The AL East is so loaded both now and going forward that it has to make it even harder for GMs to know when to push chips in and mortgage some of their future.
So given that, I will take a quick run at handicapping the odds of the AL East teams for a Soto deal by August 2, I am sure we will read much much more about this in the next couple of weeks.
BAL: If it was just about talent and Elias really wanted Soto at any cost, a Gunnar Henderson/Grayson Rodriguez package would be a strong front-runner and maybe almost enough on its own. But BAL is not swimming in young talent, that would put a big dent in their future (yes, Soto is 23 still, but just controlled through 2024). It doesn't seem like the kind of move they would push hard to make at this point in their hopeful upswing, plus like I said above, I don't see WAS sending him to BAL if there is anywhere else they can send him, and of course there will be.
Odds: under 1 percent
BOS: This would start with Mayer, no way around that, and then a lot of it depends on how much WAS likes him compared to the other top prospects offered. BOS also I am not sure has enough excess young talent for this to make enough sense at this point in their cycle, but if Chaim wanted to push hard and he was willing to mortgage the farm, I don't think it's impossible. Also Soto seems to be a Celtics fan, not that he will get much of a vote in this, I guess, but he certainly will after 2024.
Odds: 3 percent
NYY: Obviously the situation I know the best...
Cashman is generally a pretty cautious GM in terms of big risks, he did trade for Stanton but gave up close to no talent there while also getting rid of Starlin Castro's useless deal which allowed them to slot in Gleyber at 2B right away. There is so much that we don't know about which players Cashman is slotting in long-term or planning on going hard after from other organizations, but NY I think is one of the teams that could offer a compelling package and still put a very good team around Soto. Volpe/Dominguez plus 4-5 potential stud pitchers, that has to be very tempting and NY churns out stud pitching prospects now under Matt Blake. Cashman has shown nothing in his history that says he will take this big a swing though, as opposed to his bringing in guys like Clay Holmes and Jose Trevino and Matt Carpenter at minimal cost, all three acquired in the past 12 months for four underwhelming prospects combined. There has never been someone like Soto available though, let alone for 2 1/2 years, so the more I roll this around in my head, the more it makes potential sense to me (and I'm sure to a lot of other actual GMs, heh).
Odds: 17 percent
TB: It does make sense in the way that
@VORP Speed explained above, but what is the package they could offer to compete with the NY one I suggested (Volpe/Dominguez and 4-5 genuine SP prospects) above? I don't think baseballtradevalues does a great job keeping up with the actual rapidly changing value of specific prospects, so I am genuinely asking what you think their best offer might be.
Odds: 3 percent unless your offer is more impressive than I can see possible.
TOR: They have the most aggressive front office currently in the division and hence the worst farm system of the five, but they have shown themselves willing to bid as much as they have to to get their trade targets, so I don't rule them out on anyone available currently. The issue they face (similar to the Mets) is that their best prospect to lead a trade package is a C (Moreno), and Kelbert Ruiz is one of the few pieces WAS has in place already, or hopes they have in place. But a Moreno/Martinez/Tiedemann/Groshans offer I think would have to at least get them in the discussion, definitely not ruling them out.
Odds: 10 percent
These obviously made-up odds are assuming he is actually traded by Aug 2, so the other 29 non-WAS teams add up to 100 total. The Dodgers are probably the favorite overall IMO, they figured out the deal for Scherzer/Turner deal with WAS last year and are always seemingly looking to consolidate some of their endless stream of prospects into pricy superstars. I wouldn't be surprised if they got both Soto and Luis Castillo actually. I haven't gone through team by team but the Dodgers would maybe be somewhere at 25 or 30 percent IMO.