Is It Over Now? Chiefs/Niners SB Thread

DJnVa

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My Niners fan friends are just absolutely sick right now and I don’t blame them. That game was there for the taking. Getting nothing after the INT starting at KC’s 44 and then following that up later with the McCloud play was just an excruciating series of events.
If that goes down in history as the McCloud play that's extremely unfair to him.
 

BaseballJones

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I just don't think it's fair to criticize them from moving away from the run game when the run game wasn't working.
In their scoring drive at the end of the second quarter, here were their run plays:

McCaffrey for 5
Mitchell for 7
Mitchell for 1 plus a 15-yard penalty

They added a 6 yard run before the half. Four carries, 19 yards. They had found a little something there, but at the start of the third quarter, for three straight possessions, they simply didn't run it.
 

Tony C

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I was amazed that SF didn't try to run the ball at the beginning of the third quarter. Shanahan is a pretty smart guy, were the Chiefs loading the box and daring him to throw? I listened to Bill Simmons' podcast this morning, Sal and Bill thought Purdy played a good game. I thought he was OK, he came out playing well, made some nice plays here and there but he missed guys or was hurried in the second half and OT.
Barnwell in his ESPN column has an illustration of how the Chiefs loaded the box vs the run during the 3rd quarter.

To me the overall game plan was very balanced and the numbers back that up. The 49ers were taking what was given them vs a very good defense. A lot of the finger pointing seems like, well, like finger pointing. A very tight game. Well played on both sides. Sometimes there's no scapegoats despite our need for them.

I do think the 9ers should have kicked off in OT, but also get that it's defensible either way.
 

Super Nomario

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In their scoring drive at the end of the second quarter, here were their run plays:

McCaffrey for 5
Mitchell for 7
Mitchell for 1 plus a 15-yard penalty

They added a 6 yard run before the half. Four carries, 19 yards. They had found a little something there, but at the start of the third quarter, for three straight possessions, they simply didn't run it.
They started one of those drives with a run and got zero yards. The run game wasn't working for SF last night. That was a big reason they lost.
 

BaseballJones

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They started one of those drives with a run and got zero yards. The run game wasn't working for SF last night. That was a big reason they lost.
It was the third of the three drives, when they did absolutely nothing on all pass plays the first two drives.
 

BaseballJones

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On their TD and FG drives at the end of the fourth Q and OT, they ran 8 times for 32 yards. You're right, @Super Nomario - they didn't run with great effectiveness, but it wasn't like they couldn't run at all. They just needed to stick with it.
 

Devizier

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I think there is way too much weight being placed in the analysis of ~50/50 decisions and roster construction in what was an extremely close game.

I don’t think the SFO play calling decisions were in the same league as in the SEA-NE Super Bowl, and even that goal line pass was defensible.
 

Super Nomario

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On their TD and FG drives at the end of the fourth Q and OT, they ran 8 times for 32 yards. You're right, @Super Nomario - they didn't run with great effectiveness, but it wasn't like they couldn't run at all. They just needed to stick with it.
Romo was saying similar last night and this mentality has never made a lot of sense to me. They ran 31 times. What, was the 32nd suddenly gonna be a 50-yarder? The running game wasn't working; at some point, the solution has to be "less of it" and not "more of it."
 

BigSoxFan

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I’d like to know what KC did to take Kittle/Aiyuk out of the game. I’m assuming they were funneling everything to the middle of the field, which is why Deebo got so many targets. SF always feels like they’re at their best when Aiyuk is active.
 

bosockboy

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The 9ers had 4 absolutely critical mishaps.

*CMC fumble on opening drive-takes at least 3 off the board.
*Muffed punt handing them 7.
*Missed PAT.
*Holding call inside the 10 on OT drive.

Remove any one of the first 3 they win.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Romo was saying similar last night and this mentality has never made a lot of sense to me. They ran 31 times. What, was the 32nd suddenly gonna be a 50-yarder? The running game wasn't working; at some point, the solution has to be "less of it" and not "more of it."
At the end of the first half (before their three drives where they only ran once in 9 plays) they ran 4 times for 19 yards. And in their last two scoring drives they ran 8 times for 32 yards.

It's what they do best. Run the ball. They weren't getting stoned. They just didn't rip off any huge runs. But they still gained yards. Those 12 rushes above totaled 51 yards - That's 4.3 yards per carry. Below what they normally get but that's still effective.

Anyway, whatever. I'm just glad it wasn't the Patriots losing. LOL
 

Super Nomario

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At the end of the first half (before their three drives where they only ran once in 9 plays) they ran 4 times for 19 yards. And in their last two scoring drives they ran 8 times for 32 yards.

It's what they do best. Run the ball. They weren't getting stoned. They just didn't rip off any huge runs. But they still gained yards. Those 12 rushes above totaled 51 yards - That's 4.3 yards per carry. Below what they normally get but that's still effective.

Anyway, whatever. I'm just glad it wasn't the Patriots losing. LOL
They averaged 4.8 YPC in the regular season ... which is great! And 8.4 NY/A passing, which is obviously better. Last night they were worse at both, but still doubly effective at passing than rushing.
 

Bergs

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The 9ers had 4 absolutely critical mishaps.

*CMC fumble on opening drive-takes at least 3 off the board.
*Muffed punt handing them 7.
*Missed PAT.
*Holding call inside the 10 on OT drive.

Remove any one of the first 3 they win.
Or, KC wins in regulation because instead of settling for a FG to tie after the miss, Reed goes for it on 4th down and end up with a TD.

But yeah, the turnovers were the difference for the 'niners.
 

jarules1185

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The 9ers had 4 absolutely critical mishaps.

*CMC fumble on opening drive-takes at least 3 off the board.
*Muffed punt handing them 7.
*Missed PAT.
*Holding call inside the 10 on OT drive.

Remove any one of the first 3 they win.
I think it comes more down to the muffed punt and to a lesser degree the PAT, since KC also had an RB fumble on 1st and 10 in even better field position than CMC's, and the SF holding call in OT was only even possible because KC had a defensive holding call a few min earlier that made that drive possible.

On the kickoff-to-start-OT note, to me the best logic for Shanahan kicking off first (not that he actually was thinking this...) was that the SF D just gave up a long drive to Mahomes a couple minutes before at the end of regulation, were probably pretty tired, and would be thrown right back out there if they deferred.
 
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jarules1185

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But you just won't hear much about how lucky KC was on that punt. Yes SF made a bad play but that's just a terribly unlucky thing to happen to them, and a terribly lucky break for KC.
Agreed that KC didn't do anything special to get that fumble, but not sure it was super unlucky for SF. Their special teams player didn't know where the punt was and got hit by it.

As soon as that happens, it's more likely getting recovered by the kicking team, since the return team is mostly blocking rather than heading towards the ball. It's not bad luck if you are clumsy enough to get hit by the punt
 

Matty005

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The 9ers had 4 absolutely critical mishaps.

*CMC fumble on opening drive-takes at least 3 off the board.
*Muffed punt handing them 7.
*Missed PAT.
*Holding call inside the 10 on OT drive.

Remove any one of the first 3 they win.
I think I am wrong, but didn't they convert the 2nd and 12 after the holding play in OT? It ended up being almost exactly where they would have been without the penalty (maybe 1-2 yards back).
 

Cellar-Door

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The 9ers had 4 absolutely critical mishaps.

*CMC fumble on opening drive-takes at least 3 off the board.
*Muffed punt handing them 7.
*Missed PAT.
*Holding call inside the 10 on OT drive.

Remove any one of the first 3 they win.
Sure, conversely if Pacheco doesn't fumble on 1st and goal the Chiefs probably win in regulation.
Also had Mahomes throw a pick, etc.

No team plays perfectly, also on the PAT... if they're up 4 instead of 3 the Chiefs probably try a lot harder to score the TD in regulation over worrying about the clock, and given how that drive was going.....

Every time you lose unless you get blown out you can point to a couple plays that would have flipped it. Of course so can the other team.
 

Bongorific

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The 9ers had 4 absolutely critical mishaps.

*CMC fumble on opening drive-takes at least 3 off the board.
*Muffed punt handing them 7.
*Missed PAT.
*Holding call inside the 10 on OT drive.

Remove any one of the first 3 they win.
You can’t jump to that conclusion though.

Moody shanks an XP attempt low almost into the back of his lineman’s head. SF is up 16-13. Next drive KC has the ball on the SF 6 and kicks a FG on 4th down to tie. Good chance if they’re instead down 4 they run the same play they used in OT and go up 20-17. Who knows what happens then. Or play it out the same way it happened. SF settles for a FG to tie 20-20 and KC kicks a FG to win 23-20 with 2 seconds left in the game.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I think there is way too much weight being placed in the analysis of ~50/50 decisions and roster construction in what was an extremely close game.

I don’t think the SFO play calling decisions were in the same league as in the SEA-NE Super Bowl, and even that goal line pass was defensible.
In a close, one score game, so many things can change the outcome. When you consider the fumble recovery stats from the game - KC lost the ball five times and recovered four of those and they got two SF fumbles - and the score its crazy.

The rushing and passing stats were all pretty close with KC being marginally better but not overwhelmingly.

These two teams were pretty evenly matched. You can certainly argue that decision making or certain plays swung the outcome (I would pay money to see any person arguing that McCloud could have easily fallen on that ball try to re-enact the move they are talking about at game speed - he barely had time to even track that thing) but to me the team with marginally more talent (especially at the most important position) won.

I don't know that its much more complicated than that.
 

The Gray Eagle

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The Unexpected Points blog does a pretty good job of an analytical look at a lot of the stuff being discussed in this thread:
https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/super-bowl-lviii-chiefs-49ers-advanced

Here's their table of the most impactful plays of the game based on expected points added:


They have the running back fumbles basically balancing out, with the fumbled punt being recovered by KC as the biggest play of the game.

On whether it's better to kick off or receive in OT, they think that the advantages and disadvantages pretty much balance out:

It secures a benefit – known as the second mover advantage – for the team that starts overtime by kicking off. Teams kicking off to start overtime will always know what is needed to either extend overtime or win the game when they get the ball back.
While the second mover advantage swings the coin toss benefit closer to 50-50, one key advantage remains for the team that receives the ball first. If the opening two drives of overtime end tied, the team that received the ball first gets the ball again in a sudden-death setting. For example, from 2017-21, the team receiving the ball first in overtime averaged 1.6 possessions per overtime session, compared to 1.1 for the team kicking off. As a result, teams receiving the ball to begin overtime won more games after their first possession than on their opening possession.
There's this opinion on SF's clock management at the end of the half:
Shanahan blew the clock management at the end of the first half. I would have started calling timeouts as early as roughly 1:30 left when the Chiefs converted and got to the 25 yard-line. You put pressure on the Chiefs to waste time and potentially call low-upside plays, or if the Chiefs score quickly you have a chance to answer before giving the ball back to the Chiefs to start the second half. Instead, the 49ers used their first timeout with 20 seconds remaining, and took two of them into halftime when they could have benefited from having a real drive to end the half.
Not sure I 100% agree with all of it, but the blog post has some interesting analytical takes.
 

Al Zarilla

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Agreed that KC didn't do anything special to get that fumble, but not sure it was super unlucky for SF. Their special teams player didn't know where the punt was and got hit by it.

As soon as that happens, it's more likely getting recovered by the kicking team, since the return team is mostly blocking rather than heading towards the ball. It's not bad luck if you are clumsy enough to get hit by the punt
I posted upthread that Edelman and other kick returners have been heard even on TV screaming to get the hell out of there. In other words, I can’t get to it and I don’t want it hitting any of you other guys, becoming a free ball and the other team recovering it. I don’t think Ray Ray did any such thing.
 

BigSoxFan

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I posted upthread that Edelman and other kick returners have been heard even on TV screaming to get the hell out of there. In other words, I can’t get to it and I don’t want it hitting any of you other guys, becoming a free ball and the other team recovering it. I don’t think Ray Ray did any such thing.
Boomer was talking about this on WFAN as well. Sure it’ll continue to be a focal point of ST coaches going forward.
 

Archer1979

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The Niners were there 4 years ago. I know that most of the roster turns over in 4 years, but the coach was there.
I'm not saying tha tShanahan necessarily USED the experience, but KC is obviously more experienced having been there most recently (and frequently for that matter).

Both D looked pretty gassed in the 4th Q and OT. SF was moving the ball well between the 20s and I don't think KC was trying to bend not break that isn't Spags DNA. SF just inexplicably broke down on protection at the absolute worst time of the game on their last offensive play. Slide protection to the right and we are probably talking about the decision to go for 2 today.
Fair point, but KC still had enough gas in the tank to prevent a TD whereas SF did not.

And, don't get me wrong, there were a lot of reasons why KC won last night, but I believe that experience was a factor.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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I don’t really know anything about playing the QB position, but would Purdy have been able to change the protection on that final play once he got a look at the defense at the line?
 

Cellar-Door

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I don’t really know anything about playing the QB position, but would Purdy have been able to change the protection on that final play once he got a look at the defense at the line?
probably, though in the 49ers case their center calls the protections.

Real problem is that while it was a dumb protection design (weird center pop pull to sell a playfake?) the right guard appeared to miss what his assignment was. He slides left to the same guy the LG had, the LT gives a help stab at Jones then slides outside to the guy Kittle chips. Probably the safety was supposed to run free. Instead Jones runs almost free.

Nobody can be 100% sure without the playbook, but Mike Golic Jr thinks the same:
View: https://twitter.com/minakimes/status/1757156585087086635


As does Geoff Schwartz
View: https://twitter.com/geoffschwartz/status/1757067554961453560
 

DJnVa

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I posted upthread that Edelman and other kick returners have been heard even on TV screaming to get the hell out of there. In other words, I can’t get to it and I don’t want it hitting any of you other guys, becoming a free ball and the other team recovering it. I don’t think Ray Ray did any such thing.
The replays showed him motioning. I can't imagine that he'd motion but not yell whatever their word is. Did he try to scoop and not just fall on it or was he just reacting to the way an oblong ball bounces?

EDIT: This guy says "it won't get talked about". I mean, it's kind of a talking point for a lot of folks.

View: https://twitter.com/iam_johnw/status/1756911144550203843
 
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soxhop411

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View: https://twitter.com/cbssportsgang/status/1757231295044682130?s=46

Thats a lot of eyeballs

112 million of those viewers were tuned into the CBSbroadcast — the largest audience ever for a single network. The rest were measured across Paramount+, Nickelodeon, Univision, CBS Sports and NFL digital properties including NFL+. Per Paramount Global, Paramount+ saw record-breaking viewership that made Sunday the most-streamed Super Bowl ever, but exact data regarding streaming views isn’t available.

These figures represent the average number of viewers who were tuned in at any given moment during each game, but Nielsen puts the number of people who viewed any portion of the telecast at 202.4 million, up 10% from last year’s 184 million.
https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/super-bowl-2024-ratings-viewers-1235907666/
The 2024 game is not only the most-watched Super Bowl ever, it is now the second most-watched TV program in history. In first place is the 1969 Apollo 11 moon landing, though that aired across multiple networks. This also means that the Chiefs have played in — and won — the two most-watched Super Bowls of all time.
https://deadline.com/2024/02/super-bowl-lviii-ratings-viewership-1235822973/
 
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Murderer's Crow

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!!!

Enjoy! If you don't enjoy it, I'll reimburse your entire party.

(I won't)
Great place, I think better for a drinking atmosphere. Sushi was about as good as any sushi I’ve had, top 5. Yakitori was good-ish. I can see why you love it.

8 people, with drinks, shitload of food…$380. Cheapest 8 person work dinner I’ve ever had.

thanks!
 

CFB_Rules

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This isn't really analogous though, because in college don't the teams flip which team goes first after each round? (1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1...)
Yes unless you are Deion Sanders.

But the vast vast majority of OT games end after the first OT.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I was just thinking this morning that 49ers fans are lowkey some of the most tormented of football fans over the last generation. They haven't won a Super Bowl in 30 years, they've had large stretches of that time when they've stunk terribly, and while they did make it to 3 Super Bowls in that time, they lost each one in excruciating fashion. Oh and their most promising team got blown up because the head coach and the GM couldn't get along well enough to work together and the owner backed the GM.
 

Humphrey

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Spags going 11-41 as a HC remains one of life's enduring examples of the Peter Principle.
You can’t jump to that conclusion though.

Moody shanks an XP attempt low almost into the back of his lineman’s head. SF is up 16-13. Next drive KC has the ball on the SF 6 and kicks a FG on 4th down to tie. Good chance if they’re instead down 4 they run the same play they used in OT and go up 20-17. Who knows what happens then. Or play it out the same way it happened. SF settles for a FG to tie 20-20 and KC kicks a FG to win 23-20 with 2 seconds left in the game.
The long fg by Buckner had the same trajectory as the blocked PAT, there just wasn't a hand in the right place to block it.
 

Van Everyman

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I was just thinking this morning that 49ers fans are lowkey some of the most tormented of football fans over the last generation. They haven't won a Super Bowl in 30 years, they've had large stretches of that time when they've stunk terribly, and while they did make it to 3 Super Bowls in that time, they lost each one in excruciating fashion. Oh and their most promising team got blown up because the head coach and the GM couldn't get along well enough to work together and the owner backed the GM.
Is Jim Harbaugh -> Jim Tomsula the biggest downgrade in the history of football coaches? It’s got to be at least in the history of football coach Jims.
 

coremiller

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I was just thinking this morning that 49ers fans are lowkey some of the most tormented of football fans over the last generation. They haven't won a Super Bowl in 30 years, they've had large stretches of that time when they've stunk terribly, and while they did make it to 3 Super Bowls in that time, they lost each one in excruciating fashion. Oh and their most promising team got blown up because the head coach and the GM couldn't get along well enough to work together and the owner backed the GM.
It's actually worse than this: View: https://twitter.com/fbgchase/status/1756894503653269862


All but one of those 8 seasons ended in awful losses.

- 1997: Lost at home to GB 23-10. I attended this one, a dreary game in the rain. Frustrating since it was the third year in a row GB knocked them out, but not excruciating.
- 2011: Lost at home to NY in OT. This is the game where Kyle Williams twice fumbled punts, including in OT to let NY kick the winning field goal.
- 2012: Lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens when they had first and goal on the 7-yard line with 2 minutes left, needing a TD to win the game, and couldn't score.
- 2013: Lost 23-17 in Seattle in the game where Richard Sherman tipped away the potential winning TD pass for an INT.
- 2019: Blew a 10-point 4th-quarter lead to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
- 2021: Blew a 10-point 4th-quarter lead to the Rams in the CCG after Jacquaski Tartt dropped the game-sealing INT.
- 2022: Lost in Philly when all the QBs got hurt.
- 2023: Lost the Super Bowl in OT after leading by 10 early in the game and by 3 both with 2 minutes left and in OT.

Now (rightly) no one has much sympathy because they won 5 titles in 14 years immediately before this. And they've had some great wins in the last 30 years: three conference championship games wins (in two of which they came back from 17-0 and 24-7), the Catch II and the Catch III, beating Green Bay five times in the playoffs in a row (including twice in GB), beating Dallas twice. So it's not like the Lions or the Browns or the Bills. But there have been some rough ones.
 

Humphrey

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Didn't realize this until today- as far as the coin toss goes for the overtime, unlike at the beginning of the game; if you want to go last, you DON'T defer, you elect to kick off.

If you defer, or choose a goal to defend (99% irrelevant in a game indoors like Sunday) you give the opponent the choice.

I'm surprised that the NFL even has "defer" as an option, but from what I've read, they do.
 

8slim

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I’ll admit that I had no idea the OTs acted as quarters. I was baffled that KC was letting so much clock run until Nance mentioned with like 20 seconds left that it was a quarter system, not the end of the game.