The thing the Heat have done incredibly well is exploit defensive weaknesses in short bursts in the second half. They play rope a dope for a while, find a weak link, and the destroy it over a 10 minute stretch in the second half, where teams are simply unable to get stops against them and the game has largely been decided.
We can use words like lucky or improbable, but this is not an accident. They absolutely abused Jokic in that fourth quarter. Look at their second halves. Some of this Bucks games? Holy shit. This is not just an “every team makes runs” kind of thing. They have consistently shown the ability to hang around and then throw a 35 to 40 point quarter in the second half at you before you can blink. It’s just too consistent to be luck. They seem to have no pride in who has to be the guy. Once they find the week link, they use anyone on the court who is needed to exploit it.
Less talented? Maybe. But figuring out exactly what you need to do to win basketball games is a hell of a talent this time of year.
Denver has had line ups that have shut the Heat down and created opportunities the other way. They also did a really nice job hiding Jokic on defense in game 1, and they will adjust. They are well coached and will have 2 days to watch tape to break down whatever the fuck they were doing in that hot mess of a fourth quarter. But if they adjust in a way that leaves a hole somewhere else, I am not betting against the Heat’s ability to find it. One thing I will watch is their time outs. Close and very late, I think they almost have to swap defense for offense and get Jokic the hell out of the game when defending. To do that they will need time outs to get him back in.
Alternatively, Denver is capable of just out scoring you. Not giving a fuck because they can’t be stopped. It is what they did to Phoenix. We haven’t seen that Denver yet in the finals.