My preview, for whatever it's worth...
Team Rankings:
- Bal: Offense - #8 points, #12 yards; Defense - #6 points, #8 yards
- NE: Offense - #4 points, #11 yards; Defense - #8 points, #13 yards
Right off the bat, that seems like a very even matchup. Let's get a little deeper.
When Baltimore has the ball….
The Ravens' passer rating is 91.0, good for 14th in the NFL. 3819 yards, 27 td, 12 int. They've yielded just 19 sacks. Flacco likes to stand back there and throw it deep. 55 of his 554 pass attempts (10%) have been thrown 21 yards or more downfield. By contrast, Brady has thrown 48 of his 582 passes 21 yards or more downfield (8.2%). Baltimore has 4 primary receiving threats:
- Steve Smith: 122 targets, 79 rec, 1065 yds, 13.5 ypc, 6 td
- Torrey Smith: 85 targets, 49 rec, 767 yds, 15.7 ypc, 11 td
- Owen Daniels: 74 targets, 48 rec, 527 yds, 11.0 ypc, 4 td
- Justin Forsett: 55 targets, 44 rec, 263 yds, 6.0 ypc, 0 td
Fortunately, the Patriots are loaded with cover guys this year. The Pats' pass defense is holding opposing QBs to just an 84.0 passer rating, good for 8th in the NFL. Revis is turning opposing QBs into Ryan Lindley. Browner is solid. McCourty cleans everything up deep. They very much have the defensive weapons to slow Baltimore's passing attack down. The concern is with Flacco's chuck-it-deep-and-get-a-pass-interference-penalty strategy. I fear that Browner will get one or two key ones that will turn into big chunks of yardage or come on key third downs that will help Baltimore sustain drives. I don't think that's an unfounded fear. It's not hard for any of us to picture that scenario happening. And I don't see the Patriots' pass rush getting to Flacco too often, so it'll come down to the cover guys.
When Baltimore turns to the running game, they have a good one. They finished 8th in the league with 126.2 yards per game, and 7th in the league with a 4.5 yards per carry average. Forsett is very good. Pearce is solid. Their running game should be a lot to handle. New England tends to be pretty stout against the run, finishing 9th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, at 104.3 per game, and also 9th in terms of rushing yards per carry allowed, at 4.0. So I think they're well-equipped to slow Baltimore's running game down.
Long story short, I see Baltimore having a hard time scoring points from their offense. This is the best Patriots' defense the Ravens have seen in over a decade. They will not simply run over the Patriots. They will not simply march down the field on them. They may score some, but it will be limited and they'll have to catch some breaks.
When New England has the ball...
The Patriots had the highest scoring offense until they chose not to play the last game of the year, so the scoring offense ranking is a tad misleading. The passing game was once again elite. They finished 9th in passing yards per game (258), and Brady's passer rating was a sparkling 97.4. He had 33 td and just 9 interceptions. He does a great job taking care of the ball. His weakness is throwing deep, but given the Raven's pass rush, I don't see them trying that too often anyway. They'll focus on short drops, quick-hitters, and screens to combat the Ravens' talented pass rush. I also see them running up-tempo more often, trying to catch Baltimore in unfavorable matchups (favorable for the Pats) that they'll want to exploit.
In terms of receivers, the Pats' receiving corps should be fully healthy. Edelman, LaFell, Gronkowski, Wright, Amendola, and Vereen all pose matchup problems for the Ravens. If Brady has time to throw, he should be able to pick Baltimore apart. Baltimore finished 19th in the league in opposing QB passer rating (90.6), so there's no reason, if Brady has time, that the Pats shouldn't be able to move the ball in the air consistently against Baltimore.
When they decide to run, things will get markedly more difficult for the Patriots. Baltimore finished 4th in the league in rushing yards allowed (just 88.3 per game) and 3rd in rush yards allowed per attempt (just 3.6). So they are very tough to run on. And the Patriots have a modestly effective, but not spectacular, running game - finishing 19th in yards per game (107.9) and 22nd in yards per attempt (3.9). So don't expect them to move the ball that well on the ground against the Ravens. This will be decided by how good the Patriots' passing game is.
And THAT probably will be decided by the protection up front. And this is an area of major concern for New England. Let's talk about the Ravens' pass rush first. Suggs (12.0) and Dumervil (17.0) are tremendous off the edges. And Ngata is a force in the middle. McPhee had 7.5 sacks and Jernigan had 4.0 as well. They can bring pressure. They finished 3rd in the NFL in sacks this year with 49. They had 5 sacks and 5 QB hits against Pittsburgh this weekend.
Now what about the Patriots' pass protection? Overall this year it was solid, as they finished 4th in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed, with 26. But that number doesn't really tell the whole story, or why this is an area of concern. The first four games of the year, the Patriots' offensive line was a work in progress. Injuries, trying new players, etc. And the last two games of the year they were missing key OL with injuries. So in those six games, they didn't have their optimal offensive line. And in those six games they allowed 18 sacks and 35 QB hits (3.0 and 5.8 per game, respectively). In the 10 games where they had their optimal offensive line (Solder, Connelly, Stork, Wendell, Vollmer), they allowed just 8 sacks and 49 QB hits (0.8 and 4.9, respectively). So a HUGE key in this game will be whether the Patriots have their optimal offensive line unit out there. If they do, I will feel much better about the pass protection. If they don't, then I will worry.
If Brady doesn't have time, he may make mistakes. We've seen it before, especially recently in playoff games. Mistakes, turnovers, missing receivers, being pressured and hit = offensive problems for the Patriots. I fear a strip sack or a pick-six that will greatly aid Baltimore's offense considerably. This is not an unfounded fear. It's happened before, and I could easily see this happening again. If the Pats' OL is fully healthy and ready to go, then I will worry less about it.
Special Teams...
This is one area where the Pats tend to have a clear advantage over their opponents. Great coverage units, excellent return units (, the best kicker in the game, and a very good punter. Baltimore, however, also has some special teams strengths. They are third in the NFL in punting average (47.4) and 2nd in net punting (44.6). Their punt coverage unit finished 9th in the league with a 7.2 average allowed. And their kickoff coverage was better than average as well, finishing 14th, allowing 23.1 yards per return. But their kicker is a problem. Tucker finished 15th in the NFL in FG%, converting 85.3% of his kicks. Meanwhile, Gostkowski made 94.6% of his kicks (2nd in the NFL). So clear edge to New England there.
The Patriots seemingly get at least one big play from their special teams every game - be it a big kick or punt return, or a block of some sort. While they have an edge there, I don't think you can count on a big special teams play. Consider it a nice bonus, one that can turn a game, but you can't bank on it happening. However, it's more likely that New England gets a big play from the special teams than does Baltimore.
Coaching and Intangibles...
I think we'd all say the coaching edge goes to New England, but John Harbaugh is a quality coach who knows how to win, and in a one-game scenario I do not think he will necessarily be out-coached by Belichick. Moreover, and this will be said a million times between now and Saturday, the Ravens will *not* be intimidated or scared coming into Foxboro. They've won two big playoff games in New England in recent years, and the one they lost they easily could have won. They will relish this opportunity to come in here. I expect their very best.
That said, the Patriots absolutely wrecked the Ravens last year in Baltimore, 41-7. They have their best defense in a decade. They have their key offensive skill guys healthy (Gronk, Edelman, Blount). If their OL is healthy, I think the Patriots will put up points at home against Baltimore. And I think they will be able to slow the Ravens down.
That said, I don't think it will be as easy as it seems to be. The game will likely be a real meat grinder. A bad turnover, a key penalty, the bounce of a football….all those things could conspire against the Patriots on Saturday. I expect a close, white-knuckle kind of game. The Patriots are without question the better football team, and they're rested, and they're home. Those are major advantages. They *should* win the game. And I think they will. But it will not be easy.
I think NE wins the game something like 23-20 or 27-24.