NBA Top Shot

djbayko

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highly unlikely, last rare drop only went about 500 past the line
Yes, he’s resigned to missing out based on where he is in line.

I got a mediocre pack. Another Bam (15k print) is my best common, and I got Jokic for the All Star. I guess I might as well hang on to him for a bit to see if he shows up in a challenge.
 

scottyno

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Market is open, though it's really laggy and hard to actually post stuff and get it through
 

nattysez

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Yeah just posted mine at 2949, though may adjust that down a bit. I didn't expect the market to open that high
In case you don't already know, you can use evaluate.market to see how a moment is selling -- the data is more complete than on the TopShot site itself: https://evaluate.market/editions?editionGuid=046c1d08-46bc-429b-9d7c-72d13d6b1e5d

It also helps you spot trends quickly. As usual, people who want to get liquid quickly are posting below the average price and selling almost immediately. Last two sales were for $2599 and $2700.
 

scottyno

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In case you don't already know, you can use evaluate.market to see how a moment is selling -- the data is more complete than on the TopShot site itself: https://evaluate.market/editions?editionGuid=046c1d08-46bc-429b-9d7c-72d13d6b1e5d

It also helps you spot trends quickly. As usual, people who want to get liquid quickly are posting below the average price and selling almost immediately. Last two sales were for $2599 and $2700.
Yeah, eventually the dumps will end and it'll start going back up. Not being able to post it sooner because of the site having issues may have cost me a quick sale, dang.

And thanks yeah that site is better than reading the table of recent sales.
 

djbayko

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djbayko

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Also, has anyone noticed the trend of what happens with moments which are part of a challenge? Am I better off selling it now? Or should I wait until closer to the challenge end date in 12 days? I could see the price going up as time starts to run out. But I could also see the opposite effect - the price crashing as sellers get desperate to unload before the moment becomes just another moment.
 

scottyno

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Also, has anyone noticed the trend of what happens with moments which are part of a challenge? Am I better off selling it now? Or should I wait until closer to the challenge end date in 12 days? I could see the price going up as time starts to run out. But I could also see the opposite effect - the price crashing as sellers get desperate to unload before the moment becomes just another moment.
I probably wouldn't sell it right now, but 1000% sell it before the challenge unless you're planning on doing the challenge, it'll probably drop to the 20s once the challenge is over.

Those 5 were in the high 60s or mid 70s as recently as yesterday, now a bunch more just got dropped into circulation for a challenge that probably isn't even worth doing anyway
 

djbayko

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I probably wouldn't sell it right now, but 1000% sell it before the challenge unless you're planning on doing the challenge, it'll probably drop to the 20s once the challenge is over.

Those 5 were in the high 60s or mid 70s as recently as yesterday, now a bunch more just got dropped into circulation for a challenge that probably isn't even worth doing anyway
Yeah, i'm familiar with the watering down of the market right after a drop. And obvioulsy the price will go down after the challenge is over. What I meant was, do we typically see a spike or a crash in the market as the challenge time nears expiration (as either buyers or sellers get desperate)?

You're right though. This challenge reward is kind of shitty, so I wouldn't count on seeing a spike at the end even if that's what history demonstrates.
 

nattysez

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Yeah, i'm familiar with the watering down of the market right after a drop. And obvioulsy the price will go down after the challenge is over. What I meant was, do we typically see a spike or a crash in the market as the challenge time nears expiration (as either buyers or sellers get desperate)?

You're right though. This challenge reward is kind of shitty, so I wouldn't count on seeing a spike at the end even if that's what history demonstrates.
Best way to check is to find a completed challenge and look at the price action on some of the cards. All I know is that my 500-serial Vucevic (which is required for the Seeing Stars challenge) is not selling, so I'm going to have to drop the price significantly pretty soon to make sure I'm not left holding the bag.
 

djbayko

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Best way to check is to find a completed challenge and look at the price action on some of the cards. All I know is that my 500-serial Vucevic (which is required for the Seeing Stars challenge) is not selling, so I'm going to have to drop the price significantly pretty soon to make sure I'm not left holding the bag.
Yeah, I'm kind of skeptical of the impact in these limited editions. I was just looking at the prices of the All-star moments which are in All-star Challenge #1, and they don't seem to be out of whack with the prices of the moments which are not. And the challenge reward in this case is a Giannis banked 3-pointer, so it's nothing to scoff at I'm just going to list my Jokic moment for $749 (a bit more than current price) and see what happens.
 

Oil Can Dan

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So I registered this morn and I see there's some Cool Cat drop today at 3pm. Do I just go into the waiting room an hour before that? And is it generally true that I should try to get in on any pack that's available or are there ones to avoid?
 

nattysez

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So I registered this morn and I see there's some Cool Cat drop today at 3pm. Do I just go into the waiting room an hour before that? And is it generally true that I should try to get in on any pack that's available or are there ones to avoid?
You can go in any time before the drop (which is at 12 Pacific) -- getting in sooner doesn't improve your chances (or so they claim). To date, the packs have always paid for themselves. This pack costs $14 and includes 5 moments. The cheapest moment on the site right now is $10.
 
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Oil Can Dan

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You can go in any time before the drop (which is at 12 Pacific) -- getting in sooner doesn't improve your chances (or so they claim). To date, the packs have always paid for themselves. This pack costs $14 and includes 5 moments. The cheapest moment on the site right now is $10.
Gotcha, thanks. Does anyone here collect these things are is all about flipping for profits?
 

nattysez

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Gotcha, thanks. Does anyone here collect these things are is all about flipping for profits?
The market has been tanking, so I'm currently "collecting." :)

To expand on this a bit, a lot of moments -- especially moments that had high values even a few weeks ago -- have been dropping precipitously. The flipping game is killing the market a bit, as flippers just want to get liquid quickly, so they're always undercutting the lowest bid. We'll see if that improves down the road. As it stands now, I'm only buying packs and very low-value moments that I think might get a little bump in value (i.e., guys who might get traded and be of more interest because they're in the news).
 
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scottyno

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Gotcha, thanks. Does anyone here collect these things are is all about flipping for profits?
There definitely are collectors, though most of them are probably collecting because they expect that long term early moments will go way way way up in value and not because the moments are cool, though some are. Most people "collecting" are likely either buying up to either do a challenge/buying up challenge moments to sell to people who are trying to do the challenges, or are buying certain moments for speculative value (rookies, potential trade guys, breakout players).
 

bbc23

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Are there any sites that track how many people get the chance to purchase a pack per the amount available? It feels like ~20-30% of people that have the chance don't but I'd be interested to see the actual data.
 

scottyno

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Are there any sites that track how many people get the chance to purchase a pack per the amount available? It feels like ~20-30% of people that have the chance don't but I'd be interested to see the actual data.
No way it's 20-30% that get an eligible spot don't, at least not on the larger drops. The rising stars one was about 500 out of 40kish didn't purchase, and I think all stars was similar.
 

scottyno

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I got 274k, so I know there were at least that many people in this drop, but I had 2 swaps get packs so I'll get something
 

bbc23

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No way it's 20-30% that get an eligible spot don't, at least not on the larger drops. The rising stars one was about 500 out of 40kish didn't purchase, and I think all stars was similar.
Should have clarified that it was the common type packs that I noticed that on. The expensive ~$200-230 packs barely had non purchases, likely because you had to already own moments just to join the drop.
 

scottyno

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Should have clarified that it was the common type packs that I noticed that on. The expensive ~$200-230 packs barely had non purchases, likely because you had to already own moments just to join the drop.
Ok then maybe, that still seems really high to me, but I have no data to go on for those
 

nattysez

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I saw someone earlier say that the SGA was probably the best or second-best Cool Cat from this pack in terms of likely value, so that's a good pull!
 

scottyno

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Capela is in the challenge so that's a fairly valuable common right now, a #3000s Harden is pretty good too. I'm assuming Porzyngis will be the most expensive with SGA 2nd (or maybe just hoping because 1 of my swap friends got a porzingis). Definitely a well above-average pack though!
 

nattysez

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Well, the snipers are at it already -- SGA lowest ask all the way down to $49 41 - woof.
 
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tbb345

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Capela is in the challenge so that's a fairly valuable common right now, a #3000s Harden is pretty good too. I'm assuming Porzyngis will be the most expensive with SGA 2nd (or maybe just hoping because 1 of my swap friends got a porzingis). Definitely a well above-average pack though!
I got a Porzingis, Harden, Capela, RJ Barrett and Austin Rivers. First pack I’ve ever got so hoping it’s pretty good
 

scottyno

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I got a Porzingis, Harden, Capela, RJ Barrett and Austin Rivers. First pack I’ve ever got so hoping it’s pretty good
all the cool cats are pretty similar in value right now, then 2 good commons, 1 mediocre one, and 1 terrible one, so yeah that's a solid pack
 

SuperManny

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Is there any actual benefit to low serial numbers other than personal preference? I sold the Shai for $98 which is around current market price but the high serial numbers go for $5k which seems ridiculous, and yes I know the pricing in general is ridiculous.
 

nattysez

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Is there any actual benefit to low serial numbers other than personal preference? I sold the Shai for $98 which is around current market price but the high serial numbers go for $5k which seems ridiculous, and yes I know the pricing in general is ridiculous.
It seems like there is some demand for low serials and serials that are the same as the player's number. If you look at most moments in serial-number order, the price decreases steadily as the serial gets higher. And if you look at almost any moment's sales on evaluate.market, you'll see that sales prices do drop as serial number increases to some extent.

Anyone know why my Oladipo base set common with circulation of 35,000 is selling in the $50's? Doesn't make much sense to me. What's so good about this card that I don't know about.

https://evaluate.market/editions?editionGuid=b4890cde-0e0a-44af-875a-9fa1afca69f6

Edit: I see it's part of a challenge, but it's been fairly high priced since the card's inception.

https://www.nbatopshot.com/challenges/509d4098-6bde-4084-a7aa-d8ec62a06769
I just went to go check on Oladipo moments since Woj is saying it's certain he'll be traded. That moment you mentioned has one for sale at $59 and then the rest are at $60 or above. That's pretty crazy.

BTW, if he gets traded to the Knicks, I'll bet that moment goes up $10.
 
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scottyno

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If you've got any of the rookie common moments (edwards wiseman haliburton etc) they're going way up right now on the announcement of rookie and first moment badges among others coming by the end of the month
 

djbayko

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Discord browser pushes have been disabled. Let's drop a note here whenever we see a drop scheduled. I'll be watching this thread.
 

nattysez

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At office hours today, they said that the next regular pack drop would happen within the next week. I assume that presages a stress test at some point, but I dunno.

In other news, I'm going to do the Cool Cats 3 challenge. There are rumors that completing a challenge might be a requirement for some drops in the future, and I'm rolling the dice that Jokic wins MVP, making a rare card of his more valuable.

Edit - badges are live.
 
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djbayko

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At office hours today, they said that the next regular pack drop would happen within the next week. I assume that presages a stress test at some point, but I dunno.

In other news, I'm going to do the Cool Cats 3 challenge. There are rumors that completing a challenge might be a requirement for some drops in the future, and I'm rolling the dice that Jokic wins MVP, making a rare card of his more valuable.

Edit - badges are live.
Interesting theory. I just bought all of the commons and will be monitoring prices of the required Cool Cats over the coming days. Thanks.

I also wonder if it's worth owning a "cheap" rare series moment. Seems like that would be another logical next step in trying to incentivize ownership/collection over pure scalping. I just hate the idea of buying something for a couple hundred dollars without knowing. I don't love the long term value of this stuff; nevermind anything which doesn't have star appeal + rarity. But if you wait for an annoucement, the floor price of the rare cards will skyrocket.

My girlfriend still has the All-Star Jokic she pulled from a pack. I suppose she could just hang onto that for a bit, just in case.
 
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Red Averages

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Yup. With Top Shots and WAXP, WAXP gets 5% transaction fee on purchases. It's not clear on how ECOMI will do it, it's a pretty risky lottery ticket at the moment. WAXP has a much better track record beyond just Top Shots.
I'm in for about 1.5mm OMI now. Room to add on my end over the next week or two. The more I read on the potential, whether it's the FOMO behind an NFL type TopShots, potential to get listed on more accessible exchanges, or the longer term fundamentals, the more I think this is a decent lotto ticket play. Sized similar to about 1/10th of my usual option size as of now. Depending on how it trades i may triple the position.
 

djbayko

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If someone wants a lottery ticket and doesn’t mind joining a somewhat rando crypto exchange these guys will be doing the NFL version of Top Shots

Check out ECOMI https://www.coingecko.com/coins/ecomi
I'm in for about 1.5mm OMI now. Room to add on my end over the next week or two. The more I read on the potential, whether it's the FOMO behind an NFL type TopShots, potential to get listed on more accessible exchanges, or the longer term fundamentals, the more I think this is a decent lotto ticket play. Sized similar to about 1/10th of my usual option size as of now. Depending on how it trades i may triple the position.
I'm along for the ride as of today. I actually meant to buy when Nip first posted a couple weeks ago and wish I had. Used profits from the last few weeks of my KuCoin lending, so I'm playing with house money in a way.

It was also a learning experience. I chose to tranfer the OMI coin off of BitForex and into a local Trust wallet, adding OMI as a custom coin in the app. Of course, I missed an important step (forgot to set the OMI network from ETH to GoChain) and stupidly transferred the entire lot of coins at once rather than sending a test transaction. So I ended up spending a couple hours today troubleshooting, figuring out why my coin wasn't appearing in the wallet, and (luckily) learning that there was a somewhat convoluted way to recover the funds. Almost a costly mistake!
 
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nattysez

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Interesting theory. I just bought all of the commons and will be monitoring prices of the required Cool Cats over the coming days. Thanks.
Sorry to say I wound up changing my mind on this when Shai G-A got hurt. His injury means that the Cool Cats required for this challenge are all pretty meh and the commons are dropping in value. I'm selling my commons at a loss rather than investing further.

I'm curious to see what the market dynamics are like today as Seeing Stars 1 ends and Seeing Stars 2 gets announced.