Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022

[papelbonafide58]

He can be optioned, but how is he not Bobby Dalbec redux or a RHH Franchy? Other than he hasn't ever played 1B?

Basically I think they have enough of these projects already. Unless one of the others goes to make room, there's not a ton to gain.

I think the key difference between Reyes and Dalbec/Franchy is that he's actually proven himself in the majors for multiple seasons. Yes, his numbers this year are concerning, but if he can he had with minimal risk to the club, I think he's worth a lottery ticket. His off year appears to be his anomaly, rather than a Danny Santana-type where his hot year was the anomaly

 

[Rovin Romine]

Especially since they haven’t really shown any kind of organizational ability to turn any of these types of players around.

You beat me to it. For whatever reason, what they have isn't working to develop younger hitters, or to keep the gains they've made. (I'm not expecting a perfect track record or anything like that, but. . .something would be nice.)

I think the nail in the coffin for me was Dalbec saying Schwarber broke down his swing, rebuilt it, and got him started on his late 2021 tear.

 

[chawson]

I don’t wanna speculate too much, but I wonder how much of Franmil’s struggles this year are weight related, maybe because of the lockout. He reportedly lost a lot of weight before the 2020 season and was terrific.

Tito’s analysis this week suggests he’s had a hard time catching up with fastballs like he did in the past, and that’s left him too vulnerable to offspeed and breaking pitches.

“He’s not been getting to the fastball as much as he has in the past,” Francona said of Reyes, who has struck out 104 times over 263 at-bats. “So when that happens, then you start cheating a little bit and then you’re kinda out front of one and behind the other.”

Considering his past success, I wonder if it’s less about skills decline than conditioning? Hard to say. Still seems like it could be worth a shot for ‘23-24 given our DH situation and resources.

 

[kazuneko]

He can be optioned, but how is he not Bobby Dalbec redux or a RHH Franchy? Other than he hasn't ever played 1B?
Basically I think they have enough of these projects already. Unless one of the others goes to make room, there's not a ton to gain.

Not all projects are of equal value. Dalbec, Cordero, and Reyes are all the same age, and they all have been disappointing this year. That said, prior to this year, Reyes has pretty clearly been the best hitter of the bunch, with Cordero pretty clearly the worst. Do we think this year’s performance means Reyes cannot be a major league regular ever again? Last year he was exactly the type of hitter we hoped Cordero could one day become. I think it might make a lot of sense to swap out one project for another.

 

[nvalvo]

Ok, but who would he be taking DH/LF PA from in Worcester? Devlin Granberg?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Ok, but who would he be taking DH/LF PA from in Worcester? Devlin Granberg?

A Landsman?

 

[Daniel_Son]

Valdez hit his second home run since joining Worcester on Wednesday. Smallest of sample sizes, I know... but man that power is enticing.

 

[YTF]

Not all projects are of equal value. Dalbec, Cordero, and Reyes are all the same age, and they all have been disappointing this year. That said, prior to this year, Reyes has pretty clearly been the best hitter of the bunch, with Cordero pretty clearly the worst. Do we think this year’s performance means Reyes cannot be a major league regular ever again? Last year he was exactly the type of hitter we hoped Cordero could one day become. I think it might make a lot of sense to swap out one project for another.

The guy's had a decent career to date and the team has had a serious lack of power this season. RF/DH candidate. Someone educate me of his FA status. Current status has him under team control until '25. How does that now change? Does that same status remain once another team signs him or does the DFA make him an unrestricted FA?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reyesfr01.shtml

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

He’s making $4.5m this year. He’s arb eligible next year, so figure if you pick him up you are paying him at least $4-$5m next year too.

 

[Cumberland Blues]

Well he got DFA'd at least in part because CLE didn't want to pay the arb award, so he'll get less than that if he's a FA now.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

NBC Sports says a lot of people within and without the organization were "confused" at the moves made at the deadline.

Re: a potential JDM trade, one exec had the following to say about what they were asking in return:

"An executive of a National League team that discussed a deal for Martinez in the hours leading up to the deadline said the Sox sought both major leaguers and prospects back for the slugger," Speier wrote. "Another said the team was aiming for top-tier prospects for rentals."

Another executive who discussed a Martinez deal with Boston told Speier, "[It] felt like they just wanted to see if someone would get dumb."

That's, uh, not a good strategy on deadline day, Chaim.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That's, uh, not a good strategy on deadline day, Chaim.

It is if you'd rather play out the year with what you have than picking up some more David Hamilton clones.

But if someone wants to get stupid... let them.

 

[moondog80]

NBC Sports says a lot of people within and without the organization were "confused" at the moves made at the deadline.

Re: a potential JDM trade, one exec had the following to say about what they were asking in return:



That's, uh, not a good strategy on deadline day, Chaim.

I dunno. They wanted to keep JD and Nate so they could make a run at the WC, and it was going to take a spectacular offer to get them to forgo that opportunity.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

I dunno. They wanted to keep JD and Nate so they could make a run at the WC, and it was going to take a spectacular offer to get them to forgo that opportunity.

I can understand wanting to keep Nate, but JD was not going to make or break this team's chances. It's not 2018 anymore.

 

[moondog80]

I can understand wanting to keep Nate, but JD was not going to make or break this team's chances. It's not 2018 anymore.

Who takes over as DH if JDM left? You don't think that person could have ended up being worth at least a win less in what will likely be a close race?

Getting rid of JDM would have hurt their chances at the postseason, which were a lot better a week ago than they are now. So they valued him accordingly. I have no problem with that.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Thinking this team was capable of making a run may have been a major misjudgment.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Thinking this team was capable of making a run may have been a major misjudgment.

This is where I'm at, but I know some people (apparently including Bloom) don't give up until mathematically eliminated, but, to me, there was a two-part question at the deadline that it feels like they tried to answer every possible way:

Can this team contend if healthy, and is it realistic to think they can outlast the iron of the league?

The answer to the first part is yes, because math, but the second part is no and there shouldn't be any two ways around that because they've PROVEN they can't do so consistently. Going into the deadline, they were winless in series within the division, their best result being a split or two of four-game series. They've played the Astros well, which is something, but the matchups may have just in their favor in those series. And it seems like Bloom answered yes or "let's find out" to the first part and "definitely maybe" to the second part, which boggles the mind.

Unless specifically ordered by JWH to do everything possible to make the playoffs this year (in the hopes of at least one or two home playoff games at Fenway), I think Bloom botched this deadline, either because nobody wanted to give him anything for the collection of flotsam and jetsam he was selling, or because he truly thinks that the team is about to turn a corner. Either way, it doesn't look good of the goal was to make the playoffs, nor does it look good if the goal was to get under the luxury tax (his biggest failure this year, and a damning one in my eyes, especially if dealing JDM is all it would have taken) and rebuild for the future.

As for who could have taken over at DH, literally anyone. It's not required to have the DH be one person who is a slugger and has no real position in the field, even though it's what a lot of teams do. But Dalbec, Devers, Franchy (if still here), Arroyo, and even Verdugo could be plug-and-play in that spot when they need a blow from being in the field or if the better defensive lineup doesn't call for any of them (or others) to don a glove. For some of those names, not having to field might actually help them focus better at the plate.

I am truly beginning to question his ability to do the job in this market. If he doesn't drastically improve this team in the off-season or commit to a full rebuild, I'm not sure he's going to last much longer than Ben Cherington did in the role.

 

[chawson]

Thinking this team was capable of making a run may have been a major misjudgment.

The way I see it, the thing that cost them was that every conceivably tradeable asset besides Vaz (and Verdugo and Bogaerts) became distressed in the weeks before the deadline, not any misplaced faith the team could make a run.

Eovaldi - hurt, lost velocity
JDM - hurt, then hit .167/.216/.267 from 6/27 to the deadline
Duran - hit .129/.169/.194 with a 46.3 K% from 7/7 to the deadline
Kiké - hurt
Cordero - hit .119/.213/.262 with a 51 K% from 7/8 to the deadline
Arroyo - hurt until 7/30, needed to cover 2B after Story injury
Hill - hurt
Wacha - hurt
Strahm - hurt
Dalbec - cratered after promising end to ‘21
Downs - hit .154/.171/.256 with a 51 K% before demoted on 7/29

Once all that happened, it made sense for Bloom to do what he did. Of course we don’t know the offers, but it would have been pointless to trade Eovaldi or JDM for more 35-40 FV prospects that need 40-man protection soon, because we’re already facing that roster crunch this winter. It’s also been reported that the Sox (and Guardians) were in pretty heavily on Sean Murphy, so the incentive to trade Vázquez was higher.

I think a QO for JDM and a creative deal to keep Eovaldi around, with money and years depending on how well his fastball comes back this year, makes sense for everyone.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Thinking this team was capable of making a run may have been a major misjudgment.

I agree and it seems like the Sox should have dealt Eo and JDM and ate some cash and even thrown in lower tier prospects to get a better return. I really think that Bloom is sort of in a weird spot trying to satisfy two demands at one- both build up the farm and "compete every year" while doing so... but he's likely 2 years away from being able to actually do it and not being able to be all in in either the re-build OR a blow-the-budget-and-win-now is difficult to triangulate and leave both rabid and casual fans happy.

 

[moondog80]

I agree and it seems like the Sox should have dealt Eo and JDM and ate some cash and even thrown in lower tier prospects to get a better return. I really think that Bloom is sort of in a weird spot trying to satisfy two demands at one- both build up the farm and "compete every year" while doing so... but he's likely 2 years away from being able to actually do it and not being able to be all in in either the re-build OR a blow-the-budget-and-win-now is difficult to triangulate and leave both rabid and casual fans happy.

Maybe the market just wasn't there? Willson Contreras wasn't traded. Carlos Rondon wasn't traded. Seems to me the most likely scenario is that he was willing to trade them, but the offers were so low that they were better off just going for the 1/3 shot that had at the playoffs?

 

[Max Power]

How is it Bloom's fault if other teams don't want what he was offering? Dropping the price so you're giving away talent for nothing doesn't accomplish anything. And what does getting under the tax matter? A couple slots higher in a compensation pick? The stiff penalties for going a bit over are gone in the current agreement.

I'd rather watch a .500 team play out the string in a season where they miss the playoffs than one that is stripped bare and loses 95 games. It seems like a lot of people would rather they come in last place and stop watching entirely if the team isn't guaranteed to get into the postseason. There's value to putting a watchable* product on the field in the present rather than scrapping it for a slightly increased chance of winning later.

* The KC series did not count as watchable

 

[chrisfont9]

The way I see it, the thing that cost them was that every conceivably tradeable asset besides Vaz (and Verdugo and Bogaerts) became distressed in the weeks before the deadline, not any misplaced faith the team could make a run.

Eovaldi - hurt, lost velocity
JDM - hurt, then hit .167/.216/.267 from 6/27 to the deadline
Duran - hit .129/.169/.194 with a 46.3 K% from 7/7 to the deadline
Kiké - hurt
Cordero - hit .119/.213/.262 with a 51 K% from 7/8 to the deadline
Arroyo - hurt until 7/30, needed to cover 2B after Story injury
Hill - hurt
Wacha - hurt
Strahm - hurt
Dalbec - cratered after promising end to ‘21
Downs - hit .154/.171/.256 with a 51 K% before demoted on 7/29

Once all that happened, it made sense for Bloom to do what he did. Of course we don’t know the offers, but it would have been pointless to trade Eovaldi or JDM for more 35-40 FV prospects that need 40-man protection soon, because we’re already facing that roster crunch this winter. It’s also been reported that the Sox (and Guardians) were in pretty heavily on Sean Murphy, so the incentive to trade Vázquez was higher.

I think a QO for JDM and a creative deal to keep Eovaldi around, with money and years depending on how well his fastball comes back this year, makes sense for everyone.

Sale -- hurt
Story -- hurt
Barnes -- hurt
Whitlock -- hurt
Devers -- hurt, only played 13 games in July
Paxton -- still recovering

It's unreal.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Thinking this team was capable of making a run may have been a major misjudgment.

This is where I'm at, but I know some people (apparently including Bloom) don't give up until mathematically eliminated, but, to me, there was a two-part question at the deadline that it feels like they tried to answer every possible way:

Can this team contend if healthy, and is it realistic to think they can outlast the iron of the league?

The question is limited to what Bloom knew as of the trade deadline - which was a week ago on Aug 2.

It depends when he thought Devers, Wacha, Story, Strahm, Hernandez, (Paxton) etc. were due back and how effective the Sox realistically expected them to be when they arrived.

I have to think there were a few coin-flip answers in there, because they didn't commit to buying or to selling. The reporting suggests they would have bought (Murphy) at the right price, and would have sold (JD) if blown away by the offer.

So clearly they thought the team might have been able to contend.

But that's meaningless outside of the context of the trade deadline. Let's say they pegged it as a 33% chance to make the playoffs. You've got to compare that to the (unknown) offers for their players. If they were sellers, they'd effectively trade the 33% chance for 0% and something. What if that something were just marginal prospects? I don't think that's a wise choice. If they were buyers, they might mortgage the farm for rentals to raise their chance to 43%. . .and that might not be wise either.

The fact that by October this may actually end up being one of the 66 times out of 100 they never get everyone back and working well does not mean the team didn't have some kind of chance to contend on August 2, and that rolling the dice was better than folding and collecting what you could in trade.

(Just to be clear, I'm pulling that 33% number out of my ass. It's just to illustrate the point that there's some point where you continue to roll the dice. If it was pegged internally as a 5% chance and they got great offers for JD which they turned down then that's stupidity. But there's no indication we're in that box.)

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Sale -- hurt
Story -- hurt
Barnes -- hurt
Whitlock -- hurt
Devers -- hurt, only played 13 games in July
Paxton -- still recovering

It's unreal.

Barnes is back (unless I missed something) but he did miss a long stretch, not that he was missed by the fans

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

How is it Bloom's fault if other teams don't want what he was offering? Dropping the price so you're giving away talent for nothing doesn't accomplish anything. And what does getting under the tax matter? A couple slots higher in a compensation pick? The stiff penalties for going a bit over are gone in the current agreement.

I'd rather watch a .500 team play out the string in a season where they miss the playoffs than one that is stripped bare and loses 95 games. It seems like a lot of people would rather they come in last place and stop watching entirely if the team isn't guaranteed to get into the postseason. There's value to putting a watchable* product on the field in the present rather than scrapping it for a slightly increased chance of winning later.

* The KC series did not count as watchable

I think this supports my argument that Henry doesn’t support a “full rebuild@ if it means tanking or being bottom dwellers for a few seasons like Houston. There’s always a chance that the team would lose viewership and while Houston’s has grown it was because every move they made during rebuilding went great and their seasonal retooling has been amazing despite losing fan favorites Springer and Correa and trading away depth for trade improvements.
They had to pick 2-3 positional players long term to hold a core together and allow the others to leave. Their best starter during their WS run isn’t even pitching anymore

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Houston arguably had to cheat to win their one world title, which may have "proved" to some owners that their system doesn't work. Given that the Rays, Padres, Orioles, Pirates, Reds, and one or two other teams that have largely followed the same model due to being locked into middling payrolls/being small market teams, which obviously Boston isn't, have failed to win in the last 40 years, maybe that's true.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Houston arguably had to cheat to win their one world title, which may have "proved" to some owners that their system doesn't work. Given that the Rays, Padres, Orioles, Pirates, Reds, and one or two other teams that have largely followed the same model due to being locked into middling payrolls/being small market teams, which obviously Boston isn't.

So what system has "proven" to work over the last 20 years if WS are the proof? I can think of 2, and they aren't really systems. The Red Sox who rotate GMs and the Giants who had a good stretch.

 

[chrisfont9]

Barnes is back (unless I missed something) but he did miss a long stretch, not that he was missed by the fans

Just now, yes, but whatever he brings has to be an improvement over (checks notes) Darwinzon.

 

[Ale Xander]

So what system has "proven" to work over the last 20 years if WS are the proof? I can think of 2, and they aren't really systems. The Red Sox who rotate GMs and the Giants who had a good stretch.

Giants had a system of getting in, and then riding MadBum

 

[8slim]

So what system has "proven" to work over the last 20 years if WS are the proof? I can think of 2, and they aren't really systems. The Red Sox who rotate GMs and the Giants who had a good stretch.

I think that proves that there are multiple paths to success in baseball. And that it’s better to be nimble than to be slavishly devoted to one particular system.

I think that’s why the Sox have had the kind of success that they have over the past 20+ years. They’ve pivoted.

We’ll see if Bloom has that ability.

 

[jon abbey]

HOU has been to five consecutive ALCSs, losing twice there, twice in the WS, and winning once. That’s the closest you can get to a dynasty these days, putting yourself in the top handful of teams every year and hoping to be the one to survive the postseason gauntlet.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

HOU has been to five consecutive ALCSs, losing twice there, twice in the WS, and winning once. That’s the closest you can get to a dynasty these days, putting yourself in the top handful of teams every year and hoping to be the one to survive the postseason gauntlet.

Just want to reemphasize that they did this while not resigning aces (lost to MFY’s… Jon Abbey, what’s your take on this so far?) allowing beloved homegrown players to leave.
But they had to go deeeeep down for a while to get here. But really, local fan base didn’t care too much and I do t see that happening with Boston

 

[scottyno]

Giants had a system of getting in, and then riding MadBum

They missed the playoffs most years he was on the team, including all 4 years before after or between those series wins. Not such a great system if that's your system.

 

[jon abbey]

Just want to reemphasize that they did this while not resigning aces (lost to MFY’s… Jon Abbey, what’s your take on this so far?) allowing beloved homegrown players to leave.
But they had to go deeeeep down for a while to get here. But really, local fan base didn’t care too much and I do t see that happening with Boston

On the Cole signing? I wouldn't mind him being a bit more consistent, but it's pretty hard to complain. I tend to think of giant signings in MLB as failures of the minor league system to develop the players that should be filling that role. NY needed an ace, they are very rarely available, and he has been maybe 95 percent what they could have expected/hoped for.

 

[cantor44]

The problem with your critique is it has no basis in reality. There is not a single GM with understanding of prospect development that would have signed/traded for another first baseman or a platoon partner for Dalbec after his torrid August and September. In fact given how prospects develop his torrid August and September were not out of the norm. As for the playoffs a young player can struggle in the playoffs. If Bloom is going to allow a handful of playoff games to dictate his evaluation of a player then the Sox are in bad shape. As for the rotation I hope the depth that has been shown this year is the kind of depth they have every year. In fact most fans would be thrilled if there team demonstrated the depth that the Sox have had for their rotation. Sale goes down and Wacha is inserted and does fairly well. Both Houck and Whitlock did well when inserted in the rotation. Crawford and Winchowski both did decently. The big problem in July had more to do with defense and offense. As for JBJ it was a reasonably swing to take. Even though he was a below average hitter his defense meant he was a positive contributor through most of his major league career. One bad season does not mean a player is cooked. In fact Bloom will probably take more of those swings, because that is what good teams do. Further he had Jared Duran in triple A as further depth. In general depth is retreads or four A players. The fact he was able to get Refsnyder is another feather in his camp. As for the bullpen what would you like him to do? Many teams spend vast sums of money on the bullpen and end up with a shit bullpen. There is no right way to build a bullpen, but traded for bullpen pitchers and signing a bunch of them to big money deals doesn't seem a good way to build a bullpen. The bigger problem with the bullpen has been Cora's usage of it through the season. Some of Bloom's moves worked and some didn't. The thought process behind those moves though seem solid unless you have a crystal ball. Bloom is not beyond criticism. I would have like Gausman brought in and I am curious what he is going to do with the rotation next year, but your "critiques" are just baseless.

But they did sign a platoon partner for Dalbec: Travis Shaw. He couldn't hit a lick, so they cut him. They just didn't sign a good platoon partner.

 

[Ganthem]

But they did sign a platoon partner for Dalbec: Travis Shaw. He couldn't hit a lick, so they cut him. They just didn't sign a good platoon partner.

Unless I missed something Shaw was a backup first baseman. Dalbec wasn't going to sit against a particular type of pitcher.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Unless I missed something Shaw was a backup first baseman. Dalbec wasn't going to sit against a particular type of pitcher.

Well, not a platoon partner exactly - but a backup who might be able to platoon to Dalbec's weaknesses while backing up.

Dalbec had a lefty split in 2021, and started slow that year. Shaw was going to be 33, and has pretty much always had a righty split. The Sox used him exclusively against righties in 2021. (.843 OPS - SSS)

Shaw hadn't very good in the past couple of years, but the Sox apparently thought he had some signs of life in him. If those weren't illusory, he could have been used to spell a slow Dalbec early on v. RHP. Dalbec would have a day off now and then to work on things.

And that's pretty much what happened.

Dalbec started slow. He clonked his only homer that month in the third game on April 10, but faded to a .448 OPS by the end of April.

Shaw started 3 games at 1B in April (11th, 18th, 21st), all against RHP. (7 games overall including as a PH.) All of his 19 ABs were against RHP. He was just totally cooked.