....and trade for Hamels (without Betts in the equation).... Lester, Sherzer, Hamels locked up for the next 5 years. Even if you go over 60 mil to spend other pieces could be moved (Cepedes) to get under.Yaz4Ever said:
Red Sox Hot Stove Rumors
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I'm not saying you're wrong, but what more would the Sox be comfortable offering for a single season of Zimmerman? I think unless someone gives the Nats an MLB ready stud prospect like Baez or Russell from Chicago he's not being moved. And I wouldn't give up Swihart/Betts for a rental. I guess we just don't matchup.sean1562 said:
@ScottLauber: If #RedSox want to trade for Hamels, "ball is more in their court," source says, but "not sure they want to move kids." Focus more on Lester
Yeah, the Nats don't really have any business trading a high end SP like Zimmermann, unless they acquire Shields or Lester or someone at the same time. They are pennant contenders as things stand.
edit: To clarify, I guess I'm saying I doubt there's any package they could realistically get that would be more win-now oriented than just keeping Zimmermann. They don't project to have much trouble winning the East; they need to think about how they can get past the Giants or Cardinals or Dodgers in a short series.
edit: To clarify, I guess I'm saying I doubt there's any package they could realistically get that would be more win-now oriented than just keeping Zimmermann. They don't project to have much trouble winning the East; they need to think about how they can get past the Giants or Cardinals or Dodgers in a short series.
Novelty purposes only, but Jeff Sullivan suggests some Hamels-to-Boston scenarios at Fangraphs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/
Danny_Darwin said:
A few thoughts about that article.
1. I love it.
2. It makes me incredibly excited for the Sox' farm system, because they have SO MANY quality pieces.
3. I can't believe fangraphs says that Owens for Hamels straight up would be steep for the Sox, from a fair value standpoint. I mean, how many people here would NOT make that trade straight-up if the Phillies offered it today?
4. Amaro is a complete idiot.
ivanvamp said:
I agree with all of your points except number 3. I've been of the opinion since all of this talk started that they shouldn't give up too much to get Hamels and the right to pay him basically market rate but for maybe a year or even two years less. That's all we're really talking about here. I agree with Sullivan that Hamels isn't quite as good as Lester or Scherzer, so trading multiple top prospects for that contract instead of signing one of the FAs is nonsensical to me. I'd do Owens for Hamels, but throwing in anything substantial above that would annoy me.
glennhoffmania said:
Just curious, why does everyone seem to agree with this? They're statistically identical with a slight edge to Hamels. Maybe you value Lester's postseason resume but remember, Hamels won a World Series MVP. Perhaps it's his ability to pitch in the AL East but that would just make them a wash to me due to Hamels' edge in strike outs and walks.
Hamels career: 3.27 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 125 ERA +, 8.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Lester career: 3.58, ERA, 3.58 FIP, 121 ERA+, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
ehaz said:
People who know stats better than I should address this, but nearly identical stats for a pitcher who has spent his career in the NL would not seen to equate to identical "quality." Could be wrong about that,though.
But if Lester signs elsewhere, there's unlikely to be a LH starter on the market better than Hamels
I'd guess the parks and especially the DH-less NL are the biggest factors. Pitching to a pitcher every third inning can't be overrated enough IMO. Jake Peavy thrived in the NL immediately after getting torched in the AL.ehaz said:
ERA+ is league and park adjusted. Looking at other league adjusted stats, Lester has the edge in FIP- (83 vs 85) and Hamels has the edge in xFIP- (83 vs 88).E5 Yaz said:
If Lester and Hamels is possible, that would be a scary, scary rotation. It would essentially be like signing Lester again but for less years and slightly less dollars. Hamels is also a change up artist with a career reverse platoon split so it's not like the rotation would be vulnerable to right handed batters.
ehaz said:
We're comparing two very good pitchers and the difference probably isn't significant either way, but basically for the reasons others have already mentioned. Hamels has proven to be a very good pitcher in the NL, and during a time when usually at least two of the teams in his division were really bad. This excerpt from Sullivan's article expands on the point:
So if we're looking at two fairly comparable pitchers, and one has pitched his entire career in the AL, and all in the AL East except for two months, and the other has pitched in the NL East, ERA+ isn't going to convince me that Hamels is better despite that reality.
I take your point, but the Phiilies don't exactly have a great pitchers' park.glennhoffmania said:
Jason Mastrodonato @JMastrodonato 3s3 seconds ago
If the Red Sox actually think they'll have room for Francisco (plus Brock Holt) on the 25-man, all but guarantees that OFs will be dealt.
If the Red Sox actually think they'll have room for Francisco (plus Brock Holt) on the 25-man, all but guarantees that OFs will be dealt.
But he's such an idiot that it may work for him. Okay, so that's a throwaway comment. He seems to have a tendency to overvalue his players to the point it paralyzes him. At least that's the perception I get.ivanvamp said:
Not just an AL East known quantity, but a Red Sox known quantity.glennhoffmania said:
RedOctober3829 said:
Now were talking far as 3B goes..
I'd rather spend the money on HR (3B) instead of worrying about the decline, the weight issues and at some point defensive issues if you sign Sandoval?..
Does anyone think Sandoval has AGonzalez , CCrawford or perhaps Renteria written all over him? I just don't see how 17 to 18 mill justifies a Player with average power. I got a bad feeling about this Player..
All the above names are great, for goodness sake's Ben, get in the game!
Red(s)HawksFan said:
Your right on the contract.
If you dump a deal such as Victorino or Craig while taking on BJU maybe you salvage him. Player never hit for Average but has some pop and can steal a base..
I think Justin Upton is worth it..
MakMan44 said:
No kidding. There's a bit of revisionist history creeping in in various places re: Adrian Gonzalez and his contract. In no way did he suck or did his contract suck...in fact, he was so valuable that the Dodgers were willing to take on a kind of crappy deal in Beckett and an absolute albatross of a deal in Crawford to get him. To put that in perspective, nobody would take Manny in his prime when he was on waivers. Which I suppose begs the question, who was dumber, the Dodgers for pulling the trigger on The Punto Trade or the other 29 clubs for passing on Manny?
MakMan44 said:
I'm not sure anyone's worth taking on that BJ deal.
Liriano would be a really good deal and top of the rotation starter for 1.5 of those 4 years. The majority of the time he'd be awful/hurt.
grimshaw said:
Their top pick is protected and they'll probably be losing their 2nd pick via one of Sandoval/Hanley/Shields, so I doubt this is much of a consideration.
ERA+ of 118 and 105 the last two years, 160+ IP both years. I'd like one of him or McCarthy as a compliment to Lester.
Keep hearing the Sox haven't yet made an offer to Sandoval but are prepping one.
I kind of wonder if they are waiting for Lester to make a decision. Let's say they are wanting to offer Sandoval 6/105. And you just offered Lester 6/110-120. Does that not get out and the Lester camp says 'wait a minute. If you're going to give Panda 6/105, we aren't settling for less than 6/150.'
They would be pretty right in their thinking. The gap in talent is pretty large and I can certainly see some leveraging from Lesters camp based on Pandas offer if it got out or he signed before Lester
I kind of wonder if they are waiting for Lester to make a decision. Let's say they are wanting to offer Sandoval 6/105. And you just offered Lester 6/110-120. Does that not get out and the Lester camp says 'wait a minute. If you're going to give Panda 6/105, we aren't settling for less than 6/150.'
They would be pretty right in their thinking. The gap in talent is pretty large and I can certainly see some leveraging from Lesters camp based on Pandas offer if it got out or he signed before Lester
SoxFanForsyth said:
That's an interesting take. Although at the outset of negotiations the Sox had to be working with the expectations that they may sign Panda to a large deal prior to the conclusion of the Lester negotiations. IMO, it's almost a foregone conclusion that the Lester negotiations will be prolonged, as it doesn't serve him well to be the first pitcher to sign. Whereas, it seems the Panda negotiations appear destined to be contracted b/c there are so few suitors willing to spend the money needed to sign the guy.
Diluting the draft pool becomes a problem at some point though. It's a balancing act and I don't think Liriano a guy I'm comfortable signing because of that. Without a pick, sure, I'd like him on a 3-4 year deal but I think McCarthy is the smarter signing of the two.moondog80 said:
ESPN New Hampshire @ESPNNH 7m7 minutes ago
According to @nickcafardo the Red Sox have checked in on RHP Jason Hammel. Free agent got traded to A's by Cubs last season.
According to @nickcafardo the Red Sox have checked in on RHP Jason Hammel. Free agent got traded to A's by Cubs last season.
Rudy Pemberton said:
I worry that with Buchholz' high-upside, high-risk profile as a #4-5 starter with ace upside already in the fold, Liriano doesn't really fill our need. We need stable innings.
So I hesitate to bring this up because I both don't really buy it and can already predict the reaction, but since it's out there already, the Tigers might be shopping Price. I think the Sox should look into it, awkward conversations be damned, but I am guessing many of you disagree?
Someone mentioned trading for Ross & Cashner (SD) and that is starting to sound good to me. Sign Lester for the 6/$132 he wants and trade for those two gives the Sox a rotation of Lester, Ross, Buchholz, Cashner and Kelly. Not bad. Gives them money to sign Miller and maybe another quality pen arm (Trade someone like Ranaudo or Workman) to go with Uehara & Tazawa and sign whatever 3B they want.
SD needs offense and offering Craig, Middlebrooks, Brentz, Marrero and Shaw would give them a lot to work with. Not sure if they'd want an arm to go with a trade as they seem to have a boatload of arms. Possibly throw in Ramos or Rijo if either Shaw or Brentz is not to their liking.
SD needs offense and offering Craig, Middlebrooks, Brentz, Marrero and Shaw would give them a lot to work with. Not sure if they'd want an arm to go with a trade as they seem to have a boatload of arms. Possibly throw in Ramos or Rijo if either Shaw or Brentz is not to their liking.
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 1m1 minute ago
The #Nats are informing teams that ace Jordan Zimmermann is available,but only if they get strong return,emphasizing it is not a salary dump
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 21s21 seconds ago
Veteran #Nats pitcher Doug Fister, who like Zimmermann also is eligible for free agency in 1 year, also is available if a deal makes sense
The #Nats are informing teams that ace Jordan Zimmermann is available,but only if they get strong return,emphasizing it is not a salary dump
Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 21s21 seconds ago
Veteran #Nats pitcher Doug Fister, who like Zimmermann also is eligible for free agency in 1 year, also is available if a deal makes sense
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 47s47 seconds ago
Red Sox int'l scouting director Eddie Romero has seen Yoan Moncada, declined to say much other than that team can be "aggressive" with $.
Red Sox int'l scouting director Eddie Romero has seen Yoan Moncada, declined to say much other than that team can be "aggressive" with $.
That would really put a strain on some fans (me included). Rooting for the "laundry" only goes so far. I couldn't root for that guy.Danny_Darwin said:
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