Payton Pritchard drafted #26 overall

amarshal2

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I think that it's a pretty damn accurate comp. Not perfect but those guys are similar in a lot of ways. PP will eventually get some love for his hands on defense (and abuse for his suboptimal physicality at PG until he gets stronger). But offensively, tons of similarities. PP probably ahead of FVV at the same age.
I don’t remember young FVV very well but how similar are they actually. The things that stand out for me for FVV are:
1) range for days (check! PP is actually looking like the better player here)
2) great hands on defense that makes him a disruptive defender against bigger players (you mentioned this but I don’t see it in PP he’s good but a full level down here and it’s not a small difference...FVVs drating is 7 points/100 lower FWW)
3) good playmaker — averaging over 8 assists per 100 for his career (PP in the 5s)
4) below average inside the arc — really ineffective when he’s not grifting with a career 2P FG% that’s gotta be near the bottom of the league (PP by contrast >50%) made up for by getting to the line a lot for a guy his size (PP doesn’t get to the line hardly at all — though both are great FT shooters as you’d expect)

edit: rereading I guess we essentially agree. Probably a wash on offense but FVV defense makes him a starter instead of a reserve
 

Cesar Crespo

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Well, okay. You started it. :)

Seriously, I don't want to hijack the Williams thread too much. Just briefly: I'm not a fan of the FVV comparison. Still ...

PP first year (age 23): .456% FG, .414% 3P, .572% eFG, .875 FT
FVV first year (age 22): .351% FG, .379% 3P, .401% eFG, .818 FT

He suffers a bit on other stats (per 36):
PP first year: 4.0 TRB, 3.6 assists, 1 steal, 1.6 turnovers, 13.2 points
FVV first year: 5.1 TRB, 4.3 assists, 2 steal, 1.8 turnovers, 13.1 points

So it looks like first-year PP is a better shooter, FVV a better defender/rebounder. His upside? I think starter for a good team, and a bit more (goes off for a 35-, 40-point game? becomes a key cog in the offense?) Doesn't mean he gets there, but I think there's a decent chance. Let's see where he is in 4 years. Okay, back to Rob, who we all agree Danny should sign in the off season. :)
FVV's sample size his rookie year is so small it's not usable. It's also not fair to compare his 2nd season to PPs, so I don't know.

I also think you are convinced PP is a .414 3pt shooter now, that he's going to be one going forward. Jayson Tatum shot .433 from 3 his rookie year. I'm guessing he will never shoot as high as .433 again. I think PP is a good shooter, I'm not sure he's a better one than FVV. FVV is a career .386 3 point shooter.
 

lovegtm

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With any 1st year guy who has shown he can physically and mentally play in the league, the range of outcomes is really wide. Most guys who have shown that have way higher upsides than is commonly acknowledged, which is why we sometimes see guys like FVV come out of nowhere.

At the same time, very few hit their ceilings or 85th percentile outcomes, by definition.

The best we can say about PP in comparison to FVV is that there probably isn’t a huge physical or skills reason he can’t become that, but there are so many things between here and there that I wouldn’t let him be the holdup in a trade.

By contrast, guys like Waters, Edwards, and Tacko haven’t shown that they can hang in the NBA either physically or mentally, so you can be a lot more confident dismissing high upsides for them.
 

Imbricus

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I also think you are convinced PP is a .414 3pt shooter now, that he's going to be one going forward.
He could be worse. He could be a little better. But sure, odds are he'll be at least somewhat worse, though it's not crazy to think he could be a 40% 3-pt. shooter.

Free-throw shooting is supposed to correlate somewhat with 3p%, and he's already hitting free throws at a higher rate than FVV in all but one of five seasons. (Yup, small sample size, and last two years in college he was closer to 84% and 82%, which is a little better than Van Vleet was -- but also, PP was a slow-to-develop guy).

Anyway, I don't want to come off sounding like a total PP homer. He got off to a great start, and people got carried away, then some of his shortcomings were exposed. I see the glass half full, but it's hard to predict the future for someone who's played so little NBA ball. Agree 100% with this:

With any 1st year guy who has shown he can physically and mentally play in the league, the range of outcomes is really wide.
 

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With any 1st year guy who has shown he can physically and mentally play in the league, the range of outcomes is really wide. Most guys who have shown that have way higher upsides than is commonly acknowledged, which is why we sometimes see guys like FVV come out of nowhere.

At the same time, very few hit their ceilings or 85th percentile outcomes, by definition.

The best we can say about PP in comparison to FVV is that there probably isn’t a huge physical or skills reason he can’t become that, but there are so many things between here and there that I wouldn’t let him be the holdup in a trade.

By contrast, guys like Waters, Edwards, and Tacko haven’t shown that they can hang in the NBA either physically or mentally, so you can be a lot more confident dismissing high upsides for them.
This says it perfectly.
 

lovegtm

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I know it's Fashionable and Sophisticated to be down on PP, but he's looked better lately in terms of whatever rookie wall shit he had going on. He needs to be able to do something really well to be a decent NBA player, and expanding his range out to 30 feet is probably his best angle if he can pull it off. Would help a lot both with spacing and his slower release issues. No idea whether he can pull it off, but something to watch.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I know it's Fashionable and Sophisticated to be down on PP, but he's looked better lately in terms of whatever rookie wall shit he had going on. He needs to be able to do something really well to be a decent NBA player, and expanding his range out to 30 feet is probably his best angle if he can pull it off. Would help a lot both with spacing and his slower release issues. No idea whether he can pull it off, but something to watch.
I don't think people are down on him so much that we were riding a high and came back to earth and realized he's not FVV. He's going to be in our top 8 rotation for the next 3 years after this one.
 

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I don't think people are down on him so much that we were riding a high and came back to earth and realized he's not FVV.

I don’t know that he can’t be that good. He can handle the ball and he can shoot. Let’s give him a normal offseason to see if he’s can get better.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don’t know that he can’t be that good. He can handle the ball and he can shoot. Let’s give him a normal offseason to see if he’s can get better.
I think he can be good, but I think it's fair to say he's very very unlikely to be FVV. The reasoning being:
1. He can't get to the rim and draw fouls like FVV could (even as a rookie)
2. He doesn't defend at anywhere the level FVV does (including his first 2 years)
3. He may be able to handle the ball, but his distribution and passing are pretty far behind where FVV was as a rookie (when he was a year younger).

FVV isn't a reasonable comp for PP, what you're hoping for is probably more.... late Patty Mills? (prime Mills racked up a higher assist%, but now that he is more of a shooter it's a good upside comp)

People looked at FVV as a body comp, but the way they play isn't really that similar.
 

lovegtm

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I think he can be good, but I think it's fair to say he's very very unlikely to be FVV. The reasoning being:
1. He can't get to the rim and draw fouls like FVV could (even as a rookie)
2. He doesn't defend at anywhere the level FVV does (including his first 2 years)
3. He may be able to handle the ball, but his distribution and passing are pretty far behind where FVV was as a rookie (when he was a year younger).

FVV isn't a reasonable comp for PP, what you're hoping for is probably more.... late Patty Mills? (prime Mills racked up a higher assist%, but now that he is more of a shooter it's a good upside comp)

People looked at FVV as a body comp, but the way they play isn't really that similar.
This is fair. I'm mostly interested right now in what PP can be, in terms of the different facets of his game, than his exact comps.
 

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This is fair. I'm mostly interested right now in what PP can be, in terms of the different facets of his game, than his exact comps.
I’m interested to see if he can get playoff minutes as he can be exploited on both ends of the floor. At this stage I’m guessing no or at least not in the 2H with a shortened 8-man rotation
 

lovegtm

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I’m interested to see if he can get playoff minutes as he can be exploited on both ends of the floor. At this stage I’m guessing no or at least not in the 2H with a shortened 8-man rotation
Wouldn't surprise me. I think something like 5 mins/game if I had to bet, probably most in the 1st half.
 

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How many guys in the NBA have his kind of range? Lillard, Doncic, Young, Harden? I think there is some underselling of the potential that comes with being a legit threat from Very Deep.
 

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I’m interested to see if he can get playoff minutes as he can be exploited on both ends of the floor. At this stage I’m guessing no or at least not in the 2H with a shortened 8-man rotation
I worry about that too, as his physique just can't handle NBA strength coming at him. Guys we think of as little guys have abused him at times, nevermind a cold-blooded killer like Lowry or Butler just making a point of backing him down every possession in the playoffs until Brad has to sit him down.

I was on the "hey he could be FVV" bandwagon in the beginning, but Fred doesn't get freight-trained by 200lb guards.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How many guys in the NBA have his kind of range? Lillard, Doncic, Young, Harden? I think there is some underselling of the potential that comes with being a legit threat from Very Deep.
This is definitely a skill that PP has and can utilitize but I think you are underestimating the amount role players like Pritchard who have similar range. There are also several teams with multiple players with consistent 26-28 foot range. Charlotte has Rozier, Graham and Monk.....the Jazz have Mitchell and Bogdanovich (can even include Clarkson and Ingles), Mavs with Doncic and Porzingis......individuals off top of head, Brook Lopez, Bertans, Gallinari, Korkmaz, Simons, Duncan Robinson, Huerter, Jordan Poole, and I know I’m missing a bunch.
 

slamminsammya

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This is definitely a skill that PP has and can utilitize but I think you are underestimating the amount role players like Pritchard who have similar range. There are also several teams with multiple players with consistent 26-28 foot range. Charlotte has Rozier, Graham and Monk.....the Jazz have Mitchell and Bogdanovich (can even include Clarkson and Ingles), Mavs with Doncic and Porzingis......individuals off top of head, Brook Lopez, Bertans, Gallinari, Korkmaz, Simons, Duncan Robinson, Huerter, Jordan Poole, and I know I’m missing a bunch.
This is probably true, but I was thinking more in the 28+ range when I think of capital d Deep. There is a significant dropoff around 28 in terms of attempts. Sadly the only numbers I can find are aggregated - the individual breakdowns on NBA.com end at 26-30 feet.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is probably true, but I was thinking more in the 28+ range when I think of capital d Deep. There is a significant dropoff around 28 in terms of attempts. Sadly the only numbers I can find are aggregated - the individual breakdowns on NBA.com end at 26-30 feet.
Where did you find these?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Where did you find these?
I find NBA.com very non-intuitive to search. But to find shots broken down by distance, you have to choose a player and then go to "Splits / Shooting."

PP's should be at this link (unless nba.com redirects everything to the front page): Payton Pritchard | Stats | NBA.com

This is probably true, but I was thinking more in the 28+ range when I think of capital d Deep. There is a significant dropoff around 28 in terms of attempts. Sadly the only numbers I can find are aggregated - the individual breakdowns on NBA.com end at 26-30 feet.
The individual player page mentioned above goes beyond 29 feet. PP is 1-7 from 30-34 feet.
 

slamminsammya

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Where did you find these?
I realize the aggregate I looked at also had the 26-30 bucketing but there is this article also https://www.nba.com/stats/articles/from-way-downtown-the-rise-of-the-deep-three which focuses on 28+ and I think it's fair to infer that the dropoff from 26-30 to 30+ is also quite steep at 28+.

You can visually examine PP's shot chart here and see he's hit a bunch of 28+ https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/pritcpa01/shooting/2021
 

HomeRunBaker

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I find NBA.com very non-intuitive to search. But to find shots broken down by distance, you have to choose a player and then go to "Splits / Shooting."

PP's should be at this link (unless nba.com redirects everything to the front page): Payton Pritchard | Stats | NBA.com


The individual player page mentioned above goes beyond 29 feet. PP is 1-7 from 30-34 feet.
I completely forgot that NBA.com broke down splits like this. I’ll be busy tonight
 

Cellar-Door

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If anyone has stathead (the pay service that took over BBref's advanced searches) they have a tool called shot-finder that lets you find shots based on distance.
 

ZMart100

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One thing PP has going for him defensively is that everyone wants to try to take him 1 on 1, even guys who have no business doing it. He will get beat by very good and great offensive players, but most people will. I think he holds his own against mediocrity, though he still doesn't fully understand what he can and can't get away with in the NBA.
 

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One thing PP has going for him defensively is that everyone wants to try to take him 1 on 1, even guys who have no business doing it. He will get beat by very good and great offensive players, but most people will. I think he holds his own against mediocrity, though he still doesn't fully understand what he can and can't get away with in the NBA.
I dunno. Every time I see Pritchard try to defend the ball, the ballhandler goes right through him as if he weren't there. He is short, small, weak and inexperienced, and it shows when the Jalen Brunsons of the NBA post him up.

That doesn't mean he isn't valuable to handle the ball against pressure and to spread the floor with the threat of his long-distance shot, but his defense looks really bad against quality and mediocrity alike.
 

radsoxfan

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I agree Pritchard can look overwhelmed at times on D. Most of the metrics I've seen seem to have him as slightly below average, and slightly worse on defense than offense. But his D doesn't rate out as particularly terrible.

I think when he gets into a bad matchup he can look very out of place, but the majority of the time he actually holds his own well enough.
 

HomeRunBaker

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One thing PP has going for him defensively is that everyone wants to try to take him 1 on 1, even guys who have no business doing it. He will get beat by very good and great offensive players, but most people will. I think he holds his own against mediocrity, though he still doesn't fully understand what he can and can't get away with in the NBA.
This can happen on occasion to the McConnell’s, Pritchard’s, etc during the regular season when individual game planning isn’t a thing due to travel, lack of practice time, lack of urgency due the long grind, etc. In the playoffs it is different without the travel demands and min of one day off between games, along with the sense of urgency to devise specific ways to hunt out mismatches.
 

DJnVa

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Jay King on PP:

‘If you want to be great, you can’t be normal’: The relentless drive of Celtics rookie Payton Pritchard – The Athletic

One of PP's best friends growing up was the son of former NBA player Brian Grant. I never heard that, though it's probably in this thread somewhere.

The same day of that first fight, the Pritchards surprised Grant by offering him a ride home. He ended up going to their house, playing video games and beginning a lasting friendship. Quickly, Grant realized why Pritchard, though not the most physically talented kid, dominated every sport he played. Understanding the endless work that went into it, Grant determined to follow his friend.

“I just started basically doing everything he did,” Grant says.

In eighth grade, Pritchard did a homeschool program so he could have more time available for athletic training. Grant said his own parents let him do the unorthodox program for about one month, but eventually grew too uncomfortable with the idea. When they told him he needed to return to school, he cried. He couldn’t stand the idea of Pritchard being able to spend all of that extra time in the gym without him. Even at that young age, Grant found himself chasing Pritchard — and not just Pritchard’s athletic dominance in basketball, football and baseball.
Terry, who knew plenty about major college football, thought for years his son would land a Division-I scholarship as a quarterback. Grant, now the captain of Oregon State’s football team, has no doubt Pritchard could have made it at that level.

Pritchard wore the No. 12 like his favorite player, Tom Brady, but wasn’t just a stationary pocket passer.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Jay King on PP:

‘If you want to be great, you can’t be normal’: The relentless drive of Celtics rookie Payton Pritchard – The Athletic

One of PP's best friends growing up was the son of former NBA player Brian Grant. I never heard that, though it's probably in this thread somewhere.
Great article. Thanks for posting. The story lines up with what Scal said in the other thread - to be a professional athlete, most of them have to be at least a bit off. Yes there are the uber athletes that just succeed, but for most people, their obsessive work ethic is really what sets them apart.
 

BigSoxFan

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Great article. Thanks for posting. The story lines up with what Scal said in the other thread - to be a professional athlete, most of them have to be at least a bit off. Yes there are the uber athletes that just succeed, but for most people, their obsessive work ethic is really what sets them apart.
And especially so for a guy like PP who doesn't have off-the-charts athleticism that most NBA players have. The moment you get complacent, you're done. There are waves of people every year looking to take your job.
 

Jimbodandy

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Great article. Thanks for posting. The story lines up with what Scal said in the other thread - to be a professional athlete, most of them have to be at least a bit off. Yes there are the uber athletes that just succeed, but for most people, their obsessive work ethic is really what sets them apart.
I honestly don't think that any of them are uber athletes that just succeed. Anyone who makes it to top professional leagues in the world worked their ass off, at least for stretches. Some guys just had a much shorter row to hoe, due to a genetic head start of height, frame, length, extra twitchiness, vision, etc.

Sure, we have seen guys that got drafted, got paid, and stopped trying. But they busted their buns to get to where they were first.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I honestly don't think that any of them are uber athletes that just succeed. Anyone who makes it to top professional leagues in the world worked their ass off, at least for stretches. Some guys just had a much shorter row to hoe, due to a genetic head start of height, frame, length, extra twitchiness, vision, etc.

Sure, we have seen guys that got drafted, got paid, and stopped trying. But they busted their buns to get to where they were first.
There have been quite a few bigs and athletic wings who have notoriously had poor work habits only to make it to the league based on their natural physical skills. It takes work to make it but plenty had thrown away opportunities due to their inability to put in the work.
 

Kliq

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There have been quite a few bigs and athletic wings who have notoriously had poor work habits only to make it to the league based on their natural physical skills. It takes work to make it but plenty had thrown away opportunities due to their inability to put in the work.
The horror stories around Anthony Bennett are something.
 

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Back to Pritchard: He was 4 for 6 from 3-point range and 5 for 8 overall tonite against Orlando. Fourteen points in 18 minutes.
 

radsoxfan

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Back to Pritchard: He was 4 for 6 from 3-point range and 5 for 8 overall tonite against Orlando. Fourteen points in 18 minutes.
A functional backup PG shooting 42% from 3 with deep range. Pretty great selection by Danny at the end of Round 1.

Overall he has exceeded my expectations (and I was hopeful to start the year). I’m glad he isn’t a huge liability on D.

His playmaking/assists is really the only moderate disappointment in his game I can think of, though that was never really a big strength. Maybe it’ll improve with time.
 

lovegtm

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A functional backup PG shooting 42% from 3 with deep range. Pretty great selection by Danny at the end of Round 1.

Overall he has exceeded my expectations (and I was hopeful to start the year). I’m glad he isn’t a huge liability on D.

His playmaking/assists is really the only moderate disappointment in his game I can think of, though that was never really a big strength. Maybe it’ll improve with time.
Fortunately, playmaking/assists are way less of a problem on a team with Tatum and Brown. You can get away with a PG who brings the ball up, spaces the floor, and can attack closeouts. His improved ability to stretch his 3-point range out and get his shot off more are good signs.

Also, a lot of unathletic but skilled PGs make improvements up to later ages than you'd think, so there's hope there.
 

Imbricus

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He is short, small, weak and inexperienced
Eh, I don't buy the weak. I hear that a lot here but I don't think it's true. Short with a mediocre wingspan and not that athletic, okay. But watch him sometime when he gets switched onto big guys near the top of the key. He'll bounce his body into them and provide some resistance so they can't just automatically back him down in the paint. In fact, some of them seem surprised by that.

But how his defensive game develops will be a big factor in where his ceiling is certainly. He has to make do with a less-than-ideal NBA body.
 

lovegtm

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Eh, I don't buy the weak. I hear that a lot here but I don't think it's true. Short with a mediocre wingspan and not that athletic, okay. But watch him sometime when he gets switched onto big guys near the top of the key. He'll bounce his body into them and provide some resistance so they can't just automatically back him down in the paint. In fact, some of them seem surprised by that.

But how his defensive game develops will be a big factor in where his ceiling is certainly. He has to make do with a less-than-ideal NBA body.
Yeah, for all his other physical flaws, he's pretty strong.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Fortunately, playmaking/assists are way less of a problem on a team with Tatum and Brown. You can get away with a PG who brings the ball up, spaces the floor, and can attack closeouts. His improved ability to stretch his 3-point range out and get his shot off more are good signs.

Also, a lot of unathletic but skilled PGs make improvements up to later ages than you'd think, so there's hope there.
I think this is exactly why the C's are so inconsistent actually. Lack of a real playmaker.
 

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Probably SSS, but he got trucked by Jordan Clarkson on a couple of possessions a while back. Next game, another small guy backed him down. Maybe his balance was off or he just played those possessions poorly, but it left an impression on me.

Most guys just entering the league need to add strength, and I'm sure that he's working on it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Probably SSS, but he got trucked by Jordan Clarkson on a couple of possessions a while back. Next game, another small guy backed him down. Maybe his balance was off or he just played those possessions poorly, but it left an impression on me.

Most guys just entering the league need to add strength, and I'm sure that he's working on it.
Yeah, but I'd guess 4 year seniors are further along in the strength department than one and done freshman. He has far less to gain I would think.
 

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Yeah, but I'd guess 4 year seniors are further along in the strength department than one and done freshman. He has far less to gain I would think.
Probably, but he wouldn't have needed as much functional strength against Pac12 guards as he does now. A little extra wouldn't be bad. He's going to already have to worry about savvy, beefier guys at his position, nevermind getting switched to wings made of stone like Butler and Kawhi.
 

mostman

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Eh, I don't buy the weak. I hear that a lot here but I don't think it's true. Short with a mediocre wingspan and not that athletic, okay. But watch him sometime when he gets switched onto big guys near the top of the key. He'll bounce his body into them and provide some resistance so they can't just automatically back him down in the paint. In fact, some of them seem surprised by that.

But how his defensive game develops will be a big factor in where his ceiling is certainly. He has to make do with a less-than-ideal NBA body.
There was a play last night where he tossed Wagner basically into the tunnel. He was helping back to cover a cutter and he ran into Wagner and just ran him over. The kid isn’t weak. His issue on post ups is his positioning. To my eye he gets in too close sometimes and has poor footwork. That can be fixed.
 

nighthob

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There was a play last night where he tossed Wagner basically into the tunnel. He was helping back to cover a cutter and he ran into Wagner and just ran him over. The kid isn’t weak. His issue on post ups is his positioning. To my eye he gets in too close sometimes and has poor footwork. That can be fixed.
In fairness lovegtm's mom ran over Less Wagner too.
 

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I don’t think it’s an indictment of Pritchard or his future, but he doesn’t seem ready for playoff basketball two games into the second season. It might just be nerves, but he seems like he’s thinking too much and reacting late on both ends, but especially on defense. The Nets matchup is obviously brutally hard for a rookie pg too. An interesting sidebar to this series will be seeing if he can improve and get 10-15 mpg or if he plays himself out of the rotation. Either way, it should be a valuable learning experience as he heads into his first NBA offseason.
 

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I don’t think it’s an indictment of Pritchard or his future, but he doesn’t seem ready for playoff basketball two games into the second season. It might just be nerves, but he seems like he’s thinking too much and reacting late on both ends, but especially on defense. The Nets matchup is obviously brutally hard for a rookie pg too. An interesting sidebar to this series will be seeing if he can improve and get 10-15 mpg or if he plays himself out of the rotation. Either way, it should be a valuable learning experience as he heads into his first NBA offseason.
Yeah, and it seems like his first shot has a lot of bearing on how confident he looks and how much Brad plays him thereafter. If Pritchard isn't hot out of the gate, his leash is pretty short.

Pritchard really struggled against Ish Smith, but that's a tough matchup for a guard who's not seriously quick. Boston might have been better off trying Waters on Ish.
 
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