I actually think they will bid as high as it needs to go to get him. Maybe that’s wishful thinking and im admittedly ignoring a lot of recent information to get to that opinion.
That said, I agree with your conclusion that it would be shocking if he signed here. It’s hard to imagine why he would? They may make the highest bid but it would be impossible to overwhelm the other bidders and that means the player needs to choose Boston on their merits.
what merits?
I think you’re spot on. Boston could very well bid the most (possible Cohen exception). I think they’ll be close. But if it’s $350m from Boston vs $360m from NYM and $340m from NYY there is no plausible reason he’d choose Boston.
This also coincides with the reports of Boston wanting to acquire a SP via trade first. Any free agent that has winning as a priority at all probably wants to not be the “first piece.” Dealing legitimate prospects for a legitimate pitcher shows a commitment to winning at the big league level that (for whatever reason) hasn’t existed in Boston for several seasons.
I would think they could still land a Boras client as the “first piece”, but they’d probably have to pay a premium to get someone to take that leap. Just using Montgomery as an example, why would one choose Boston’s offer of $130m coming off 3 of 4 last place finishes over $125m from Texas with a WS winning roster already in place and a similarly ranked farm system (MLB for instance still has Tex 10th and Bos 16th)? It’d probably have to be more like $160m from Boston.
He‘d probably need to see another piece added first (ie said trade) or be offered significantly more than Texas offers.
Its a tough spot for Breslow. Either over pay in terms of prospects, over pay in dollars, or have another two years of “evidence” that Boston isn’t committed to winning any more while waiting to see if Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Perales are Betts, Bogaerts, Rutschman, and Gilbert or if they’re more like Kelenic, F Mejia, Nick Senzel and Erick Fede - while more likely somewhere between those two extremes.
My personal take is FSG still IS committed to winning, greenlights said overpay in dollars and thus I think he chooses to overpay in “just” money, but who knows.