I don’t think ‘winning’ a trade like this in the moment is exactly the goal. Sure, who doesn’t want to sell high and I don’t want to waste assets, but we traded Sale+$ to get Grissom. We traded Pavano+ for Pedro.
It is important to remember that Duran was an infielder his entire life until switching to the outfield in 2019. He made improvements last year and I don't think it fair to assume that development path has come to an end.
ExactlyThe very definition of, and arguably the only definition of, selling high.
. Which is why I suppose you should always do it.
Offensively I think he is likely to end up a guy with a low to mid 700 OPS who has dynamic speed (assuming his toe injury doesn’t effect this) but who is best kept in LF to limit the risks of his poor glove. That’s probably a 1.4 win player, which is where most of the projection systems seem to place him. Unfortunately, it's a 1.4 win player who blocks LF from being filled by a bigger bat.
In some ways this is perfect because Anthony needs at least another year before we can plug him into LF in Fenway. By then Duran's fit should be clear.
I love hearing that Anthony can stick in CF because that skill paired with an actual bat in Fenway Park’s RF is huge for the Red Sox.
IIRC (I will try to look up a source later) trying to lift the ball more is what got him out of sync in 2021 and 2022. I vaguely remember reading about it and I can't remember if it was his own doing or at the behest of the coaching staff.
Yup. He's got so much upside, especially if the defense somehow makes another leap, as @SouthernBoSox pointed out. And the floor is a guy who hits the ball very hard, can steal a base and play a host of positions. If some other team wants him in a deal that benefits the Sox, so be it, but for now I imagine he's going to get regular time alongside our other outfielders and plenty of opportunity to be a gamechanger.
I don't think that anyone is denying that he has value, I think it's a matter of how much value. IMO, his game would be more valuable if he could play consistently good defense rather than be part of the team's overall defensive struggles.
Exactly.... Yoshida in LF for Fenway games and Duran in LF for games away. Rafaela in CF for most games wtih Duran giving him breaks when Yoshida is in LF.
I agree 100% on Rafaela, and have been advocating for him to make this team as a Super U guy and play all over the field, and play a lot, and hit in the 9 hole. His D alone, and speed on the bases is much needed for this team, especially with the new rules rewarding speed.
Rafaela accrued 35 service days last season. In order to get an "extra" year of control, he'd have to be in the minors long enough that at the end of the season he has less than 172 service days accrued (172 = 1 full year). There are 186 days from Opening Day to the final day of the season, so he'd need to be optioned for at least 50 days (186-172=14, added to his 35 days, plus one). That means May 16 is the date that would get them the extra year, assuming he started the year in Worcester.
There is zero chance Duran returns anything close to a top of the rotation starter.
The 2023 Red Sox had seven pitchers who started at least 10 games with only one of them winning more than 7 games (Bello--12-11). Of the five pitchers who made at least 19 starts, only three had winning records and two (Paxton 7-5 & Sale 6-5) are no longer with the team and two (Pivetta and Whitlock) actually pitched slightly more games in relief.
I hear you. I wouldn't want to trade him unless a starting pitcher is coming back.
King is the MLB guy the Padres got in the Soto deal, that would just be trading one current need for another.
Why LF? He seemed shockingly cromulent in CF last year after looking dysfunctionally unprofessional the year prior.
Cromulence is relative. He was better than he'd been before but still below average by every measure. I think the idea is that his defensive shortcomings can be blunted in LF, particularly outside of Fenway where the Wall isn't a factor. Also, with Rafaela and O'Neill, there are at least two better CF defenders on the roster.
I agree with all of this and would only add that I expect Abreu to get a lot of ABs in a 3-man rotation between CF and RF with Refsnyder as the 5th outfielder and purely platoon bat.
If the Red Sox are serious about fixing the defense (which was one of the worst of all time) you can simply absorb the problems with Rafaela’s bat, put him in center, Durán in left, platoon Abreu and O’Neil with O’Neil serving as rover.
Unless he forces the issue in ST, I’d prefer to see Rafaela working on the strike zone in Worcester. Defensively, my hope is that Story stabilizes the IF with Grissom being competent at 2B, Casas helping his teammates at 1B, and Devers staying out of his own head.
