Juan Soto is on the trade block; rejects $440 million contract extension from Washington

[OurF'ingCity]

These discussions always remind me of the Garnett trade in the summer of 2007. A not insignificant number of people were very concerned about letting Al Jefferson go in that deal, thinking he was on the precipice of becoming a star. I just kept thinking that the Cs would be getting a player that has already realized the potential that we were fervently wishing that Jefferson might achieve. So yeah, empty the farm for a guy like Soto.

Agree 100%. I can’t say I’ve done a full analysis but anecdotally, haven’t these kinds of “trade top prospects for stars” trades pretty much always worked out in the Sox’ favor? The trade for Pedro, the trade for Sale, the trade for Beckett/Lowell, the trade for Schilling to a lesser degree - all were pretty clear wins and all led to future championships.

“Empty the farm” might be a bit strong but trading, say, Casas, Mayer, and a top pitching prospect would be an easy “yes” to me.

And if part of the trade involved taking on Corbin’s contract the Sox might not even need to give that much up - Corbin and Soto would be pretty close to Mookie and Price, so what’s the equivalent of Verdugo and Downs? Maybe Casas and Mata?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

These discussions always remind me of the Garnett trade in the summer of 2007. A not insignificant number of people were very concerned about letting Al Jefferson go in that deal, thinking he was on the precipice of becoming a star. I just kept thinking that the Cs would be getting a player that has already realized the potential that we were fervently wishing that Jefferson might achieve. So yeah, empty the farm for a guy like Soto.

This is where I am too. Mayer might be as good Soto is right now, but there's a huge chance that he won't. I say grab the sure thing today.

And I'm pretty sure people were saying the same thing about Pedro when the Sox got him. "He'll never be able to pitch here like he did in Montreal. Too much preshah and he won't have to throw against other pitchahs! And he's gonna want too much money! Pavano is gonna be a stud!"

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Totally get what you are saying- but the other side of the coin is that Juan Soto is Anthony Davis and Mayer and Casas are Tatum and Brown. There were surely instances in which the Sox could have traded Betts or Devers before they were stars- every star was an unproven player at one point.


Are the Sox, as formulated this year and next, a Soto away from legit title contention? I suspect not, and I suspect that there are going to be many organizations far more aggressive than the Sox. If we’ve learned anything about Bloom, I think it’s that he likes to keep his options open and isn’t going to fall in love with any one specific player.

Will be interesting to see what happens, for sure.

 

[sodenj5]

Agree 100%. I can’t say I’ve done a full analysis but anecdotally, haven’t these kinds of “trade top prospects for stars” trades pretty much always worked out in the Sox’ favor? The trade for Pedro, the trade for Sale, the trade for Beckett/Lowell, the trade for Schilling to a lesser degree - all were pretty clear wins and all led to future championships.

“Empty the farm” might be a bit strong but trading, say, Casas, Mayer, and a top pitching prospect would be an easy “yes” to me.

And if part of the trade involved taking on Corbin’s contract the Sox might not even need to give that much up - Corbin and Soto would be pretty close to Mookie and Price, so what’s the equivalent of Verdugo and Downs? Maybe Casas and Mata?

I think in baseball, the hit rate on prospects varies pretty wildly and it takes so much longer to see a ROI, that the sure fire star usually ends up making the acquiring team look good.

There isn’t a Herschel Walker scenario where Boston trades the farm for Soto and all of a sudden in 2-3 years most of those guys are playing at an All-Star level. Maybe Mayer. Maybe Casas. Everyone else is likely filler.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Nationals had Soto fly commercial to ASG

https://sports.yahoo.com/juan-sotos-flight-landed-at-130-am-before-home-run-derby-after-nationals-refused-to-charter-flight-184201895.html

 

[Kliq]

Part of having a deep farm system (and not committing to too many big salaries) is having the flexibility throughout multiple seasons to build the roster in different ways by always having prospects to unload if the right player becomes available. It's very unlikely that Mayer, Bello, Casas, etc. end up turning into players as good as Soto is right now, but if you empty the farm for Soto, you also lose the ability to trade away other prospects for other pieces you will need to contend.

I'm not necessarily against trading a bunch of top prospects for Soto, but there is more to emptying the farm than just what you are getting in return in the trade. The Sox could trade for Soto, and then be stuck with Soto (with a big salary if we sign him to an extension which you hope that we would) and no farm players either arriving to help round out the team, or available to trade for other things like pitching, bullpen arms, etc.

 

[dhappy42]

Nationals had Soto fly commercial to ASG

https://sports.yahoo.com/juan-sotos-flight-landed-at-130-am-before-home-run-derby-after-nationals-refused-to-charter-flight-184201895.html

Boo hoo. He can afford to hire his own charter. Story reads like a Boras plant.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Boo hoo. He can afford to hire his own charter. Story reads like a Boras plant.

I have no idea of the answer, but I'd guess the number of all-stars who flew commercial to the game was in the single digits

 

[dhappy42]

I have no idea of the answer, but I'd guess the number of all-stars who flew commercial to the game was in the single digits

Did the Nats at least buy him a first-class ticket?

 

[nighthob]

I'm not necessarily against trading a bunch of top prospects for Soto, but there is more to emptying the farm than just what you are getting in return in the trade. The Sox could trade for Soto, and then be stuck with Soto (with a big salary if we sign him to an extension which you hope that we would) and no farm players either arriving to help round out the team, or available to trade for other things like pitching, bullpen arms, etc.

I doubt that emptying the system will be necessary. Ultimately the only real competition I see for Boston is LA and maybe Tampa (if they decide on a year and a half rental followed by a trade to recoup prospects). The Yankees have the prospects, but Cashman gets the vapors when asked to push his prospect chips on to the table like that.

I’m wagering that something built around Casas, Bello, and Bleis with some lottery tickets like Lugo and a few guys caught in the 40 man crunch would top most of the field. I’d also not be opposed to Boston moving Bogaerts to LA for Miguel Vargas+ to restock the system after. Also if you still had Verdugo after, you could always move him to a small market team for prospects as he’s still cost controlled and will be for life mostly due to his being a LF with an average bat.

 

[VORP Speed]

Nationals had Soto fly commercial to ASG

https://sports.yahoo.com/juan-sotos-flight-landed-at-130-am-before-home-run-derby-after-nationals-refused-to-charter-flight-184201895.html

If this is going to get nasty and petty, there is one obvious destination for the Nats to stick it to Boras and Soto…..

 

[E5 Yaz]

If this is going to get nasty and petty, there is one obvious destination for the Nats to stick it to Boras and Soto…..

I liked you plan of the other day ... Rays get him for 2 years, then deal him midway through the walk year. I think that was it. Makes sense to me

 

[jon abbey]

I’m wagering that something built around Casas, Bello, and Bleis with some lottery tickets like Lugo and a few guys caught in the 40 man crunch would top most of the field.

Please don't actually wager this because it is almost certainly a wild misreading of the situation. Even if you added Mayer to that package, I think you would be below what it will actually take (watch SD and STL besides LAD).

 

[chawson]

Please don't actually wager this because it is almost certainly a wild misreading of the situation. Even if you added Mayer to that package, I think you would be below what it will actually take (watch SD and STL besides LAD).

San Diego is working on a Musgrove extension. If they can pay for that, plus mega-deals for Machado and Tatis, I think it might make all these economic rationalist Sox fans break out in hives.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Please don't actually wager this because it is almost certainly a wild misreading of the situation. Even if you added Mayer to that package, I think you would be below what it will actually take (watch SD and STL besides LAD).

Really? Mayer is #10 prospect on MLB.com’s list. Casas is 14. Bello is 44 and might be rising. What are better proposals than those 3 plus a couple of high upside fliers like Bleis from the teams you mentioned?

 

[jon abbey]

Really? Mayer is #10 prospect on MLB.com’s list. Casas is 14. Bello is 44 and might be rising. What are better proposals than those 3 plus a couple of high upside fliers like Bleis from the teams you mentioned?

Have you not been reading about this? WAS is asking for team's top 4 prospects plus more. Again, all of STL, SD and LAD can go in hard if they choose, my proposed offer for NY was Volpe/Dominguez plus 4 or 5 high-ceiling pitchers. So much of this depends on how WAS rates these top prospects, which guy they will prefer to head the package and hopefully be the new face of their franchise.

But my main point is that nighthob's original offer is way way low, Mayer has to be in there to get them in the conversation.

 

[chawson]

Really? Mayer is #10 prospect on MLB.com’s list. Casas is 14. Bello is 44 and might be rising. What are better proposals than those 3 plus a couple of high upside fliers like Bleis from the teams you mentioned?

From the sound of it from the SoxProspect guys, the prospect lists haven’t caught up to Bleis. He’s a lot better than an Engel Beltre-style flyer.

 

[Wingack]

Nationals had Soto fly commercial to ASG

https://sports.yahoo.com/juan-sotos-flight-landed-at-130-am-before-home-run-derby-after-nationals-refused-to-charter-flight-184201895.html

A’s did this with Blackburn too. I suspect that teams that were doing thus were the teams that had just one All Star representative.

 

[BigSoxFan]

From the sound of it from the SoxProspect guys, the prospect lists haven’t caught up to Bleis. He’s a lot better than an Engel Beltre-style flyer.

Which would further increase the value of that aforementioned deal. I think all of these teams being mentioned have the juice to make the deal and the Sox clearly have the prospects to get it done. The only real disadvantage is that their guys don’t have MLB experience outside of a couple ineffective Bello starts. But Casas is almost there. Bello should be ready soon to stick. And then you have potential fast risers in Mayer, Rafaela, etc.

 

[E5 Yaz]

A’s did this with Blackburn too. I suspect that teams that were doing thus were the teams that had just one All Star representative.

Yes, that's in the linked story

 

[jon abbey]

Which would further increase the value of that aforementioned deal. I think all of these teams being mentioned have the juice to make the deal and the Sox clearly have the prospects to get it done. The only real disadvantage is that their guys don’t have MLB experience outside of a couple ineffective Bello starts. But Casas is almost there. Bello should be ready soon to stick. And then you have potential fast risers in Mayer, Rafaela, etc.

Yeah, I didn't mean to overstate it. If Chaim goes after Soto hard with his top guys, they will be in the running. I doubt he will do that (just my guess) and I think they will get outbid even if he does, but we'll see.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yeah, I didn't mean to overstate it. If Chaim goes after Soto hard with his top guys, they will be in the running. I doubt he will do that (just my guess) and I think they will get outbid even if he does, but we'll see.

Ok, so your argument is that the Sox won’t pay the price necessary to obtain Soto vs. their potential offers won’t be competitive with other teams’ offers? That’s fair. I am really hopeful for Soto but I surely wouldn’t bet on Chaim meeting the price and winning this bidding war. But he absolutely has the ability to do so, if he wants to. Ditto for Yankees, Cards, Dodgers, Padres, etc.

Washington is pretty fortunate that all of these big market teams have pretty stacked prospect pools right now.

 

[jon abbey]

I don't subscribe to BP and so I haven't actually read this piece, and I am not normally a big fan of Jarrett Seidler, but he wrote a piece today on this, and the line posted on Twitter is I think the one to keep in mind when thinking about this situation.

"Whatever you think a fair trade is for Soto, keep adding to it some more."

This is assuming it happens this deadline, by August 2. If it goes until the offseason, the offers would (should) come down some, 2 years of control as opposed to 2 plus a stretch run.

View: https://twitter.com/jaseidler/status/1549382475528429568

 

[jon abbey]

Ok, so your argument is that the Sox won’t pay the price necessary to obtain Soto vs. their potential offers won’t be competitive with other teams’ offers? That’s fair.

It is kind of both, Chaim has worked hard to build up the farm the last few years and moving what it would take to get Soto I think would not leave them in a great position to surround him with a winning team. I also think that even if Chaim does decide to go all out for Soto, other teams will offer sexier, more tempting packages. This is one WAS will have to sell to whatever fan base they have left, so for instance Volpe and Mayer may be similar level prospects but Volpe being a couple years closer to MLB helps in this calculus I think. I am just a bozo on his couch, though, so we'll see.

(If I were Cashman, my priority right now would be Luis Castillo first and foremost, maybe Sean Murphy also, and hope that Soto is not moved until the offseason.)

 

[moondog80]

Have you not been reading about this? WAS is asking for team's top 4 prospects plus more. Again, all of STL, SD and LAD can go in hard if they choose, my proposed offer for NY was Volpe/Dominguez plus 4 or 5 high-ceiling pitchers. So much of this depends on how WAS rates these top prospects, which guy they will prefer to head the package and hopefully be the new face of their franchise.

But my main point is that nighthob's original offer is way way low, Mayer has to be in there to get them in the conversation.

They can (and should) ask for that, but that doesn't mean they will get it. Fangraphs mentioned Chris Sale as a rough parallel, who had 3 years/39 million left on his deal. He yielded the Sox' 1, 5, and 7 prospects, and another outside the top 20, according to Sox Prospects. Granted, the Sox had a very deep system and the 5 guy (Kopech) was a consensus top 30 MLB prospect. Still, I don't see them getting all 3 of Mayer/Casas/Bello, or something similar form another team.

If Bello/Casas + is the best offer, the Nats aren't going to reject it for a lesser package just because it includes the top ranked prospect form a lesser system.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It is kind of both, Chaim has worked hard to build up the farm the last few years and moving what it would take to get Soto I think would not leave them in a great position to surround him with a winning team. I also think that even if Chaim does decide to go all out for Soto, other teams will offer sexier, more tempting packages. This is one WAS will have to sell to whatever fan base they have left, so for instance Volpe and Mayer may be similar level prospects but Volpe being a couple years closer to MLB helps in this calculus I think. I am just a bozo on his couch, though, so we'll see.

(If I were Cashman, my priority right now would be Luis Castillo first and foremost, maybe Sean Murphy also, and hope that Soto is not moved until the offseason.)

Think it would be pretty tough to get sexier prospect packages than Mayer/Casas/Bello though. I do agree that Chaim is not likely to meet that price but I’m still skeptical it would take all 3 to be included (of a comparable package from other teams). That would be like asking for Volpe, Peraza, and Jasson from the Yanks. Yankees would likewise balk at that price as well.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Think it would be pretty tough to get sexier prospect packages than Mayer/Casas/Bello though. I do agree that Chaim is not likely to meet that price but I’m still skeptical it would take all 3 to be included (of a comparable package from other teams). That would be like asking for Volpe, Peraza, and Jasson from the Yanks. Yankees would likewise balk at that price as well.

The difference is how WAS ranks these prospects and top 100 lists are really useless for this exercise. They speak nothing of the readiness to contribute to the major league roster, team fit, or how likely a prospect is to stay at that ranking. A player 1 year from contributing but ranked 15th might be worth a lot more than a single A 18 year old ranked 7th to a lot of teams. So yea, you're talking about big name prospects, but I'm guessing the Nationals aren't interested in players fresh to arrive at the top of these lists who are a couple years from contributing to their roster. Lot of assumptions on my part but it just feels logical that if you're getting rid of a top 5 marketable player in the league, you name your price and laugh when the headliner of the deal is a team's second best prospect. They are going to fleece a team if he gets dealt in the next two weeks.

and I completely agree with Jon. The Yankees don't need Soto as much as they need Castillo. They have to prioritize him and if they do that, I find it hard to believe we'll have the appetite to move on Soto as well.

 

[jon abbey]

That would be like asking for Volpe, Peraza, and Jasson from the Yanks. Yankees would likewise balk at that price as well.

Not the price, just that they can't trade both Volpe and Peraza because one needs to play SS for them in the near future. I would offer Volpe, Dominguez and pick 4 of Schmidt, Waldichuk, Wesneski, Medina, Will Warren, TJ Sikkema, Yoendrys Gomez, whoever else. One-stop rotation shopping...

Also I don't think this would be the high bid either, Preller does not get outbid usually and he has a lot of chips. The Dodgers could offer five top 100 guys and not even feel it so much, and STL also seems positioned well. Those to me are the most likely three destinations if he goes this deadline, from what I know.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The Nats can wait until someone meets their price. There’s no real urgency to move him (if they even do), is there? Sure, a deal in the off-season would only impact two seasons rather than three but that potentially opens up the bidders to more teams. They aren’t going to take the best they can get in the next few weeks just to rush it, IMO.

 

[jon abbey]

The difference is how WAS ranks these prospects and top 100 lists are really useless for this exercise.

Also baseballtradevalues is not so helpful for a deal like this, they are not great at updating the often rapidly changing value of minor leaguers, and even there they rely on prospect lists which are not always how teams actually value guys, as Crow said.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Also baseballtradevalues is not so helpful for a deal like this, they are not great at updating the often rapidly changing value of minor leaguers, and even there they rely on prospect lists which are not always how teams actually value guys, as Crow said.

In my edition of radio station trades, there's a universe where Cashman can replenish some of the farm by trading Gleyber during the offseason, moving IKF or DJL to 2B, and plugging the leftover SS prospect right in. Gleyber is still very valuable after the year he's having.

 

[BigSoxFan]

The difference is how WAS ranks these prospects and top 100 lists are really useless for this exercise. They speak nothing of the readiness to contribute to the major league roster, team fit, or how likely a prospect is to stay at that ranking. A player 1 year from contributing but ranked 15th might be worth a lot more than a single A 18 year old ranked 7th to a lot of teams. So yea, you're talking about big name prospects, but I'm guessing the Nationals aren't interested in players fresh to arrive at the top of these lists who are a couple years from contributing to their roster. Lot of assumptions on my part but it just feels logical that if you're getting rid of a top 5 marketable player in the league, you name your price and laugh when the headliner of the deal is a team's second best prospect. They are going to fleece a team if he gets dealt in the next two weeks.

and I completely agree with Jon. The Yankees don't need Soto as much as they need Castillo. They have to prioritize him and if they do that, I find it hard to believe we'll have the appetite to move on Soto as well.

Yes, nobody knows their internal valuations but I think they are probably directionally correct. The Nationals basically have holes everywhere so fit is probably less of an issue here. If they are prioritizing guys who are either there or soon to arrive, then the Sox have that in Casas/Bello.

The Yankees certainly don’t need Soto but I think he does make sense for a team that is clearly built to win now. Truthfully, I don’t see them as really needing Castillo either, especially if German pitches well in Severino’s absence. Either guy would be a luxury item, IMO.

I will be fascinated by this situation. I don’t expect him to be moved until this offseason though. If he does get mover this season, my uneducated guess would be Dodgers or Cardinals.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Yes, nobody knows their internal valuations but I think they are probably directionally correct. The Nationals basically have holes everywhere so fit is probably less of an issue here. If they are prioritizing guys who are either there or soon to arrive, then the Sox have that in Casas/Bello.

The Yankees certainly don’t need Soto but I think he does make sense for a team that is clearly built to win now. Truthfully, I don’t see them as really needing Castillo either, especially if German pitches well in Severino’s absence. Either guy would be a luxury item, IMO.

I will be fascinated by this situation. I don’t expect him to be moved until this offseason though. If he does get mover this season, my uneducated guess would be Dodgers or Cardinals.

I don't think the Yankees are built to win now. I think the Yankees are having a great year and can win now, but they are setup quite well moving forward....unless of course we dump the farm.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I don't think the Yankees are built to win now. I think the Yankees are having a great year and can win now, but they are setup quite well moving forward....unless of course we dump the farm.

Sorry, I meant they are in great position to win now, not that they’ve been constructed for short-term success. I also wonder if all of the close calls the past 5 years may influence their approach. Probably not but you never know.

 

[sean1562]

I don't really know much about the Dodgers prospects, other than what I am just reading now on MLB/Fangraphs, but would a package of Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Gavin Lux, and some lower level lottery tickets beat Casas/Meyer/Bello/Bleis?

 

[chawson]

Which would further increase the value of that aforementioned deal. I think all of these teams being mentioned have the juice to make the deal and the Sox clearly have the prospects to get it done. The only real disadvantage is that their guys don’t have MLB experience outside of a couple ineffective Bello starts. But Casas is almost there. Bello should be ready soon to stick. And then you have potential fast risers in Mayer, Rafaela, etc.

Right right, Bleis has some helium and would probably weigh more heavily in a trade than it seems listed as the Sox #16 (per MLB) prospect.

The Yankees are in an interesting position. A Soto deal for them likely closes the door on Judge. Soto’s obviously a better bet over the next 10 years, but likely no other contender for him stands to let a superstar walk as part of the cost for acquiring Soto. (The Sox payroll can certainly absorb mega-deals for Soto and Devers). At what point is it better to sign Judge for 9/$250m and keep the prospects than give them up, let Judge walk and sign Soto for $500m?

 

[bosox188]

I don't really know much about the Dodgers prospects, other than what I am just reading now on MLB/Fangraphs, but would a package of Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Gavin Lux, and some lower level lottery tickets beat Casas/Meyer/Bello/Bleis?

I would think Miguel Vargas has to be in that package.

 

[jon abbey]

Right right, Bleis has some helium and would probably weigh more heavily in a trade than it seems listed as the Sox #16 (per MLB) prospect.

The Yankees are in an interesting position. A Soto deal for them likely closes the door on Judge. Soto’s obviously a better bet over the next 10 years, but likely no other contender for him stands to let a superstar walk as part of the cost for acquiring Soto. (The Sox payroll can certainly absorb mega-deals for Soto and Devers). At what point is it better to sign Judge for 9/$250m and keep the prospects than give them up, let Judge walk and sign Soto for $500m?

I think a Soto play by NY from NY’s side would be in addition to Judge, not one or the other. In that situation maybe they just go full Golden State and pay what they need to keep the guys they want and put together what I guess would be the best OF of all time (?) in Soto/Judge/Stanton.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I think a Soto play by NY from NY’s side would be in addition to Judge, not one or the other. In that situation maybe they just go full Golden State and pay what they need to keep the guys they want and put together what I guess would be the best OF of all time (?) in Soto/Judge/Stanton.

Carpenter/Judge/Stanton is better

 

[chawson]

I think a Soto play by NY from NY’s side would be in addition to Judge, not one or the other. In that situation maybe they just go full Golden State and pay what they need to keep the guys they want and put together what I guess would be the best OF of all time (?) in Soto/Judge/Stanton.

That would be quite the play. I’m unable to separate my distaste for that situation from any level-headed assessment, but my sense is that Soto may have the kind of ego that makes him want to he “the guy” on a team, not just one their several stars. Pairing him with Devers, what I hope is Bloom’s play, contradicts that a bit.

I’m probably hanging on a little hard to the Verducci story about him role-playing as Ortiz vs. the Yankees as a kid. If he’s a Giant, fine, but it will be a crushing blow indeed if he ends up a Yankee after that nugget, the weird Celtics’ jersey grabs, Papi’s lobbying efforts, etc.

 

[nighthob]

Have you not been reading about this? WAS is asking for team's top 4 prospects plus more. Again, all of STL, SD and LAD can go in hard if they choose, my proposed offer for NY was Volpe/Dominguez plus 4 or 5 high-ceiling pitchers. So much of this depends on how WAS rates these top prospects, which guy they will prefer to head the package and hopefully be the new face of their franchise.

I have a hard time seeing San Diego making those economics work. I’ll believe that Cashman makes a deal like that when one actually happens. I won’t be holding my breath. The Dodgers and Rays I covered, they’re the main competition that I see. St. Louis, maybe, but there’s a lot A Ball talent on that “Top 4” list. Boston has two AAA guys in the top 50 that are at the top of their prospects list. And better still it doesn’t include a C which everyone else’s list does (because the Nats already have Ruiz).

 

[nighthob]

From the sound of it from the SoxProspect guys, the prospect lists haven’t caught up to Bleis. He’s a lot better than an Engel Beltre-style flyer.

He’s really good. He’s going to be pushing top 100 lists when the year is done. Add in guys like Jordan and Binelas and there’s more than enough high upside talent to build a deal around Bello, Bleis, and Casas (and as an added benefit for the Nats, once Casas is ready they can move Bell for prospects too).

 

[jon abbey]

Bell is a FA after the season.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

I have a hard time seeing San Diego making those economics work. I’ll believe that Cashman makes a deal like that when one actually happens. I won’t be holding my breath. The Dodgers and Rays I covered, they’re the main competition that I see. St. Louis, maybe, but there’s a lot A Ball talent on that “Top 4” list. Boston has two AAA guys in the top 50 that are at the top of their prospects list. And better still it doesn’t include a C which everyone else’s list does (because the Nats already have Ruiz).

If you don't believe Cashman will trade prospects, you must not have paid attention last offseason. Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran, and Kevin Alcantara were all high quality assets that are looking even better a year later, and Otto, Hauver, and Vizcaino also went out. Additionally, the Red Sox are hardly the only team that can offer premium, close to MLB talent. A few quick examples:

Cardinals: Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Matt Liberatore are all at AA or the MLB already,.

Mets: Francisco Alvarez, Bret Baty, Alex Ramirez, Mark Vientos is right up there with any Top 4 the Sox could offer, and they've got a lot of interesting little lottery tickets of their own. Nationals probably don't want to move Soto within their division, but the Mets' talent and deep pockets would force the Sox (and other teams) to include "the whole farm".

Dodgers: Even without including Cartaya, the Dodgers can include Miller, Busch, Vargas, Pepiot, Pages, and Knack all from AA or higher.

The idea the Red Sox could get Soto for some kind of bargain, or that other teams can't match the Sox's best offer, is just not realistic.

 

[jon abbey]

Very good post, @Scoops Bolling, but I think it’s true that we don’t know if Cashman will make a deal with his top prospects. The guys you list (some top 100 guys in there) were all blocked to some extent by others who Cashman likes better. Not every GM can pull the trigger on their version of Moncada/Kopech for Sale, and I don’t think we’ve seen Cashman do that yet, so it is fair to question.

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/ByMattWeyrich/status/1549529070723104769

 

[Green (Tongued) Monster]

If you don't believe Cashman will trade prospects, you must not have paid attention last offseason. Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran, and Kevin Alcantara were all high quality assets that are looking even better a year later, and Otto, Hauver, and Vizcaino also went out. Additionally, the Red Sox are hardly the only team that can offer premium, close to MLB talent. A few quick examples:

Cardinals: Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Matt Liberatore are all at AA or the MLB already,.

Mets: Francisco Alvarez, Bret Baty, Alex Ramirez, Mark Vientos is right up there with any Top 4 the Sox could offer, and they've got a lot of interesting little lottery tickets of their own. Nationals probably don't want to move Soto within their division, but the Mets' talent and deep pockets would force the Sox (and other teams) to include "the whole farm".

Dodgers: Even without including Cartaya, the Dodgers can include Miller, Busch, Vargas, Pepiot, Pages, and Knack all from AA or higher.

The idea the Red Sox could get Soto for some kind of bargain, or that other teams can't match the Sox's best offer, is just not realistic.

Cardinals also have Nolan Gorman.

 

[jose melendez]

Being a Nationals fan must be a tough beat. They did win that title which makes a lot of it easier; but you look at all that talent they've had, a lot of it homegrown (Harper, Soto, Turner, Rendon, Strasburg, Scherzer) and the only one it looks like atm they will have retained for the long haul is Strasburg, who they never should have paid.

Married to a Nats fan, son-in-law of Nats season ticket holder here. They're also easily my #2 team.

It was incredibly frustrating to be a Nats fan, but 2019 sort of takes it all away. They had an eight-or-so year run of being a really competitive, highly-entertaining team, and in culminated in a championship. People are bummed that they suck now, but the story very much had a happy ending.

As for the people they let walk, I don't think there's that much anger. Harper obviously worked out fine--championship the next year. Rendon is always hurt. People love Scherzer, but he's getting old. Turner hurt quite a bit, but it mostly seemed like he just wanted to leave. Soto will be a killer, though. To lose a guy that good and that young who is pretty much the only reason to go see a lousy team is tough. There is a real case that, as bare as the cupboard is, they need to move him for a king's ransom, but it will be bad here when he leaves. I'd hold him for another year and offer, pretty much whatever he wants on a 8-10 year basis to keep him.

 

[sean1562]

Married to a Nats fan, son-in-law of Nats season ticket holder here. They're also easily my #2 team.

It was incredibly frustrating to be a Nats fan, but 2019 sort of takes it all away. They had an eight-or-so year run of being a really competitive, highly-entertaining team, and in culminated in a championship. People are bummed that they suck now, but the story very much had a happy ending.

As for the people they let walk, I don't think there's that much anger. Harper obviously worked out fine--championship the next year. Rendon is always hurt. People love Scherzer, but he's getting old. Turner hurt quite a bit, but it mostly seemed like he just wanted to leave. Soto will be a killer, though. To lose a guy that good and that young who is pretty much the only reason to go see a lousy team is tough. There is a real case that, as bare as the cupboard is, they need to move him for a king's ransom, but it will be bad here when he leaves. I'd hold him for another year and offer, pretty much whatever he wants on a 8-10 year basis to keep him.

They were really hoping Victor Robles was going to be better than he is. The guy was a consensus top 10 in MLB prospect and had a 4.4 bWAR season as a 22 year old in 2019. The hype for him was crazy when he was a prospect, lots of Andrew McCutchen comparisons. Unfortunately for the Nats, Robles did not turn into the next McCutchen after that 2019 season.

edit: Now that I think about it, the Nats have been kind of bad at developing prospects of late. Carter Kieboom was another top 10 guy who was going to be the next Rendon.

 

[jose melendez]

They were really hoping Victor Robles was going to be better than he is. The guy was a consensus top 10 in MLB prospect and had a 4.4 bWAR season as a 22 year old in 2019. The hype for him was crazy when he was a prospect, lots of Andrew McCutchen comparisons. Unfortunately for the Nats, Robles did not turn into the next McCutchen after that 2019 season.

edit: Now that I think about it, the Nats have been kind of bad at developing prospects of late. Carter Kieboom was another top 10 guy who was going to be the next Rendon.

I don't know if it's bad development, but they certainly haven't had a lot of highly touted prospects who failed to pan out.