Red Sox Hot Stove Rumors

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snowmanny

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OptimusPapi said:
The dude admitted he messed up so how about you back off
Hey, he gave him a break on the other misspelled words, the missing words, the tortured logic and the unusual punctuation choices.
 

OptimusPapi

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Mar 6, 2014
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I have disagreed with pretty much everything lxt has posted, yet I was always able to understand what he was getting at. If you wish to explain to him why Craig and WMB have no value do so, but the arrogance and snark exhibited on Sosh degrades the quality of the board more then spelling or punctuation mistakes.
 

snowmanny

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It is not clear that Craig or Middlebrooks have any ability to play in the major leagues. Either one of them might demonstrate said ability in the coming year and re-establish value: it's quite possible. I would be shocked, however, if the Red Sox could obtain significant return on either one of them this off-season, and suggesting adding them as pieces to acquire an actual bona fide player smacks of just wishing someone would take Boston's nearly valueless extraneous pieces. But (almost) everyone already knows this.
 

OptimusPapi

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Mar 6, 2014
295
I am not trying to save sosh, that is up to the mods but I tend to stand up when I see bullying. So no I won't shut up and I would ask in the future you try to be more respectful to me and all those around you.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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lxt, Craig needs to prove he can be an effective major leaguer again before he'll have any trade value. He's never been less valuable than he is right now. He's a salary dump if the Sox move him. Nothing more. And Middlebrooks is a bad fit for San Diego. His power is less valuable playing there, where home runs go to die. He doesn't do enough other things right to be of any real value to the Padres.
 
If you want Ross, you are looking at a package of something like Owens and Margot as the center pieces, with additional prospects to flesh it out. I don't think Cespedes would be that interesting to them, for similar reasons to Middlebrooks, though his power would still play, if in a diminished capacity. I don't think the Sox are a great match for the Padres in a trade, so working out something for a pitcher like Ross is going to be very difficult.
 

ehaz

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I'm guessing you start with one of Owens/Rodriguez add in a lower level minors guy like Devers/Margot and round it out with near MLB ready prospects that fill needs on the Padres roster.  Cecchini could fit as a longer term replacement for Headley while Marrero could be useful if they're sick of Everth Cabrera.
 

grimshaw

the new rudy
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May 16, 2007
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Snodgrass'Muff said:
lxt, Craig needs to prove he can be an effective major leaguer again before he'll have any trade value. He's never been less valuable than he is right now. He's a salary dump if the Sox move him. Nothing more. And Middlebrooks is a bad fit for San Diego. His power is less valuable playing there, where home runs go to die. He doesn't do enough other things right to be of any real value to the Padres.
 
If you want Ross, you are looking at a package of something like Owens and Margot as the center pieces, with additional prospects to flesh it out. I don't think Cespedes would be that interesting to them, for similar reasons to Middlebrooks, though his power would still play, if in a diminished capacity. I don't think the Sox are a great match for the Padres in a trade, so working out something for a pitcher like Ross is going to be very difficult.
I don't even think it would take someone as good as Margot tbh (I had suggested Margot up thread but not so sure now.  He's a #3 who is 28 this April. To date a 2.6 WAR is his best season.  He's got less value than Shelby Miller who is 4 years younger and moved for a year of Heyward.  Owens isn't going anywhere without a #2 or all star hitter.  If the Padres were ready to make a run like the Cardinals I could see Cespedes for Ross straight up.  But they aren't so they'd probably get two B prospects..
 
He's a nice pitcher though.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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grimshaw said:
I don't even think it would take someone as good as Margot tbh  He's a #3 who is 28 this April (to date a 2.6 WAR is his best season).  He's got less value than Shelby Miller who is 4 years younger and moved for a year of Heyward.  Owens isn't going anywhere without a #2 or all star hitter.
 
If WAR dictates that Ross is a number 3 starter then WAR is wrong. Ross was tied with Max Scherzer in ERA- last year while throwing 195.2 innings. His 84 xFIP- was barely behind Jon Lester (82) and ahead of Cole Hamels (87) and Johnny Cueto (87). You are severely underrating Tyson Ross here.
 

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ehaz said:
I'm guessing you start with one of Owens/Rodriguez add in a lower level minors guy like Devers/Margot and round it out with near MLB ready prospects that fill needs on the Padres roster.  Cecchini could fit as a longer term replacement for Headley while Marrero could be useful if they're sick of Everth Cabrera.
No way in hell I'd give them Devers.  SD needs bats--Cecchini seems like he would be a good fit as a part of the trade.  Maybe Owens and Cecchini, but that seems like it might be a lot.
 

grimshaw

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
If WAR dictates that Ross is a number 3 starter then WAR is wrong. Ross was tied with Max Scherzer in ERA- last year while throwing 195.2 innings. His 84 xFIP- was barely behind Jon Lester (82) and ahead of Cole Hamels (87) and Johnny Cueto (87). You are severely underrating Tyson Ross here.
Do you really think one all-star season at age 27 in San Diego is enough to give up Henry Owens, Manuel Margot and a few throw ins for?  He had a 6.20 ERA in Oakland two years ago   with 13 starts.  Owens could be better than Ross in two years for peanuts..  
 

67WasBest

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Rudy Pemberton said:
It was a good year, for sure, but it's still just one year in the most pitcher friendly environment in the league. Ian Kennedy looked like an ace there too. Steamer projects him at 1.9 WAR next year. Giving up something like Owens and Margot seems like buying high.
Ross has nearly a 9 K/9 rate, with a 57% ground ball rate and a  3.11 xFIP and 3.24 FIP.  He's not a product of his environment.
 

MakMan44

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Doesn't he have super weird mechanics that might lend itself to injury? I'd be wary of giving up too much, even it's working for him.
 

CaskNFappin

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May 20, 2013
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Craig was the cleanup hitter for last year's World Series runner up. Holy shit, the logic about a ballplayer's outlook in 2015 is so twisted sometimes. He had a bad year plagued by injury. Period.<br />
<br />
It amazes me how he's talked about like a AAAA player and guys who've never spent a day in the bigs get penciled in as can't miss all stars.
 

MakMan44

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To be fair, the guy spent the entire year insisting he was healthy.

Re:Craig
 

grimshaw

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Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
No, like a guy who has never pitched in the big leagues before.
We should trade Cespedes for Syndergaard then.  The Mets probably think he sucks too.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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CaskNFappin said:
Craig was the cleanup hitter for last year's World Series runner up. Holy shit, the logic about a ballplayer's outlook in 2015 is so twisted sometimes. He had a bad year plagued by injury. Period.<br />
<br />
It amazes me how he's talked about like a AAAA player and guys who've never spent a day in the bigs get penciled in as can't miss all stars.
 
No one has called him a AAAA player. People are concerned that the injury he suffered in 2013 is going to prevent him from ever again being as effective as he was before getting hurt. It's a valid concern and any team trading for him would be trading for him at the nadir of his trade value. He's not a piece worth moving as anything other than a salary dump because the chance that he returns to form is worth more to the Sox than the salary relief would be in most situations.
 

67WasBest

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MakMan44 said:
To be fair, the guy spent the entire year insisting he was healthy.

Re:Craig
Healthy, and in game condition are two different things.  The early ends of the season for Pedroia and Napoli were something I was happy to see, I wished they had shut down Craig
 
I've been hoping some of the SABRE brains on here would do a study on the impact of the post season on the following year.  Is it real for all players, and does it hit some harder than others?  What types of players are most susceptible to a fall?  I'd be curious what the data would indicate.
 

grimshaw

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Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Why would we want to trade for a guy who probably sucks?
 
 
All pitching prospects are risky.
Yes.  My point is that Henry Owens and/or Margot are going to fetch a better player than Ross.  If they don't, I quit baseball.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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grimshaw said:
We should trade Cespedes for Syndergaard then.  The Mets probably think he sucks too.
 
It's kind of amusing that the point you are making to support the idea that Owens might be better than Ross at some point actually does a better job of supporting the claim that Ross's 2014 is an indication that he's a very good pitcher. Young pitchers tend to struggle in their first exposure to the higher levels. Ross struggling in his rookie season is not a terribly convincing argument for dismissing his 2014 as an indication of what he is now.
 
Look, I get that you like Owens. He's an exciting pitcher, but his ceiling is what Ross did last year. And that's his absolute ceiling. His chances of reaching it aren't good.There's a really good chance Owens never has a season as good as the one Ross just finished.
 

CaskNFappin

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May 20, 2013
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Put in other terms, his ability to bounce back to form after injury is statistically similar to a "stud" AA prospect's ability to translate minor league success into a successful major league career. <br />
<br />
He's actually proven he can anchor a lineup. More than I can say even for Kris Bryant. People talk about his uncertainty of overcoming an injury in far different terms than they do Rafael Devers' ability to maintain his Gulf Coast numbers against the best pitching in the world.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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CaskNFappin said:
Put in other terms, his ability to bounce back to form after injury is statistically similar to a "stud" AA prospect's ability to translate minor league success into a successful major league career. <br />
<br />
He's actually proven he can anchor a lineup. More than I can say even for Kris Bryant. People talk about his uncertainty of overcoming an injury in far different terms than they do Rafael Devers' ability to maintain his Gulf Coast numbers against the best pitching in the world.
 
Another thing people aren't saying. I don't think anyone is ignoring the relatively high chances of Devers never being an impact bat. He has a long way to go. Pretty much everyone on this site would agree. I can't recall seeing anyone assume that Devers will be a stud. People are excited about him. He's shown a lot of promise. There's a difference between that and ignoring the risk of a flame out.
 
Leave the poor straw-men alone.
 


But when Pedroia puts up declining numbers under these circumstances we call him a dirt dog. 
 
Are you kidding me with this crap? Pedroia managed to still be a productive player while playing hurt. Plus, he gets tons of shit on this board for not only playing hurt, but doing stupid shit like diving head first to get hurt.
 

MakMan44

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CaskNFappin said:
But when Pedroia puts up declining numbers under these circumstances we call him a dirt dog.
This was Pedey's first full season with a wRC+ under 100, including his injury plagued ones. Allen Craig just put up a 69, for comparison. 
 

grimshaw

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
It's kind of amusing that the point you are making to support the idea that Owens might be better than Ross at some point actually does a better job of supporting the claim that Ross's 2014 is an indication that he's a very good pitcher. Young pitchers tend to struggle in their first exposure to the higher levels. Ross struggling in his rookie season is not a terribly convincing argument for dismissing his 2014 as an indication of what he is now.
 
Look, I get that you like Owens. He's an exciting pitcher, but his ceiling is what Ross did last year. And that's his absolute ceiling. His chances of reaching it aren't good.There's a really good chance Owens never has a season as good as the one Ross just finished.
 
You have no idea if Owens will be better than Ross or not and neither do I.  Owens was a #1 sandwich pick and has dominated in the minors.  Some scouts love him, some think he'll be a 2 or three if he doesn't develop the curve.  Maybe he'll take a while to develop but he was a high schooler and will not be old when we have an idea of how well he'll compete in the majors.
 
I had used Shelby Miller as a comparison and he was moved for Jason Heyward who will be a free agent next season.  Miller's pedigree was a first round pick who thus far has had 1 good year and one very bad one.  He's 3 years younger and is cost controlled for a long while.  Tyson Ross was a 2nd rounder who struggled for 3 years before hitting his stride the past few seasons.  At 28 he is running out of time on being cost controlled..  Whether you think he's as valuable as Cueto or Lester or another guy moving forward is going to be our point of contention.  I see him as #3.  You see him as an ace.  I think a more reasonable offer is Cecchini, Johnson and Shaw.  You want to go with 2 blue chippers..
 
I happen to think Margot is going to be a better player than Owens so you can understand where I'm coming from that giving up both doesn't make sense form my perspective..  He's rated as 50 power, 65 speed, and 70 defense in centerfield and young hitters at premium defensive positions are not something to just cough up.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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grimshaw said:
 
Whether you think he's as valuable as Cueto or Lester or another guy moving forward is going to be our point of contention.  I see him as #3.  You see him as an ace.  I think a more reasonable offer is Cecchini, Johnson and Shaw.  You want to go with 2 blue chippers..
 
Your reading comprehension could use a bit of work. I never called him an ace. I simply disagreed that he's a 3 and I'm still waiting for you to provide some kind of statistical argument beyond WAR that supports the idea that Ross is a middle of the rotation starter. Even by fWAR (which is what it appears you were referencing) he was tied for 39th in the majors. That's not a middle of the rotation guy. It's a 2 bordering on a 1. After he was traded he changed his approach and started throwing the slider more. Fangraphs ranked it as the 15th best pitch in the majors in a July article last year. In fact, give that entire thing a read. It might help to explain why I'm so high on him.
 
What I see is a pitcher who, in his first taste of the major leagues struggled and was traded away. In his next call up he was significantly better than average and in his first full season as a starter was very good. Yes, he's going to be 28, but since moving to a more slider heavy approach and ditching his four seam fastball in favor of a sinker, he's been one of the better pitchers in the National League.
 
As for Margot, our definitions of "blue chipper" are apparently a bit different. I'd call Swihart a blue chip prospect. I'm not sure I'd call anyone else in the Red Sox system one. Owens and Rodriguez both lack front of the rotation ceilings, though Rodriguez is intriguing in that his velocity jumped at the end of the year in a way that could change that for him. Devers and Margot are too far away to be valued that highly, IMO. Regardless, Ross would be a fantastic compliment to a Lester signing and I'd be thrilled if they could turn Owens and something less than Margot into him. I'm guessing it'll take something closer to those two in value, though, as Ross is a really good pitcher.
 

SydneySox

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BeantownIdaho said:
SOSH....where even hypothetical trades can get you a visit from the mafia.  This place is getting eerily Dungeons and Dragons-esque.
So many questions.

Hypothetical trades... They're the good ones to talk about? As opposed to... Real trades?

The mafia are known for what?

How is SoSh Dungeons and Dragons-fake word addition to sound smart?
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
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OptimusPapi said:
I am not trying to save sosh, that is up to the mods but I tend to stand up when I see bullying. So no I won't shut up and I would ask in the future you try to be more respectful to me and all those around you.
There is a report button. Use it. 
 

lxt

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Sep 12, 2012
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I love it when someone, usually me, makes a suggested trade that fires up the board. This has been a great discussion with some really well thought out arguments.
 

grimshaw

the new rudy
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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
Your reading comprehension could use a bit of work. I never called him an ace. I simply disagreed that he's a 3 and I'm still waiting for you to provide some kind of statistical argument beyond WAR that supports the idea that Ross is a middle of the rotation starter. Even by fWAR (which is what it appears you were referencing) he was tied for 39th in the majors. That's not a middle of the rotation guy. It's a 2 bordering on a 1. After he was traded he changed his approach and started throwing the slider more. Fangraphs ranked it as the 15th best pitch in the majors in a July article last year. In fact, give that entire thing a read. It might help to explain why I'm so high on him.
 
What I see is a pitcher who, in his first taste of the major leagues struggled and was traded away. In his next call up he was significantly better than average and in his first full season as a starter was very good. Yes, he's going to be 28, but since moving to a more slider heavy approach and ditching his four seam fastball in favor of a sinker, he's been one of the better pitchers in the National League.
 
As for Margot, our definitions of "blue chipper" are apparently a bit different. I'd call Swihart a blue chip prospect. I'm not sure I'd call anyone else in the Red Sox system one. Owens and Rodriguez both lack front of the rotation ceilings, though Rodriguez is intriguing in that his velocity jumped at the end of the year in a way that could change that for him. Devers and Margot are too far away to be valued that highly, IMO. Regardless, Ross would be a fantastic compliment to a Lester signing and I'd be thrilled if they could turn Owens and something less than Margot into him. I'm guessing it'll take something closer to those two in value, though, as Ross is a really good pitcher.
In the past two years: 73rd in innings pitched, 19th in FIP, 90th in BB/9, 62nd in WAR, 15th in k/9 between all time greats Burnett and Ian Kennedy. 9th in ERA.  But really, really great in that one stat you provided that makes him a 2 or however much you think he's worth moving 4 guys for.
 
When he was 25 the A's traded him and another prospect for Andy Parrino and Andrew Werner.  I had to look up both of them.
 
Look, it doesn't even matter how much I value Owens or Margot.  There is no way in hell the Red Sox are going to move them for him. 
Those are guys you include for someone like Tulo.  Actual impact players.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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So 19th in FIP and 15th in k/9 work against me? If you had read the article I'd linked you would see that he made some very specific changes that account for the steps forward over the last two seasons. Also, his IP is low over the last two years because he started 2013 in the pen and was converted to a starter. Plus, ERA-, FIP-, xFIP-, ERA, FIP, xFIP, k/9, gb/fb and even WAR all point to him being a solid number 2 at worst. The article I linked makes a pretty good case for him being a front of the rotation guy, even if you want to draw a line between "number 1" and "ace."

Whatever. I've made my point and you've made it clear you aren't even reading what you are responding to. Moving on.

Edit: added context,
 

Plympton91

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CaskNFappin said:
Craig was the cleanup hitter for last year's World Series runner up. Holy shit, the logic about a ballplayer's outlook in 2015 is so twisted sometimes. He had a bad year plagued by injury. Period.<br />
<br />
It amazes me how he's talked about like a AAAA player and guys who've never spent a day in the bigs get penciled in as can't miss all stars.
The problem is, the injury that plagued him oftentimes doesn't heal. And, the longer the injury lingers, the less likely it is to heal. You can't blame last year on the injury and be optimistic about his future.
 

grimshaw

the new rudy
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Snodgrass'Muff said:
So 19th in FIP and 15th in k/9 work against me? If you had read the article I'd linked you would see that he made some very specific changes that account for the steps forward over the last two seasons. Also, his IP. Is low over the last two years because he started 2013 in that pen and was converted to a starter. Plus, last time I checked, ERA, FIP, xFIP, ERA- and ERA+ makes 5 stats, not 1.

Whatever. I've made my point and you've made it clear you aren't even reading what you are responding to. Moving on.
To be clear, I am enjoying this discussion.
 
Do you know how many articles detail the changes pitchers make when they start to have some success while making adjustments to their repertoire?  
 
Clay Buchholz has had his change up working for a year with his other offerings and be an ace, and then go in the shitter for months.
 
Beckett rediscovered his curve thanks to AJ Ellis and was unhittable the first few starts of the season before reverting to his typical season over the past few years.
 
I'd argue that Ross is following the normal age curve of what most players show, up until their peak seasons of 26-28.  This involves learning hitters, polishing location, taking pitches in and out of their repertoire, making mechanical adjustments etc.  He could have a set back, he may not.  I don't know that based on one all-star year out of 5.  If this is as good as he is and he sustains it, then fine he's a 2 and you win. 
 
That said - our argument has been more about what that is worth as a cost in prospects and we are nowhere near agreement there due to a combination of factors, namely my comparison in what was moved in the Cards/Braves deal relative to the age and cost of both Miller and Ross.
 
I would be thrilled if they got him for the guys I listed before and be really disappointed if they gave up the pieces you suggested.  I'd even do a green guy like Devers who was mentioned upthread as well.  Margot is way more projectable since he already has defense and speed and that's going to translate.
 
Anyhow, I'll move on as well.
 

DJnVa

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OptimusPapi said:
, but the arrogance and snark exhibited on Sosh degrades the quality of the board
 

You, sir, are describing a feature, not a bug.
 

NomosRubber

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Plympton91 said:
The problem is, the injury that plagued him oftentimes doesn't heal. And, the longer the injury lingers, the less likely it is to heal. You can't blame last year on the injury and be optimistic about his future.
IIRC, both Craig and the Red Sox stated the position that Craig was healthy during the season and there was little risk of recurrence of the injury as he played.  However, the last off-season provided no preparation time as he was still healing.  Perhaps this is akin to an otherwise healthy Drew never really getting to his normal performance levels after missing all of Spring Training and the first two months of the season.  After the just-completed season, Craig expected to prepare freely without hindrance of the injury.  This suggests he and the Red Sox believe a bounce-back season is likely.  If so, it's unlikely that anything involving Craig would materialize until the end of Spring Training, at the earliest, so that some value can be re-established.
 

grimshaw

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Interesting recent Craig article here.  http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/is-allen-craig-this-bad/
I'm not quite ready to bury Craig yet because we can at least see in spring training if his bat speed is back against hard fastballs.
One of the guys thought his swing had changed and he had lost some loft on the ball because of it.  Hopefully it wasn't cheating on inside fastballs.
I'd give him until March 15th or so to work with a new hitting coach on mechanics.  He may be mostly dead which is slightly alive.
 

MakMan44

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Considering what they just got for Heyward and that Upton is worth less, I think the Sox have the resources to make a play if they want to. Whether they should is a different question. I'm on the fence but I think I'd rather have him than Cespedes in LF.
 

JohntheBaptist

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MakMan44 said:
Considering what they just got for Heyward and that Upton is worth less, I think the Sox have the resources to make a play if they want to. Whether they should is a different question. I'm on the fence but I think I'd rather have him than Cespedes in LF.
 
Not that I agree, but the link specifically states the Braves are looking for "more than Heyward" for Upton.
 
If it worked out somehow I'd love Upton for LF, and he is actually someone who could transition over to be a Papi DH replacement eventually, which seemed like an odd fit for Sandoval for me. I doubt this is a front-burner thing for the Sox, although you have to think most teams looking for a power hitting OF would prefer Upton to Cespedes, so that crowds the market for a bit unfortunately.
 
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