Luis Urias to Red Sox
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Nice writeup, hadn't seen that.
Of course a big part of what the heck's gone on with him is injury. He hurt his hamstring in the home opener and didn't return until June 5.
FanGraphs' #24 prospect in 2019. I think worst case scenario he's Christian Arroyo for the next couple years, but with twice the walk rate.
I actually really like this trade. I was hoping the Sox would go out and add someone that should be better than anyone they have in the organization to play the non-Story MI position, not only for the rest of this year, but with term as well, and Urias fits that bill.
I like adding guys with good minors numbers, and prospect pedigree that other teams give up on (even in his combined 120ish games his first three years, he was still useful enough, getting around 1bWAR combined.
He‘s been terrible this year, but as others have mentioned is coming off a 3.3bWAR season at age 24 and a 3.1bWAR season at age 25. Or, put another way, in 2/3 of his season last year he provided more value than Arroyo has his entire career.
Christian Arroyo has literally never showed anything over a sustained period of time to show he belongs starting in the big leagues, combining multiple seasons of terrible performance or slightly above replacement performance before getting hurt.
Urias certainly is no bet to stay healthy a full season either, but at least he was a pretty good bet to play around 125 games instead of 60, and was pretty darn good the last two years. I seem to recall the Sox being in on him last off season (may have been Wong), and would’ve been thrilled to have landed him in February, when he would’ve cost a lot more.
I am really quite intrigued by this. I hope he reports to the Sox, but he’s likely headed to Worcester. But I think it’s highly probable he would be the most valuable non-Story MI option if he was brought up now. A good buy low option that cost something it’s highly unlikely the Sox will ever miss.
I like adding guys with good minors numbers, and prospect pedigree that other teams give up on (even in his combined 120ish games his first three years, he was still useful enough, getting around 1bWAR combined.
He‘s been terrible this year, but as others have mentioned is coming off a 3.3bWAR season at age 24 and a 3.1bWAR season at age 25. Or, put another way, in 2/3 of his season last year he provided more value than Arroyo has his entire career.
Christian Arroyo has literally never showed anything over a sustained period of time to show he belongs starting in the big leagues, combining multiple seasons of terrible performance or slightly above replacement performance before getting hurt.
Urias certainly is no bet to stay healthy a full season either, but at least he was a pretty good bet to play around 125 games instead of 60, and was pretty darn good the last two years. I seem to recall the Sox being in on him last off season (may have been Wong), and would’ve been thrilled to have landed him in February, when he would’ve cost a lot more.
I am really quite intrigued by this. I hope he reports to the Sox, but he’s likely headed to Worcester. But I think it’s highly probable he would be the most valuable non-Story MI option if he was brought up now. A good buy low option that cost something it’s highly unlikely the Sox will ever miss.
I like the deal. If he shows something between what he has been and is now when Mayer is ready, he is either tradeable again or bench depth.
There's an ok chance Blalock is an effective reliever, but a very low chance he is a big contributor as a starter if you go by the odds.
Curious if they shopped Arroyo, because the team may be better off in the majors right now with Urias on the team.
There's an ok chance Blalock is an effective reliever, but a very low chance he is a big contributor as a starter if you go by the odds.
Curious if they shopped Arroyo, because the team may be better off in the majors right now with Urias on the team.
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Urias is an interesting guy to a look at over the next few months- but he’s a potential non-tender with that salary, no?
Possibly, yes. But would the season he's had this year help keep his salary down? I guess it will depend more on the 150 or so PA gets with Boston than the 65 he had in Milwaukee.
The fact that they gave up something kind of useful makes me think they view him as having a really good shot at being part of the roster going forward.
I like this move. Great bounceback candidate and addresses a real area of need for minimal cost, which is sorta Bloom's trade deadline specialty, it seems.
This is a very borderline playoff team with core players who will be here for many seasons and which represents the beginning of a (hopefully) long window. So you keep the faith with them that this is a year worth competing for without weakening your hand tomorrow. Not much to dislike with the approach taken, I don't think.
For the day to day, middle infield woes were what made me want to find an angry ferret that would gouge my eyes out during a number of games, so hopefully between this, Hernandez leaving and Story's return Bloom's addressed what was easily the worst part of the 2023 daily Red Sox viewing experience.
Let's see what this team can do for the next couple of months. I'm excited for the rest of the ride.
This is a very borderline playoff team with core players who will be here for many seasons and which represents the beginning of a (hopefully) long window. So you keep the faith with them that this is a year worth competing for without weakening your hand tomorrow. Not much to dislike with the approach taken, I don't think.
For the day to day, middle infield woes were what made me want to find an angry ferret that would gouge my eyes out during a number of games, so hopefully between this, Hernandez leaving and Story's return Bloom's addressed what was easily the worst part of the 2023 daily Red Sox viewing experience.
Let's see what this team can do for the next couple of months. I'm excited for the rest of the ride.
The Red Sox will be playing another season after this one. And then another one. I’m both of them, Urias will be under Red Sox control.
Yes, hopefully Luis can pull it together and make something of what has been a lost year. He certainly appears to be our best option for 2b in 2023 if not next year too. Good position flexibility too so could be useful UI down the road. I do wonder who he replaces. I am thinking Chang is expendable with the return of Story, with Reyes or Arroyo sharing 2b with Urias. Any news on when Enmanuel V returns to action? I would be inclined to have him on MLB roster over both Reyes and Arroyo now, especially if they think Urias could back up at SS if required.
Luis's older brother is Ramon Urias of the Orioles. Ramon is three years older and has 0.1 less war, 7.1 to 7.0.
Thank to both of you. It was an honest question. Thought I might have missed some reference.
I like this move a lot. If he can bounce back to 2021-22, he's a much better option than Arroyo and Chang. Plus it probably helps Turner stay healthy by not playing defense as often.
I wish they could've swung a trade for one of the St. Louis MIers but this makes a lot of sense.
I wish they could've swung a trade for one of the St. Louis MIers but this makes a lot of sense.
I'm not sure I understand this move.
I agree he is a much better option than Arroyo or Chang, but that's not say too much is it? If he is in the plans for 2024, why is he in Worcester? Why not just cut loose Reyes now, and see what Urias does in Boston?
My guess is that the Sox do not tender him in the offseason. Probably there will be cheaper, faster and better alternatives.
While I tend to agree, Donovan going out for the season really put a damper on that hope, at least for me.
Gorman is the one I like the best long term, but it's close because Donovan is so versatile and thus might have been a better fit for Boston with the ability to also play in the corner OF positions. Edman is a really good player as well, but I'm sure he would have cost a good bit more than Urias. For example, BTV has Edman for Rafaela as almost a completely even swap.
I do think the Sox should cash in some prospect chips (and should have done it this deadline) for guys with term that filled holes, but I'd have been more focused on players like (Donovan, Cease, Gilbert, etc) with those type of moves. I'd have preferred them to be able to be involved with Scherzer and Verlander, but they failed to get under the tax last year, so couldn't go after those guys this year. So if it's Edman for Rafaela or Urias for Blalock, I'd rather pay the price on the latter every time. (A healthy Donovan or Gorman would've been a different story, and also would have cost more than Rafaela).
@BravesField I agree they should have gotten rid of Arroyo long ago and at minimum right now to let Urias play. There may be cheaper alternatives in the off season and there would certainly be better ones, but I don't think they're going to find anyone this combination of "cheap" and "good"; and they certainly don't have it in the major leagues right now. Arroyo is not a good baseball player. He has played 7 seasons in the majors; he gets hurt all the time, and in those 7 seasons combined he has produced a 2.1bwAR; Urias put up a 3.1 bWAR last season alone.
If people prefer fWAR, Urias put up a 2.1 fWAR in 2021 and a 2.3 fWAR in 2022; Arroyo has put up a combined .6 fWAR over his entire 7 year career. There was nothing wrong with taking a flier on Arroyo several years ago, but at this point, I really don't get the fascination with Arroyo, either from the front office or fans.
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I'm mostly a "In Chaim we trust" kind of guy, but I'd be the first to admit he sure picks up a lot a shiny objects on the side of the road and keeps then, hoping they'll eventually be worth something.
I had wondered about Urias in one of the trade threads as a potential “buy low” move on a guy with a lot of pedigree as a prospect coming up and having two solid MLB seasons already under his belt.
Injuries and bad luck seemed to have derailed 2023 so far, but now that he’s healthy, I love this move.
Injuries and bad luck seemed to have derailed 2023 so far, but now that he’s healthy, I love this move.
Pretty bullish on this specific move and glad to see some MI depth. I’ve been more of a skeptic though, with the general thought process any decent GM could take 200m and produce a 500 team while hording all prospects: no differentiated skills just draft who the scouts say then sit on ‘em. Some clearly differ but I think it’s ok to doubt the player (Bloom) and not the game(rebuild system).
I’ve watched horrible baseball for several years (guys who just can’t field their positions and leading the league in errors every year) but Im coming around based on the wave of prospects about to reach shore.
That’s said, Bloom still has to show he can create a winner, and outgrow his inner Cherington and actually turn those pieces into a MLB players. Or I guess maybe not and buy and hold will work eventually...either way a WS is looking closer with the incoming talent.
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I don't mind this move, tough for me to get worked up either way.
Agreed that this may add a little redundancy in terms of the depth chart. The Sox are taking a bet on a guy who had put up 2 solid seasons of production, and has been hampered with injuries this year.
The interesting part of this deal was who the Sox traded away. Bradley Blalock is Rule 5 eligible this winter, and from what I have gathered, he probably would not have been protected. Urias is under contract until the end of 2025.
This boils down to moving a player that probably would have been lost, and getting a guy who has had major league success that is under contract. Things like that are important in my opinion, adding around the margins and moving someone who may have left the organization for nothing.
Agreed that this may add a little redundancy in terms of the depth chart. The Sox are taking a bet on a guy who had put up 2 solid seasons of production, and has been hampered with injuries this year.
The interesting part of this deal was who the Sox traded away. Bradley Blalock is Rule 5 eligible this winter, and from what I have gathered, he probably would not have been protected. Urias is under contract until the end of 2025.
This boils down to moving a player that probably would have been lost, and getting a guy who has had major league success that is under contract. Things like that are important in my opinion, adding around the margins and moving someone who may have left the organization for nothing.
Given the way he's never looked right since returning from injury, it's a possibility they feel he still needs rehab or adjustments that they'd rather get done in the minors.
Add to that the fact that Toronto trading for DeJong as insurance at SS after Bichette's injury and all of a sudden St. Louis has less of a log jam up the middle.
I think that rule is still August 31 roster requirement (or IL). The new rules is no more waiver trades after the deadline. And, of course, no more massive additions to the active roster on September 1
Perhaps it might be a matter of letting him get his feet wet in WOOstah first. I've a feeling that Arroyo gets the nod short term and Urias is waiting in the wings.
Urias is one of the shinier objects, though. He'd immediately have the third highest BB% on the team, and he hasn't had a season of good BABIP luck in the majors yet (although that might be a function of the fact that he doesn't hit the ball all that hard). If he breaks out, he could break out in a big way. He's younger than Arroyo and Wong, and the same age as Duran and Devers. I hope the second he's ready they DFA Arroyo.
There's plenty of other nice grabs: McGuire was a steal, Wong was a nice return, Schreiber was a great pickup, as was Bernardino. We had to wait a while for Paxton, but he's been very good too.
I'd guess Chang, as he fits the defensive specialist mold. Arroyo isn't good at anything and can't really play SS. Reyes can play the outfield, but we've already got five of those.
Here's Urias' baseballsavant profile, for those who care. Really looks like, given his arm strength, he was miscast as a SS and 3B, as others have noted. Also not a guy who's gonna hit rockets all over the field, but he walks a ton and doesn't strike out that much. Fenway should be kind to him as a right-handed hitter who hits a lot of fly balls.
K. Wong has been horrendous this year, even against RHP. Against righties, he has a .501 OPS in 188 PA, so no platoon advantage there.
If he will take a minor league deal, then sure why not. But he is six year older than Urias and has been even worse this year in more major league PAs.
Yeah I don’t see much reason to experiment with Kolten Wong unless it’s a cheap minor league deal as you said. Urias has considerably more upside than Wong and Wong hasn’t been a very good fielder for a couple seasons now.
Story is eligible to come back sooner, yes? I was always thinking that Chang was the first of the odd men out, but now I'm wondering if it might be Reyes. Reyes clearly took over the Kike' role but with Duran now firmly established and Duvall not being moved the Sox have 5 guys that will rotate through the OF. I think Chang's ability to play 4 positions in the IF tips the scales toward him surviving the initial cut. Of Chang and Arroyo, I think Arroyo is given the opportunity to save his spot on the roster.
There is a career path in Boston only, for a low power fly ball host who can hit cans of corn into the Monster, just out of reach of the left fielder.
There's also a career for Sons of Sam Horn posters trying to figure out how much a given hitter will be helped by the odd dimensions of the park.
For what it's worth, Cherington was far more aggressive than Bloom has been. I'm not saying if one was good or bad; right or wrong to be clear.
Is the prevailing belief that Cherington was in charge on Theo's hiatus or not? If he was, he is the one who decided to move Hanley and Sanchez for Beckett and Lowell; if it's accepted this was Theo's call, disregard this.
He moved prospects for Bailey (2012). When the 2012 team was out of it, we had the franchise saving Punto trade.
He moved prospects for Hanrahan (2013). In 2013 he identified Iglesias as someone he could move from the MLB roster to add pitching. He was also very willing to bring up his top prospects more quickly (Bogaerts had less than 150g combined in AA/AAA, Betts had 100 combined; Workman had 21g in AA/AAA combined before coming up in 2013; Middlebrooks had around a combined 130 in AA/AAA before coming up to Boston - those are just off the top of my head).
In 2014 he was willing to move Lester, Lackey and Andrew Miller.
Again, I'm not trying to say if one is right or wrong, just that for better or worse Cherington more aggressively used the pieces he had than Bloom has to this point.
*I think one has to be consistent and grade the front office either on the moves like they were in charge or to say that FSG is in charge and they're all puppets. I don't think you can say "well FSG is in charge in this instance but not this instance" and remain consistent. So I'm saying the FO is in charge and grading each one as such.
Ha! Funny. Urias was already in a hitter-friendly park in Milwaukee, so I wouldn't worry about trying to forecast how much he's improved.
Luckily, a lot of his value comes from his on-base skills and power.1000 plate appearances at a wrc+ of 111, which was mostly OBP. If he can just get back to being a BABIP guy around .280 instead of .178, then he'll do what we need him to do.
I'm very excited to have a guy at 2B who does something other than hack. I can't emphasize enough how much better it will be to watch him hit than Arroyo and Chang, even if it means a lot of soft flyballs and grounders. It will also do a lot to lengthen the lineup. He just needs to get going. It's possible, truly possible, that doesn't happen this year. But I would be surprised if that above-average hitter has just evaporated at the age of 26.
Thanks for adding the deeper context, quite relevant and I had oversimplified his tenure in my mind.
I also want to be clear I wouldn't have expected Bloom to buy with prospects to this point, but from my perspective he's on the clock now in a different way (aka judged more harshly and purely against MLB outcomes and not farm love).
I also don't mean to pollute another thread w/ 'to Bloom or not to Bloom' so I'll stop : )
No problem at all. Plenty of folks on here share things I didn't know, so I'm happy to be able to pay it forward when I can.
I think the conversation of how Bloom does at his job is integral to discussing the Red Sox. In no way was it a "Bloom is awesome / Bloom is terrible" post. It's also extremely relevant to the conversation of "if" Bloom should have acted differently in any trade deadline (or this one) and what we should hope for moving forward.
Peavy (and the 2013 team) is an interesting example. He wasn't as awesome as he once was, but had a ton of pedigree, was a "name" and had term left, and he provided some needed help for a rotation that lost one of it's best pitchers who was also very injury prone but was also "coming back" in Clay Buchholz. Even though he wasn't that much better at the time than Dempster or Doubront, he really helped down the stretch, outpitched those two, and helped a team that was .5 games up at the end of July hold on to win the division, get HFA through the playoffs and won a World Series.
To be fair, the Jeff Suppan trade is the other side of that coin, when Theo moved Freddy Sanchez for him. Suppan was atrocious down the stretch and was (I believe) left off the playoff roster. Sanchez wasn't exactly missed, but went on to have a nice enough career - and was far more useful than Jeff Suppan - aside from his role as an embedded Red Sox in the 2004 World Series.
Would the 2021 team have done that with Scherzer or Berrios. Would they have ended up exactly where they were (similar to 2003). Could the 2023 team have done that with Scherzer or Verlander. We'll never know (well, to be fair at this point we don't know, the 2023 team still might, but I doubt it).
But it's an interesting thought question and one certainly relevant to the discussion.
I think the conversation of how Bloom does at his job is integral to discussing the Red Sox. In no way was it a "Bloom is awesome / Bloom is terrible" post. It's also extremely relevant to the conversation of "if" Bloom should have acted differently in any trade deadline (or this one) and what we should hope for moving forward.
Peavy (and the 2013 team) is an interesting example. He wasn't as awesome as he once was, but had a ton of pedigree, was a "name" and had term left, and he provided some needed help for a rotation that lost one of it's best pitchers who was also very injury prone but was also "coming back" in Clay Buchholz. Even though he wasn't that much better at the time than Dempster or Doubront, he really helped down the stretch, outpitched those two, and helped a team that was .5 games up at the end of July hold on to win the division, get HFA through the playoffs and won a World Series.
To be fair, the Jeff Suppan trade is the other side of that coin, when Theo moved Freddy Sanchez for him. Suppan was atrocious down the stretch and was (I believe) left off the playoff roster. Sanchez wasn't exactly missed, but went on to have a nice enough career - and was far more useful than Jeff Suppan - aside from his role as an embedded Red Sox in the 2004 World Series.
Would the 2021 team have done that with Scherzer or Berrios. Would they have ended up exactly where they were (similar to 2003). Could the 2023 team have done that with Scherzer or Verlander. We'll never know (well, to be fair at this point we don't know, the 2023 team still might, but I doubt it).
But it's an interesting thought question and one certainly relevant to the discussion.
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Yes, although at the plate Urias is a nice middle-ground between Bellhorn and Walker: slightly more pop that Walker, better walk rate than Walke, but worse than Bellhorn, but far fewer K's than Bellhorn (like 10% less), who was a guy who struck out 30% of the time by the end of his career.
I have fewer concerns about him flaming out in a Bellhornish way -- Bellhorn put up a 114 wrc+ in 2004 (on a .364 BABIP!) and by 2007 he was out of the major leagues.
Urias meanwhile hasn't sustained a full season of league-average BABIP, so we may have yet to see peak-Urias, or a Urias who's had any sustained luck on balls in play. On the other hand, he's never been a guy who hit the ball hard a ton, so that may never happen for him.
It would not surprise me if we see Urias in Boston as early as Friday. I don't know where he was yesterday, but flying him to Seattle for an afternoon game today just to bring him back to Boston seems like a crappy introduction to his new team.
The one I had in mind actually also involved Milwaukee, but them trading for Adames back in 2021.
Urias didn't have quite the prospect pedigree that Adames did, and got to his "value" a little differently, but Adames was a 7.5 bWAR through his first 335ish games at age 25 and he was having a miserable offensive season for Tampa at the time with a .625 OPS. Urias has a 7.1 bWAR over his first 415ish games, and is having a miserable offensive season at age 26. Not quite an exact parallel, but at least more recent than the early 2000s and possibly a bit better factoring in the ages of the players at the time (I think Walker was 30 and Bellhorn was 29).
Adames is / was the better player, at least by a little bit, but TB also gave up a heck of a lot more.
I don't think Urias can get to Boston soon enough.
Totally agree. The near-elite chase rate in particular is really encouraging. And there are no real platoon splits.
I think he's going to be a pleasant surprise for a lot of folks, and getting him for basically free is tremendous.
He was in Nashville playing for the Brewers AAA affiliate, something he's been doing since the end of June. I don't expect him to be called up until he's played a few games for the WooSox and the coaching staff and scouts there get a chance to see him up close. This was not a trade designed to immediately upgrade Reyes/Chang/Arroyo.