Romeo Langford - Pick #14

Cesar Crespo

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its a ceiling not many players ever hit that...BUT its exactly why you play Romeo in small/low leverage minutes
Yeah, I'm not even talking about Romeo and his ceiling. I'm talking about the comment that adding a 3 point shot and D to DeRozan's game would make Langford an all star. Just having DeRozan's game would make Langford an all star.

I wouldn't be all that surprised if Romeo made an all star game or two. I like him a bit.

edit: If someone wants to think his ceiling is top 5 player in the league, that's fine. Maybe that is his ceiling too. I think that's different than saying his ceiling is "all star."
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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DeRozan is a 4 time all-star without a 3 point shot and mediocre defense. He'd probably have a few top 5 seasons in MVP voting if he had both. Hell, he finished 11th in 16-17 and 8th in 17-18.

I'm not making an argument about whether DeRozan is good or not. I'm pointing out actual facts. DeRozan is a 4 time all-star.
Understood but I'm wondering whether as analysis gets more sophisticated, people might think differently about a DeRozen-type player who doesn't shoot/make any 3Ps.

Besides, I doubt that a DeRozen type would get the same amount of shots/statistics in a Brad Stevens offense so the counting numbers wouldn't be as high.
 

amarshal2

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Probably, I think he's pretty underrated. People literally think he's a bad basketball player.
Mostly, people think he’s raw. The Celtics agree.

But I understand making sweeping and often factually incorrect generalizations about everyone else’s opinions is becoming your thing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Mostly, people think he’s raw. The Celtics agree.

But I understand making sweeping and often factually incorrect generalizations about everyone else’s opinions is becoming your thing.
I'm talking about DeRozan. I'm sorry you are butt hurt over your Carsen Edwards ceiling. Keep being small.
 

Cesar Crespo

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apologies, I misread.

DeRozen isn’t an all-star caliber player anymore. he was kind of a fringe all-star once upon a time.
He made 4 all star teams. That's not fringe. That was my whole point. It had nothing to do with Langford. Whether you think DeRozan is good or not, he's an all star.
 

benhogan

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He made 4 all star teams. That's not fringe. That was my whole point. It had nothing to do with Langford. Whether you think DeRozan is good or not, he's an all star.
The game is changing before our eyes.

All-Star DeRozen wouldn't make future All-Star games since he wouldn't get the opportunity to put up the counting numbers he put up in a different era
 

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If Heyward opts in (or even for the rest of this season), the Celts need a wing off the bench who can minimize the drop off when JB, JT or GH sub out. If Romeo can keep on track or improving from what he showed against Detroit, he can be that guy. And that would be incredibly valuable.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The game is changing before our eyes.

All-Star DeRozen wouldn't make future All-Star games since he wouldn't get the opportunity to put up the counting numbers he put up in a different era
He just made an all star team in 2017-18. and 16-17... and 15-16. Whatever you say. You are probably right that he wont make any future all star teams but for the wrong reason.
 

amarshal2

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He made 4 all star teams. That's not fringe. That was my whole point. It had nothing to do with Langford. Whether you think DeRozan is good or not, he's an all star.
You’re using “voted into an all star game” to mean “irrefutable proof that a player is one of the best players in the nba”.

he was pretty good when he was taking 8 FTs a game but a guy who is a minus on defense, has a negative +/- and is taking a lot of shots at league average efficiency is not one of the best players in the game.

edit: clarification on efficiency
 

Cesar Crespo

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You’re using “voted into an all star game” to mean “irrefutable proof that a player is one of the best players in the nba”.

he was pretty good when he was taking 8 FTs a game but a guy who is a minus on defense, has a negative +/- and is taking a lot of inefficient shots is not one of the best players in the game.
No, I'm not. Wade Boggs literally used the term all star. I think that term has a very concrete definition. He didn't say star or superstar. When most people talked of Brown, they talked of "all star potential." When they talked of Tatum they talked of "top 5 potential."

"One of the best players in the NBA" would be top 5-10 to me. So maybe the whole argument is semantics, I dunno.
 

Kliq

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Derozan is a statistical anomaly the likes of which we may never see again. He really shouldn’t be used as a comp for anyone.

Langford will probably shoot threes whether or not he makes a high percentage of them. Not sure what a good comp for him would be given the SSS.
 

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The ceiling discussion is useful, because it reminds us why Romeo is going to get minutes over the next season or two ahead of guys who are currently better than he is — because Romeo has the potential to develop into a cornerstone guy like GH, Tatum, or Jaylen, and those other guys don’t.

Because he’s rebuilding his shot, I’d like to see Romeo get a couple months of reps in Portland once GH and Smart are back, but before too long, the C’s are going to have to find 10-15 minutes a night for Romeo in Boston, even if he’s not the best option for those minutes on the merits.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Probably, I think he's pretty underrated. People literally think he's a bad basketball player.
People think DeRozen is a bad basketball player because of advanced metrics, one of which says that his teams are better without him on the floor than with him. IIRC Bowiac has had some screeds of him.

I'm not particularly fond of his game; but that is subjective not objective.

I probably shouldn't have used "All-Star." If Romeo can develop his three-point shooting, he's going to be a really good player and a steal at #14.
 

PedroKsBambino

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DeRozan is much better than public analytics obsessed fans think, and also not as good (or as helpful to winning) as traditional box score stats suggest. The polarization in commentary on him has always been strange

It’s just too early to say Romeo shares DeRozan’s aversion to the three. Don’t think arbitrary ceiling guesstimates add to the discussion.

I like his slashing and finishing; he needs more than that to be valuable as others have said. But, it’s a strength to start from.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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People think DeRozen is a bad basketball player because of advanced metrics, one of which says that his teams are better without him on the floor than with him. IIRC Bowiac has had some screeds of him.

I'm not particularly fond of his game; but that is subjective not objective.

I probably shouldn't have used "All-Star." If Romeo can develop his three-point shooting, he's going to be a really good player and a steal at #14.
I'll keep it as vague as possible and say my ceiling on him is "max contract" after his rookie deal. I'm high on him.
 

benhogan

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the C’s are going to have to find 10-15 minutes a night for Romeo in Boston, even if he’s not the best option for those minutes on the merits.
I'm 100% behind this, play the long game, "2021 and beyond". The spread between Romeo and Semi over 10-15mpg isn't great enough to even sway a game IMO.

I realize this can come off as prospect humping. BUT the cornerstone players Tatum/Brown are 21/23 and will be around for the next 5-6 seasons. Finding and filling out the rest of the roster with guys under team/cost control is important for multiple seasons when Tatum/Brown will be entering their peek seasons.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I'm 100% behind this, play the long game, "2021 and beyond". The spread between Romeo and Semi over 10-15mpg isn't great enough to even sway a game IMO.

I realize this can come off as prospect humping. BUT the cornerstone players Tatum/Brown are 21/23 and will be around for the next 5-6 seasons. Finding and filling out the rest of the roster with guys under team/cost control is important for multiple seasons when Tatum/Brown will be entering their peek seasons.
Amen. I was thinking about the Jays, and how valuable two-way wings are, and realized they’re not exactly easy to find. Outside of our guys, who are the best young two-way wings right now? Let’s say under 24. Isaac is taking a leap on D, but can’t create for himself. Ingram doesn’t play D. I’ll count JJJ as a wing, he’s shooting 40% from 3 on 6 attempts per game and may take an Isaac-like leap on D soon. Anunoby, Huerter, the Bridges. Squint and maybe you see Porter Jr, Knox, the Browns. I’m probably missing some, but my point is that the most valuable piece on the board is pretty hard to come by, and we have two of them. And watching how they impact the game so early in their careers, it makes complete sense why Danny took Romeo over the bigs who seemed to fill a position of need. As you said, he’s got the requisite balance and strength, he’s shown poise and awareness, and I have no doubt this is one of the best developmental situations for him in the league. Considering the growth curve of the Jays, Romeo has shown enough already to warrant measured prospect humping as a two-way wing.

The development of the Jays has changed the whole outlook of this team. We still need a pick and roll maestro like Kemba, or a near enough approximation (if the Memphis pick conveys, I’m taking a long look at Nico Mannion), and some defensive bigs, but we have a really exciting core. If Romeo hits, and we can get value out of the Grant, Rob, Tre, Carsen, Tacko, Jevontes, we’re really cooking.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Amen. I was thinking about the Jays, and how valuable two-way wings are, and realized they’re not exactly easy to find. Outside of our guys, who are the best young two-way wings right now? Let’s say under 24. Isaac is taking a leap on D, but can’t create for himself. Ingram doesn’t play D. I’ll count JJJ as a wing, he’s shooting 40% from 3 on 6 attempts per game and may take an Isaac-like leap on D soon. Anunoby, Huerter, the Bridges. Squint and maybe you see Porter Jr, Knox, the Browns. I’m probably missing some, but my point is that the most valuable piece on the board is pretty hard to come by, and we have two of them. And watching how they impact the game so early in their careers, it makes complete sense why Danny took Romeo over the bigs who seemed to fill a position of need. As you said, he’s got the requisite balance and strength, he’s shown poise and awareness, and I have no doubt this is one of the best developmental situations for him in the league. Considering the growth curve of the Jays, Romeo has shown enough already to warrant measured prospect humping as a two-way wing.

The development of the Jays has changed the whole outlook of this team. We still need a pick and roll maestro like Kemba, or a near enough approximation (if the Memphis pick conveys, I’m taking a long look at Nico Mannion), and some defensive bigs, but we have a really exciting core. If Romeo hits, and we can get value out of the Grant, Rob, Tre, Carsen, Tacko, Jevontes, we’re really cooking.
Siakam comes immediately to mind.
 

lovegtm

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Langford had a couple more impressive defensive possessions moving his feet. He had the one bad one early where it looked like he was expecting help if he forced baseline, but Tatum's man cut to clear the paint; Romeo recovered for the block with his infinite wingspan.

His 3-ball looks kind of flat off his hand.
 

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He sure looks like he belongs out there on the NBA floor. I was hoping to see him on the floor with JB & JT and just when I thought I was gonna get it (first half) Granite subbed in for JT. But then in the second half we got that pairing for a few minutes and they all looked good together.

When Gord and Marcus get back someone is giving up a lot of minutes, likely Semi, Grant, Devonte and Romeo. I like the first three but agree with HoganBaynes that it would be awful nice to see him get 10-15 minutes a game even if it's against the weak sisters. Or especially because they'll be games where he is likely to add something with Charlotte type teams as the ceiling of competition.

As B-Robb points out this morning a 3 and D wing, of the bench, has been on the top of many people's lists for Danny to acquire for the stretch run. We might already have him.
 

lovegtm

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He sure looks like he belongs out there on the NBA floor. I was hoping to see him on the floor with JB & JT and just when I thought I was gonna get it (first half) Granite subbed in for JT. But then in the second half we got that pairing for a few minutes and they all looked good together.

When Gord and Marcus get back someone is giving up a lot of minutes, likely Semi, Grant, Devonte and Romeo. I like the first three but agree with HoganBaynes that it would be awful nice to see him get 10-15 minutes a game even if it's against the weak sisters. Or especially because they'll be games where he is likely to add something with Charlotte type teams as the ceiling of competition.

As B-Robb points out this morning a 3 and D wing, of the bench, has been on the top of many people's lists for Danny to acquire for the stretch run. We might already have him.
Some of the minutes stuff will work itself out when injuries inevitably happen, and when the team does planned rest throughout January. Agree that getting Romeo minutes needs to be a priority--his potential is way higher than that of any other bench guy they have, and he's already earning Brad's trust on D, which is the necessary condition for any young Celtics player to get time.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He sure looks like he belongs out there on the NBA floor. I was hoping to see him on the floor with JB & JT and just when I thought I was gonna get it (first half) Granite subbed in for JT. But then in the second half we got that pairing for a few minutes and they all looked good together.

When Gord and Marcus get back someone is giving up a lot of minutes, likely Semi, Grant, Devonte and Romeo. I like the first three but agree with HoganBaynes that it would be awful nice to see him get 10-15 minutes a game even if it's against the weak sisters. Or especially because they'll be games where he is likely to add something with Charlotte type teams as the ceiling of competition.

As B-Robb points out this morning a 3 and D wing, of the bench, has been on the top of many people's lists for Danny to acquire for the stretch run. We might already have him.
At the very least, I'm guessing we'll see Romeo during long home stands.
 

the moops

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I wouldn't be all that surprised if Romeo made an all star game or two.
You should be very surprised if he does indeed make an all star game or two. #14 and later picks often become solid bench players, occasionally become starters on good teams, and rarely become multiple all stars
 

lovegtm

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You should be very surprised if he does indeed make an all star game or two. #14 and later picks often become solid bench players, occasionally become starters on good teams, and rarely become multiple all stars
95% of posters here (definitely cesar crespo included) are sophisticated NBA fans who know quite well the odds of various draft slots working out. “Not that surprised”, in that context, doesn’t have to mean “greater than 50%”, or even 5%.

The “well, actually” thing whenever someone dares to talk about a young player’s possible upside is boring as hell and adds little value to discussion. We all know the odds.
 

benhogan

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Some of the minutes stuff will work itself out when injuries inevitably happen, and when the team does planned rest throughout January. Agree that getting Romeo minutes needs to be a priority--his potential is way higher than that of any other bench guy they have, and he's already earning Brad's trust on D, which is the necessary condition for any young Celtics player to get time.
picking nits here

I have Romeo 1A and Granite 1B as high priority/potential bench guys for the betterment of the Celtics future society.

Grant is less than a year older than Romeo, even though he sounds/acts like he is 10yrs older. Higher floor/lower ceiling will be the argument, but lost in the recent Romeo hoopla is Grant's absurdly efficient games.

I see future Granite as a really nice compliment to future All-Stars, Brown/Tatum. Someone that won't be concerned with his counting numbers but will be a +/- savant. It's really amazing, with his style of play, that he ended up 2x POY in the SEC. The guy is a winner and those that watch him up close recognize that IMO.
 
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lovegtm

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picking nits here

I have Romeo 1A and Granite 1B as high priority/potential bench guys for the betterment of the Celtics future society.

Grant is less than a year older than Romeo, even though he sounds/acts like he is 10yrs older. Higher floor/lower ceiling will be the argument, but lost in the recent Romeo hoopla is Grant's absurdly efficient games.

I see future Granite as a really nice compliment to future All-Stars, Brown/Tatum. Someone that won't be concerned with his counting numbers but will be a +/- savant.
Agree Grant needs minutes. But when you’re talking about potential upside in the NBA, realistic primary scoring option potential always wins, especially when coupled with strong defensive physical tools.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Agree Grant needs minutes. But when you’re talking about potential upside in the NBA, realistic primary scoring option potential always wins, especially when coupled with strong defensive physical tools.
If we are going off just potential upside, I think the better 1A and 1B are Langford and Time Lord. Grant Williams has a pretty high floor.
 

benhogan

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If we are going off just potential upside, I think the better 1A and 1B are Langford and Time Lord. Grant Williams has a pretty high floor.
I'm probably higher on Grant's potential/ceiling than most. It's not a swipe at Romeo or TL's potential

and I might agree with you if TL could stay healthy.
Centers are fungible. I want them cheap, efficient, durable and aware.
 

TripleOT

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You should be very surprised if he does indeed make an all star game or two. #14 and later picks often become solid bench players, occasionally become starters on good teams, and rarely become multiple all stars
It's certainly a longer shot that a pick 14 and later becomes an a multiple all star, but there have been many of them.

The 2017 All Star game had eight multiple all stars in it picked after 14, Gasol, Lowry, Kawhi, Draymond, Milsap, IT, Butler, Giannis, plus one timer DeAndre Jordan. There were less top five picks playing, eight, than those selected 15 and later, nine.
2018 had four, Giannis, Lowry, Butler, and Draymond.
2019 has Giannis, Lowry, and two, possibly three that will probably be multi-all stars, in Middleton, Jokic, and Vucevic.
Six in 2016
Four in 2015, plus two one timers, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver
Three in 2014
Three in 2013
 

lovegtm

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It's certainly a longer shot that a pick 14 and later becomes an a multiple all star, but there have been many of them.

The 2017 All Star game had eight multiple all stars in it picked after 14, Gasol, Lowry, Kawhi, Draymond, Milsap, IT, Butler, Giannis, plus one timer DeAndre Jordan. There were less top five picks playing, eight, than those selected 15 and later, nine.
2018 had four, Giannis, Lowry, Butler, and Draymond.
2019 has Giannis, Lowry, and two, possibly three that will probably be multi-all stars, in Middleton, Jokic, and Vucevic.
Six in 2016
Four in 2015, plus two one timers, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver
Three in 2014
Three in 2013
You successfully well-actuallied the well-actually! High performance posting :cool:
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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You should be very surprised if he does indeed make an all star game or two. #14 and later picks often become solid bench players, occasionally become starters on good teams, and rarely become multiple all stars
I suspect that DA and his crew know exactly the past percentages of #14 draft picks reaching various milestones. I also suspect they know how top 5 high school recruits do.

here's an interesting article on high school recruits and NBA success. https://pudding.cool/2019/03/hype/ Amazingly, almost 20% of top 10 recruits become "Great" players. I'm sure DA and crew have taken a deep dive into this.
 

lovegtm

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I suspect that DA and his crew know exactly the past percentages of #14 draft picks reaching various milestones. I also suspect they know how top 5 high school recruits do.

here's an interesting article on high school recruits and NBA success. https://pudding.cool/2019/03/hype/ Amazingly, almost 20% of top 10 recruits become "Great" players. I'm sure DA and crew have taken a deep dive into this.
Interesting...I thought bowiac had reached an opposite conclusion, or rather more on the lines that it didn’t tell you anything more than college performance?

(Obviously when you’re drafting players, specific circumstances matter, and a lot of Langford’s drop in the draft due to his playing through injury for his team, rather than getting thumb surgery and shutting it down.)
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's certainly a longer shot that a pick 14 and later becomes an a multiple all star, but there have been many of them.

The 2017 All Star game had eight multiple all stars in it picked after 14, Gasol, Lowry, Kawhi, Draymond, Milsap, IT, Butler, Giannis, plus one timer DeAndre Jordan. There were less top five picks playing, eight, than those selected 15 and later, nine.
2018 had four, Giannis, Lowry, Butler, and Draymond.
2019 has Giannis, Lowry, and two, possibly three that will probably be multi-all stars, in Middleton, Jokic, and Vucevic.
Six in 2016
Four in 2015, plus two one timers, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver
Three in 2014
Three in 2013
It's not an expected outcome but it happens enough that I'm not sure you can even call it "rare." He was a lottery pick. Thanks for the list. I went and made my own.

I also realize going by draft position is completely stupid and pointless, but just for fun: 14th overall picks


2018: Michael Porter Jr (probably still too early to tell but the draft from 14 on doesn't look to have any real hits. There's Time Lord, Mitchell Robinson, Shamet. There's potential.)
2017: Bam Adebayo (John Collins 19th, Jarret Allen 22nd, OG 23rd, Thomas Bryant 42nd) Bam is definitely going to make a few all star games. I'd guess at least one other player drafted 14th+ in the draft will make one at some point too.
2016. Denzel Valentine (Siakam 27th)
2015: Cameron Payne (Harrell was drafted 32nd, Holmes 37th. Neither will make an all star game.)
2014: T.J Warren (Jokic was 41st. Capela was 25th but will probably never make an all star game.
2013: Shabazz Mohammaed (the pick after was Giannis. Rudy Gobert was 27th)

jury is still out on Michael Porter Jr and Denzel Valentine. We'd be ecstatic with Bam, pretty happy with Warren.

Payne didn't get a 2nd contract after his rookie deal. Mohammed got a 1 year deal after his rookie deal and was later cut. Valentine actually had a decent 2nd year but missed all of last year to injury. I wonder if he's on the block, actually. Didn't realize he's already 26 too.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I suspect that DA and his crew know exactly the past percentages of #14 draft picks reaching various milestones. I also suspect they know how top 5 high school recruits do.

here's an interesting article on high school recruits and NBA success. https://pudding.cool/2019/03/hype/ Amazingly, almost 20% of top 10 recruits become "Great" players. I'm sure DA and crew have taken a deep dive into this.
Was the Celtics grabbing Langford at #14 seen as a reach, or was #14 about where he was expected to go? To the extent he was limited by injury (ie, if his poor shooting last year was injury-related), he might have some upside.
 

lovegtm

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Was the Celtics grabbing Langford at #14 seen as a reach, or was #14 about where he was expected to go? To the extent he was limited by injury (ie, if his poor shooting last year was injury-related), he might have some upside.
He was seen as a top 5-10ish talent who dropped mainly because of shooting concerns and maybe some defensive focus concerns. Definitely not a reach, more of a swing-for-the fences pick.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think they got pretty good value at all their picks this year. Most years we get a bunch of wtf players but this year the board got the players they wanted for the most part.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's not an expected outcome but it happens enough that I'm not sure you can even call it "rare." He was a lottery pick. Thanks for the list. I went and made my own.

I also realize going by draft position is completely stupid and pointless, but just for fun: 14th overall picks


2018: Michael Porter Jr (probably still too early to tell but the draft from 14 on doesn't look to have any real hits. There's Time Lord, Mitchell Robinson, Shamet. There's potential.)
2017: Bam Adebayo (John Collins 19th, Jarret Allen 22nd, OG 23rd, Thomas Bryant 42nd) Bam is definitely going to make a few all star games. I'd guess at least one other player drafted 14th+ in the draft will make one at some point too.
2016. Denzel Valentine (Siakam 27th)
2015: Cameron Payne (Harrell was drafted 32nd, Holmes 37th. Neither will make an all star game.)
2014: T.J Warren (Jokic was 41st. Capela was 25th but will probably never make an all star game.
2013: Shabazz Mohammaed (the pick after was Giannis. Rudy Gobert was 27th)

jury is still out on Michael Porter Jr and Denzel Valentine. We'd be ecstatic with Bam, pretty happy with Warren.

Payne didn't get a 2nd contract after his rookie deal. Mohammed got a 1 year deal after his rookie deal and was later cut. Valentine actually had a decent 2nd year but missed all of last year to injury. I wonder if he's on the block, actually. Didn't realize he's already 26 too.
Here's the complete analysis of the first round from 1980 to 2016: https://www.thebackofclass.com/home/2017/9/4/a-complete-analysis-of-the-nba-draft.

Apparently there are 4 players draft #14 who were All-Stars, and they totaled 20 All-Star seasons. The best player ever drafted #14 is Clyde Drexler. In the 1980s, in addition to Drexler, there were several very good players drafted. Here's the list: Tim Hardaway; Dan Majerle; Tellis Frank; Walter Berry; Alfredrick Hughes; Michael Cage; Drexler; Lester Conner; Herb Williams; and Wes Matthews.

Since then, there hasn't been much.

Hopefully Romeo breaks that streak.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Here's the complete analysis of the first round from 1980 to 2016: https://www.thebackofclass.com/home/2017/9/4/a-complete-analysis-of-the-nba-draft.

Apparently there are 4 players draft #14 who were All-Stars, and they totaled 20 All-Star seasons. The best player ever drafted #14 is Clyde Drexler. In the 1980s, in addition to Drexler, there were several very good players drafted. Here's the list: Tim Hardaway; Dan Majerle; Tellis Frank; Walter Berry; Alfredrick Hughes; Michael Cage; Drexler; Lester Conner; Herb Williams; and Wes Matthews.

Since then, there hasn't been much.

Hopefully Romeo breaks that streak.
I'm guessing Bam breaks it before then but Romeo definitely has upside.
 

TripleOT

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Here's the complete analysis of the first round from 1980 to 2016: https://www.thebackofclass.com/home/2017/9/4/a-complete-analysis-of-the-nba-draft.

Apparently there are 4 players draft #14 who were All-Stars, and they totaled 20 All-Star seasons. The best player ever drafted #14 is Clyde Drexler. In the 1980s, in addition to Drexler, there were several very good players drafted. Here's the list: Tim Hardaway; Dan Majerle; Tellis Frank; Walter Berry; Alfredrick Hughes; Michael Cage; Drexler; Lester Conner; Herb Williams; and Wes Matthews.

Since then, there hasn't been much.

Hopefully Romeo breaks that streak.
Excellent trolling with the "very good players" list, lol. Marcus Morris was picked 14th in 2011.

Let's not forget Boston's success at 14 with Eric Williams.