Rosenthal: Sale extension 5 years, $145 million

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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I don't even know how you would look that up, since you aren't dealing with final numbers in that scenario.
You see, there are just so many high quality posts on the main board, that all these silly posts that just, you know, discuss something, really get in the way. I mean, really, if we have more than the maybe one or two doctoral dissertations each day, then it will really degrade the site and distract from the abyss that is the main board. Therefore, some moderators see it as their duty to ensure that if it can’t be discussed to graduate level textbook standards, then nothing is discussed at all. And, if no one posts anything because they’re under the impressions that they can’t unless it is sourced like a law review article, so be it. The site will just wither and die. Then the mods can be secure in the knowledge that it never had any of that icky bar room talk.
 

Sprowl

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You see, there are just so many high quality posts on the main board, that all these silly posts that just, you know, discuss something, really get in the way. I mean, really, if we have more than the maybe one or two doctoral dissertations each day, then it will really degrade the site and distract from the abyss that is the main board. Therefore, some moderators see it as their duty to ensure that if it can’t be discussed to graduate level textbook standards, then nothing is discussed at all. And, if no one posts anything because they’re under the impressions that they can’t unless it is sourced like a law review article, so be it. The site will just wither and die. Then the mods can be secure in the knowledge that it never had any of that icky bar room talk.
You can't sacrifice yourself until next Friday.
 

absintheofmalaise

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I don't even know how you would look that up, since you aren't dealing with final numbers in that scenario.
You could go here and then go to the game logs for whatever year you wanted to look up. He didn't become a starter until 2012. It has the information you're looking for. Despite what some people have posted, we are only asking that before people make blanket statements that they believe to be true that they look up to see if the statement they are going to make is true. The information is out there.
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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You could go here and then go to the game logs for whatever year you wanted to look up. He didn't become a starter until 2012. It has the information you're looking for. Despite what some people have posted, we are only asking that before people make blanket statements that they believe to be true that they look up to see if the statement they are going to make is true. The information is out there.
How would game logs help here exactly? The scenario I described (got to 6 innings in 80 pitches but went on to pitch more) isn’t something you can just find in there.
 

tims4wins

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It definitely takes a lot of digging to get there. I found one start from 2018 where he was at 74 pitches through 6 then went out there and had a 19 pitch 7th and he was done.

Looks like he may have had a few in 2017. He threw 110+ pitches a lot more times that year. In general though he isn't very efficient. He rarely makes it through 6 innings at under 80 pitches.
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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It definitely takes a lot of digging to get there. I found one start from 2018 where he was at 74 pitches through 6 then went out there and had a 19 pitch 7th and he was done.

Looks like he may have had a few in 2017. He threw 110+ pitches a lot more times that year. In general though he isn't very efficient. He rarely makes it through 6 innings at under 80 pitches.
I wouldn’t say 100-110 pitches to get through 7 innings (a typical Sale outing) is all that inefficient, especially for a high strikeout pitcher. Its like 16 pitches per inning on average. It’s just that guys don’t throw as many pitches as they used to.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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I wouldn’t say 100-110 pitches to get through 7 innings (a typical Sale outing) is all that inefficient, especially for a high strikeout pitcher. Its like 16 pitches per inning on average. It’s just that guys don’t throw as many pitches as they used to.
Yeah for his Red Sox career he is right at around 16 pitches per inning. It's not terribly inefficient. Anyone know where to find league-wide stats on that? Curious where he ranks compared so some of the other top AL starting pitchers.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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The Sox had a chance today to kind of stabilize the season. They got shellacked instead. Now instead of 7-10 having won 3 of their last 4, they're 6-11 having lost 2 of their last 3 to Baltimore. Next up: five games on the road against NY and Tampa Bay. They are 6.5 games out of first and if this doesn't go well, they could easily be 9-10 games out of first by the end of the road trip.

We will all feel much better if Chris Sale goes in and dominates the Yankees (even with all their injuries). But if he gets lit up and the Sox fall to 6-12....holy crap that could be panic time. For real.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Domination or not, I'll feel better if he's sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball and has good breaking stuff. This season already feels lost (even though it technically isn't yet) but Sale looking like Sale would make a lot of people feel a whole lot better.
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
110
This is an excerpt from a Tom Verducci article on Sale today:

It will be fascinating to see what kind of stuff Boston lefthander Chris Sale brings to the mound at Yankee Stadium Tuesday, now that he is three starts into the regular season and pitching in the high-adrenaline environment he craves.

This much we know, at least according to one All-Star hitter: “He can’t pitch at 91-92.”
“When he’s throwing 97 you have to gear up for 97. And that makes you vulnerable to being out front on his breaking ball. But when he’s throwing 91, 92, it’s a whole different game. You know he can’t beat you with the fastball. So you can stay back and let the ball travel. Now you’re going to be on time against the breaking ball. If you don’t have to honor the 97, it’s a whole different at-bat. That’s why I say he can’t pitch at 91-92.”

What I find interesting is this “all star” player has to hind behind anonymity when making these critiques of Chris Sale. Hey if you’re going to have the balls to basically say the guy sucks without his velocity, at least be open with it. Doing it this way just comes off so weak. And I also don’t agree with the whole premise. I’m sure he’s a tougher at bat when he’s throwing 97+ but he was plenty successful throwing low 90’s last April. He had success with it in 2016 too.
 

joe dokes

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What I find interesting is this “all star” player has to hind behind anonymity when making these critiques of Chris Sale. Hey if you’re going to have the balls to basically say the guy sucks without his velocity, at least be open with it. Doing it this way just comes off so weak. And I also don’t agree with the whole premise. I’m sure he’s a tougher at bat when he’s throwing 97+ but he was plenty successful throwing low 90’s last April. He had success with it in 2016 too.
The next time an active player talks openly about another active player's decline will be the first time.
 

chrisfont9

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What I find interesting is this “all star” player has to hind behind anonymity when making these critiques of Chris Sale. Hey if you’re going to have the balls to basically say the guy sucks without his velocity, at least be open with it. Doing it this way just comes off so weak. And I also don’t agree with the whole premise. I’m sure he’s a tougher at bat when he’s throwing 97+ but he was plenty successful throwing low 90’s last April. He had success with it in 2016 too.
Do you know what it means to quote people on background? It's a time-honored journalistic practice because anonymous quotes are better than nothing. It's not weak at all, it's all you can reasonably ask for.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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That player is also 100% on the money. He hasn't been able to use his fastball/slider combo inside to righties since the middle of last summer and that's clearly what's made him the pitcher he is (or used to be). Going after the messenger, be it the anonymous player or Jeff Passan earlier in the thread, is just being salty at the person delivering bad news.
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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That player is also 100% on the money. He hasn't been able to use his fastball/slider combo inside to righties since the middle of last summer and that's clearly what's made him the pitcher he is (or used to be). Going after the messenger, be it the anonymous player or Jeff Passan earlier in the thread, is just being salty at the person delivering bad news.
I'm going after it because it's not true and it's also weak to say shit like that but hide while doing it. At least Bauer says things like that but does so publicly. Sale has pitched plenty fine with 91-92 before. He needs to command the zone better and you can't get away with many mistakes doing that, but this guy (whoever he is) is basically saying Chris Sale is a trash pitcher if he can't throw 95. That's wrong.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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That player is also 100% on the money. He hasn't been able to use his fastball/slider combo inside to righties since the middle of last summer and that's clearly what's made him the pitcher he is (or used to be). Going after the messenger, be it the anonymous player or Jeff Passan earlier in the thread, is just being salty at the person delivering bad news.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Jul 19, 2005
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I'm going after it because it's not true and it's also weak to say shit like that but hide while doing it. At least Bauer says things like that but does so publicly. Sale has pitched plenty fine with 91-92 before. He needs to command the zone better and you can't get away with many mistakes doing that, but this guy (whoever he is) is basically saying Chris Sale is a trash pitcher if he can't throw 95. That's wrong.
I won’t address the validity of the statement, but there are plenty of reasons not to say such a thing on the record. This player might find himself sharing a clubhouse with Sale someday and maybe doesn’t want to have an awkward conversation. Or maybe he’s on an AL team and doesn’t want to give him any extra motivation/bulletin board material. Or, even more simply, he doesn’t want to put himself (or a teammate) in the line of fire the next time his team faces Boston.

EDIT: To pre-empt the inevitable “so why say it” question, what we don’t know is the context of the reporting. This player could’ve mentioned Sale as an aside in an unrelated conversation, then the reporter calls back to do the Sale piece, asking him for a proper quote, to which he says “leave my name out of it.”
 
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absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
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I'm going after it because it's not true and it's also weak to say shit like that but hide while doing it. At least Bauer says things like that but does so publicly. Sale has pitched plenty fine with 91-92 before. He needs to command the zone better and you can't get away with many mistakes doing that, but this guy (whoever he is) is basically saying Chris Sale is a trash pitcher if he can't throw 95. That's wrong.
As to the bolded, when?
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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Chris Sale's average velocity on the 4-seam fastball fell as low as 92.72 in August 2016, but he averaged well over 93 for most of that year. April 2018 averaged 93.36 mph. There really isn't any velocity in his record as pedestrian as April 2019.
Okay, but he's had individual starts similar to a couple of his starts so far. He should get 3 more starts this month, let's see where he's sitting by then.
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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Once again, show your work. No one here is going to take your word for it.
Okay, start two last year he averaged 92.9 on the fastball and start four he averaged under 91, according to Brooks baseball, and it was only that high because the system was incorrectly categorizing many 86-89 mph fastballs as 'changeups'. Sale did not throw any changeups in that game and if anyone watched that start against Baltimore last April, they probably also remember the panic about his velocity then. It wasn't until May 6th last year when Sale started consistently averaging over 95 mph on his fastball.
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
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3/29/18 94.4 - 98.3 FB velocity
4/3/18 92.9 - 96.2 FB velocity
4/10/18 94 - 98 FB velocity
4/15/18 91.9 - 95.5 FB velocity
4/21/18 95.6 - 97.8 FB velocity
4/26/18 94 - 97.7 FB velocity
5/1/18 94.2 - 96.9 FB velocity

You are correct that he didn't throw any changes in game 2. In all of the other games he threw a mix of all four pitches. Considering that he only gave up one earned run in the "panic game" I doubt anyone was really freaking out. There are only two games out of those seven where his low velocity was around 92 mph. He was pretty consistently throwing in the mid to higher 90s the rest of the time.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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they probably also remember the panic about his velocity then.
As shown above he had much better velocity out the gate last year than this year. Also, something fairly significant happened between last April and this April and I'm not talking about his new contract. Something to do with that shoulder of his. Hoping for the best, obviously. But I'm pretty pessimistic. Today is a big test.
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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As shown above he had much better velocity out the gate last year than this year. Also, something fairly significant happened between last April and this April and I'm not talking about his new contract. Something to do with that shoulder of his. Hoping for the best, obviously. But I'm pretty pessimistic. Today is a big test.
Oh so you’re part of the crew that thinks that the Red Sox just invested $145 million into a pitcher that had all sorts of physical issues show up on his numerous MRI’s?
 

Sampo Gida

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Aug 7, 2010
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Okay, but he's had individual starts similar to a couple of his starts so far. He should get 3 more starts this month, let's see where he's sitting by then.
It's one thing to have a couple of starts where you have suboptimal velocity for whatever reason as hitters approach is based on scouting or previous experience where you throw 97. The element of surprise can mask lousy stuff over short periods.

However the book is out on Sale. Right or wrong. The hitters approach with Sale is the same as anyone else throwing 91-92. They are not worried about 97. Sale can change that in a hurry if he is physically able by showing them 97-98 once in awhile. Hitters right now are betting he can't do it.

Like you said the next 3 starts should tell us something more.
 

Sampo Gida

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Aug 7, 2010
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Oh so you’re part of the crew that thinks that the Red Sox just invested $145 million into a pitcher that had all sorts of physical issues show up on his numerous MRI’s?
MRI's are not conclusive and are prone to false negatives. There are other physical tests that can provide more information (not a doc) but diagnosing arm injuries seem as much art as science. Every pitcher throwing as hard as Sale develops some wear and tear, how much is the question.

Red Sox got it right with Pedro, and missed with Becketts last extension (he did bounce back in 2011 before dropping off again) My own test is if a pitcher bets on himself. Beckett and Sale didn't. Pedro also but the Red Sox didn't bite.

Whether Sale can bounce back I don't know. Red Sox seem to think so and time will tell if they are right. I sure hope so because Sale is a delight when he is on.​
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Oh so you’re part of the crew that thinks that the Red Sox just invested $145 million into a pitcher that had all sorts of physical issues show up on his numerous MRI’s?
All I know is that he had a significant injury and has only returned to form briefly in a relief role. Until he shows an uptick in performance, I'll remain concerned. You can't compare last April to this April without acknowledging the injury.
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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MRI's are not conclusive and are prone to false negatives. There are other physical tests that can provide more information (not a doc) but diagnosing arm injuries seem as much art as science. Every pitcher throwing as hard as Sale develops some wear and tear, how much is the question.

Red Sox got it right with Pedro, and missed with Becketts last extension (he did bounce back in 2011 before dropping off again) My own test is if a pitcher bets on himself. Beckett and Sale didn't. Pedro also but the Red Sox didn't bite.

Whether Sale can bounce back I don't know. Red Sox seem to think so and time will tell if they are right. I sure hope so because Sale is a delight when he is on.​
I mean wouldn’t they have had Sale go through every possible physical test?
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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He isn't pitching like he's hurt; he's pitching like he's trying to be more crafty and less of a smoke-thrower. It makes sense if he's trying to rein it in so he can get through a whole season, but the telling quote is him saying how lost he feels on the mound. If he was pitching like he had always pitched, he wouldn't feel lost and then it might be a question of injury. But him saying he's lost suggests that he just doesn't have a feel for what he's throwing right now and that could be due to a new pitching approach and/or a lack of reps to get that feel and have that strength. I don't think it's an injury; I think it's mental and it's compounded by the team's struggles and, I would think, his desire to live up to the deal he signed. We'll see how he does today but it wasn't that long ago that he gave up just one run in a game over several innings of work, so it's not like he's been consistently bad. The lack of swings and misses is concerning but I think that may be a function of guys sitting on his fastball because he's been ineffective with the breaking and offspeed stuff.
 

BaseballJones

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It could be that he's not "injured" in that everything feels fine, no pain, etc. But that he's experiencing the effects of wear and tear....he just can't throw as hard as he used to, and he's having to pitch differently and can't yet figure it out. I don't think he's necessarily holding back. Maybe it's just that he can't sit 96-98 anymore and that part of the control problems come as he tries to get to 95-96, it requires almost an overthrow. It requires a serious adjustment and for many pitchers (see CC) it takes a while. Maybe we're getting to that point for Sale? If he can adjust, he can be a terrific pitcher still.

Or maybe...we'll see him throwing 95-96 regularly in the summer. Who the heck knows.
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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You might be right, but I just can’t help but look at those two deliveries side by side (one from a pitch last year at 99 mph and one from his start in Oakland this year at 89 mph) and just see how much less violent and explosive it was in his upper body. It just seems like an intent to hold back or maybe fear if he does let loose he’ll get hurt again.
 

BaseballJones

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Four starts in, there hasn't been a single one of them that hasn't caused some consternation.

First, the raw stats:
G1 at Sea: 3.0 ip, 6 h, 7 r, 7 er, 3 hr, 2 bb, 4 k
G2 at Oak: 6.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 hr, 2 bb, 1 k
G3 vs Tor: 4.0 ip, 7 h, 5 r, 5 er, 0 hr, 0 bb, 3 k
G4 at NY: 5.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 hr, 1 bb, 6 k

Now more detail:
G1 at Sea: Average FB velocity 93.0. Not terrible to start the year. But gave up three homers, and didn't have many strikeouts for Chris Sale.

G2 at Oak: Average FB velocity 89.9. Huge red flag. He got the outs and held Oak to just one run, so that's the good news. The bad news? Terrible - below average MLB kind of terrible - FB velocity, and just one strikeout. That's not at ALL how Chris Sale is supposed to throw. Getting no swings and misses on his fastball in two games (actually, I think he got one in the two games).

G3 vs Tor: Toronto fielding what at best can be described as a AAA lineup, with like 6 of their starters hitting below .200. Average isn't everything, obviously, but it's not nothing either. Average FB velocity 92.0.

G4 at NY: Facing a massively depleted lineup, filled with AAA guys and a few MLB regulars. Average FB velocity 95.5. So that's a step in the right direction. With Leon back catching, Sale's pace was crisp early. He had a chance to get out of trouble early and had two strikes on the guy with two outs and couldn't put him away, ending up giving up an opposite-field single that opened the floodgates a little. Change in philosophy. Until then, here was his pitch mix:

G1 at Sea: FB 39.5%, SL 36.8%, CH 23.7%
G2 at Oak: FB 33.3%, SL 33.3%, CH 33.3%
G3 vs Tor: FB 38.7%, SL 34.7%, CH 26.7%
G4 at NY: FB 38.7%, SL 53.8%, CH 7.5%

Odd mix of pitches, especially when he had a good fastball. Well, good fastball velocity anyway. You'd think that that would be the time to throw more fastballs and more changeups. Instead, it was nearly 54% sliders. The good news is that he got 6 strikeouts, but again, against a crummy lineup. The HR was classic Yankee Stadium crap, but it counts nonetheless.

So far, his overall stat line is: 0-4, 8.50 era, 1.56 whip, 7.0 k/9

And really, in his only good start even then there were major red (or at least yellow) flags.
 

Wingack

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Four starts in, there hasn't been a single one of them that hasn't caused some consternation.

First, the raw stats:
G1 at Sea: 3.0 ip, 6 h, 7 r, 7 er, 3 hr, 2 bb, 4 k
G2 at Oak: 6.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 hr, 2 bb, 1 k
G3 vs Tor: 4.0 ip, 7 h, 5 r, 5 er, 0 hr, 0 bb, 3 k
G4 at NY: 5.0 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 hr, 1 bb, 6 k

Now more detail:
G1 at Sea: Average FB velocity 93.0. Not terrible to start the year. But gave up three homers, and didn't have many strikeouts for Chris Sale.

G2 at Oak: Average FB velocity 89.9. Huge red flag. He got the outs and held Oak to just one run, so that's the good news. The bad news? Terrible - below average MLB kind of terrible - FB velocity, and just one strikeout. That's not at ALL how Chris Sale is supposed to throw. Getting no swings and misses on his fastball in two games (actually, I think he got one in the two games).

G3 vs Tor: Toronto fielding what at best can be described as a AAA lineup, with like 6 of their starters hitting below .200. Average isn't everything, obviously, but it's not nothing either. Average FB velocity 92.0.

G4 at NY: Facing a massively depleted lineup, filled with AAA guys and a few MLB regulars. Average FB velocity 95.5. So that's a step in the right direction. With Leon back catching, Sale's pace was crisp early. He had a chance to get out of trouble early and had two strikes on the guy with two outs and couldn't put him away, ending up giving up an opposite-field single that opened the floodgates a little. Change in philosophy. Until then, here was his pitch mix:

G1 at Sea: FB 39.5%, SL 36.8%, CH 23.7%
G2 at Oak: FB 33.3%, SL 33.3%, CH 33.3%
G3 vs Tor: FB 38.7%, SL 34.7%, CH 26.7%
G4 at NY: FB 38.7%, SL 53.8%, CH 7.5%

Odd mix of pitches, especially when he had a good fastball. Well, good fastball velocity anyway. You'd think that that would be the time to throw more fastballs and more changeups. Instead, it was nearly 54% sliders. The good news is that he got 6 strikeouts, but again, against a crummy lineup. The HR was classic Yankee Stadium crap, but it counts nonetheless.

So far, his overall stat line is: 0-4, 8.50 era, 1.56 whip, 7.0 k/9

And really, in his only good start even then there were major red (or at least yellow) flags.
It should be noted that 5 out of the 6 K's were against MLB caliber players. Gleyber twice, LeMahieu twice and Voit. He also struck out Tauchman.
 

jon abbey

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It should be noted that 5 out of the 6 K's were against MLB caliber players. Gleyber twice, LeMahieu twice and Voit. He also struck out Tauchman.
On the flip side, I don’t have a citation but I read last night was the most “hard contact” Sale has allowed in any game since coming to BOS.