RealFantasy Pigskin - Progress Report

JerBear

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My secondary is...not great.  The rest is better than I thought.  A lot of season ending injuries.
 
Phragle, if you can put the numbers into a spreadsheet (either Google or Excel) I can get it formatted for the forum.
 

soxfan121

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Hey, if someone with a PFF account could look up the grades on the following guys (who do not, to my bleary eyes, show up on the images posted up thread), I'd be thankful:
 
Levine Toilolo, TE (Atlanta)
James Casey, TE/FB (Philly)
Rick Wagner, OL (Baltimore)
 
Devonte Holloman, LB (Dallas)
Champ Bailey, CB (Denver)
 
All were used sparingly and may not have had the requisite number of snaps to qualify for that "leaderboard". 
 
EDIT: If I used the same methodology as Laddie above, I get a 100.1 total (68 on offense) without ST and 126.5 with ST (and no punter - how much am I deducting for no punter? Because Brady punted once for a 0.0 grade and I'll take that over a penalty)
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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soxfan121 said:
Hey, if someone with a PFF account could look up the grades on the following guys (who do not, to my bleary eyes, show up on the images posted up thread), I'd be thankful:
 
Levine Toilolo, TE (Atlanta): -2.7
James Casey, TE/FB (Philly): 3.0
Rick Wagner, OL (Baltimore): 1.0
 
Devonte Holloman, LB (Dallas): -13.0 (holy shit PFF hated his last 3 weeks: -4.4, -3.3, -5.1)
Champ Bailey, CB (Denver): -2.7
 
All were used sparingly and may not have had the requisite number of snaps to qualify for that "leaderboard". 
 
EDIT: If I used the same methodology as Laddie above, I get a 100.1 total (68 on offense) without ST and 126.5 with ST (and no punter - how much am I deducting for no punter? Because Brady punted once for a 0.0 grade and I'll take that over a penalty)
 
Here ya go. 
 

soxfan121

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Thanks ElCab - wow, that last minute effort by Holloman really knocked things down on defense. 
 
Final Offense = 69.3 (we're really good)
Final Defense = 16.4 (no, not really)
Final w/ ST = 112.1
Final w/o ST = 85.7
 
Apparently, I would have won Laddie's division by a considerable margin.
 

mascho

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soxfan121 said:
Thanks ElCab - wow, that last minute effort by Holloman really knocked things down on defense. 
 
Final Offense = 69.3 (we're really good)
Final Defense = 16.4 (no, not really)
Final w/ ST = 112.1
Final w/o ST = 85.7
 
Apparently, I would have won Laddie's division by a considerable margin.
Yep. Art imitates life with respect to the NFC East.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
I'm finding it very difficult to take these PFF numbers seriously...
 
As you should. They aren't perfect.  
 
In fact, when we break down the divisions, I think it would be wise for each team to include traditional statistics (TDs, INTs, Fumbles, Sacks, Tackles, etc) to help supplement the PFF numbers in order to give everyone a more complete picture of how your team performed throughout the season.  If you've got a pro bowler or an all-pro on your squad, call it out. If your WR was the league leader in receptions, include it. 
 
PFF isn't perfect, but it's a relatively unbiased way of evaluating a player's overall impact in all facets of the game. But it's just one way to evaluate our players, not the only way. 

And don't get mad at PFF just because they think your team stinks. 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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ElcaballitoMVP said:
 
As you should. They aren't perfect.  
 
In fact, when we break down the divisions, I think it would be wise for each team to include traditional statistics (TDs, INTs, Fumbles, Sacks, Tackles, etc) to help supplement the PFF numbers in order to give everyone a more complete picture of how your team performed throughout the season.  If you've got a pro bowler or an all-pro on your squad, call it out. If your WR was the league leader in receptions, include it. 
 
PFF isn't perfect, but it's a relatively unbiased way of evaluating a player's overall impact in all facets of the game. But it's just one way to evaluate our players, not the only way. 
And don't get mad at PFF just because they think your team stinks. 
 
It's funny actually, they have it as rather mediocre which I think is worse.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Looking over my team, I'm not as down on them as I was a few weeks ago -- outside of the WRs and LBs, it's actually decent.  Dalton's not terrible and the two lines were excellent.  Add in a decent RB group, a #1 CB and a top kicker and things aren't that bad.
 

mascho

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CaptainLaddie said:
Looking over my team, I'm not as down on them as I was a few weeks ago -- outside of the WRs and LBs, it's actually decent.  Dalton's not terrible and the two lines were excellent.  Add in a decent RB group, a #1 CB and a top kicker and things aren't that bad.
 
You've probably got the best OL in the division.  If/when our teams played the battle between your OL and my DL would be epic.  
 

Myt1

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ElcaballitoMVP said:
As you should. They aren't perfect.  
 
In fact, when we break down the divisions, I think it would be wise for each team to include traditional statistics (TDs, INTs, Fumbles, Sacks, Tackles, etc) to help supplement the PFF numbers in order to give everyone a more complete picture of how your team performed throughout the season.  If you've got a pro bowler or an all-pro on your squad, call it out. If your WR was the league leader in receptions, include it. 
 
PFF isn't perfect, but it's a relatively unbiased way of evaluating a player's overall impact in all facets of the game. But it's just one way to evaluate our players, not the only way. 
And don't get mad at PFF just because they think your team stinks. 
Rolling two ten sided dice is a completely unbiased way of evaluating a player's overall impact. It's still awful.

Maybe it's a misprint, but does PFF really have Forte at 8.9 and Jaquizz Rodgers at 8.8?
 

Super Nomario

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Myt1 said:
Rolling two ten sided dice is a completely unbiased way of evaluating a player's overall impact. It's still awful.

Maybe it's a misprint, but does PFF really have Forte at 8.9 and Jaquizz Rodgers at 8.8?
Yes. They grade Forte is the worst pass-blocking RB in football at -5.5 (while Rodgers is +2.5). Forte is better at everything else per their numbers. Since only two RBs in the entire NFL were asked to pass-block more, it's hard to imagine Forte's really as bad as they say.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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It's like they're pulling numbers straight out of their ass. I've got Zuttah with a shit grade even though he didn't give up a sack. Torrey Smith a 1,000 yard receiver with a 1.5. Mychal Kendricks a frickin Pro-Bowler with a -10.0... I think they're full of shit.
 

Myt1

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I'm quoting John McClain in what was supposed to be a response to the absurd comparison between my RBs based on pass blocking.
 

Myt1

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To be fair, he was. We'd still be better off setting values by throwing lawn darts.
 

soxfan121

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
 
To be fair, he was really fucking awesome after coming back from injury.
 
To be fair, if my team sucked by the PFF numbers I'd also be claiming they're bullshit. 
 
But since my team seems to be pretty good by the PFF numbers, I'm gonna say that the time to register complaints about the PFF grade being part of the evaluation process was a long time ago and smokescreens to the contrary are poor form. 
 
WHERE'S MY +25% BRADY BONUS!?!?!
 

JerBear

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AFC South.  Numbers compiled by Phragle
 
Totals
[tablegrid= AFC South Totals ]Pos Texans Jaguars Tactlenecks Colts O Total 42.4 86.9 17.7 9.4 D Total 60.3 20 56 -50.8 ST/Supp Total 19.9 67.1 38.7 39.9 Total 112.6 174 112.4 -1.5 W Total 185.7 504.7 20.42 -148 [/tablegrid]
 
Breakdowns in following posts to prevent post nonsense per SSF.
 

soxfan121

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What is W Total and do we all just want to skip voting and give Turrable the title  right now?
 

JerBear

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Offense:
[tablegrid= AFC South Offense ]Pos  Texans  Rat  Jaguars  Rat  Tactlenecks  Rat  Colts  Rat  QB1 Matt Ryan 10 Peyton Manning 43.3 RGIII -6.4 Josh Freeman -13 RB1 Frank Gore 12.1 Stevan Ridley 4.8 Shane Vereen 7.5 Chris Johnson 3.1 RB2 Marcus Lattimore NA Joique Bell 15.1 Christine Michael 1 Ronnie Hilman 0.7 FB Michael Robinson 0.6 Orson Charles -0.8 Brian Quick 1.7 Brad Smith NA TE Jermicael Finley -2.8 Owen Daniels -0.4 Zach Miller 7.4 Tony Scheffler -1.9 WR1 Brandon Lloyd NA Andre Johnson 19.8 Percy Harvin 0.7 Roddy White -3 WR2 Anquan Boldin 17.9 Justin Blackmon 0.7 Quinton Patton -0.3 Andre Roberts -1.3 WR3 Josh Cribbs 0.2 Brian Hartline 12.7 Leonard Hank. -0.9 Julian Edelman 8.9 LT Branden Albert 10 Bryant McKinnie -20.7 Lane Johnson 0.2 Jake Long 25.8 LG Ben Jones -2.5 Justin Blalock 6.8 Ben Grubbs 13.9 Richie Incognito 6.8 C Nick Mangold -0.2 Eric Wood -5.1 Daniel Kilgore 1.4 Nick Hardwick 8.8 RG John Jerry -2.9 Marshal Yanda 10.7 Clint Boling 5.9 Dan Connolly -12.9 RT Reid Fragel NA Brennan Williams NA Sam Baker -14.4 Michael Oher -12.6 [/tablegrid] 
 

JerBear

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Defense
[tablegrid= AFC South Defense ]Pos  Texans  Rat  Jaguars  Rat  Tactlenecks  Rat  Colts  Rat  DE1 Kamerion Wimbley -4.9 Elvis Dumervil 27.4 Calais Campbell 41.7 Jason Pierre-Paul 2.7 DE2 Robert Mathis 31.4 Shaun Phillips 6.6 Shea McClellin -28.4 Everson Griffen 4.7 DT1 Linval Joseph 9.9 Randy Starks 28.8 Fletcher Cox 14.8 Tyson Alualu -15.4 DT2 Paul Soliai 11.1 Kendall Langford 2.6 Dan Williams 8.4 Dwan Edwards 0.7 ILB1 Derrick Johnson 15.4 Curtis Lofton -7.2 Sean Lee 8.7 Jo-Lon Dunbar -9.5 ILB2 Brian Urlacher NA London Fletcher -28.4 Desmond Bishop 1 Nick Barnett -1.7 OLB1 Zach Brown -3.9 Wesley Woodyard -5.8 Jamie Collins 2.3 Craig Robertson -18.1 OLB2 Chase Thomas NA Sean Porter NA Jason Worilds 9.5 Larry Foote -3.1 CB1 Brandon Browner 2.8 Tim Jennings -0.1 Sam Shields 0.4 Joe Haden 8.4 CB2 Stanford Routt NA Asante Samuel -0.2 Chris Culliver NA Aqib Talib -0.3 CB3 Ras-I Dowling NA Coty Sensabaugh 0.8 Davon House -2.6 Buster Skrine -13 FS Dwight Lowery -1.6 Thomas DeCoud -16 Rahim Moore 0.2 Malcom Jenkins -6 SS Tyvon Branch 0.1 Donte Whitner 11.5 Phillip Thomas NA Kurt Coleman -0.2 [/tablegrid]
 

JerBear

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Suplemental/Special Teams/ Totals
[tablegrid= AFC South Other Stuff ]Pos  Texans  Rat  Jaguars  Rat  Tactlenecks  Rat  Colts  Rat  SUP Nick Toon -4.2 Lamar Holmes -32.3 Charles Woodson 1.8 Matthew Slater -0.7 SUP Greg Salas -0.7 Ron Brooks -2.8 William Gay 11.1 BJ Coleman NA SUP Brandon Ghee 4.9 Damon Harrison 34.8 Taylor Thompson 1.4 Khiry Robinson -0.4 SUP Michael Hooman -11.2 Kion Wilson -2.1 Tyrod Taylor 0.2 Mike James 7 SUP Jeff Demps 1.2 Jermaine Kearse 3.9 AQ Shipley -14 Jaron Brown 1.1                   K Josh Scobee 25 Blair Walsh 29.5 Adam Vinatieri 13 Ryan Succop 22.5 P Tim Masthay 4.9 Thomas Morstead 36.1 Matt Bosher 25.2 Kevin Huber 10.4                  [/tablegrid]
 

JerBear

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soxfan121 said:
What is W Total and do we all just want to skip voting and give Turrable the title  right now?
I think its a weighted total using some multipliers that Phragle came up with.  I didn't get the math, only the results.  I totaled the O and D based on original drafts as I didn't take the time to plug in supplementals when required.
 

soxfan121

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JerBear said:
I think its a weighted total using some multipliers that Phragle came up with.  I didn't get the math, only the results.  I totaled the O and D based on original drafts as I didn't take the time to plug in supplementals when required.
 
Oh, the Brady Bonus. In that case, I retract my endorsement of Turrable. 
 
Remember, in this game Brady HAD competent WR. I win.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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soxfan121 said:
 
To be fair, if my team sucked by the PFF numbers I'd also be claiming they're bullshit. 
 
But since my team seems to be pretty good by the PFF numbers, I'm gonna say that the time to register complaints about the PFF grade being part of the evaluation process was a long time ago and smokescreens to the contrary are poor form. 
 
WHERE'S MY +25% BRADY BONUS!?!?!
My team total is somewhere around 200. My teams not crappy. The PFF numbers are still bullshit.
 

soxfan121

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
My team total is somewhere around 200. My teams not crappy. The PFF numbers are still bullshit.
 
1. You got something better?
2. You ever gonna explain WHY they are bullshit or do we just need to content ourselves with the knowledge you "feel" they're bullshit?
3. Smokescreen. If PFF says your team is good, then I, too, question the PFF numbers. 
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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JerBear said:
AFC East.  
 
Totals
[tablegrid= AFC East Totals ]Pos Dolphins  Patriots  Jets  Bills  O Total 55 43 55.6 100.1 D Total 56.2 106 60.6 -29 ST 32.4 41.6 30.4 11.7 Total 143 190 146.6 82.8 W Total 17.2 201.8 -51.4 181.2  [/tablegrid]
 
 
 
I think the 10x for QB's might be a bit too high and the ST/10% a little too low, but this is how the AFC East shakes out. 
 
Still hate the PFF scores, Eck? Best team in the East.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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ElcaballitoMVP said:
 
 
I think the 10x for QB's might be a bit too high and the ST/10% a little too low, but this is how the AFC East shakes out. 
 
Still hate the PFF scores, Eck? Best team in the East.
 
Already added the outcomes from what you posted earlier. Thanks again for doing that by the way.
 
And, yes I still think they're full of crap. I was going through some numbers yesterday and noticed a few inaccuracies.
 
 
soxfan121 said:
 
1. You got something better?
2. You ever gonna explain WHY they are bullshit or do we just need to content ourselves with the knowledge you "feel" they're bullshit?
3. Smokescreen. If PFF says your team is good, then I, too, question the PFF numbers. 
 
1.I don't have anything better than looking at straight statistics, no.
 
2.I'll get in depth a little later when i have some time to go back through the charts DoDM posted and list some of the numbers I thought were off. 
 
3.Exactly. Because it's a great team.
 

bakahump

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Can someone with the time and PFF account throw up the AFC West?  Not sure anyone in the division has an account.
 

Phragle

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
 
So the WR3 is the same weight as a CB1, LT, or WR1?
 
Sweet.
 
Better than the same weight as the QB!
 
soxfan121 said:
 
1. You got something better?
2. You ever gonna explain WHY they are bullshit or do we just need to content ourselves with the knowledge you "feel" they're bullshit?
3. Smokescreen. If PFF says your team is good, then I, too, question the PFF numbers. 
 
What do think we're doing with these numbers? They aren't deciding games.
 

soxfan121

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phragle said:
What do think we're doing with these numbers? They aren't deciding games.
 
I thought we'd ritually execute the GM with the worst score. 
 
Why...is that not what we're doing?
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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I'm going to run through my buddy Nick Foles for starters:
 
Ranked 16th with a 5.4 overall rating and a 5.6 pass rating according to PFF
 
2891 yds 317 ATT
 
Comp% of 64 which would put him 9th: Better than Wilson, Brady, Cutler, Luck and Romo all rated ahead of him. .2 worse than the Rapist.
 
9.1 yds per attempt would be 1st
 
27/2 TD/INT ratio 1st
 
27 passing TD's would put him 8th: Ahead of all of those above, except switch Romo(31) for Ryan(26). 1 less than the Rapist.
 
NFL Rating 119.2 1st
 
Jay Cutler: 10.0 pass rating from PFF
 
2621 yds 355 ATT
 
63.1 Comp%
 
7.4 yds per attempt
 
19 TD's to 12 INT's
 
NFL Rating 89.2
 
Russel Wilson: 13.1 pass rating from PFF
 
3357 yds 407 ATT
 
63.1 Comp%
 
8.2 yds per attemp
 
26 TD's to 9 INT's
 
NFL Rating 101.2
 
How is it possible for Wilson and Cutler to double the pass rating from PFF despite less productivity?
 
Edit: To add, the worst part about the PFF scheme, from what I can tell, is that it's purely subjective. It's not based off of actual quantifiable things like in baseball sabermetrics. It seems like it's based off of opinions of people watching games and trying to attach numbers to actions. That amounts to an absolute shit ton of noise. 
 

soxfan121

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
I'm going to run through my buddy Nick Foles for starters:
 
He played in 13 total games, starting a total of 10.  Because without looking too deeply at it, that would explain why he is rated behind other players like Wilson or Brady, who played all 16. 
 
But let's put aside QBs for a moment - do you think using raw stats to compare WR (for example) is problematic? How about evaluating OL play? 
 
I mean, I get that the PFF numbers are a bit arcane and difficult to replicate and hard to understand...but I'm still not sure what the alternative is or why its bad to use this as one of the measures. 
 
I'll look forward to your write up on why your team is better than its PFF grades and all the other data you bring to the table. However, your arguments to this point have been unconvincing.
 

Dollar

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bakahump said:
Can someone with the time and PFF account throw up the AFC West?  Not sure anyone in the division has an account.
 
Yeah I can't wait to see this too, and unfortunately I have no access to the numbers.  I am sure that the Buckin' Broncos are going to dominate, though.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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soxfan121 said:
 
He played in 13 total games, starting a total of 10.  Because without looking too deeply at it, that would explain why he is rated behind other players like Wilson or Brady, who played all 16. 
 
But let's put aside QBs for a moment - do you think using raw stats to compare WR (for example) is problematic? How about evaluating OL play? 
 
I mean, I get that the PFF numbers are a bit arcane and difficult to replicate and hard to understand...but I'm still not sure what the alternative is or why its bad to use this as one of the measures. 
 
I'll look forward to your write up on why your team is better than its PFF grades and all the other data you bring to the table. However, your arguments to this point have been unconvincing.
 
So glad you went that route. Cutler only started and played in 11. Also, please explain then how Josh McCown who played in 8 games and started 5 was given a pass rating of 14.3? Or Aaron Rodgers received a 12.9 while playing and starting 9?
 
I'm not saying raw stats are perfect, I'm just trying to point out how crazy the PFF numbers seem to be. I'm also not saying not use them, I'm just trying to discredit them.
 

soxfan121

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Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
 
So glad you went that route. Cutler only started and played in 11. Also, please explain then how Josh McCown who played in 8 games and started 5 was given a pass rating of 14.3? Or Aaron Rodgers received a 12.9 while playing and starting 9?
 
I'm not saying raw stats are perfect, I'm just trying to point out how crazy the PFF numbers seem to be. I'm also not saying not use them, I'm just trying to discredit them.
 
And you're doing a shitty job. But I'm repeating myself. 
 
I mean, I get that the PFF numbers are a bit arcane and difficult to replicate and hard to understand...but I'm still not sure what the alternative is or why its bad to use this as one of the measures. 
 
 
I look forward to YOU putting in the effort to "discredit" the PFF numbers. I'll be glad to read and consider your reasoning when you do so. You might even be right. But up to this point, all you've done is whine that your system QB is undervalued by PFF and that he was better than Jay Cutler. Bang up job, smokey. ;-)