Pritchard Extended
- Thread starter amfox1
- Start date
theoretically any system incorporating plus minus should be accounting for competition and teammates but the effectiveness of that adjustment is always questionable.
Agreed, and while I realize their listed weight is the same FVV seems bigger (especially in lower half) to me and that materially impacts how much guys at the small end of the height spectrum are able to stand in place defensively. PP has made some progress here, but it remains a real difference to my eyes.
FVV is also, if not really an all-star, a clear plus starter-level guy. So PP doesn't have to get all the way there to be a great value and impact rotation guy for the Celtics and he either is already there, or is getting close pending how well he can stay on in playoffs. PP shooting 40% on threes and being a quality distributor is a great value even if defensively he is taken advantage of...and if he can even sometimes hold his own there, that's even more of a benefit
My thought is that he’s getting a lot from DWhite and Drue. His hesitation dribbles, body angles and use of his shoulder to create space/ hesitation in the defender.. a lot of that feels like almost a direct copy of what White does. It feels like a lot of what he's doing in relation to how he gets defenders off balance are pretty new to this year. And as Maxwell said.. PP is just oozing confidence right now, which also helps.
This is the craziest stat I have seen in a while.
View: https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1772302763231211665?s=20
The crazy part: they're the only 2 players in Celtics history to score over 90 PTS, hand out 40+ AST, and commit no more than 5 TOV in a 5-game span. And they did it AT THE SAME TIME.
View: https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1772302763231211665?s=20
White's last 5 games: 94 PTS, 40 AST, 5 TOV
Pritchard's last 5 games: 91 PTS, 40 AST, 5 TOV
The crazy part: they're the only 2 players in Celtics history to score over 90 PTS, hand out 40+ AST, and commit no more than 5 TOV in a 5-game span. And they did it AT THE SAME TIME.
Yes this ^^^
Coaching is great for certain tips but you learn from your teammates and opponents by implementing parts of their games that you’re capable of executing. This is every level.
I have a question for everyone: Pretend that Pritchard wasn't extended at the beginning of the season for four years at $30 million (another smart Brad move, in a long series). Based on how he's played this year, what do you think the contract would like if they extended him for four years right now (this assumes they could, which they couldn't at this point in the season of course). Pritchard definitely has made some leaps. Some of that doesn't surprise me (I always thought he had potential as a point guard, and was a good passer, and he was a pesky defender so I could see him leveling up there too), but some has (I didn't imagine he'd figure out the non-three point part of his offensive game as much as he has).
So what would a four-year contract for him look like right now? Four years at $10-$12 million per? Or could he get a bit more? I'm interested to see what others think.
So what would a four-year contract for him look like right now? Four years at $10-$12 million per? Or could he get a bit more? I'm interested to see what others think.
Hmm, that seems low to me. This is what Darko shows for some point guards in their mid to late 20s who are being paid the following per year (I think the ages are low by a year, and the salaries I got from spotrac may be slightly outdated, but this will give an idea): Tyus Jones, 26, $14.5m; Gabe Vincent, 27, $11m; Dennis Schroder, 29, $12.7m; Devonte Graham, 26, $11.825m.
I love that people post DARKO graphs so frequently and seeing it so often has really got me into using it myself. I'm curious why I don't see others switch the time scale from games to seasons more often. Is it not common knowledge that it's possible? When comparing current performance, it seems like you get a cleaner visual representation. I'm not trying to nit pick anyone, but I've been genuinely curious about this for a while. I've often gone and re-run a chart someone else posted and then switch it just so I can see it in a layout I think works a little better (like the one above and below).
Yes, it's cleaner looking, and better represents how they compare to each other now, but I would imagine the strong case for doing it the original way is so you can compare people at the same point in their careers (now that I'm thinking about it though, I wonder how DARKO determines at game "0" that Schroder was almost a -4 while Pritchard was closer to a -1.6 ... hmm). So maybe you can get a better sense of how someone will develop (though there's a wide range of outcomes obviously), and how they compare to other players at a like stage in their development.
I'm not sure either way is preferable; it probably comes down to what you want to show.
The line is best fitting and it looks that way because PP had was productive immediately upon playing, while DS (as one can see from the cluster at the beginning of his career) did not. PP has been fairly productive on the offensive side from day 1, which is not surprising given his handle and shooting.
Hauser & PP at similar DARKO levels. Very similar minutes
I wouldn't put it past PBS to get Sam on a similar deal
Want Boston to keep this band together for as long as possible
I wouldn't put it past PBS to get Sam on a similar deal
Want Boston to keep this band together for as long as possible
Wrong thread perhaps, but assuming that Al ages at some point, do you want Tillman (albeit with a different skill set) assuming his role?
I love Tillman -- if he's healthy. That's becoming a significant "if," as his knee problems seem to be affecting his ability to stay in front of people. If we're catching him on the front end of a knee-related decline, that changes the calculus for me. I trust Brad will have his knee checked out for the onset of any permanent structural damage. But I'd sign a healthy Tillman in a heartbeat.
Thanks for posting the graph in the first place, it really made your point. I was surprised PP was so far above those guys but Schroder in particular.
He's outperforming a lot of the guys on this list of top 30 PGs heading into the season.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-point-guard-rankings-2023-24-starters/9c74d355ef6a89962fb30bc7
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I know people have their doubts about PP's postseason defense, but it's not like comparable guards (by salary, production) are defensive stoppers either.
As is often said here, defense isn't just about "good or bad." There's "elite", "good", "not hurting you", "not great", "bad", and "IT4".
PP is somewhere between "not hurting you" and "not great", depending on context. I should probably revise his fair salary upward somewhat.
As is often said here, defense isn't just about "good or bad." There's "elite", "good", "not hurting you", "not great", "bad", and "IT4".
PP is somewhere between "not hurting you" and "not great", depending on context. I should probably revise his fair salary upward somewhat.
Good point. Point guard is probably the position where even really good defensive teams are willing to give a little on defensive ability.
Pritchard has figured out how to use his ball handling, speed, low center of gravity, and increased strength to move defenders off their mark around the rim. Didn't see that in previous seasons
Defensively, I think that strength has translated where he can credibly guard 1-3 on switches without fouling. He also uses his quickness to grab loose rebounds, which has kind of been cropping up recently (ATL games, PDX yesterday).
I've previously had my playoff doubts about PP. BUT Payton adds increased ball security (along with White) when they initiate & his defense is fine esp. when hounding the opposing PG the entire length of the floor. Still want CJM to avoid having him on the floor with Alpha hunters like Butler.
Would like to see PP & Hauser enter around the 5-minute mark of Q1 playoff games. Wouldn't expect any playoff DNP-CDs for either.
That would be nice, but it would require Sam Hauser’s agent to be incompetent. PP’s contract is a steal.
PP had a bit more leverage and will have earned $10MM by the end of this year before the ext kicks in.
Sam will have made a total of $3.5MM by the end of this season & gets paid $2MM next season.
Guaranteeing $30MM for multiple years can be attractive, since Sam & his new bride may want to go house hunting this summer
Anything that averages $12.5MM/yr or under for Sam is frankly a steal, but Brad works in mysterious ways
Ok I’ll bring up the elephant in the room…..
Does Pritchard’s performance this year, presume for this exercise that he continues it in playoffs, affect Wyc’s willingness to pay Jrue silly money for his year 34-37 seasons?
There are several homeless man’s Jrue’s out there for a small fraction of his cost at much fewer years. This would seem like a viable alternative from an investment side as the team will still be favorites to repeat IF we win it this year.
Does Pritchard’s performance this year, presume for this exercise that he continues it in playoffs, affect Wyc’s willingness to pay Jrue silly money for his year 34-37 seasons?
There are several homeless man’s Jrue’s out there for a small fraction of his cost at much fewer years. This would seem like a viable alternative from an investment side as the team will still be favorites to repeat IF we win it this year.
If he shows it in the playoffs, they have to consider this.
In that case, the move would be to work a S&T with Jrue to an over-the-cap team this summer.
Jrue is obviously light-years better as a defender, but PP is actually starting to do more in terms of breaking down a defense and creating his own shot and finding others for looks, which is a useful skill. Jrue will continue to decline in that aspect as he ages up.
Pritchard had more leverage, but he had also proven quite a bit less before this year than Hauser has up to this point. It seems like the obvious move for Hauser to bet on himself. His value is in his size (6'8, 215), his 3 point shooting, and his ability to play passable defense. If Hauser had just broken out this year I might think differently, but this is his 3 point % over the last 7 seasons (he sat out 2020 due to transfer rules):PP had a bit more leverage and will have earned $10MM by the end of this year before the ext kicks in.
Sam will have made a total of $3.5MM by the end of this season & gets paid $2MM next season.
Guaranteeing $30MM for multiple years can be attractive, since Sam & his new bride may want to go house hunting this summer
Anything that averages $12.5MM/yr or under for Sam is frankly a steal, but Brad works in mysterious ways
2017: .453 (college)
2018: .487 (college)
2019: .402 (college)
2021: .417 (college)
2022: .432 (NBA)
2023: .418 (NBA)
2024: .428 (NBA)
His one A+ skill is as consistent as they come, he's not going to shrink, and he's already proven that he's at least a solid regular season rotation player for a good team. It'd be shocking if Hauser settles for a team friendly deal.
I’m not even suggesting PP replace him in the starting lineup as he’s really good as a change of pace energy guy off the bench. I’d hate to take that away by him starting games. So many Jrue types out there to do 80% of what he is asked to do in his role on this team. It’s similar to Ray Allen that I spoke about often in 2008….they have to dumb their game down for the good of the team but their role can be replaced fairly easily without a ton of drop-off.
Max Strus signed for 4/$62. Luke Kennard (granted, a couple years prior so different cap economics) 4/$56. Donte Divencenzo, 4/$46. Malik Monk 2/$19.5
Feels like Hauser is in that $12 mil or a bit more range to me, though with a skillset someone might overpay for (e.g. the Duncan Robinson 5/$90 mil at old economics). Celts probably argue he's at low end of those comps in terms of upside and versatility---he argues he's a better shooter and that's the skillset being paid for in these deals.
Is Alex Caruso an 80% Jrue facsimile?
Those are gaudy #s, even in his one G-League season he posted 40.7% from 3
My favorite Hauser college stat: #1 defensive-rated player in the Big East (2019) driven by the most defensive rebounds
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/sam-hauser-1.html
I still feel like there is a major or semi-major domino to fall with the team's core. Hope I'm wrong, but that tax bill could become insane. Jrue doesn't have age on his side.
I don't think it will involve Tatum or KP. I could see an argument for 1 of the other 3 starters not being here long term, and PP/Hauser being good certainly would soften the blow.
That they didn't sign Jrue right away once he was eligible suggests there's a little bit of negotiating to do here. He has a player option for next year, so he has a lot of leverage near-term.
If I were Celtics I'd be assessing both Jrue and White and what each would take to sign. I must keep one of them, and would like to keep two...but they are somewhat connected in that if I lose Jrue I really need to pay White whatever it takes....and if I can extend White, I am more comfortable drawing a line with Jrue. What are extension rules with White at this point---is he caught in that dump 125% thing, or no?
If I were Celtics I'd be assessing both Jrue and White and what each would take to sign. I must keep one of them, and would like to keep two...but they are somewhat connected in that if I lose Jrue I really need to pay White whatever it takes....and if I can extend White, I am more comfortable drawing a line with Jrue. What are extension rules with White at this point---is he caught in that dump 125% thing, or no?
If the choice is DW or JH, its Derrick White by quite a bit.
Bobby Marks: Derrick White has reached the 65-game criteria. The Boston guard is now eligible for postseason honors. White was named All-NBA Defensive 2nd team in 2023. He has 3 pending bonuses: $250K: All-NBA Defensive (1st or 2nd) $500K: 185+ 3-pointers made (currently 172) $500K: 70+ games played He reached the All-Defensive and games played bonus in 2023. White is eligible to sign a four-year $123M extension in the offseason.
No question DW over JH. Question is whether White wants to go to full FA to get more htan that 4/$123 I guess....presumably at his age Celtics offer him that.
I also have zero idea how much they will spend---this ownership group went way into tax when last it made sense to. My gut is that they green-lit the Jrue deal knowing the cost of it, but we'll see. If I'm wrong, I think they will explore both to be sure they get one...
I also have zero idea how much they will spend---this ownership group went way into tax when last it made sense to. My gut is that they green-lit the Jrue deal knowing the cost of it, but we'll see. If I'm wrong, I think they will explore both to be sure they get one...
Agree. The thing is that DWhite, Jaylen, Hauser, and PP all improved more than expected (adjusted for age etc). That probably changes Brad's calculus from the time Jrue was acquired:
DWhite will cost more to extend/sign
Trading Jaylen is less attractive than keeping him
PP can run bench units better than expected
Hauser will cost more and can play more minutes and in more matchups
Heck, even Kornet might cost more than expected to re-sign. A lot of things broke right for the Cs in player development, and they probably combine to make Jrue a luxury.
At the risk of being reply-quoted this summer (the horror!), I am going to predict an S&T for Jrue, with someone like Caruso being acquired for draft assets.
That's quite reasonable.
I also do not rule out the possiblity that both White and Jrue simply want to win and enjoy their situation, not maximize dollars. That is, I know, typically not what happens...but both those guys seem like the type.
Of course, winning this year is a nearly-essential enabler of that possibility
I also do not rule out the possiblity that both White and Jrue simply want to win and enjoy their situation, not maximize dollars. That is, I know, typically not what happens...but both those guys seem like the type.
Of course, winning this year is a nearly-essential enabler of that possibility
Given where White has come from, I think he will be over the moon to make 4 / $123M. But I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again.
I think Sam Hauser is a guy who will get one chance, and only one chance, to go UFA in his prime. Because of that, he might be reluctant to sign an extension.
As to Holiday, he is 33 and has a player option for next year at $39M. What do we think he's looking for versus his continued value as a top player? Can we get him on a 4+1 end of career type deal? Or a 1+1 and then a 4+1?
As to Holiday, he is 33 and has a player option for next year at $39M. What do we think he's looking for versus his continued value as a top player? Can we get him on a 4+1 end of career type deal? Or a 1+1 and then a 4+1?
If they win a title this year, is there a precedent for this kind of move? I'm genuinely asking. How often do teams win a championship and then immediately let a key starter leave over money?
I guess I also have to ask, what are you defining as "silly money"? I think paying him like $35,000,000+ a year would be too much, but $28-30,000,000 is fine. And while there are guys like Alex Caruso (or whomever) who can give you a good amount of what Jrue Holiday can, doesn't that work against Holiday demanding some huge extension from the Celtics? Why wouldn't the 76ers or one of those fringe contenders that can create cap space just trade for the younger/cheaper Caruso and then use the remaining cap space to fill other holes on their roster instead of paying free agent prices for Holiday?
Porzingis signed a 2 year, $60,000,000 extension. I realize his situation was different than Holiday's, but they impact winning in a similar way at this point and Porzingis is significantly younger. Holiday's contract situation feels comparable to where Al Horford was when he left Boston to join the 76ers, though I believe Al was going into his age 33 season. Al signed for 4 years, $109,000,000 with $97,000,000 guaranteed. I'm guessing an extension for Holiday ends up in a similar place and that any 4th year is going to be a partial or non-guarantee to mitigate some of the decline risk in the final year.
I'm sure he's not the only one, but my first thought was Tyson Chandler. He was the starting center (and made 2nd team all-defense and finished 3rd in DPOY voting) in 2011 when the Mavs won the title, and left the team over money as part of a sign and trade with the Knicks before the start of the next season.
That was the start of the Mavs basically doing everything wrong in between their 2011 title and drafting Luka in 2018.
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Literally was just about to post this one, since it's by far the most famous recent example.
A lowkey big one was LeBron leaving Miami in 2014. Rumor was that the Heat owner didn't want to pay such big tax bills, and that kickstarted the process that ended up back in Cleveland.
Wait, Lebron left Miami because of money? In a league with individual max contracts, how on earth do you let the 29 year old best player in the league (who just won 2 titles in 3 years) leave over money? I think the world of Erik Spoelstra (his ability to get competent playoff play out of scrubs is just incredible), but they've gotten exactly one all-star level player via free agency or trade in the last decade, despite an extremely desirable location and no state income tax. Pat Reilly is the most overrated exec in recent history.
My memory is not perfect here, but I think I recall that Arison was getting antsy about the luxury tax bills, and that it wasn't a Riley thing.
Jrue can get as much as he wants - wpuldn't be surprised if signed a max or near-max but also wouldn't be surprised if he took less to stay w/ BOS, particularly if they win it all. It's really up to him and factors none of us are privy to.
By the end of this season, his career earnings will be over a quarter of a bilion dollars. He won't be starving his children to take less to stay with Boston if he wants.
Yep, not everyone is driven by maximizing every penny out of their work efforts. I don’t know either of these gents and they may want every last dime, which is entirely their right. If I were advising them, comfort level for them and their families in answering the who, what, where, when, why questions should dictate their decisions, not simply dollars. They both seem to relish the work situation in Boston, I could see both of them signing reasonable deals that keep the team intact.
I'm sure they can just ask Horford what might happen if they go for top dollar.
Though in fairness, Kyrie probably killed Al's motivation to stay.
Though in fairness, Kyrie probably killed Al's motivation to stay.
He got his payday and got to come back to a championship contender. Not sure Al is a great example for not seeking top dollar
He had to waste a year of his prime being mothballed in OKC, then took well below market to stay in Boston after that deal was up. I think there's a decent amount of evidence that Al Horford eventually decided to optimize for winning over maximum dollar extraction.