Is It Over Now? Chiefs/Niners SB Thread

johnmd20

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But it's not just about the extra (4th) down, right? It's just as much about play calling the first 3 downs and the knowledge you've got the extra down to work with. 2nd and long (which KC had at least once on that last drive) becomes harder to defend because the entire playbook is pretty much open at that point knowing they have 3 more plays to get the yardage, not just 2.
It's not even a question. It is absolutely an extra down for a team who knows they have to score or else they lose.
 

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It looks from that clip that Purdy's initial reads are to the right side of the field and Aiyuk is way over on the left side. Even without pressure from Jones I am unsure if Purdy would have enough time to get him the ball on that play.
 

luckiestman

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It's not even a question. It is absolutely an extra down for a team who knows they have to score or else they lose.
But John, in case it not clear to you and everyone talking about it, they don’t get an official 5th down nor does the team that gets the ball first officially only have 3 downs. Let’s just keep our facts straight.
 

Hoya81

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Do coordinators make the HoF? I went and looked at all those statues and it seems like they don’t. 4 SBs as a coordinator is really good particularly the way Spags has done it.
I don't think anyone is in specifically for their work as an assistant, although recent rule changes in the HoF voting process might make it easier. Dick LaBeau was elected in 2010, but as a player (he was an All-Pro DB for the Lions in the 60's and is still 10th in career interceptions with 62).
 

jk333

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Taking the ball can’t possibly be the right decision. If you get stopped the other team can win the game with a field goal. If you don't (get stopped), the other team gets to go for it on 4th downs all the way down the field.

In the 49ers case, getting the defense off the field was important and somewhat mitigating but generally getting the ball 2nd seems like a major advantage.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Taking the ball can’t possibly be the right decision. If you get stopped the other team can win the game with a field goal. If you don't (get stopped), the other team gets to go for it on 4th downs all the way down the field.

In the 49ers case, getting the defense off the field was important and somewhat mitigating but generally getting the ball 2nd seems like a major advantage.
Getting the ball for sudden death third has to be a consideration.
 

jk333

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Getting the ball for sudden death third has to be a consideration.
That has to be weighed against the Chiefs claiming there would be no 3rd possession because they’d go for 2.

It would be interesting to look at numbers for; just not sure there’s enough data to really apply.
 

luckiestman

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Taking the ball can’t possibly be the right decision.
I don’t even know if this is true treating the players like robots; factoring in what happened at the end of the game prior to OT changes things.
 

cshea

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It looks from that clip that Purdy's initial reads are to the right side of the field and Aiyuk is way over on the left side. Even without pressure from Jones I am unsure if Purdy would have enough time to get him the ball on that play.
Maybe but Jennings was open too, which appeared to be his first read. He just couldn't get it there because the protection was all messed up.

It's basically a 4 man rush by the Chiefs. The 9ers end up doubling the nose guard with both guards, the center pulls left, basically leaving a 2 on 1 vs the right side of the 9ers line. The RT doesn't really block anybody and is standing there waiting for someone to come. The RG, 74, comes off the double of the nose guard but it's too late. Purdy has to throw it away.
 

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But it's not just about the extra (4th) down, right? It's just as much about play calling the first 3 downs and the knowledge you've got the extra down to work with. 2nd and long (which KC had at least once on that last drive) becomes harder to defend because the entire playbook is pretty much open at that point knowing they have 3 more plays to get the yardage, not just 2.
This has probably been beaten beyond death by this point, but this really is huge. 3rd and 8 is a very different down when you know you’re going for it on 4th, which makes it very hard to defend.
 

Fishercat

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Tied 16-16 in the fourth; That second down play before the two minute warning and the third down play after the 2:00 minute warning by SAN FRAN was inexcusable.
2nd and 3 - Kittle flat pass for 0 yards.
3rd and 3 - Pass play into the blitz that gets tipped.
4th and 3 - Moody FG is good.

I would have argued to have gone for it on 4th down to ensure Mahomes doesn't get the ball back.
That's a very tough one. What are the odds of Purdy converting that 4th and 3? If they get it, they can safely run the clock down to about 30 seconds (Chiefs had two timeouts) and try for the GW FG, which of course if they hit puts them in an amazing spot. However, not converting it gives Mahomes two minutes, two timeouts, to get 30ish yards to hit Butker's range which felt like it's game over in that spot. I think the kick was defensible - give the D more room to defend with a lead.
 

tims4wins

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The subject is that there's no particular skill to recovering fumbles. It's random.
Generally yes. But isn’t it more likely that trying to fall on the ball is more likely to result in a recovery than an attempted scoop? Not all fumble situations are the same.
 
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The subject is that there's no particular skill to recovering fumbles. It's random.
is this true in every case? Most fumble recoveries are random but certainly there is an element of having awareness (so you can be the first guy diving at the loose ball) and making the right play (fall on it instead of trying to scoop and score) which go back to coaching and “football IQ”
 

Fishercat

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Also somewhat dependent on the nature of where the fumble happens. I have to imagine a muffed snap is far more likely to be recovered by the offense - with skill players and linemen still in the area and the QB being most aware of what is happening - than a WR fumbling 30 yards downfield where the nearest guys are likely opposing DBs and Safeties and the guy fumbling is getting taken out by the nearest defender.

I feel like there's gotta be research or reporting on this - even if it's something noisy like fumbles to fumbles lost ratio. Tom Brady has 134 fumbles in his career and only lost 48 of them. Mahomes has 36 fumbles and only lost 13. Pretty sure Manning is below 50% on that. Whereas someone like Adrian Peterson lost 29 of his 49 fumbles at RB. Though I suspect there would be a lot of noise to try and get through and when all of that got cleared out, there's some spectrum of risky vs. "safe" fumbles as well as teams who are coached to be somewhat aware to all of this or practice aggressive vs. safe behaviors in game.
 
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Tony C

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part of the reason the D was gassed was that stretch of 3 straight 3 and outs where they had 8 passes and 1 run. The 3rd quarter offensive playcalling was abysmal.

Kittle being underutilized in the pass game is also a big issue. He got banged up towards the end but 3 targets, 2 catches for 4 yards is underwhelming to be kind and it seems to be a trend for them in the playoffs.
So the take home message is they should have thrown more (to Kittle) and run more. Hmm....not sure how that computes. Oh, throw less to Samuel, Aiyuk, et al? Can imagine the reaction that would have received -- Shanny turtlng, etc.

Honestly Purdy had amazing turnover luck this year, even average turnover luck and he looks worse, if he gets a swing the other way season....
Feels like this stat is a bit inflated. I think at least three of these were ones SF had no chance to recover (very briefly fumbled) - did those low snaps count as a couple?

Turnovers were even 2-2.
Complaints about TO luck are really silly.
 

Al Zarilla

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is this true in every case? Most fumble recoveries are random but certainly there is an element of having awareness (so you can be the first guy diving at the loose ball) and making the right play (fall on it instead of trying to scoop and score) which go back to coaching and “football IQ”
Our high school football coach wouldn’t even let us return a punt for a game (he put nobody back on punts after we fumbled one) and he went totally berserk if somebody tried the scoop and score (Ray-Ray McCloud). Yeah, these are pros and should know better. FALL ON IT! Well, if there’s no enemy players around…
 

SemperFidelisSox

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This is a tough one...the last 49ers play, Aiyuk dusts Snead and is wide open but they fuck up the protection and let Chris Jones come in free which forces Purdy to rush and throw the incompletion.
I know teams only get two timeouts in OT, but that was a spot where Shanahan should have used one. Make sure you have the right call and protection for the most important 3rd down of the game.
 

CFB_Rules

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Good point and also to @SirPsychoSquints post above. Still, I think getting the ball 2nd has to be a pretty sizable advantage.
You would think, but historically in the college OT system the team that goes second has a lower winning percentage all time.

Teams still always elect to go second.
 

PedroKsBambino

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That has to be weighed against the Chiefs claiming there would be no 3rd possession because they’d go for 2.

It would be interesting to look at numbers for; just not sure there’s enough data to really apply.
I'd love to know what Belichick would have done---becuase he likely had this scenario run in the pre-season through some 10,000 rep monte carlo simulation.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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So the take home message is they should have thrown more (to Kittle) and run more. Hmm....not sure how that computes. Oh, throw less to Samuel, Aiyuk, et al? Can imagine the reaction that would have received -- Shanny turtlng, etc.
I will say that this was one reason I always appreciated Pete Carroll in Seattle, because his teams would stick to their bread and butter no matter what (this doesn't include the play that I know y'all will bring up, but that's a one-off, not a game-plan philosophy). In the NFCCG against the 49ers all those years ago, the offense wasn't doing shit but they kept running the ball in the third quarter because that was what had gotten them there and eventually it opened everything up.

The 49ers were world beaters on offense because of their multi-faceted attack, but also because of CMC's ability ... and they completely went away from him in the third quarter. It made no sense. It was also something that irritated me about the Ravens game, because they fell behind and instead of sticking to their running game and defense, they tried to air it out and we all saw what happened.

Anyway, Shanahan is obviously brilliant, but he out-thinks himself in the SB or something. Tries to become too tricky.
 

lexrageorge

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Just fall on it (that’s probably what you meant by subject beaten to death).
I've seen this mentioned a few times. Watch the full speed replay; the ball was bouncing wildly and successfully falling on it would be as difficult if not more so than successfully picking it up.

The fault was on the SF player that was blocking; he needs to know where the ball is going to land and not let the ball hit his foot.
 

BaseballJones

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By the way, critics of the Pats have long said that the Pats had tons of luck in winning those Super Bowls. And of course, they did get some good breaks along the way. But you just won't hear much about how lucky KC was on that punt. Yes SF made a bad play but that's just a terribly unlucky thing to happen to them, and a terribly lucky break for KC. It was an enormous play in the game. But Mahomes, Mahomes, Mahomes, blah blah blah.
 

trekfan55

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That's a very tough one. What are the odds of Purdy converting that 4th and 3? If they get it, they can safely run the clock down to about 30 seconds (Chiefs had two timeouts) and try for the GW FG, which of course if they hit puts them in an amazing spot. However, not converting it gives Mahomes two minutes, two timeouts, to get 30ish yards to hit Butker's range which felt like it's game over in that spot. I think the kick was defensible - give the D more room to defend with a lead.
Maybe a coach like Dan Campbell goes for it on 4th and 3, but I really think they blew it big time on 2nd and 3rd and short in that spot. That was the game. Instead we see Mahomes drive down the field vs an exhausted defense. And because they took a couple of extra seconds the game did not end in regulation (no way they miss another shot at the end zone IMO).
 

Al Zarilla

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By the way, critics of the Pats have long said that the Pats had tons of luck in winning those Super Bowls. And of course, they did get some good breaks along the way. But you just won't hear much about how lucky KC was on that punt. Yes SF made a bad play but that's just a terribly unlucky thing to happen to them, and a terribly lucky break for KC. It was an enormous play in the game. But Mahomes, Mahomes, Mahomes, blah blah blah.
Well, I remember Julian screaming get away, get away on punts he couldn’t field or fair catch so that a teammate wouldn’t touch the ball inadvertently. Did Ray-Ray do anything like that? I have the game on DVR, but I don’t know if I have the stomach to look at it (puke). Maybe later.
 

ShaneTrot

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I was amazed that SF didn't try to run the ball at the beginning of the third quarter. Shanahan is a pretty smart guy, were the Chiefs loading the box and daring him to throw? I listened to Bill Simmons' podcast this morning, Sal and Bill thought Purdy played a good game. I thought he was OK, he came out playing well, made some nice plays here and there but he missed guys or was hurried in the second half and OT.
 

Fishercat

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Well, I remember Julian screaming get away, get away on punts he couldn’t field or fair catch so that another player wouldn’t touch the ball inadvertently. Did Ray-Ray do anything like that? I have the game on DVR, but I don’t know if I have the stomach to look at it (puke). Maybe later.
That's sort of the midground that exists here. Was that a very lucky break for KC? Absolutely. I doubt their punter was aiming for the offensive blocker or anything. But you also have to imagine that one of the key responsibilities on special teams is to not be in a position where the ball has a chance of touching you if you're not the PR/KR and that someone's role is to yell at the guy to get the hell out if it's coming his way. It's possible this was just sheer dumb luck and SF did it all right and it happened but I feel like that very rarely happens to stronger ST teams.
 

Curt S Loew

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That's a very tough one. What are the odds of Purdy converting that 4th and 3? If they get it, they can safely run the clock down to about 30 seconds (Chiefs had two timeouts) and try for the GW FG, which of course if they hit puts them in an amazing spot.
And wins me 250 bucks! No way that was happening.
 

Fishercat

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I was amazed that SF didn't try to run the ball at the beginning of the third quarter. Shanahan is a pretty smart guy, were the Chiefs loading the box and daring him to throw? I listened to Bill Simmons' podcast this morning, Sal and Bill thought Purdy played a good game. I thought he was OK, he came out playing well, made some nice plays here and there but he missed guys or was hurried in the second half and OT.
The entire third quarter was shocking. They had three drives in the third quarter for a total of 3:44 in game time over nine plays for negative 2 yards. I don't know what happened at half time but for a full quarter they looked like the Patriots at their worst, just completely unable to do anything - with one rushing attempt by a non-QB when you have that talent base is absolutely wild.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Our high school football coach wouldn’t even let us return a punt for a game (he put nobody back on punts after we fumbled one) and he went totally berserk if somebody tried the scoop and score (Ray-Ray McCloud). Yeah, these are pros and should know better. FALL ON IT! Well, if there’s no enemy players around…
That's how I was coached as well (and probably most people in HS).

Still, there's been a ton of research on this topic. I dont have the interest to look for links, but essentially there are certain fumble types that lend themselves to being recovered slightly more frequently by one side or the other (ie. Fumbles behind the LOS, fumbles 20 yards past the LOS, etc). But other than that, nobody has found much of a correlation between fumble recovery and anything else.

As far as having some kind of natural ability to recover fumbles? I really don't think so. Think about Dennis Rodman. He's one of the best pure rebounders to ever play in the NBA. He's talked about how he spent hundreds/thousands of hours literally just watching shots to try and understand where the ball might go based on all the circumstances involved. Now remove the ability to know when to look for the ball, where to look for a ball, focusing entirely on something else (opposed to everyone staring at a basketball), and make the ball funky shape instead of a circle. It's just not a skill worth trying to hone, and that's if it even would help anyway.
 

Archer1979

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Long thread so this point may have been lost along the way... Super Bowl experience matters. I found this game quite similar in theme to the 28 - 3 SB. 49er's D was gassed in the second half (as was Atlanta's toward the end of the third quarter). KC's wasn't. They knew how to pace themselves. The long halftime is unique to the Super Bowl and requires some experience as well. While SF was absolutely dominant in the first half, they expended most of what they had in the tank for the game. The 54th man on the roster for Super Bowl teams is experience.
 

Al Zarilla

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That's how I was coached as well (and probably most people in HS).

Still, there's been a ton of research on this topic. I dont have the interest to look for links, but essentially there are certain fumble types that lend themselves to being recovered slightly more frequently by one side or the other (ie. Fumbles behind the LOS, fumbles 20 yards past the LOS, etc). But other than that, nobody has found much of a correlation between fumble recovery and anything else.

As far as having some kind of natural ability to recover fumbles? I really don't think so. Think about Dennis Rodman. He's one of the best pure rebounders to ever play in the NBA. He's talked about how he spent hundreds/thousands of hours literally just watching shots to try and understand where the ball might go based on all the circumstances involved. Now remove the ability to know when to look for the ball, where to look for a ball, focusing entirely on something else (opposed to everyone staring at a basketball), and make the ball funky shape instead of a circle. It's just not a skill worth trying to hone, and that's if it even would help anyway.
“ You never know how the ball’s gonna bounce in football.” Part of an old song?
 

tims4wins

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Long thread so this point may have been lost along the way... Super Bowl experience matters. I found this game quite similar in theme to the 28 - 3 SB. 49er's D was gassed in the second half (as was Atlanta's toward the end of the third quarter). KC's wasn't. They knew how to pace themselves. The long halftime is unique to the Super Bowl and requires some experience as well. While SF was absolutely dominant in the first half, they expended most of what they had in the tank for the game. The 54th man on the roster for Super Bowl teams is experience.
The Niners were there 4 years ago. I know that most of the roster turns over in 4 years, but the coach was there.
 

Super Nomario

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I'm actually wondering if we have reached the point with KC and Mahomes that teams feel like - regardless of how the game is actually going - they need to "outscore" (a euphemism for putting up a lot of points) Mahomes. Which is why, even when they're run-dominant teams and KC has a mediocre-at-best run defense, they insist on throwing.

This despite the fact that KC's offense this year was #15 in points, and in the playoffs scored 26, 27, and 17 points vs Mia, Buf, and Bal. And just 19 in regulation vs SF.

In their last 13 games of the season (including playoffs), going into the Super Bowl, they scored the following points:

9, 21, 17, 31, 19, 17, 27, 14, 25, 13, 26, 27, 17 = 263 points = 20.2 points per game

This was no offensive juggernaut. Not remotely like the KC teams of past years. You can beat them by keeping the score low and manageable.

Miami's rushing attack: #6 in yards per game, #1 in y/att. Ran the ball 20 times vs KC in cold weather. Tua threw 39 times.
Buffalo's rushing attack: #7 in yards per game, #8 in y/att. Ran the ball 39 times vs KC. Allen threw 39 times. (at least they tried!)
Baltimore's rushing attack: #1 in yards per game, #3 in y/att. Ran the ball 16 times vs KC (just like 10-11 times on non-scrambles). Jackson threw 37 times.
San Fran's rushing attack: #3 in yards per game, #4 in y/att. Ran the ball 31 times vs KC. Purdy threw 39 times.

Just unfathomable. All four teams - their best chance to beat KC was to run, run, run, run, run. And only Buffalo actually really gave it a legit effort.
The 49ers ran a good amount last night. 31 is a lot of rush attempts. But they did not run effectively - 3.5 yards per carry, long run of 11 yards. They averaged double that average gain throwing the ball.
 

BaseballJones

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The entire third quarter was shocking. They had three drives in the third quarter for a total of 3:44 in game time over nine plays for negative 2 yards. I don't know what happened at half time but for a full quarter they looked like the Patriots at their worst, just completely unable to do anything - with one rushing attempt by a non-QB when you have that talent base is absolutely wild.
Chiefs' field position in the first three possessions of the third quarter:

KC 44
- Purdy incomplete pass
- false start (-5 yds)
- Purdy incomplete pass
- Purdy 4 yard scramble
- punt

SF 36
- Purdy complete pass for -8 yards
- Purdy complete pass for 7 yards
- Purdy incomplete pass
- punt

SF 25
- McCaffrey 0 yd run
- Purdy incomplete pass
- Purdy incomplete pass
- punt

That's really good, pretty good, and average field position. It's not like they were on KC's 25, but it's also not like they were buried in their own end. Pretty decent field position overall, and they did absolutely nothing with it. Nine offensive plays. One run by McCaffrey. One scramble by Purdy. (so two runs for 4 total yards) Seven passes for a total of -1 yard. One penalty for -5 yards. Nine offensive plays, a total of -2 yards.

KC, meanwhile, scored 10 unanswered points to go from being down 10-3 to up 13-10.
 

BaseballJones

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The 49ers ran a good amount last night. 31 is a lot of rush attempts. But they did not run effectively - 3.5 yards per carry, long run of 11 yards. They averaged double that average gain throwing the ball.
They abandoned the run in the third quarter, which is what we've been referring to here. That was the period in the game where things turned around, and it was in large part to SF running 9 offensive plays on three straight possessions, only one of which was a designed run play.
 

Super Nomario

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They abandoned the run in the third quarter, which is what we've been referring to here. That was the period in the game where things turned around, and it was in large part to SF running 9 offensive plays on three straight possessions, only one of which was a designed run play.
I just don't think it's fair to criticize them from moving away from the run game when the run game wasn't working.
 

j44thor

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Long thread so this point may have been lost along the way... Super Bowl experience matters. I found this game quite similar in theme to the 28 - 3 SB. 49er's D was gassed in the second half (as was Atlanta's toward the end of the third quarter). KC's wasn't. They knew how to pace themselves. The long halftime is unique to the Super Bowl and requires some experience as well. While SF was absolutely dominant in the first half, they expended most of what they had in the tank for the game. The 54th man on the roster for Super Bowl teams is experience.
Both D looked pretty gassed in the 4th Q and OT. SF was moving the ball well between the 20s and I don't think KC was trying to bend not break that isn't Spags DNA. SF just inexplicably broke down on protection at the absolute worst time of the game on their last offensive play. Slide protection to the right and we are probably talking about the decision to go for 2 today.
 

shawnrbu

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They abandoned the run in the third quarter, which is what we've been referring to here. That was the period in the game where things turned around, and it was in large part to SF running 9 offensive plays on three straight possessions, only one of which was a designed run play.
The turnover on the punt was the bigger deal. Up until that point, there were 7 drives in the 3rd Quarter. Each team had three 3 and outs and the Chiefs scored on a 57 yard field goal.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/lists/49ers-super-bowl-roster-2019-2023-george-kittle-nick-bosa/
Apparently only 11 players held over from the 2019 team.

A quick look at Football Ref and I think there were 14 holdovers between the 2014 Pats and the 2018 team.
Allen, Brady, Cannon, Chung, Develin, Ebner, Edelman, Gostkowski, Gronk, Harmon, Hightower, McCourty, Slater, White.

The starting QB, FB, WR, TE, RT, LB, both Safeties, K, P.

Pretty key group.

Edit: Also 4 out of 6 captains, one from each of the three phases.