Rosenthal: Sale extension 5 years, $145 million

BaseballJones

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Sale's last 11 starts: 2.24 era, 0.83 whip, 14.4 k/9, and the team is 5-6 in those 11 starts.
 

Plympton91

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I’d have more sympathy for Sale’s lack of run support if he didn’t all but force the team to put one of the worst hitters in major league history with more than 1000 PA in the lineup so often when he pitches.
 

canderson

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He referred to himself as a “liability” after tonight's dud.

Wonder if it’s become more a head issue than shoulder issue.
 

ookami7m

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According to the radio broadcast he was 95ish in the 1st inning then down to 91 by the 4th. Smells of injury to me.
 

Al Zarilla

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According to the radio broadcast he was 95ish in the 1st inning then down to 91 by the 4th. Smells of injury to me.
In tough moments he actually hit 97-98, but shortly thereafter his velocity drastically faded.
These seem a bit exaggerated. According to Brooks Baseball, when he fell off velocity wise, it was his last inning, >80 pitches. Second scatterplot, that's too many pitches in the zone, isn't it? He's got the swing and miss stuff, need to make them chase more.



 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Still not catching anywhere near the same amount of shit from fans that Price caught...... I see a lot of "concern" but no outright anger and vile that was sent Price's way up until he became a World Series Hero for the Sox. I guess Sale gets an extra long leash due to.... I don't know..... complexion maybe?
Whatever it is... this team needs him to live up to his contract and he's not anywhere near doing that- and his past success in the playoffs and late in the season doesn't lead me to think he's going to get there.
 

PhilPlantier

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Still not catching anywhere near the same amount of shit from fans that Price caught...... I see a lot of "concern" but no outright anger and vile that was sent Price's way up until he became a World Series Hero for the Sox. I guess Sale gets an extra long leash due to.... I don't know..... complexion maybe?
Whatever it is... this team needs him to live up to his contract and he's not anywhere near doing that- and his past success in the playoffs and late in the season doesn't lead me to think he's going to get there.
This is a sometimes a factor, but here I think it has more to do with the fact that Price signed the most lucrative contract ever for a pitcher, and that comes with lofty expectations that he didn't meet. He was durable but underwhelming in his first year in Boston, and he didn't play well with the media.

Sale earned a bit of breathing room by dominating during his first regular season in Boston. But even he wasn't immune from criticism after a terrible ALDS performance: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/red-sox-astros-alds-uh-oh-here-come-the-premature-chris-sale-is-a-choker-takes/.

This probably doesn't affect their standing with average fans, but Sale's ERA+ during this disappointing season is identical to Price's in his first year in Boston. And Sale has a better FIP this year than Price did in any of his first three seasons.
 

riboflav

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Still not catching anywhere near the same amount of shit from fans that Price caught...... I see a lot of "concern" but no outright anger and vile that was sent Price's way up until he became a World Series Hero for the Sox. I guess Sale gets an extra long leash due to.... I don't know..... complexion maybe?
Whatever it is... this team needs him to live up to his contract and he's not anywhere near doing that- and his past success in the playoffs and late in the season doesn't lead me to think he's going to get there.
You know Sale is also (already) a WS hero, right? They (and he) won it like less than a year ago. That may have a lot to do with the crickets.

Or, we can ask guys like Jack Clark if complexion had a lot to do with his treatment by the fans.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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You know Sale is also (already) a WS hero, right? They (and he) won it like less than a year ago. That may have a lot to do with the crickets.

Or, we can ask guys like Jack Clark if complexion had a lot to do with his treatment by the fans.
Or more recently JD Drew. Or John Lackey.

Can a guy have more than a few crappy months before we conclude he sucks/doesn't care/doesn't deserve to be in Boston? And it's not like Sale has denied that he's been terrible. He's been very up front about how disappointed he is with his performance.

Add in the likelihood that he's dealing with some sort of physical problem - that makes a poster here voicing his resentment that the fans aren't loudly booing him even more disgraceful.
 

Plympton91

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Still not catching anywhere near the same amount of shit from fans that Price caught...... I see a lot of "concern" but no outright anger and vile that was sent Price's way up until he became a World Series Hero for the Sox. I guess Sale gets an extra long leash due to.... I don't know..... complexion maybe?
Whatever it is... this team needs him to live up to his contract and he's not anywhere near doing that- and his past success in the playoffs and late in the season doesn't lead me to think he's going to get there.
Oh Bullshit. Price reacted to his subpar (for him) first season by telling us he was pitching fine and just getting unlucky and then by picking fights with the announcers, reporters, and fans. Sale is reacting to his subpar season by answering every question with some version of either “I suck right now” or “I’m letting this team down, I need to be better.” Candor and laying the blame where it belongs — on him, not on fate, the fans, or the press — is what is buying him rope.
 

Raindog

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Oh Bullshit. Price reacted to his subpar (for him) first season by telling us he was pitching fine and just getting unlucky and then by picking fights with the announcers, reporters, and fans. Sale is reacting to his subpar season by answering every question with some version of either “I suck right now” or “I’m letting this team down, I need to be better.” Candor and laying the blame where it belongs — on him, not on fate, the fans, or the press — is what is buying him rope.

This.
 

shaggydog2000

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Sequencing makes a difference. Be the best starting pitcher in your league by WAR, ERA, FIP, and XFIP and win a world championship, on a bargain contract, then throw up some stinkers and you'll be given some rope.
 
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Oh Bullshit. Price reacted to his subpar (for him) first season by telling us he was pitching fine and just getting unlucky and then by picking fights with the announcers, reporters, and fans. Sale is reacting to his subpar season by answering every question with some version of either “I suck right now” or “I’m letting this team down, I need to be better.” Candor and laying the blame where it belongs — on him, not on fate, the fans, or the press — is what is buying him rope.
The name if the game is not putting guys on and keeping the ball out of play. His 172 strikeouts and 29 walks in 117 innings is extraordinary and Pedro-like. I can't believe his lack of success this year is anything but SSS bad luck.

I don't give him any credit for berating himself as it implies he's not trying hard enough. His attitude should be, "I've been very good in the past and will be so in the future and if you don't agree, give the ball to someone else."
 

azsoxpatsfan

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I just read a Fangraphs article about Andrew Miller regarding how he has a negative fWAR, but is still a really great pitcher because he strikes out a ton of batters, walks very few, has an above average GB%, and doesn’t give up tons of fly balls. His negative WAR is basically due to a huge percentage of his flies going for home runs, despite having an xwOBA against only slightly worse than average. It got me thinking about Sale, and whether some of his struggles are similarly due more to bad luck than anything else.

He’s currently fifth in the AL in FIP at 3.22 and second in xFIP at 2.97 (behind Gerrit Cole). Second in k/9 and K-BB% (also behind Cole). His GB% is higher than his career average, and his LD% and FB% are lower. So why isn’t he dominating?

I think there’s a few reasons. First of all, his HR/FB is 17.6%, the highest of his career by a full 5% and the sixth highest rate in the league. However, both Cole and Verlander have higher ratios, so that alone can’t be the reason.

I think his biggest problem is that his LOB% is only 69.4%, the sixth worst rate in the league and the worst of his career. Of the worst 14 pitchers in the league in LOB%, none other than Sale have a FIP under 4.05, and from that group only Sale and Kyle Gibson have an xFIP under 4.53. The weird thing is that Sale has by far the lowest WHIP and BAA of that group. So it seems to me that a lot of the reason Sale hasn’t dominated this season like we’ve seen in the past is that a disproportionate amount of the hits he’s allowing are driving in runs.

The numbers seem to back that up. 20 of the 98 hits he’s allowed are with RISP, and his BABIP with RISP is .422(!), compared to his season BABIP of .314. This isn’t all bad luck, as he’s given up more hard contact and more line drives and fly balls with runners on than bases empty, but I have to think there will be some regression. Maybe he’s doing something different mechanically with men on base, but if not, I have to think that giving up such a high BABIP with RISP is due to luck, and should regress pretty significantly, which will, of course, lead to a much higher LOB%. If that happens, considering his other stats are great to elite, I’d expect him to build on his last start and be dominant the rest of the season.
 

joe dokes

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I just read a Fangraphs article about Andrew Miller regarding how he has a negative fWAR, but is still a really great pitcher because he strikes out a ton of batters, walks very few, has an above average GB%, and doesn’t give up tons of fly balls. His negative WAR is basically due to a huge percentage of his flies going for home runs, despite having an xwOBA against only slightly worse than average. It got me thinking about Sale, and whether some of his struggles are similarly due more to bad luck than anything else.

He’s currently fifth in the AL in FIP at 3.22 and second in xFIP at 2.97 (behind Gerrit Cole). Second in k/9 and K-BB% (also behind Cole). His GB% is higher than his career average, and his LD% and FB% are lower. So why isn’t he dominating?

I think there’s a few reasons. First of all, his HR/FB is 17.6%, the highest of his career by a full 5% and the sixth highest rate in the league. However, both Cole and Verlander have higher ratios, so that alone can’t be the reason.

I think his biggest problem is that his LOB% is only 69.4%, the sixth worst rate in the league and the worst of his career. Of the worst 14 pitchers in the league in LOB%, none other than Sale have a FIP under 4.05, and from that group only Sale and Kyle Gibson have an xFIP under 4.53. The weird thing is that Sale has by far the lowest WHIP and BAA of that group. So it seems to me that a lot of the reason Sale hasn’t dominated this season like we’ve seen in the past is that a disproportionate amount of the hits he’s allowing are driving in runs.

The numbers seem to back that up. 20 of the 98 hits he’s allowed are with RISP, and his BABIP with RISP is .422(!), compared to his season BABIP of .314. This isn’t all bad luck, as he’s given up more hard contact and more line drives and fly balls with runners on than bases empty, but I have to think there will be some regression. Maybe he’s doing something different mechanically with men on base, but if not, I have to think that giving up such a high BABIP with RISP is due to luck, and should regress pretty significantly, which will, of course, lead to a much higher LOB%. If that happens, considering his other stats are great to elite, I’d expect him to build on his last start and be dominant the rest of the season.
Good stuff. (This post and Sale).
 

BaseballJones

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Exhibit A of why wins are a bad stat for pitchers, look at tomorrow’s matchup...

German: 12-2, 4.03 era, 1.12 whip, 9.7 k/9
Sale: 5-9, 4.00 era, 1.08 whip, 13.3 k/9

Same with slightly better era and whip and vastly better k/9, but getting crushed in the W/L department.
 

patoaflac

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More on Sale’s favor to get a W. Those things correct when you increase the sample.
 

Max Power

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Exhibit A of why wins are a bad stat for pitchers, look at tomorrow’s matchup...

German: 12-2, 4.03 era, 1.12 whip, 9.7 k/9
Sale: 5-9, 4.00 era, 1.08 whip, 13.3 k/9

Same with slightly better era and whip and vastly better k/9, but getting crushed in the W/L department.
It's not a bad stat. It tells you how the team did when the guy pitched. And when Sale has pitched, the Red Sox have usually lost the game this season.
 

Wayapman

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I just read a Fangraphs article about Andrew Miller regarding how he has a negative fWAR, but is still a really great pitcher because he strikes out a ton of batters, walks very few, has an above average GB%, and doesn’t give up tons of fly balls. His negative WAR is basically due to a huge percentage of his flies going for home runs, despite having an xwOBA against only slightly worse than average. It got me thinking about Sale, and whether some of his struggles are similarly due more to bad luck than anything else.

He’s currently fifth in the AL in FIP at 3.22 and second in xFIP at 2.97 (behind Gerrit Cole). Second in k/9 and K-BB% (also behind Cole). His GB% is higher than his career average, and his LD% and FB% are lower. So why isn’t he dominating?

I think there’s a few reasons. First of all, his HR/FB is 17.6%, the highest of his career by a full 5% and the sixth highest rate in the league. However, both Cole and Verlander have higher ratios, so that alone can’t be the reason.

I think his biggest problem is that his LOB% is only 69.4%, the sixth worst rate in the league and the worst of his career. Of the worst 14 pitchers in the league in LOB%, none other than Sale have a FIP under 4.05, and from that group only Sale and Kyle Gibson have an xFIP under 4.53. The weird thing is that Sale has by far the lowest WHIP and BAA of that group. So it seems to me that a lot of the reason Sale hasn’t dominated this season like we’ve seen in the past is that a disproportionate amount of the hits he’s allowing are driving in runs.

The numbers seem to back that up. 20 of the 98 hits he’s allowed are with RISP, and his BABIP with RISP is .422(!), compared to his season BABIP of .314. This isn’t all bad luck, as he’s given up more hard contact and more line drives and fly balls with runners on than bases empty, but I have to think there will be some regression. Maybe he’s doing something different mechanically with men on base, but if not, I have to think that giving up such a high BABIP with RISP is due to luck, and should regress pretty significantly, which will, of course, lead to a much higher LOB%. If that happens, considering his other stats are great to elite, I’d expect him to build on his last start and be dominant the rest of the season.
I took particular note of your section on Sale struggling significantly more with RISP.

Couldn't this be due to either:
A) struggling out of the stretch VS windup
B) other teams being able to steal signs when they have a runner on 2nd
 

azsoxpatsfan

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I took particular note of your section on Sale struggling significantly more with RISP.

Couldn't this be due to either:
A) struggling out of the stretch VS windup
B) other teams being able to steal signs when they have a runner on 2nd
It could definitely be one of those. The thing that made me think it was luck was the much higher BABIP (.404 with RISP, .303 with bases empty), but he’s also giving up more hard and medium contact and less soft contact with RISP than with bases empty, and with RISP his GB% goes down while his FB% and LD% go up. Additionally, he’s giving up harder contact than his career numbers with RISP, so it’s not like he always gives up harder than usual contact with RISP. I’d still bet on some improvement, because a BABIP over .400 is bound to come down some, but if it is due to problems with the stretch or sign stealing, I may have to rethink how much better I expect him to get
 

Plympton91

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Exhibit A of why wins are a bad stat for pitchers, look at tomorrow’s matchup...

German: 12-2, 4.03 era, 1.12 whip, 9.7 k/9
Sale: 5-9, 4.00 era, 1.08 whip, 13.3 k/9

Same with slightly better era and whip and vastly better k/9, but getting crushed in the W/L department.
Why didn’t you include HR per 9?

Also, as I said in an earlier post, Chris Sale’s run support is negatively impacted by his own insistence on having one of the worst hitters in the major leagues as his catcher. Thus, I have no sympathy for him in that department.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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No discussion about how badly he missed on the hand side last start? No explanation.
I couldn’t watch. How bad was it?

Edit: also off topic but another shitty side effect of the Sox shittiness is the games start at 4 and and I get off work at 5:30. A disproportionate amount of games (esp sale starts) are not worth watching by the time I get home a bit after 6. In another month I’ll be back east for school and can watch from the start every night, but that’s assuming those games are worth watching anymore at all
 

CoffeeNerdness

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So he needs to completely redo his mechanics to become a submarining closer with Carl Hubbell's screwball and he'll win 300 games. Simple enough.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Posted this in the game thread.... but...... seems appropriate here:
That Sale loss to the MFY's a week ago, at Fenway, after winning the first 3 of the 4 game series in awesome fashion really felt like a nut punch that they haven't recovered from and it looks to be the undoing of the season.
A sweep of that series would have put the Sox in the WC and been 7 out of the series while putting a serious scare into the MFY's- exposing their weakness to the league, going with momentum into that Rays series.
Instead, Sale served up a big turd and you could feel the optimism and broken momentum and frustration that carried over into that Rays series. This season right now was broken on that one game. Chris Sale. Again... looks like he's a big game failure! David Price shook his demons off but Chris Sale hasn't yet.
 
Jul 5, 2018
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Posted this in the game thread.... but...... seems appropriate here:
That Sale loss to the MFY's a week ago, at Fenway, after winning the first 3 of the 4 game series in awesome fashion really felt like a nut punch that they haven't recovered from and it looks to be the undoing of the season.
A sweep of that series would have put the Sox in the WC and been 7 out of the series while putting a serious scare into the MFY's- exposing their weakness to the league, going with momentum into that Rays series.
Instead, Sale served up a big turd and you could feel the optimism and broken momentum and frustration that carried over into that Rays series. This season right now was broken on that one game. Chris Sale. Again... looks like he's a big game failure! David Price shook his demons off but Chris Sale hasn't yet.
You know they play 162 games, right? You believe that despite Sale's inconsistency, the players thought the game was a guaranteed win, did the WC math and were so devastated when they lost that they gave up on the season? These guys have been playing baseball since when they were little kids and know how random one game can be.

From Bull Durham:

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains."
 
Last edited:

Philip Jeff Frye

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Posted this in the game thread.... but...... seems appropriate here:
That Sale loss to the MFY's a week ago, at Fenway, after winning the first 3 of the 4 game series in awesome fashion really felt like a nut punch that they haven't recovered from and it looks to be the undoing of the season.
A sweep of that series would have put the Sox in the WC and been 7 out of the series while putting a serious scare into the MFY's- exposing their weakness to the league, going with momentum into that Rays series.
Instead, Sale served up a big turd and you could feel the optimism and broken momentum and frustration that carried over into that Rays series. This season right now was broken on that one game. Chris Sale. Again... looks like he's a big game failure! David Price shook his demons off but Chris Sale hasn't yet.
Did Chris Sale run over your dog or something?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Did Chris Sale run over your dog or something?
It was a bit game-thready, as I mentioned. It sure feels like he ran over my dog last week and then backed over it again yesterday. I obviously don't know if it's injury or what but he has got to be a very serious concern for the long term right now. I never thought it was a good idea to hand out that contract to him- he already had some red flags with stamina over a season.
 

bosockboy

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When Sale first went on the DL last July, when he came off he pitched five innings on August 12 here:
He was utterly electric, and immediately went back on the DL and has never pitched the same again.
I think about this game quite a bit.
 

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I think that a problem with a funky delivery is that it doesn't take much to throw it off. Something is happening, especially with his off-speed stuff. A lot less consistent, a lot less control within the zone. And those bad pitches are getting hammered.
In spite of it all, his WHIP is 1.14 and his K/9 is 13. He doesn't need to reinvent himself, but someone needs to figure out how to fix his inconsistency, and I wonder if that starts with his delivery.
 

BaseballJones

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Season is just about over. Especially if Sale is toast. So maybe
Did Chris Sale run over your dog or something?
That Sale loss to the Yankees last Sunday was the key game of the year and he was pretty awful in a huge spot. Not saying that the rest of the season is on him for that one game, but it was a huge huge game and he came up empty.
 

scottyno

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When Sale first went on the DL last July, when he came off he pitched five innings on August 12 here:
He was utterly electric, and immediately went back on the DL and has never pitched the same again.
I think about this game quite a bit.
Other than the 2 month stretch this year where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball including back to back starts with 31 ks in 15 innings?
 

BaseballJones

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Other than the 2 month stretch this year where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball including back to back starts with 31 ks in 15 innings?
Three main parts of Sale's season:

Part 1 - Slow start (Mar 28-Apr 16): 4 g, 18.0 ip, 8.50 era, 1.56 whip, 2.5 hr/9, .943 ops against (team was 0-4 over this stretch)
Part 2 - Dominant (Apr 17-Jun 15): 11 g, 72.1 ip, 2.24 era, 0.83 whip, 0.7 hr/9, .540 ops against (team was 5-6 over this stretch)
Part 3 - Abysmal (Jun 16-Aug 3): 8 g, 42.1 ip, 7.23 era, 1.49 whip, 2.3 hr/9, .889 ops against (team was 3-5 over this stretch)

One of the real problems is that even when Sale was great, the team STILL had a losing record when he pitched. Look at the top 15 Sale starts by game score, and the team was only 7-8 in those top 15 starts. In his 12 starts where he allowed 2 earned runs or fewer, the Sox were only 6-6. I mean, only going 6-6 in starts where Sale gives up fewer than 2 earned runs? In his 16 games where he allowed 4 or fewer runs (earned or unearned), the Sox were just 8-8. In the 8 games where Sale allowed only 3 hits or fewer, the Sox were only 4-4. In other words, even when Sale was at his best, the Sox barely could muster a .500 record.

So if they lost the games when Sale sucked, and won when Sale was really good, they'd be right at the 2nd WC position right now. Obviously that's not all on Sale.
 

bosockboy

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Other than the 2 month stretch this year where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball including back to back starts with 31 ks in 15 innings?
His velocity still hasn’t reached been recovered from pre injury. He was very good for 2 months notwithstanding, yes.
 

BaseballJones

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His velocity still hasn’t reached been recovered from pre injury. He was very good for 2 months notwithstanding, yes.
This demonstrates that he's capable of being a very very good pitcher without throwing 97. He just needs to get more consistent. I mean, plenty of starting LHPs are really really good without a dominant fastball. Kershaw, Lester, Ryu, just to name three right off the top of my head.
 

ricopetro6

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after his problems ending last season, to sign Sale to an extension in the off season was beyond idiotic.
 

Plympton91

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after his problems ending last season, to sign Sale to an extension in the off season was beyond idiotic.
Ditto. Said it all spring. The fact that Sale was willing to sign such a reasonable contract should have been a big bright red flashing light. If he were confident in his ability to continue to pitch at an elite level, he wouldn’t have signed that contract.
 

In my lifetime

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Nice confirming bias. Then X signed an under market contract because obviously he knew he was going to have an off year.
 

Plympton91

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Nice confirming bias. Then X signed an under market contract because obviously he knew he was going to have an off year.
Are people really this unable to grasp the distinctions between giving a long term contract extension to a healthy 26 year old shortstop and an injured 30 year old pitcher?

If so, my explaining more won’t help.
 

In my lifetime

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Your point was that the RS should have known Sale was not confident of his ability to pitch well and therefore Sale agreed to a reasonable contract. If X had a lousy year, you could have said the same about him signing his contract. In retrospect, it isn't very hard to determine who was worth signing. And that is my point. Show me the big outcry against the Sale contract at the time it was signed.

And despite tbe disappointing year, I would be happy to wager that by the time the contract has run its course, Sale's performance as measured by WAR will have exceeded the cost of the contract.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Are people really this unable to grasp the distinctions between giving a long term contract extension to a healthy 26 year old shortstop and an injured 30 year old pitcher?

If so, my explaining more won’t help.
Are you angrier about Chris Sale's extension or Nathan Eovaldi's?
 

mfried

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I just read a Fangraphs article about Andrew Miller regarding how he has a negative fWAR, but is still a really great pitcher because he strikes out a ton of batters, walks very few, has an above average GB%, and doesn’t give up tons of fly balls. His negative WAR is basically due to a huge percentage of his flies going for home runs, despite having an xwOBA against only slightly worse than average. It got me thinking about Sale, and whether some of his struggles are similarly due more to bad luck than anything else.

He’s currently fifth in the AL in FIP at 3.22 and second in xFIP at 2.97 (behind Gerrit Cole). Second in k/9 and K-BB% (also behind Cole). His GB% is higher than his career average, and his LD% and FB% are lower. So why isn’t he dominating?

I think there’s a few reasons. First of all, his HR/FB is 17.6%, the highest of his career by a full 5% and the sixth highest rate in the league. However, both Cole and Verlander have higher ratios, so that alone can’t be the reason.

I think his biggest problem is that his LOB% is only 69.4%, the sixth worst rate in the league and the worst of his career. Of the worst 14 pitchers in the league in LOB%, none other than Sale have a FIP under 4.05, and from that group only Sale and Kyle Gibson have an xFIP under 4.53. The weird thing is that Sale has by far the lowest WHIP and BAA of that group. So it seems to me that a lot of the reason Sale hasn’t dominated this season like we’ve seen in the past is that a disproportionate amount of the hits he’s allowing are driving in runs.

The numbers seem to back that up. 20 of the 98 hits he’s allowed are with RISP, and his BABIP with RISP is .422(!), compared to his season BABIP of .314. This isn’t all bad luck, as he’s given up more hard contact and more line drives and fly balls with runners on than bases empty, but I have to think there will be some regression. Maybe he’s doing something different mechanically with men on base, but if not, I have to think that giving up such a high BABIP with RISP is due to luck, and should regress pretty significantly, which will, of course, lead to a much higher LOB%. If that happens, considering his other stats are great to elite, I’d expect him to build on his last start and be dominant the rest of the season.
Sale's normal FB velocity averages around 93, though he hits 97 on occasion. And his slider command is way erratic. I also sense that he doesn't play the slider and change-up off each other effectively. These three factors spell trouble, though I'm convinced that this can (and will be) fixed.