Red Sox in season discussion

[Daniel_Son]

Man, the outfield doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence. I mentioned in the other thread I'd like them to go after Manaea or another pitcher from Oakland, but looking at this, getting a better bat in the outfield needs to be Bloom's top priority. I'd also like to see some depth at 3rd and SS.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Man, the outfield doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence. I mentioned in the other thread I'd like them to go after Manaea or another pitcher from Oakland, but looking at this, getting a better bat in the outfield needs to be Bloom's top priority. I'd also like to see some depth at 3rd and SS.

Yeah, JBJ’s best role on this team is as a defensive oriented 4th OF. Any offense first OF would be helpful. Schwarber… Suzuki is the best overall option I think.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I’ve said it before, but JBJ is an absolutely terrible fit as a 4th OF. He’d never play in that role, since Verdugo is a LH hitter himself. He’s been abysmal in his career when coming off the bench (I think he may actually be the worst PH of all time); and who exactly would he even PH for? I think they plan on starting him and are expecting a return to previous form when he’s in a familiar and comfortable situation.

I guess if they sign a defensively challenged player like Schwarber he could simply be a defensive replacement but seems like a really inefficient use of a roster spot.

 

[cantor44]

I’ve said it before, but JBJ is an absolutely terrible fit as a 4th OF. He’d never play in that role, since Verdugo is a LH hitter himself. He’s been abysmal in his career when coming off the bench (I think he may actually be the worst PH of all time); and who exactly would he even PH for? I think they plan on starting him and are expecting a return to previous form when he’s in a familiar and comfortable situation.

I guess if they sign a defensively challenged player like Schwarber he could simply be a defensive replacement but seems like a really inefficient use of a roster spot.

I can see the possibility of JBJ and Arroyo being in a platoon, with JBJ starting against RHP ... Kiké would then swing between center and second. JBJ could then also be a late inning defensive replacement games he didn't start. This still begs for another outfielder added to the mix. I love Schwarber, but would prefer someone who could also field ....

 

[scottyno]

I’ve said it before, but JBJ is an absolutely terrible fit as a 4th OF. He’d never play in that role, since Verdugo is a LH hitter himself. He’s been abysmal in his career when coming off the bench (I think he may actually be the worst PH of all time); and who exactly would he even PH for? I think they plan on starting him and are expecting a return to previous form when he’s in a familiar and comfortable situation.

I guess if they sign a defensively challenged player like Schwarber he could simply be a defensive replacement but seems like a really inefficient use of a roster spot.

Right now they have 1 guy that we can write in in pen as a starting outfielder most nights in 2022 (Verdugo), so I'm not sure how you can decide already that he's a bad 4th OF when we don't even know who 2/3rds of the outfield will be.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Hernandez seems likely to be in the OF, no? Guess he could play 2b but OF seems most likely. But JBJ being a bad fit as backup, IMO, is based on him historically needing a defined role to succeed - he’s been awful in a part time role. I’m also not sure who on this current team he’d ever PH for.

If the starting OF is Schwarber, Hernandez, and Verdugo, for example, I think the team would be much better off with a 4th OF who can hit lefties. If those three were the starters, when would Jackie play? Defensive replacement for Schwarber or whomever isn’t

Have people read Homegrown? The org loves Jackie. I really think he’s gonna start and bounce back in a familiar situation.

Think we can agree to disagree on this one. Wish this lockout could end so we could disagree about something new, at least…

 

[Daniel_Son]

Right now they have 1 guy that we can write in in pen as a starting outfielder most nights in 2022 (Verdugo), so I'm not sure how you can decide already that he's a bad 4th OF when we don't even know who 2/3rds of the outfield will be.

I don't think Kiké is going to be spending that much time at 2B in 2022. By several metrics he was one of the best CF in the game last year. I imagine the chart shakes out to something like:

RF
??
Verdugo
JBJ

CF
Kiké
JBJ

LF
Verdugo
??
Martinez

So we need someone who can cover RF primarily. Suzuki makes a lot of sense. Schwarber makes sense if they stick him in left and put Verdugo in RF most games. Any other candidates? Bryant maybe?

 

[scottyno]

I don't think Kiké is going to be spending that much time at 2B in 2022. By several metrics he was one of the best CF in the game last year. I imagine the chart shakes out to something like:

Sure, but he was also a really good 2b for his last 2 years with the Dodgers, and as we saw last year the Sox depth at 2b is pretty terrible right now if you don't include Kike. Arroyo has yet to play over 57 games in an MLB season, counting on him to play the majority of a season as a good player seems like a stretch right now.

 

[nvalvo]

A long-shot weird OF candidate that might make some conceivable sense is... Justin Upton.

He's owed a pile of money for a single season, has posted negative WAR for three years running, so I will understand if there's some skepticism. Here's the idea:

• The Angels want Upton gone to make room for a Trout, Marsh, Adell, Ohtani OF, but they would like to avoid another full-on DFA like they just did with Pujols last season.
• Upton will earn $28m in 2022, but the AAV of his back-loaded deal is closer to $21m.
• Upton can still hit lefties well: .838 OPS in 2021, .796 OPS in 2020. He's also only 34, although he's a 15 year veteran with almost 7600 PA, soooo... there's some mileage.
• Boston's OF right now is Kiké Hernandez and a bunch of LHH (Verdugo, Bradley, Duran).
• But, the Angels have a pretty terrible farm system.

You could construct a deal where Boston sends basically nothing to Anaheim — Durbin Feltman, say, and maybe another comparable "prospect" — in exchange for Upton and a more credible young prospect (teenaged Dominican middle infielder Denzer Guzman would be my pick) and like $23m. That trade is basically fair, per the trade sim.

And here's the thing: it actually reduces Boston's CBT by however much Anaheim's financial contribution exceeds Upton's AAV, so we get a platoon corner outfielder for like $5m actual dollars but a negative-$2m CBT hit. Maybe Upton has a bit of a resurgence and makes the club out of spring training as a quasi-platoon partner for Bradley, or maybe he doesn't.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

A long-shot weird OF candidate that might make some conceivable sense is... Justin Upton.

He's owed a pile of money for a single season, has posted negative WAR for three years running, so I will understand if there's some skepticism. Here's the idea:

• The Angels want Upton gone to make room for a Trout, Marsh, Adell, Ohtani OF, but they would like to avoid another full-on DFA like they just did with Pujols last season.
• Upton will earn $28m in 2022, but the AAV of his back-loaded deal is closer to $21m.
• Upton can still hit lefties well: .838 OPS in 2021, .796 OPS in 2020. He's also only 34, although he's a 15 year veteran with almost 7600 PA, soooo... there's some mileage.
• Boston's OF right now is Kiké Hernandez and a bunch of LHH (Verdugo, Bradley, Duran).
• But, the Angels have a pretty terrible farm system.

You could construct a deal where Boston sends basically nothing to Anaheim — Durbin Feltman, say, and maybe another comparable "prospect" — in exchange for Upton and a more credible young prospect (teenaged Dominican middle infielder Denzer Guzman would be my pick) and like $23m. That trade is basically fair, per the trade sim.

And here's the thing: it actually reduces Boston's CBT by however much Anaheim's financial contribution exceeds Upton's AAV, so we get a platoon corner outfielder for like $5m actual dollars but a negative-$2m CBT hit. Maybe Upton has a bit of a resurgence and makes the club out of spring training as a quasi-platoon partner for Bradley, or maybe he doesn't.

The JBJ deal made sense only insofar as it wasn’t really a deal FOR JBJ, but more to acquire prospects and prepare for other moves.
Your proposal here I can’t even begin to understand. But it took me a while to get “the JBJ deal” so. ‍

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Maybe Upton has a bit of a resurgence and makes the club out of spring training as a quasi-platoon partner for Bradley, or maybe he doesn't.

How many players have a bit of a resurgence at the age of 34 after posting three consecutive negative WAR years?

 

[Rovin Romine]

A long-shot weird OF candidate that might make some conceivable sense is... Justin Upton.

This isn't your first trade proposal that has the Sox picking up expensive garbage and a prospect or two. They did it for JBJ, but how many of those types "maybe they can be useful" types can one reasonably afford on the roster? Sooner or later, you're going to come up with a big fat 0 or two in the lineup, then your season is gone.

 

[sean1562]

These are super conservative projections no? Houck was worth 2.2 fWAR last season in 69 innings. Hernandez 3.9 fWAR, Xander 5.2, Devers 4.7, JDM 2.9, Verdugo 2.0. Duran at 0.6 fWAR makes sense if he is a total bust but that seems to be a pretty pessimistic outlook for him in LF.

 

[nvalvo]

This isn't your first trade proposal that has the Sox picking up expensive garbage and a prospect or two. They did it for JBJ, but how many of those types "maybe they can be useful" types can one reasonably afford on the roster? Sooner or later, you're going to come up with a big fat 0 or two in the lineup, then your season is gone.

You're right. I've become fascinated with these deals once I realized that there's a kind of "bug" in the (former) CBA — I imagine it was deliberate — that incentivizes salary dump trades. Upton is now worth more to another team than to the Angels, because any money sent with him is amortized over only the *remaining* portion of the contract for the purpose of calculating the CBT hit of the assumed contract — the seasons the Angels already paid for aren't included in the denominator — while his AAV, a straight average, does take his earlier cheaper years into account.

When we were talking about a Wil Myers trade, there was a particularly vivid effect. His deal had a $15m signing bonus, and then went 2 2 3 20 20 20, with a 20 club option for 23, for a 6/$83 overall and a 13.83 AAV. But if the Padres had included, say, $24m with him, that wouldn't go back and make the AAV for Boston 6/$59=9.83. It would have instead subtracted 24/3 from his AAV over the remaining three years, yielding an AAV of only $5.83. So a relatively small transfer of money becomes a much larger transfer of AAV, and of course, the Padres (not close to any threshold at that point) cared much more about real money than AAV, while Boston's priorities were different.

But a key point here is that a deal like this one doesn't actually require Upton to make the team. We're really just paying $6m in dollars for a prospect and $2m of CBT relief for one season, which is a great deal even if Upton never wears a home uniform at Fenway. This is a player who was once pretty good. If he looks like he could be useful against LHP in camp, he's the fifth outfielder/JBJ's platoon partner/Duran insurance/whatever. If not, he's gone.

I think that's interesting, and I think it's something that a team who has decided to spend right at that margin, even though they have the financial muscle to spend more, (i.e. Boston) should be attentive to. The deals for JBJ and Adam Ottavino suggest they are, but those deals were a bit different because they see our CBT number go up — in my proposed Upton deal, our number goes down. It only makes sense at all if we are close to one of the CBT thresholds in 2022 — the "$20m over" or especially the "$40m over" tiers. I won't go into all the analysis because the CBT is changing, but there are scenarios where getting our number down a couple $mil could be worth a lot in future draft capital.

(But to be clear, I'd rather just sign Seiya Suzuki, too.)

 

[chrisfont9]

This isn't your first trade proposal that has the Sox picking up expensive garbage and a prospect or two. They did it for JBJ, but how many of those types "maybe they can be useful" types can one reasonably afford on the roster? Sooner or later, you're going to come up with a big fat 0 or two in the lineup, then your season is gone.

I like the idea, if only because the Sox have a LT window where they can probably interrupt any consecutive overages while the roster is still in flux, so they may as well trade that cap room for as many prospects as they can. Also proven hitters going to Fenway for low-pressure PAs and backup defense is an OK way to squeeze some value out of a veteran bat.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I feel like there’s a disconnect in the value of prospects. If the two guys the Sox got from the Brewers are truly worth JBJ’s salary (assuming they team sees no value in Bradley which I don’t really buy at all) - than why were we told that the Sox prospects in that range that they were presumably willing to deal at the deadline weren’t valuable enough to get more impactful players? Binelas slots in below guys like Wong, Murphy, and Winckowski, for example. How valuable are these guys? If so, aren’t the Sox at a point to be converting these guys into value that helps the big league club now? They seem to be a potential contender and have beefed up the system. Acquiring more prospects, many of whom they may have trouble finding minor league starting roles for, at the expense of the big league roster seems like a mistake to me.

 

[Rovin Romine]

But a key point here is that a deal like this one doesn't actually require Upton to make the team. We're really just paying $6m in dollars for a prospect and $2m of CBT relief for one season, which is a great deal even if Upton never wears a home uniform at Fenway.

I don't understand this from the Angels prespective. They get a shit Boston player, and lateral a decent prospect to Boston worth 6(?) million so they can save 6 million on Upton? Why?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

You can't keep buying and stashing a ton of prospects in the minors. At some point the prospects have to either mature and become major leaguers or get traded for major leaguers; at which point you have the same problem: a bottleneck in your system, beginning at the major league level. It's okay to do this a few times, especially when your system is barren; but too much and prospects turn to suspects. Prospects need to move up the ladder in order to fulfill their potential.

Collecting prospects isn't like collecting baseball cards.

 

[Daniel_Son]

Bill James released his 2022 projections for the Red Sox. Couple of thoughts:

• Christian Arroyo playing only half a season is... not ideal, but probably a pretty safe bet. I'm hoping his luck turns around, he's been impressive in his limited time on the field.
• Pretty crappy numbers from JBJ. I think he's going to have a better campaign than that - he was abysmal last year, but I'd imagine he lands somewhere between his 2020 and 2018 numbers.
• Big power from Bobby. I think he builds on his 2nd half of last year and ends up with better average/OBP numbers.
• Downs plays almost a full season? Not sure where that's coming from, he was pretty bad in AAA and 72 at-bats in the AFL isn't enough to convince me he's ready.
• Duran's got the worst numbers on the team. I really really hope he plays better than that. Maybe it's time to sell high on him?
• Great numbers from JD - if he matches those, I'd be ecstatic.

Christian Arroyo: .252 batting average, .312 on-base percentage, .412 slugging percentage, .724 OPS, 10 homers, 21 doubles, 1 triple, 45 RBIs, 41 runs, 21 walks, 83 strikeouts, two stolen bases, 40 runs created, 4.2 runs created per 27 outs, 91 games, 330 at-bats.

Xander Bogaerts: .285 batting average, .364 on-base percentage, .480 slugging percentage, .844 OPS, 23 homers, 41 doubles, 2 triples, 92 RBIs, 98 runs, 67 walks, 123 strikeouts, 6 stolen bases, 102 runs created, 6.3 runs created per 27 outs, 154 games, 585 at-bats.

Jackie Bradley Jr.: .210 batting average, .294 on-base percentage, .348 slugging percentage, .642 OPS, 7 homers, 13 doubles, 2 triples, 29 RBIs, 36 runs, 27 walks, 88 strikeouts, 5 stolen bases, 27 runs created, 3.2 runs created per 27 outs, 103 games, 276 at-bats.

Bobby Dalbec: .227 batting average, .308 on-base percentage, .459 slugging percentage, .767 OPS, 27 homers, 21 doubles, 3 triples, 84 RBIs, 60 runs, 44 walks, 180 strikeouts, 2 stolen bases, 63 runs created, 4.6 runs created per 27 outs, 137 games, 466 at-bats.

Rafael Devers: .276 batting average, .344 on-base percentage, .521 slugging percentage, .865 OPS, 36 homers, 42 doubles, 2 triples, 116 RBIs, 106 runs, 59 walks, 151 strikeouts, 5 stolen bases, 110 runs created, 6.2 runs created per 27 outs, 158 games, 630 at-bats.

Jeter Downs: .268 batting average, .341 on-base percentage, .427 slugging percentage, .768 OPS, 17 homers, 20 doubles, 1 triple, 68 RBIs, 72 runs, 44 walks, 100 strikeouts, 7 stolen bases, 66 runs created, 5.0 runs created per 27 outs, 135 games, 459 at-bats.

Jarren Duran: .210 batting average, .256 on-base percentage, .305 slugging percentage, .561 OPS, 7 homers, 18 doubles, 5 triples, 40 RBIs, 70 runs, 29 walks, 167 strikeouts, 15 stolen bases, 41 runs created, 2.6 runs created per 27 outs, 143 games, 515 at-bats.

Kiké Hernández: .253 batting average, .338 on-base percentage, .444 slugging percentage, .782 OPS, 17 homers, 28 doubles, 2 triples, 58 RBIs, 68 runs, 50 walks, 99 strikeouts, 1 stolen base, 64 runs created, 5.1 runs created per 27 outs, 135 games, 435 at-bats.

J.D. Martinez: .280 batting average, .353 on-base percentage, .511 slugging percentage, .864 OPS, 24 homers, 32 doubles, 2 triples, 82 RBIs, 75 runs, 50 walks, 127 strikeouts, 1 stolen base, 84 runs created, 6.5 runs created per 27 outs, 133 games, 468 at-bats.

Kevin Plawecki: .257 batting average, .330 on-base percentage, .383 slugging percentage, .713 OPS, 4 homers, 9 doubles, 0 triples, 21 RBIs, 17 runs, 14 walks, 31 strikeouts, 0 stolen bases, 20 runs created, 4.2 runs created per 27 outs, 68 games, 167 at-bats.

Christian Vázquez: .260 batting average, .314 on-base percentage, .383 slugging percentage, .696 OPS, 10 homers, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 53 RBIs, 57 runs, 34 walks, 96 strikeouts, 7 stolen bases, 56 runs created, 4.1 runs created per 27 outs, 135 games, 473 at-bats.

Alex Verdugo: .284 batting average, .349 on-base percentage, .432 slugging percentage, .781 OPS, 14 homers, 35 doubles, 2 triples, 64 RBIs, 78 runs, 51 walks, 98 strikeouts, 6 stolen bases, 82 runs created, 5.4 runs created per 27 outs, 148 games, 549 at-bats.

 

[YTF]

Duran playing 8 more games and getting 80 more ABs than Kike' with those projected numbers? No thank you.

Edit...I'm realizing that this has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. ATM the roster is incomplete. It's VERY likely that there is another OF added who should impact the team more that Duran and I'm guessing another utility infielder takes the place of Downs. I have to admit that while I've no earthly idea where those Down's numbers come from, I'll take them from whoever fills that slot.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Bill James released his 2022 projections for the Red Sox. Couple of thoughts:

• Christian Arroyo playing only half a season is... not ideal, but probably a pretty safe bet. I'm hoping his luck turns around, he's been impressive in his limited time on the field.
• Pretty crappy numbers from JBJ. I think he's going to have a better campaign than that - he was abysmal last year, but I'd imagine he lands somewhere between his 2020 and 2018 numbers.
• Big power from Bobby. I think he builds on his 2nd half of last year and ends up with better average/OBP numbers.
• Downs plays almost a full season? Not sure where that's coming from, he was pretty bad in AAA and 72 at-bats in the AFL isn't enough to convince me he's ready.
• Duran's got the worst numbers on the team. I really really hope he plays better than that. Maybe it's time to sell high on him?
• Great numbers from JD - if he matches those, I'd be ecstatic.

Christian Arroyo: .252 batting average, .312 on-base percentage, .412 slugging percentage, .724 OPS, 10 homers, 21 doubles, 1 triple, 45 RBIs, 41 runs, 21 walks, 83 strikeouts, two stolen bases, 40 runs created, 4.2 runs created per 27 outs, 91 games, 330 at-bats.

Xander Bogaerts: .285 batting average, .364 on-base percentage, .480 slugging percentage, .844 OPS, 23 homers, 41 doubles, 2 triples, 92 RBIs, 98 runs, 67 walks, 123 strikeouts, 6 stolen bases, 102 runs created, 6.3 runs created per 27 outs, 154 games, 585 at-bats.

Jackie Bradley Jr.: .210 batting average, .294 on-base percentage, .348 slugging percentage, .642 OPS, 7 homers, 13 doubles, 2 triples, 29 RBIs, 36 runs, 27 walks, 88 strikeouts, 5 stolen bases, 27 runs created, 3.2 runs created per 27 outs, 103 games, 276 at-bats.

Bobby Dalbec: .227 batting average, .308 on-base percentage, .459 slugging percentage, .767 OPS, 27 homers, 21 doubles, 3 triples, 84 RBIs, 60 runs, 44 walks, 180 strikeouts, 2 stolen bases, 63 runs created, 4.6 runs created per 27 outs, 137 games, 466 at-bats.

Rafael Devers: .276 batting average, .344 on-base percentage, .521 slugging percentage, .865 OPS, 36 homers, 42 doubles, 2 triples, 116 RBIs, 106 runs, 59 walks, 151 strikeouts, 5 stolen bases, 110 runs created, 6.2 runs created per 27 outs, 158 games, 630 at-bats.

Jeter Downs: .268 batting average, .341 on-base percentage, .427 slugging percentage, .768 OPS, 17 homers, 20 doubles, 1 triple, 68 RBIs, 72 runs, 44 walks, 100 strikeouts, 7 stolen bases, 66 runs created, 5.0 runs created per 27 outs, 135 games, 459 at-bats.

Jarren Duran: .210 batting average, .256 on-base percentage, .305 slugging percentage, .561 OPS, 7 homers, 18 doubles, 5 triples, 40 RBIs, 70 runs, 29 walks, 167 strikeouts, 15 stolen bases, 41 runs created, 2.6 runs created per 27 outs, 143 games, 515 at-bats.

Kiké Hernández: .253 batting average, .338 on-base percentage, .444 slugging percentage, .782 OPS, 17 homers, 28 doubles, 2 triples, 58 RBIs, 68 runs, 50 walks, 99 strikeouts, 1 stolen base, 64 runs created, 5.1 runs created per 27 outs, 135 games, 435 at-bats.

J.D. Martinez: .280 batting average, .353 on-base percentage, .511 slugging percentage, .864 OPS, 24 homers, 32 doubles, 2 triples, 82 RBIs, 75 runs, 50 walks, 127 strikeouts, 1 stolen base, 84 runs created, 6.5 runs created per 27 outs, 133 games, 468 at-bats.

Kevin Plawecki: .257 batting average, .330 on-base percentage, .383 slugging percentage, .713 OPS, 4 homers, 9 doubles, 0 triples, 21 RBIs, 17 runs, 14 walks, 31 strikeouts, 0 stolen bases, 20 runs created, 4.2 runs created per 27 outs, 68 games, 167 at-bats.

Christian Vázquez: .260 batting average, .314 on-base percentage, .383 slugging percentage, .696 OPS, 10 homers, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 53 RBIs, 57 runs, 34 walks, 96 strikeouts, 7 stolen bases, 56 runs created, 4.1 runs created per 27 outs, 135 games, 473 at-bats.

Alex Verdugo: .284 batting average, .349 on-base percentage, .432 slugging percentage, .781 OPS, 14 homers, 35 doubles, 2 triples, 64 RBIs, 78 runs, 51 walks, 98 strikeouts, 6 stolen bases, 82 runs created, 5.4 runs created per 27 outs, 148 games, 549 at-bats.

Why is he so optimistic re: Jeter Downs? And where is he playing? That might win ROY.

 

[allmanbro]

You're right. I've become fascinated with these deals once I realized that there's a kind of "bug" in the (former) CBA — I imagine it was deliberate — that incentivizes salary dump trades. Upton is now worth more to another team than to the Angels, because any money sent with him is amortized over only the *remaining* portion of the contract for the purpose of calculating the CBT hit of the assumed contract — the seasons the Angels already paid for aren't included in the denominator — while his AAV, a straight average, does take his earlier cheaper years into account.

When we were talking about a Wil Myers trade, there was a particularly vivid effect. His deal had a $15m signing bonus, and then went 2 2 3 20 20 20, with a 20 club option for 23, for a 6/$83 overall and a 13.83 AAV. But if the Padres had included, say, $24m with him, that wouldn't go back and make the AAV for Boston 6/$59=9.83. It would have instead subtracted 24/3 from his AAV over the remaining three years, yielding an AAV of only $5.83. So a relatively small transfer of money becomes a much larger transfer of AAV, and of course, the Padres (not close to any threshold at that point) cared much more about real money than AAV, while Boston's priorities were different.

But a key point here is that a deal like this one doesn't actually require Upton to make the team. We're really just paying $6m in dollars for a prospect and $2m of CBT relief for one season, which is a great deal even if Upton never wears a home uniform at Fenway. This is a player who was once pretty good. If he looks like he could be useful against LHP in camp, he's the fifth outfielder/JBJ's platoon partner/Duran insurance/whatever. If not, he's gone.

I think that's interesting, and I think it's something that a team who has decided to spend right at that margin, even though they have the financial muscle to spend more, (i.e. Boston) should be attentive to. The deals for JBJ and Adam Ottavino suggest they are, but those deals were a bit different because they see our CBT number go up — in my proposed Upton deal, our number goes down. It only makes sense at all if we are close to one of the CBT thresholds in 2022 — the "$20m over" or especially the "$40m over" tiers. I won't go into all the analysis because the CBT is changing, but there are scenarios where getting our number down a couple $mil could be worth a lot in future draft capital.

(But to be clear, I'd rather just sign Seiya Suzuki, too.)

Since I've also floated a couple of these "take on a bad contract" trades, I'll chime in too. There are a couple reasons they are interesting to kick around, even for cases where it would increase AAV. The main thing is that I think the one single player that they need most right now, and over the next few years, is a top-line SP. I don't see the team as having (or being willing to part with) the prospects to acquire a player like that, nor do they same interested in the long term contract it would take in FA. Since they just got back under the cap, a short term AAV hit is not a big problem for this team, so it seems to me that taking on a bad contract is maybe the only way they get a player that good - sort of like how the Dodgers would never have gotten a player as good as Mookie if they hadn't also taken on the Price contract.

The other reason is really just about where I sit as a random guy on an internet board. It's just, to me, an interesting kind of deal to speculate on, which has nothing to do with what the Sox as a team should do. Speculating on FA is fine, but these trades have more moving parts to play with. And compared to prospect-heavy deals, it's a lot easier to spot a player with a bad contract on a team that has some interesting pieces than it is to know how all the teams involved value packages of 3-4 prospects.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

View: https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479428600604819459

Based on Koji Uehara’s interview with Seiya Suzuki, that just dropped, it sounds more and more like the Boston Red Sox are the front runners for Suzuki. Koji: “You’re going to Boston, right?” Seiya: “Uh…I can’t quite disclose that yet.”

 

[YTF]

Not really sure how that makes it sound like the Sox are the front runners.

 

[Niastri]

Sounds more like "no comment" translated awkwardly from Japanese to English.

 

[BringBackMo]

Looking at that Twitter feed, there is absolutely nothing awkward whatsoever about the Japanese or the English. The person behind the account is clearly exceedingly articulate in both languages and apparently quite comfortable with interpreting between them. In any case, the account does acknowledge that it may have been a simple no comment.

View: https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479429839929380865?s=21

 

[chrisfont9]

You can't keep buying and stashing a ton of prospects in the minors. At some point the prospects have to either mature and become major leaguers or get traded for major leaguers; at which point you have the same problem: a bottleneck in your system, beginning at the major league level. It's okay to do this a few times, especially when your system is barren; but too much and prospects turn to suspects. Prospects need to move up the ladder in order to fulfill their potential.

Collecting prospects isn't like collecting baseball cards.

You can get creative and trade mature upper minors prospects for younger guys, teenagers from the international pool, etc. No shortage of room for those guys.

 

[nvalvo]

It does make it sound like Suzuki has a pretty good idea where he's going, though.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

Looking at that Twitter feed, there is absolutely nothing awkward whatsoever about the Japanese or the English. The person behind the account is clearly exceedingly articulate in both languages and apparently quite comfortable with interpreting between them. In any case, the account does acknowledge that it may have been a simple no comment.

View: https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479429839929380865?s=21

He actually doesn’t follow the team on instagram, but he does follow JD and Papi (along with a number of star players on other teams). I’m hopeful but won’t get my hopes up until he’s holding up a Sox jersey at a press conference

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

He actually doesn’t follow the team on instagram, but he does follow JD and Papi (along with a number of star players on other teams). I’m hopeful but won’t get my hopes up until he’s holding up a Sox jersey at a press conference

At one point, he did follow the Red Sox on IG. He's since unfollowed them, which one could read into as unfavorable to the chances of signing with the Red Sox. If one were inclined to read meaning from every little thing the guy does, of course.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

At one point, he did follow the Red Sox on IG. He's since unfollowed them, which one could read into as unfavorable to the chances of signing with the Red Sox. If one were inclined to read meaning from every little thing the guy does, of course.

There’s nothing to be gained from that. He doesn’t appear to be following any team.

This lockout needs to end, I’m starting to get antsy with no baseball news!

 

[Tokyo Sox]

At one point, he did follow the Red Sox on IG. He's since unfollowed them, which one could read into as unfavorable to the chances of signing with the Red Sox. If one were inclined to read meaning from every little thing the guy does, of course.

View: https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1481243680203624452?s=20


"Seiya Suzuki explains that he actually followed the Boston Red Sox two years ago to watch hitters like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. He later confirms that no decision has been made yet regarding any contract, including with the Red Sox."

The whole video interview with Koji is pretty good.

 

[Daniel_Son]

In an article from Chris Cotillo this morning, he talked a bit about Suzuki and other potential outfielders.

"How likely do you think it is that the Red Sox end up signing Seiya Suzuki?

I think he’s squarely in play, but I wouldn’t rule out other outfielders either. Kyle Schwarber is an imperfect fit positionally but a perfect one in the lineup, clubhouse and city. Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Jorge Soler and some others make sense too."

Soler isn't someone I've seen talked about a ton on here. Had some good years in Kansas City in '18-'19, and finished nicely in Atlanta after a pretty crappy first half of 2021. We don't have much in RF - I think he could be a good depth piece there.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Soler is what they hoped Franchy could be.

But yeah, he was gahdawful in KC last year but turned things around significantly in ATL.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Soler is a good potential fit, they need an OF who hits lefties and he qualifies. Seems like he might be available on a 1-2 year deal too. Sign me up!

 

[Manramsclan]

View: https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1481243680203624452?s=20


"Seiya Suzuki explains that he actually followed the Boston Red Sox two years ago to watch hitters like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. He later confirms that no decision has been made yet regarding any contract, including with the Red Sox."

The whole video interview with Koji is pretty good.

Alex Speier quote tweeted this video with the text "This doesn't tell me at all that Seiya Suzuki is coming to the Red Sox, but it does tell me that I want to see more interviews with Koji."

 

[Tokyo Sox]

Alex Speier quote tweeted this video with the text "This doesn't tell me at all that Seiya Suzuki is coming to the Red Sox, but it does tell me that I want to see more interviews with Koji."

Ha yes, perfect.

 

[Manramsclan]

More accurately
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1479834596527292424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

[ehaz]

New article comparing Seiya Suzuki's batted ball profile to MLB hitters:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/will-seiya-suzuki-keep-slugging-in-mlb-metrics-show-he-has-similarities-to-bryce-harper-and-pete-alonso/

I've been aboard the Suzuki hype train this whole off-season. I hope the Sox make it happen. Bring Koji back too in some role.

 

[Daniel_Son]

Stove's getting hot!!

Red Sox sign Taylor Cole to Minor League Deal

Probably doesn't mean anything, but a groundball pitcher with our infield defense doesn't inspire much confidence.

 

[GB5]

Yahoo reporting Sox are front runners to sign Suzuki when lockout is offer. Sorry can’t link. Yahoo sports

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Still kinda silly season as far as rumors. There's this report he'll tour ARI ST complexes when narrowing teams down.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1486107999001366528

 

[nvalvo]

Yahoo reporting Sox are front runners to sign Suzuki when lockout is offer. Sorry can’t link. Yahoo sports

Yeah, I couldn't find any reference to this on their site.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

Yahoo reporting Sox are front runners to sign Suzuki when lockout is offer. Sorry can’t link. Yahoo sports

Still kinda silly season as far as rumors. There's this report he'll tour ARI ST complexes when narrowing teams down.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1486107999001366528

Yeah, I couldn't find any reference to this on their site.

This Yahoo Japan article (in Japanese) does indeed say the Sox are front-runners for Suzuki. However it's in direction contradiction to the Nikkan Sports article @DeadlySplitter posted, which says the 4 finalists are believed to be the Mariners, Cubs, Giants, and Padres. The only time the Sox are mentioned by name in the Nikkan piece is to say that the Sox, Yanks, and other teams based in Florida for ST are thought to have been knocked down a tier by Suzuki after his first round of evaluations.

Both articles came out this morning so, who knows. I guess the only slight reason I have for believing the Yahoo one over the Nikkan one (besides pure wish-casting) is that the Yahoo one talks about Suzuki making his final visit yesterday to his old coaches, owner, and teammates in Hiroshima before they head off for Spring Training, so the sourcing is potentially someone close to him with fresh information. The Nikkan one on the other hand cites "various sources affiliated with MLB," which seems less concrete to me.

But anyway yeah I think it's still too early to know.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

This Yahoo Japan article (in Japanese) does indeed say the Sox are front-runners for Suzuki. However it's in direction contradiction to the Nikkan Sports article @DeadlySplitter posted, which says the 4 finalists are believed to be the Mariners, Cubs, Giants, and Padres. The only time the Sox are mentioned by name in the Nikkan piece is to say that the Sox, Yanks, and other teams based in Florida for ST are thought to have been knocked down a tier by Suzuki after his first round of evaluations.

Both articles came out this morning so, who knows. I guess the only slight reason I have for believing the Yahoo one over the Nikkan one (besides pure wish-casting) is that the Yahoo one talks about Suzuki making his final visit yesterday to his old coaches, owner, and teammates in Hiroshima before they head off for Spring Training, so the sourcing is potentially someone close to him with fresh information. The Nikkan one on the other hand cites "various sources affiliated with MLB," which seems less concrete to me.

But anyway yeah I think it's still too early to know.

I mean, would it kill you to go find out definitively? Isn’t that the point of this site?? We’re dying for news here!

 

[Tokyo Sox]

I mean, would it kill you to go find out definitively? Isn’t that the point of this site?? We’re dying for news here!

Sorry. I'm having lunch with him his afternoon - okonomiyaki, his favorite - so I'll report back in a few hours.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Sorry. I'm having lunch with him his afternoon - okonomiyaki, his favorite - so I'll report back in a few hours.

"in a few hours"??? ... Game thread that lunch

 

[cahlton]

Yahoo's U.S. site has picked up the story

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-rumors-red-sox-expected-222027660.html

 

[bosockboy]

Felt pretty good about it when they moved Renfroe and opened up RF.

 

[Niastri]

"in a few hours"??? ... Game thread that lunch

How many "bathroom breaks" are allowed in a standard Japanese lunch before it's considered rude?