Let's talk Bats. Assume to compete, we need 3 or 4 core hitters, plus a greater number of more fungible complementary pieces.
Per Cots, it looks like the Sox are estimated to be $3M under the CBT threshold (were it to be reinstated as is.)
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900
2022: In the 1B/DH department, we currently have Dalbec/JD. Casas is due to be called up at some point this year. Our other mainstays are Devers at 3B, Xander at SS.
2023: The plan is likely be for 1B/DH to be Casas/Dalbec in 2023. In 2023, Devers is at 3B for his final year of arb. (Boegarts may opt out at the end of 2022.)
2024(5): We start to see ML bats coming up: Yorke at 2B, Meyer at SS, Jordan at 3B/1B, Binelas at 3B. Dalbec would be in his first year of arb in 2024, Devers is gone or extended, Xander the same.)
My thoughts:
* We are close to the old CBT.
* JBJ is already kind of a mill-stone re: a 2022 in-season Devers/Xander extension and/or the CBT, and the only one they're likely to take on.
*At the end of 2022, we will have to go to the trade/FA well to shore up the club for C, SP, maybe SS.
(FAs at season's end are Vazquez and Plawecki, Hill and Eovaldi, JD and E.Hernandez. Option FA: Xander.)
* 2024 window IF hitting may be a strength to trade from. But we don't actually get club utility until 2024/5. So trading current starting pieces is a bit of an illusion, since it creates a gap that will have to be filled at a cost. IMO,
if they believe Dalbec has figured out how to hit, he should be pretty much untouchable, except for a young, cost-controlled, ML ready SP. If JD, Dalbec, and Casas are hitting, JD is the one to trade.
* This smells like last year to me: a quasi-punt with a semi-closing window. If they tank, look for JD, E.Hernandez, and our short term starters to be traded.
In any event, I don't see how acquiring Hosmer (or Schwarber) does anything but create a log-jam, wasting value. Doubly so if there's a reasonable JD extension in the works.