Might as well start talking about 2021

BaseballJones

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What's the "real" Brandon Workman more like:

(a) The guy who from 2017-2019 pitched 152.2 innings at a 2.59 era, 180 era+, 1.13 whip, and 10.5 k/9
or
(b) The guy who in a totally bizarre Covid 2020 pitched 19.2 innings at a 5.95 era, 79 era+, 2.24 whip, and 10.5 k/9?

I think SSS definitely applies here. I'd absolutely be happy taking him back on an inexpensive contract.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Doesn't it feel like we're done though, absent a trade? After the AO trade, we're $10 million from the luxury tax, and it doesn't make sense to go over now when 2021 isn't a likely playoff year. That's also the squeeze on JBJ returning -- again absent a trade and subtraction of an existing salary.
Well, I never feel like they're done, no matter what the situation. Moves can always be made, especially ones we can't see coming until they happen.

This time last year they seemed to be "done" and then two weeks later, Mookie and Price were gone.
 

OurF'ingCity

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What's the "real" Brandon Workman more like:

(a) The guy who from 2017-2019 pitched 152.2 innings at a 2.59 era, 180 era+, 1.13 whip, and 10.5 k/9
or
(b) The guy who in a totally bizarre Covid 2020 pitched 19.2 innings at a 5.95 era, 79 era+, 2.24 whip, and 10.5 k/9?

I think SSS definitely applies here. I'd absolutely be happy taking him back on an inexpensive contract.
Agreed. He also strikes me as a good candidate to be an "opener" if that's something Bloom and Cora want to play around with during the season.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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No idea how much more Bloom will do, but there are still a TON of free agents - and a bunch of pretty good ones - still on the market.

Seriously. Over 1/3 of MLBTR’s top 50 players are still unsigned, and half their honorable mentions. Guys like Ozuna and Bauer will still get big deals, but how many of those players will get even $5M contracts for this year? Maybe half? What do pitchers like Shoemaker, Paxton, or even T.Walker get? Lots of guys will be left standing when the music stops this offseason.

I think Bloom will still add a LH bench bat, likely one who can play 1st. Moreland would cost nothing, maybe $1.5M. We’ll add another bullpen arm, and Workman would also cost next-to-nothing (almost certainly under $3M; what team’s saving its pennies for him?). Small moves like that could still help the 2021 team. Maybe he’ll also look for some cheap future assets (like signing Chris Archer to a low $ deal to finish rehabbing this year but with a team option for next).
 

DeadlySplitter

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With Ottavino around I doubt Workman would be closing again. I think we all knew he was overperforming and getting away with that high walk rate the past two years.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Fair enough, there are still many FA pitchers out there, though I see more RP or reclamation projects than any substantial SP

I would for sure take a flyer on Folty, Teheran or Rodon for sure.

Certainly there are many helpful bullpen arms out there
 

jon abbey

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With Ottavino around I doubt Workman would be closing again. I think we all knew he was overperforming and getting away with that high walk rate the past two years.
It’s hard to slot him as the closer unless his control gets decidedly better because if he walks someone, he can’t stop them or a pinch runner from stealing second (43 SBs allowed and only 4 CS from 2018-2020).
 

DeadlySplitter

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It’s hard to slot him as the closer unless his control gets decidedly better because if he walks someone, he can’t stop them or a pinch runner from stealing second (43 SBs allowed and only 4 CS from 2018-2020).
I expect it to be by committee and Ottavino to get a shot in certain situations. But that lack of holding runners on probably isn't so hot, huh?
 

chawson

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What's the "real" Brandon Workman more like:

(a) The guy who from 2017-2019 pitched 152.2 innings at a 2.59 era, 180 era+, 1.13 whip, and 10.5 k/9
or
(b) The guy who in a totally bizarre Covid 2020 pitched 19.2 innings at a 5.95 era, 79 era+, 2.24 whip, and 10.5 k/9?

I think SSS definitely applies here. I'd absolutely be happy taking him back on an inexpensive contract.
I agree he's likelier Guy A between the two options here, but I'd frame it a bit differently.

Workman's 2019 looks like the major outlier, anchored by a .209 BABIP and potentially unsustainable dependance on his curve. He needs the curve to be effective, and he may be losing it. He's gone from 6.2 inches of vertical drop in 2018 to 5.2 inches in 2019 to 3.9 inches in 2020. I think last year's debacle in Philadelphia leaves him with dubious trade value if we're selling. I'd rather grab Clippard.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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So what do folks think the signing of Joc Pederson for 1/$7m (Cubs) says about the market for JBJ? MLB TradeRumors projected Joc to get 2/18 and JBJ to get 2/16, but Joc ended up taking only one year at a lower AAV. As for JBJ, he obviously would like a longer term deal - I expect he'd like three years, if not four (and he's represented by Boras). But in terms of the other clubs rumored to be interested, or the best fits, the Astros are said to be taking a pause on the FA market after their recent signings, and the Mets are apparently only interested in a short-term deal, and like the Sox, have an in-house option for CF (Nimmo), so there's apparently no urgency on their part. SF has also been mentioned recently, so maybe that's Jackie's best chance of getting a 3 or 4 year deal, as they would seem to be looking past '21 in terms of competing, and they have little in the way of long-term salary commitments.

Bringing JBJ back would clearly improve the Sox for '21, but even doing so on a one-year deal might be difficult, even if his price drops (unless they decide to go over the 210 CBT). And it does seem that they are high on Duran - recent stories, including Speier in the Globe, cites Red Sox quality control coach Ramon Vasquez (Duran's coach in the PR winter league) , who compares him to Ellsbury and says he could hit 25-30 homers and 40 doubles and be a plus defender. That's pretty high praise, so if the Sox front office is anywhere near that high on him then I can see why they're reluctant to bring JBJ back on a multi-year deal. I wasn't willing to be nearly so optimistic about him being even a solid/average regular (having seen earlier projections on him being more of a 4th OF), but this, and the fact that Keith Law included him in his Top 100, has me feeling a little better that he could at least meet, if not surpass, that level.
 

chawson

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Sox have hired Julio Rangel as a pitching coach. He spent the last couple years with the Rangers and was with Cleveland for the prior decade. Seems like was a big part of their incredible pitching development run.

Some info on him here from his hiring in 2018:

"Julio has a unique background," general manager Jon Daniels said, "and I think he really combines a feel for the mechanical side and the use of some more advanced data and technology with an old-school piece of him at heart, with understanding how to appeal to guys of different backgrounds.

"Everyone after Julio's interview remarked on his infectious personality," Daniels added. "'Connector' was a word that his recommendations used a lot. He has a real way with communications and relationships."
 

Rich Garces Belly

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Looks like the Angels are after Vazquez or CSN is going for click bait:

“According to Murray, Boston's asking price for Vazquez is "said to be very high," and "there are doubts whether the Red Sox will entertain trading him." The Angels also are eying Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, per Murray.”

 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Looks like the Angels are after Vazquez or CSN is going for click bait:

“According to Murray, Boston's asking price for Vazquez is "said to be very high," and "there are doubts whether the Red Sox will entertain trading him." The Angels also are eying Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, per Murray.”

Definitely click bait. When it's reported that the asking price for any player is "said to be very high", it should automatically be translated to "we don't want to trade this guy so you better blow us away with an offer." Basically, it's a non-story.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Definitely click bait. When it's reported that the asking price for any player is "said to be very high", it should automatically be translated to "we don't want to trade this guy so you better blow us away with an offer." Basically, it's a non-story.
Yeah, but if we could make a trade with them that somehow helped us fill our CF hole... :)

It is odd. The Sox have really no reason to want to trade Vaz, right? It’s not like Connor Wong is beating down the door (yet).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yeah, but if we could make a trade with them that somehow helped us fill our CF hole... :)

It is odd. The Sox have really no reason to want to trade Vaz, right? It’s not like Connor Wong is beating down the door (yet).
No, the Sox have no reason to want to trade him. And nothing in the article suggests otherwise.

This story originated from a writer outside of Boston and his source is clearly with the Angels. It's most likely someone in the Angels front office trying to work the Cubs by getting it out in the blogsphere that they have other options other than Contreras in the hopes the Cubs lower the price for him. The NBC Boston writer is just using it to fill space and get clicks for himself. There's nothing to it.

(and looking at the byline on NBC, I realize I know the guy. Have known him and his family since he was 8 or 9 years old. Small world.)
 

chawson

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Yeah, but if we could make a trade with them that somehow helped us fill our CF hole... :)

It is odd. The Sox have really no reason to want to trade Vaz, right? It’s not like Connor Wong is beating down the door (yet).
Vaz is woefully overrated, imo, and one of our only trade chips. I think Plawecki could handle a wider timeshare with someone like Tyler Flowers, who's still a FA, or more likely Max Stassi if that Angels deal would come to pass.
 

scottyno

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Vaz is woefully overrated, imo, and one of our only trade chips. I think Plawecki could handle a wider timeshare with someone like Tyler Flowers, who's still a FA, or more likely Max Stassi if that Angels deal would come to pass.
What's overrated about a projected 2.5 war catcher making just over 6 million this year?
 

allmanbro

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I realize Vazquez has a lot of value now, given how good he's been the last couple years, and how dismal offense has been at the C position across the league. I am glad they are asking a lot, and frankly, I hope they can keep him around as part of the "next great Red Sox team" so to speak. Even just on his current contract, getting basically league average hitting from that position would be an important part of the 2022 team. I don't expect them to compete in 2021, but I think they can by then.

Maybe I am being sentimental a bit, and he is already 30.
 

chawson

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What's overrated about a projected 2.5 war catcher making just over 6 million this year?
You're probably right, my statement was a bit hyperbolic. He's great for his salary, very durable and terrific defensively. Watching games, I think the bat is still a bit juiced ball-aided, but who's to say. Given where we are in the win cycle, I guess I just don't think he's part of the NGRST.
 

scottyno

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You're probably right, my statement was a bit hyperbolic. He's great for his salary, very durable and terrific defensively. Watching games, I think the bat is still a bit juiced ball-aided, but who's to say. Given where we are in the win cycle, I guess I just don't think he's part of the NGRST.
The next great sox team could easily be 2022 with a stacked free agent class coming and a lot of money to spend, and it's not impossible that it's 2021.

If someone blows them away with an offer then sure, but he's the type of guy they should want on this team right now, underpaid talent.
 

Yo La Tengo

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If Eddie Rosario is settling for a 1 year $8 million contract, looks like there are going to be some deals for teams that wait.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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You're probably right, my statement was a bit hyperbolic. He's great for his salary, very durable and terrific defensively. Watching games, I think the bat is still a bit juiced ball-aided, but who's to say. Given where we are in the win cycle, I guess I just don't think he's part of the NGRST.
I'd be curious where Vaz would line up with some of the Sox C's of the past. I think he's underrated actually, is still young for a C and has possibly 5 good years left on that back and those legs. If he could continue his last few years production and still be an average C defensively, he'd rank up there with Tek and Pudge. He doesn't seem to have quite the personality of those guys in the media but part of that was the times (the 70's great Sox teams chasing the Yankees and the Sox team that finally did it).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'd be curious where Vaz would line up with some of the Sox C's of the past. I think he's underrated actually, is still young for a C and has possibly 5 good years left on that back and those legs. If he could continue his last few years production and still be an average C defensively, he'd rank up there with Tek and Pudge. He doesn't seem to have quite the personality of those guys in the media but part of that was the times (the 70's great Sox teams chasing the Yankees and the Sox team that finally did it).
By fWAR (Fangraphs was easier to isolate all Sox Cs), Vazquez is fifth all-time in Red Sox history. He trails only Fisk, Varitek, Gedman, and Ferrell. He's only 0.2 behind Ferrell and 3.3 behind Gedman, which just about jibes with where I'd have put him just shooting from the hip with no stats...a couple solid seasons from being a clear #3 in team history.
 

allmanbro

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Carlos Rodon at $3 mil seems like a move the Red Sox could have/should have made.
Ya, I also liked him as a gamble, but maybe he wanted to stay in Chicago.


With Arenado coming in, the Cardinals are likely well above their normal payroll outlay, and might be interested in shedding some salary. They have basically dead money in Fowler and Carpenter now (both with only one year left, Carp has a no trade clause though). They have some good pitching prospects who are expected to arrive in the next couple years, and might want to get rid of Martinez (who the sox might see as a worthwhile lottery ticket). It would be tough to make the money work, but there are a lot of options. Although, if the Sox get a good enough prospect back, they might be happy to blow through the salary cap this year. Libertore is presumably off the table unfortunately.
 

scottyno

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Gonzalez would continue to fit the trend of this year and 2013, sign a bunch of mediocre players to short term contracts, have a decent shot at the wild card, and hope things come together better than expected in the playoffs
 

allmanbro

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Feels like there would be someone more interesting than Gonzalez available, but whatever. He's acceptable as a 4th OF, and pretty good as a 5th.

On an unrelated note, Sean Doolittle and Hector Rondon have both signed. It doesn't matter much, but I would have liked to see one or both of them as reclamation projects in the pen. I'm still hoping we see another lottery ticket or two added there.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Feels like there would be someone more interesting than Gonzalez available, but whatever. He's acceptable as a 4th OF, and pretty good as a 5th.

On an unrelated note, Sean Doolittle and Hector Rondon have both signed. It doesn't matter much, but I would have liked to see one or both of them as reclamation projects in the pen. I'm still hoping we see another lottery ticket or two added there.
Agree with allmanbro on both points.

Gonzales does not really seems to bring much upside at this point of his career. Why spend that money on a player like him (bringing us that much closer to the CBT) - either find someone with more upside or let the in-house options play out.

And we still need at least one more credible piece in the bullpen. I though Doolittle would have been a decent option. Trevor Rosenthal would be nice, but is probably outside their remaining budget. Still a lot of FA relievers out there on the market, but most are not any better than some of the mediocrity we already have on the roster.
 

dynomite

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Feels like there would be someone more interesting than Gonzalez available, but whatever. He's acceptable as a 4th OF, and pretty good as a 5th.

On an unrelated note, Sean Doolittle and Hector Rondon have both signed. It doesn't matter much, but I would have liked to see one or both of them as reclamation projects in the pen. I'm still hoping we see another lottery ticket or two added there.
Doolittle is my favorite non-Red Sock off the field, but he has lost 3 mph off his fastball and is 34, so I get that he carried a decent amount of risk.

Fortunately as Dewey says above there are a ton of "oh right, that relief guy" guys still unsigned: Brad Boxberger, Steve Cishek, Sergio Romo, Pedro Strop, Shane Greene, Yoshihisa Hirano, Tony Watson, old friends Melancon and Workman and Hembree, etc. All of them carry different levels of injury and performance risk, but some will inevitably end up having a good year.
 

allmanbro

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Doolittle is my favorite non-Red Sock off the field, but he has lost 3 mph off his fastball and is 34, so I get that he carried a decent amount of risk.

Fortunately as Dewey says above there are a ton of "oh right, that relief guy" guys still unsigned: Brad Boxberger, Steve Cishek, Sergio Romo, Pedro Strop, Shane Greene, Yoshihisa Hirano, Tony Watson, old friends Melancon and Workman and Hembree, etc. All of them carry different levels of injury and performance risk, but some will inevitably end up having a good year.
Yes, my perception of Doolittle is colored by thinking he seems like a great guy. Any of the names you list would definitely fit as well, and the scouts/analytics dept know a lot more than I do. Sticking on the sentimental side, I'm sure Falmouth native Cishek would enjoy a chance to pitch for the Sox.
 

Manramsclan

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Yes, my perception of Doolittle is colored by thinking he seems like a great guy.
Also, given his musical proclivities he almost certainly loves the Allman Bros.

I feel similarly about signing one of those relievers for market rate as many on here feel about signing Marwin Gonzalez. Maybe at a supreme discount but I don't want the Sox to be leading the market on them. Wait it out and sign the one left over. I think among those names listed it's a crapshoot to which one of them has a good year, and I don't think paying more for the most desirable one will actually mitigate that risk.
 

bohous

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Yes, my perception of Doolittle is colored by thinking he seems like a great guy. Any of the names you list would definitely fit as well, and the scouts/analytics dept know a lot more than I do. Sticking on the sentimental side, I'm sure Falmouth native Cishek would enjoy a chance to pitch for the Sox.
Thought the same thing with Cishek. Bad year last year, but solid K rate and apparently still had good velocity. Of the guys on dynomite's list, probably the best upside potential.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I'm interested in Collin McHugh or Yusmeiro Petit to absorb all of those innings created by likely shortened starts (due to starters lack of innings last year and the health issues a number of pitchers are dealing with), especially at the beginning of the season.
 

jon abbey

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I'm interested in Collin McHugh or Yusmeiro Petit to absorb all of those innings created by likely shortened starts (due to starters lack of innings last year and the health issues a number of pitchers are dealing with), especially at the beginning of the season.
I've been eyeing Petit for NY also, maybe him or Shane Greene.
 

Rich Garces Belly

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I'm interested in Collin McHugh or Yusmeiro Petit to absorb all of those innings created by likely shortened starts (due to starters lack of innings last year and the health issues a number of pitchers are dealing with), especially at the beginning of the season.
Absolutely, those two would be good fits, preferably Petit. I also wouldn’t mind additionally seeing Porcello come back on a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. I don’t see Porcello getting more than that after his last two seasons and I would take a shot.
 

amRadio

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Ever since he stunted on Eck and embarrassed him with that picture, something about JBJ has rubbed me wrong. I've always felt he was overrated but he gave us a great year in 2016 and a timely couple of hits in 2018. Still, I think I might enjoy him sitting on the market looking for his overrated contract for as long as Kimbrel did. I hope he overplays his hand.

Looking at Springer and his new contract, he's been a 4.8 bWAR player for the last four seasons before COVID. For fun, let's call him a 5 win player. Signed for 25M per, so 5M per win. That has me figuring that as a 3.3 bWAR player over the last four years JBJ is probably looking for something in the vicinity of 5/85M and would settle for 4/65-70M. I wouldn't give JBJ that kind of money, WAR be damned. 3/45M is a little rich for him, in my opinion. With the prolonged stretches of offensive ineptitude, and the declining defense I would think the league at large would be unwilling to go to four years. It will be interesting to see what happens there.
 

ehaz

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Ever since he stunted on Eck and embarrassed him with that picture, something about JBJ has rubbed me wrong. I've always felt he was overrated but he gave us a great year in 2016 and a timely couple of hits in 2018. Still, I think I might enjoy him sitting on the market looking for his overrated contract for as long as Kimbrel did. I hope he overplays his hand.

Looking at Springer and his new contract, he's been a 4.8 bWAR player for the last four seasons before COVID. For fun, let's call him a 5 win player. Signed for 25M per, so 5M per win. That has me figuring that as a 3.3 bWAR player over the last four years JBJ is probably looking for something in the vicinity of 5/85M and would settle for 4/65-70M. I wouldn't give JBJ that kind of money, WAR be damned. 3/45M is a little rich for him, in my opinion. With the prolonged stretches of offensive ineptitude, and the declining defense I would think the league at large would be unwilling to go to four years. It will be interesting to see what happens there.
That report shocked me. I'd be surprised if someone is willing to give him 3/$30. Nothing against him, I love JBJ and wanted him back but he's 31 and a bad hitter.