Pre-game thread: Divisional Round vs. Ravens

[Tony C]

That is the bottom-line -- they're not that good and their strengths don't really negate Pats' strengths. Yes, they have a very good DL/good rush, but Brady's strong suit is the short passing game that negates that. And I love how the Pats' secondary matches up with their WRs.

 

[Toe Nash]

The only reason I would have rather seen Cincy or Indy come in next week is that Baltimore has come to New England twice and won playoff games. Some of their key guys, and their coach, already know they can win as underdogs in this environment. That is a powerful psychological benefit to have. It isn't going to win the game for them, but they are less likely to show up and have their wheels totally fall off.

Sorry, this is garbage. If players and especially coaches don't think they can win every game they're in and gets psyched out, they don't belong the the NFL. It means nothing that some of the players won in Foxboro when both sides had a largely different group of players.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Sorry, this is garbage. If players and especially coaches don't think they can win every game they're in and gets psyched out, they don't belong the the NFL. It means nothing that some of the players won in Foxboro when both sides had a largely different group of players.

I think this is a bit of an overstatement.  When a team enjoys success against another team, that can help contribute to a certain level of confidence that can in turn lead to winning.
 
Had the Pats drawn the Colts, I would have liked the fact that the Patriots had whipped them in their prior meetings.  Had they drawn Cinci, I think the Sunday night game earlier this season would have been a plus.  Of course, neither would have been a cure all, as the 45-3 beatdown of the Jets and subsequent playoff loss in 2010 remind us.
 
On the flip side, that Harbaugh and some of his key players have won playoff games in Foxboro allows them to send the message to the rest of their squad that the Patriots are not in fact unbeatable at home in the playoffs, and that's a tool that they will undoubtedly use.
 
Things like talent level, coaching, match-ups and plain old luck will likely matter more on Sunday, but none of this is binary and any edge is just that, an edge that can be used in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

This is going to be a tough close game.
The difference in my opinion.
Special teams and the kicking game.
Ghost vs. Tucker.
This worries me.

 

[johnmd20]

This is going to be a tough close game.
The difference in my opinion.
Special teams and the kicking game.
Ghost vs. Tucker.
This worries me.

 
I don't understand.
What you're trying to say.
Are you saying Ghost is a problem?
Because he is not.

 

[C4CRVT]

I think he's saying.
That he's used to having.
An advantage in special teams.
But Baltimore's is better.

 

[C4CRVT]

DVOA- final year end ratings:
 
#4- NE (#2 Weighted) OFF #6, DEF #11, ST #5
#5- BAL (#5 weighted) OFF #9, DEF #8, ST #2
 
FWIW, all teams favored by weighted DVOA won this past weekend. The only difference between weighted and non weighted in match-ups was CAR/ARI.

 

[JimD]

Sorry, this is garbage. If players and especially coaches don't think they can win every game they're in and gets psyched out, they don't belong the the NFL. It means nothing that some of the players won in Foxboro when both sides had a largely different group of players.

 
My thoughts exactly.  All four teams that won this weekend are going to head into next week's games on a high, convinced that they're the ones headed to Arizona on February 1st.  Had it been the Colts, any thoughts about getting rolled by the Pats earlier would be quickly overwhelmed by the revenge factor.

 

[8slim]

God I want to beat these guys so freakin' bad.

Preferably while Suggs shatters his femur.

More insightful analysis to come.

 

[Hagios]

Sorry, this is garbage. If players and especially coaches don't think they can win every game they're in and gets psyched out, they don't belong the the NFL. It means nothing that some of the players won in Foxboro when both sides had a largely different group of players.

 
I don't think that's true. NFL players are human beings and human psychology definitely plays a role. Teams get up for big games and get caught sleeping for easy games. Teams sometimes quit on a lame duck coach and get blown out in the last few games of a season - but sometimes they fight for a lame duck coach (like Rex Ryan). Some receivers start getting alligator arms against a physical secondary. In the "Things about football that you only recently learned" there were some interesting quotes from players about how the fake spike by the Dolphins demoralized the team. So I think it's pretty clear that the best of the best - pro football players - are not automatically able to rise to the occasion and give 100%.
 
The more interesting question is whether or not getting psyched up for a game and believing that you can win makes a difference in the outcome. In a sport like baseball I'd say no, but I suspect the NFL is different.

 

[ivanvamp]

My preview, for whatever it's worth...
 
Team Rankings:
- Bal:  Offense - #8 points, #12 yards; Defense - #6 points, #8 yards
- NE:  Offense - #4 points, #11 yards; Defense - #8 points, #13 yards
 
Right off the bat, that seems like a very even matchup.  Let's get a little deeper.
 
When Baltimore has the ball….
The Ravens' passer rating is 91.0, good for 14th in the NFL.  3819 yards, 27 td, 12 int.  They've yielded just 19 sacks.  Flacco likes to stand back there and throw it deep.  55 of his 554 pass attempts (10%) have been thrown 21 yards or more downfield.  By contrast, Brady has thrown 48 of his 582 passes 21 yards or more downfield (8.2%).  Baltimore has 4 primary receiving threats:
 
- Steve Smith:  122 targets, 79 rec, 1065 yds, 13.5 ypc, 6 td
- Torrey Smith:  85 targets, 49 rec, 767 yds, 15.7 ypc, 11 td
- Owen Daniels:  74 targets, 48 rec, 527 yds, 11.0 ypc, 4 td
- Justin Forsett:  55 targets, 44 rec, 263 yds, 6.0 ypc, 0 td
 
Fortunately, the Patriots are loaded with cover guys this year.  The Pats' pass defense is holding opposing QBs to just an 84.0 passer rating, good for 8th in the NFL.  Revis is turning opposing QBs into Ryan Lindley.  Browner is solid.  McCourty cleans everything up deep.  They very much have the defensive weapons to slow Baltimore's passing attack down.  The concern is with Flacco's chuck-it-deep-and-get-a-pass-interference-penalty strategy.  I fear that Browner will get one or two key ones that will turn into big chunks of yardage or come on key third downs that will help Baltimore sustain drives.  I don't think that's an unfounded fear.  It's not hard for any of us to picture that scenario happening.  And I don't see the Patriots' pass rush getting to Flacco too often, so it'll come down to the cover guys.  
 
When Baltimore turns to the running game, they have a good one.  They finished 8th in the league with 126.2 yards per game, and 7th in the league with a 4.5 yards per carry average.  Forsett is very good.  Pearce is solid.  Their running game should be a lot to handle.  New England tends to be pretty stout against the run, finishing 9th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, at 104.3 per game, and also 9th in terms of rushing yards per carry allowed, at 4.0.  So I think they're well-equipped to slow Baltimore's running game down.  
 
Long story short, I see Baltimore having a hard time scoring points from their offense.  This is the best Patriots' defense the Ravens have seen in over a decade.  They will not simply run over the Patriots.  They will not simply march down the field on them.  They may score some, but it will be limited and they'll have to catch some breaks.
 
When New England has the ball...
The Patriots had the highest scoring offense until they chose not to play the last game of the year, so the scoring offense ranking is a tad misleading.  The passing game was once again elite.  They finished 9th in passing yards per game (258), and Brady's passer rating was a sparkling 97.4.  He had 33 td and just 9 interceptions.  He does a great job taking care of the ball.  His weakness is throwing deep, but given the Raven's pass rush, I don't see them trying that too often anyway.  They'll focus on short drops, quick-hitters, and screens to combat the Ravens' talented pass rush.  I also see them running up-tempo more often, trying to catch Baltimore in unfavorable matchups (favorable for the Pats) that they'll want to exploit.  
 
In terms of receivers, the Pats' receiving corps should be fully healthy.  Edelman, LaFell, Gronkowski, Wright, Amendola, and Vereen all pose matchup problems for the Ravens.  If Brady has time to throw, he should be able to pick Baltimore apart.  Baltimore finished 19th in the league in opposing QB passer rating (90.6), so there's no reason, if Brady has time, that the Pats shouldn't be able to move the ball in the air consistently against Baltimore.  
 
When they decide to run, things will get markedly more difficult for the Patriots.  Baltimore finished 4th in the league in rushing yards allowed (just 88.3 per game) and 3rd in rush yards allowed per attempt (just 3.6).  So they are very tough to run on.  And the Patriots have a modestly effective, but not spectacular, running game - finishing 19th in yards per game (107.9) and 22nd in yards per attempt (3.9).  So don't expect them to move the ball that well on the ground against the Ravens.  This will be decided by how good the Patriots' passing game is.
 
And THAT probably will be decided by the protection up front.  And this is an area of major concern for New England.  Let's talk about the Ravens' pass rush first.  Suggs (12.0) and Dumervil (17.0) are tremendous off the edges.  And Ngata is a force in the middle.  McPhee had 7.5 sacks and Jernigan had 4.0 as well.  They can bring pressure.  They finished 3rd in the NFL in sacks this year with 49.  They had 5 sacks and 5 QB hits against Pittsburgh this weekend.  
 
Now what about the Patriots' pass protection?  Overall this year it was solid, as they finished 4th in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed, with 26.  But that number doesn't really tell the whole story, or why this is an area of concern.  The first four games of the year, the Patriots' offensive line was a work in progress.  Injuries, trying new players, etc.  And the last two games of the year they were missing key OL with injuries.  So in those six games, they didn't have their optimal offensive line.  And in those six games they allowed 18 sacks and 35 QB hits (3.0 and 5.8 per game, respectively).  In the 10 games where they had their optimal offensive line (Solder, Connelly, Stork, Wendell, Vollmer), they allowed just 8 sacks and 49 QB hits (0.8 and 4.9, respectively).  So a HUGE key in this game will be whether the Patriots have their optimal offensive line unit out there.  If they do, I will feel much better about the pass protection.  If they don't, then I will worry.
 
If Brady doesn't have time, he may make mistakes.  We've seen it before, especially recently in playoff games.  Mistakes, turnovers, missing receivers, being pressured and hit = offensive problems for the Patriots.  I fear a strip sack or a pick-six that will greatly aid Baltimore's offense considerably.  This is not an unfounded fear.  It's happened before, and I could easily see this happening again.  If the Pats' OL is fully healthy and ready to go, then I will worry less about it.
 
Special Teams...
This is one area where the Pats tend to have a clear advantage over their opponents.  Great coverage units, excellent return units (, the best kicker in the game, and a very good punter.  Baltimore, however, also has some special teams strengths.  They are third in the NFL in punting average (47.4) and 2nd in net punting (44.6).  Their punt coverage unit finished 9th in the league with a 7.2 average allowed.  And their kickoff coverage was better than average as well, finishing 14th, allowing 23.1 yards per return.  But their kicker is a problem.  Tucker finished 15th in the NFL in FG%, converting 85.3% of his kicks.  Meanwhile, Gostkowski made 94.6% of his kicks (2nd in the NFL).  So clear edge to New England there.
 
The Patriots seemingly get at least one big play from their special teams every game - be it a big kick or punt return, or a block of some sort.  While they have an edge there, I don't think you can count on a big special teams play.  Consider it a nice bonus, one that can turn a game, but you can't bank on it happening.  However, it's more likely that New England gets a big play from the special teams than does Baltimore.
 
Coaching and Intangibles...
I think we'd all say the coaching edge goes to New England, but John Harbaugh is a quality coach who knows how to win, and in a one-game scenario I do not think he will necessarily be out-coached by Belichick.  Moreover, and this will be said a million times between now and Saturday, the Ravens will *not* be intimidated or scared coming into Foxboro.  They've won two big playoff games in New England in recent years, and the one they lost they easily could have won.  They will relish this opportunity to come in here.  I expect their very best.
 
That said, the Patriots absolutely wrecked the Ravens last year in Baltimore, 41-7.  They have their best defense in a decade.  They have their key offensive skill guys healthy (Gronk, Edelman, Blount).  If their OL is healthy, I think the Patriots will put up points at home against Baltimore.  And I think they will be able to slow the Ravens down.
 
That said, I don't think it will be as easy as it seems to be.  The game will likely be a real meat grinder.  A bad turnover, a key penalty, the bounce of a football….all those things could conspire against the Patriots on Saturday.  I expect a close, white-knuckle kind of game.  The Patriots are without question the better football team, and they're rested, and they're home.  Those are major advantages.  They *should* win the game.  And I think they will.  But it will not be easy.
 
I think NE wins the game something like 23-20 or 27-24.  

 

[loshjott]

 
I don't think that's true. NFL players are human beings and human psychology definitely plays a role. Teams get up for big games and get caught sleeping for easy games. Teams sometimes quit on a lame duck coach and get blown out in the last few games of a season - but sometimes they fight for a lame duck coach (like Rex Ryan). Some receivers start getting alligator arms against a physical secondary. In the "Things about football that you only recently learned" there were some interesting quotes from players about how the fake spike by the Dolphins demoralized the team. So I think it's pretty clear that the best of the best - pro football players - are not automatically able to rise to the occasion and give 100%.
 
The more interesting question is whether or not getting psyched up for a game and believing that you can win makes a difference in the outcome. In a sport like baseball I'd say no, but I suspect the NFL is different.

 
This is so true.  That's why Jon Gruden's recent statement about how NFL players shouldn't need motivation was garbage.
 
There are ample stories about BB's motivational tactics before big games. His tweaking of Marcus Pollard's "might as well hand us the f'ing rings" quote back in 2003 or 04 is one example.

 

[Marciano490]

I'm not worried about the Pats.  They play better pissed off, and you know that everyone is focused on losing at home to the Ravens two years ago.  Plus, those idiots will talk about their ability to handle the Pats in the playoffs on the road and that'll only forge the focus.  Come on guys, you really think this team is going to get knocked out of the playoffs twice at home to the damn Ravens when we're trotting out the better squad?

 

[ShaneTrot]

We are afraid of a team that lost twice to the Bengals,  and lost to the Texans, Colts and Chargers? If you were a Ravens fan wouldn't you be thinking the last time we played the Pats (2013!), they blasted us 41-7 in our own building without Gronk. NE rushed for 142 yards in that game. It's the playoffs and everybody is good but c'mon. A healthy roster, and the additions of guys like Revis and Browner, make the Pats a prohibitive favorite in this  game. The AFC North was a paper-tiger division this year.

 

[Shelterdog]

I think this is a bit of an overstatement.  When a team enjoys success against another team, that can help contribute to a certain level of confidence that can in turn lead to winning.
 
Had the Pats drawn the Colts, I would have liked the fact that the Patriots had whipped them in their prior meetings.  Had they drawn Cinci, I think the Sunday night game earlier this season would have been a plus.  Of course, neither would have been a cure all, as the 45-3 beatdown of the Jets and subsequent playoff loss in 2010 remind us.
 
On the flip side, that Harbaugh and some of his key players have won playoff games in Foxboro allows them to send the message to the rest of their squad that the Patriots are not in fact unbeatable at home in the playoffs, and that's a tool that they will undoubtedly use.
 
Things like talent level, coaching, match-ups and plain old luck will likely matter more on Sunday, but none of this is binary and any edge is just that, an edge that can be used in the grand scheme of things.

 
Does it actually matter though? I'm just hard pressed to believe that C.J. Mosley and Jeremy Zuttah are going to play any better because Terrell a.k.a. T-Sizzle a.k.a. Lurtz a.k.a. Hacksaw a.k.a. "I poured bleach on my girlfriend and kid and also broke her nose by kicking her in the face and also dragged her alongside a moving car but no one cares because I give good quotes so ESPN and NFL Network have been praising me for years and giving me a platform to say my macho bullshit" Suggs has won some games against the Pats.
 
Motivation matters and all but any team the Pats were going to play this week was going to be confident, coming off of a win, and highly motivated.

 

[Stitch01]

I don't really get the extra fear of Browner penalties this week.  For better or worse dude extends two drives a week with penalties and the coaching staff seems pretty OK with the tradeoff, team has given up 18.7 points a game since he returned.
 
EDIT: although that pales in comparison to being worried about freaking Ghost being able to do his part which might be the dumbest thing someone with opposable thumbs has ever typed.  Guess hitting 96% of his kicks and being near the top of the league in kickoff value isn't cutting it these days.

 

[86spike]

 
I don't think that's true. NFL players are human beings and human psychology definitely plays a role. Teams get up for big games and get caught sleeping for easy games. Teams sometimes quit on a lame duck coach and get blown out in the last few games of a season - but sometimes they fight for a lame duck coach (like Rex Ryan). Some receivers start getting alligator arms against a physical secondary. In the "Things about football that you only recently learned" there were some interesting quotes from players about how the fake spike by the Dolphins demoralized the team. So I think it's pretty clear that the best of the best - pro football players - are not automatically able to rise to the occasion and give 100%.
 
The more interesting question is whether or not getting psyched up for a game and believing that you can win makes a difference in the outcome. In a sport like baseball I'd say no, but I suspect the NFL is different.

 
Psychology is absolutely a huge part of the games this time of year.  
 
Yes, every team and player and coach should be confident, motivated and psyched up to play but they also spend a week preparing for an opponent focusing not only on the things that they need to do to win, but the things that they need to avoid.  They get 7 days of "Don't let Brady do this" and "If they move Gronk here, look out for XYZ" and "If they show blitz, shift to a screen or they will kill Flacco" and so on.  There are tons of negative scenarios that they go over again and again all week.  All teams must prepare this way.
 
So when the game starts, that preparation kicks in.  If things go wrong, some teams have trouble collecting themselves and adjusting.  The psychology of it all becomes an issue.  IMO, if there is one hallmark of the BB Era Patriots, it's a drive to knock opponents out of their comfort zones and force them to regroup on the fly.  Some teams (like Baltimore) have a track record of being capable of absorbing it and adjusting.  Harbaugh, for as much of a blowhard dick as he is, is very good at keeping his team from panicking and being able to adjust.
 
Indy and Cinci both strike me as teams that can get knocked off their gameplan and then they crumble and never recover.  Their players and coaches are susceptible to getting psyched out (look at the way Indy dissolved against Dallas in Week 16 when things went wrong early).  Denver under Manning these last 3 years also has a track record of struggling on the road (not so much at home) when the gameplan crumbles.  It's my opinion that Manning is such a control freak that when the prepared gameplan doesn't work he gets inside his own head and struggles to adjust.  When he plays in Foxboro and BB's schemes disrupt his planned attack, he has a very hard time changing course and become susceptible to fuck-ups.  When he's at home, he does a better job of adjusting... I think crowd noise when he's calling plays fucks with his head immensely (see the Super Bowl shitshow as another prime example of this failing of his).
 
But Baltimore, more than any of the other AFC teams left (I would have put Pitt in the same camp as the Ravens in this respect, BTW), does a good job of not letting BB's disruptions fuck with their heads.
 
That's the dynamic at play.  It's not about a lack of confidence or motivation.  It's about an ability to go into Foxboro and roll with BB's punches.  Most teams can't do it which is why the Pats win so much at home.
 
All that said, I still think NE wins on Saturday, but the Ravens have a better shot at an upset than I think any of the other AFC teams would have due to their ability to not get shaken when BB does his thing.

 

[Shelterdog]

 
Psychology is absolutely a huge part of the games this time of year.  
 
Yes, every team and player and coach should be confident, motivated and psyched up to play but they also spend a week preparing for an opponent focusing not only on the things that they need to do to win, but the things that they need to avoid.  They get 7 days of "Don't let Brady do this" and "If they move Gronk here, look out for XYZ" and "If they show blitz, shift to a screen or they will kill Flacco" and so on.  There are tons of negative scenarios that they go over again and again all week.  All teams must prepare this way.
 
So when the game starts, that preparation kicks in.  If things go wrong, some teams have trouble collecting themselves and adjusting.  The psychology of it all becomes an issue.  IMO, if there is one hallmark of the BB Era Patriots, it's a drive to knock opponents out of their comfort zones and force them to regroup on the fly.  Some teams (like Baltimore) have a track record of being capable of absorbing it and adjusting.  Harbaugh, for as much of a blowhard dick as he is, is very good at keeping his team from panicking and being able to adjust.
 
Indy and Cinci both strike me as teams that can get knocked off their gameplan and then they crumble and never recover.  Their players and coaches are susceptible to getting psyched out (look at the way Indy dissolved against Dallas in Week 16 when things went wrong early).  Denver under Manning these last 3 years also has a track record of struggling on the road (not so much at home) when the gameplan crumbles.  It's my opinion that Manning is such a control freak that when the prepared gameplan doesn't work he gets inside his own head and struggles to adjust.  When he plays in Foxboro and BB's schemes disrupt his planned attack, he has a very hard time changing course and become susceptible to fuck-ups.  When he's at home, he does a better job of adjusting... I think crowd noise when he's calling plays fucks with his head immensely (see the Super Bowl shitshow as another prime example of this failing of his).
 
But Baltimore, more than any of the other AFC teams left (I would have put Pitt in the same camp as the Ravens in this respect, BTW), does a good job of not letting BB's disruptions fuck with their heads.
 
That's the dynamic at play.  It's not about a lack of confidence or motivation.  It's about an ability to go into Foxboro and roll with BB's punches.  Most teams can't do it which is why the Pats win so much at home.
 
All that said, I still think NE wins on Saturday, but the Ravens have a better shot at an upset than I think any of the other AFC teams would have due to their ability to not get shaken when BB does his thing.

 
We all agree, I think, that being smart, mentally tough, and adaptable are important traits.  I also think the Ray Lewis/Ed Reed/Anquan Boldin teams were smart, tough, etc.  What I'm not so sure about is whether the 2014 Ravens are that kind of a tenacious team or not.  Their late season results of shitty performances in big spots frankly suggest that they are not.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

We are afraid of a team that lost twice to the Bengals,  and lost to the Texans, Colts and Chargers? If you were a Ravens fan wouldn't you be thinking the last time we played the Pats (2013!), they blasted us 41-7 in our own building without Gronk. NE rushed for 142 yards in that game. It's the playoffs and everybody is good but c'mon. A healthy roster, and the additions of guys like Revis and Browner, make the Pats a prohibitive favorite in this  game. The AFC North was a paper-tiger division this year.

 
As for the bolded part, I've said this before, but the Ravens were a completely different team last year.  Their OL was historically bad; they were overmatched at WR; and they had gotten (up to that point) almost nothing out of their draft. The Ravens lacked difference makers last year, and they were lucky to end up 8-8.  So no, I doubt the Ravens give last year's game a second thought.
 
One thing people didn't realize in the days leading up to the 2012 playoff game was that the Ravens really solidified their OL when they moved McKinnie into the starting lineup at LT and moved Oher from LT to RT.  When Flacco gets ample time and space he can be an extremely effective QB.  When he does not - see this year's HOU game or the IND game, he tends to be extremely uneffective. 
 
This year is the opposite.  From the Ravens perspective, they are extremely fortunate to be able to have a guy like Yanda who can move out and play a pretty good RT and that Hurst (who was trending to be a higher round draft choice before he broke his leg) agreed to sign with the Ravens as a UDFA.  Still, if the Ravens can't dominate the LOS on both sides of the ball, it's going to be a long day for them.

 

[Ed Hillel]

This is going to be a tough close game.
The difference in my opinion.
Special teams and the kicking game.
Ghost vs. Tucker.
This worries me.

Uh oh, RR is worried, might as well pack it in and call it a day.

We are afraid of a team that lost twice to the Bengals, and lost to the Texans, Colts and Chargers? If you were a Ravens fan wouldn't you be thinking the last time we played the Pats (2013!), they blasted us 41-7 in our own building without Gronk. NE rushed for 142 yards in that game. It's the playoffs and everybody is good but c'mon. A healthy roster, and the additions of guys like Revis and Browner, make the Pats a prohibitive favorite in this game. The AFC North was a paper-tiger division this year.

Correct.

That's the dynamic at play. It's not about a lack of confidence or motivation. It's about an ability to go into Foxboro and roll with BB's punches. Most teams can't do it which is why the Pats win so much at home.

 
I think that's part of it, but a lot of the Pats playoff issues over the past 7 years or so has been that they've generally had pretty shitty defenses, particularly in the secondary. It's no coincidence that Flacco wasn't moving the ball at all in 2012 when the game started, and then all of a sudden started marching the Ravens down the field when Marquis Cole was left to cover Boldin. Brady has also been stuck throwing to mediocre receiving corps with the Gronk/Welker injuries, and those old Ravens had much better secondaries than they do on the field right now. The Ravens DL may cause a few problems this weekend, and may even create a turnover or two, but outside of that, I think the Patriots should dominate. The difference between this year and those other years is the talent discrepancy. In 2009, I think the Ravens were flat out better than the Pats with Welker gone, and in 2012 you could possibly have said the same with Gronk out. They were at least pretty close. This year, the Patriots have a significant advantage in talent. This is the best Pats team since 2007.

 

[Stitch01]

I don't think either the offense or defense has played a good game in any of the playoff losses with the possible exception of the defense in the '07 Super Bowl.  Plenty of blame to go around.   

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

We are afraid of a team that lost twice to the Bengals,  and lost to the Texans, Colts and Chargers? If you were a Ravens fan wouldn't you be thinking the last time we played the Pats (2013!), they blasted us 41-7 in our own building without Gronk. NE rushed for 142 yards in that game. It's the playoffs and everybody is good but c'mon. A healthy roster, and the additions of guys like Revis and Browner, make the Pats a prohibitive favorite in this  game. The AFC North was a paper-tiger division this year.

The Ravens beat only one team with a winning record all year....Pittsburgh.
 
Their wins were over:
Pittsburgh (2) 11-5
Cleveland (2) 7-9
Carolina 7-9
Tampa 3-13
Atlanta 6-10
Tennessee 2-14
New Orleans 7-9
Jacksonville 3-13

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Ravens beat only one team with a winning record all year....Pittsburgh.
 
Their wins were over:
Pittsburgh (2) 11-5
Cleveland (2) 7-9
Carolina 7-9
Tampa 3-13
Atlanta 6-10
Tennessee 2-14
New Orleans 7-9
Jacksonville 3-13

Yup, been beating this into people since last week.  They have beaten exactly 1 team with a winning record, yet people are "afraid" of and "fear" this Ravens team.  They have a great front seven, but what else do they have that the Patriots can't handle?

 

[Stitch01]

Nothing, that's pretty much the whole ballgame. If the front seven doesn't ruin the New England passing game the Ravens will need some really fluky happenings to pull it out.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

I don't think either the offense or defense has played a good game in any of the playoff losses with the possible exception of the defense in the '07 Super Bowl.  Plenty of blame to go around.   

 
Agreed, the Denver game last year was a great example of both sides letting the team down.  The offense didn't do much, but they also didn't get many chances because the defense couldn't get off the field.  After forcing a punt on Denver's first drive, Denver went FG-TD-FG-TD-FG-FG-kneel.  NE only got the ball 3 times in the entire second half, scoring 2 TDs and turning the ball over on downs after a decent drive.

 

[Curt S Loew]

The Ravens beat only one team with a winning record all year....Pittsburgh.
 
Their wins were over:
Pittsburgh (2) 11-5
Cleveland (2) 7-9
Carolina 7-9
Tampa 3-13
Atlanta 6-10
Tennessee 2-14
New Orleans 7-9
Jacksonville 3-13

Only one win against PITT during the regular season.  You missed the Miami win, but your point stands.

 

[8slim]

Who is "afraid"?  What a weird feeling to ascribe to people.
 
I think it's fine to acknowledge the strengths and weaknesses of each team, and note where their strengths might create an advantage.  Especially when a strength is matched up against what might be our biggest weakness (note the use of "might be").

 

[RedOctober3829]

Who is "afraid"?  What a weird feeling to ascribe to people.
 
I think it's fine to acknowledge the strengths and weaknesses of each team, and note where their strengths might create an advantage.  Especially when a strength is matched up against what might be our biggest weakness (note the use of "might be").

Countless posts here of not wanting to face the Ravens.  Where was this kind of consternation when they faced a Denver front seven earlier in the year?

 

[Silverdude2167]

Yup, been beating this into people since last week.  They have beaten exactly 1 team with a winning record, yet people are "afraid" of and "fear" this Ravens team.  They have a great front seven, but what else do they have that the Patriots can't handle?

I am not even a that impressed with their front 7. For all the talk about their amazing pass rush take out four games (Atlanta, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay) and they had 26 sacks is 12 games ~2.1 sacks a game. Expand that out over 16 games and they would have 35 sacks which would place them at 24th in the league.
 
This team beat up on some of the worst teams in the league and struggled against everyone else. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I don't think the 2012 playoff game really matters at all but, just for the record, a lot of people exaggerate the degree to which our offense struggled in that game.  It was a weird game in that we had quite a bit of success on offense in some respects, but the distribution of those successes was really unfavorable plus we had a bunch of flukey things go against us.  We had 12 drives in that game and gained over 30 yards on nine of them, which is actually really good (428 yards of total offense).  But twice we were stopped around the Baltimore 35 and ended up punting, once we had the ball inside the 10 and had to kick a FG because time was running out in the first half, then in the second half we had the Ridley concussion fumble and then turned the ball over three more times (once on downs) inside the Baltimore red zone.  All credit to them for making plays at key junctures and we obviously only scored 13 points.  But its not like our offense went out and got dominated, with a succession of 3 and outs.  A few things go our way and we score 30 in that game.
 
My guess with respect to this game is that we see a lot of 12 personnel with Wright/Gronk as the TE pairing, playing relatively up tempo.  That's the personnel grouping that ended up having a lot of success in the second half of the Jets game.  Having a TE on either side of the line adds a little solidity and gives more options in terms of blocking schemes and I think that package has been the toughest for opponents to match up against as they're often really caught between going base and going nickel.  Keep those guys out on the field and play fast enough that Baltimore has to choose between base and nickel at the beginning of the drive and can't sub guys like Upshaw and McPhee into the game in obvious passing situations.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Damn, Baltimore had a weak schedule (especially if you consider that Pitt and Cincy's records were inflated due to their easy schedules).

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

I don't really get the extra fear of Browner penalties this week.  For better or worse dude extends two drives a week with penalties and the coaching staff seems pretty OK with the tradeoff, team has given up 18.7 points a game since he returned.
 
EDIT: although that pales in comparison to being worried about freaking Ghost being able to do his part which might be the dumbest thing someone with opposable thumbs has ever typed.  Guess hitting 96% of his kicks and being near the top of the league in kickoff value isn't cutting it these days.

Ghost needs to play the game of his life!

 

[8slim]

Countless posts here of not wanting to face the Ravens.  Where was this kind of consternation when they faced a Denver front seven earlier in the year?

 
Not wanting to play someone is different than being "afraid" though, right?
 
I'd have preferred to play Indy or Cincy, because I know we can kill them.

 

[Stitch01]

The offense wasn't bad in that 2012 playoff game, but I wouldn't say they played well or were a victim of fluky plays, it was much more self-inflicted wounds and failed execution.  BB had an uncharacteristic off day too with the terrible decisions to punt from the Raven 40 and his contribution to the clock fuck up at the end of the half.  Certainly wasn't a dominating performance by the Raven defense though.
 
EDIT: There is obviously nothing wrong with wanting to play a different team than the Ravens (although I think talk that we for sure would beat Indy or the Bengals but now have a much more difficult challenge are overblown, the difference in win expectancy is probably something like 3%) or talking about the unfavorable matchup with the Ravens front seven, but the posts that indicate this game is a toss up or the Pats will be lucky to score 20 points and win an ugly game or that the Pats likely need an extraordinary performance from Brady to win are just seeing ghosts where they don't exist.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

The offense wasn't bad in that 2012 playoff game, but I wouldn't say they played well or were a victim of fluky plays, it was much more self-inflicted wounds and failed execution.  BB had an uncharacteristic off day too with the terrible decisions to punt from the Raven 40 and his contribution to the clock fuck up at the end of the half.  Certainly wasn't a dominating performance by the Raven defense though.

 
I never said they played particularly well, just that they didn't get dominated by any means.  There were certainly some self-inflicted wounds. 

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah didn't mean to put words in your mouth and agree with your general point, it wasn't like the Ravens dominated that game on defense, just don't think it was fluky as much as just a poor job planning and executing (at least for the first 40 minutes or so, had some bad breaks later in the game when the Ravens were already in control).   Really didn't like that they didn't go hurry up more in that game with that offense against an older Ravens defense and didn't like the way they abandoned short yardage runs after the first Ridley fail early in the game (and thought these were linked, would have been easier to run in the second half if they had played at a faster pace earlier). 

 

[Toe Nash]

 
This is so true.  That's why Jon Gruden's recent statement about how NFL players shouldn't need motivation was garbage.
 
There are ample stories about BB's motivational tactics before big games. His tweaking of Marcus Pollard's "might as well hand us the f'ing rings" quote back in 2003 or 04 is one example.

Jesus H Christ.
 
Yes people can get motivated or demotivated.
 
But being in the playoffs should be enough motivation for anyone. Most importantly, having a few guys who won a game two years ago (Just six of the Ravens starters are still on the team, by my count) doesn't mean they have some secret to getting motivated in Foxboro or not.
 
If the Colts or Bengals came to NE they would be motivated too.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Some recent-history DVOA numbers to chew on...
 
Weighted DVOA (Off / Def / ST), Ranks:
 
2014 Patriots: 31.4% (13.6% / -3.4% / 5.5%), #2 (#6 / #11 / #5)
2014 Ravens: 23.0% (9.7% / -4.6% / 8.0%), #5 (#9 / #8 / #2)
 
2013 Patriots: 24.4% (16.4% / 4.2% / 6.7%), #5 (#4 / #20! / #2)
2013 Ravens: -4.3% (-21.7%! / -8.7% / 6.3%), #18 (#30! / #7 / #3)
 
2012 Patriots: 37.6% (30.8% / 1.4% / 5.5%), #3 (#1 / #15 / #4)
2012 Ravens: 8.3% (3.0% / 2.2% / 9.0%), #11 (#13 / #19 / #1)
 
In other words, last year our defense was bad, but their offense was terrible.  We had an enormous overall DVOA advantage.  It's no surprise we blew them out.  Whereas, in 2012, their offense was a little above average, their defense outperformed their season averages in the playoffs, and it was a closer matchup on paper.  And their special teams have always been league-leading, which is surprising to me and something I'd like to see ChuckZ break down for us.  But regardless, this years' Ravens are, statistically, far superior to the 2012 team that won the super bowl, and are much closer to an equal match with the Pats than they were back then.  A loss on Saturday would be less of an upset than the 2012 loss was, frankly.

 

[Shelterdog]

In the "holy heck NFL rosters turn over a bunch".  Only 6 of the Ravens' 22 starters from 2012 (4 on offense, 2 on defense) will play Saturday, and only 11 of the 33 players who suited up on offense or defense.  It's not too different for the pats--10 of the 22 2012 starters (6 on offense, 4 on defense) will play Saturday and only 16 of the 37 players who played offense or defense.  There are a couple of other players on both teams but not on the roster due to injury one of the years (Jimmy Smith, Gronk, Edelman, Mayo, Ridley).
 
So over a two year period you see two of the best teams in roster churn 50-75% of their starters. 
 
EDIT: The 2012 DVOA numbers are pretty misleading because (1) Gronk got hurt and (2) Suggs, Lewis, Ellerbe, and Corey Graham were healthy in the playoffs after missing chunks (sometimes big chunks) of the regular season. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

To be fair to Ridley, I wouldn't call that fumble of his "self-inflicted."
 

A loss on Saturday would be less of an upset than the 2012 loss was, frankly.

 
DVOA is interesting and all, but I don't think you can look at the rosters and schedules and say this with a straight face, especially when you factor in Talib's boo boo and Gronk being out.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

In the "holy heck NFL rosters turn over a bunch".  Only 6 of the Ravens' 22 starters from 2012 (4 on offense, 2 on defense) will play Saturday, and only 11 of the 33 players who suited up on offense or defense.  It's not too different for the pats--10 of the 22 2012 starters (6 on offense, 4 on defense) will play Saturday and only 16 of the 37 players who played offense or defense.  There are a couple of other players on both teams but not on the roster due to injury one of the years (Jimmy Smith, Gronk, Edelman, Mayo, Ridley).
 
So over a two year period you see two of the best teams in roster churn 50-75% of their starters. 

 
It's really a testament to the two front offices that they have been able to turn over their teams and still remain in playoff/Super Bowl contention.  Of course, neither team had to turn over its QB, which is another example of how important it is to have a QB that can win championship.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Some recent-history DVOA numbers to chew on...
 
Weighted DVOA (Off / Def / ST), Ranks:
 
2014 Patriots: 31.4% (13.6% / -3.4% / 5.5%), #2 (#6 / #11 / #5)
2014 Ravens: 23.0% (9.7% / -4.6% / 8.0%), #5 (#9 / #8 / #2)
 
2013 Patriots: 24.4% (16.4% / 4.2% / 6.7%), #5 (#4 / #20! / #2)
2013 Ravens: -4.3% (-21.7%! / -8.7% / 6.3%), #18 (#30! / #7 / #3)
 
2012 Patriots: 37.6% (30.8% / 1.4% / 5.5%), #3 (#1 / #15 / #4)
2012 Ravens: 8.3% (3.0% / 2.2% / 9.0%), #11 (#13 / #19 / #1)
 
In other words, last year our defense was bad, but their offense was terrible.  We had an enormous overall DVOA advantage.  It's no surprise we blew them out.  Whereas, in 2012, their offense was a little above average, their defense outperformed their season averages in the playoffs, and it was a closer matchup on paper.  And their special teams have always been league-leading, which is surprising to me and something I'd like to see ChuckZ break down for us.  But regardless, this years' Ravens are, statistically, far superior to the 2012 team that won the super bowl, and are much closer to an equal match with the Pats than they were back then.  A loss on Saturday would be less of an upset than the 2012 loss was, frankly.

In my completely ill-equipped opinion to question DVOA, DVOA has been far to high on the Ravens all year. DVOA seems to have given them far to much credit for beating up on the sisters of the poor. The system loves blowouts and they got them from the Ravens.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Re: The performance of the defense in the last four playoff losses, Nomario and others around here have often pointed out that they performed significantly worse than the points allowed suggests. As one representative data point, here are the opposing QB ratings and points allowed in those losses:

2011 Sanchez 127.3/28 points

2012 Manning 103.7/21 points

2013 Flacco 106.2/28 points

2014 Manning 118.4/26 points

Yikes! Plenty of blame to go around. On the bright side, this defense is substantially better than any of those previous incarnations, and about as healthy as it's been all year.

 

[Granite Sox]

... <snip>  Fortunately, the Patriots are loaded with cover guys this year.  The Pats' pass defense is holding opposing QBs to just an 84.0 passer rating, good for 8th in the NFL.  Revis is turning opposing QBs into Ryan Lindley.  Browner is solid.  McCourty cleans everything up deep.  They very much have the defensive weapons to slow Baltimore's passing attack down.  The concern is with Flacco's chuck-it-deep-and-get-a-pass-interference-penalty strategy.  I fear that Browner will get one or two key ones that will turn into big chunks of yardage or come on key third downs that will help Baltimore sustain drives.  I don't think that's an unfounded fear.  It's not hard for any of us to picture that scenario happening.  And I don't see the Patriots' pass rush getting to Flacco too often, so it'll come down to the cover guys....

 
 

I don't really get the extra fear of Browner penalties this week.  For better or worse dude extends two drives a week with penalties and the coaching staff seems pretty OK with the tradeoff, team has given up 18.7 points a game since he returned.
 
EDIT: although that pales in comparison to being worried about freaking Ghost being able to do his part which might be the dumbest thing someone with opposable thumbs has ever typed.  Guess hitting 96% of his kicks and being near the top of the league in kickoff value isn't cutting it these days.

 
I'm actually looking forward to some Browner vs. Steve Smith match-ups.  Crazy-on-crazy crime.  There could be some epic line of scrimmage grappling and woofing.
 
Owen Daniels is going to hurt the Patriots this weekend.  There will be a red zone situation where Collins will be blitzing instead of covering Daniels and Chung won't be able to handle it.
 
Otherwise, I'm confident in a Pats (close) victory.  

 

[Stitch01]

I think they're going to try to take Steve Smith and Daniels out of the game and make Torey Smith and company beat them, so Im not sure Daniels is going to hurt the Pats.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Daniels hurt Pittsburgh but he was actually pretty awful in the second half of the regular season.  His last seven games he caught 15 balls on 33 targets for 199 yards and 1 TD.
 
Baltimore's 3rd-5th options in the passing game are a substantial weakness - Daniels, Crockett Gilmore, old friend Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown.  I'm happy to run Chung, Collins, and Arrington out there against those guys.
 
Another favorable aspect of this matchup for us is that neither of the Smiths is very effective operating out of the slot - they're both almost exclusively outside guys and their slot production sucks - and neither of their 3rd receivers (Aiken or Brown) is all that scary on the outside.  One of the ways to hurt us (this was the GB formula) is to play 3 WR and then move the "expected" slot guy to the outside and one of your top guys (like Jordy Nelson) inside, so that either you get a top guy away from Revis or you force Arrington to play on the outside.  Maybe Baltimore will try something similar but it seems more likely that we're just going to see a lot of the straightforward man coverage matchup of Revis on Steve Smith, Browner on Torrey Smith with DMC shaded to that side giving help over the top, Chung playing a lot of man on Daniels (sometimes with a LB bracket), and then either heavy packages in which we're in base and a guy like Casillas has to cover Gillmore or a FB or 3 WR packages in which Arrington has Aiken or Brown in the slot.  Obviously we'll switch coverages a lot too (I think somebody mentioned using Cover 3 at times and that makes sense to me) but as far as a baseline set of matchups in man-to-man, that's an extremely favorable scenario IMO, a lot easier than many other teams we've faced this year.

 

[Shelterdog]

I think they're going to try to take Steve Smith and Daniels out of the game and make Torey Smith and company beat them, so Im not sure Daniels is going to hurt the Pats.

 
Daniels seems to do a lot of his damage off of play action--so I think the key to stopping him is to stop the run, and I think that ends up being a big focus..  I think the Ravens play a lot of 12 and 21 (they probably want to play a pretty physical, run heavy game and their third WRs suck) and the Pats stay out of nickel and play a bunch of  5-2/3-4/4-3 under looks with 3 heavy linemen, Chandler as the LEO/RE/ROLB, Nink standing up but playing near the line, and Collins and Hightower as your off the line guys.. 

 

[Stitch01]

Daniels hurt Pittsburgh but he was actually pretty awful in the second half of the regular season.  His last seven games he caught 15 balls on 33 targets for 199 yards and 1 TD.
 
Baltimore's 3rd-5th options in the passing game are a substantial weakness - Daniels, Crockett Gilmore, old friend Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown.  I'm happy to run Chung, Collins, and Arrington out there against those guys.
 
Another favorable aspect of this matchup for us is that neither of the Smiths is very effective operating out of the slot - they're both almost exclusively outside guys and their slot production sucks - and neither of their 3rd receivers (Aiken or Brown) is all that scary on the outside.  One of the ways to hurt us (this was the GB formula) is to play 3 WR and then move the "expected" slot guy to the outside and one of your top guys (like Jordy Nelson) inside, so that either you get a top guy away from Revis or you force Arrington to play on the outside.  Maybe Baltimore will try something similar but it seems more likely that we're just going to see a lot of the straightforward man coverage matchup of Revis on Steve Smith, Browner on Torrey Smith with DMC shaded to that side giving help over the top, Chung playing a lot of man on Daniels (sometimes with a LB bracket), and then either heavy packages in which we're in base and a guy like Casillas has to cover Gillmore or a FB or 3 WR packages in which Arrington has Aiken or Brown in the slot.  Obviously we'll switch coverages a lot too (I think somebody mentioned using Cover 3 at times and that makes sense to me) but as far as a baseline set of matchups in man-to-man, that's an extremely favorable scenario IMO, a lot easier than many other teams we've faced this year.

More of a scheme thing with Daniels, Kubiak offenses work best when the TE is contributing and tend to sputter when the aren't.
 
Agreed its a great matchup given both the lack of tertiary options and what their top receivers do well, I think Steve Smith is the exact kind of top receiver where having Revis provides the greatest advantage given he doesn't have elite physical attributes.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

I know the common wisdom these days says that Revis covers the #2 and takes him out of the game, then you give Browner the #2, but why wouldn't you match up Browner on a 35 year old, hot tempered, Steve Smith Sr.?
 
He ran a 4.39 - 40 fifteen years ago. He's ultra-competitive and isn't going to just give up. Wouldn't he be the ideal matchup for Browner? Older, slower and likes to play physical.
 
Torey Smith ran a 4.4 this century. 
 
I don't think 40 times are a huge indicator, but they're pretty close and Smith did his in 2000. Route running etc. is important but I don't think this is a typical week of Revis = #2 WR , shutdown and #1 WR = Browner + help
 
Also, Flacco loves to throw a lot of balls high in the air and let his WR"s get under them (then get PI calls) and that's a perfect spot for McCourty not to be on an island playing lone deep safety.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I know the common wisdom these days says that Revis covers the #2 and takes him out of the game, then you give Browner the #2, but why wouldn't you match up Browner on a 35 year old, hot tempered, Steve Smith Sr.?
 
He ran a 4.39 - 40 fifteen years ago. He's ultra-competitive and isn't going to just give up. Wouldn't he be the ideal matchup for Browner? Older, slower and likes to play physical.
 
Torey Smith ran a 4.4 this century. 
 
I don't think 40 times are a huge indicator, but they're pretty close and Smith did his in 2000. Route running etc. is important but I don't think this is a typical week of Revis = #2 WR , shutdown and #1 WR = Browner + help
 
Also, Flacco loves to throw a lot of balls high in the air and let his WR"s get under them (then get PI calls) and that's a perfect spot for McCourty not to be on an island playing lone deep safety.

You'd rather have Revis on S. Smith because he is someone that Browner will not have much success against compared to T. Smith.  Browner can use his physicality to knock T. Smith off his routes and slow the timing down on the deep ball.  With Revis on S. Smith, that frees up DMC to shade to T. Smith's side of the field.
 
Of course, this could also be a game where Revis covers one side of the field similar to the Jets.