I think the big difference here is the relative dearth of names that are even remotely exciting, and the market is much different now than it was for those past limited drops so I'd expect the no-names to be closer to the $75-100 range. I was really on the fence after researching it last night but decided to go for it because maybe I'd get one of those few star players and/or hit the serial number lottery. But I think the vast majority of packs will lose.
The bubble has mostly burst the past few days. A lot of accounts are down significantly, and today's rare pack was the first-ever where you were not guaranteed to make your money back by selling the moments in the pack. As I've said a few times in the thread, there's likely one last bubble/significant market catalyst to come -- whenever Top Shot starts marketing itself heavily and they get a big influx of users. Top Shot's trying to encourage users to use Showcases to display their moments and demonstrate the collectable element of these moments.
My pack was meh except for a 200-serial Oladipo, which may be enough to get me to a positive ROI on the pack. Livetoken (FWIW) says that my Oladipo's FMV is $98, which combined with my five $4-ish moments would leave me about $30 in the red. I'm pretty confident I'll ultimately do better than $98, but we'll see.
Yeah, I got a bad number naz reid, one of if not the worst of the rares, a common luka, which is nice but still a common and all of those have crashed lately, and 3 near min value commons, so we'll see what happens, I'm guessing I'll end up pretty close to even if I wait it out since the reid isn't in a challenge yet and I expect the luka to go up some because it's luka.
Some details for those interested. Gotta enter the waiting room to play the trivia game. : "Please note that Trivia will only be accessible once collectors enter the waiting room so today’s game will only be a available to collectors that have pre-registered for today’s pack release (Release 34)"
It actually ran pretty smoothly and wasn't too bad. I came no where close to the top 25. Going to need my friend Google handy next time to stand a chance.
I'm just being a smart ass. If it's fun for you, then great. My assessment is based on the fact that you're competing against thousands also armed with Google so the expectation of winning is low + the fact that I have other work I can be doing for profit during that time.
Oh your assessment is not wrong. It is pretty much a waste of time. I was in the middle of a meeting for work listening to an update on a project that doesn't directly involve me, so I figured I'd check it out and update the thread. It wasn't a complete disaster, like I was half expecting.
This was my plan until I discovered how long it takes US mail to get into Canada.
I feel like I kind of assumed they were doing so already, seems like a very obvious feature.
Nope. You know exactly what you are getting in every pack except for which players (and which serial numbers). If the pack contains a guaranteed rare card, the retail price is jacked up accordingly.
Just went down a quick rabbit hole on this and apparently they cannot do so because of something called "loot box laws" in some countries which is, apparently, akin to gambling.
There are rare moments inserted into the lower tier packs, they just call them limited edition instead of rare, but it's the same thing
Yeah, that's not exactly what I'm talking about. They're never going to have the same impact as parallels/inserts. But I suppose this may be their chosen workaround to the loot box laws JZ discovered.
There are moments in these packs that have a similar mint count to those you consider "rare". They're much rarer in these than almost any insert in a baseball card pack, so I'm not sure what you're talking about if you don't consider a few thousand out of 500k moments to be rare.
I understand this. I still contend that having parallel / inserts rather than cards that are still part of the base set would be much more impactful from a marketing (and potentially, value) perspective. Not only does it more explicitly distinguish the rare cards, but it allows them to have coverage across a bunch of star players too, as opposed to what they have now.
Yeah I struck out too but I appreciated the fact that I was at least given a chance.
Don't know what it will be yet, but each of the last 3 days you could pre-order a moment that would end up being from one of that days summer league games, and you could buy up to 10 of the moment for $5 each, and they were only sold by going to a summer league day and buying them from the topshot kiosk. There was no limit on how many they made, it was just however many people paid for, first 2 days they ended up making between 2 and 3k total and as of now they're selling on the marketplace for between $70 and $80. I think they've already said the 3 will eventually be part of a summer challenge with the next set of moments they launch.
I think they said they're saving people that haven't had a moment before for next season, so it won't be Cade, they may have even announced already who the moment of the day was, I'm not sure. I'm guessing whoever it is the price will settle in to the same range as the other 2 since people will either want all of them or none of them at those prices. Pritchard or Nesmith would be cool since they both had big games, but I don't know if I'd keep one anyway even if it were one of them.
And prices for these are kind of ridiculous, $9 common drop and the cheapest any wnba moment is now is currently $13, and that's even after the market dropped some from last night. If anyone bought a pack they should probably either buy 2 more wnba moments to do the challenge or sell them all while the market is high.
Agreed, but there will be several more drops of these same moments of these same players probably in the next few weeks, so if you're buying them to hold because they're HOFers it doesn't make much sense to buy now
