NBA Top Shot

AlNipper49

Huge Member
Dope
Apr 3, 2001
41,112
Mtigawi
I'm along for the ride as of today. I actually meant to buy when Nip first posted a couple weeks ago and wish I had. Used profits from the last few weeks of my KuCoin lending, so I'm playing with house money in a way.

It was also a learning experience. I chose to tranfer the OMI coin off of BitForex and into a local Trust wallet, adding OMI as a custom coin in the app. Of course, I missed an important step (forgot to set the OMI network from ETH to GoChain) and stupidly transferred the entire lot of coins at once rather than sending a test transaction. So I ended up spending a couple hours today troubleshooting, figuring out why my coin wasn't appearing in the wallet, and (luckily) learning that there was a somewhat convoluted way to recover the funds. Almost a costly mistake!
Complete pain in the balls. I still do that occasionally with crap on my metamask.
 

riboflav

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Jan 20, 2006
8,152
NOVA
For those of you able to log in (I never can for whatever reason) there's a drop in 22 minutes.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
41,122
Have to assume a fully open drop like this will depress the market for a bit after the orders come in as thousands more than normal get access. Seems like there is no limit, aside from joining in the 2 day window.

I started with about 48k in front of me.
 

nattysez

Member
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Sep 30, 2010
5,272
It was initially listed as a 2.5m pack drop, though they seem to have backed off on that. Suffice it to say that they want every Top Shot account willing to spend $9 to get a pack, so whatever that number looks like will be how many packs they ultimately distribute.

Something interesting happened this morning. The Seeing Stars Challenge 1 ended and people immediately flooded the market with low asks for the Seeing Stars cards required for that challenge. Harden's moment, for example, was going for as little as $78 (it's already back up into the low $100s), and few of those Seeing Stars moments have recovered fully. The next time a challenge like that ends, keep an eye on the market immediately following the challenge.

I don't think the Rising Stars challenge ending tomorrow is a great opportunity, because the only really good moments in that challenge are the Lamelo and arguably the Wiseman (which are out of my price range). I bet some of the All-Star cards crater when that challenge ends in a few days.
 
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djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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Have to assume a fully open drop like this will depress the market for a bit after the orders come in as thousands more than normal get access. Seems like there is no limit, aside from joining in the 2 day window.

I started with about 48k in front of me.
The market was already depressed today as of the announcement. Everyone knows what's coming and is trying to beat it.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,272
TopShot says they sold "325,000+" packs over their two-day window. I'm not sure what to make of that number.

Edited to add: I've spent time today watching people setting money on fire buying the KD Seeing Stars moment and then reselling it a short time later for a $20-$100 loss. I guess one benefit of blockchain is that it lets you see how willing people are to buy high and panic-sell low.
 
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djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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TopShot says they sold "325,000+" packs over their two-day window. I'm not sure what to make of that number.
Makes a lot more sense than 2.5M. I don't think anything in that order of magnitude was even physically possible given what we know about the serial numbers in this series.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Jun 6, 2012
5,314
Shit I had a number in the 30k range, saw that it was paused with around 19k in front of me, went to walk the dog and when I came back it was over. FML.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
11,296
Santa Monica
CNBC saying prices down 90% in TopShot. Is that true? The media gets most technical things wrong, so I doubt they have a handle on this.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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CNBC saying prices down 90% in TopShot. Is that true? The media gets most technical things wrong, so I doubt they have a handle on this.
90% since when? Yeah, I’m sure it’s probably close to that if your reference point is from before many here got involved. The prices were a little out of control. Heck, I’ve seen a lot of market prices reduced by half.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
11,296
Santa Monica
90% since when? Yeah, I’m sure it’s probably close to that if your reference point is from before many here got involved. The prices were a little out of control. Heck, I’ve seen a lot of market prices reduced by half.
Probably from the utmost highs. That's how CNBC rolls, they want to sensationalize everything.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,272
I have to say, I'm pretty frustrated with Top Shot at this point. They have serious infrastructure issues. They took the whole site down for about 24 hours earlier this week for "maintenance," then as soon as they started trying to release the pre-order packs tonight, the site has been acting up and has wound up going down for maintenance repeatedly.

Meanwhile, they continue to give very mixed responses about off-market transactions (e.g., selling a pack or Moment on eBay). Their CEO claimed in a Discord comment that off-market transactions are "against the ToS," but a careful review of the ToS shows that this is absolutely not true. I suspect their corporate strategy is to act like off-market transactions are "against the rules" even if they aren't, because they know that they can't legally bar users from exchanging something they supposedly own a property interest in with another user.

They also still haven't fixed the long delays in getting people the right to withdraw their money. 6-7 weeks still seems like the average delay.

Lastly, they have a serious problem with users using bots and multiple accounts to scoop up packs and low-priced moments and don't seem to have much interest in fixing those issues (or can't spend much time on fixing them due to their major infrastructure woes).

Anyway, I think there's a kernel of a good idea here, but the execution thus far sucks. It seems like their plan is to have everything operating smoothly in time for a big marketing push during the playoffs, but I'll believe it when I see it.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
7,607
$999 drop tomorrow, 2400ish packs, but only eligible if at 3pm today you had done any 1 of the following:

Currently held 15+ moments
Currently held 2+ rares
Currently held 1+ legendary
Had spent $999+ in the marketplace

I only have 12 so I'm out, oh well
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
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I was a bit disappointed that I only have 11 moments... then I realized that I should not spend $999 on a pack even if I'm going to make it back.
It turns out they are doing a second drop of a common pack if you qualified for the first drop but don't get the $999 pack. Not clear how big the second drop will be.

Anyway, the prices have dropped precipitously today, so I'm just trying to snipe super-cheap moments and saving the rest of my Dapper balance for future pack drops.

I'm not putting any new money into the site until I can withdraw (which I suspect it at least two months away).
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
7,607
It turns out they are doing a second drop of a common pack if you qualified for the first drop but don't get the $999 pack. Not clear how big the second drop will be.

Anyway, the prices have dropped precipitously today, so I'm just trying to snipe super-cheap moments and saving the rest of my Dapper balance for future pack drops.

I'm not putting any new money into the site until I can withdraw (which I suspect it at least two months away).
When did you start? I started in late feb/early march and just got withdrawal access several days ago and have one pending in USDC both because I think it's faster and a much lower fee.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
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When did you start? I started in late feb/early march and just got withdrawal access several days ago and have one pending in USDC both because I think it's faster and a much lower fee.
I started at the same time you did. But I suspect my account is going to get extra review/punished because I gifted a bunch of moments to another user after selling a pack on eBay.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
41,122
My pre-ordered pack came in. Delon Wright assist, a Kyrie fake pass/floater, and my personal favorite because he is my homophonous cousin, a Joe Ingles 3 pointer. Woot?
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,272
My pre-ordered pack came in. Delon Wright assist, a Kyrie fake pass/floater, and my personal favorite because he is my homophonous cousin, a Joe Ingles 3 pointer. Woot?
That Kyrie is solid. I got Derozan, Patty Mills, and Willie Cauley-Stein (which would be a disaster if it didn't have a badge and a serial under 2000). I sold the Derozan and Mills right away to cover the cost of the pack. Now I'm just hoping someone will overpay for Willie.

Interesting story unfolded on Top Shot tonight. A guy fat-fingered his sale of his Lebron Holo Icon card (worth ~$25,000), putting it up for sale for $2,800 instead of $28,000. It got scooped up immediately. Which would be a sad story but for the fact that the guy who sold it has what would appear to be incredible (to the point of being impossible) luck getting packs: https://livetoken.co/accounts/451022f06351c35c/sales And the guy who bought it appears to be a bot of some kind: https://livetoken.co/accounts/45ff5857a4d789a6/portfolio. This is the kind of stuff that Top Shot has got to clean up.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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So did anyone buy a $1k pack?

I only had 10 moments so didn't qualify. My girlfriend has 8. I was going to consolidate them all via gift function but never got around to it. Oh well.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,272
Cool Cats drop tomorrow at 11 Pacific. 92.5k packs, so maybe 50-50 odds if you figure a lot of people can't join a drop in the middle of a work day?
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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Cool Cats drop tomorrow at 11 Pacific. 92.5k packs, so maybe 50-50 odds if you figure a lot of people can't join a drop in the middle of a work day?
I think we're reachng the point where these packs are about even EV. The $999 pack probably would have been worth it. I'm looking at the Cool Cats which are available in these $14 packs and nothing looks very exciting. "Limited" to 20,000 - Bogdanovich, Hayward, Wood, Holliday, Chris Paul. Yawn.

I guess I'm still in bc why not?
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,272
I think we're reachng the point where these packs are about even EV. The $999 pack probably would have been worth it. I'm looking at the Cool Cats which are available in these $14 packs and nothing looks very exciting. "Limited" to 20,000 - Bogdanovich, Hayward, Wood, Holliday, Chris Paul. Yawn.

I guess I'm still in bc why not?
I don't know what TopShot's fascination with Bogdaovich is about.

I think the pack will be +ev because people want to get that Westbrook moment through the CC challenge and will pay to buy whatever Cool Cats they are missing. But I agree that the days of guaranteed +ev packs are numbered.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
7,607
I think we're reachng the point where these packs are about even EV. The $999 pack probably would have been worth it. I'm looking at the Cool Cats which are available in these $14 packs and nothing looks very exciting. "Limited" to 20,000 - Bogdanovich, Hayward, Wood, Holliday, Chris Paul. Yawn.

I guess I'm still in bc why not?
this pack is still easily 2-3x ev for sure, I mean the 4 worst commons alone are $20, and that's without the cool cat that people are still going to have some interest in because of the challenges
 

Batman Likes The Sox

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Dec 28, 2003
1,716
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I got the cool cats Jrue Holiday, which is pretty good and part of the challenge as well.

I've actually got about half of the challenge cards. I might go for it if prices don't go too high.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
41,122
I got the cool cats Jrue Holiday, which is pretty good and part of the challenge as well.

I've actually got about half of the challenge cards. I might go for it if prices don't go too high.
Maybe a dumb question that I'm sure is answered on the site but what are the particular benefits of fulfilling a challenge?
 

Batman Likes The Sox

Not postscient
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Dec 28, 2003
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There are various challenges but they're mostly along the lines of "collect these 10 cards and have them all when the challenge ends in your collection -- reward is that you get an exclusive card"
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Maybe a dumb question that I'm sure is answered on the site but what are the particular benefits of fulfilling a challenge?
You get the more exclusive challenge completion moment, which in theory makes up for the fact that the challenge moments tank as soon as the challenge ends because they aren't in demand. Whether completing challenges is still +ev probably depends on what it is, how many people complete it, and how you feel about the market long term.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
41,122
There are various challenges but they're mostly along the lines of "collect these 10 cards and have them all when the challenge ends in your collection -- reward is that you get an exclusive card"
You get the more exclusive challenge completion moment, which in theory makes up for the fact that the challenge moments tank as soon as the challenge ends because they aren't in demand. Whether completing challenges is still +ev probably depends on what it is, how many people complete it, and how you feel about the market long term.
Thanks. I am mostly just Top Shot-curious at this point, but the whole thing is very reminiscent of the year or two I was really into the Madden Mobile game. Different challenges to complete, a marketplace, players to collect, etc, just without the potential real-world value component and with the gaming component. Actually I remember similar issues with bots as well on the marketplace, where certain cards at certain low values would drop in the marketplace at very specific times, and would be scooped up in nanoseconds to turn around and be resold for a (digital) profit.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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$99 Premium pack drop tomorrow. I don't think I qualify.
To join the queue for a chance to buy a pack, you must have fulfilled at least one of the following at the time of our snapshot on Tuesday, April 20 at 11 AM PDT:

-Own 1+ Metallic Gold LE Moments; or

-Own 2+ Rare Moments; or

-Own 15+ Moments

Additionally, you must also have spent at least $99 on the Marketplace, excluding pack purchases.
https://blog.nbatopshot.com/posts/premium-packs-s2-2
 

Moosey

Mooseyed Farvin
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Jul 20, 2005
3,815
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They are doing a bizarrely good job of continuing to alienate their userbase. Seems like a really shitty idea for long term adoption. At this rate you will end up with the same 1,000 people trading moments back and forth while the overall market craters.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
15,321
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They are doing a bizarrely good job of continuing to alienate their userbase. Seems like a really shitty idea for long term adoption. At this rate you will end up with the same 1,000 people trading moments back and forth while the overall market craters.
1.000 people with 100 accounts each ;)
 

nattysez

Member
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Sep 30, 2010
5,272
A few thoughts on the state of Top Shot:

(1) My ability to withdraw funds from Dapper was approved. I think that might've taken slightly under the 6 weeks they'd warned me about. I strongly suspect they are jamming through withdrawal approvals, because allowing withdrawals is critical to attracting people to the site.
(2) I think their pack drop requirements are designed to encourage collecting. I don't disagree that it's going to alienate some people, but they are trying to avoid having packs going to people who are just going to immediately sell all of their moments. And the marketplace spend requirement was a good way to goose the marketplace a little.
(3) They have created an "early adopters" accomplishment in their "baller status," which you get if your account was created before May 22, 2021. This implies they are pushing to exit "beta" status in time for the playoffs or are at least planning a big marketing push for the playoffs. They'd probably be better off waiting until the start of next season, but we'll see.
 

Oil Can Dan

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Jul 31, 2003
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I am admittedly no expert on NBA Top shot, but on your second point it seems to me these requirements are designed to artificially inflate the market more so than to encourage collecting. Isn't it true that the prices on the secondary market for the required 'cards' tank as soon as the challenge is over? if I'm right how long can they continue to manipulate the market like this before people stop caring or grow tired of it? It's going to be interesting to see how it unfolds...
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
7,607
You can buy 15 moments for less than $100 now if you're starting from 0, that doesn't seem unreasonable as a barrier to entry for spending $100 or more on a pack.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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You can buy 15 moments for less than $100 now if you're starting from 0, that doesn't seem unreasonable as a barrier to entry for spending $100 or more on a pack.
Yeah, but the requirements are unknown ahead of time and are escalating. I thought I had done more than enough for the pack drop before this one, and I was wrong. Therefore, I've lost interest (well, it's not just the pack requirements but also that the market keeps tanking). It's my choice, for sure. I could work harder. But Moosey's point is that this is going to happen.

Put in measures to combat multi-accounting (something I haven't seen much evidence of) and just let the virtual queue democratize the pack acquisition process. I don't care to be judged on whether I deserve the opportunity.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Yeah, but the requirements are unknown ahead of time and are escalating. I thought I had done more than enough for the pack drop before this one, and I was wrong. Therefore, I've lost interest (well, it's not just the pack requirements but also that the market keeps tanking). It's my choice, for sure. I could work harder. But Moosey's point is that this is going to happen.

Put in measures to combat multi-accounting (something I haven't seen much evidence of) and just let the virtual queue democratize the pack acquisition process. I don't care to be judged on whether I deserve the opportunity.
It's the same requirement as the last major drop, other than the needing to have spent $99 in the marketplace which really isn't much at all.