Not a Jimmy versus Jaylen post, but Jimmy is having an awesome season. Best raw stats of his career, and by far the best advanced/impact stats of his career.
He’s still a monster defensive player, as well.
Jaylen Brown, Year 7
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He’s still a monster defensive player, as well.
Jaylen was a beast last night. His monster 17 point first quarter really set the tone for what turned out to be a blow out win. He was hitting from everywhere on the floor including threes, driving to the bucket, back door cuts and posting up and converting over Giannis. Tatum took over and dominated the 2nd. The two combined for 70 points. They are a lethal 1, 2 punch and when both of them are on this Celtics team is nearly unstoppable.
JB started choking the life out of the Bucks in the first quarter, and Tatum jumped in to end any life in the second. It shouldn’t have been a surprise, because the Celtics either beats the Bucks, or lose in a close game after having a big lead. In past seasons, the Bucks would catch up against the Celtics bench, but the Cs are fortified there now, with Brogdon probably equal to the fourth best Bucks player, and way better than any Bucks reserve.
Jimmy is a very good player, I don’t think there’s any question about that. He also gets pretty overrated by the media for whatever reason (I think they love the “alpha dog” attitude, they definitely love “Heat culture, and he’s had some very good playoff games. Of course, no one seems to remember the 2 fucking stink bombs he posted against the Celtics last year but whatever)
After this recent stretch run, and especially after last night, I think Jaylen should be a lock for 3rd team forward (at the worst).
Sometimes the analysis and discourse just gets too in the weeds. Jaylen’s the 2nd best player on the 2nd best team in the NBA. His counting stats are incredible and his impact on the game is felt whenever you watch the team. He seems to take his game up a notch whenever it’s truly needed and you can see him leveling up right now during the stretch run.
I know some of his advanced stats aren’t great and I think it’s an interesting data point but I don’t trust any set of stats that tell me Jaylen Brown isn’t a top 30 player. I’m sorry but that just doesn’t pass the smell test
Sometimes the analysis and discourse just gets too in the weeds. Jaylen’s the 2nd best player on the 2nd best team in the NBA. His counting stats are incredible and his impact on the game is felt whenever you watch the team. He seems to take his game up a notch whenever it’s truly needed and you can see him leveling up right now during the stretch run.
I know some of his advanced stats aren’t great and I think it’s an interesting data point but I don’t trust any set of stats that tell me Jaylen Brown isn’t a top 30 player. I’m sorry but that just doesn’t pass the smell test
He also gets overrated by the refs.
If every other statistic were equal, and Jaylen got the same % of free throw attempts as Jimmy Butler based on their field goal attempts per game, Jaylen would be averaging 32.6ppg.
That's how much Butler benefits from a favorable whistle.
Butler takes 13.9fga per game, and averages 8.6fta per game. For every field goal attempt he takes, he gets .61 free throw attempts. This number is fucking absurd. Here's why.
Jaylen takes 20.5fga per game, and averages 5.2fta per game, or for every field goal attempt, he gets .25 free throw attempts.
Giannis takes 20.4fga per game, and averages 12.2fta per game, or for every FGA, .598 free throws.
Embiid takes 20.2fga per game, and gets 11.9 fta, or .589.
Luka takes 22.1fga per game, and gets 10.7fta, or .484
Tatum takes 21.3fga per game, and gets 8.4fta, or .417
SGA takes 20.3fga and gets 10.7fta, or .527
Trae Young takes 19.3 and gets 8.6fta or .445
Jokic is at 15.0 and 6.1, or 40.6
I mean, these aren't guys I'm pulling out of the hat, these are your NBA leaders in getting to the foul line, and Butler just dwarfs them, especially other shooting guards like he is. He is 9th in the NBA in free throw attempts, and 53rd in the NBA in field goal attempts.
If someone wants to make the argument that Jimmy Butler is the best player, maybe in NBA history, at getting to the foul line, they'd have a legit argument, but I watch him play a lot, and IMO, he gets called differently. I'll never see it, Jaylen goes as hard to the hole and into the bodies of defenders, especially now, than Butler does, IMO, and never gets the calls Butler does.
And because Butler gets so many calls, his FG% and TS% are both much higher, because if you get fouled and miss the shot, it doesn't count as a FGA.
And yes, I know Butler doesn't take a lot of 3's, mainly because he sucks at it, but neither do the big guys on this list in reality and they are constantly banging away down low.
Extremely hard to argue that Butler does more that is worthy of drawing fouls than Giannis...
...but I'm sure someone will try in this thread soon!
Don't see how Jaylen doesn't make all-NBA now.
Tatum, Giannis are the only 2 forwards that have a clear case over him. Gets murky after that with Durant, Lebron, PG, and Kawhi and their games missed, Butler and his so-so counting stats, DeRozan and his bad team, etc.
Tatum, Giannis are the only 2 forwards that have a clear case over him. Gets murky after that with Durant, Lebron, PG, and Kawhi and their games missed, Butler and his so-so counting stats, DeRozan and his bad team, etc.
I was looking at the current ESPN MVP straw poll and saw that JB is tied for10th with Fox. Now, this is the very definition of statistical noise in a sense: he has one single 4th place vote for MVP, without which he wouldn't appear on the list at all. But it is at least interesting that Fox, Curry and Booker don't have any more traction with voters than he does. So, if this is indicative of the all-NBA voting, he's right there, even as a guard.
When did Durant quit?
He played in 39 of Brooklyn's 40 games until he hurt his knee and then was traded before he was fully healthy
Yeah Durant has been awesome when he's played. Only problem is that he won't hit 50 games. Jaylen should absolutely make it as a forward in the East
Oh I know. I stated above that Durant, and others, lack of games makes it difficult. I was only commenting on the quitting part. Durant may have whined his way out of Brooklyn, but most definitely did not quit. He was having his most efficient season ever
Sorry, should've been clearer - I was putting a highlighter on your comment. Durant plays his ass off. He's a weird dude, but he's never loafing on the court.
For the All-NBA discussion there is literally no way that Durant should make the team. Wasn’t healthy enough this year. Feel the same about Kawhi and LeBron. (Especially Kawhi. I don’t think you can reward a guy that treats the regular season like it’s some sort of extended training camp)
He absolutely quit on Brooklyn. He played well when he was healthy for them, but he tried to get traded into the off-season, and then quit on the team and wanted out halfway through the year. You can't make All-NBA when you gave up on the team you started on to hop to another one.
The parameters of team success seem to matter for All-NBA. A big reason Fox and Sabonis are going to make it is because the team they are on is shockingly good. A big argument in favor of Jaylen Brown making it is because his team is very good. Durant cried his way out of his original team and jumped to another team half-way through the season. I don't care that he was very efficient scoring the ball for Brooklyn, he (along with Kyrie) killed any serious contention status for Brooklyn by asking out. He should be penalized for that.
Asking to be traded in the middle of the season is textbook quitting on your team.
Durant didn't play enough games to qualify for post season awards imo, and demanding a trade is absolutely quitting on your team. That said, moops isn't off base for throwing some kudos at KD for not sitting out, getting fat, or playing like a dog. Guys sometimes do, when they want out and he didn't.
I wonder if voters will informally use 65 games this year as a basic rule of thumb for ALL-NBA since it was written into next year's CBA
That would eliminate LeBron, Durant, Kawhi, Paul George, Zion, Dame, Kyrie, Morany Ja, Curry
Guys that are close to 65 games played: Giannis, Butler, Embiid, Luka
Going forward teams will probably have players hit the floor for a minute then walk off after the first whistle (they should have done minutes played total IMO)
Let me just add to the chorus here that multiple public trade requests is absolutely 100% quitting on your team. I guess players like Harden and Kyrie have lowered the bar so much for “quitting” that this is now a discussion but it shouldn’t be
I was catching up on yesterday’s posts just now with this exact thought in my head about the CBA announcement this morning.
I wonder who was the driving side on this new rule: owners or players?
And if it was the owners, will players use this year to make a mockery of this rule with votes for players down around 50 GP?
No, just the media. I doubt there will be much pushback, but that doesn't mean that voters will immediately take the game limit into consideration (any more than they did before, at least).
I suspect some players like the new rule (Anthony Edwards) and some won't (Durant). I imagine it's mostly owners pushing this, because stars sitting more games means fewer and fewer fans will want to attend games live, or watch on TV.
Ya gotta love Knicks fans. Hoops Rumors posted this piece on the post-season and possible off-season moves:
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/knicks-notes-randle-barrett-resting-players-postseason-brunson.html
Some of the trade suggestions in the comments are insane, particularly this one:
My prediction, in the offseason the Knicks will trade for Jaylen Brown.
RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin and 4 firsts.
Money works perfectly, Knicks want a big name star and will be even more desperate after another taste of the playoffs. It’s looks as if Boston is questioning a Jaylen extension. He was recently asked about if he will stay and said didn’t exactly endorse wanting to stay.
I think the Celtics will again fall short in the playoffs this time to the Bucks. That and Brown needing a new deal will prompt them into wanting to retool. After they make this deal they then flip RJ, Obi and Horford for Bradley Beal, Deni Avidja, a first and 2 seconds.
This one is also nuts:
Randle, Barret, Robinson for Brown, R Williams and Kornet. Then trade Brodgon and picks for a Good PG.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/knicks-notes-randle-barrett-resting-players-postseason-brunson.html
Some of the trade suggestions in the comments are insane, particularly this one:
My prediction, in the offseason the Knicks will trade for Jaylen Brown.
RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin and 4 firsts.
Money works perfectly, Knicks want a big name star and will be even more desperate after another taste of the playoffs. It’s looks as if Boston is questioning a Jaylen extension. He was recently asked about if he will stay and said didn’t exactly endorse wanting to stay.
I think the Celtics will again fall short in the playoffs this time to the Bucks. That and Brown needing a new deal will prompt them into wanting to retool. After they make this deal they then flip RJ, Obi and Horford for Bradley Beal, Deni Avidja, a first and 2 seconds.
This one is also nuts:
Randle, Barret, Robinson for Brown, R Williams and Kornet. Then trade Brodgon and picks for a Good PG.
Barrett is one of those guys who almost looks like a player when you just look at his points, size, age and draft pedigree (and he's promising enough to have had some highlights). Then you see he doesn't really provide rebounding, defense (how have his steals and blocks both gone down every single year) or passing, and he's a pretty crummy shooter (and his free throw percentage says it ain't getting much better). His on/off this year is brutal (-10.3) and it wasn't much better last year (-8.0). He's solidly locked in as the 3rd option on the Knicks, yet his shooting efficiency is still trash (worse than any year of Brown or Tatum's career). No fucking thanks.
I don't love Barrett and Toppin is trash, but if BOS knows Jaylen is leaving, that is not the worst deal in the world
Depends on which 1sts they are, and the Cs would want a better player than Toppin and swaps, but that's not a crazy framework for a deal.
Would depend a LOT on the Cs evaluation of Barrett, obviously.
That Barrett contract is pretty bad. $26 million dollar player the Knicks aren't even using to close games. That's the kind of contract that will be passed around to teams looking to trade cap space for picks in the coming years.
I would assume any trade for Brown involving the Knicks would require Quickley or Grimes or the Celtics just hang up.
I would assume any trade for Brown involving the Knicks would require Quickley or Grimes or the Celtics just hang up.
Obi is hardly "trash." Toppin has now played over 30 minutes in a game just 8 times in his career. In those 8 games he is averaging:
24.3 PPG
6.2 RPG
2 SPG
1.1 BPG
3.1 3PM-PG
1.1 TO-PG
He'll be starting in place of the injured Julius Randle for at least the 1st round of the playoffs.
Dude seemed like he was coming up last year but haven't heard a whole lot about him this season.
Obi has regressed a bit from making improvements last year. I've always thought the Knicks have misused him as he has never been a great fit on their roster. His best role is as a primary screen and roll lob guy, but with players like Randle, Mitchell Robinson, even Barrett, he is pretty much reduced to being a corner three point shooter, something he isn't particularly good at. If he was hypothetically on the Celtics, I could see him doing a lot of what TL does on offense (without any of the defensive benefit).
It may not be the worst, I’m sure Morey will top that offer with something like Danuel House and PJ Tucker, but it sure as shit isn’t close to the best.
The only way something like that happens is if JB decides to raise a very public stink and makes it very clear that he only wants to go to the Knicks. Otherwise, there’s a litany of teams that can top that offer
The Knicks and Celtics just don’t match up well in a trade. The Knicks best assets are more attractive to a team tanking (picks, Quickley, Grimes) and the Celtics will want players that can help them now in return for Brown. It was a dumb idea from someone who is apparently a Knicks fan
So the overall trade would be Brown, Horford, a 1st and 2 2nds for Beal, Avdija and 4 1sts. Count me as a pretty firm no on that one
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He's no Time Lord but then who is? He's not a turnstile and can use his quickness to recover quickly.
Thibs has been misusing him for 3 years, refusing to play Obi alongside Randle for any meaningful minutes.
I'm a Dayton grad and would love for him to don the Green.
8 times, man. That's almost as many as Payton Pritchard (9x), in the same number of years, for a far worse team.
Lowe has made it clear in the past that he considers your history in his All-NBA votes, he had a pod last year where he basically said... "you have to have a much better season than LeBron or KD for me to put you on All-NBA over them", I assume it's some weird thing involving thinking about how it will be looked back at in the future rather than actually assessing the season.
Wow, I didn't realize he had gone that rogue.
I already felt good about the 65 game requirement for All-NBA, but this makes me feel even better. If you have voters just making shit up like that and explicitly turning these into lifetime achievement awards for 50 game players on 8 seeds, it's important to take decisions out of their hands. Particularly when players and teams are relying on this for compensation and franchise direction.
Butler is having arguably the most efficient season of his career (while also on pace to play more games than any season since his list in Chicago, 2017). Miami is just really hard to figure - Bam, Jimmy and Herro are their three most important guys and are basically as good as ever (and all reasonably healthy this year), yet they are 22nd in net rating and couldn't pass the blown up Nets. They were never really deserving of their 1 seed last year (pretty much everyone believed they were the 4th or 5th best team in the conference), but this is quite the fall.
I don't know that Miami's mediocrity is something to hold against Butler in this type of individual award (and his personal on/off is better this year than last).
I don't know that Miami's mediocrity is something to hold against Butler in this type of individual award (and his personal on/off is better this year than last).
On the most recent Lowe pod, we learn that it likely won't be a HARD 65, meaning players might get credits for games where their team doesn't allow them to play due to load management, but they "want" to play.
Which seems to, like, defeat the purpose.
I haven't seen any details like that...the recent language that game out from the CBA made it seem harder (minutes requirements), not softer. Possibly Lowe had it reported wrong?