Payton Pritchard drafted #26 overall

tbb345

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And if you miss out on PP, are you hurting badly?

Missing out on players like PP just isn't that big a deal.

But yes, that is what you should be looking for. That's not the same thing though.
I mean, if you are a supposed draft expert, isn’t missing out on players like PP the entire thing?You don’t need to be a genius to say that the top 4 or 5 are going to be good. It’s alerting your audience to the potential rotational pieces.

Its incredibly dismissive from that guy and fits in with his MO that he’s a giant tool
 

Cesar Crespo

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I mean, if you are a supposed draft expert, isn’t missing out on players like PP the entire thing?You don’t need to be a genius to say that the top 4 or 5 are going to be good. It’s alerting your audience to the potential rotational pieces.

Its incredibly dismissive from that guy and fits in with his MO that he’s a giant tool
Teams miss on the top top 4-5 all the time and it sets the franchise back. The C's were incredibly lucky to get Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. They could have easily had Kris Dunn and Markelle Fultz... and if SOSH got their way on draft night... that's who the consensus would have picked.
 

Bleedred

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I don't mind Payton Pritchard in the abstract, but on a team with Kemba Walker, Carsen Edwards, Jeff Teague, and Tremont Waters, he seemed a little superfluous. To have five guards last year who were barely six feet and not incredibly athletic was a massive roster construction failure. .
Superfluous insofar as they had players on the roster of his size and athleticism, but PP is light years better than Edwards, Waters and I would submit 2020/21 version of Teague.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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It doesn't set anything back to miss on a rotation player with a late pick, it just means one fewer spot that as a high salary not-quite-a-destination team you will have to try to fill with over the hill vets or Euro-transfer types who will play for a minimum deal.
 

chilidawg

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Teams miss on the top top 4-5 all the time and it sets the franchise back. The C's were incredibly lucky to get Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. They could have easily had Kris Dunn and Markelle Fultz... and if SOSH got their way on draft night... that's who the consensus would have picked.
Certainly there's always some luck involved, but give DA some credit for making those picks.
 

Cellar-Door

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And if you miss out on PP, are you hurting badly?

Missing out on players like PP just isn't that big a deal.

But yes, that is what you should be looking for. That's not the same thing though.
I get that theory, but I also think if you are looking to be good at what he does you need to know what you miss and why, and dismissing misses on role players (like 50% of the draft at least) is silly. Especially since he misses at the top all the time too. Demakis' thing is that he misses all the time because he's lazy and bad at this, but he loves to dismiss his misses as not a big deal because "role players" but trumpet when he's right in the top 3 (where almost everyone is right).

Also... if you're talking about second half of the 1st round... missing on players like PP is still pretty bad, because that's a top what... 25% outcome for a late 20s pick to be a solid rotation player from day 1? More guys drafted there never contribute anything than bring positive value, and teams that have sustained success often do that by hitting late in the 1st (it's how the Spurs built those contenders around Duncan) if you keep missing role players, then unless you're the Lakers and get good vets on the minimum, your depth isn't going to be good and cost efficient.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Teams miss on the top top 4-5 all the time and it sets the franchise back. The C's were incredibly lucky to get Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. They could have easily had Kris Dunn and Markelle Fultz... and if SOSH got their way on draft night... that's who the consensus would have picked.
I don’t feel Ainge was “lucky” at all with Tatum and Jaylen. They were both evaluated and targeted with our high lottery picks. Many here hated the Jaylen pick at the time.

I think both sides are correct on drafting at 26. If you are in rebuild mode you aren’t looking to nab a Pritchard as he wouldn’t not only not move the needle but likely fail in how a lottery team is structured (or lack of structure) with the focus not being on winning games. If you are a contender however and you can turn a cheap rookie deal into a rotation piece with multi-year control that is a win.

Different strokes for different folks but most importantly different strokes based on the teams direction when picking late 1st/early 2nd. If we were coming off a 20-win year I’d have preferred someone like Jaden McDaniels, a player with much higher upside along with greater bust potential but not a guy who is going to help a veteran team win during his rookie deal. For a team where the Celtics were he was a great pick to plug in some second unit minites in our rotation on his cheap rookie deal.

Edit: To where I read the Ish Smith comp.....prime Ish is arguably the fastest baseline to baseline player in the history of the game. Ish with Pritchard’s 3-point shot is a HOFer lol.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don’t feel Ainge was “lucky” at all with Tatum and Jaylen. They were both evaluated and targeted with our high lottery picks. Many here hated the Jaylen pick at the time.

I think both sides are correct on drafting at 26. If you are in rebuild mode you aren’t looking to nab a Pritchard as he wouldn’t not only not move the needle but likely fail in how a lottery team is structured (or lack of structure) with the focus not being on winning games. If you are a contender however and you can turn a cheap rookie deal into a rotation piece with multi-year control that is a win.

Different strokes for different folks but most importantly different strokes based on the teams direction when picking late 1st/early 2nd. If we were coming off a 20-win year I’d have preferred someone like Jaden McDaniels, a player with much higher upside along with greater bust potential but not a guy who is going to help a veteran team win during his rookie deal.
Yeah my point wasn't about Ainge. Just that picking in the top 5 is hardly a sure thing.
 

tbb345

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Teams miss on the top top 4-5 all the time and it sets the franchise back. The C's were incredibly lucky to get Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. They could have easily had Kris Dunn and Markelle Fultz... and if SOSH got their way on draft night... that's who the consensus would have picked.
that’s missing the point of what I was saying. Pretty much 0 SOSH posters are claiming that they are draft experts and I was speaking specifically about Demakis

Also, isn’t this Dean Demakis entire lane? Like you’ve got to be a pretty big draft nerd to have even heard of the guy. I’d imagine that a large percentage of his audience is looking at his material to see if his models have a difference of opinion on the Cade Cunningham types and if his models have identified any late 1sts/early 2nd types who could be rotation guys
 

ManicCompression

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Superfluous insofar as they had players on the roster of his size and athleticism, but PP is light years better than Edwards, Waters and I would submit 2020/21 version of Teague.
100% but having a full third of your roster dedicated to smurfs is very limiting when you're trying to put complementary players on the floor.
 

Cesar Crespo

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that’s missing the point of what I was saying. Pretty much 0 SOSH posters are claiming that they are draft experts and I was speaking specifically about Demakis

Also, isn’t this Dean Demakis entire lane? Like you’ve got to be a pretty big draft nerd to have even heard of the guy. I’d imagine that a large percentage of his audience is looking at his material to see if his models have a difference of opinion on the Cade Cunningham types and if his models have identified any late 1sts/early 2nd types who could be rotation guys
You'd have to be a SoSHer to have heard of the guy. He has less than 400 followers. He's just some guy with a twitter. An unverified one at that. He used to be a member here which is the only reason he's brought up.

I was also speaking in a general sense that missing out on a PP type isn't going to hurt anyone. If you are using it as an excuse for being wrong, yeah it's a shit excuse.
 

tbrown_01923

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I was also speaking in a general sense that missing out on a PP type isn't going to hurt anyone. If you are using it as an excuse for being wrong, yeah it's a shit excuse.
Missing on a majority late first and seconds has hindered the C's though. They have carried too many young players who haven't contributed enough...
 

Cesar Crespo

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Missing on a majority late first and seconds has hindered the C's though. They have carried too many young players who haven't contributed enough...
It's almost like a contending team should have traded those picks for players who could contribute instead. Dedicating roster spots to those players hurt the team, not missing out on the picks.

I mean, we missed out on Desmond Bane. Was the team set back for years? Hitting on PP with a late 1st round pick offers tremendous value and is a nice thing to have, but it really doesn't move the needle much.
 

Devizier

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I actually think it's both sour grapes and he's wrong. If you're analyzing draft prospects once you get outside the top 15 or so you should be looking for rotation players, because that's what teams usually are, and honestly, missing floor because you get obsessed with guys who have like a 1.5% chance of being starters is bad evaluation.
The 82games draft value table is very old now, but it categorizes players by level of player using their own metric. It's not perfect, maybe a little on the generous side, but the trend probably holds. I converted their table to a visual for easier understanding.

43429

When you get to the Pritchard range, you're pretty much hoping for a 30% chance of a role player, with double that likelihood of a guy who is a Yabusele-level deep bench player.
 

DJnVa

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You'd have to be a SoSHer to have heard of the guy. He has less than 400 followers. He's just some guy with a twitter. An unverified one at that. He used to be a member here which is the only reason he's brought up.
I did not know that.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Missing on a majority late first and seconds has hindered the C's though. They have carried too many young players who haven't contributed enough...
I agree wtih this---though PP is not one of those misses. I didn't like the pick when it happened and I was wrong; he's a legit NBA rotation player and (in spite of what Dean on Draft thinks) that is good value for the 26th pick especially for a good/contending team looking to fill the bench cheaply. That is why I wanted Bane instead of dumping the 30th pick, too.

Also, it isn't just about upside vs floor....it is also about fit and role. Part of why the PP pick looks good now is there is a clear, definable role he can fill on a good team---combo guard and floor-spacer. He proved this as a rookie. That's different than Grant Williams, where the question on draft night (and still today) is whether there's really a role he can play on a good team. I didn't hate the Grant pick but I think those are pretty different lowish-upside picks. A Jaden McDaniels is just a totally different kind of pick, hoping for upside. Whether that makes sense depends on the team context (as HRB noted above).
 

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Quadrupling down:

View: https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/1426040906986180608?s=20


"I would simply not draft the decent rotation player at #26 and draft a high-upside talent with a good chance of making it instead."

This motherfucker was not just wrong. I get really sick of these rewrite history and pretend no one remembers shit assholes. He killed the pick. That’s fine, him doubling down and shifting the goal post means he thinks his readers are stupid.
 

Euclis20

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It’s cool. Dean whiffed on Jaylen too.
https://deanondraft.com/2016/06/23/draft-instant-reactions/

He loved the Dragan Bender pick though!
Man, that entire article should be grounds to never mention this guy again. Besides the obvious loving of the Bender pick and shitting all over jaylen, he spends time killing teams for drafting Brodgon, Hield, Jamal Murray...the only guys he hits on (besides the consensus top 2) are Levert and Dejounte Murray. We'd be better off that throwing darts.

The only thing good about drafting Bender (and Josh Jackson the following year) is that it kept the Suns bad enough to grab Ayton in 2018.
 

Big McCorkle

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Something that struck me when I was looking at Pritchard's splits for last season is just how quickly his turnover numbers improved.

With his usage remaining steady and even increasing towards the end of the season...

TO/game TO ratio AST/TO
December 1.8 18.4 1.22
January 1.4 13.4 1.92
February 0.7 7.7 2.60
March 0.4 5.9 3.33
April 0.8 7.8 2.08
May 0.4 3.8 4.33


These numbers are admittedly just three different ways to express the same thing, but they all speak of a rookie who was able to very quickly learn, adapt to, and get a handle on the NBA game. The biggest knock I can put on him going forward is his size, but 6'1 with a 6'4 wingspan is roughly on par, or even better than, an awful lot of very successful point guards. I don't see anything about him or his game that could be reasonably be seen as a hard barrier to developing into a quality starter, never mind merely filling a role in the rotation. That's not to say that it's going to happen, but just that he doesn't need to be superlatively good in one thing in order to make up for some insurmountable deficiency elsewhere (ala Isaiah Thomas, who needed to be an elite scorer to compensate for the hard physical limits that being 5'9 puts on a person's ability to play defense, or Grant Williams, whose combined lack of height and lack of speed makes him incredibly difficult to project as anything more than a niche role player unless he can shoot incredibly well or be able to do all the little things like Draymond can.)
 

slamminsammya

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Something that struck me when I was looking at Pritchard's splits for last season is just how quickly his turnover numbers improved.

With his usage remaining steady and even increasing towards the end of the season...

TO/game TO ratio AST/TO
December 1.8 18.4 1.22
January 1.4 13.4 1.92
February 0.7 7.7 2.60
March 0.4 5.9 3.33
April 0.8 7.8 2.08
May 0.4 3.8 4.33


These numbers are admittedly just three different ways to express the same thing, but they all speak of a rookie who was able to very quickly learn, adapt to, and get a handle on the NBA game. The biggest knock I can put on him going forward is his size, but 6'1 with a 6'4 wingspan is roughly on par, or even better than, an awful lot of very successful point guards. I don't see anything about him or his game that could be reasonably be seen as a hard barrier to developing into a quality starter, never mind merely filling a role in the rotation. That's not to say that it's going to happen, but just that he doesn't need to be superlatively good in one thing in order to make up for some insurmountable deficiency elsewhere (ala Isaiah Thomas, who needed to be an elite scorer to compensate for the hard physical limits that being 5'9 puts on a person's ability to play defense, or Grant Williams, whose combined lack of height and lack of speed makes him incredibly difficult to project as anything more than a niche role player unless he can shoot incredibly well or be able to do all the little things like Draymond can.)
Some improvement is inevitable, but I think those TO numbers are also largely reflective of a change in role as the season progressed. He went from backup PG to playing mostly SG towards the end of the season with far fewer playmaking responsibilities.
 

Big McCorkle

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Some improvement is inevitable, but I think those TO numbers are also largely reflective of a change in role as the season progressed. He went from backup PG to playing mostly SG towards the end of the season with far fewer playmaking responsibilities.
Maybe, and it's really the sort of thing that's better determined by closely looking at the tape, but his AST% remained fairly consistent throughout the year even as his usage went up, and his turnover numbers were heading downward pretty quickly even before the role change happened. So it could be little column A, little column B. And then there's what he's been doing as a playmaker in Summer League (which, of course, is Summer League, meaning it's all taken with one large grain of salt), which at least certainly has given no evidence to suggest that he isn't shaping up to be a really good playmaker, because that man is leading a beautiful offense.

I actually tried to look up his SL numbers from last year to see how this year's performance compares statistically, and was confused for a second before I realized, "Right, the whole pandemic thing, there was no Summer League last season."
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This motherfucker was not just wrong. I get really sick of these rewrite history and pretend no one remembers shit assholes. He killed the pick. That’s fine, him doubling down and shifting the goal post means he thinks his readers are stupid.
Yeah, he really moved the goalposts. In his initial post, he said, "Good luck waiting for [PP] to ever be a useful NBA player." He didn't say, "PP is a rotation piece but I'd rather draft a guy with more upside, even if he's less likely to make it." Basically, he thought PP couldn't play and he was wrong. He should admit it.
 

lexrageorge

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It's perfectly OK to dunk on rando draft tools when they get a pick wrong and then double down on it. But this Dean person has a long, long way to go until he gets the Ron Borges Seymour/Light award.
 

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It's perfectly OK to dunk on rando draft tools when they get a pick wrong and then double down on it. But this Dean person has a long, long way to go until he gets the Ron Borges Seymour/Light award.
Borges is in a class by himself. Best part is how he maligned the Seymour pick and then moaned even worse when we moved on from Seymour. He's just a miserable bastard. This Dean chucklehead just can't admit when he's wrong.
 

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I will say it now. PP is a bad bad man.

And in regards to "Can he do this <summer league destruction> against the Varsity?" He doesnt have to. If he can 50% of what he is doing he will be a valuable piece.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I will say it now. PP is a bad bad man.

And in regards to "Can he do this <summer league destruction> against the Varsity?" He doesnt have to. If he can 50% of what he is doing he will be a valuable piece.
This is what even the “detractors” are saying as well. It is confusing to hear people “not believe in PP” when he’s pretty much universally valued around here as our 4th guard behind Smart/Schroeder/Richardson (assuming you consider Jaylen a 3 and that two of the above mentioned 4 will always be on the floor).
 

nighthob

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Eh, seems like he liked Jaylen, just that not nearly as much as he liked Dragan. Woof.

His vitriol seems to be geared towards the *rest* of the Celtics draft that year.

Also, I didn't realize he was a poster either. Who was he?
I believe he was Mahky Mark. Or something like that. (He was a Bellhorn fan, I guess.)
 

Fishy1

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This is what even the “detractors” are saying as well. It is confusing to hear people “not believe in PP” when he’s pretty much universally valued around here as our 4th guard behind Smart/Schroeder/Richardson (assuming you consider Jaylen a 3 and that two of the above mentioned 4 will always be on the floor).
Honestly feels like exaggerated squabbling about projections around his upside because people are bored.

I'm pretty high on Pritchard because I think he's going to learn he can fire away from anywhere, and if he does that, he can draw defenders way beyond the three-point line, and that should open up the rest of the floor for him even as a below-average NBA athlete. But I also am worried he will never reach that projection. If he doesn't, he's still a good role-player.
 

luckiestman

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I'm pretty high on Pritchard because I think he's going to learn he can fire away from anywhere, and if he does that, he can draw defenders way beyond the three-point line, and that should open up the rest of the floor for him even as a below-average NBA athlete. But I also am worried he will never reach that projection. If he doesn't, he's still a good role-player.

Is he a below average athlete? He has below average attributes but he seems like a good athlete to me.
 

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Is he a below average athlete? He has below average attributes but he seems like a good athlete to me.
Who are you comparing him too? He’s a decent athlete if matched up against summer league competition.......he’s at the bottom when compared to starting NBA point guards. Against backup 1’s he’s probably somewhere in the middle of these two places.
 

Cellar-Door

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This is what even the “detractors” are saying as well. It is confusing to hear people “not believe in PP” when he’s pretty much universally valued around here as our 4th guard behind Smart/Schroeder/Richardson (assuming you consider Jaylen a 3 and that two of the above mentioned 4 will always be on the floor).
Yeah I get identified as a detractor, but really it's just 2 things:
1. I don;t think he's really a PG, he's a small 2 ala Lou Will or Seth Curry. That has value, you just need to recognize it and set roster and lineup accordingly.
2. I thought it was clear last year that he was not as good as Kemba Walker, and that the people calling for him to start over him were crazy. Kemba's problem was his $$$ to performance ratio, he was still a better PG than PP by a good amount.
 

Fishy1

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Is he a below average athlete? He has below average attributes but he seems like a good athlete to me.
I feel like he is, but it might be an open question. He can look fast in the open floor, but appears to have a weak first step in the half-court and struggles to elevate around the rim. A lot of his scoring in the half-court last year was either pick-and-roll fun or spot-up shooting.
 

reggiecleveland

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Who are you comparing him too? He’s a decent athlete if matched up against summer league competition.......he’s at the bottom when compared to starting NBA point guards. Against backup 1’s he’s probably somewhere in the middle of these two places.
I am with you heee. But, I am scared to get into it. An 'average' nba athlete is guy who had he dedicated himself to decathlon would have a medal chance if he learns to pole vault.
I keep hearing how Nesmith and Romeo are +, or ++ athletes. They are both pretty average NBA athletes. The Celtics were one of the least athletic teams in the league after the Jays and TL.
 

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Tatum is a GREAT basketball player. But not a GREAT athlete. TL and Brown I would agree with and probably Javonte Green (from last year) are great athletes.

Luckily the game is basketball.
 

luckiestman

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I am with you heee. But, I am scared to get into it. An 'average' nba athlete is guy who had he dedicated himself to decathlon would have a medal chance if he learns to pole vault.
I keep hearing how Nesmith and Romeo are +, or ++ athletes. They are both pretty average NBA athletes. The Celtics were one of the least athletic teams in the league after the Jays and TL.
I might be a top 10 Tatum fan in the world but don’t rate him as super athletic. TL and Jaylen are in a different stratosphere.

Romeo has some twitch, Nesmith doesn’t jump out to me.
 

reggiecleveland

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I might be a top 10 Tatum fan in the world but don’t rate him as super athletic. TL and Jaylen are in a different stratosphere.

Romeo has some twitch, Nesmith doesn’t jump out to me.
with you. Tatum biggest asset as an athlete is size. Like Bird, he is just bigger than guys with his skill, or more skilled than guys as long and strong.
 

luckiestman

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Who are you comparing him too? He’s a decent athlete if matched up against summer league competition.......he’s at the bottom when compared to starting NBA point guards. Against backup 1’s he’s probably somewhere in the middle of these two places.

I normally judge athletes in a different context (a sport I know better as I’m not a hoops junkies outside of the Cs) but I break it down in terms of attributes (various measurements), athleticism, and skill. There is some overlap with this and some treat athleticism as an attribute.

Durant has + attributes and skill

Giannis has + attributes and athleticism

LeBron has + all 3

Jaylen’s skill needs a lot of work

PGs? Doesn’t seem like the best ones are freak athletes. The dickhead in Brooklyn might have the most skill and he is a good athlete but nothing that blows me away. When I look at Pritchard his athleticism seems fine to me. Luka is one of the best PGs in the league and is in questionable shape. Fat Harden is skilled to the max with plus attributes. Who is the best PG athlete? Fox? To me, Pritchard will have to build his skill and get stronger to overcome his attributes.

To critique myself, not playing ball, I don’t know if micro skills are pure skills or have a strong athletic component e.g. first step. In combat sports some dudes can look way faster than they are because they have impeccable timing. My analysis falls short because I don’t know certain things intimately about the game.
 

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I might be a top 10 Tatum fan in the world but don’t rate him as super athletic. TL and Jaylen are in a different stratosphere.

Romeo has some twitch, Nesmith doesn’t jump out to me.
If Tatum had Jaylen’s athleticism he would be, idk, 4/5 of LeBron James? Really speaks to how much of a beast LBJ is at his size as a lot of the greats in the 6’8”ish range seem to settle into the Tatum/George/Pierce range of very good athlete with great skill and savvy but not quite that extra gear that puts you in highest realms of dominance.
 

TripleOT

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The best PGs tend to not be great athlete, and tend to not have great attributes. They have consummate skill, and tons of competitiveness, like Curry, CP, Stockton, Zeke, Nash, Cousy, Tiny, Parker, Price. Some of the bigger PGs, like Magic and Kidd, also weren’t great athletes. Out of the all time best PGs, Westbrook and GP were very athletic.
 

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The best PGs tend to not be great athlete, and tend to not have great attributes. They have consummate skill, and tons of competitiveness, like Curry, CP, Stockton, Zeke, Nash, Cousy, Tiny, Parker, Price. Some of the bigger PGs, like Magic and Kidd, also weren’t great athletes. Out of the all time best PGs, Westbrook and GP were very athletic.
Yes but most of those who weren’t great athletes made up for that with their size. It’s tough when you are lacking in both crucial physical areas but even some on that list had elite quickness/elite quick release while not necessarily being great athletes.