Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022

Heating up in the bullpen

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The Athletic recently had an article listing all the players that might be available for a trade

https://theathletic.com/3367735/2022/06/17/mlb-trade-deadline-2022-targets/

The only OF on that list that are appealing and obtainable for the Red Sox are

Andrew Benintendi
Mitch Haniger
Trey Mancini

1B that fit this profile

Josh Bell
Seth Brown(a career .769 OPS against RHP but also kind of just sucks)
Garrett Cooper signed through next season .834 OPS
CJ Cron, signed through next season, probably out of our prospect price range
Looks like that article is a couple weeks old now.
Today the Mariners are a game above .500 (pending the outcome of their game against the Jays) and the Orioles are only two games under. The Marlins are only three under with a +4 run differential and the Rangers just four under with a +13 RD.
With three weeks before the trade deadline a lot can still happen — Os have won 7 straight to really change their place in the standings; Ms 6 straight and 9 of 10.
As of today, the most likely sellers are: Royals, Tigers, A’s, Nats, Pirates, Cubs, Reds, Rockies, D’backs. Angels should be, but probably just around the edges as they’ve got Ohtani one more year.
1B Christian Walker of the D’backs looks interesting. Right handed bat. All his numbers are below his expected numbers. His BB% of 13.4 and K% of 19.0 are both better than his career averages. BTV has his value less than Dalbec’s, maybe due to team control; but despite being 31, 2023 is Walker’s first arb year. Could make sense as a platoon bat for Franchy this year. (SSS, but 186 wRC+ in 82 PA vs lefties this year; while Bobby D is “mashing” lefties at a 113 wRC+ in 72 PA.)
 

Apisith

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What about Ohtani for Mayer, Yorke and Casas? Too little? Would Ohtani sign an extension for 8 years and $320m, meaning we would have him for 9 years?

It's obviously a crazy trade but I'm wondering what would get it done. The Angels are going nowhere and losing him for nothing would be terrible management. We have the prospects and the payroll room.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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What about Ohtani for Mayer, Yorke and Casas? Too little? Would Ohtani sign an extension for 8 years and $320m, meaning we would have him for 9 years?

It's obviously a crazy trade but I'm wondering what would get it done. The Angels are going nowhere and losing him for nothing would be terrible management. We have the prospects and the payroll room.
I think you’d have to re-sign Devers and X and throw them both in to get close on that one.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What about Ohtani for Mayer, Yorke and Casas? Too little? Would Ohtani sign an extension for 8 years and $320m, meaning we would have him for 9 years?

It's obviously a crazy trade but I'm wondering what would get it done. The Angels are going nowhere and losing him for nothing would be terrible management. We have the prospects and the payroll room.
The Angels are going nowhere, but neither is Ohtani. They're not exactly shy about throwing money around (Trout, Rendon, Pujols, etc) even if they're not great at putting a solid overall team on the field. They have the payroll room as well. Aside from Trout, Rendon, and Iglesias, they don't have any significant salary on the books beyond 2023. Moreno isn't going to let him go.
 

grimshaw

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What about Ohtani for Mayer, Yorke and Casas? Too little? Would Ohtani sign an extension for 8 years and $320m, meaning we would have him for 9 years?

It's obviously a crazy trade but I'm wondering what would get it done. The Angels are going nowhere and losing him for nothing would be terrible management. We have the prospects and the payroll room.
It would be like the Mariners trading Ichiro in his prime. It would never happen. He's the best player in baseball and it wouldn't shock me if he eclipsed $500 mill, not just on performance but that he is so uniquely marketable.

Not to mention how much it would alienate Mike Trout.
 
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YTF

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Offer them Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. They don't have to worry about multiple series in Toronto and it would solve the roster issues those two create. That would just leave Sale and he would be easy to work around for one series, nor is he likely to be as depended on as those two have been this year.
Yep, considering how rock solid this bullpen is there's really no need for Houck to hang around for the other 75 games that won't be played in Canada.

53131
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Hey, if this team's success rides solely on the success of Tanner Houck, then that kind of says it all, doesn't it?

I'm pretty sure they can survive, and thrive, without him moving forward, if not this season.
 

YTF

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Hey, if this team's success rides solely on the success of Tanner Houck, then that kind of says it all, doesn't it?

I'm pretty sure they can survive, and thrive, without him moving forward, if not this season.
Solely? ATM he's one of the most important pieces in the pen, isn't that why everyone is so pissed off about his vax status? Who do you hope to replace him with?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Solely? ATM he's one of the most important pieces in the pen, isn't that why everyone is so pissed off about his vax status? Who do you hope to replace him with?
I advocated trading him and Duran in a package but would have looked for a bullpen arm with at least equal production value (probably more in economic impact) than Houck.
Who that would be I don’t know….
But since Duran is getting vaxxed, my view changed. Still not sure about Houck but it’s still a long-term issue for late season and playoffs….
 

chawson

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With Kiké having another setback, I wonder if we’re more in the market for an outfielder than had appeared. I’ve thought that it makes more sense to cut JBJ, make a Cordero/Refsnyder platoon and trade for a first baseman better than Bob. But maybe another outfielder makes sense too.

I like Hunter Dozier, but there’s another guy I’m interested in who could fit the bill too. He plays for a bad NL team and has got the 6th highest HR/FB in MLB and the 14th best ISO, a few points ahead of Devers. He’s also got the lowest/worst BABIP in baseball this year. Seems like a savvy, Bloom-style pickup.

Jordan Luplow
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Solely? ATM he's one of the most important pieces in the pen, isn't that why everyone is so pissed off about his vax status? Who do you hope to replace him with?
This season? In the closer role? Whitlock, when he's back. He can even pitch more than an inning now and again. Strahm can back him up.

Moving forward? Might be the same answer, might depend on what's available.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This season? In the closer role? Whitlock, when he's back. He can even pitch more than an inning now and again. Strahm can back him up.

Moving forward? Might be the same answer, might depend on what's available.
Whitlock has thrown back to back games twice in his career. He's coming off the IL so I can't imagine Cora will be keen to stress him with multiple short outings in close succession. He's not likely to be the nominal closer even if the job is open.

If the only reason to trade Houck is because he is not vaccinated, there's no rational reason to trade him at all. It doesn't strike me as a move that improves the club to go from Houck missing just three games at the end of the season to not having him on the team at all. If there's a deal that make the team decidedly better for now and the future that requires Houck's inclusion, so be it. Trading him just to be rid of his unvaccinated ass is asinine.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Houck also goes multiple innings, and back to back to back games

i wish he was vaccinated. I also wish other players i rooted for weren’t assholes. But it rarely works out that you have a whole team full of likable guys with good politics.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Framed as a moral issue or something, I agree. But Houck is available for 95 percent of the regular season, and potentially a significant part of the postseason. So he's functionally 95 percent as valuable a player for us as he should be. That’s per the terms of next year’s schedule, where we visit Toronto once fewer than we do now. As it stands, there's a very good chance we play Toronto in the first round of the postseason as 4 and 5 seeds. That should be valued accordingly too.

But the real reason I'm in favor of trading Houck is that he's likely more valuable to another team as a starter than he is in our bullpen. I trust Bloom's ability to find bullpen arms out of thin air (Schreiber, Strahm, Danish, Davis) and we have a slew of these guys coming up (Bello, Winckowski, Walter, Seabold, Mata, Murphy, Ward, Crawford, German, Kelly, Politi, Ort), plus Whitlock. I'd rather elevate a player to Houck's role as our closer from this pool of available candidates than flatten his value as a potentially very good starter.
If Houck's best value is as a starter (and I agree that it is), then why not hang on to him and put him back into the starting mix? Obviously at this stage in the season, converting him back to the rotation would be difficult and would come a bit late to be helpful for the current rotation predicament so it doesn't have to happen now. But next year the rotation will be in need and Houck should definitely be considered a candidate for it (as should Whitlock).

I'm fine with trading Houck if the return is good and he's an essential part of getting it done. I strongly disagree with the notion of trading him for the sake of trading him, whether it's for moral reasons or because he might have more value for someone else. If someone values him that much, let them come ask about him. No need to actively shop him around.
 

Ganthem

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If Houck's best value is as a starter (and I agree that it is), then why not hang on to him and put him back into the starting mix? Obviously at this stage in the season, converting him back to the rotation would be difficult and would come a bit late to be helpful for the current rotation predicament so it doesn't have to happen now. But next year the rotation will be in need and Houck should definitely be considered a candidate for it (as should Whitlock).

I'm fine with trading Houck if the return is good and he's an essential part of getting it done. I strongly disagree with the notion of trading him for the sake of trading him, whether it's for moral reasons or because he might have more value for someone else. If someone values him that much, let them come ask about him. No need to actively shop him around.
Cora doesn't seem ok letting Houck go through the order a third time. I think if Houck is traded some team will not get cute with him and will see what he can do a third time through the order. I think they will be rewarded for their faith.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I note the Angels are losing again, which led me to wonder if they had anything worth selling. They do, but it's basically only one guy: Noah Syndergaard. I would be absolutely stunned if Bloom went there.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Cora doesn't seem ok letting Houck go through the order a third time. I think if Houck is traded some team will not get cute with him and will see what he can do a third time through the order. I think they will be rewarded for their faith.
Wondering what you see in him that Cora doesn’t, that most current managers don’t see with most current starters.
 

Ganthem

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Wondering what you see in him that Cora doesn’t, that most current managers don’t see with most current starters.
He has pitched decently when he was a starter. There is no way to say with absolute certainty that he will be effective going through the order a third time, but there is no way to know for sure unless he is given the opportunity. I also get that you have an asinine need to disagree with everything I say lose, but every other club is doing it is not a good reason to implement something. In the case of the Sox the bullpen is a weak point. Thus it becomes necessary for the starters to step up in order to not overly expose the bullpen.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I reply to posts that make comments that intrigue me. Your suggestion that Houck has something that other managers will see that they don’t generally see with their existing starters and that Cora is missing intrigues me. One would usually say something like Houck should be allowed a third time thru the lineup if they had a reason basked in mechanics, history, comparables, or something other than “different is good“
 

chawson

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Cora doesn't seem ok letting Houck go through the order a third time. I think if Houck is traded some team will not get cute with him and will see what he can do a third time through the order. I think they will be rewarded for their faith.
Well, this year Houck’s been unable to hack through the second time through the order. In those situations he’s given up 11 runs in 11 2/3 innings.
 

E5 Yaz

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Well, this year Houck’s been unable to hack through the second time through the order. In those situations he’s given up 11 runs in 11 2/3 innings.
Exactly. This stuff is easy to look up and use as support for the points being made ... as opposed to nebulously saying that the Red Sox are trying to "get cute" with Houck
 

Jed Zeppelin

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There is a long long long history of young starters with electric stuff not being able to hack it, often for lack of a quality third pitch. Probably the best reliever we’ve ever had in Boston was one such player. There’s nothing cute about maximizing the contributions of a player in such a way that they also happen to intersect with your team’s needs.

What does sound like getting cute is trading away a quality reliever under the assumption you can just find another. Relief pitching is the biggest crapshoot in the game. Hell, how many times have the Sox alone made big trades for name relievers and gotten nothing out of it? Maybe there is a hypothetical trade for a legit non-rental corner OF that makes sense but I don’t think the fact we aren’t theoretically maximizing his value is a reason to move him.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Don't know if this is being discussed elsewhere, but MLBN says NYY considering getting Benintendi, dealing Gallo. We could really use Benintendi, imho. Too much money? (He seems to be on only a one-year deal of $8.5m.) https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/kansas-city-royals/#:~:text=ROYALS PAYROLLS Year Opening, $111,416,246 (25) 19 more rows
Several posters here have noted that the Sox don’t need another lefty OF.
On a bigger picture note, any chance for a Trade Deadline Rumors and Deals thread in the MLB forum?
 

Ganthem

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I reply to posts that make comments that intrigue me. Your suggestion that Houck has something that other managers will see that they don’t generally see with their existing starters and that Cora is missing intrigues me. One would usually say something like Houck should be allowed a third time thru the lineup if they had a reason basked in mechanics, history, comparables, or something other than “different is good“
Don't worry Lose I got that also. Looking at Houck's career stats he has 46.2 innings that are first time through the order as a starter. He has a 0.96 era. Second time through the order is 39.1 innings for a 4.12 ear. Third time through the order is 6.1 innings at a 14.21 era. Two things jump out. First off that 4.12 era the second time does not disqualify him as a starter and that 14.21 era the third time is irrelvant due to how small the sample size is. Which brings me to my overall point. The total amount of innings that he has as a starter is not enough to say for sure if he belongs in the rotation or the bullpen. Right now with the state of the pen Houck belongs in the bullpen. Going forward I think he needs a chance to be a starter including going through the order the third time. Part of him not getting that opportunity is when Cora was doing his poorly concieved idea of limiting innings for the starters during the start of the season, but it also goes to previous seasons.
 

E5 Yaz

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Going forward I think he needs a chance to be a starter including going through the order the third time.
The problem with this thesis is that it runs counter to current thinking across MLB, not just with the Red Sox

As of Tuesday morning, there had been 244 games played in the 2022 season. Double that number to account for each game having a starting pitcher for each team, and you've got 488 starts. Per FanGraphs, those 488 starts yielded 2,302.67 innings pitched, or 4.72 per start.
bleacherreport.com/articles/2955675-the-newest-trend-taking-over-mlb-in-2022-and-beyond

The "third-time-through-the-order" starter is no longer the norm, it is the exception ... and nothing we've seen from Houck as a starter -- in Boston or in his minor league career -- indicates that he is an exception to the trend
 

Ganthem

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So numbers that disagree with your hypothesis are irrelevant?


Got it.

I can’t argue with your logic. I appreciate the analysis.
Did I ever say that lose? When dealing with numbers you want as large a sample size as possible. So rather then just depend on this season's numbers I decided to get a macro look at things. I know you know this. Please get off your high horse and stop trying go pick a fight with me.
 

Ganthem

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The problem with this thesis is that it runs counter to current thinking across MLB, not just with the Red Sox


bleacherreport.com/articles/2955675-the-newest-trend-taking-over-mlb-in-2022-and-beyond

The "third-time-through-the-order" starter is no longer the norm, it is the exception ... and nothing we've seen from Houck as a starter -- in Boston or in his minor league career -- indicates that he is an exception to the trend
For the Sox maybe this year though it has become the norm due to the weakness of tge bullpen.
 

Rovin Romine

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There is a long long long history of young starters with electric stuff not being able to hack it, often for lack of a quality third pitch. Probably the best reliever we’ve ever had in Boston was one such player. There’s nothing cute about maximizing the contributions of a player in such a way that they also happen to intersect with your team’s needs.

What does sound like getting cute is trading away a quality reliever under the assumption you can just find another. Relief pitching is the biggest crapshoot in the game. Hell, how many times have the Sox alone made big trades for name relievers and gotten nothing out of it? Maybe there is a hypothetical trade for a legit non-rental corner OF that makes sense but I don’t think the fact we aren’t theoretically maximizing his value is a reason to move him.
I dunno. Flash’s slider was pretty good.
 

scottyno

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For the Sox maybe this year though it has become the norm due to the weakness of tge bullpen.
League average team has faced 367 batters 3rd time through. Sox have faced 309, so no it hasn't become the norm for them.

Last year over a full season the league average team faced 665 and the Sox faced 648.
 

Sprowl

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Drop the politics or take it to V&N. I will be deleting a raft of posts.
 

LoLsapien

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Sorry if this was already brought up but how about Brandon Drury on the Reds. Journeyman guy on a cheap "expiring" contract, so shouldn't require much in prospects, but having a great year at the plate- .878 OPS with a not outrageous .310 babip. Has played 1b/3b/OF at the major league level. Couldn't tell you if he plays any of them well because I don't understand fangraphs defensive stats. But, he can't be THAT much worse than Franchy at 1st which could let him play back in the OF (sorry Jackie) and swing over to 3rd if Devers is out for a while.

It's really sad that Jackie can't hit anymore, he's still one of my favorite people on the team. Banners fly forever and all but I really love being able to root for the actual people that wear the uniform.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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My thought was that JBJ and Duran are not significant pieces and could be replaced. Which would leave 2 lefties and one righty (Refsnyder) in the OF.
You still haven’t bought a ticket on the Duran Train?
I was definitely there but think he may have figured something out- enough to be a productive everyday starter on a contender. Was still ready to dump him for his vax status, but after announcing that he would I’m definitely along for the ride- at least for a few stops….
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I’m a bit baffled at the general acceptance of Refsnyder as part of an improved solution. He’s been fine as a short term stop gap, but he had a good month for the Twins last year, too, before turning back into Rob Refsnyder. I really hope he isn’t more than a 4/5 OF in the 2d half.
 

chawson

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Sorry if this was already brought up but how about Brandon Drury on the Reds. Journeyman guy on a cheap "expiring" contract, so shouldn't require much in prospects, but having a great year at the plate- .878 OPS with a not outrageous .310 babip. Has played 1b/3b/OF at the major league level. Couldn't tell you if he plays any of them well because I don't understand fangraphs defensive stats. But, he can't be THAT much worse than Franchy at 1st which could let him play back in the OF (sorry Jackie) and swing over to 3rd if Devers is out for a while.

It's really sad that Jackie can't hit anymore, he's still one of my favorite people on the team. Banners fly forever and all but I really love being able to root for the actual people that wear the uniform.
Drury is interesting. He's playing really well and would certainly help, though I'd argue he's a little over his head. The Reds' ballpark plays like the 2nd best hitters park in baseball. Drury's hit a zesty .313/.364/.583 there, but only .231/.299/.488 on the road.

Those road marks are still quite good for a guy who can play multiple positions like he can. They're also, for better or worse, boosted by his ability to hit lefties -- a 177 wRC+ against them in 30 PA away from Cincinnati. If you just look at his numbers vs. right-handed pitchers away from Cincinnati, he's hit .215/.288/.430 in 104 PAs. That may be too nitpickily unfair to him given his excellent season, but "vs. RHP away from Cincinnati" is hitting situation we'd be most counting on him for.
 

scottyno

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My thought was that JBJ and Duran are not significant pieces and could be replaced. Which would leave 2 lefties and one righty (Refsnyder) in the OF.
It's pretty unlikely that Benintendi is much better than Duran over the last 2-3 months of the season. Especially when they'll have 1 possibly 2 OF spots to fill next year, finding out if he's a viable option now seems pretty helpful.

Unless they have a decent idea that Kike won't be back for a long time, if at all, outfield doesn't really seem like much of a need at the moment, especially left handed OF.
 

LoLsapien

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Drury is interesting. He's playing really well and would certainly help, though I'd argue he's a little over his head. The Reds' ballpark plays like the 2nd best hitters park in baseball. Drury's hit a zesty .313/.364/.583 there, but only .231/.299/.488 on the road.

Those road marks are still quite good for a guy who can play multiple positions like he can. They're also, for better or worse, boosted by his ability to hit lefties -- a 177 wRC+ against them in 30 PA away from Cincinnati. If you just look at his numbers vs. right-handed pitchers away from Cincinnati, he's hit .215/.288/.430 in 104 PAs. That may be too nitpickily unfair to him given his excellent season, but "vs. RHP away from Cincinnati" is hitting situation we'd be most counting on him for.
Ballpark adjustments have huge error bars though. Cinci is second halfway through this year, sure, but in a full year 2021 it was 5th (Fenway 6th) and it was 11th in 2019 (Fenway 10th!). In bizarre world 2020 Cinci was 4th, Boston 3rd. Probably need to look at spray charts to make anything of Drury's home/away charts, right?
 

chawson

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Ballpark adjustments have huge error bars though. Cinci is second halfway through this year, sure, but in a full year 2021 it was 5th (Fenway 6th) and it was 11th in 2019 (Fenway 10th!). In bizarre world 2020 Cinci was 4th, Boston 3rd. Probably need to look at spray charts to make anything of Drury's home/away charts, right?
I’m not sure what you’re looking at but I’m seeing Cincinnati higher than that overall, and for right-handed batters, here. Regardless Drury may not be my first choice but he’d be a great addition.
 

LoLsapien

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I’m not sure what you’re looking at but I’m seeing Cincinnati higher than that overall, and for right-handed batters, here. Regardless Drury may not be my first choice but he’d be a great addition.
I've never looked at that site, thanks! I was looking at the individual year data on ESPN. Sorry if that link is formatted like crap. Anyways,I found your initial response to be a really thoughtful/interesting player breakdown (tear down?) so I'm kind of curious what situations make ballpark factors relevant. Like, why does Drury (just for example) have such huge home/away splits and is there reason to believe he might get a similar advantage at Fenway? Fenway having a virtually identical 3 year rolling park adjustment factor (according to the savant link you posted). Thanks Chawson
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I've never looked at that site, thanks! I was looking at the individual year data on ESPN. Sorry if that link is formatted like crap. Anyways,I found your initial response to be a really thoughtful/interesting player breakdown (tear down?) so I'm kind of curious what situations make ballpark factors relevant. Like, why does Drury (just for example) have such huge home/away splits and is there reason to believe he might get a similar advantage at Fenway? Fenway having a virtually identical 3 year rolling park adjustment factor (according to the savant link you posted). Thanks Chawson
I’m far from the best or even a decent insightful poster here. In fact I’m pretty lazy… but I want to just say that something about this post by Lurker LOLSapien is very good. I hope you post more here.
 

nolasoxfan

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I’m far from the best or even a decent insightful poster here. In fact I’m pretty lazy… but I want to just say that something about this post by Lurker LOLSapien is very good. I hope you post more here.
Co-signed. A refreshing breeze of intellectual curiosity and humility. Thanks, @LoLsapien, for reminding me of how important these behaviors/traits are.
 

YTF

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My thought was that JBJ and Duran are not significant pieces and could be replaced. Which would leave 2 lefties and one righty (Refsnyder) in the OF.
I think there are a few things that make Duran significant (not irreplaceable, but significant) in respects to where the team is ATM. He's really been the only guy who has done anything consistently significant out of the lead off spot. SSS, but it's been working out pretty well so far. Also if (big if) he can continue to do the job the Sox have one less defensive position to worry about heading into next season. With all of that in mind he could certainly be replaced. If that happens via trade he will need to be by someone who would be more than a rental as Duran may be shaping up to be the oft desired young, cost controlled player who isn't FA eligible until 2028. Of course that also makes him an attractive chip in the next couple of weeks if he continues getting on base in front of Devers, JDM and Bogaerts.