I'm definitely enjoying them, but they're not going to win a playoff series as currently constructed, and certainly not two.
This is a very good analysis, especially about Felton, Gallo and Randolph. Douglas too, but I'm not sure he will ever have real PG skills, he's an undersized two. Stoudemire I actually think can keep this up all year, although it'd of course be better if he didn't have to every night (which is why the first half today was so promising, NY scored 66 and Amare only had 6 of them, the other four starters all outscored him).
My guess is that Randolph is not long for the Knicks. His name has been thrown around in a couple of deals, including, interestingly enough, in a deal that would send him to Houston in exchange for the Knicks old first round pick. There's also been rumors about Mayo coming to New York, though from what I've heard Memphis is far more interested in Chandler than in Randolph. That said, it's pretty clear to me that Randolph doesn't fit into D'Antoni's plans, and D'Antoni has never struck me as the type of coach that has the patience to deal with a Randolph type.
The problem is, they can in some situations. In this case, Carmelo is forcing the Nuggets to trade him to the Knicks or he won't sign an extension. The Nuggets have to trade him there since no other team will ante up what it takes to get him for only a half-season. The Knicks are in the drivers seat. They know they are going to get Anthony and they can get him at whatever price they want unless the Nuggets want to get Bosh'd and be lame ducks in front of their fan base.
I think it's a great precedent, I'd much rather the players have more power and the owners less. It'll be interesting to see if the league somehow tries to counter that with the next CBA.
I wouldn't overstate the Knicks' leverage- Melo is going to lose an assload of money if he doesn't sign an extension this year. If you're the Magic, why not trade all of your young assets for a half year rental? Worst case they elevate to contender status this year, best case Melo decides to sign an extension since Orlando isn't a horrible deal and he doesn't want to lose all of that scrill.
There's definitely risk for the Knicks (that Orlando scenario for example), but if Carmelo really is dead set on NYK, I think they would be nuts to make a trade when they could just hold their breath and sign him as a free agent in June. Melo on the Knicks is great for them. Melo on the Knicks with Gallo and Randolph (and whatever picks they have left) is much better for them. A team with Melo, Amare, Gallo, Randolph and so on is on the right path for sure. One built on just Melo and Amare is less certain and would still be building.
I'm not so sure that a team of Paul, Melo, and Amare surrounded by scraps is really in much better shape than a team with Felton, Melo, and Amare with guys like Fields, Gallo, and Chandler playing supporting roles. Obviously that only happens if the Knicks sign Carmelo in Free Agency, as they'd have to give a few of those assets to Denver in order to trade for Anthony, but given the way that Felton is thriving in D'Antoni's system, I'm not sure the upgrade to Chris Paul is significant enough to part with Gallinari, Felton, and Fields. Personally, I'd prefer this team:
On a R2 contract, how is he not getting more love as a trade piece? Are you telling me Denver can't put a near equal value on this guy for 400k a year vs. Favors for $3M given their cheapness?
That's absurd to me from a basketball standpoint, and I can't see how it would work from a cap standpoint. Better teams are going to find ways to shut down Amare, just as Boston, Miami and Orlando have. So, unless we want to play for the 6 seed every year and a first round exit, you have to think a little bit past "Gallo!!!1 Wil the Thrill!!!" and winning some regular seasons games. Howard also might be the perfect fit, but he's not a free agent for another year+, which is valuable time off a healthy Amare, and the likelihood of him coming here is even less than with Melo.
Just to nitpick a little, Amare was dominant against Orlando when the refs let him play, 30 points in 32 minutes and 4 impressive blocks until the refs started calling imaginary fouls (and an absurd T, already rescinded) on him. I almost never complain about the refs, but the way they treated Amare in that game was ridiculous.
So at the cost of killing their future financial flexibility, they move from 6th to 4th or 5th in the conference? That doesn't make much sense to me.
Just to nitpick some more, Amare is averaging 33 PPG vs the Celtics this season.
Financial flexibility is a goal so you can obtain a superstar. Melo is a superstar. If he were added to this roster, I'd put them at a close tie for 3 behind Miami and Boston with Orlando, which means in a year or 2 its just them, Orlando and Miami (and if Dwight leaves, just them and Miami). In any case, they are at the upper echelon of the conference, and would be competitive with anyone in a playoff series. That's all you can ask for.
Chandler's strength is on defense, of course. NY is leading the league in shot blocking right now, but in part, that's because the other team gets to the basket so often.
Maybe what I'm not understanding here is how the idea that the Knicks have their choice of stars comes in to play? Lets say we passed on Melo as both a deal and as a FA, provided we had those opportunities. Where would the cap room come from for Howard in 2012? And why would we wait that long when there's probably a 50%+ chance he resigns with the moves they've made for him, and he's flirted much more with the Lakers than the Knicks? And who are the other potential stars to hit the market? Paul or Williams? Even if we could clear the room for them, it would be at the expense of Felton. So you'd end up with 2 stars and a few good role players, rather than 2 stars, a borderline All-Star, and some good role players.
Sure, it's complicated, but I think if you could add a few smaller pieces like Channing Frye (probably overpriced but what a great fit for a D'Antoni team) and a young athletic backup PG while keeping Wilson Chandler for the same $20M per that it'll cost to sign Melo (even if they can get him in FA), that team might be better. Anyway, I'm glad I don't have Donnie Walsh's job, some very tough decisions to be made.
Ok, but how does the second star come into the mix?
Good call. He's putting it on the floor and rebounding more. Walker has also played pretty well in the post-Gallo void, not just jacking up shots but rebounding and playing a little defense.
His attitude seems pretty lousy, but the NY part isn't really right. D'Antoni hates to play anyone at any position who can't hit the open 3, and that certainly isn't part of Randolph's game.
I hope we grab Earl Barron too, or even better, compete for Murphy. Having some depth at PF/C will be massively useful. Release Balkman and Carter or Brewer (though I could easily see a case for keeping either of them).
