He would do a lot better with an automated strike zone, his stuff is so insane that it seems to fool the ump fairly frequently.Ottavino was great against lefties (not as dominant as against righties, but very good) until 2019, at which point his hard hit % against them skyrocketed and he started walking them at an absurd rate. That fall off doesn't really correspond with a huge change in repetoire from what I can tell, other than in 2019 he threw his cutter more than ever, then in 2020 he only threw it 4% but added a changeup for the first time since 2014. The last two seasons were two of his three worst seasons at getting guys to swing at pitches out of the zone. I have no idea why, but I'm assuming that is the direct reason for his rising bb rate and hard contact %. If the Sox can fix something, and get him able to get guys to swing at pitches out of the zone again, I don't see why he can't be a great pitcher again. Big "if" of course
Yea, you're right on the $8.15. I wasn't sure if it was 9+3 or 8+3How do you get to $9 rather than $8.15? The signing bonus shouldn't matter to the AAV, and we learned from Speier during the Wil Myers saga that any cash moving in a trade is not amortized over past years of the deal.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1353760193453187077?s=20He was lousy last year, but has been a pretty good relief guy for his career, especially for a guy who spent most of his time at Coors Field.
View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1353755684601556994?s=21Heyman says the Sox are still in on him, so there are probably still some moving parts.
That's weird considering in 2019 he was in NY and was pretty good.View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1353755684601556994?s=21
Heyman also says this, which is interesting and invites some speculation.
I know it has been a while since seeing a Yankees game, but why is he pitching in his pajamas?
I'd be less worried if there wasn't significant cash tied up with some of these - you can trade mediocrities for salary relief, but it's hard to do it without sweetening the pot with a prospect. . .oh, hey!A lot of Bloom's moves kind of feel Duquetteish to me. He's kicking the tires on a lot of guys who used to be good and suddenly stopped being good for unclear reasons or injury reclamation projects.
Hernandez has 2B or CF covered. We need one of those two filled and a cheap LHH 1B.No JBJ, no Marcus Semien... looks like potentially pretty big holes at 2B and CF (beyond the whole bullpen and rotation thing).
I have no problem with a reset year, but I think it's time to call it what it likely is.
Besides the fact that it's money and they're likely losing a lot of it without ticket sales, I don't see any baseball-related reason not to exceed the cap this year. We have so much money coming off the books by the end of 2022 -- everyone but Sale and Bogaerts (who'll likely opt out). Unless they're bumping their luxury tax reset year to 2024 to time with Devers' last arb year, then 2020 was the reset year and 2023 likely will be too.So depending on the source, the Sox were somewhere between $11.5 and $14 million under the CBT cap before this deal, which would put them $3-5 million under it after this deal.
Unless they are willing to exceed the cap, this certainly seems to eliminate any other significant FA acquisitions, including JBJ. They might be able to sign a cheap LHH backup for 1B, but that would be it, unless there are trades to free up some cap space (Benintendi or Barnes), as noted above. In that sense this is a curious move.
Unless, of course, they are willing to exceed the cap this year - which would be odd given their approach thus far this offseason, and the current state of their roster. It would open the door for resigning JBJ, or signing Ozuna, but I don't see this happening.
Why would you go over the cap for this team? The cap penalties are not worth it.Besides the fact that it's money and they're likely losing a lot of it without ticket sales, I don't see any baseball-related reason not to exceed the cap this year. We have so much money coming off the books by the end of 2022 -- everyone but Sale and Bogaerts (who'll likely opt out). Unless they're bumping their luxury tax reset year to 2024 to time with Devers' last arb year, then 2020 was the reset year and 2023 likely will be too.
The super teams are staying under because they've already been over and the penalties are higher for them, right?If you're not all-in why go over? The rules will be new starting next year with the cba, so you will start fresh with the new rules, your foundation will be much better, and you can start playing in the major free agent class.
It sucks, but is reality. The super teams this year are staying under this year, which is pathetic.
I dont know about the former, but the latter is quite likely true. And since I have always thought that paying big for any relief pitcher that isnt at or near the top is a fools errand, I hope he's right about German.This makes me think Ottavino is on the downslope of his career, and Bloom really wanted German.
At least he's demanding a prospect for doing so. That's an improvement.A lot of Bloom's moves kind of feel Duquetteish to me. He's kicking the tires on a lot of guys who used to be good and suddenly stopped being good for unclear reasons or injury reclamation projects.
Fangraphs has slotted him at #25, just above Jacob Wallace who we got for Pillar and five spots above Whitlock. They have him as the 6th best arm in the system behind Mata, Houck, Bazardo, Bello and Ward.I'll be curious to see where German slots in amongst Red Sox prospects.
Mostly one year deals though aren't they? Overpaying for a year is irrelevant if you stay under the tax threshold.I'd be less worried if there wasn't significant cash tied up with some of these - you can trade mediocrities for salary relief, but it's hard to do it without sweetening the pot with a prospect. . .oh, hey!
More seriously, in isolation it's a sensible trade/risk though. But I hear you.
I don't really get this thinking, at least with regard to Ottavino specifically. If he's pitching in high-leverage innings, that means at minimum he is better than the other options for the Sox. And if he's really bad, he won't be pitching in high-leverage innings. So there isn't really a scenario where having Ottavino on the team will make them significantly less enjoyable than they would have been otherwise, regardless of how good or bad he is.Yeah. I believe that this signing, in addition to the non-JBJ signing, will kill my enjoyment of the team, which was teetering on the brink anyway. Oh, well.