Totally understand that
@cannonball 1729 owes me nothing, but every day I come to the forum looking for his Elimination Thread. It's honestly one of the best reads of the year for me. Hope we get it, understand if we don't.
It's a sort of sad, confusing story from what I understand. I would expect a long-form ESPN or Athletic profile about his during the offseason.
To remember, by mid-September 2019 he was in the midst of his second breakout season in a row. After going off for .326, 36 HR, and 22 SBs in 2018 and winning NL MVP, he went even further -- in 130 games (!) he was at .329 with 44 HR and 30 SBs. But then on September 10, 2019, he broke his kneecap. And when he came back last season he was not the same guy. Dude hit ~.200 and his OPS+ plummeted from 179 to 110. Came back this year and has been on and off the IL with a mysterious back injury and then COVID, hitting .245 with only 8 HR.
He's STILL only 29. I worry it's a Nomar situation (even more dramatic than his decline, in fact) where an accumulation of injuries can overwhelm even an outstanding young player.
The Tigers are at an interesting crossroads.
The bad: They still owe Miggy Cabrera $30M in 2022 & 2023. They still can't really hit (22nd OPS in MLB) or pitch (19th in ERA). And I don't think the AL Central is quite as awful as you're implying. They have to contend with the White Sox, who are likely making a World Series run this year and looking like a juggernaut for the next few seasons (that Eloy/Robert/Anderson/Abreu/Giolito/Lynn core is pretty scary), the Guardians, who were decimated by injuries this season (not just to players but to Tito as well) but in 2022 will still feature one of the deepest rotations in MLB, led by a Cy Young favorite (Bieber/Civale/Plesac/McKenzie/Quantrill is nothing to scoff at, especially given the late season emergence of Sticks McKenzie, no matter who is in the lineup), and I wouldn't be surprised if they're moderate buyers this offseason in the CJ Cron tier.
The good: As you say, with Mize/Skubal/Boyd atop the rotation and a lot of competent hitters in their lineup, they seem to have transcended the Baltimore/Arizona tier of terrible, with more help on the way from AAA in 2022.
Overall: I think the Tigers have to be careful not to turn into the Angels of the AL Central, where they spend just enough money to be in the unhappy middle -- too good to draft upper tier prospects, but not good enough to seriously contend. I think their next actual contention window opens in 2023/24, so if they do sign a big free agent this winter it will be like the Padres signing Machado in 2019: a signal that they plan to be better in the years to come and an advertisement to the 2023 free agent class (someone like Jose Ramirez could be a target?).