Red Sox acquire Adam Ottavino and RHP prospect Frank German from Yankees for PTBNL

jose melendez

Earl of Acie
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2003
24,505
Washington DC
A lot of Bloom's moves kind of feel Duquetteish to me. He's kicking the tires on a lot of guys who used to be good and suddenly stopped being good for unclear reasons or injury reclamation projects.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
52,733
Ottavino was great against lefties (not as dominant as against righties, but very good) until 2019, at which point his hard hit % against them skyrocketed and he started walking them at an absurd rate. That fall off doesn't really correspond with a huge change in repetoire from what I can tell, other than in 2019 he threw his cutter more than ever, then in 2020 he only threw it 4% but added a changeup for the first time since 2014. The last two seasons were two of his three worst seasons at getting guys to swing at pitches out of the zone. I have no idea why, but I'm assuming that is the direct reason for his rising bb rate and hard contact %. If the Sox can fix something, and get him able to get guys to swing at pitches out of the zone again, I don't see why he can't be a great pitcher again. Big "if" of course
He would do a lot better with an automated strike zone, his stuff is so insane that it seems to fool the ump fairly frequently.
 

crow216

Dragon Wangler
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
17,360
Astoria
How do you get to $9 rather than $8.15? The signing bonus shouldn't matter to the AAV, and we learned from Speier during the Wil Myers saga that any cash moving in a trade is not amortized over past years of the deal.
Yea, you're right on the $8.15. I wasn't sure if it was 9+3 or 8+3
 

azsoxpatsfan

Member
SoSH Member
May 23, 2014
1,465
His last two years he's had his lowest average velocity on his sliders. Could be why he's getting fewer swings at pitches out of the zone.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
52,733
I think that was an attempted joke by Heyman? It wasn't funny though, so dunno.
 

Dewey'sCannon

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
735
Maryland
So depending on the source, the Sox were somewhere between $11.5 and $14 million under the CBT cap before this deal, which would put them $3-5 million under it after this deal.

Unless they are willing to exceed the cap, this certainly seems to eliminate any other significant FA acquisitions, including JBJ. They might be able to sign a cheap LHH backup for 1B, but that would be it, unless there are trades to free up some cap space (Benintendi or Barnes), as noted above. In that sense this is a curious move.

Unless, of course, they are willing to exceed the cap this year - which would be odd given their approach thus far this offseason, and the current state of their roster. It would open the door for resigning JBJ, or signing Ozuna, but I don't see this happening.
 

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
12,416
UWS, NYC
No JBJ, no Marcus Semien... looks like potentially pretty big holes at 2B and CF (beyond the whole bullpen and rotation thing).

I have no problem with a reset year, but I think it's time to call it what it likely is.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
12,410
Miami (oh, Miami!)
A lot of Bloom's moves kind of feel Duquetteish to me. He's kicking the tires on a lot of guys who used to be good and suddenly stopped being good for unclear reasons or injury reclamation projects.
I'd be less worried if there wasn't significant cash tied up with some of these - you can trade mediocrities for salary relief, but it's hard to do it without sweetening the pot with a prospect. . .oh, hey!

More seriously, in isolation it's a sensible trade/risk though. But I hear you.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
13,495
St. Louis, MO
No JBJ, no Marcus Semien... looks like potentially pretty big holes at 2B and CF (beyond the whole bullpen and rotation thing).

I have no problem with a reset year, but I think it's time to call it what it likely is.
Hernandez has 2B or CF covered. We need one of those two filled and a cheap LHH 1B.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
11,497
So the Sox have recently added/signed

SP Martin Perez - decent back-end of the rotation guy
SP Garrett Richards - decent back-end of the rotation guy with some upside
IF Kiké Hernandez - modest player but who can play multiple positions
RP Adam Ottavino - solid reliever with upside

That's not terrible. None are earth-shattering, but they're building perhaps a respectable baseball team.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
2,076
So depending on the source, the Sox were somewhere between $11.5 and $14 million under the CBT cap before this deal, which would put them $3-5 million under it after this deal.

Unless they are willing to exceed the cap, this certainly seems to eliminate any other significant FA acquisitions, including JBJ. They might be able to sign a cheap LHH backup for 1B, but that would be it, unless there are trades to free up some cap space (Benintendi or Barnes), as noted above. In that sense this is a curious move.

Unless, of course, they are willing to exceed the cap this year - which would be odd given their approach thus far this offseason, and the current state of their roster. It would open the door for resigning JBJ, or signing Ozuna, but I don't see this happening.
Besides the fact that it's money and they're likely losing a lot of it without ticket sales, I don't see any baseball-related reason not to exceed the cap this year. We have so much money coming off the books by the end of 2022 -- everyone but Sale and Bogaerts (who'll likely opt out). Unless they're bumping their luxury tax reset year to 2024 to time with Devers' last arb year, then 2020 was the reset year and 2023 likely will be too.
 

JBJ_HOF

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2014
419
If you're not all-in why go over? The rules will be new starting next year with the cba, so you will start fresh with the new rules, your foundation will be much better, and you can start playing in the major free agent class.

It sucks, but is reality. The super teams this year are staying under this year, which is pathetic.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
47,807
deep inside Guido territory
Besides the fact that it's money and they're likely losing a lot of it without ticket sales, I don't see any baseball-related reason not to exceed the cap this year. We have so much money coming off the books by the end of 2022 -- everyone but Sale and Bogaerts (who'll likely opt out). Unless they're bumping their luxury tax reset year to 2024 to time with Devers' last arb year, then 2020 was the reset year and 2023 likely will be too.
Why would you go over the cap for this team? The cap penalties are not worth it.
 

ponch73

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2006
695
Stumptown via Chelmsford
Isn't being on the opposite side of a trade with Cashman akin to being a European central bank fighting George Soros?

This makes me think Ottavino is on the downslope of his career, and Bloom really wanted German.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,535
Portland
They can still move 5 mill if Beni is traded (minus whatever is coming back) too fwiw. But I don't see much reason to go over this season.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
2,076
If you're not all-in why go over? The rules will be new starting next year with the cba, so you will start fresh with the new rules, your foundation will be much better, and you can start playing in the major free agent class.

It sucks, but is reality. The super teams this year are staying under this year, which is pathetic.
The super teams are staying under because they've already been over and the penalties are higher for them, right?

It's John Henry's money and maybe that's the deciding factor, but I don't see any real baseball benefit staying under given the contracts we currently have. Especially if you're mostly adding salary on short-term deals that expire after 2022. We have more than $115M coming off the books by the end of the 2022 season, and another $20M more if Bogaerts opts out.

There seems to be a market opportunity for us right now with other teams constrained. Going over in 2021 doesn't put us in any worse condition for next year's FA class unless our payroll somehow exceeds $250M. There's 40-man and Rule 5 eligibility management to consider of course, but acquiring players means you have more assets to potentially flip for prospects.

Another reason I don't like the "start fresh" plan of waiting a year to spend is that if the CBA penalties stay roughly equal, it puts us on the same reset year track as the Yankees, who typically can outbid us.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
19,335
This makes me think Ottavino is on the downslope of his career, and Bloom really wanted German.
I dont know about the former, but the latter is quite likely true. And since I have always thought that paying big for any relief pitcher that isnt at or near the top is a fools errand, I hope he's right about German.
 

crow216

Dragon Wangler
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
17,360
Astoria
It sucks, but is reality. The super teams this year are staying under this year, which is pathetic.
What do we think this says about the impending CBA? Does seem like a renewed focus by large teams to stay under.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
52,733
Oh, also, Ottavino is totally incapable of preventing stolen bases, which is not ideal for a pitcher who often walks guys.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
187
Some more context for his stats from 2020, from McAdam: Ottavino’s ERA skyrocketed in large part because of a poor outing against the Blue Jays in which he allowed six runs without recording an out. Minus that appearance, Ottavino’s ERA was 2.98.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
2,076
I'll be curious to see where German slots in amongst Red Sox prospects.
Fangraphs has slotted him at #25, just above Jacob Wallace who we got for Pillar and five spots above Whitlock. They have him as the 6th best arm in the system behind Mata, Houck, Bazardo, Bello and Ward.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
67,832
Oregon
Relievers, particularly those with some success in the past, can be notoriously back and forth ... as can bullpens in general. Ottavino could be off the rails, or he could have a good year. Either way, what he did with the Yankees doesn't matter much to me going forward.
 

jose melendez

Earl of Acie
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2003
24,505
Washington DC
I'd be less worried if there wasn't significant cash tied up with some of these - you can trade mediocrities for salary relief, but it's hard to do it without sweetening the pot with a prospect. . .oh, hey!

More seriously, in isolation it's a sensible trade/risk though. But I hear you.
Mostly one year deals though aren't they? Overpaying for a year is irrelevant if you stay under the tax threshold.
 

OurF'ingCity

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
5,346
New York City
Yeah. I believe that this signing, in addition to the non-JBJ signing, will kill my enjoyment of the team, which was teetering on the brink anyway. Oh, well.
I don't really get this thinking, at least with regard to Ottavino specifically. If he's pitching in high-leverage innings, that means at minimum he is better than the other options for the Sox. And if he's really bad, he won't be pitching in high-leverage innings. So there isn't really a scenario where having Ottavino on the team will make them significantly less enjoyable than they would have been otherwise, regardless of how good or bad he is.
 

A Bad Man

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2016
305
Bloom knows what he is doing. We are resource-rich and won the World Series as recently as 2018 (!). I am keenly, Frank Germanly excited to see what develops.
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
35,463
Love the somewhat outside the box thinking here, and it's low risk to boot. L'Chaim, Mr. Bloom.