And we're going to surround this great prospect with an over the hill receiving corps, an injury prone OL, and an offensive coordinator who hasn't learned anything new since 2008. Can't wait.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Trade Uche, who’s the type of player Bill never resigns, and Dugger, who is already at his career peak and is not a game changer anyway.
Probably should field offers on Bourne and Henry. But I’m very much concerned we’ll see nothing happen at all.
Probably should field offers on Bourne and Henry. But I’m very much concerned we’ll see nothing happen at all.
The Patriots really need to be honest with themselves but they probably won't because of who is running football operations. The whole roster needs to be ripped to the studs and built back up.
the defensive half of the roster is pretty good with even reasonable health. Obviously injuries happen to every team, but the defense is fine. They have some complementary pieces on offense.
The idea that it needs to be “ripped to the studs” is wildly pessimistic. The offense needs 4-5 noticeable improvements, unfortunately at hard to find and very expensive positions.
but put an above average QB and gamebreaking WR on this team and they’re a playoff contender. Not elite. But almost certainly in the mix below the top AFC teams.
unfortunately, I don’t see a new QB or big time WR as realistic outcomes in the off-season. So it’s probably another losing year next year unless the D can carry them.
all of this is assuming they retain their few good pending free agents (Onwenu, Henry and Dugger specifically)
Bourne got hurt today and Uche is banged up. Doubt they move either of them. Definitely can’t see Bourne going, I assume they will want to bring him back. Trading Dugger would make no sense to me. He’s one of their best young defensive players and while you’re right he isn’t a game breaker, it isn’t really his job to be. What he’s good at is valuable and worth more to retain than get a 3rd round pick which is unlikely to amount to much of anything.
Henry I’d probably try to retain next year and has close to no trade value I don’t think. Most playoff contenders have decent TE and those who don’t aren’t going to part with anything of value for 8 games of solid but unspectacular play.
if trades in football were more common like in the NHL or MLB, sure, a firesale would be preferable. But there’s so few trades in the NFL I just can’t see or expect more than maybe Uche if he’s healthy enough. And whatever 4th or 5th round pick you could get for him isn’t going to be an exciting return
I suggested Dugger as I don’t see the Pats paying him for his decline years. Remember he was a 25 y/o rookie.
But agree that nobody on the roster is going to generate much return.
The guys on the roster I think could hypothetically move and get some type of draft return (mostly not good picks) are probably Mac, Uche, maybe Henry, maybe Dugger that's about it.
Nobody else fits the bill really of someone another team would give up assets for and we would want to move (talent, age, salary reasons etc.).
Nobody else fits the bill really of someone another team would give up assets for and we would want to move (talent, age, salary reasons etc.).
This seems about right. I think Onwenu and Dugger are players you plan to keep. For instance, you could tag Dugger at about a 15M salary, which shouldn’t be a big deal given the cap room they’re slated to have.
The Bills win is going to make a big difference in the draft I bet. SMH.
Getting more specific, here are the guys who are decent or have promise and signed after the 24-25 season, or young enough that you'd probably want to re-sign them:
Mac, under the 5th year option, one could argue is worth keeping
Boutte
Douglas
Strange
Onwenu could be re-signed at the right price, especially if he sticks better at RT
Jury out on the young OL, but so far not great
That's it on offense, everyone else is old or bad. Maybe Henry will be re-signed but you'd want to improve on that position at his age most likely. Juju and Parker will be in the last year of their crummy deals and probably cut if they're not gone sooner.
Defense:
Barmore is a extension target
Bentley
Gonzalez
Peppers
K White
Others are maybes like Godchaux
I'm less worried about the defense because Belichick is better at finding defenders but the offense has really nothing. Yes if they get 4-5 difference makers and fill in the rest with pieces that aren't horrible they'd be good but you just essentially described ripping it to the studs.
There will be a lot of cap space to find decent pieces (not stars) on the FA market so you could definitely put together a contender by 2025, if you get the star pieces, but of course they've been shit at identifying those more minor pieces too.
I think the roster needs more than this on both sides, but even if you're right "4-5 noticeable improvements" may as well mean blow it up. By the time you could get these players, unless you absolutely nail the offseason and guys already on the roster are making strides, the rest of your roster is basically going to turn over just because of how the NFL works.
Getting more specific, here are the guys who are decent or have promise and signed after the 24-25 season, or young enough that you'd probably want to re-sign them:
Mac, under the 5th year option, one could argue is worth keeping
Boutte
Douglas
Strange
Onwenu could be re-signed at the right price, especially if he sticks better at RT
Jury out on the young OL, but so far not great
That's it on offense, everyone else is old or bad. Maybe Henry will be re-signed but you'd want to improve on that position at his age most likely. Juju and Parker will be in the last year of their crummy deals and probably cut if they're not gone sooner.
Defense:
Barmore is a extension target
Bentley
Gonzalez
Peppers
K White
Others are maybes like Godchaux
I'm less worried about the defense because Belichick is better at finding defenders but the offense has really nothing. Yes if they get 4-5 difference makers and fill in the rest with pieces that aren't horrible they'd be good but you just essentially described ripping it to the studs.
There will be a lot of cap space to find decent pieces (not stars) on the FA market so you could definitely put together a contender by 2025, if you get the star pieces, but of course they've been shit at identifying those more minor pieces too.
Don't love the Cardinals at 1-7, they're as likely to draft Caleb Williams as anyone.
They need help so badly any top 5 pick would be fine though.
They need help so badly any top 5 pick would be fine though.
I like Dugger but is he a $15m guy? Honest question, I don’t really follow cap math that closely.
How can anyone with a straight face say Mac would bring back anything? There's a lifetime of internet bandwidth on SoSH lamenting how he's a terrible terrible QB (and rightfully so) and people think he will bring something back?
If Bill had an open offer to the entire league "Mac for your 6th rounder " I'm not sure how many takers there are.
If Bill had an open offer to the entire league "Mac for your 6th rounder " I'm not sure how many takers there are.
30 or so?
Mac is not very good as an NFL starter, but most discussions of substance here are about whether you exercise the 5th year option. He's an upgrade for say the Vikings over Jaren Hall, couple other places he's an upgrade over the guy starting due to injury. But also, he'd be dirt cheap next year and a good option for a top backup for a team or swing starter for a team drafting their QB.
Josh Dobbs and a 7th got a 5th, Mayfield got a 5th that becomes a 4th, Darnold got a 2nd 4th and 6th.
so yeah Mac would bring back something
Could the vikings be interested in Mac? Seems like the best option and someone who could come in and "possibly" be successful with the weapons the Vikings have.
They have a pretty easy schedule for the next few games and easily could get back into the playoff race.
Edit: missed CD saying something similar before me.
They have a pretty easy schedule for the next few games and easily could get back into the playoff race.
Edit: missed CD saying something similar before me.
I've been wondering a lot about getting Murray from the Cards if they can't get one of the top two QBs. If Willams and Drake are gone, use their top pick for that Harrison kid or some other serious offensive weapon and get Murray, though probably not for Mac because I doubt the Cards would want him right after assumedly getting one of those two QBs. The Cards are giving every indication that they're done with Murray, so the Pats might get him for not much comparatively.
I'm a pretty Patriot-centric football fan, thus not that up on the rest of the league, so maybe there's something I'm not aware of here about Murray.
The Pats are BB. He is focused on winning games he can't. It's sad, but he's going to stick with this and we'll see what happens end of season.
51, 45, and 55 million dollar cap hits before cutting him gets reasonable. I keep catching myself thinking he's an under-discussed option - like was discussed with Cousins I think the 2023 Pats are in a significantly different place right now with a healthy version of him at QB. But the money is crazy for a player who might not be a top 10 QB.
Who's paying the $35.3mm of guaranteed salary for 2024? I get the fantasy trade element of a Murray trade, but the contract is a real thing, with real cap consequences. Trading for Murray means using 40% of your currently available 2024 cap space.
And who already has a reputation of not being a super hard worker. Hard pass on Murray for me. Once the athleticism goes, what do you have left here? Too short, IMO.
Oh I get it. 100%. At the same time, they have crazy gobs of cap space and using a lot of that for a QB isn’t the worst investment in the world.
I know it’ll never ever happen, particularly with BB running the show. My post was largely tongue in cheek.
Better tongue in cheek is to trade Mac and a 6th for Justin Fields. CHI can draft one of Williams/Maye (with Mac as caretaker until they're ready) and NE can draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
The funny thing here is that the NFL is the only league that DOESN'T have a lottery and the #1 pick in a draft with a good QB prospect is super valuable even if you don't like that QB prospect. So no you're not likely to amass a bunch of picks or get future first rounders for anyone unless you find a nuts team who wants your superstar (Jamal Adams) but if you do really suck you can be sure which pick you're going to get.
The Evil Genius Belichick thing to do, if he was the guy that the country thought he was, would be absolutely to tank this year (or in 2020) since you can control the outcome and the value is so high, and either take the prospect or trade down and get a pick haul. But BB doesn't know how to do that. If he did they would probably install a lottery or take away the pick...
The Krafts are facing a real attention deficit the rest of the season. It's going to be very difficult for them to resist making a big splash at QB for 2024. Fans will turn out to watch winning, of course, but they'll also turn out to see potential, and nothing sells the latter like a shiny, highly drafted QB. None of the reclamation project/scrap heap guys are exciting at all (and I include McCorkle J. in that group right now).
Betting line went from Pats -3 yesterday to Pats -3.5 today. Either the sharps came in on the Pats yesterday or the oddsmakers adjusted because Washington's pass rush walk out the door today.
I would have traded everyone on this offense except Pop Douglas and slept like a baby afterward. This was a missed opportunity.
The only offensive player traded was Donovan Peoples Jones for a 25 6th. And I'd argue DPJ is better than any NE wr with Bourne out. There was no market for any offensive players. It takes 2 to make a deal.
I have to think Gesicki or Henry would have some value, Trent Brown has some value.
That's probably the same reason nobody else was interested in trading anything for them.
Everyone has enough trash at the back of their rosters. They wouldn’t want any of Bill’s.
The two tight ends have sucked all year, and Brown is playing on one leg according to media reports. There is literally no one on this offense that anyone would take for free, let alone pay draft capital for. Sure Pop Douglas looks like he might be able to play a little, but any team looking to buy has 3/4 guys better than him, so thanks but no thanks was probably the answers if Bill even bothered calling teams.
Let me help.
Kyler Murray blows. He can't stay healthy, and he's owed about $175 million over the next few years.
Other than that, it could be a good move. If you're Patriot-centric, go back and re-watch the 2020 game when he came into Foxboro with a 6-4 Cardinals team against a 4-6 Pats team (coming off a loss to the 4-12 Texans). Cam Newton went 9/18 for 84 yards and 2 interceptions. The Pats ran 30 times for 110 yards (like 3.5ypc), and somehow, the Pats won that game 20-17.
Because Kyler Murray blows.
Dane Brugler updated his top 50 for the athletic. In his top 13 are 10 players who fit major offensive needs on the patriots. QB (2) WR (4) OT (3) TE (1). The other 3 are all edge guys.
Also a need area.
Though really what isn't a need area for the Patriots... S, DT, ILB, RB I guess?
CB shouldn’t be a need. The Pats could easily roll in 2024 with Jack Jones, Jon Jones, Gonzalez, and Jackson as their top 4, which, if healthy, is as good a group as any in the NFL.
But that won’t stop BB from drafting one that he likes anyway.
Oh I agree, and I personally think those are 3 of the 4 highest value positions, you can make the case for a truly elite EDGE over a non-elite at those positions, I guess you could go TE if you think Bowers is generational.
I think if you can land a quality FA WR like Ridley or Evans, draft Harrison Jr or Nabers, and pair them with Pop, WR can be fixed quickly. Especially because the Patriots should have great draft and cap capital.
QB…gets harder. Particularly if you draft a stud WR early. But, for whatever it’s worth (so, nothing), I like a several QBs that may go in R2.
QB…gets harder. Particularly if you draft a stud WR early. But, for whatever it’s worth (so, nothing), I like a several QBs that may go in R2.
Did Murray have a study clause in his contract because the Cardinals were having trouble getting him to commit to film study? Doesn’t seem like the Patriot way.
I am glad to hear you say that he can block. I wasn't sure but he definitely seems like he has the size to be an effective blocker. He also has a cool helmet that reminds me of Bird Man from Rick and Morty.