Jayson Tatum Needs His Own Thread

[lovegtm]

I'm worried about Tatum (short/mid-term, not long-term). The early season issues finishing seem to have freaked him out, and now he's back to jacking early-clock midrangers. He's also shooting fewer step-back 3s, which are his only real positive shot. Even worse, he's lost that rhythm he got on Team USA of making quick pass/shoot/drive decisions, and is pointlessly dribbling a lot.

I don't think with his current body/finishing ability he can be an efficient primary creation. Obviously we already know what he can do as a secondary player, but he needs to grow beyond that.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but playing through it seems to be causing some regression--speaking only about approach, not results.

 

[benhogan]

I'm worried about Tatum (short/mid-term, not long-term). The early season issues finishing seem to have freaked him out, and now he's back to jacking early-clock midrangers. He's also shooting fewer step-back 3s, which are his only real positive shot. Even worse, he's lost that rhythm he got on Team USA of making quick pass/shoot/drive decisions, and is pointlessly dribbling a lot.

I don't think with his current body/finishing ability he can be an efficient primary creation. Obviously we already know what he can do as a secondary player, but he needs to grow beyond that.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but playing through it seems to be causing some regression--speaking only about approach, not results.

shooting 1-18 would even freak Jordan out.

It seemed like JT took a bunch of bad long 2s last night, but I'd only get concerned if he started taking more long 2s over the next month and abandoned the 3PA/rim run Harden approach. It felt like he was trying to hit a mid-range 2 last night, to regain his shooting confidence, and I wouldn't expect him to revert to last seasons Mamba Jr. ball for long.

He'll have growing pains being the primary creator and agree that he flourishes being the secondary player. His age/body/strength doesn't let him finish through contact or draw fouls. JT, more than most, seems to be frustrated by the refs for the lack of calls on his drives at the rim.

In addition to that, JT really benefits from JB/GH/Kemba's rim runs and kick-outs to him for a 3 or a drive against a scrambling D. Losing Hayward will negatively impact Tatum probably more than the others. I think Brad realizes this and, as strange as this sounds, we may see 10-15mpg of Javonte Green during Hayward's absence. Green attacks the rim on breaks or in the halfcourt with abandon, and he's pretty decent at it. This may help Tatum's efficiency when he's not on the floor with Kemba/Brown.

 

[lexrageorge]

Shot selection aside, Tatum was still engaged defensively and pulled down 8 boards. And spent much less time barking at the refs. And only Brown had more free throw attempts. Glass half full and all that....

 

[PedrosRedGlove]

Just for posterity, 9 games in, the Jays have almost identical slash lines:

Jayson: 19.4pts 7.7reb 2.3ast (34.4mpg)
Jaylen: 19.8pts 7.2reb 2.2ast (31.3mpg)

Jayson has the edge in blocks and steals.

 

[NomarsFool]

I feel like Tatum hasn't been getting great separation on his drives to the basket. So, it seems like the defender is all over him as he tries to finish, resulting in poor % at the rim, and a lot of frustration for Tatum as he feels like he's getting fouled. Just to contrast with Brown, it seems like Brown is often well past his defender and therefore has a bit of an easier shot at the rim.

 

[DJnVa]

Tatum was apparently in the gym last night after the game. He posted something online saying that you have to laugh at yourself sometimes and get back to work.

 

[RetractableRoof]

Just for posterity, 9 games in, the Jays have almost identical slash lines:

Jayson: 19.4pts 7.7reb 2.3ast (34.4mpg)
Jaylen: 19.8pts 7.2reb 2.2ast (31.3mpg)

Jayson has the edge in blocks and steals.

What are the efficiency numbers though?

 

[Cellar-Door]

What are the efficiency numbers though?

Added Hayward for fun, Tatum has definitely been the worst of the 3 wing/swings, surprisingly, because his offense has been really bad, his defense has been excellent.

PPG	RPG	APG	eFG%	TS%	Ftr	TRB%	AST%	TOV%	Ortg	DRtg	WS/48	BPM
Brown	19.8	7.2	2.2	0.572	0.616	0.373	11.3	11.2	6.8	120	103	0.212	2
Tatum	19.4	7.7	2.3	0.463	0.494	0.183	11	10.5	8.8	99	101	0.084	-0.6
Hayward	18.9	7.1	4.1	0.614	0.638	0.173	11.3	21.8	11.2	120	104	0.212	4.3

 

[lovegtm]

Added Hayward for fun, Tatum has definitely been the worst of the 3 wing/swings, surprisingly, because his offense has been really bad, his defense has been excellent.

PPG	RPG	APG	eFG%	TS%	Ftr	TRB%	AST%	TOV%	Ortg	DRtg	WS/48	BPM
Brown	19.8	7.2	2.2	0.572	0.616	0.373	11.3	11.2	6.8	120	103	0.212	2
Tatum	19.4	7.7	2.3	0.463	0.494	0.183	11	10.5	8.8	99	101	0.084	-0.6
Hayward	18.9	7.1	4.1	0.614	0.638	0.173	11.3	21.8	11.2	120	104	0.212	4.3

That is the rare case of a chart that perfectly matches the eye test in nearly every aspect.

 

[DJnVa]

And just like that we're down to just a single 20 ppg scorer!!!!!!

 

[Cesar Crespo]

shooting 1-18 would even freak Jordan out.

It seemed like JT took a bunch of bad long 2s last night, but I'd only get concerned if he started taking more long 2s over the next month and abandoned the 3PA/rim run Harden approach. It felt like he was trying to hit a mid-range 2 last night, to regain his shooting confidence, and I wouldn't expect him to revert to last seasons Mamba Jr. ball for long.

He'll have growing pains being the primary creator and agree that he flourishes being the secondary player. His age/body/strength doesn't let him finish through contact or draw fouls. JT, more than most, seems to be frustrated by the refs for the lack of calls on his drives at the rim.

In addition to that, JT really benefits from JB/GH/Kemba's rim runs and kick-outs to him for a 3 or a drive against a scrambling D. Losing Hayward will negatively impact Tatum probably more than the others. I think Brad realizes this and, as strange as this sounds, we may see 10-15mpg of Javonte Green during Hayward's absence. Green attacks the rim on breaks or in the halfcourt with abandon, and he's pretty decent at it. This may help Tatum's efficiency when he's not on the floor with Kemba/Brown.

Jordan's worst shooting performance was a 3/17 dud against Detroit back in 1986. It happens.

 

[DJnVa]

Tatum's night was the 3rd worst in NBA history for number of misses with only 1 make.

He still had 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and was +16

 

[benhogan]

Tatum's night was the 3rd worst in NBA history for number of misses with only 1 make.

He still had 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and was +16

Wow, who had that and Gordon hitting the most 2s at 100% since Wilt. Need to check the Bold Prediction thread

Tatum putting up shots post-game and laughing at himself shows fantastic self-awareness and maturity.

A completely different team vibe from last season

 

[TripleOT]

Tatum is 23-50 at the rim, 46%, and 56% of his makes were assisted. Last season, he was 67% at the rim with 57% assisted. He's had 80 drives to the hoop this season already. They guy just isn't finishing.

 

[benhogan]

Tatum is 23-50 at the rim, 46%, and 56% of his makes were assisted. Last season, he was 67% at the rim with 57% assisted. He's had 80 drives to the hoop this season already. They guy just isn't finishing.

yea he's a 21yr old, string bean, being asked to stop shooting long 2's for the first time in his life.

Adjustment and maturity will solve those SSS statistics

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Green attacks the rim on breaks or in the halfcourt with abandon

If JT had Javonte's first step quickness and decisiveness this thread wouldn't be nearly as filled with hand wringing. Completely agree with the above poster pointing out Tatum's lack of separation on drives making the job of finishing much harder than it should be. Feels like he's always on the verge of getting his shot erased at the rim.

 

[nighthob]

Green has a lot more mass given that he weighs nearly as much while being a few inches smaller.

 

[Jimbodandy]

yea he's a 21yr old, string bean, being asked to stop shooting long 2's for the first time in his life.

Adjustment and maturity will solve those SSS statistics

This.

It's not unfair to point out that Tatum shit the bed offensively last night and hasn't been a stud overall. But they have asked him to completely change how he plays. There will be a learning curve. He'll be fine.

Last night's shot selection regression was desperation at his mindblowingly bad shooting. He's a young guy. Yes, we should be encouraged at how he has handled it since, the extra shooting and such. These things will happen. He'll have a few more games where shit is going south and he jacks 2018 MaMo 2s.

He's a stud. Don't worry about him.

 

[benhogan]

I hope this quiets down the Jaylen > Tatum murmurs emanating from game threads

well this didn't age well

 

[nighthob]

He's a stud. Don't worry about him.

He’s been a legitimate defensive monster this year. Being able to field deathtime lineups with two guys like that on the floor has been a huge advantage for Boston this year. Even if he never becomes more than a secondary scorer, with that defense he’s a top 10-15 guy.

 

[Jimbodandy]

He’s been a legitimate defensive monster this year. Being able to field deathtime lineups with two guys like that on the floor has been a huge advantage for Boston this year. Even if he never becomes more than a secondary scorer, with that defense he’s a top 10-15 guy.

Agreed. Even in a shit game where he is a negative offensive player, he's a true positive on defense both on and off ball. He's like a smarter, taller, longer Ojeleye.

 

[TripleOT]

yea he's a 21yr old, string bean, being asked to stop shooting long 2's for the first time in his life.

Adjustment and maturity will solve those SSS statistics

He was string bean-ier his first two seasons and didn't have this problem. I think it's just an anomaly. He's not going to go 1-7 right at the rim too often. The adjustment would be to make his finishes less of a long jump. He picks the ball up way out on the floor on most of his forays to the rim. The other adjustment he could make would be to try to dunk the ball more. He will get more calls if he tries to tomahawk it more.

 

[amarshal2]

I hope he keeps pushing himself at the rim through his struggles. He does need to learn to pass or dribble out when it’s just not there, but he needs to keep trying to get to a good spot and to finish for his development. He easily could turn himself into his version of Klay Thompson but there’s no better time to push for more.

And even with his efficiency issues inside the arc, his defense and three point shooting have him leading the nba in +\-

View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1194500285282033664

 

[lovegtm]

He’s been a legitimate defensive monster this year. Being able to field deathtime lineups with two guys like that on the floor has been a huge advantage for Boston this year. Even if he never becomes more than a secondary scorer, with that defense he’s a top 10-15 guy.

Yeah, I've been a bit down on him lately, but I'm fine with him exploring the studio space a bit offensively, since the upside if he adds ANYTHING to 3+D+attack closeouts is so high.

The main thing you're betting on with Tatum is that he's skilled and an extremely hard worker. That combination is really conducive to making improvements over the years.

 

[benhogan]

Yeah, I've been a bit down on him lately, but I'm fine with him exploring the studio space a bit offensively, since the upside if he adds ANYTHING to 3+D+attack closeouts is so high.

The main thing you're betting on with Tatum is that he's skilled and an extremely hard worker. That combination is really conducive to making improvements over the years.

He definitely has the skill/touch and work ethic. Not settling for mid-range 2's is a new concept for him. He knows in order to be "great", he needs to adapt to the modern game.

Since Tatum isn't super quick (or have the Harden quick stop move), he needs to get bigger/stronger. This will help him play through contact going to the rim and draw a couple of extra fouls a game. At this point, defenders can use their bodies to move Tatum around when he attempts to go to the rim. He feels like he's getting fouled because he is losing his balance when going to the hoop, but he isn't getting fouled. Unlike Jaylen or Hayward or Kemba, all of whom have the strength or quickness/hesitation move to get to the hoop or draw a foul if they get their defender on their hip.

JT has been building up strength every offseason, it will come with age. He's a very good player now. Once he gets stronger, can draw more fouls, his plus FT shooting will turn him into a top 10 player in 2-3yrs IMHO

In the meantime (while he waits to age, get stronger), I bet he'll do more Euro steps and start going off the wrong foot when going to the rim. That should trick some defenders and get a few more FTs.

The kid is smart, works hard, has great private and Celtic coaching around him, the "at the rim" efficiency will come with time.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Among many great points, the one about not getting calls is stellar. Sure, like Kyrie, he doesn't get some calls that he should get, because he's trying to avoid contact, rather than initiate it. But as you note, he's generally not getting fouled actually when he goes into a wall of verticality all off balance and bounces off like a balsa wood plane.

You don't need explosiveness to use your body to gain an advantage, as Hayward, Pierce, et al. have shown. Brains and a bit of girth can get you there.

 

[NomarsFool]

One thing I noticed with JB this season is how much he is changing speeds on his drives. Maybe he did it before and I didn't notice it, but it seems very apparent this season. I think that changing gears can be very helpful and something that JT will develop with time.

 

[bakahump]

JB struggled in year 3. Now JT is struggling (EARLY) in year three.

I know there is alot to both guys year 3s but Is it always linear? Year 2 better then Year 1, Year 3 better then year 2? Or is there a precedent for year 3 struggles?

Maybe as a 3 year guy they get handed more that they are not quite ready for?? Especially a guy who is still only 21.

Anyways I am cool with JT. We thought JB was "done developing" and stagnant as sort of a "mini bust". But look at his development this year. Both work hard, have talent and have physical tools. I think JT will be fine.

 

[chilidawg]

JB struggled in year 3. Now JT is struggling (EARLY) in year three.

I know there is alot to both guys year 3s but Is it always linear? Year 2 better then Year 1, Year 3 better then year 2? Or is there a precedent for year 3 struggles?

Maybe as a 3 year guy they get handed more that they are not quite ready for?? Especially a guy who is still only 21.

Anyways I am cool with JT. We thought JB was "done developing" and stagnant as sort of a "mini bust". But look at his development this year. Both work hard, have talent and have physical tools. I think JT will be fine.

I don't think "we" thought he was done developing. I sure didn't. Maybe speaking for youself is a good idea.

 

[chilidawg]

Celtics Blog has a nice article up on how Tatum and Hayward look different going into the paint. Boy Tatum's shooting numbers are bad so far.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/11/13/20959706/what-jayson-tatum-can-learn-from-gordon-hayward-boston-celtics

 

[DJnVa]

View: https://twitter.com/adamhimmelsbach/status/1195772933836177409?s=21

 

[jmm57]

At rookie year Marcus Smart level TS% too !

 

[bankshot1]

I am endlessly amazed and confused that a guy who so smoothly can get to the hole, can't kill the fucking bunnies.

 

[chilidawg]

HIs rebounding and assists are about the same as last year, steals are up, blocks and turnovers down. His shooting is really bad, especially at the rim. Yet his +/- numbers are the best on the team by a significant amount, leading the league in total +/-. What else is he doing so well to obviously be helping the team? And don't tell me about his shot selection.

 

[slamminsammya]

I'd just like to point out raw +/- is like the RBIs of basketball. Especially this early in the season it doesn't say a lot.

 

[chilidawg]

I'd just like to point out raw +/- is like the RBIs of basketball. Especially this early in the season it doesn't say a lot.

Really? Wouldn't points scored be more like RBI's.

+/- is at very least a measure of how well the team has done when you're on the floor. Context matters of course, as with any stat, but when one guy is much better at it than anyone else on your team, it ought to tell you something. When that player has a number of other stats that suggest he's not playing that well, at very least it suggests you ought to take a deeper look. And yes it's only 11 games, but these pages are full of statistical observations based on as little or less.

 

[nighthob]

I'd just like to point out raw +/- is like the RBIs of basketball. Especially this early in the season it doesn't say a lot.

Raw +/– lacks predictability, but it’s hardly the RBIs of basketball. In Tatum’s case it’s a function of his turning into a defensive monster this year. And having Tatum and Smart on the floor for deathtime has been a huge advantage for the Celtics so far.

 

[NomarsFool]

It's amazing to me how much he continues to struggle near the rim. I figured it was just a streak of bad luck, but it seems to be continuing. I think he'll get there - no question - but it's surprising.

 

[benhogan]

Raw +/– lacks predictability, but it’s hardly the RBIs of basketball. In Tatum’s case it’s a function of his turning into a defensive monster this year. And having Tatum and Smart on the floor for deathtime has been a huge advantage for the Celtics so far.

SSS aside, but Tatum has played very well with Theis

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612738&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=1

 

[InstaFace]

I am endlessly amazed and confused that a guy who so smoothly can get to the hole, can't kill the fucking bunnies.

Let's revisit this after another nearly-full-season of mean reversion and have a good laugh.

 

[benhogan]

Let's revisit this after another nearly-full-season of mean reversion and have a good laugh.

Yep.

Any kind of negative Tatum discussion is going to age poorly.

It's mostly game thread frustration, which is understandable, but its nuts to have any concern about Tatum's development.

 

[bankshot1]

Let's revisit this after another nearly-full-season of mean reversion and have a good laugh.

I assume its mostly in his head and will pass. And to be clear I'm a Tatum fan, but his getting stripped on drives to the hoop last year,(which I thought would improve with some gym time and technique) and his poor % on finishing his drives seems a little perplexing for so accomplished and skilled offensive player.

 

[TripleOT]

BenHogan upthread mentioned that Tatum has a stringbean built. I was at the game Wednesday and happened to be eight feet away from him for the national anthem. He's built like a skinny, chestless WNBA player. When he fills out, he's going to be so much more of a beast.

He was over 60% at the rim his first two seasons. This year's tin struggles hopefully is an anomaly.

BTW, I was on the floor for with a youth group for that anthem. The kids stand in front of the players for both teams as the anthem is played. The Celtics players were very accommodating of the kids, with Jaylen Brown's long arms around four of the boys in front of him during the anthem.

 

[amarshal2]

He’s missing because he’s going too fast and not in control, or he’s contorting himself to avoid contact, or he’s unable to play through light contact. It’s not a fluke, it’s a product of his current ability in those situations. I hope they keep coaching him and I hope he keeps trying to get to the rim and not settle for jumpers. He’ll figure it out. The only big risk is it gets in his head and affects his shooting or decision making.

 

[lovegtm]

Yep.

Any kind of negative Tatum discussion is going to age poorly.

It's mostly game thread frustration, which is understandable, but its nuts to have any concern about Tatum's development.

I think he’ll be fine with time, but there are legit concerns about his touch imo.

 

[benhogan]

He’s missing because he’s going too fast and not in control, or he’s contorting himself to avoid contact, or he’s unable to play through light contact. It’s not a fluke, it’s a product of his current ability in those situations. I hope they keep coaching him and I hope he keeps trying to get to the rim and not settle for jumpers. He’ll figure it out. The only big risk is it gets in his head and affects his shooting or decision making.

All of the above plus Hanlan/Celtics coaching staff are definitely showing him the analytics. They all point to him having to go to the rim or shoot more 3s.

(SSS alert) He is taking 5.7 extra FGA/gm compared to last season. 2.4 more 3s and 3 more FGA from less than 10ft. His 3pt% is fine. BUT his FG% on shots less then 10ft has gone from 62% his rookie season, 58.2% last season to 42.5% this year. A bad trend but I believe he is taking more of those attempts in the halfcourt offense, where defenses have set up their wall. His clearest path to success, right now, would be to get the whistle at the hoop, but that's not happening so that also has him flustered. It seems like he had a friendlier whistle when he was a rookie, so I get his arm waving with the refs.

2017-18 10.4 FGA & 3.2 FTA
2018-19 13.1 FGA & 2.9 FTA
2019-20 18.8 FGA & 3.7 FTA

In the past he has been applauded for taking pull up 20 footers, ala Kobe, now that shot is met with huge skepticism. Adjustment, in-game experience & JT filling out will just take time.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

His usage rate has gone from 19.5% as a rookie, to 22.1% last year, to 27.0% this year. That's a preety significant increase, and for any player would be expected to come at some cost in efficiency. Especially in the early going. It is way too soon to be worried.

Edit: For comparison, Jaylen's usage has gone from 18.1% to 21.4% to 22.1% to (thus far this year) 23.9%.

 

[chilidawg]

His usage rate has gone from 19.5% as a rookie, to 22.1% last year, to 27.0% this year. That's a preety significant increase, and for any player would be expected to come at some cost in efficiency. Especially in the early going. It is way too soon to be worried.

Edit: For comparison, Jaylen's usage has gone from 18.1% to 21.4% to 22.1% to (thus far this year) 23.9%.

This is what my eye is seeing also. Jaylen seems better at letting the offense come to him, whereas Tatum seems to be determined to create it, which leads to some awkward forced shots. I guess maybe you need someone to do that, but I think he'd be better served to focus more on getting shots within the flow of the offense and less on iso creations.

 

[TripleOT]

Tatum is taking almost 19 shots a game, and 10 drives/pg. Besides making more shots at the rim, he needs to draw whistles.

Tatum 10.0 drives/game. 36%. 0.7FTs, 5.6 ppg on drives
Brown 11.1 drives/game. 52%. 1.8 FTs, 7.4 ppg on drives
Hayward 11.5 drives/game. 63%. 1.0FTs, 7.5 ppg on drives (Please come back soon)
Kemba 11.5 drives/game. 41%. 2.47FTs, 6.5 ppg on drives

 

[lovegtm]

Tatum is taking almost 19 shots a game, and 10 drives/pg. Besides making more shots at the rim, he needs to draw whistles.

Tatum 10.0 drives/game. 36%. 0.7FTs, 5.6 ppg on drives
Brown 11.1 drives/game. 52%. 1.8 FTs, 7.4 ppg on drives
Hayward 11.5 drives/game. 63%. 1.0FTs, 7.5 ppg on drives (Please come back soon)
Kemba 11.5 drives/game. 41%. 2.47FTs, 6.5 ppg on drives

Whistles are earned--we've seen with Kemba, Hayward, and now under-control Jaylen that officials don't really have out for Boston. Most of drawing fouls is getting your opponents out of position. Tatum (for now) is really, really bad at that.

This reminds me of how the game threads used to whine about Theis getting called for fouls. Then he learned verticality, stopped slapping down as much, and miraculously became a more playable defender.

Drawing fouls is more a skill than a reputation thing, and Tatum has a lot of improvement to make there.