it's possible, but IMO it's too static a view. Players keep developing, if you let them, and it's not always an easy choice, but for a team who isn't trying to put the final pieces together for a title run, it's exactly what we should be focusing on.
The problem for me is he waited till his age 26 season to look intriguing, and now we're hoping he can continue to progress but at a time where we're expecting to see age-related decline start to set in on his carrying speed tool. If he'd shown up like that 3 years ago it would be a very different conversation.
Well that's also sort of the perfect time frame for (hopefully....) Bleis developing too, so Duran's best projectible years would still be team control years and if he does well, it only creates a good situation for the Sox.
Dreaming of a future long term outfield of Bleis in RF, Rafaela in CF and Anthony in RF with Abreu as the 4th OF'er... right?
Of course they’re all hitting their ceilings! Rafaela is JBJ2.0 out there but also swiping 30 bags and scoring on hits that normally would just bring guys around to 3B.
Anthony and Bleis are the Rice/Dewey at the corners.
Well, he did show up 3 years ago — i.e., he had his first new swing breakout during 2020 at the alternate site. If he'd done that in, say, Portland, we'd have more data.
Duran is back, and I am back on the Duran bandwagon. All winter I woke up longing to see the trade announcement for Luzardo or one of the Seattle slingers. Today I couldn’t be happier we get to watch this for another summer (and maybe many more to come). Duran rounding first on a slow single looks like my dog when he realizes I stopped faking him out and actually threw the ball:
https://x.com/tylermilliken_/status/1763610136977813832?s=46&t=cIYnjaS30cGsu-B5W0zrEQ
https://x.com/tylermilliken_/status/1763610136977813832?s=46&t=cIYnjaS30cGsu-B5W0zrEQ
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Those are some of my top highlights of the last few years (as he rounds first I would like to edit in the jangly running sound from Scooby Doo). Does anyone have the number of times he was caught at second trying to stretch a single?
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV7evRdBTxk
IIRC Rafaella does not have ++ speed like Duran or Ellsbury. Sox Prospects has him as +, but he’s going To be well below the disruption we see from Duran.
I think of the difference between game changing and merely fast.
I think of the difference between game changing and merely fast.
@Sandy Leon Trotsky's secnario reads to me like it would require more than just + speed.
Given Rafaella's slight frame (5'9", 165 lbs or so, vs Acuna at 6', 200+) I don't think I'd want him attempting that much in the way of steals anyway. I think it's also important to note that he would have to improve his reads and actual baserunning skill to play his speed up, which is something SP says he needs to work on.
That was really freaking fun to watch.
The acceleration on his rounding of first is really impressive. He runs angry, I love it.
Well, he's stolen 115 bases in the minors, so it's not like he hasn't done it before.
With the score tied, I put in my vote to keep Duran. It's not a strong take for me -- I'd be fine trading him if the return was right, but I don't think that trading him just for the sake of maximizing return value regardless of what that value is makes sense. Like, if he's going to bring back lottery tickets or mediocre ML talent there really isn't much point. If he can be part of a package for an impact prospect or player I'd be fine with that. As it is, I think there is a very real chance that he never repeats what he did last season, and I think there is a very real chance that he can be a useful ML piece with a couple of cost controlled years playing at a 2-3 WAR clip. Combine that with the small but non-zero chance that he seriously breaks out and puts up a season or two at a 4-5 win pace, and I think the variance he provides is more valuable to this team than players with lower variance but fewer impact outcomes.
If the Red Sox are going to compete in the next couple of years they need players like Duran to hit the optimistic side of their potential.
If the Red Sox are going to compete in the next couple of years they need players like Duran to hit the optimistic side of their potential.
Sometimes I think that BABIP is one of those metrics that no one cared about for too long, but now everyone cares about too much, without taking the time to dig deeper. Like, should it generally be expected to regress? Sure, but not always to the same point. Duran had a .381 BABIP last year, which is obviously not sustainable, but his average over time is .347, and all of the project systems have him at around .330 for next year, so it isn't like he should be expected to drop to .300 or anything close to league average.
He has a sprint speed in the 96th percentile, and a hard hit rate in 77th percentile, according to statcast, leading to an xBA of .268 (73rd percentile). Granted, that doesn't make him a great player with a bat in his hands (even with a significant baserunning value), but it adds up to a guy who should be slightly above average overall, assuming a below average glove, which isn't a given.
Not saying that he is an all-star, but if he is even just that, it's absolutely a player with value prior to FA. Let's not be in a huge hurry to get rid of him 'because BABIP.'
He has a sprint speed in the 96th percentile, and a hard hit rate in 77th percentile, according to statcast, leading to an xBA of .268 (73rd percentile). Granted, that doesn't make him a great player with a bat in his hands (even with a significant baserunning value), but it adds up to a guy who should be slightly above average overall, assuming a below average glove, which isn't a given.
Not saying that he is an all-star, but if he is even just that, it's absolutely a player with value prior to FA. Let's not be in a huge hurry to get rid of him 'because BABIP.'
If I remember the old debates correctly, BABIP is predictive for pitchers, but less so for batters. BABIP-against should be expected to revert to the league average for pitchers. Batters who hit the ball harder than average, hit more line drives, and/or who run faster to first base should be able to maintain a higher BABIP than league average for batters.
Also, watching Duran turn a single into a double was one of the few pleasures arising from Red Sox baserunning in 2023. I'm looking forward to seeing more of the same from him.
Apropos of the earlier conversations in this thread, I feel like age is a similarly "misunderstood" indicator.
Sure, age-related decline is absolutely a thing. And players who excel while playing above their age-cohort level (over significant sample sizes) probably do so due to talent or skill, rather than luck or some quirk, and should be highly valued. But sometimes prospect-valuing means the cart gets before the horse - the horse being club control.
If Duran is a serviceable MLB player with 5 seasons to go until FA. . .he's a serviceable player with 5 years of club control. Which in part means you can let him go over any off-season without consequence. And also, he's not likely to break the bank from a total budget POV, even if he gets a good arb contract and then tails off or is injured. So, in the context of planning for this year, and perhaps the next, who really cares if you're getting 3 or 4 or 5 "good" years out of him?