A nice reminder that “next years FA class is better.” is not an actionable team building strategy
Offseason rumors
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Olney reports it's for 3/126. Extension takes him through age 37.
https://www.crossingbroad.com/2024/03/phillies-and-zack-wheeler-reportedly-reach-multi-year-contract-extension.html?fbclid=IwAR0keMWoKwtXPQSzUn0HZMZcsclxy64Jr-FebUJ6H-5WxJQcl5NQSvRZ5is
So he's still on his $23.5m contract for this year, then 42/yr from 2025-27? Nice work if you can get it.
Phillies now lead baseball in 2025 projected commitments, they're at ~$229m already.
I'm not sure even the Freewheelin' Dave Dombrowski goes after another pitcher with that much on the books.
They’d still be way over the CBT for 2024, though, and for the third year in a row, so they would pay a 50% surcharge on Montgomery’s salary.
The way Montgomery made some sense for Philly, to me, was for his signing to effectively “replace” Wheeler a year early. That’s obviously not the case.
Now I don’t see Philly as a possibility for Montgomery at all. He’s an upgrade on Taijuan Walker, who is not happy there and was quite bad last year, but Cristopher Sánchez is a breakout candidate this year and they’ve got Abel, McGarry and Painter in the wings. I think DD is just happy to let Boras float his name to help the broader cause.
I know WAR is a flawed metric and all, but by Fangraphs’ version, Wheeler has been the most valuable SP in baseball since he went to Philly. Not sure I would’ve guessed that before I looked, and I definitely wouldn’t have seen it coming back in 2019!
They hope to get Abel to the bigs this year and Painter's projected return is 2025. Ranger Suarez is still arb-eligible for another year in 2025, as well.
Yeah, if anything this 100% takes Philly off as a "mystery team" for Boras to leverage. I just don't see Montgomerys market as anything but TX or the Sox and I think TX has too much tied up already.
Dovetails with Breslow saying on day 1 that they will have to look into trades.
Was anyone actually counting on Wheeler not being extended? I thought it was pretty much a given, just like Cole will definitely not be on the market. The big names have always been Burnes (Boras guy and clearly wanting to hit FA), Fried (rejected Atlanta offers and is a union rep) and Bieber (lol Cleveland).
Would think Snell wouldn't get as much - but it might give guidance for Snell.
Montgomery is 31st - 9.3
Ouch - and Eovaldi is 26th
Snell is 21st on this list - 10.5
Montgomery is 31st - 9.3
Ouch - and Eovaldi is 26th
Even if he wasn't extended, was Wheeler really going to be at the top tier while entering his age 35 season? That's more the Sonny Grey tier rather than the Nola/Snell/Montgomery tier.
He's been good for a while, but that seems like a big time gamble by Dombrowski a season before he had to. Sale-like, if you will. Hope it works better for him.
I think the thinking is that he’s probably more Scherzer / Verlander tier than Gray, although I wouldn’t be comfortable signing him to that contract (and he’s certainly not likely to be headed to Cooperstown like those guys).
Of course, I thought the last one Wheeler signed in Philly was a massive overpay too.
Numbers shift a bit if you just use 2021 - present
Nola is not a top 10 pitcher by Way, and has 10.5 War compared to 9.6 War for Snell.
Nola hasn't missed a start in 3 years though.
The likeliest big ticket FA rotation signing for us would have to be Max Fried, I think. Fried and Giolito are best friends and "are always talking," reportedly.
I don't think it'll amount to any sort of discount rate, but if Giolito rebounds here, enjoys the Bailey-led pitching program and sticks around — all which hardly seems far-fetched to me — I think we've got a good shot at bringing Fried here.
I don't think it'll amount to any sort of discount rate, but if Giolito rebounds here, enjoys the Bailey-led pitching program and sticks around — all which hardly seems far-fetched to me — I think we've got a good shot at bringing Fried here.
Didn't we say the exact same thing about Yoshida and Yamamoto? Professionals don't usually turn down millions of dollars to play with their friends. I mean I guess it happens, but I wouldn't put too much stock in it.
Not to mention that if Giolito rebounds, whether he likes the Bailey program or not, he's opting out and getting a bigger deal
View: https://twitter.com/loumerloni/status/1764681452434624555?s=46
Lou has been money all off-season. You can’t go into 2025 needing to sign 3 starters.
Lou has been money all off-season. You can’t go into 2025 needing to sign 3 starters.
When is the last time that free agency and friends worked in any sport?
It says something about your baseball team when one of your hopes for acquiring more talent hinges on a reclamation project doing just well enough that he is worth keeping but not worth other teams getting into a bidding war over.
Here's to a middling Giolito in 2024.
It pains people but at some point the Sox will have to spend money if they hope to sustainably compete. In this instance, money can replace friendship as driver of outcomes. Its actually fairly common and people atop FSG probably won't be eating out of trash cans anytime soon if that's a concern.
LeBron/Wade/Bosh? Kyrie/Durant? It seems to happen a bunch in basketball.
(Note: I don't think baseball and basketball are analogous in that regard because the salary structures are so different.)
And it's debatable whether any of them left money on the table to join those teams. IIRC, they all got the max possible contract (involving their old teams in sign-and-trades to do so).
Yes this is the whole argument around building your roster and getting better when the chance is there and not waiting on prospects that may never pan out. But, if the owner doesn't want to extend himself to make the team better now there's not much Breslow can do about it.
Yeah max contracts have a ton to do with this. Lebron can only make X; same with Wade and Bosh. At that point it becomes picking where you’re playing and who you’re playing with.
MLB teams can pay guys whatever; it’s a completely different set up with completely different incentives.
I don't think that's right. The Heat's big 3 all took slightly less than the max so that the team could fit them and still compete.
I mean, some people said it about Yoshida and Yamamoto. But those guys also weren't best friends since high school.
Not every free agent is inclined to pitch in Boston, for reasons many of us have brought up a lot. Montgomery, by all accounts a good Southern boy who reportedly wants to go back to Texas, could be one of them. Snell, who's said he wants to play on the west coast, is another. I'm saying that Fried seems less likely to be one of them, and has a trusted friend who can report out directly to him what it's like to play here.
Regardless, obviously not saying it's any kind of sure thing. But I don't see the Dodgers or Phillies in with the way their rotations look, I don't see the Yankees in if they're going to try to keep Soto and maybe Torres and add another year for Cole (and maybe get Snell). Atlanta might make a push, but I think the odds are decent.
Entirely fair but that was kind of a unique situation, even for the NBA.
The point is the sign-a-friend-of-your-real-target feels like one of those strategies that some in desperate fanbases go to as a beacon of hope. Its just doesn't feel like an effective roster building strategy and it excuses ownership from spending.
Don't sell us friendships. Sell us actual baseball talent.
This is a better analysis. The initial reaction was the point about Giolito and Fried being friends. If can’t recall any MLB player ever taking less money to play with a friend; if you have an example of a good player doing so, I’d love to hear it.
If the Sox want Fried they are going to have to top the market.
I really, really don't think one SoSH poster here or any fan of any team anywhere really cares how the $ affects FSG top people. That's not the issue. The issue here is trying to figure out what the fuck the budget is and how Henry is allowing funds to be used. It pains me (and others) that there appears to be a stupid low number. I don't believe anyone is trying to find the best possible team at the cheapest just to show it can be done for less than the Dodgers spend.
NBA stars are just not good comparisons for off the court reasons as well. Guys like Lebron are making more in marketing/merchandising deals than they are playing basketball.
The only somewhat comparable person in MLB is probably Ohtani. Max Fried isn’t getting $25M, $30, $40M a year marketing deals.
That is correct. And whether that's where the Sox will find themselves in 9-12 months is a bit hard to say right now.
This seems like the kind of thing that isn't reported.
I'm prepared as always for the avalanche of posters reminding me that money is the only factor anyone will ever consider ever. My point, as from my original post, was that Fried seems to me the likeliest big ticket starting pitcher free agent signing in our future, mostly because he's excellent and he's left-handed (a rotation need), but in part because he has someone he's close with who can report out what it's like to play here.
Yup. A lot can still happen between now and the end of the season transaction-wise.
Also, considering that they appear to be headed into this season with three guys in the rotation who will almost assuredly be around next year (Bello, Crawford, Houck with Whitlock and Winckowski also apparently in the running), I'm at a loss as to why the hue and cry lately has been that they'll definitely need to sign/acquire three guys next winter. Maybe it's all a bluff and a negotiation tactic to show confidence in these guys so as to not be held up by Boras and his client(s), but maybe, just maybe it's genuine confidence.
I agree we should acquire a guy or two but I'm not sure this is quite so dire. In house we've got:
Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, Fitts (late 2024 ETA per Sox Prospects), Gonzalez (mid 2025 ETA) and Sandlin (late 2025 ETA), with the possibility of Giolito and Pivetta returning (potentially via QO).
It's looking like this year is a big test for the pitching development team. The (very, very) early returns look interesting, though of course we can't take much from it. Still, it seems premature to prioritize the view from the current perch when addressing how many starters we need in 2025.
Chances that is an average major league rotation in 2025 is very very low. Outside of Bello and Crawford, all the guys you listed do not project to be anything but back of the rotation starters. Also if Giolito and Pivetta are better than that they are most likely going to be offered more than the QO if the team doesn't trade them when they are most likely fifth again at the deadline.
Presuming good health, Fried is going to be worth significantly more in years and money than Giolito. No matter how great of friends they are, it doesn't make any sense that Fried would sign with a team because his buddy coming off a bad-to-mediocre year has one year left on his deal in Boston. Fried can go get his best deal and the much-easier-to-sign Giolito can follow – either by opting out after 2024 or joining him the next year. It would be like Montgomery deciding to take a team-friendly 4-5 year deal in Boston because his wife is in town for the first two months of it.
Exactly and when you on the cusp of the prospects arriving someone's got to throw the ball.
You and I have pretty different prescriptions on our lenses, so this reply is less a response to you specifically. The Sox rotation was 8th in MLB last year by xFIP, and that includes Kluber and nine terrible starts from Pivetta. The defense has improved. We'll see what happens.
In general, we're not evaluating these guys' names. All of them are getting their pitches and repertoires revamped by Bailey and co. this year. Some of those tweaks are Bello's learning a slider, Giolito's adding velocity and fastball rise, and so on. It's likely that not all of them will improve, or improve dramatically, but I think there's reason to think that some can. If anyone had projected in 2021 that Kutter Crawford would be a 2024 rotation mainstay, they'd have been laughed off the board.
The odds are decent that what? Fried ends up here? In Boston? Based on what (aside from having his bestest pal in the world potentially on the staff) exactly?
I'm not discounting that people like working with their friends, but that's assuming that Giolito does well and resigns. Or does poor and can't opt out. Even then what makes you think that Sox who are reticent to offer a long-term contract at big bucks to a pitcher who is north of 30 (this is a slight cheat, Fried will be 30 next January)? This ownership group doesn't do that (anymore).
My guess is that he sticks in Atlanta and continues his text thread with Giolito.
You've been paying attention since they signed David Price on December 15, 2015, right? There's your source.
Alex Speier on FanGraphs' Effectively Wild, 2/9/24
"I think the Red Sox have changed strategic positions all the time, and their ownership group ends up being derided for it at times, right? There's this bias against signing pitchers in their thirties and so Jon Lester gets a lowball offer in spring training entering 2014. But then after the 2015 season is a colossal failure — ibid see above — they end up signing David Price for the largest contract ever given to a pitcher at that time. That kind of quote-unquote flip-flopping, if it's in pursuit of winning, I don't think there should be that much complaining about it. You should be willing to reverse a position that's a bad one, right? The question is whether he's [Henry is] giving enough trust to executives to adapt to those realities."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2123-season-preview-series-red-sox-and-padres/
Have you considered using the lens that allows you to see that, of the team's top four starters in xFIP last year, two of them are no longer on the team, a third is a pending free agent, and the fourth did his best work in the bullpen?
Yeah, it's the whole "Give me big names, or give [management] death" perspective. I'd rather have another good bullpen arm than Montgomery at this point, if there are any left out there.
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