Might as well start talking about 2021

Green Monster

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Pirates claimed him.
I saw that. Has the waiver process been revised? As I recall players went thru their respect leagues (worst to first) before the other league has a chance. Did the Pirates have first dibs because they have the worst record or did he clear all AL teams??
 

bsj

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This is a weak year for FA, but for me, with the limited funds they have to spend, its gotta be all pitching all the time. More than happy piecing together a little here and there to upgrade the offense but we need to gut and overhaul the pitching staff to the extent we can.

Assuming Sale, Eo, and ERod are back....none sure things...and we can give one of the kids a shot. I still would want one good 2/3 caliber starter, and def at least 2 if not 3 bullpen arms.

I'd look at Trevor Bauer.
 

richgedman'sghost

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I saw that. Has the waiver process been revised? As I recall players went thru their respect leagues (worst to first) before the other league has a chance. Did the Pirates have first dibs because they have the worst record or did he clear all AL teams??
I am pretty sure they changed the waiver process this year and eliminated the rule that the wavied player must pass through his "league" waivers before being exposed to the other league. In other words, there no longer are "league waivers". Teams are just ranked 30 to 1. So the Red Sox never had a shot at him since Pirates obviously were worse.
 

opes

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Springer will get overpaid, and I hope its not us. I would rather re-sign JBJ as a eventual platoon with Duran. Ozuna is on the board, but I would expect the Braves re-sign him. Heck, we might not even make the playoffs unless we pick up some recent arms. Everyone will be going after Trevor Bauer, but hopefully Sale, and Erod can bounce back.
 

nvalvo

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JBJ wouldn't be a platoon with Duran. They're both left-handed hitters.
Yeah. If you bring back JBJ, it should be on a 1 year deal, or ideally a 1 year deal with some sort of option for a second.

The idea would be to give Duran some runway and much-needed AAA PAs. Then you bring up Duran to be the 4th OF late in the season or if anyone gets hurt, and Bradley (if back next year) becomes a fourth outfielder in 2022.

If Bradley gets a better offer than that from another team, he should take it.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah. If you bring back JBJ, it should be on a 1 year deal, or ideally a 1 year deal with some sort of option for a second.

The idea would be to give Duran some runway and much-needed AAA PAs. Then you bring up Duran to be the 4th OF late in the season or if anyone gets hurt, and Bradley (if back next year) becomes a fourth outfielder in 2022.

If Bradley gets a better offer than that from another team, he should take it.
Yep, I agree. I am really hoping Duran is the next great Sox' CF. His bat might not be sufficient enough for that, but he's improving and if he can be a slashing, solid OBP guy with lights-out defense, that's not too bad. Especially for the first chunk of his time in Boston, when he'll be dirt cheap.
 

scottyno

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What’s the status of McHugh? I assume the contract he signed with us before he opted out tolled and is still in place for 2021. That may be your back end depth right there.
Pretty sure contracts never tolled in baseball, just you'd lose a year of service time, which doesn't matter to someone like him anyway. So he'll be a free agent, though I guess there's a chance he feels like he owes something to the sox to sign with them since they paid him an advance and then he didn't pitch all year and opted out.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Who is on the short list of FA's we would want to give up our 2nd round pick for (keep in mind it's fourth overall in the 2nd round)?

Bauer (is he only interested in 1 year deals? If so, pass for this organization at this moment)
Springer?
Realmuto?

Anyone want to dip their toes in the LeMahieu if he hits free agency? Or do we just assume Arroyo for now and eventually Downs is the future at that spot. i assume he is re-signing in NY anyway.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What kind of number would it take for JBJ to accept a 1 year offer?
$13M? Maybe $14M?

He got $11M this year (pro-rated). Can't imagine he's going to get much more than that in AAV on a multi-year deal unless someone really bought into his offensive burst in September. I also don't expect he'll get more than 2 or 3 year offer at best. I'd offer 2 years at $25M, maybe with an option, and go from there. What I wouldn't do is hold to just one year out of some concern that he'd block Duran. I'd rather have JBJ around and Duran force himself into the bigs than not have JBJ and annoint Duran before he's ready (if he ever is).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Who is on the short list of FA's we would want to give up our 2nd round pick for (keep in mind it's fourth overall in the 2nd round)?

Bauer (is he only interested in 1 year deals? If so, pass for this organization at this moment)
Springer?
Realmuto?

Anyone want to dip their toes in the LeMahieu if he hits free agency? Or do we just assume Arroyo for now and eventually Downs is the future at that spot. i assume he is re-signing in NY anyway.
Out of curiosity, why pass on Bauer on a one-year deal? Because the team may not contend even with him, or is there a financial concern for next year?

I can only see balking at paying him if there's a better long-term allocation for that money, like signing a Springer or Realmuto type to a long-term deal. Personally, I'd rather roll the dice on one year of Bauer than a big money long term deal to anyone in the current free agent market. If the team's out of contention, 2-3 months of Bauer might have some trade value. Even if you don't trade him, the money's not tied up past the end of the season and can be re-allocated.

I think it's more likely that Bauer doesn't sign with the Red Sox by his own choice (more obvious contenders to join) than the Sox won't/shouldn't spend the money on him.
 

nvalvo

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After 2021, there is expected to be a really good FA class. Some highlights:

C: Sal Perez, Wilson Ramos.
IF: Nolan Arenado (if he opts out), Freddy Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Javy Baez, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa.
OF: Michael Conforto, Starling Marte.
SP: Noah Syndergaard, Chris Archer.

There's a fair amount more, too. But someone is going to get a good deal on one of those infielders. I wouldn't mind moving Devers to 1B/DH to make room for Arenado, or setting up a Bogaerts/Baez keystone.
 

Oppo

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Perez/Freeman/Rizzo will be 32
Marte/Archer will be 33
Ramos will be 34
Bryant/Arenado/Correa have major injury concerns (plus Arenado’s H/R splits)
 

StuckOnYouk

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Out of curiosity, why pass on Bauer on a one-year deal? Because the team may not contend even with him, or is there a financial concern for next year?

I can only see balking at paying him if there's a better long-term allocation for that money, like signing a Springer or Realmuto type to a long-term deal. Personally, I'd rather roll the dice on one year of Bauer than a big money long term deal to anyone in the current free agent market. If the team's out of contention, 2-3 months of Bauer might have some trade value. Even if you don't trade him, the money's not tied up past the end of the season and can be re-allocated.

I think it's more likely that Bauer doesn't sign with the Red Sox by his own choice (more obvious contenders to join) than the Sox won't/shouldn't spend the money on him.
I believe that once he gets a qualified offer we lose our 2nd round pick to sign him. Which of course is a very high pick. I wouldn't do that if the player only wants one year. To have several years of value of a FA for that pick is more palatable to me. Keeping in mind I don't think we're good enough next year to win a WS even with Bauer.
 

thestardawg

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Yep, I agree. I am really hoping Duran is the next great Sox' CF. His bat might not be sufficient enough for that, but he's improving and if he can be a slashing, solid OBP guy with lights-out defense, that's not too bad. Especially for the first chunk of his time in Boston, when he'll be dirt cheap.
Fangraphs not exactly enthused by Duran

Mark: Jarren Duransupposedly made a swing change to allow him to reach high fastballs and tap into his raw power. Does this change his ranking/FV?


12:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d like to see what the results of the swing change are. I’m not inclined to move him at all. Doesn’t have impact raw power, don’t think his defensive instincts allow him to play CF even though he’s really fast.
 

Max Power

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I believe that once he gets a qualified offer we lose our 2nd round pick to sign him. Which of course is a very high pick. I wouldn't do that if the player only wants one year. To have several years of value of a FA for that pick is more palatable to me. Keeping in mind I don't think we're good enough next year to win a WS even with Bauer.
And once he's been offered a QO once, it can't happen again. There will be no compensation if he stays for one year and signs somewhere else.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yep, I agree. I am really hoping Duran is the next great Sox' CF. His bat might not be sufficient enough for that, but he's improving and if he can be a slashing, solid OBP guy with lights-out defense, that's not too bad. Especially for the first chunk of his time in Boston, when he'll be dirt cheap.
With work, he might have league average defense at CF. JBJ he is not.
 

shaggydog2000

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Fangraphs not exactly enthused by Duran

Mark: Jarren Duransupposedly made a swing change to allow him to reach high fastballs and tap into his raw power. Does this change his ranking/FV?


12:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d like to see what the results of the swing change are. I’m not inclined to move him at all. Doesn’t have impact raw power, don’t think his defensive instincts allow him to play CF even though he’s really fast.
I think it's really hard to judge the changes a player has made when he's not playing competitive baseball.
 

Yo La Tengo

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This may have been shared already, but, estimates are that the Sox will be roughly $36 million under the first $210 million threshold next year.

How long should/will the team try to stay under that number? I don't think $36 million is enough to resign JBJ, sign a starter (someone like Stroman) and add significant parts to the bullpen.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This may have been shared already, but, estimates are that the Sox will be roughly $36 million under the first $210 million threshold next year.

How long should/will the team try to stay under that number? I don't think $36 million is enough to resign JBJ, sign a starter (someone like Stroman) and add significant parts to the bullpen.
I think it depends entirely on who's on the market and where Bloom and company see the team going whether they surpass the luxury tax threshold next year. I don't see them going after Stroman or any other starter that will cost significant money and years. At some point they have to stop throwing money down that well...at least until some/all of the guys they've already signed (Eovaldi, Sale, Price) are off the payroll.

If they see themselves as contenders for 2021 with a few tweaks and additions, I don't think they hesitate to exceed $210M. If they think they're still a year away, I can see them keeping their powder somewhat dry and skipping on a big expenditure. Either way, I definitely don't expect there's going to be much money spent on the bullpen. That's a "toss stuff against the wall and see what sticks" situation, not a "buy the best free agent available" one.
 

E5 Yaz

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Is it tweaks and additions, though.

They need to know who'll play 2B. They need to know who'll be the two non-Verdugo starting outfielders (Hint: It won't be Chavis.) They have absolutely no idea how effective Sale and Rodriguez will be coming back. They need to decide if Devers is fixable defensively at third and, if not, what do you do with him and/or Dalbec?. They need to wade through the morass of arms they trotted out this year to construct a bullpen -- including on whether to go after a legit closer. And, if JDM does opt out, they need another RH bat.

Can all those be answered in one offseason? Probably not, and that doesn't include things currently not on the radar.

It's a two-year fix, at best.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Strongly suspect we'll see 2021 season without any major deals being signed (biggest likely to be JBJ for a 2 year $25M) with an eye towards the midseason to decide if they will be buyers or sellers again (parts like Chavis, Arroyo, Benintendi, Martinez)...... but I suspect 2022 will be the arrival of the next 5 year wave.
Sox have to (need to....) sign Devers to a long term deal ASAP. I think make that the biggest offseason priority- market is low... he's young. He should be offered a 10-12 year deal at $25M right now.
 

E5 Yaz

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No. 2 years, $25M total. Come on. Is anyone really insane enough to think JBJ is worth $25M per year?
Fair enough ... but I was going off his later use of Devers getting 10-12 years at $25M as supporting evidence.

On the other hand, he is likely to get a better offer than 2/$25M
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Pretty good info, considering we don't know flight number, airline or type of aircraft! How did you do that?
I recognize AA boarding passes but even if I didn't nonstop from PHX to BOS has to be AA or B6. I'm pretty sure that JetBlue doesn't have a V class and even if they do I don't think they put fare basis codes on the boarding pass. Also, the B6 flight is a redeye which seems unlikely.

AA's flights are on the A321 and so 12D would be main cabin extra. I've done that flight a lot. I think I've had that seat.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Fair enough ... but I was going off his later use of Devers getting 10-12 years at $25M as supporting evidence.

On the other hand, he is likely to get a better offer than 2/$25M
Seems all pretty obvious but I'll try to be more clear next time. I don't think JBJ will be getting more than a 2 year $25 (12.5 per) offer. Future is still uncertain... he's getting a little older and has proven to be inconsistent. I can imagine a team offering a one year deal at more than 12.5 though.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I recognize AA boarding passes but even if I didn't nonstop from PHX to BOS has to be AA or B6. I'm pretty sure that JetBlue doesn't have a V class and even if they do I don't think they put fare basis codes on the boarding pass. Also, the B6 flight is a redeye which seems unlikely.

AA's flights are on the A321 and so 12D would be main cabin extra. I've done that flight a lot. I think I've had that seat.
Most impressive!
 

nvalvo

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Seems all pretty obvious but I'll try to be more clear next time. I don't think JBJ will be getting more than a 2 year $25 (12.5 per) offer. Future is still uncertain... he's getting a little older and has proven to be inconsistent. I can imagine a team offering a one year deal at more than 12.5 though.
I can imagine the Boston Red Sox offering him a qualifying offer. If he's back on an overpriced one-year deal (1/$18m instead of 1/$16m or whatever), so be it. That suits us fine.

If he turns it down and does actually get a three-year offer elsewhere, we get a much-needed compensatory draft pick.
 

SoxVindaloo

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I think if JBJ leaves it will not be because his market got beyond us financially. If he leaves it will be bc he has decided to leave. I'd agree with the 2/25, or maybe 3/33 range.
 

grimshaw

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JBJ doesn't have much of a market unless he goes short and cheap IMO.

The teams that had terrible CF situations this season:
-Phillies (Roman Quinn and Adam Haseley). Haseley was a first round 8th overall pick and is just 24.
-Nationals (Robles and Michael Taylor). Hard to see them giving up on Robles.
-Rockies (Dahl and some patchwork while he was injured). Dahl isn't going anywhere while he's cheap.
-Indians (Deshields) Good fit here, though it would ruin the Indians plans to have the worst outfield in baseball.
-Astros (If Springer leaves) They have an all field, no hit speedster in Myles Straw

I may have missed some but the Indians and Astros (and Sox) seem like the top destinations. One of those will likely be filled by Springer. Wouldn't shock me if JBJ had to settle for a QO or 1 year deal elsewhere with the labor negotiations looming. I predict he gets less than 10mill AAV.
 
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