Pre-game thread: Divisional Round vs. Ravens

[SeoulSoxFan]

Watching the last Ravens game last December, a few things noticed:

• Flacco was hurt (knee) and it affected the passing game
• Even with a healthier secondary, the middle zones can definitely be exploited
• No Gronk for the Pats, but a fully healthy Edelman more than made up the gap
• A veteran like Blount can cut across the over-pursuit by the DL and have big gains
• Having Revis should effectively cancel out one of the Smith
• Lack of TE (hobbled Pitta) production was a big factor, especially for a Kubiak offense
• Ravens was playing a critical game at home, fighting for a playoff spot. Yet the Patriots outplayed them on pretty much all phases of the game

A healthy Edelman and Gronk will prevent Ravens LB from crowding up. LaFell is a huge upgrade over Dobson as well.
 
Baltimore can collapse the pocket against NE's inconsistent interior OL. A spread offense with quicker tempo offense should negate the rush, and Blount will have chances for his (suddenly) patented cut-back runs. 
 
On defense, Pats' DL is much more improved (no Branch nor Wilfork last year). Add Arrington to the secondary depth and they have a chance to keep Baltimore under 20. 
 
Of course, no turnovers is a must in any playoff game, but I'm feeling rationally confident against this irrationally scary Ravens team.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Our friend Doug Kyed with an early preview: http://nesn.com/2015/01/patriots-ravens-playoff-preview-rob-gronkowski-should-be-difference-maker/
 
Baltimore depth chart: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/depth-chart/BAL/baltimore-ravens (yup, that's my former Pats training camp binky Kamar Aiken as 3rd WR option)

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Two sensible, non-nancy posts from the wildcard gamethread:
 

Where is the bloodlust? Getting the 1 seed makes a fan base warier of humiliation than hungry to lay the wood on an opponent. And if there's an opponent I would like to lay the wood on, it's Baltimore. Being favored creates this sense that one is ferrying a tippy tray of Waterford Crystal to the dining room—trying to pick the safest path to the table. No. Give me the Ravens.

 

If you fear the Ravens then you don't have much hope for this postseason as the Pats will face two far superior teams after. Massive lol at being worried about the freaking Ravens.

 
OFT said it best: Baltimore delenda est.

 

[Dogman]

Two sensible, non-nancy posts from the wildcard gamethread:
 
 
 
OFT said it best: Baltimore delenda est.

 
 
I'm positive you can come up with something far less ignorant to define the sky is falling crowd.  Be better than this. 

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Pardon me?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

I'm positive you can come up with something far less ignorant to define the sky is falling crowd.  Be better than this. 

 
I don't get this either D2. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Per Doug again:
 

@DougKyedNESN Darrelle Revis in coverage: 
 
Vs. Steve Smith: 2-10, 21 yards, 2 INTs, 0 TDs
Vs. Torrey Smith: 0-1
Vs. Joe Flacco: 0-5

 

[Dogman]

Pardon me?

 
 

 
I don't get this either D2. 

 
nancy 

(n): Mocking term for a man engaging in feminine activities or otherwise compromising his masculinity.

 

[Reverend]

If the game thread isn't named "Baltimore delenda est" I'm changing it.

Maybe OFT should start it.

Edit: apparently it was started yesterday... Hmmmm.

 

[Reverend]

nancy [/size]

(n): Mocking term for a man engaging in feminine activities or otherwise compromising his masculinity.

I missed that too. Good catch.

I'm slipping.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

I'm sorry, there's no way that's a misogynistic term.  Similar to how "Dick" was a man's name/nickname long before people started using it to refer to genitalia.  We're using "nancy" to mean a very specific sky-is-falling behavior, not to call them "women" and thereby imply that they are bad or wrong.  No moreso than calling someone a "Pollyanna" is a shorthand for an overly optimistic outlook.  To take offense to that term is to stretch offense-taking really pretty far.
 
If you're going to get on my case about it, though, I eagerly await you calling out the numerous people who use it in RMPS all the time (especially the game threads).  Or, better yet, the multiple people in the wildcard gamethread, you know, yesterday.  Or the gamethread a week ago, with Al Zarilla tossing it out.  Or lots of other places on the site, day-in and day-out.
 
Or maybe you've just got a 'thing' for me, dating back to when you decided to send me a PM to emphasize to me exactly how much I could go fuck myself, and you just can't look away.  Maybe you should ignore me, as you're kinda just embarrassing yourself in your search for something to get on my case about, Dogman.

 

[Dogman]

I'm sorry, there's no way that's a misogynistic term.  Similar to how "Dick" was a man's name/nickname long before people started using it to refer to genitalia.  We're using "nancy" to mean a very specific sky-is-falling behavior, not to call them "women" and thereby imply that they are bad or wrong.  No moreso than calling someone a "Pollyanna" is a shorthand for an overly optimistic outlook.  To take offense to that term is to stretch offense-taking really pretty far.
 
If you're going to get on my case about it, though, I eagerly await you calling out the numerous people who use it in RMPS all the time (especially the game threads).  Or, better yet, the multiple people in the wildcard gamethread, you know, yesterday.  Or the gamethread a week ago, with Al Zarilla tossing it out.  Or lots of other places on the site, day-in and day-out.
 
 
Or maybe you've just got a 'thing' for me, dating back to when you decided to send me a PM to emphasize to me exactly how much I could go fuck myself, and you just can't look away.  Maybe you should ignore me, as you're kinda just embarrassing yourself in your search for something to get on my case about, Dogman.
 

 
Doubling down is always a good thing. 
 
Your ignorance really isn't stunning. 
 
Admit your mistake and move on.

 

[RIrooter09]

We're already turning on each other.  This will be a long week.

 

[Dogman]

We're already turning on each other.  This will be a long week.

 
Nah.  I would have said something to anyone who posted that same term last night.  I simply didn't see them. An ignorant term was used, so I called him on it. That's it. 

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

It's a lose-lose matchup. If the Pats win, you'll have the "don't be a wuss" crowd making sure that everyone knows how confident they were before the game. And if the Pats lose, you'll have the "irrational fear" crowd doing the I told you so routine. It won't be fixed until we can unite against a common enemy...Peyton Manning.

 
That's a fair point.  I do think that the 20-30% chance we do lose the game is being stretched by how much worse we'd all feel if it came to pass, because it's the Ravens and screw those guys.  Losing to Indy or Cincy, we'd at least be able to appreciate that they'd played a great game and/or the Pats played a lousy one without hearing all the ugly quotes afterwards or the unsufferable arrogance of the likes of Suggs or Harbaugh.  I don't think we'd be any less likely to lose to Indy or Cincinnati, but it would hurt a lot less if we did.
 
But you're right, maybe we should have a moratorium on telling people they ought to be more afraid of Baltimore - or unafraid - at least until Saturday.  It certainly won't improve discussion around here to keep rattling off the same misleading / slanted numbers about Baltimore to support whatever emotionally-driven point of view any given poster happens to have.  It's not like we're going to convince someone who believes otherwise to believe that we're definitely going to win or definitely going to lose.

 

[Reverend]

I'm sorry, there's no way that's a misogynistic term. 

 
Perhaps... Though you might want to look up the etymology of the term before you decide whether or not this word is a hill you want to make a stand on.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I'm in the don't be a wuss crowd but not because I'm not afraid of Baltimore, losing to them would suck. But it's the playoffs and the games are not supposed to be easy, so whatever. If the Pats are finally going to win that third ring they are going to have to win three tough games, starting with the Ravens. We'd all love the games to be easier but it generally doesn't work that way.

 

[Reverend]

I'm in the don't be a wuss crowd but not because I'm not afraid of Baltimore, losing to them would suck. But it's the playoffs and the games are not supposed to be easy, so whatever. If the Pats are finally going to win that third ring they are going to have to win three tough games, starting with the Ravens. We'd all love the games to be easier but it generally doesn't work that way.

 
"I can't believe we won with this fucking team."

 

[tims4wins]

How has it worked out playing "tomato cans" in the divisional round the last couple seasons anyway? When they won 3 out of 4 they went through some great teams in round 2.

Also, this reminds me a ton of the 2011 Super Bowl in that the Giants had horrible metrics / rankings but were clearly a different team. There was one group of posters insisting their D sucked and another group saying their D was awesome. Hopefully this will be a different result.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I'm in the don't be a wuss crowd but not because I'm not afraid of Baltimore, losing to them would suck. But it's the playoffs and the games are not supposed to be easy, so whatever. If the Pats are finally going to win that third ring they are going to have to win three tough games, starting with the Ravens. We'd all love the games to be easier but it generally doesn't work that way.

Did we lose a ring somehow? 

 

[Dollar]

Did we lose a ring somehow? 

I think Putin has it now.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I think Putin has it now.

He didn't sell it on Ebay yet?

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Did we lose a ring somehow?

Sorry, fourth ring.

 

[j44thor]

I'm in the don't be a wuss crowd but not because I'm not afraid of Baltimore, losing to them would suck. But it's the playoffs and the games are not supposed to be easy, so whatever. If the Pats are finally going to win that third ring they are going to have to win three tough games, starting with the Ravens. We'd all love the games to be easier but it generally doesn't work that way.

Well as the number 1 seed the road should be easier than the #2 seed but would anyone not rather play ind instead of bal?

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Well as the number 1 seed the road should be easier than the #2 seed but would anyone not rather play ind instead of bal?

 
Sure, I'd rather play Indy but I don't think the difference is as stark as some are making it out to be.  And as pointed out above the Pats are at home in a matchup with the #2 seed.  
 
Would you trade places with Denver right now and have a home game against Indy and then most likely have to travel to Foxboro?  I sure as hell would not. If the Pats cannot win a home game against Baltimore for a chance to host the AFC title game then everyone on here who has Super Bowl aspirations for this team will have to admit that they were wrong.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

BAL looks better on paper than you'd expect given their lack of impressive wins.  
 
Offense:  8th in points for,  9th in DVOA, 6th in EPA
 
Defense:  6th in points against, 8th in DVOA, 8th in EPA
 
Special teams: 2nd by DVOA.
 
That's remarkably consistent.   Despite having a more obvious single weakness that the 2012 team (the secondary), there's some evidence that this version is superior.   

 

[Kliq]

Baltimore scares me for one reason: Their biggest strength is out biggest weakness. Dumervil and Suggs are legitimate and we really, really need a bounce back game for the tackles. If we cannot keep Brady upright, then we won't get the chance to exploit their weak secondary. Outside of that? I'm not afraid of anything their offense does. Let Flacco test Revis and Browner with the Smiths, and Justin Forsett doesn't really scare me for some reason. I don't think we need a lot of points to win one, but it would be really great if either Gray or Blount could get going early. If that happens, I think this game turns into a route.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

As much as I did not want the matchup with the Ravens, it does come with the consolation of having the Steelers season end in misery for good part of the fanbase. There is a fair contingent of Pit fans pissed that the Pats "stole" Blount who would have been real handy to have against the Ravens.  
 
Tough break.  Enjoy the offseason.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

You guys talk like we have a Swiss cheese OL, especially on the outside. Solder and Vollmer gave up a combined four sacks after Week 7. Solder has struggled at times but he's far from awful and certainly isn't overmatched against Suggs. Vollmer, who will match up on Dumervil, is one of the best pass blocking RTs in the league.

Honestly, we probably have better OTs than any other AFC playoff team.

 

[soxfan121]

You guys talk like we have a Swiss cheese OL, especially on the outside. Solder and Vollmer gave up a combined four sacks after Week 7. Solder has struggled at times but he's far from awful and certainly isn't overmatched against Suggs. Vollmer, who will match up on Dumervil, is one of the best pass blocking RTs in the league.

Honestly, we probably have better OTs than any other AFC playoff team.

 
I have thought a lot about starting a poll asking "which OL was better at protecting Brady, 2013 or 2014?" but I don't honestly want to know the results. 

 

[Captaincoop]

The only reason I would have rather seen Cincy or Indy come in next week is that Baltimore has come to New England twice and won playoff games. Some of their key guys, and their coach, already know they can win as underdogs in this environment. That is a powerful psychological benefit to have. It isn't going to win the game for them, but they are less likely to show up and have their wheels totally fall off.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
I have thought a lot about starting a poll asking "which OL was better at protecting Brady, 2013 or 2014?" but I don't honestly want to know the results. 

Imagine what people would be saying if we had the Ravens' tackle situation. Or Denver 's.

 

[Super Nomario]

You guys talk like we have a Swiss cheese OL, especially on the outside. Solder and Vollmer gave up a combined four sacks after Week 7. Solder has struggled at times but he's far from awful and certainly isn't overmatched against Suggs. Vollmer, who will match up on Dumervil, is one of the best pass blocking RTs in the league.

Honestly, we probably have better OTs than any other AFC playoff team.

Yeah, I'm probably  (as always) more worried about the interior, where the Pats are weaker, where Ngata and McPhee can generate rush, and where Brady (and most QBs) struggles more with pressure. The Ravens also blitz Mosley a fair amount.

 

[j44thor]

You guys talk like we have a Swiss cheese OL, especially on the outside. Solder and Vollmer gave up a combined four sacks after Week 7. Solder has struggled at times but he's far from awful and certainly isn't overmatched against Suggs. Vollmer, who will match up on Dumervil, is one of the best pass blocking RTs in the league.

Honestly, we probably have better OTs than any other AFC playoff team.

The key to Brady is pressure up the middle much more so than edges. Ngata, Canty, Upshaw et all can generate the interior pressure that gives Brady all kinds of trouble. Solder and Vollmer can have great games but it won't matter if the interior ol doesn't hold up.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Brady was kept clean against this Detroit defense that's killing Dallas. FWIW. Anything?

 

[j44thor]

They were playing exceptional at that point in the season but struggled mightily vs nyj and buf down the stretch.

The question is which version of ol shows up next Saturday, the one that dominated the middle part of the season or the mediocre version we saw early (mia/kc) and late.

 

[Super Nomario]

Brady was kept clean against this Detroit defense that's killing Dallas. FWIW. Anything?

They abandoned the run (20 rushes vs 53 passes) and didn't throw anything deep (only 3 attempts over 20 yards). I'd expect similar against Baltimore.

 

[Silverdude2167]

They were playing exceptional at that point in the season but struggled mightily vs nyj and buf down the stretch.

The question is which version of ol shows up next Saturday, the one that dominated the middle part of the season or the mediocre version we saw early (mia/kc) and late.

If Connolly played in those games you may have a point, but he did not. If he doesn't play vs. Balt I would be concerned, but using those games as any type of indicator is pointless, especially the Buffalo game.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Yeah, I'm probably  (as always) more worried about the interior, where the Pats are weaker, where Ngata and McPhee can generate rush, and where Brady (and most QBs) struggles more with pressure. The Ravens also blitz Mosley a fair amount.

Yeah, I'm more worried about this as well. But most of the talk has been about Suggs and Dumervil.

How is McPhee being used this year? I always thought of him as a DE/sub rusher on the line but he's listed everywhere as an OLB now.

 

[Shelterdog]

Yeah, I'm more worried about this as well. But most of the talk has been about Suggs and Dumervil.

How is McPhee being used this year? I always thought of him as a DE/sub rusher on the line but he's listed everywhere as an OLB now.

. They line him up all over the place but he's primarily on the line of scrimmage.

 

[Reverend]

They were playing exceptional at that point in the season but struggled mightily vs nyj and buf down the stretch.
The question is which version of ol shows up next Saturday, the one that dominated the middle part of the season or the mediocre version we saw early (mia/kc) and late.

If it's the one from earlier in the season, then that means that Stork got injured.

 

[EricFeczko]

They abandoned the run (20 rushes vs 53 passes) and didn't throw anything deep (only 3 attempts over 20 yards). I'd expect similar against Baltimore.

Yup. Baltimore isn't the defense it used to be. They don't generate four man pressure anymore and need to blitz to be effective because their secondary is not. Pats can/should counter with 3 and 7 step drops, quick slants, and screens depending on the nature of the blitz.
 
EDIT: That being said, Baltimore is one of the few balanced teams remaining in the playoffs, with an effective overall defense and offense in the second half. I expect a very close game.

 

[Super Nomario]

Yup. Baltimore isn't the defense it used to be. They don't generate four man pressure anymore and need to blitz to be effective because their secondary is not. Pats can/should counter with 3 and 7 step drops, quick slants, and screens depending on the nature of the blitz.
 
EDIT: That being said, Baltimore is one of the few balanced teams remaining in the playoffs, with an effective overall defense and offense in the second half. I expect a very close game.

Do you have a source for Baltimore blitzing a lot? PFF had them blitzing just 6 times against Pittsburgh, 7 times against Cleveland Week 17. They did blitz the Texans a good amount Week 16 (16/43 dropbacks), but just 9 times Week 15 against Jacksonville.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yup. Baltimore isn't the defense it used to be. They don't generate four man pressure anymore and need to blitz to be effective because their secondary is not. Pats can/should counter with 3 and 7 step drops, quick slants, and screens depending on the nature of the blitz.
 
EDIT: That being said, Baltimore is one of the few balanced teams remaining in the playoffs, with an effective overall defense and offense in the second half. I expect a very close game.

This is incorrect. Baltimore can definitely generate pressure with just four rushers, and once they establish their four-man pass rush, Pees can dial-up some exotic zone blitzes to try to get turnovers. If the Ravens can't get four-man pressure against NE, it's going to be a long day for them.

Yeah, I'm more worried about this as well. But most of the talk has been about Suggs and Dumervil.

How is McPhee being used this year? I always thought of him as a DE/sub rusher on the line but he's listed everywhere as an OLB now.

On obvious passing downs, McPhee lines up inside and is used to taking on (and beating) double-teams. He's been Incredibly valuable even though he doesn't have the sack numbers. see http://russellstreetreport.com/2014/12/30/tale-of-the-tape/pernell-mcphee-ravens-swiss-army-knife/

 

[Stitch01]

Yes, but the value of playing an AFCCG at Foxboro vs. Mile High far outweighs the difference between Balt and Ind.

Yeah exactly that, I think the difference between Indy and Baltimore is very marginal, a few percent, while homefield swings AFCCG equity by like 33%

 

[Stitch01]

They were playing exceptional at that point in the season but struggled mightily vs nyj and buf down the stretch.
The question is which version of ol shows up next Saturday, the one that dominated the middle part of the season or the mediocre version we saw early (mia/kc) and late.

The key to Brady is pressure up the middle much more so than edges. Ngata, Canty, Upshaw et all can generate the interior pressure that gives Brady all kinds of trouble. Solder and Vollmer can have great games but it won't matter if the interior ol doesn't hold up.

Brady has actually dealt really well with interior pressure this year when his tackles hold up, the interior wasn't playing that well even when the offense was clicking. If Solder and Vollmer play well it will take something really freaky for the Pats to lose.

 

[EricFeczko]

Do you have a source for Baltimore blitzing a lot? PFF had them blitzing just 6 times against Pittsburgh, 7 times against Cleveland Week 17. They did blitz the Texans a good amount Week 16 (16/43 dropbacks), but just 9 times Week 15 against Jacksonville.

Really? Then I'm wrong. I could've sworn I saw more than six blitzes against pittsburgh. I'd have to go back and watch the game again to be sure though.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Ngata and McPhee are scary but Brandon Williams is playing out of his mind right now. It's going to come down to the interior line. If the Ravens get pressure on the outside and Brady can step up in the pocket, he's going to shred them. If those DT's of the Ravens get pressure in the middle it's going to be ugly.

 

[ShaneTrot]

Ngata and McPhee are scary but Brandon Williams is playing out of his mind right now. It's going to come down to the interior line. If the Ravens get pressure on the outside and Brady can step up in the pocket, he's going to shred them. If those DT's of the Ravens get pressure in the middle it's going to be ugly.

Hightower, Siliga and Collins are playing out of their minds. NE has been very good against the run to end the season. NE has allowed 12 points total in the second halves of their last six games. This tells me that BB and Patricia figure out what you are trying to do and stop you. NE's defense is a level above what Baltimore has. I look forward to Jones, Ninkovich and Ayers against back-up tackles. 

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I'm as superstitious as anyone else, but the Pats should roll these clowns. They're not that good.