Might as well start talking about 2021

jon abbey

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which Red Sox prospects are Rule 5 eligible, and required to be placed on 40 man roster, or exposed to MLB draft?
Talking about it in the roster thread:

“Groome, Mata, Potts, Rosario, Seabold and Wong are expected to be added to the 40-man roster before the winter meetings.”
 

LesterFan

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That's pretty surprising. Normally 1/10 for a pretty solid reliever is a good deal yet no team was willing to trade for him for practically nothing? This means he goes unclaimed and becomes a FA and signs a cheaper deal, right? Not going to be great market for FAs if that's the case.

Red Sox are 4th in line behind the Pirates, Tigers, and Rangers if they were to claim him.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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That's pretty surprising. Normally 1/10 for a pretty solid reliever is a good deal yet no team was willing to trade for him for practically nothing? This means he goes unclaimed and becomes a FA and signs a cheaper deal, right? Not going to be great market for FAs if that's the case.

Red Sox are 4th in line behind the Pirates, Tigers, and Rangers if they were to claim him.
I can't imagine he clears waivers, but I also don't really expect to see the Sox put in a claim. 1/$10M for a reliever, even one with Hand's track record, doesn't seem like a Bloom move to me. At least not unless it's a "one piece to put the team over the top" type addition. This team is not one Brad Hand away from being a World Series contender.
 

Oppo

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Pick him up and trade him before the 2021 deadline, essentially paying for prospects. Not like they’ll be big spenders this offseason (or rather, shouldn’t be).
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Pick him up and trade him before the 2021 deadline, essentially paying for prospects. Not like they’ll be big spenders this offseason (or rather, shouldn’t be).
That’s what I’m thinking. It’s a Billy Beane kind of move, and Chaim’s not GM’ing a small market Rays team. And heck, if we’re playing well, we don’t trade him. $10M for a top late innings guy seems like a good deal even in the COVID era. (Unless every team is planning to slash payroll....)
 

RIrooter09

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Yeah claiming Hand is a no brainer for me. He was elite this year and has been great in previous seasons.
 

chawson

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Hand slipped a bit in 2019 but was elite again this year, I was surprised to learn. I’m sure it’s not the first roster move of the offseason Bloom anticipated but there wouldn’t seem to be much downside now that we’ve reset.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm down with it, as long as Bloom runs around like Costanza yelling "I HAVE HAND!!!" after they sign him.
That said.... the future of 2021 is completely uncertain. Nobody knows WTF is going to happen- we could be at 500,000 dead by that time with no vaccine on the horizon still by the time opening day rolls around. Teams will NOT be looking to spend this offseason.
Maybe some enterprising GM will be able to convince ownership that there in fact WILL be a vaccine by summer (and people will take it) and they'll sign tons of good cheap talent for several years because of the depressed market and have a great run...
 

vadertime

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Is there something I'm missing on Hand situation? Why wouldn't/hasn't any team with an option on a player place the player on waivers before declining it? I've never seen this done before, only the team just straight declining the option. If $1 million is really that big an issue, all of MLB is in for some tough times.
 

RedOctober3829

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David Robertson and Charlie Morton are 2 more arms that had their options declined. Robertson had a solid 2018 campaign(2.97 FIP, 130 ERA+, and 1.033 WHIP with 91 K's in 69.2 IP) and may be looking for a prove-it deal for 2021 at 36 years old. If he does well, he can be flipped at the deadline for prospects and if he does poorly it's not a big investment. Charlie Morton wanted to be on the East Coast the last time he was a FA so maybe that is still the case.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Hmmm. Morton’s option declined. Sox could take advantage of COVID concerns, bring in Hand, Morton, and Lester on one year deals, and try to replay 2013.
Hand is potentially missing out on a $10M deal. Morton's declined option was $15M. Lester's declined option is $25M (though he's getting $10M of it anyway). How steep a discount are we expecting them to get from those salary levels to sign here? Is it possible to get the three of them for $25M combined (a 50% drop in expected salary)?

I can understand and even get behind a 2013 style veteran stockpile. However, does ownership have the appetite for that sort of thing if it takes them over the luxury tax? In 2013, they came in just under the cap at the end of the year, which included their mid-season pickups like Peavy after it was clear they were contenders. I think signing just these guys would put them perilously close and they'd still have to address CF and maybe 2B too.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Hand is potentially missing out on a $10M deal. Morton's declined option was $15M. Lester's declined option is $25M (though he's getting $10M of it anyway). How steep a discount are we expecting them to get from those salary levels to sign here? Is it possible to get the three of them for $25M combined (a 50% drop in expected salary)?

I can understand and even get behind a 2013 style veteran stockpile. However, does ownership have the appetite for that sort of thing if it takes them over the luxury tax? In 2013, they came in just under the cap at the end of the year, which included their mid-season pickups like Peavy after it was clear they were contenders. I think signing just these guys would put them perilously close and they'd still have to address CF and maybe 2B too.
All good questions. Don’t know, do we? I was thinking we’d get all three for under $30M. And yeah, we’d need to resign/replace JBJ at least...
 

sean1562

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Most of Morton's previous comments about retirement seem to point pretty heavily towards calling it quits. His family is in Tampa, he has already made $70 million in his career. I doubt he is looking to sign a cheap deal with a team that may potentially trade him halfway through the season if they suck. Why not just go back to the Rays?
 

Apisith

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Happ's option wasn't picked up by the Yankees. Is he a good buy-low candidate to fill out the rotation? Worst case is he's a #5 that'll give you 160 innings. Best case is we trade him for prospects at the deadline.
 

scottyno

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E5 Yaz

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Maybe if he comes dirt cheap. He's a great defender with a middling bat, but the Sox do have Arroyo with a similar profile (and 4 years younger) plus Downs waiting in the wings. Not sure 2B is where they need to be spending much money this winter.
It's going to be a tough offseason for free agents. Teams are going to cite the short season and 2021 uncertainty for not overpaying. Wong could be a cheap pickup that might be able to be flipped at the trade deadline if Arroyo or Downs is ready
 

DeadlySplitter

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I’m told that both the Red Sox and Dustin Pedroia are prepared to talk soon about a mutual understanding that would end his playing career.

Pedroia, 37, has played only nine games over the last three seasons because of numerous issues with his left knee. He is signed through 2021 for $12 million.

The ultimate result will be for the Sox to release Pedroia and pay off his remaining salary all at once or over time. The value in the move will be to reclaim his spot on the 40-man roster.
-Pete Abe
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Doubtful this was the difference maker, but Perez's option was $6.85M rather than $6.25M. He hit some escalators due to his pro-rated innings total this season.

Maybe they think they can get him back for less? Either that, or it's like Speier says, they think they can get better value for their money with someone else.
 

JBJ_HOF

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The only reason people care that the Sox declined his option is because he was a good guy on the Section 10 podcast.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I think this is a signal that the market may drop a ton from previous years. The Red Sox clearly think they can get a year's worth of a decent innings eater like Martin Perez for less than $6 million.
 

mauidano

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NO JBJ huh? Red Sox don't make a qualifying offer. I think I will miss him as much as Mookie. Please don't sign Springer, please no.
 

scottyno

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NO JBJ huh? Red Sox don't make a qualifying offer. I think I will miss him as much as Mookie. Please don't sign Springer, please no.
He can still come back, there's just no chance they get a comp pick now if he doesn't. In this current market he'd have taken 1-18.9 within seconds of them giving him a qo
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I don’t think they’ll sacrifice the pick for Springer unless he comes really cheap. There was no way they were offering JBJ a a QO. They can get two years out of him for that money.
 

Manramsclan

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The people who are wringing their hands over declining the Martin Perez option are ridiculous. He is the definition of replacement level. The Red Sox should be aiming higher, as should all 29 MLB teams.
He'll still be there towards the end of free agency and possibly at a lower cost.
 

judyb

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I think Pedey would be great as the next Remy,if Remy doesn't want to retireany time soon Pedey could be the bench coach if Corais going to come back as manager
 

scottyno

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The people who are wringing their hands over declining the Martin Perez option are ridiculous. He is the definition of replacement level. The Red Sox should be aiming higher, as should all 29 MLB teams.
He'll still be there towards the end of free agency and possibly at a lower cost.
No he's not, we saw replacement level pretty much 3/5 times through the order this year. Which isn't to say he is or isn't worth 6.9m in a post-covid market, but he's definitely a legitimate starter on an MLB team in 2020.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I think Pedey would be great as the next Remy,if Remy doesn't want to retireany time soon Pedey could be the bench coach if Corais going to come back as manager
I'm not sure his "always on" attitude would translate to coaching. And he certainly doesn't need the money. NESN would also have to hire additional folks to man the Censor button if Pedroia was on the air
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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No he's not, we saw replacement level pretty much 3/5 times through the order this year. Which isn't to say he is or isn't worth 6.9m in a post-covid market, but he's definitely a legitimate starter on an MLB team in 2020.
I think you're confusing the below replacement level dreck that the Sox threw out there on the mound with a replacement level player like Perez.

To me, wasting $6 million on substandard players like Perez is as big a roster offense as overspending on a big name free agent. At least the big name free agent might actually help you win ball games.
 

BaseballJones

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Martin Perez' 2020 game log info.

- 9 of his 12 starts, he went 5+ innings
- 3 of his 12 starts, he went 6+ innings
- 7 of his 12 starts, he went 5+ innings, while giving up 2 or fewer ER

His best starts:
9/18 vs NYY: 6.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 7 k - Sox lost 6-5
8/22 at Bal: 7.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 6 k - Sox lost 5-4
8/5 at TB: 5.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 3 bb, 4 k - Sox won 5-0
9/3 vs Tor: 6.2 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 5 k - Sox lost 6-2
8/11 vs TB: 5.2 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 5 k - Sox lost 8-2

They finished 3-9 in his 12 starts, but in 4 of his best 5 starts, the Sox lost. His cumulative stat line for these starts:

30.1 ip, 18 h, 4 r, 4 er, 10 bb, 27 k, 1.19 era, 0.92 whip, 8.0 k/9

Yet the team went 1-4 in those starts.

Perez is very... meh. But he is probably a worthwhile #5. He only had a few games this year where he buried the Sox. For the most part, he kept them in games.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think they're likely looking to extend a 3 year offer to him somewhere around $12-$15m. As proven, they'll actually likely need guys like him around and THAT is a low cost for someone who can at least eat innings and be replacement level. I'm guessing the hope here is that if Sale and Rodriguez return he won't be needed in the lineup but would provide bullpen and skipped start depth. As a no. 5 or no. 6 starter.... he's fine. Hopefully his slightly high cost for his quality will be offset by Houk and Pivetta contributing even close to as well as they did towards the end of this past season.
Assuming that Sale doesn't start with the team, but Rodriguez does... a rotation of: Edro, Eovaldi, Houk, Pivetta and Perez is good. Obviously lots of question marks (does this need to be said.... seems like it should just be an assumption) but Sale showing up in mid June and bumping everyone down a notch on the rotation hierarchy seems like a decent plan, if far from ideal.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I think it's pretty simple. If Perez were a free agent, he's probably not getting an offer close to $6.85M per year. If the market is really as bad as everyone thinks it's going to be, Bloom probably thinks he can get a better pitcher for that kind of money. And if he can't, he can always try to bring Perez back.