RealFantasy Pigskin - Progress Report

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Not really sure. I've been slammed by work/holidays and it won't be letting up for a while. If anybody wants to aggregate PFF numbers or take the lead organizing some polls on division winners, go right ahead.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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I guess it depends on what the majority feels is a more accurate assessment. PFF numbers are good but there's some noise in their calculations. A breakdown of divisions would be cool to see but I'm not sure anyone has the time or wants to put the effort towards it.
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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Jan 17, 2006
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I think using PFF as a guideline is a good idea. Probably add some weighted numbers, for instance there is no way Tom Brady (+16.3) is less valuable than a FB (Anthony Sherman +17.9) or a P (Sam Martin +16.4). From there we can discuss why we think our team is better (or in some cases worse) than what the numbers suggest. I know my main talking point would be Eli in front of a good pass blocking line could be somewhat (Eli)te. Or at least better than he was with the Giants. 
 

Super Nomario

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Here's my end-of-season round-up, from what went well to what didn't. All grades are PFF, from that category only:
 
Run defense (+33.2): DT Haloti Ngata (+13.8) and LB James Harrison (+10.7) led the way, with DT Barry Cofield (-10) the only weak link. I'm playing Cofield at more of a 3-tech, so he's probably less of a liability there. Solid performance across the board, with guys like S Kenny Vaccaro (+4.8), DE Quinton Coples (+4.6), LB Stephen Tulloch (+4.8), and LB David Harris (+3.6) all positive.
 
Passing (+9.9): I expected this to be the strength of my team, with QB Colin Kaepernick (-0.4), WR Michael Crabtree (+1.3), and WR Hakeem Nicks (-0.7) three of my first four picks. Crabtree's Achilles injury was devastating; even at less than 100%, he helped push Kaepernick to a +6.9 overall grade in the five weeks since his returned. RB Giovani Bernard (+10.6) ended up being the surprise star (I thought he'd be good, but not this good). WR Jason Avant (-5.4) was the weak link; ordinary I'd laugh that off from my fourth WR, but he would have ended up playing a lot with the injuries to Crabtree and WR Jacoby Jones (+2.5). Not a bad performance here, but I hoped to have one of the best passing attacks in the league and it didn't happen.
 
Running (+5.1): Kaepernick (+4.3) and Bernard (+2.7) led the way, with a disappointing year from RB Bernard Pierce (-1.5) behind a terrible Baltimore O-line.
 
Pass Blocking (-0.3): C Peter Konz (-17.2) almost single-handedly killed me in this category, offsetting a fine performance from RT Anthony Davis (+9.8) and competent work from the rest of the squad, including Bernard (+3.1) in blitz pickup. Konz ended up getting partially benched by Atlanta in real life and moved to RG; on my time I would have benched him for backup OL Don Barclay (+3.3), moving LG Kory Lichtensteiger (+1.8) to C.
 
Pass Coverage (-8.5): CB Derek Cox (-14.6) was so bad the Chargers benched him, and CB Stephon Gilmore (-5.9) was hurt to start the year and struggled a bit when he got back (-8.5 overall in his first 5 games; +5.9 since). Some good work from LBs Stephen Tulloch (+9.3) and Bruce Irvin (+3.8) and DBs Corey Graham (+1.2) and Vaccaro (+2.3). Probably would have benched Cox for Graham and dimeback Brandon Harris (-1.0).
 
Pass Rush (-16.6): Things start to get ugly here, dragged down by OLB Whitney Mercilus (-15.7) and DE Quinton Coples (-10.4). Some pretty good work from Cofield (+13.9) and Irvin (+3.4). This is an area where I think my squad might have used these guys to better effect, playing Coples at 4-3 DE instead of 3-4 OLB and letting Irvin rush more (only 122 rush attempts this year with Seattle).
 
Run Block (-49.5): Yikes. Konz (-15.2) again killed me here, and unlike with pass blocking subbing in Barclay (-10.7) doesn't help much. I also drafted two TE with reps as good blockers, but Lance Kendricks (-13.8) and Dion Sims (-11.2) weren't effective. The studs from the 49ers, Davis (-0.4) and RG Alex Boone (+4.3) were just OK, big dropoffs from their 2012 excellence). Only LT Anthony Castonzo (+7.6) was a major positive.
 
I have my record at 9-8, not horrible but probably not a playoff team. The squad is actually probably better off than it has been all season, with Crabtree, Gilmore, Jones, and Coples healthy and Irvin off suspension - I'm down only Vaccaro (on IR) since the start of the season. Next year will be better!
 

Super Nomario

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
Thanks for putting the time in and giving us a rundown SN. How did you figure your record?
Just based on my performance week-to-week. Obviously I might have run into some hot teams and lost a game where I played well too, but the converse is true. I think my record outperforms the overall item above because there were several weeks where everyone laid an egg (week 5, 7, 10, 14) and my highs tended to be lower.
 

mascho

Kane is Able
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Nov 30, 2007
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Year-end Redskins Report
 
Offense Year End
Offense    
Position Player PFF
QB Joe Flacco -13.2
QB2 Kirk Cousins -11.3
RB1 LaRod Stephens-Howling NA
RB2 LeVeon Bell 4.3
RB3 LeGarrett Blount 10.1
TE1 Vernon Davis 8.6
TE2 Niles Paul -4
WR1 Alshon Jeffery 18.7
WR2 DeAndre Hopkins -1.7
WR3 Brandon Gibson 6.6
LT Trent Williams 38.3
LG Wade Smith -10.7
C Fernando Velasco -4.9
RG Barrett Jones NA
RT Gosder Cherilus 12.2

 
Sadly, what could be a very good offense was handcuffed this season by poor QB play.  Perhaps my two best picks of this exercise, Alshon Jeffery (which I thought at the time was a panic move when the WR I wanted, Corradelle Patterson, was picked right before me) and LeGarrett Blount (in the supplemental draft) are on this side of the ball.  With Blount and Bell I have a solid RB tandem, albeit not the tandem I set out with.  Trent Williams and Gosder Cherilus are very solid bookends on a line that will need some help in the interior.  The pieces are in place here for a solid unit, but decisions will need to be made at the QB position.  
 
Defense Year End
Defense    
Position Player PFF
DE1 Greg Hardy 27
DE2 De'Quan Bowers -2.7
DT1 Nick Fairley 5.8
DT2 Sheldon Richardson 30.4
WLB Alec Ogeltree -4.2
MLB DeMeco Ryans -21.4
SLB1 Gerald Hodges NA
SLB2 Jolpo Bartu -1.7
CB1 Greg Toler -3.3
CB2 Kareem Jackson -3.9
CB3 David Amerson -5.5
FS1 Kerry Rhodes NA
FS2 Charles Godfrey -2
SS Major Wright -27.2

 
Do I think this is the best front four in our league?  No.  But it might be close.  Richardson looks to be the guy I thought he was, and him on the inside and Hardy on the outside is a nice combination.  I'd like to think Bowers would put up better numbers with Hardy commanding so much attention.    At the next level, I think Ogeltree and Ryans had better seasons than PFF gives them credit for, and I'd also like to think they would put up better numbers with the front four I have.  While I whiffed on Hodges, thankfully it looks like another rookie SLB, Bartu, might be a player.  Overall, that is a front seven on the younger side that I can go to war with.
 
Sadly, that might not be enough to mask the holes in this secondary.  Down years at the CB spot, one FS that is out of the league, another that got hurt early on, and a SS who got shredded this season in Chicago.  
 
Best Pick:  Tough call between Richardson and Jeffery.  I'd go with Jeffery because there were more question marks surrounding him at the time.  Richardson was a first round pick this year.  In fact, looking back at the draft thread gives me giggles, given my thoughts when I picked him, and later when I named him my "worst pick of the draft."  In short, I am an idiot and don't listen to a word I say.  
Worst Pick:  Hard to live that Flacco selection down.
 
Looking at this roster, it's hard to think this is a playoff team.  In fact, if forced to put a record to this squad, I'd put it at 6-10, maybe 7-9, based on PFF numbers.  This is a passing league and with weakness at QB and in the secondary, it is hard to imagine winning many games.  A run based, play action offense that minimized risk and put the ball in the hands of Davis/Jeffery/Bell/Blount and kept the defense off the field would be our best bet.  If our front four had huge days, we'd win games.  But in the PFF vacuum, this is a team with a .500 ceiling.  
 
Now, on the "eye test," I'd think Flacco would do better in this offense than his PFF numbers gave him credit for, since he'd have his binky in Vernon Davis (remember Flacco was without Pitta most of the season), he'd have a guy that like Boldin would win balls in the air (Jeffery) and a guy who can stretch the field a bit (Hopkins).  Maybe in a non-PFF world this is a better squad?  Tough to say...
 

Phragle

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IDK I think that's a pretty good squad. Flacco is obviously the main problem, and your interior O-line is weak, but you have a good defense and good weapons. The ball is going to have to come out quick, and that's not Flacco's forte, but your weapons can win quick and make contested catches. I think in this exercise Kerry Rhodes has to be one of your starting safeties, and he's a good player.
 
Cousins might actually be better than Flacco, but it's hard to say because Washington is a shit tornado right now. I would know, I have RG3.
 

mascho

Kane is Able
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Yeah, maybe you're right.  It's tough to look at a single team's PFF numbers alone and surmise a record.  I'd have to look at the rest of the NFC east, as well as their other opponents this season, to truly venture a guess.  
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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mascho said:
Yeah, maybe you're right.  It's tough to look at a single team's PFF numbers alone and surmise a record.  I'd have to look at the rest of the NFC east, as well as their other opponents this season, to truly venture a guess.  
 
I think that's what makes really grading these teams so difficult. 
 

RhaegarTharen

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Don't have a ton of time for a more detailed analysis, and I haven't been able to give this the attention I had wanted to throughout the season (taking the CPA exam is a major time suck). So I wasn't able to watch as much of my players as I intended. But here's my YE PFF ratings as well as some off the cuff remarks.

Vikings Offense:
QB1: Carson Palmer: +2.5
QB2: EJ Manuel: -19.8
RB1: Bryce Brown: +1.9
RB2: Michael Bush: -3.6
RB3: Denard Robinson: -4.4
WR1: Mike Williams: -4.5 (INJ)
WR2: Terrance Williams: -0.4
WR3: Dexter McCluster: -0.6
TE: Jared Cook: -4.2
FB: Bruce Miller: +8.0

LT: Chris Hairston: N/A (INJ)
LG: Jeff Allen: -12.0
C: Stefen Wisniewski: +10.4
RG: Kevin Zeitler: +5.7
RT: DJ Fluker: +0.4
T/G: David Quessenberry: N/A


Vikings Defense:
DE: Chris Canty: +7.4
DT: Marcell Dareus: +32.4
DT: Jonathan Hankins: +8.0
DE: Tank Carradine: N/A (INJ)
DL: Margus Hunt: -8.0

DE: Cameron Wake: +27.2
ILB: Brian Cushing: +2.1 (INJ)
ILB: Dont'a Hightower: +5.5
OLB: KJ Wright: +5.2 (INJ)


CB1: Casey Hayward: +1.0 (INJ)
CB2: Alterraun Verner: +9.5
CB3: Jonathan Banks: -9.5
CB4: Leodis McKelvin: +8.6
SS: TJ Ward: +14.5
FS: Chris Conte: -15.8


Vikings Special Teams:
K: Greg Zuerlein: +32.7
P: Brett Kern: +12.5
KR: Dexter McCluster: +6.1


Injuries forced me to radically change my defensive approach. Tank Carradine never suited up for San Francisco, and while Canty was a nice Supplemental pickup, he's not suited at all to play 4-3 DE. So I would likely have played Wake standing up at OLB and played Canty, Hankins, and Dareus on the line. This would have pushed Hightower to ILB, where his run stopping would have been an asset. Even with Cushing's injury (which hurt) I think that core would have been respectable, with each player rating a +10 in one category (DH against the run, Wight in coverage, and Wake rushing). The secondary is hamstrung by an abysmal season from Conte (what happened to the Bears secondary this year? Ugh) and what might be the worst 1st round pick in Hayward. Luckily Verner and McKelvin (another great supplemental pickup) picked up the slack, and Ward's great season would probably have made this one of the better secondaries in the league.

My focus in the draft was on the defensive side of the ball, and it shows. Palmer was a nice supplemental pickup, but PFF hated Manuel. Bryce Brown wasn't able to get much PT behind the league-leading rusher in McCoy, and Williams was hurt before Glennon took over and turned the TB passing attack around somewhat. Robinson was sort of a hail mary pick, and doesnt seem to have panned out. At all. Continuing the trend of solid supplemental pickups, Miller wound up with the highest skill position grade. The left side of my O-Line is a disaster: Hairston was injured in preseason and Quessenberry never saw the field in Houston, leaving LT an unprojectible hole. LG Jeff Allen was terrible. At least I have the foundation of a solid line on the right side. Zeitler started hot and faded down the stretch, but Wisniewski was solid, and Fluker did well for a rookie (4 of his 5 worst games came while filling in at LT - if you break it out he had a -11.4 rating in 4 games starting at LT and a +11.8 rating in 11 games starting at RT, with only 2 games at RT graded in the negative after his rough first outing).

I don't have time to compare the weekly breakdown of my players, or compare to my opponents, but off the cuff I'd equate this team to the 2013 Browns. Tough, talented defense but probably wouldn't be able to put up points consistently enough to win more than a handful of games. Then again I didn't get to watch these guys as much as I'd have liked, and didn't get much of a look at how the other teams shook out. Would love to see what the rest of you think of the team.
 

bsj

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I need to do this at some point.

I love the passing game I have with Luck, Demaryius, and Gordon....but haven't done a critical analysis of the balance of my team, don't have access to these metrics y'all do at this time
 

Dollar

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Same here bsj.  I'm pretty happy with how my team performed, but I don't have access to PFF or anything.  Rivers outperformed any reasonable expectations this season, Golden Tate and Rod Streater would be some good options for him along with Heath Miller, my offensive line was solid, My defensive linemen combined for 28 sacks (led by Jurrell Casey's 10.5 and Jason Hatcher's 11), my linebacker group may have been one of the best in the league (Jerrell Freeman, Perry Riley, Lavonte David), and my CB tandem of Patrick Peterson and DeAngelo Hall isn't too shabby either.  I could see my team as being a solid playoff contender for sure.
 

soxfan121

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Don't have the PFF numbers but I did have Tom Brady, so we won at least 11 games including 3 we had no business pulling out of our ass in the final minutes. 
 

mascho

Kane is Able
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So, who drafted Andy Dalton?  Asking for a friend.
 
/Checks division
 
Wait, the Eagles/Laddie drafted him?  The Redskins play Andy Dalton twice?  I'm adjusting my record from 7-9 to 9-7.
 

CaptainLaddie

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QB - Andy Dalton (4.8)
RB - Arian Foster (5.6), Zac Stacy (3.1), Leon Washington (-0.4)
WR - Donario Alexander (no snaps, injured), AJ Jenkins (-2.2), Davone Bess (-11.5), Kenbrell Thompkins (-0.1), Ryan Spadola (-0.5)
TE - Vance McDonald (-6.1), Martellus Bennett (1.7)
OL - Jason Peters (30.0), TJ Lang (11.0), Brian de la Puente (4.0), Hugh Thornton (-15.3), Demar Dotson (23.0)
DL - Derrick Morgan (11.6), Brian Robison (7.0), Kevin Williams (7.3), Mike Martin (3.7)
LB - Jonathan Casillas (0.0), Akeem Dent (-10.5), Man'ti Teo (-7.4), Jon Bostic (-17.2), Jarvis Jones (-3.9), Jelani Jenkins (-0.7)
CB - Chris Harris (10.9), Robert McClain (-1.4), Jamar Taylor (-1.3)
S - Adrian Wilson (no snaps, injured), JJ Wilcox (-2.7)
K - Stephen Gostkowski (46.0)
P - Shawn Powell (3.7)
 
Comically bad at LB and WR.
Very good on the OL/DL.
Decent RB corps.
Could use some help in the secondary.
 
Andy Dalton is probably not the answer but he's better than what we have right now.
 
I suspect this would be a 5-11 team, with the strength of the oline keeping Dalton upright lucking into a few wins along blocking for Stacy and Foster.  Add in the defensive line, and yeah, sure, 4 or 5 wins is probably it.

Of course, not having a second safety kind of sucks.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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The 2013 RFP New England Patriots
 
Defensive line - JJ Watt: Best defensive player in the league.
                          Datone Jones: Handful of sacks for the first year guy, showed some versatility but needs to work on his overall game. Pass rush looks good.
                          Michael Brockers: Improved pass rush needs to work on the run.
                          Kwame Geathers: Looked good but got hurt.
 
Linebackers - Luke Kuechly: Top tier MLB in the league
                       Mychal Kendricks: Impressive playmaker but needs to work on his instincts. Makes up for it with athleticism.
                       Danny Trevathan: Amazing coverage linebacker. Sideline to sideline ability.
                       Akeem Ayers: Ankle injuries made for a down year. Not much production.
                       Bjoern Werner: Struggled transitioning to OLB. Might have been better off left as a DE.
 
Corner backs - DRC: Looked every bit like a #1 corner until he got hurt.
                         Josh Robinson: Started the year off slow but came on later. Great #2 or slot corner.
                         Logan Ryan: The real life Pats may have a future playmaker here. This kid has great instincts.
                         Jamell Fleming: Didn't play a game in 2013
 
Safeties - Harrison Smith: Having a very productive season before he got injured.
                TJ McDonald: Decent numbers for a rookie in an injury shortened year 
 
Punter - Ryan Motherfuckin Allen: Pretty damn good year for the rook. Would have won me quite a few field position battles.
 
Taking injuries into account for my entire division I think I would've squeaked out at the top. Reds Jets D and El Cabs Fins D both are pretty impressive but neither of their offenses are close to mine. Titos Bills weren't bad offensively but the D wasn't up to par for the division. In real life this would've been a very tough division to compete against. I'd say 10-6 and a playoff berth for my Pats. 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
My Offensive skill players:
 
QB - Nick Foles - finally threw his first INT of the year :( , but he's looked like a top starter in Chip Kelly's offense.
 
RB - Eddie Lacy - Solid workhorse. He's been exactly what I hoped he'd be.
RB - LaMichael James - Stuck in SF behind some really talented RB's. He would be the perfect compliment to Lacy.
 
FB - Hynoski - Hurt n/a
 
WR - Torrey Smith - Has shown more route running this year and looks like a true #1 WR.
WR - Tavon Austin - Up and down year, but he's an absolute homerun hitter. An all-around weapon; rushing, receiving and ST's.
WR - Da'rick Rogers - Just when I thought he was an afterthought, Indy finally sets him lose. Luck to Rogers should be heard a lot the rest of the year. Would compliment Smith well.
WR - Marvin Jones - Disappeared in a few games but would be a fantastic compliment to my other receivers. 4-wide up-tempo? Good luck.
 
TE - Ladarius Green - Showed up for some big plays in 3 out of the last 4 games. Would be a solid starter out of Gates' shadow.
 
K - Justin Tucker - Best K in the league this year
 
For a team that focused on Defense, I couldn't be happier with the way my offense came together. While my o-line isn't fantastic, I think they'd be serviceable with this crew.
 
Just to put together with the D
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
Just to put together with the D
 
Admittedly I wasn't a big fan of this team before the year started. They far exceeded my expectations, Foles being a major reason why, and if health hadn't been an issue probably could have made a run at the title (not sure that depleted secondary could stop the top tier QBs come playoff time). 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
 
Admittedly I wasn't a big fan of this team before the year started. They far exceeded my expectations, Foles being a major reason why, and if health hadn't been an issue probably could have made a run at the title (not sure that depleted secondary could stop the top tier QBs come playoff time). 
 
Thanks and I agree. This team might make it out of the WC round but there's not enough depth with injuries to really contend. Still, I'll take it.
 

bakahump

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I dont have a PFF membership. Can anyone help me out?  I am thinking the Chiefs may be in line for the #1 pick.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Season in review for the Elcab Dolphins:
 
QB- Christian Ponder (-10.8), Matt Barkley (-12.1 in 3 games)
My QB situation is obviously priority #1 heading into the offseason. I missed out on all of the top QB's in the draft and paid for it. 
 
HB- Trent Richardson (-3.7), Chris Ivory (-1.7)
Richardson, in round 3, was easily my worst pick. Just a brutal season. Ivory wasn't much better, but did have some strong games at the end of the season.
 
WR- Keenan Allen (17.0), Muhammad Sanu (-3.8), Andrew Hawkins (1.6 in 8 games), TJ Graham (-8.9)
Keenan Allen emerged as potential #1 WR and would've been Ponder's go-to guy on my squad. Hawkins shows some promise as a slot receiver, but WR is another work in progress. 
 
TE- Jordan Cameron (-6.0), Dwayne Allen (0.0, IR after week 1, caught 1 pass for a TD)
Jordan Cameron got off to a great start but faded late, but he showed he can be a weapon as a receiving TE. I think he pairs up well with Dwayne Allen next year. 
 
OL- Ryan Clady (-1.0, IR after week 3), Larry Warford (22.8), Mike Pouncey (7.1), Travis Frederick (13.2), Zach Strief 26.5, Brandon Brooks 13.8
I was very happy to see how well my OL played, highlighted by 2 rookies (Warford and Frederick) and a 21st round pick (Strief) doing the heavy lifting.
 
DL- Michael Johnson (25.9), Star Lotulelei (15.1), Cameron Heyward (11.3), Devon Still (-0.9 only played 132 snaps), Cam Thomas (-1.2)
Running a 3-4, I'd be happy to run out this starting 3 every week. All 3 grade out positively vs. the run and can still get some pressure on the QB (15 sacks combined)
 
LB- Clay Matthews (1.2), Karlos Dansby (13.3), Donald Butler (-11.8), Parys Haralson (2.5), Victor Butler (IR)
Matthews had a disappointing season but still managed 8 sacks. Dansby (8 sacks) brought stability to the middle of the field while Butler really struggled (esp. in coverage). Haralson was a supplemental pick and helped with 4 sacks filling in for the injured V. Butler who I lost before the season.  (21 sacks as a unit)
 
CB- Dee Milliner (-2.6), Alfonzo Dennard (-2.8), Brandon Boykin (9.1)
Milliner had a brutal start to his career, but actually played much better down the stretch, finishing with 3 INT. Dennard has had a frustrating sophomore campaign but Boykin (round 30) stepped up as a strong slot cover corner, finishing with 6 INT and 14th overall CB ranking according to PFF. Not great overall, but a promising group for '14.  
 
S- Reggie Nelson (4.2), DJ Swearinger (-7.1)
Nelson had a solid season, although nothing special. Swearinger struggled as a rookie, particularly in coverage.

K- Connor Barth (IR)
P- Pat McAfee (32.4)- Solid season (#3 ranked P on PFF). Helps with field position about as well as Christian Ponder hurts it. 
 
 
I'm not sure what that gets you for a record. Really only 2 playmakers on offense (Allen and Cameron), with poor QB/HB situations. But I've got an offensive line that can really block, so if you have a weak DL, I might be able to beat you in the trenches.  Defensively, again I'm strong on the line, had a couple of good LBs, and a young secondary with a great slot cover guy. 

I'd say 4 or 5 wins would be about the max with Ponder running the show. And if you guys think that number would be 0, fine by me. The Dolphins clearly need some Johnny Football. 
 
 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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It's essentially the offseason for us Pats fans so what are we doing with this. I'm looking forward to getting some new players on my team and getting rid of some excess baggage. I want to know what everyone wants to do from here, especially when it comes to the draft.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The end of season stuff didn't come off but I see no reason not to proceed with the original plans as far as drafting more players in the offseason. The big questions are really how we determine the draft order and when we want to do it. I think there something to be said for starting in April - after the height of the FA season but before the real NFL draft.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I think the teams at the end of the draft clearly got fucking screwed in the draft this past year. I say we just reverse draft order.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
I think the teams at the end of the draft clearly got fucking screwed in the draft this past year. I say we just reverse draft order.
 
Unless someone is willing to do a Madden simulation, I don't really see any other way of doing it. 

With the NFL being such a QB driven league, guys in the last half to quarter of the first round were at a pretty big disadvantage. I mean, when Matt Schaub is being taken early in the 2nd round, you know there's a problem.  

And a team with a Peyton or Brady shouldn't be able to go grab a Bridgewater/Bortles/Manziel for the future before guys who had to choose from the likes of Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman and Christian Ponder.  
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I'm sympathetic to this argument but its not clear to me (admittedly there's some self-interest here) that the teams at the very end of the draft got screwed any more than teams in the middle of the draft, who also had no chance to get a clear cut franchise QB.

If we're going to keep up with the league going forward, I also think we need some kind of longer term plan for the draft order beyond just reversing the order every year, as that again hurts the teams in the middle who will never have a chance at top talent. And just figuring it out later seems kind of stupid as anything we can figure out later we can probably figure out now.
 

Super Nomario

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I'm sympathetic to this argument but its not clear to me (admittedly there's some self-interest here) that the teams at the very end of the draft got screwed any more than teams in the middle of the draft, who also had no chance to get a clear cut franchise QB.

If we're going to keep up with the league going forward, I also think we need some kind of longer term plan for the draft order beyond just reversing the order every year, as that again hurts the teams in the middle who will never have a chance at top talent. And just figuring it out later seems kind of stupid as anything we can figure out later we can probably figure out now.
We could do a wheel system like the NBA is considering:

That way everyone would get shots at the beginning, end, and middle of the draft, even over a relatively short period of time.
 
Another option is to have a brief nomination and voting cycle where we pick the 8 or 10 worst teams and then just randomize or reverse order for everybody else. Ranking all 32 teams seems too much, but we could certainly do a top (or bottom) 8-10. ELO rating everybody is another possibility.
 
For this upcoming draft, I think just reversing order is fairest.
 

mascho

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I'd like to think we have enough brain power to have a brief nomination/voting cycle for maybe the 5 worst and 5 best teams, and then randomize the rest in the middle.  What else are we gonna do, argue over Richard Sherman?  
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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DanoooME said:
I have PFF numbers for the NFC West; just need to put them in a legible Excel format so I can tableize them.  Maybe tonight.
 
Please do. 
 
I was thinking we could do a vote on each Division. That'd at least get us to the point where we know most of the playoff teams and the worst teams in the league. Might be able to narrow it down from there. 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
 
Please do. 
 
I was thinking we could do a vote on each Division. That'd at least get us to the point where we know most of the playoff teams and the worst teams in the league. Might be able to narrow it down from there. 
Probably the best way to do it.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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One other option would be something like the NBA draft lottery, in which we had a randomized order but the teams at the end of the previous order got more "ping pong balls." Like 32 chances for the last team, 31 for second to last, etc until you only had 1 chance for OFT (sorry OFT). Probably not that difficult to do with Excel. Then we could rinse and repeat each year with the ping pong balls determined by the previous year's draft order.

In any of these scenarios, I'm assuming that we're doing a snake draft as well in order to balance the luck out a bit more.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
One other option would be something like the NBA draft lottery, in which we had a randomized order but the teams at the end of the previous order got more "ping pong balls." Like 32 chances for the last team, 31 for second to last, etc until you only had 1 chance for OFT (sorry OFT). Probably not that difficult to do with Excel. Then we could rinse and repeat each year with the ping pong balls determined by the previous year's draft order.

In any of these scenarios, I'm assuming that we're doing a snake draft as well in order to balance the luck out a bit more.
 
If we do anything from the NBA, I like the wheel idea. Everyone find where you drafted last year, and go to the next number on the wheel to see your pick.
 
I reserve the right to change my mind if this doesn't benefit me.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
If we do anything from the NBA, I like the wheel idea. Everyone find where you drafted last year, and go to the next number on the wheel to see your pick.
 
I reserve the right to change my mind if this doesn't benefit me.
What I don't like about the wheel is that its designed to equalize outcomes over a really long time horizon but in our case who knows whether this things lasts longer than 3-4 years.
 

SMU_Sox

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Well if we go by PFF KFP and I did pretty well. 
 
Defense: 
 
Front 4:
DT: Kyle D WIlliams: +37.3
DT: Glenn Dorsey: +9.8
DE: Carlos Dunlap: +15.6
DE: Charles Johnson: +5.0
Backup DE: David Bass Jr: -7.9
 
LBs:
MLB: Patrick Willis: +22.9
WLB: Arthur Brown: -0.4
SLB: Manny Lawson: +4.4
 
DBs:
CB1: LD Webb: +7.3
CB2: Xavier Rhodes: +1.5
CB3: Richard Marshall: -11.3. Note that he would be our slot guy and largely not been exposed as he was on SD. 
 
FS: Chris D. Clemons: +4.1
SS: Tashaun Gipson -6.9
Backup SS: John Cyprien: -17.5 Note - as a backup he's not getting enough snaps in coverage to be this bad. I'm taking backup stats and reducing them by 80%.
 
Defensive PFF Grade: +91.0  I took 40% of Marshall's value, 20% of Bass's and 20% of Cypriens. They aren't starters on our squad anyway.
 
Offensive:
 
The Line: 
LT: Michael Roos: +22
LG: Jon Asamoah: +6.6
C: Gino Gradkowski: -18.1
RG: Chad Rinehardt: +1.6
RT: Cordy Glenn: +23
 
WRs:
Dwayne Bowe: +9.6
Greg Jennings: +5.4
Aldrick Robinson: +0.4
Ryan Swope: His brain is mush. IR for Life.
 
TE:
Jacob Tamme: +6.9
Travis Kelce: IR
 
RB:
Knowshon Moreno: +8.3
DeMarco Murray: +15.5
 
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick: +0.4
 
Offense Total: 81.6
 
Special Teams:
 
Bryan Anger: +8.7
Robbie Gould: +15.2
 
Special Teams total: 23.9
 
10% ST + Offense + Defense = 175.0.
 

Phragle

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I want to know how things in real life is supposed to affect things in this exercise if at all. A teams success is highly tied to the QB success and mine is a disaster in real life. However in this exercise I think he's okay. The Redskins are ruining RG3, not us. Every decision they've made so far since they drafted him has be exactly opposite of what they should have done.
 
mascho said:
I'd like to think we have enough brain power to have a brief nomination/voting cycle for maybe the 5 worst and 5 best teams, and then randomize the rest in the middle.  What else are we gonna do, argue over Richard Sherman?  
 
Yeah with all the work done so far it'd be stupid to mess it all up now.
 
DanoooME said:
I have PFF numbers for the NFC West; just need to put them in a legible Excel format so I can tableize them.  Maybe tonight.
 
Make sure you multiply the QB position by about ten. Without proper positional value a PFF total is literally useless.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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What if we put the 12 teams with the lowest PFF score for the season in a bracket style tournament to determine who gets the #1 pick? The worst PFF score gets the #1 seed and so on. The teams with the 4 lowest PFF scores automatically get a first round bye. We then vote on who we think would win head to head, with the weaker team moving on to the next round. The team standing at the end gets the top pick. 
 
This would allow us to use PFF to initially rank our teams while also giving us a chance to share our thoughts on which teams deserve the top picks.  Just an idea. 
 
I agree with phragle though that there should be some sort of weighting system on these PFF scores. Having a bad QB shouldn't be balanced out because you've got a good kicker or punter. 
 
 

mascho

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phragle said:
I want to know how things in real life is supposed to affect things in this exercise if at all. A teams success is highly tied to the QB success and mine is a disaster in real life. However in this exercise I think he's okay. The Redskins are ruining RG3, not us. Every decision they've made so far since they drafted him has be exactly opposite of what they should have done.
 
 
Yeah with all the work done so far it'd be stupid to mess it all up now.
 
 
Make sure you multiply the QB position by about ten. Without proper positional value a PFF total is literally useless.
 
 
ElcaballitoMVP said:
 
What if we put the 12 teams with the lowest PFF score for the season in a bracket style tournament to determine who gets the #1 pick? The worst PFF score gets the #1 seed and so on. The teams with the 4 lowest PFF scores automatically get a first round bye. We then vote on who we think would win head to head, with the weaker team moving on to the next round. The team standing at the end gets the top pick. 
 
This would allow us to use PFF to initially rank our teams while also giving us a chance to share our thoughts on which teams deserve the top picks.  Just an idea. 
 
I agree with phragle though that there should be some sort of weighting system on these PFF scores. Having a bad QB shouldn't be balanced out because you've got a good kicker or punter. 
 
 
 
I'll listen to all offers for the #1 overall pick.
 
/Guy who drafted Flacco
 

Phragle

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ElcaballitoMVP said:
 
What if we put the 12 teams with the lowest PFF score for the season in a bracket style tournament to determine who gets the #1 pick? The worst PFF score gets the #1 seed and so on. The teams with the 4 lowest PFF scores automatically get a first round bye. We then vote on who we think would win head to head, with the weaker team moving on to the next round. The team standing at the end gets the top pick. 
 
This would allow us to use PFF to initially rank our teams while also giving us a chance to share our thoughts on which teams deserve the top picks.  Just an idea. 
 
I agree with phragle though that there should be some sort of weighting system on these PFF scores. Having a bad QB shouldn't be balanced out because you've got a good kicker or punter. 
 
 
 
I'm a little worried people are putting too much faith in PFF numbers. It's not much different than UZR.
 
How about QB times 10 and punter and kicker divided by 10?
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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As I see it, there's basically two kinds of options here:

(a) Performance based rankings, a la PFF numbers. I'm definitely willing to hear all suggestions about this but my suspicion is that its going to be a pain in the ass and that the final numbers aren't going to necessarily pass the smell test in terms of really distinguishing which are the better teams. You have the issue of weighting positions but also the issue that those PFF grades may be a load of crap to begin with.

(b) Some kind of rotation system that is essentially independent of team performance. Personally, I like the NBA draft lottery system or some variant as it gives everybody a chance at drafting high but also favors the teams that drafted lower the previous year.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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phragle said:
I'm a little worried people are putting too much faith in PFF numbers. It's not much different than UZR.
 
How about QB times 10 and punter and kicker divided by 10?
Not only do the PFF numbers not weight by importance of positions but they have puzzling and pretty inexplicable differences between positions in terms of the range of values - for example, there are no ILB, CB, or S with grades over 20...yet there are 15 tackles and 10 DTs with grades over 20. Or the fact that JJ Watt has an overall grade of 112 and Richard Sherman has an overall grade of 12.
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
As I see it, there's basically two kinds of options here:

(a) Performance based rankings, a la PFF numbers. I'm definitely willing to hear all suggestions about this but my suspicion is that its going to be a pain in the ass and that the final numbers aren't going to necessarily pass the smell test in terms of really distinguishing which are the better teams. You have the issue of weighting positions but also the issue that those PFF grades may be a load of crap to begin with.

(b) Some kind of rotation system that is essentially independent of team performance. Personally, I like the NBA draft lottery system or some variant as it gives everybody a chance at drafting high but also favors the teams that drafted lower the previous year.
 
(c) Voting system (Divisions). People can put all their PFF numbers in their and say whatever the hell they want to give their case. Phragle can try to convince us RG3 would be taking Horse Steroids and he's twice as good as his was last year. We are the jury and we decide how we think he would have fared. It would lead to a good discussion between the teams and divisions. Also the voting would give us a pretty good ranking system. This could also lead to us actually deciding a winner, which I think we'd all still love at this point.
 
I was in the middle of the draft and pretty much the cut off point between the good QBs and the shitty ones (Cam->Eli is a pretty big dropoff). I think we should incorporate how good our teams actually were this year, though I'm still going to fight and claw for a better team and higher ranking rather than a better draft pick. 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Not only do the PFF numbers not weight by importance of positions but they have puzzling and pretty inexplicable differences between positions in terms of the range of values - for example, there are no ILB, CB, or S with grades over 20...yet there are 15 tackles and 10 DTs with grades over 20. Or the fact that JJ Watt has an overall grade of 112 and Richard Sherman has an overall grade of 12.
 
Even though this benefits me greatly, I have to agree that using PFF numbers really doesn't tell the whole story. It's pretty cool that according to them Watt is more valuable then some teams but in this exercise that's absolutely ridiculous.
 

SMU_Sox

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QB multiplied by 10? That's a crazy multiplier. 2 or 3 maybe. But 10? That's, imho, grossly inappropriate. You might as well make it exponential at that point....
 

SMU_Sox

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PFF tells you a rough estimate of how well a guy played with a ton of caveats. It's a barometer. It doesn't adjust for opponents and it has a ton of other flaws in the methodology. I think it can tell you roughly where a guy ranks among his peers but beyond that it is not useful.
 

Phragle

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mascho said:
I'll listen to all offers for the #1 overall pick.
 
/Guy who drafted Flacco
 
I'd love to smash Flacco here but I think you're team is better than mine. In all likelihood we shut down RG3 a few weeks in and decided to tank. He obviously wasn't healthy.
 
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
As I see it, there's basically two kinds of options here:

(a) Performance based rankings, a la PFF numbers. I'm definitely willing to hear all suggestions about this but my suspicion is that its going to be a pain in the ass and that the final numbers aren't going to necessarily pass the smell test in terms of really distinguishing which are the better teams. You have the issue of weighting positions but also the issue that those PFF grades may be a load of crap to begin with.

(b) Some kind of rotation system that is essentially independent of team performance. Personally, I like the NBA draft lottery system or some variant as it gives everybody a chance at drafting high but also favors the teams that drafted lower the previous year.
 
I think we're capable enough to put depth charts together and decide who belongs where. PFF rankings should be useful enough to help decide arguments if they're weighting decently.
 
The lottery system seems good to me but not the circle idea.
 
Also my bad for hyping everyone up on the Madden idea. It was just way too much time to commit to. It would have taken weeks.
 
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Not only do the PFF numbers not weight by importance of positions but they have puzzling and pretty inexplicable differences between positions in terms of the range of values - for example, there are no ILB, CB, or S with grades over 20...yet there are 15 tackles and 10 DTs with grades over 20. Or the fact that JJ Watt has an overall grade of 112 and Richard Sherman has an overall grade of 12.
 
Yeah I can't explain that either.
 
DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
 
(c) Voting system (Divisions). People can put all their PFF numbers in their and say whatever the hell they want to give their case. Phragle can try to convince us RG3 would be taking Horse Steroids and he's twice as good as his was last year. We are the jury and we decide how we think he would have fared. It would lead to a good discussion between the teams and divisions. Also the voting would give us a pretty good ranking system. This could also lead to us actually deciding a winner, which I think we'd all still love at this point.
 
I was in the middle of the draft and pretty much the cut off point between the good QBs and the shitty ones (Cam->Eli is a pretty big dropoff). I think we should incorporate how good our teams actually were this year, though I'm still going to fight and claw for a better team and higher ranking rather than a better draft pick. 
 
This is the only part of the whole process where we can't screw around.
 
SMU_Sox said:
QB multiplied by 10? That's a crazy multiplier. 2 or 3 maybe. But 10? That's, imho, grossly inappropriate. You might as well make it exponential at that point....
 
You've go to be kidding me. You're obviously very biased. Quarterbacks are everything. That's why Brady can lead a marginal team to the AFCCG and teams draft Weeden is the first round. Times 10 might actually not be high enough.
 
Don't drag this down because you have a bad QB. Have some respect for the exercise and everyone that put time into this.