Offseason rumors

[zenax]

Houck
Year ---GP/W-L-Sv
2020 -- 3/GS/3-0 --- ERA/0.53 -- OPS/.443
2021 - 13/GS/0-4 --- ERA/3.68 -- OPS/.627
------- 5/GR/1-1-1 - ERA/2.61 -- OPS/.493
2022 -- 4/GS/1-2 --- ERA/4.32 -- OPS/.663
------ 28/GR/4-2-8 - ERA/2.70 -- OPS/.557
2023 - 21/GS/6-10 -- ERA/5.01 -- OPS/.742
-----------------------------------------
Career 41/GS/10-16 - ERA/4.17 -- OPS/.680
------ 33/GR/5-3-9 - ERA/2.68 -- OPS/.570

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

If you’re trading with Seattle, the relevant question is probably “who is making some money who’s salary we can absorb?”

Robbie Ray. His contract to them right now is the albatross that Sale’s is to the Sox - only it’s the 2022 version of said albatross because there are 3 years of it left.

BTV - again, enormous grain of salt - gives Ray and Gilbert combined a -22 value. If the Sox offered Duran (takes over LF for them after they gave up Kleenex) and Pivetta (rotation depth, good out of the ‘pen), BTV considers it too good a deal for the Mariners to validate the trade. Which makes me think it’s at least plausible they’d accept it, of course assuming they do want Snell and he wants them.

Gives the Ms the money to sign Snell and have a (still) filthy rotation of Castillo, Kirby, Snell, Woo and Miller, with Pivetta to cover the 1.5 months Snell routinely misses. Duran is a cheap LHH option that should - ostensibly at least - be average or better in left.

Sox have Bello and Gilbert at the top half of their rotation for multiple seasons. Crawford and Houck seeing what they’ve got this year. Ray should be back around the ASG, which means he covers the 2nd half of the season since Sale will get hurt within around 15 starts.

Unfortunately, that puts the Sox on the hook for $75m for 2.5 seasons of Robbie Ray, but to get Gilbert without giving up any of Anthony, Teel or Mayer, it miget be worth it.

 

[SwedishSoxFan]

Apologies if this is low effort content for the main board but I'm not baseball savvy enough on this side of the Atlantic to figure it out for myself.

Would it be possible for the Red Sox to both sign Yamamoto (or Montgomery) and trade for Corbin Burnes (with the hope of extending him as well)? Or would there be financial constraints that make this highly unlikely?

 

[moondog80]

Apologies if this is low effort content for the main board but I'm not baseball savvy enough on this side of the Atlantic to figure it out for myself.

Would it be possible for the Red Sox to both sign Yamamoto (or Montgomery) and trade for Corbin Burnes (with the hope of extending him as well)? Or would there be financial constraints that make this highly unlikely?

Depends what the budget is. I've seen "20 mil over the threshold" (256 million) thrown around; if that's the target, the have about 76 million so spend. 28 for YY, 25 for Monty and 20 for Burnes is his final arb year does work, but it leaves them very little room for other moves, unless they plan on a payroll upward of 275 mil. So I'd say probably not. One of those guys plus another starter (Lugo, Imanga) plus other improvements elsewhere more likely IMO.

EDIT: I see I read your post wrong. Yes, I think one of YY/Monty plus Brunes is very feasible.

 

[YTF]

Apologies if this is low effort content for the main board but I'm not baseball savvy enough on this side of the Atlantic to figure it out for myself.

Would it be possible for the Red Sox to both sign Yamamoto (or Montgomery) and trade for Corbin Burnes (with the hope of extending him as well)? Or would there be financial constraints that make this highly unlikely?

It's certainly possible, but here's where I'm at. How badly do we want/need Burnes for just one seaon at whatever the cost may be
There is zero chance that that the Sox will be the loan suitor, so I don't think that he comes cheap.

 

[nvalvo]

Something this discussion is ignoring on Burnes (and similarly situated players) is that the incumbent team is the only team not facing draft penalties for signing a player who has presumably turned down a QO. So maybe that incumbent team still has to pay market rate, but it's a somewhat better value for them.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Something this discussion is ignoring on Burnes (and similarly situated players) is that the incumbent team is the only team not facing draft penalties for signing a player who has presumably turned down a QO. So maybe that incumbent team still has to pay market rate, but it's a somewhat better value for them.

True, but if that team is anyone other than the Brewers (in Burnes' case), they've will have paid a price in prospects that is likely in excess of whatever the draft pick value might be.

 

[simplicio]

A better than league average ERA the 2nd time through seems fine/good? MLB average ERA was 4.33 for the year, compared to Houck at 4.03 the 2nd time through.

He also didn't pitch as well as he can last season, left 1 of those games after 4 innings due to being hit in the face with a line drive, & had a higher ratio of 4 inning starts after coming back from that injury, which made it very hard for him to eat & maintain strength.

But also like...compared to who? He was better the 1st 2 times through the order than Bello & Crawford for example. He also averaged 5.05 innings per start compared to 4.76 for Crawford (of course there was also some extenuating circumstances with Crawford).

& one thing all Red Sox pitchers had in common last year was playing in front of a defense that made less outs than any other defense in the league, in a stadium that is about as hitter friendly as any stadium in baseball.

The dreadful infield defense would be even more painful for Houck who was in the 89th percentile for groundballs this past year.

117 guys started 100 innings or more this year:

Tanner Houck: 5.05 IP/S
Jake Irvin: 5.04
Rich Hill: 5.02
Clark Schmidt: 4.95
David Peterson: 4.91
Andrew Heaney: 4.89
Taj Bradley: 4.89
Zach Greinke: 4.85
Trevor Williams: 4.81
Adam Wainwright: 4.81
Michael Kopech: 4.69
Ken Waldichuck: 4.68
Kutter Crawford: 4.68
Luke Weaver: 4.56

That's the bottom of the list, and it includes a bunch of ancient dudes with their arms falling off. It's just not tenable to maintain 2 guys on there.

(edit: tapped publish before finishing the list, apologies)

 

[chrisfont9]

Robbie Ray. His contract to them right now is the albatross that Sale’s is to the Sox - only it’s the 2022 version of said albatross because there are 3 years of it left.

BTV - again, enormous grain of salt - gives Ray and Gilbert combined a -22 value. If the Sox offered Duran (takes over LF for them after they gave up Kleenex) and Pivetta (rotation depth, good out of the ‘pen), BTV considers it too good a deal for the Mariners to validate the trade. Which makes me think it’s at least plausible they’d accept it, of course assuming they do want Snell and he wants them.

Gives the Ms the money to sign Snell and have a (still) filthy rotation of Castillo, Kirby, Snell, Woo and Miller, with Pivetta to cover the 1.5 months Snell routinely misses. Duran is a cheap LHH option that should - ostensibly at least - be average or better in left.

Sox have Bello and Gilbert at the top half of their rotation for multiple seasons. Crawford and Houck seeing what they’ve got this year. Ray should be back around the ASG, which means he covers the 2nd half of the season since Sale will get hurt within around 15 starts.

Unfortunately, that puts the Sox on the hook for $75m for 2.5 seasons of Robbie Ray, but to get Gilbert without giving up any of Anthony, Teel or Mayer, it miget be worth it.

That's pretty good for Seattle. Fans out here are restless so they should do the Snell deal first. I don't need any riots in my neighborhood.

 

[chrisfont9]

Ha. Dude is seeing what Yamamoto is looking at and says, yeah, I’m interested. But he’s a few years from cashing in due to his age so who knows.

Oh for sure. The article says the team will just refuse to post him, but you never know I guess.

 

[JM3]

117 guys started 100 innings or more this year:

Tanner Houck: 5.05 IP/S
Jake Irvin: 5.04
Rich Hill: 5.02
Clark Schmidt: 4.95
David Peterson: 4.91
Andrew Heaney: 4.89
Taj Bradley: 4.89
Zach Greinke: 4.85
Trevor Williams: 4.81
Adam Wainwright: 4.81
Michael Kopech: 4.69
Ken Waldichuck: 4.68
Kutter Crawford: 4.68
Luke Weaver: 4.56

That's the bottom of the list, and it includes a bunch of ancient dudes with their arms falling off. It's just not tenable to maintain 2 guys on there.

(edit: tapped publish before finishing the list, apologies)

I mean... of course it is tenable if they're pitching those innings well & you have plenty of optionable relievers & your other 3 guys are pitching lots of innings. What's the league average? Like a half inning more?

The reason Houck didn't pitch a lot of innings per start was mostly that he was abominable the 3rd time through the order, though, which is the thing that actually needs fixing & is where hopefully Breslow & Bailey can have the biggest impact.

 

[Ronnie_Dobbs]

...3rd time through the order, though, which is the thing that actually needs fixing & is where hopefully Breslow & Bailey can have the biggest impact.

Precisely

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1733579104916492574?s=46


absolutely bananas

Even if he is a great hitter and a great pitcher, that contract sucks so much.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1733579104916492574?s=46


absolutely bananas

Even if he is a great hitter and a great pitcher, that contract sucks so much.

That’s insane

 

[LogansDad]

Insanity.

 

[JM3]

I like it. Happy for everyone involved. The thing I'm most surprised about is that it's 10/$700 instead of 12/$700.

 

[simplicio]

I mean... of course it is tenable if they're pitching those innings well & you have plenty of optionable relievers & your other 3 guys are pitching lots of innings. What's the league average? Like a half inning more?

The reason Houck didn't pitch a lot of innings per start was mostly that he was abominable the 3rd time through the order, though, which is the thing that actually needs fixing & is where hopefully Breslow & Bailey can have the biggest impact.

If Bailey can make one or more of our 4-5 inning guys into reliable guys where an actual quality start feels more like a simple thumbs up than a Christmas miracle, I'm on board. But I really want to be done with the "can ____ be a real starter this year?" era. It's been killing us for 2 years, let's just not do it any more.

 

[JM3]

If Bailey can make one or more of our 4-5 inning guys into reliable guys where an actual quality start feels more like a simple thumbs up than a Christmas miracle, I'm on board. But I really want to be done with the "can ____ be a real starter this year?" era. It's been killing us for 2 years, let's just not do it any more.

I don't think it's really acceptable as a plan like hey let's just run this back. But there are very specific things in his profile that I think make it likely that he's the type of guy that Breslow & Bailey would be as interested in him or more interested in him than other teams.

& they're doing a ton of work adding optionable RHP power arm relief depth which would allow them to deal with slightly shorter starts in a more palatable way if necessary.

But there will hopefully be a couple more shoes to drop, even if it's just like Imanaga & Lugo instead of what we really want.

 

[bloodysox]

View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1733579104916492574?s=46


absolutely bananas

Even if he is a great hitter and a great pitcher, that contract sucks so much.

So relieved he ended up with the Dodgers honestly. I really don't mind them that much and most importantly they're not in the AL.

I was terrified he was going to end up with the Blue Jays, so this is really great news.

Definitely a HUGE risk but if anyone can take it, it's the Dodgers. And if he can return to the 2 way player he was, his level of production could easily live up to the contract (and that's not even factoring in marketing value and the extra revenue he'll bring in).

 

[Otis Foster]

Ohtani to Dodgers, 10 years, 700 MM, per Cotillo

Edit: I’m behind the curve, as always. Does this increase the likelihood that the Skanks will intensify their pursuit of Yamamoto? The Soto trade depleted their pitching depth.

 

[ehaz]

Ohtani to Dodgers, 10 years, 700 MM, per Cotillo

Edit: I’m behind the curve, as always. Does this increase the likelihood that the Skanks will intensify their pursuit of Yamamoto? The Soto trade depleted their pitching depth.

They were always going after Yamamoto and have been one of the top contenders. I don’t think they were ever really in on Ohtani and I don’t think Ohtani ever really considered the Yankees (or Mets).

What this might change is LAD going after Yamamoto. It’s been speculated that had they failed to sign Ohtani, they’d turn to Yamamoto. With the Blue Jays it wasn’t the same concern—but who knows.

 

[bloodysox]

Ohtani to Dodgers, 10 years, 700 MM, per Cotillo

Edit: I’m behind the curve, as always. Does this increase the likelihood that the Skanks will intensify their pursuit of Yamamoto? The Soto trade depleted their pitching depth.

I think acquiring Soto made it unlikely that the Yankees were seriously interested in signing Ohtani.

Yankees were going to be pursuing Yamamoto intensely regardless of Ohtani and now I'm thinking they were never really that interested in Ohtani.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GA7vAYQXYAAuRrY?format=jpg&name=medium

 

[Otis Foster]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GA7vAYQXYAAuRrY?format=jpg&name=medium

Occam’s Razor

 

[jon abbey]

I think acquiring Soto made it unlikely that the Yankees were seriously interested in signing Ohtani.

Yankees were going to be pursuing Yamamoto intensely regardless of Ohtani and now I'm thinking they were never really that interested in Ohtani.

The Yankees never pursued Ohtani, it was never rumored at all.

They have been in massive pursuit of Yamamoto for a long time, it was reported this week that they had at least one representative at every single one of his starts this year, and they have Hideki Matsui and Masahiro Tanaka coming to his meeting with NY on Monday.

 

[nvalvo]

True, but if that team is anyone other than the Brewers (in Burnes' case), they've will have paid a price in prospects that is likely in excess of whatever the draft pick value might be.

Doubtless.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I would add to this discussion whether 2024 is the year to add a FA2B pitcher. If anything, the ALEast is going to be tougher this season than last, depending on whether Toronto adds Ohtani. Wouldn't it make more sense to time such an addition in '25 or '26, when the minor league crop is ready to ascend? I'd rather focus on long-term controllables this year, like Montgomery or Yamamoto than add a Burnes for a season.

I agree with this 100%. If you’re going to trade for Burnes, you need to have it be contingent on an extension being signed within a window. If he’s not interested, or the Brewers refuse, then walk away and shift focus to someone with years of control (like Logan Gilbert, but not necessarily him).

The AL East is going to be a dog fight next year. We should definitely be shooting our shot, but not by trading assets to plug holes for a year.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

The Yankees never pursued Ohtani, it was never rumored at all.

They have been in massive pursuit of Yamamoto for a long time, it was reported this week that they had at least one representative at every single one of his starts this year, and they have Hideki Matsui and Masahiro Tanaka coming to his meeting with NY on Monday.

I wonder if the Red Sox will do the same with Koji Uehara, Daisuke Matsuzaku, Masataka Yoshida, and Kyonsu Irabu.

 

[chrisfont9]

I wonder if the Red Sox will do the same with Koji Uehara, Daisuke Matsuzaku, Masataka Yoshida, and Kyonsu Irabu.

Are any of those guys in Boston? They will probably buzz Yoshida in, although it's pretty likely he and Yamamoto have talked enough already. YY won't care what Matsuzaka has to say, would he? Or Hideo Nomo?

 

[jon abbey]

Matsui works for the Yankees, so that one's easy. I'm impressed that NY is evidently getting Tanaka to come from Japan (presumably), especially since they didn't part on perfect terms.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Are any of those guys in Boston? They will probably buzz Yoshida in, although it's pretty likely he and Yamamoto have talked enough already. YY won't care what Matsuzaka has to say, would he? Or Hideo Nomo?

In Tanaka and Matsui, the Yankees have two guys who spent the entirety of their MLB careers in NY, pitching YY on the Yankees. Sox have a bunch of guys who spent a few years here each, none of whom ended their careers with the org. Feels less impactful, but who knows.

Yankees also offer the ability to play with guys like Judge, Cole, and Soto, while the Sox have Devers….and…ummm

 

[Mike473]

It wouldn't be popular, but considering the division, Henry might be inclined to punt on 2024 and continue down a similar path as the Bloom era. Build the farm, hope for a lottery ticket here and there, and hope the injury bug doesn't bite. The Sox might be having a tough time making the case to free agents, similar to the issues hiring a new GM.

 

[LogansDad]

It wouldn't be popular, but considering the division, Henry might be inclined to punt on 2024 and continue down a similar path as the Bloom era. Build the farm, hope for a lottery ticket here and there, and hope the injury bug doesn't bite. The Sox might be having a tough time making the case to free agents, similar to the issues hiring a new GM.

If they look at it like this, they may as well punt until 2033. Division isn't going to be any easier next year.

 

[BringBackMo]

In Tanaka and Matsui, the Yankees have two guys who spent the entirety of their MLB careers in NY, pitching YY on the Yankees. Sox have a bunch of guys who spent a few years here each, none of whom ended their careers with the org. Feels less impactful, but who knows.

Yankees also offer the ability to play with guys like Judge, Cole, and Soto, while the Sox have Devers….and…ummm

why, Why, WHY can’t the Red Sox have more Japanese players spend the entirety of their major league careers with them so they can be available to be flown in to help with the pursuit of Japanese free agents? This organization is a disaster!

 

[AlNipper49]

People keep complaining because the lack of big signing (even though it’s a frozen market)

But the first month of the Breslow tenure should really encourage people. He is being aggressive, he has struck deals with 4 different CBO’s, he’s dealing from positions of depth to address non depth, and there is creativity.

It’s really encouraging stuff. Add some front line arms, get a second baseman, and go to work.

I like the patience. You could sign the top ten free agents this year and still not field a World Series favorite. I think the goal for this year is to field a team where our positional prospects need to win a job rather than being pushed into service out of necessity. If we can then use a larger portion of the 77m or so available on starting pitching depth now we’re cooking.

If the Sox want someone good, and they acquire him in a trade, it’s either going to be on a massive overpay, a hard-to-sign guy on the last year of his contract or both.

There is no team that’s going to gift you a cost controlled number one or two for Bobby Dalbec. So you better choose which of the two scenarios you’d rather live in. Because the perfect deal is not out there—and that’s what sunk Bloom. You keep waiting for the perfect deal and this team is going to get worse while their competition gets better.

And I’m not saying that Breslow is doing this but man, sometimes this board gets ridiculous with their demands. Burnes is a really good pitcher and there’s a reason why Milwaukee seems open to dealing him. Do you want the headache of a Boras negation? Do you want to lose some good players? That’s what good to great pitching come with.

Yup, acquiring good pitching is a lottery ticket. Trading seems the best path (at least in this market). So say we give up Houck. We lose a cost controlled pitcher in a year when cost control isn’t important to us. It is for the Brewers. This is exactly the way to acquire pitching. It worked 100% perfectly for Sale (prior to the extension of course). Corbin will pitch more meaningful and more innings that Houck in 2024. Including someone like Yorke is a cost of doing business and the Sox would be dealing from a position of strength. One can only have so many middle infield prospects.

 

[soxhop411]

I like the patience. You could sign the top ten free agents this year and still not field a World Series favorite. I think the goal for this year is to field a team where our positional prospects need to win a job rather than being pushed into service out of necessity. If we can then use a larger portion of the 77m or so available on starting pitching depth now we’re cooking.

Yup, acquiring good pitching is a lottery ticket. Trading seems the best path (at least in this market). So say we give up Houck. We lose a cost controlled pitcher in a year when cost control isn’t important to us. It is for the Brewers. This is exactly the way to acquire pitching. It worked 100% perfectly for Sale (prior to the extension of course). Corbin will pitch more meaningful and more innings that Houck in 2024. Including someone like Yorke is a cost of doing business and the Sox would be dealing from a position of strength. One can only have so many middle infield prospects.

Whats been a bit surprising the past two seasons is how few leaks wrt to trades or signings have come out of the sox FO. It seemed like it used to be fairly common for the sox FO to leak FA/trades plans and negotiations like a boat with holes in it.

Devers, Yoshida, O’Neil are all moves that pretty much came out of nowhere. (Or the local/national media was scooped by a DR based reporter in the case of Devers).

 

[chrisfont9]

In Tanaka and Matsui, the Yankees have two guys who spent the entirety of their MLB careers in NY, pitching YY on the Yankees. Sox have a bunch of guys who spent a few years here each, none of whom ended their careers with the org. Feels less impactful, but who knows.

Yankees also offer the ability to play with guys like Judge, Cole, and Soto, while the Sox have Devers….and…ummm

Tanaka and Matsui had good views of the Sox' championship drives, mostly back when Yamamoto was in elementary school.

Anyway, the lack of news will continue well into or beyond next week. Sounds like he's taking his time.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I was also wrong about Matsui- he played for the Angels, A’s, and Rays from 2010-2012 which frankly I don’t recall at all!

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I was also wrong about Matsui- he played for the Angels, A’s, and Rays from 2010-2012 which frankly I don’t recall at all!

The pornography purveyors of those municipalities never had better years. They remember.

 

[AlNipper49]

Whats been a bit surprising the past two seasons is how few leaks wrt to trades or signings have come out of the sox FO. It seemed like it used to be fairly common for the sox FO to leak FA/trades plans and negotiations like a boat with holes in it.

Devers, Yoshida, O’Neil are all moves that pretty much came out of nowhere. (Or the local/national media was scooped by a DR based reporter in the case of Devers).

Love it. Showing your cards in any business is a sign of weakness.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

The pornography purveyors of those municipalities never had better years. They remember.

Will we someday see a Drops-of-God-like competition to inherit his collection?

 

[chrisfont9]

If they look at it like this, they may as well punt until 2033. Division isn't going to be any easier next year.

If Anthony, Teel and Mayer all come up in 2025, that would be a watershed moment worth planning around. But you still spend this year locking up SP if you can get anyone solid on a not-insane deal, and elevating the expectations, shoring up weaknesses etc.

 

[Quatchie]

Eury Perez is a name that does not come up much but would seem to match what the Sox are looking for.

 

[Apisith]

Heyman reports Sox not part of favourites for Yamamoto and Bradford reports that Snell is on the the Sox’s radar. Maybe it’s copium but is this Yamamoto’s agent saying we need to up our offer and our FO saying we have other options?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Heyman reports Sox not part of favourites for Yamamoto and Bradford reports that Snell is on the the Sox’s radar. Maybe it’s copium but is this Yamamoto’s agent saying we need to up our offer and our FO saying we have other options?

That approach would be a foolish one for the Sox. Yamamoto doesn’t need the Sox involved to get what he wants. At this point though, I would be pretty shocked if the Sox landed him. I just don’t see them paying what it’ll take.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Heyman reports Sox not part of favourites for Yamamoto and Bradford reports that Snell is on the the Sox’s radar. Maybe it’s copium but is this Yamamoto’s agent saying we need to up our offer and our FO saying we have other options?

I don’t think people are putting enough weight on the fact these guys want to sign with committed winning organizations, and the Red Sox have failed to be that for a while now.

It really matters.

 

[burstnbloom]

That approach would be a foolish one for the Sox. Yamamoto doesn’t need the Sox involved to get what he wants. At this point though, I would be pretty shocked if the Sox landed him. I just don’t see them paying what it’ll take.

I actually think they will bid as high as it needs to go to get him. Maybe that’s wishful thinking and im admittedly ignoring a lot of recent information to get to that opinion.

That said, I agree with your conclusion that it would be shocking if he signed here. It’s hard to imagine why he would? They may make the highest bid but it would be impossible to overwhelm the other bidders and that means the player needs to choose Boston on their merits.

what merits?

 

[YTF]

I don’t think people are putting enough weight on the fact these guys want to sign with committed winning organizations, and the Red Sox have failed to be that for a while now.

It really matters.

Yes the 3 last place finishes in 4 seasons stand out, but IMO saying that Boston isn't a committed, winning organization is fine only if you're willing to ignore the successes of the team under the SAME ownership over the course of the past 20 seasons. A World Series championship in '18 and were a game from a World Series appearance in '21. Sure, some might see this response as carrying water for billionaires, but it's fact. YMMV as to what "in a while" might be, but I think you have to include those seasons even if we're just talking recently. All of that said it's up to Yamamoto and his representation to do whatever research they deem necessary to make the decision that is best for the player.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Yes the 3 last place finishes in 4 seasons stand out, but IMO saying that Boston isn't a committed, winning organization is fine only if you're willing to ignore the successes of the team under the SAME ownership over the course of the past 20 seasons. A World Series championship in '18 and were a game from a World Series appearance in '21. Sure, some might see this response as carrying water for billionaires, but it's fact. YMMV as to what "in a while" might be, but I think you have to include those seasons even if we're just talking recently. All of that said it's up to Yamamoto and his representation to do whatever research they deem necessary to make the decision that is best for the player.

People care about now. How could someone meet with Steve Cohen and then John Henry and come to any conclusion other than Cohen is more committed to winning?

I’m someone who has defended the ownership group. But it’s a different world now. You have financial outliers and the Red Sox aren’t one of them.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I actually think they will bid as high as it needs to go to get him. Maybe that’s wishful thinking and im admittedly ignoring a lot of recent information to get to that opinion.

That said, I agree with your conclusion that it would be shocking if he signed here. It’s hard to imagine why he would? They may make the highest bid but it would be impossible to overwhelm the other bidders and that means the player needs to choose Boston on their merits.

what merits?

I think you’re spot on. Boston could very well bid the most (possible Cohen exception). I think they’ll be close. But if it’s $350m from Boston vs $360m from NYM and $340m from NYY there is no plausible reason he’d choose Boston.

This also coincides with the reports of Boston wanting to acquire a SP via trade first. Any free agent that has winning as a priority at all probably wants to not be the “first piece.” Dealing legitimate prospects for a legitimate pitcher shows a commitment to winning at the big league level that (for whatever reason) hasn’t existed in Boston for several seasons.

I would think they could still land a Boras client as the “first piece”, but they’d probably have to pay a premium to get someone to take that leap. Just using Montgomery as an example, why would one choose Boston’s offer of $130m coming off 3 of 4 last place finishes over $125m from Texas with a WS winning roster already in place and a similarly ranked farm system (MLB for instance still has Tex 10th and Bos 16th)? It’d probably have to be more like $160m from Boston.

He‘d probably need to see another piece added first (ie said trade) or be offered significantly more than Texas offers.

Its a tough spot for Breslow. Either over pay in terms of prospects, over pay in dollars, or have another two years of “evidence” that Boston isn’t committed to winning any more while waiting to see if Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Perales are Betts, Bogaerts, Rutschman, and Gilbert or if they’re more like Kelenic, F Mejia, Nick Senzel and Erick Fede - while more likely somewhere between those two extremes.

My personal take is FSG still IS committed to winning, greenlights said overpay in dollars and thus I think he chooses to overpay in “just” money, but who knows.