Jaylen Brown, Year 7

[benhogan]

What do blocks and steals have to do with rotational team defense? Defensive stats are pretty much garbage in grading an individual defender within a team concept when that defender is relying on teammates for the scheme to be effective.

every one of Julius Randle's teammates plays defense or gets benched (see Reddish, Fournier, Rose, Kemba etc), so you can't blame it on the guys he is playing with

He has also played the 2nd most minutes in the NBA this season (another Thibs trait), so he probably takes breaks on D.

I haven't watched every Knicks game, but every time I see them he's invisible at best on defense, and it seems somewhat noteworthy that the Knicks do far better defensively when he's on the bench than when he's on the court (117.1 DRtg when he's on the court, 109.3 DRtg when he's on the bench).

Those numbers tell you something since he plays plenty of minutes. Calling him a below-average Defender in the regular season is fair. BUT he may be able to turn it up in the Playoffs with days off and intensity turned up.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I'm saying that the data says that he plays no defense, both the impact metrics and the box score ones. That leaves the eyeball test, which you imply makes Randle not bad I guess. I'm not organized enough to see how he ranks in opposing FG against or deflections or something else.

Randle may well suddenly be developing into a good defender but he has not been to date.

We have the Darko stats - for all of Randle's offensive prowess, he effectively gives most of his production back on defense.

Maybe Darko is wrong. As we all know, all analytics have flaws when it comes to measuring defense and that includes the advanced variety.

Let's look this Cleaning The Glass stat I plucked from a Knicks fan blog (ignore the topic being covered or dont - its irrelevant as all I care about is the CTG Randle content) posted back in December 2022 (back before Randle became Jailer Randle):

According to Cleaning the Glass, Randle ranks in the 1st percentile for opponent’s effective field goal percentage, boosting their shooting by 7.6% when he’s on the floor. To make matters worse, he also ranks in the 3rd percentile for opponent’s field goal percentage around the rim, as teams shoot +9.8% better with Randle “protecting the paint”. Lastly, he ranks in the 2nd percentile for opponent’s mid-range field goal percentage, as the opposition shoots +9.7% better in Randle’s presence.

Maybe the sample sizes being referred to aren't valid, though that would be out of character for CTG.

The thing is, as you go through analytics and even the Google machine, its hard to find anything other than anecdotes that describes Randle's D in positive terms. The numbers and analysis all say what you do - no bueno.

Where's the evidence to the contrary because I would love to see it? I am a fan of Julius' overall even if he is easier to get past than the MTA.

 

[benhogan]

Forsberg made the same point today: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/jaylen-browns-position-vital-celtics-stars-all-nba-chances.

However, given that voters voted for JB last year at guard, there will need to be an extensive, err, re-education campaign to get voters to vote for him as forward. Abby started that the other day as I mentioned and today Forsberg comes out with an article; it will be interesting to see whether this ramps up and whether it will make a difference.

On a side note, I was driving a lot this weekend and listened to Lowe's podcast with Van Gundy. Van Gundy gave up his all-NBA vote because he thinks the current way isn't a good way to do it (no one group looks at enough games to really make the determination but he admits he doesn't have a better answer). Interestingly enough, Lowe said that he thinks about giving up his all-NBA vote because given the contract he doesn't think voters should be in a position to have that much influence on what could have very significant team-building implications. For instance, should PHI and MIL sportswriters and broadcasters be able to determine whether BOS is more or less likely to keep JB simply by voting for him as a guard or leaving him off their ballots completely?

Lowe also doesn't have a better answer but thought he raised an important point.

Keep fighting the good fight. The Boston sportswriters have been highlighting the Brown FORWARD campaign

Splitting up the JAY Juggernaut is not a bad idea if you are a direct competitor

I suspect you'll have some WC voters that don't pay attention to Celtic starters + EC teams putting Jaylen on their ballot as a Guard. Even if they give him a vote as a Guard it screws Jaylen Brown's chances at ALL-NBA.

 

[benhogan]

I know a lot of folks around here didn't like the Jaylen contract when he signed it in 2019, but he took $15mil+ less than the max to come back here (putting aside the fact that $11mil of what he did sign for was incentive based). I said at the time that October that the contract would be a steal by Xmas, and I still stand by it.

This is his time to cash in for being a top 20 player in the NBA, and the C's need to be supporting that in every possible way. That thread went on for way too long, and stopped being about his contract, but to see what this guy has become since that time should make everyone want him around for years to come:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/jaylen-brown-re-signs-for-4-years-115-million.28627/

90% of the Board ended up liking it after the final terms were announced. Maybe 3-4 outliers didn't like it.

His work ethic and development have been steadily climbing every year. He's still improving as a player. Someone was running around with development magically stopping at 25. JB is rinsing that notion.

We have maybe 3-4 outliers that don't want Brown on a Super MAX, but again 90% want him in green at whatever the cost

 

[Euclis20]

every one of Julius Randle's teammates plays defense or gets benched (see Reddish, Fournier, Rose, Kemba etc), so you can't blame it on the guys he is playing with

He has also played the 2nd most minutes in the NBA this season (another Thibs trait), so he probably takes breaks on D.

Those numbers tell you something since he plays plenty of minutes. Calling him a below-average Defender in the regular season is fair. BUT he may be able to turn it up in the Playoffs with days off and intensity turned up.

Yeah, because Thibodeau coached teams are notorious for being able to turn up the intensity in the playoffs.

He's a lousy defender, perhaps capable of being merely average (and making up for it somewhat by being a very good rebounder (although even that is iffy, his teams' rebounding % is an identical 52.5% when he's on AND when he's off the court) when he's really trying, which may or may not happen in the playoffs. He's played 5 playoff games in 9 years, who knows.

 

[lovegtm]

What would an offseason trade package for JB look like, if it came to that?

Assume there are 2-4 teams he's said are destinations that he would re-sign with.

Only having a year under contract hurts his value, but his next deal, since it wouldn't be a supermax, would be quite a good deal for the acquirer.

 

[bankshot1]

I seldom play the trade game and I hope Jaylen wants to commit LT to the Celts, but we've played that high-risk game before and got zip, soooo

and I'm not sure I even like this (the fit is a concern) or its remotely doable (the trade machine says its ok, but will Cuban?) but WTF,

Trade JB to Dallas with Pritchard (I would like to keep TL and Smart, but I would give on Smart and I love Smart) and maybe a 1+ where he and his newly energized buddy KI can team up. And I understand KI is a FA flight risk but if he can't play with his buddy KD maybe he will resign with Dallas if JB is along side him.

Dallas gets a 2-way stud who's likely to be all-NBA for the next 5 years a scoring PG in PP, and a high 1 (and maybe a 2) to replenish their draft capital. And maybe a re-energized KI.

We get the unhappy Luka who longs for the cold northeast where basketball is important, maybe he works a little harder on D, and where he has a shot at multiple titles IF he can play with a 2nd alpha.

 

[benhogan]

Yeah, because Thibodeau coached teams are notorious for being able to turn up the intensity in the playoffs.

He's a lousy defender, perhaps capable of being merely average (and making up for it somewhat by being a very good rebounder (although even that is iffy, his teams' rebounding % is an identical 52.5% when he's on AND when he's off the court) when he's really trying, which may or may not happen in the playoffs. He's played 5 playoff games in 9 years, who knows.

Thibs works his team pretty hard during the regular season. We've talked about that endlessly around here.

I was strictly talking about Julius Randle not taking plays off on Defense, as he does during the regular season, and "turning it up" defensively in the playoffs

 

[benhogan]

What would an offseason trade package for JB look like, if it came to that?

Assume there are 2-4 teams he's said are destinations that he would re-sign with.

Only having a year under contract hurts his value, but his next deal, since it wouldn't be a supermax, would be quite a good deal for the acquirer.

It would have to be Jaylen's choice. There has always been ATL speculation, maybe Memphis? I put together a back-of-the-envelope list of names to kick around below

1. JJJ + Desmond Bane
2. Anthony Edwards
3. Mikal Bridges + Nic Claxton+
4. Pascal Siakam + OG Anunoby+
5. Devin Booker
6. Bam Adebayo++
7. Julius Randle+
8. Brandon Ingram++
9. Zach LaVine++

A lot would depend on where JB wanted to play/sign long-term, but here is a short list of names that would potentially be in play.

Just to be clear, I'm not advocating for a trade, my #1 choice would be to extend Brown this summer. BUT since a few people have said they would rather not pay a #2 the Super Max may as well spill some internet ink on it. I'd lean toward the top of that list.

IMO Brown should only get moved if he demands a trade or Brad has any inclination that he won't resign. Next season would be a shitshow if this isn't resolved by the start of next season. Brown playing out his contract and signing with another team in UFA shouldn't be an option. Letting Kyrie, in his prime, sign elsewhere with no return was one of Danny's biggest mistakes.

While it was debated last summer, I had no interest in Boston dealing Brown+ for Durant in the Fall or last month. KD is old & brittle. He has battled injuries all year and it will only get worse over the next few seasons. I'd put a line through past, older All-Stars: Brad Beal, Dame Lillard, AD, Paul George, Jimmy Butler or any other NBA geriatric superstar.

 

[Van Everyman]

Can someone explain the logic behind not giving Jaylen the Super Max? Unless it’s robbing Tatum of some long(er)-term opportunity to stay (since he’s already on a max deal), I don’t see it. This team and its title aspirations are built on two guys who have learned to mesh really well together. Jaylen is one of them.

 

[lovegtm]

Can someone explain the logic behind not giving Jaylen the Super Max? Unless it’s robbing Tatum of some long(er)-term opportunity to stay (since he’s already on a max deal), I don’t see it. This team and its title aspirations are built on two guys who have learned to mesh really well together. Jaylen is one of them.

I think if he's eligible for the Supermax, you give it to him and figure out trade/fit issues later, if necessary.

I was asking for trade hypotheticals for the scenario where he's not eligible for it this summer, or turns it down.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What would an offseason trade package for JB look like, if it came to that?

Assume there are 2-4 teams he's said are destinations that he would re-sign with.

Only having a year under contract hurts his value, but his next deal, since it wouldn't be a supermax, would be quite a good deal for the acquirer.

At some point there is a decent chance Doncic asked for a trade. What if that some point is this summer who are the teams Dallas would look to work with to get greater than $.50 on the dollar? The Celtics would be on that short list along with Minnesota (Edwards) and Indiana (Haliburton) off top of head. Those players could also be in discussions for Jaylen.

Can someone explain the logic behind not giving Jaylen the Super Max? Unless it’s robbing Tatum of some long(er)-term opportunity to stay (since he’s already on a max deal), I don’t see it. This team and its title aspirations are built on two guys who have learned to mesh really well together. Jaylen is one of them.

Paying close to $50m annually to your #2 is going to limit options on the rest of the roster. It would likely cost us 1-2 of the salary slots that are occupied by TL, Brogdon and White. I can see the case for both sides but Jaylen’s name continuing to pop up in trade rumors, espeically for a player on the downside of his career like Durant, isn’t by accident. I have a feeling that ownership isn’t too keen on $290m for a #2.

I wouldn’t discount the Ainge factor here either as he has accumulated a ton of assets that he will soon be looking to move for a young star player.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Is this feeling a disturbance in the force? Did your neighbors dog send you messages? Did Wyc share it on some text chain?

Because, generally speaking, you sign the player to that salary slot if you can get it assuming you care about roster flexibility - even if you may not want the player long term.

Not doing so signals more than that they don't want to pay Jaylen Brown that amount. They are effectively punting on being a serious contender.

What am I missing here?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Is this feeling a disturbance in the force? Did your neighbors dog send you messages? Did Wyc share it on some text chain?

Because, generally speaking, you sign the player to that salary slot if you can get it assuming you care about roster flexibility - even if you may not want the player long term.

Not doing so signals more than that they don't want to pay Jaylen Brown that amount. They are effectively punting on being a serious contender.

What am I missing here?

That $20m slots are super valuable while $50m ones can be a hindrance in building out your roster when it isn’t even the guy you are building around. This team wouldn’t look anything like it does now if Jaylen’s supermax were in place today.

Not sure why you continue being obtuse toward me recently. No Wyc, No neighbors dog, only discussing reasons why the team has already been considering moving on prior to this decision. We are discussing what an offseason trade would look like yet you ignore the thread and come after me. Hasn’t been the first time either. At least you didn’t call me an antisemite this time so at least you’re making strides.

 

[RorschachsMask]

What would an offseason trade package for JB look like, if it came to that?

Assume there are 2-4 teams he's said are destinations that he would re-sign with.

Only having a year under contract hurts his value, but his next deal, since it wouldn't be a supermax, would be quite a good deal for the acquirer.

Just to play the game….if/when the Sixers flame out, and Harden potentially going back to Houston, Jaylen/Rob for Embiid? Him and Tatum are good friends, have trained together Tatum’s whole career, and their games would mesh incredibly well.

 

[lovegtm]

A couple observations that emerge from these Jaylen trade scenarios:

1. The Celtics have a big advantage in trading for a star who is unhappy next year: no one else really has a package like Jaylen + picks/swaps, where the receiving team gets a top-20 player, and the sending team is OK to lose a top-20 player. Usually, in these situations, the team with the top-20 player needs to keep that guy to have the star trade make sense in the first place.

2. It's not clear why Jaylen would agree to go to these teams that are flaming out and losing their star, when he could sign with a good team. So that will make it harder for one of these "Jaylen+picks for a star" trades to actually work, even though they make sense when you don't have to worry about JB re-signing in that place.

 

[benhogan]

Just to play the game….if/when the Sixers flame out, and Harden potentially going back to Houston, Jaylen/Rob for Embiid? Him and Tatum are good friends, have trained together Tatum’s whole career, and their games would mesh incredibly well.

much like Dallas if they traded Luka, I think Philly would go JAN6! if they dealt the Process. He probably wins MVP this year

I don't care for injury prone Centers or paying for Centers in general (although Jokic and Embiid are the ones you do that for)

That being said my favorite package to go after would be Bane/JJJ for Brown+

 

[Auger34]

Just to play the game….if/when the Sixers flame out, and Harden potentially going back to Houston, Jaylen/Rob for Embiid? Him and Tatum are good friends, have trained together Tatum’s whole career, and their games would mesh incredibly well.

Wow that’s a very interesting one…I honestly don’t think either team does it.

It’s incredibly hard to come up with Jaylen trades.

The obvious one is the one that was broached earlier, but if Dallas keeps flaming out then maybe Jaylen+assets can get Doncic. Luka is so gifted that you have to make that trade (although I do question how much he really wants to give up the ball and how much he can “lock in”. Both defensively and with his offseason habits)

@benhogan put together a list but I think it’s mostly a mixture of too much for Jaylen (the Memphis offer, don’t think Minnesota gives up Edwards for him but KAT+ is somewhat intriguing) or not enough (Bulls just don’t have the pieces with LaVine’s injury history and their lack of picks, want no part of Randle as a centerpiece).

However, there are two that I think stand out and might actually happen. the Brooklyn one is intriguing and I think might work for both teams. Bridges+Claxton+a pick of two for Jaylen….Bridges is a great get for any team. He’s really malleable and I think would be a good #2 with Tatum. Claxton is excellent Rob insurance and then they can really afford to keep Rob in bubble wrap until important games. It’s not ideal because the two of them can’t play together but he’s also a player you could flip for other pieces if needed.
Toronto also has the framework. Siakam is an interesting Al replacement. OG is a very good player as well but if he’s disgruntled in Toronto at not getting enough offense, I don’t think he’d love coming to Boston and probably getting less offense. Maybe Gary Trent+Siakam+a pick

New Orleans and Miami are interesting but I’m not sure trading for JB is a huge net plus for either. New Orleans needs a point guard/creator with size to cover up for McCollum. Miami just needs more good players in general not a swap of really good players.

In the end, I think this is all moot. Jaylen’s on a run right now and I think he makes All-NBA. I’ll just enjoy the great team with two super max stars and let Wyc worry about not being able to buy another yacht or jet

 

[Jimbodandy]

In the end, I think this is all moot. Jaylen’s on a run right now and I think he makes All-NBA. I’ll just enjoy the great team with two super max stars and let Wyc worry about not being able to buy another yacht or jet

I want to grow old and take Alaskan cruises with this post.

 

[Pablo's TB Lover]

First things first: warts and all, I want Jaylen to retire a Celtic. He is an absolute gamer and is always willing to be the 1A when Tatum is either out or ineffective, although he is not quite as consistent as Jayson in that role (passing and ball-handling are just a notch below what is needed). Any off the court items I disagree with - general agreement with Kyrie on social issues and association with Kanye are the red flags in this regard - do not in any way affect his on court play. Unlike Larry Legend, whose off the court activities of doing his own hard labor I could care less about but DID mess up his back. Or his cohort Kyrie who was willing to sit out games to prove a point. Let me be clear, POBOBS will patch a nice supporting cast together even with 2 Supermax spots taken and I want to see this happen!

As for the upcoming situations and each side's interests, it is easy if Jaylen gets the Supermax:
JB = Dumb if he requests a trade before signing the Supermax. Would throw so much money out the window for only a slightly advanced departure from Boston. The modus operandi for players now, is to sign the Supermax THEN ask for a trade once they get through the first season if unhappy. And with Tatum's supermax kicking in around the time of one year after Brown's, maybe it would be a mutual beneficial decision for both parties to go in different directions at that time (later rather than sooner).
Celtics = Dumb to trade Jaylen before the Supermax. You will not get a great return for JB with a year or less left on his contract, and if you just wait until the ink dries on the future contract he has 4-5 years of cost certainty for a new team, making him much more attractive as the cap likely continues to rise. Unless you are an absolute albatross like Russell Westbrook, these high contracts are never as tough to move as anyone thinks before it happens.

If not getting the Supermax:
JB = Getting a trade before free agency only helps him make an informed decision i.e. a "try before you buy". Based on his recent interview, Jaylen doesn't seem like the "lifer" type who puts excessive thought into staying with one organization. So in that respect, this is consistent with his thinking, especially if money is not a factor. Being traded also gives you a better out from the city than if you outright sign with another team in free agency; there is some degree of separation.
Celtics = Wise to at least kick around trade opportunities rather than waiting for a free agency period and none of "us" (fans and probably front office) really knowing what will drive Jaylen in making his FA decision. Without Jaylen, the surrounding cast for Jayson will still need a clear sidekick rather than a bunch of mid-level guys, and instead of having nothing trading JB gives you a crack at a (probably) small downgrade from him, or gives you future swings to hit on a premier draft pick.

 

[bankshot1]

much like Dallas if they traded Luka, I think Philly would go JAN6! if they dealt the Process. He probably wins MVP this year

I don't care for injury prone Centers or paying for Centers in general (although Jokic and Embiid are the ones you do that for)

That being said my favorite package to go after would be Bane/JJJ for Brown+

They might go nuts in Philly if they traded Embiid and they'd go fucking ballistic if it was to the Celts, there is some modest tradition between the teams, and they glass is half-Fultz for many Philly fans.

Dallas would yawn, Hook Em Horns and How bout them Cowboys through a hoops identity crisis. And there's always NASCAR and the rodeo.

As far as Embiid to the Celts, hard no. I'd much rather watch some iteration of The Js and strong D than a team centered on Goliath. Plus there are some guys who are better as foes to be conquered in basketball battle. Embiid is strongly in the camp. The Celts own his ass as a 76er and IF the day comes, they'll own his ass as a Laker. Thats a tradition too.

 

[TripleOT]

.Jaylen Brown is one of the best two way SGs in the league, if not the best. Pairing him with Tatum, a Top five player, for the next five years as they both enter their prime, is a no brainer. Ownership will have to spend, but championships should increase revenue and franchise value. It’s easier to fill a roster around two top players in or entering their prime, than acquiring two top players in or entering their prime.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Also, the Cs can trade a supermax contract for a bunch of smaller contracts if they decide. They are not rigidly locked in to that salary structure and if they needed to get it off their books for whatever reason, they are likely to have some avenues.

The supermax is an enormous amount of money but its fairly liquid in today's NBA.

 

[benhogan]

It's a combination of money and production.

A Super MAX is liquid if the player stays healthy and plays like an All-Star.

BUT let's not pretend he couldn't get injured, then it's not so easy to move without stapling assets. That may be of concern to those that fear the MAX.

Luckily Brown isn't a shrimpy PG, with bad knees, tons of mileage, and turning 30. Stay clear of those MAX contracts.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Name one supermax that has hamstrung a team and include injury riddled players. I can't think of one deal that was immoveable.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

.Jaylen Brown is one of the best two way SGs in the league, if not the best. Pairing him with Tatum, a Top five player, for the next five years as they both enter their prime, is a no brainer. Ownership will have to spend, but championships should increase revenue and franchise value. It’s easier to fill a roster around two top players in or entering their prime, than acquiring two top players in or entering their prime.

SMALL FORWARD DAMMIT

 

[DJnVa]

View: https://twitter.com/celticsforum/status/1640888624978751489?s=46&t=WQi6iqIXzyd2nQDr6B-03Q

 

[Helmet Head]

Per ballsack sports, a parody account.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Close to half of the Supermax contracts turned out to be god awful. Wall, Gobert, Westbrook and some could say Harden, while not “that” bad is certainly one that most would do over if they had to do.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Anecdata is not data. Those are bad contracts and yet the clubs with whom they signed are no longer on the hook to any of them.

To be clear, there are definitely lots of contracts that work against teams, sometimes quite badly. Nobody here is denying it that I can see. But teams can and do pay to get them off the books pretty regularly.

A bad max contract can suck but we have little evidence that they actually cost teams windows or that they hamstring a team long-term. We do have lots of evidence that some of the teams handing them out aren't well run but that would be the case regardless of the type of deal being offered.

Let's get back to why the C's aren't going to offer Jaylen Brown a supermax if its available. What evidence, statements or even gossip can you point to that informs your feelings here?

 

[The Social Chair]

Anecdata is not data. Those are bad contracts and yet the clubs with whom they signed are no longer on the hook to any of them.

Houston, Washington, and Utah are all in a bad place right now. OKC is doing OK because they fleeced the Clippers and Rockets. You do need to bottom out to recover from a bad supermax contract. Having said that, I give Jaylen a supermax 10 out of 10 times. Especially with a new TV deal increasing the cap.

 

[benhogan]

Boston will offer a Super MAX contract to Brown if given the opportunity. 90% of the Board feels that way.

BUT every MAX contract isn't created equal, some have been tricky to move. Danny wanted to move Kemba after year 1 and had the phone slammed down on him that summer. Eventually, we lived with a load-managed Kemba for a wasted season. Kemba's contract required a 1st to be stapled to it. Plenty of others have been underwater pretty quickly. I highly doubt Jaylen's would be since he's 26 and an uber-athletic WING, but you never know. I can understand folks not wanting a concentrated bet on the C's #2, even though I'd push ALL IN on JB.

 

[chilidawg]

Nice article in Celtics Blog focusing on JB's improved playmaking.

“I just think he’s always had the ability to score,” Mazzulla said after the game. “But now he has the ability to break defenses down, to understand how the defense is guarding him, to anticipate where the help is coming from, and then to make the right play. And so, to me, his scoring is obviously huge for us. But his decision-making and his reads have gotten a lot better. It’s a credit to him because he works at them every single day.”

https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/3/28/23660043/jaylen-brown-did-more-than-score-against-the-spurs-boston-celtics-nba-playoff-preview-jayson-tatum

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Houston, Washington, and Utah are all in a bad place right now. OKC is doing OK because they fleeced the Clippers and Rockets. You do need to bottom out to recover from a bad supermax contract. Having said that, I give Jaylen a supermax 10 out of 10 times. Especially with a new TV deal increasing the cap.

Houston and Washington are poorly run franchises. Utah and OKC, who are both being run by people who appear to want to compete, are separated by two games in the WC at present.

The Thunder are probably closer to being relevant but Utah is a mid-tier team on the upswing. Both of them cleaned up their messes because the reality of the league is that the play-in format has increased the number of teams who might reach to make a run.

Back to the topic at hand, you nailed it imo. If Brown gets All-NBA the C's will likely offer him the supermax because the new cap will help smooth Wyc/ownership's pain. A winning team probably helps their cash-flow as well as the franchise value so that needs to be considered as well.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Anecdata is not data. Those are bad contracts and yet the clubs with whom they signed are no longer on the hook to any of them.

To be clear, there are definitely lots of contracts that work against teams, sometimes quite badly. Nobody here is denying it that I can see. But teams can and do pay to get them off the books pretty regularly.

A bad max contract can suck but we have little evidence that they actually cost teams windows or that they hamstring a team long-term. We do have lots of evidence that some of the teams handing them out aren't well run but that would be the case regardless of the type of deal being offered.

Let's get back to why the C's aren't going to offer Jaylen Brown a supermax if its available. What evidence, statements or even gossip can you point to that informs your feelings here?

I agree that if Jaylen is still a Celtic at the time we will offer him the supermax….we would have to or ugliness will surely ensue. My point of the possibility of us NOT paying it would be in the form of a trade occurring well beforehand. The “evidence, statements or gossip” have been in the fact that his name has already been involved in trade discussions.

 

[lovegtm]

Close to half of the Supermax contracts turned out to be god awful. Wall, Gobert, Westbrook and some could say Harden, while not “that” bad is certainly one that most would do over if they had to do.

Wait, what????

Gobert and Harden were both moved for massive hauls. The Jazz and Rockets are ecstatic they had them on those deals and available to trade.

Westbrook also got OKC very significant draft assets when they moved him. Great signing, 10/10, Presti does that again every day of the week.

Wall, of course, is the poster child for bad supermaxes. Why is he the poster child? Because he's literally the only one on that list who wasn't traded (by his original team) for a big haul.

Now, *acquiring* supermax deals in trade is another thing altogether, but the history of *signing* them has been EXTREMELY favorable to the signing teams, if and when they wanted to move the guy.

 

[DJnVa]

Per ballsack sports, a parody account.

Yes, sorry. I was in on the joke, thought it was obvious.

 

[GreenMonster49]

Houston, Washington, and Utah are all in a bad place right now. OKC is doing OK because they fleeced the Clippers and Rockets. You do need to bottom out to recover from a bad supermax contract. Having said that, I give Jaylen a supermax 10 out of 10 times. Especially with a new TV deal increasing the cap.

Utah has three first-round picks this year and probably three more in 2025 (they have a protected first-round pick in 2024-2026 going to Charlotte if it falls outside of top 10/10/8 those years). They need only a bit of luck to make the play-in games. They won't pay luxury tax this year (and will get a roughly $17 million payout). Because they are off the hook for Westbrook's contract after this season, they have about $35 million in room under the cap for next year (and can clear another $11.5 million if they cut Kelly Olynyk and Kris Dunn. If that's a bad place, I wonder what Dallas is.

 

[The Social Chair]

If you sign a bad supermax just hope there is a GM as bad as Tim Connelly out there.

Utah has three first-round picks this year

The only lottery pick will be their own. Maybe Danny can find the next Romeo Langford and Carsen Edwards?

Utah is going to need to get a lot worse to find a franchise player or they'll be stuck in the play-in game for years. They aren't getting free agents.

Maybe I'm wrong, but they went from the 1 seed in 2021 to a future bottom dweller because of the need to get out from the Gobert contract.

 

[ManicCompression]

Maybe I'm wrong, but they went from the 1 seed in 2021 to a future bottom dweller because of the need to get out from the Gobert contract.

You are wrong. They proved time and again that the team as constructed - with Mitchell and Gobert as their centerpieces - had a hard ceiling of early round playoff chum. They could pile up regular season wins with their system, but once they faced teams that could exploit their weaknesses in the playoffs - namely that Rudy Gobert cannot exploit mismatches against smaller players on offense - they were overmatched.

They didn't "have to get out of the Gobert contract." They could continue to roll out that squad and make the playoffs, but that would be it. When Minnesota bowled them over with an offer that no GM would refuse, they took it. One could argue that the leverage they had to continue on with their current roster forced Connelly to bid against himself. I don't blame a team for wanting to compete, but it would've been silly to pass over what Minnesota put on the table.

Now they have a player as good as Rudy Gobert in Walker Kessler, only he's 1/10th the price, a decade younger, and still has potential to grow as a player. Are the draft picks amazing? No, but they got Donovan Mitchell with the 14th pick, and as we've seen, you don't need to necessarily be at the top of the lottery to get all-star talent (Giannis, SGA, Paul George, Kawhi, Franz Wagner, Mitchell, etc.). They now have a ton of bets to place.

 

[Jimbodandy]

If you sign a bad supermax just hope there is a GM as bad as Tim Connelly out there.



The only lottery pick will be their own. Maybe Danny can find the next Romeo Langford and Carsen Edwards?

Utah is going to need to get a lot worse to find a franchise player or they'll be stuck in the play-in game for years. They aren't getting free agents.

Maybe I'm wrong, but they went from the 1 seed in 2021 to a future bottom dweller because of the need to get out from the Gobert contract.

The 1 seed is all fine and good after a try-hard regular season, but that wasn't a team construction that was ever going to win a championship. I have no idea whether Danny has the karma to build an actual contender there or not, but he's not going to fail because he traded Rudy Gobert.

 

[benhogan]

I believe @The Social Chair 's point was that the Gobert Super MAX was a bad contract that was bailed out by the T-Wolves being inept. On the whole betting on Super Max contracts is fine barring physical/mental injuries (John Wall/Ben Simmons). There are NBA owners/GMs that will always do dumb, short-term moves that will pay up for contracts. Luckily Boston has Brad/Zarren, who have been exceptional on re-signings/trades/RFA. I'm 100% confident they have a Jaylen Brown game plan whether he gets the Super MAX or not.

I'd push back on Utah now being stuck. Danny is shrewdly rebuilding the Jazz on the fly. He is exceptional at those monster deals and most NBA teams should just remove the Utah quick-dial from their phone banks. The Gobert move may go down as the greatest NBA heist ever. The Dono deal has also been an A+, with Markkanen getting ALL NBA votes.

Betting on longer-dated Wolves & Cavs unprotected draft picks has historically been a winning trade. Utah fans should be thrilled with the future of their team in Danny's hands.

 

[Auger34]

For those of us on the Jaylen All-NBA train, the most recent Lowe Post pod is an interesting listen. He has Tim McMahon on, who is of the opinion that Brown should absolutely be All-NBA and has him as 2nd team All-NBA with Butler. Lowe, and I am a big fan of the guy, is oddly cold towards Brown while throwing out a bunch of names who clearly have no real shot of making it (for example, he mentions DeRozan and LaVine multiple times. Also throws out Garland and Trae Young. Yet for some reason, he won’t give Brown his flowers but says Butler is a must 2nd team because he’s a “winner”. McMahon quickly pushes back on that thankfully)

 

[Jimbodandy]

For those of us on the Jaylen All-NBA train, the most recent Lowe Post pod is an interesting listen. He has Tim McMahon on, who is of the opinion that Brown should absolutely be All-NBA and has him as 2nd team All-NBA with Butler. Lowe, and I am a big fan of the guy, is oddly cold towards Brown while throwing out a bunch of names who clearly have no real shot of making it (for example, he mentions DeRozan and LaVine multiple times. Also throws out Garland and Trae Young. Yet for some reason, he won’t give Brown his flowers but says Butler is a must 2nd team because he’s a “winner”. McMahon quickly pushes back on that thankfully)

Their boy band name is "Four Guys Who Suck at Defense".

That's maybe a bit unfair to Garland, but the others are turnstiles.

 

[lovegtm]

For those of us on the Jaylen All-NBA train, the most recent Lowe Post pod is an interesting listen. He has Tim McMahon on, who is of the opinion that Brown should absolutely be All-NBA and has him as 2nd team All-NBA with Butler. Lowe, and I am a big fan of the guy, is oddly cold towards Brown while throwing out a bunch of names who clearly have no real shot of making it (for example, he mentions DeRozan and LaVine multiple times. Also throws out Garland and Trae Young. Yet for some reason, he won’t give Brown his flowers but says Butler is a must 2nd team because he’s a “winner”. McMahon quickly pushes back on that thankfully)

This is an award for the 2022-23 season, right? It's extremely unclear to me what Jimmy has been "winning" at this year.

 

[JCizzle]

This is an award for the 2022-23 season, right? It's extremely unclear to me what Jimmy has been "winning" at this year.

Maybe he’s still trying to give Jimmy credit for almost hitting a shot in the ECF last year? Zach bizarrely continued to talk about the Heat as if they made the Finals in pods after that series. That might be the most overhyped missed three with 13 seconds left in NBA history. The media made it seem like the Hayward last second miss against Duke.

 

[lovegtm]

Maybe he’s still trying to give Jimmy credit for almost hitting a shot in the ECF last year? Zach bizarrely continued to talk about the Heat as if they made the Finals in pods after that series. That might be the most overhyped missed three with 13 seconds left in NBA history. The media made it seem like the Hayward last second miss against Duke.

Yeah, it was a big shot, and he didn't make it, but a LOT had to go right for the Heat to even be in the spot for him to take that shot. Is Marcus Smart a winner because he took a 3 that would have put the game away?

The fact is, Jimmy has made 1 Finals, and lost it in convincing fashion. His teams haven't been that good in the regular season or in any other playoffs.

Tatum and Brown have arguably better resumes and are a lot younger.

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah, it was a big shot, and he didn't make it, but a LOT had to go right for the Heat to even be in the spot for him to take that shot. Is Marcus Smart a winner because he took a 3 that would have put the game away?

The fact is, Jimmy has made 1 Finals, and lost it in convincing fashion. His teams haven't been that good in the regular season or in any other playoffs.

Tatum and Brown have arguably better resumes and are a lot younger.

If Jimmy wasn't with Spo he wouldn't be getting any attention. It's the Spo witchcraft that got that series to 7 games, not Jimmy Butler. Yes, he had an epic game 6 and a great game 7 as well. He also put up a 3 for 14 and 4 for 18 in games 4 and 5 losses.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I will not understand the love for Jimmy Butler this season that he seems to get. Even in this thread, there are folks putting him in as automatic 2nd team guy. IMO, maybe he gets a 3rd team spot, but I wouldn't even consider that automatic. Of course, I don't have a vote, and well, Jaylen, but I just don't get it. Besides getting to the free throw line at a ludicrous rate for whatever reason, IMO, he isn't doing anything on the court this year better than Jaylen, and if Jaylen got the calls he gets, they wouldn't even be in the same conversation.

 

[Kliq]

Those backdoor cuts last night leading to baseline slams were so, so glorious.