If we're sellers, who do we sell?

[Al Zarilla]

Sandoval's AVG/OBP/SLG are below last year's by exactly 9, 1, and 6 points. Fielding has stunk but no reason to think that's anything more than a fluke.

You must have me on ignore. For the severalth time, when he's at the upper end of his weight cycle, which he is now, or is approaching now, his fielding goes to shit. The Giants benched him for it several times. Of course, back then, he wasn't the far overpaid player he is now. 

 

[grimshaw]

 
Who is your DH next year? I would bet that Panda ends up moving to first in two year, furthermore I don't think he hits enough to be a full-time designated hitter. 

They don't need a full time DH anymore unless they fuck up a contract.  In fact, I hope they move far away from that moving forward.

 

[dynomite]

 
The bigger problem is that that AVG/OBP/SLG isn't $95m good. I'd almost rather him be totally in the tank relative to last year because at least I'd have hope of some upside. If a 105-110 wRC+ is his ceiling...

I still refuse to criticize the front office (we're within the decade grace period) but this was my question all along.

I just would be interested to hear Ben explain: What does Panda do well, really? And why is it worth the money and spot at a crucial offensive and defensive position?

 

[The X Man Cometh]

I still refuse to criticize the front office (we're within the decade grace period) but this was my question all along.

I just would be interested to hear Ben explain: What does Panda do well, really? And why is it worth the money and spot at a crucial offensive and defensive position?

The flip side is what does he do badly?

I think Ben would tell you that Panda, based on age and stats, isn't going to be a bad player. And being the best option that costs only money, he represents someone who is overpaid in many scenarios but never overly so. Not a home run but a double given his combo of offensive and defensive chops and lack of having to give up prospects.

 

[dynomite]

The flip side is what does he do badly?

I think Ben would tell you that Panda, based on age and stats, isn't going to be a bad player. And being the best option that costs only money, he represents someone who is overpaid in many scenarios but never overly so. Not a home run but a double given his combo of offensive and defensive chops and lack of having to give up prospects.

I do think this gets at a fundamental question about roster construction, particularly regarding the 2015 Red Sox: how many guys should a team have who aren't particularly good or bad at anything?

It's a sort of bizarre question, but I think it gets at some of the debate over players like Miley and Panda.

 

[moondog80]

 
The bigger problem is that that AVG/OBP/SLG isn't $95m good. I'd almost rather him be totally in the tank relative to last year because at least I'd have hope of some upside. If a 105-110 wRC+ is his ceiling...

On the free agent market, it's pretty close to 95 mil good. Playing in free agency almost always means the player will be "overpaid". But a high payroll is only an advantage if you use it, and free agecny is pretty much the only way to do that.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
The lineup would be worse in this scenario, sure. But pitching would go from a weakness to a strength. And defense would go from a weakness to a strength. Its pretty easy to see a better ballclub overall if you subtract Ramirez and Sandoval and add Cueto and Hamels.
I'm not saying we should do it. The last thing I'd want to do is trade position player prospects for Hamels. The cost would be enormous. But the ballclub would certainly be better, maybe not at selling animal shaped hats or scoring runs but winning games. And frankly, at 29-39 in one of the game's weaker divisions, and performing above Pythagorean expectation, better is an awfully low bar to clear.

The AL east currently has teams with the third, fourth, seventh and eighth best records in the league. I don't think the division is as weak as many people think it is.

 

[tims4wins]

The AL east currently has teams with the third, fourth, seventh and eighth best records in the league. I don't think the division is as weak as many people think it is.

Overall the division has the second best record in all of MLB (10 over .500). NL Central is first at 13 over

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, the AL East is a collective 57-30 in June (49-20 for the four non-BOS teams), they're back to the best division in baseball as of now. Collective run differential:

AL East: +106
AL Central: -29
AL West: +46
NL East: -166
NL Central: +56
NL West: -13

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Well yeah, they all get to play the Sox 18 times.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(yes, I know)

 

[jscola85]

I'd put the roster in the following buckets:
 
Not getting traded under almost any circumstances
Ortiz - can block trade, public statements
Pedroia - can block trade, signed below-market deal to stay in Boston
Rodriguez - multiple years of control, early signs of potential dominance
Betts - have already turned down multiple offers, on pace for 3+ WAR season
Bogaerts - see Betts
Porcello - contract vs. performance to date makes this one highly unlikely - would be ultimate sell-low
Sandoval - contract is tough but more importantly, Sox have zero options to replace him right now
Craig - just a sunk cost at this point IMO
 
Unlikely to trade, but possible
Ramirez - see Porcello, but could see a team viewing him with enough upside to take a risk if Sox pay part of freight
Miley - contract is reasonable but market for underperforming #4 starters isn't all that strong
Swihart - struggles to date in MLB notwithstanding, he's still got tons of upside and team control at a premium position
Victorino - zero value right now.  Seems like a prime candidate for an August waiver deal
Rusney - huge contract but SSS and I suspect scouts still see oodles of latent talent/athleticism
Barnes - seems like he has a real future as a late-inning relief ace on the cheap, but not someone I'd refuse to include in the right deal
 
On the fence
Tazawa - getting more expensive, but a very reliable performer (against everyone but Toronto, at least)
Holt - worth more to us than others, even if part of 2015 performance is just the BABIP gods favoring him
Kelly - some team could see him as the next Wade Davis but probably not getting much for him
Hanigan - cheap, fills a role, but if we're going nowhere it's not like he's a part of the future
Layne - multiple years of control, but also the kind of guy who could fetch a good prospect to a desperate contender at the deadline
Wright - minimal trade value, but has usefulness to Sox as innings eater either for spot starts or mop-up duty
 
Hope they're renting, not owning
Buchholz - team option next year enhances value; may be best realistic option for starter available at deadline
Ogando - flip him for what you can get
Breslow - probably should just get cut loose to give someone like Barnes, Hembree or Aro a chance
Uehara - I love you Koji, but it's time to part ways
Napoli - same as Buchholz for 1B/DH options for contenders
Ross - see Breslow, except we can just option him down to AAA
 
I would suspect if the team continues to founder, maybe only 1-2 of the last category are still on the 40-man by September, and about half of the penultimate bucket will be gone, and then maybe 1 of the untradeable/unlikely bucket players will get moved.  This isn't anything others have highlighted, just putting it on one post helped me recognize this roster doesn't have a ton of flexibility to clean house right now.  Some of the retooling will simply have to come from the guys already here just playing better, or the team taking some big lumps for the next year or two.

 

[Toe Nash]

I don't think they have much to trade unless they pull off a big deal with one of the long-term contracts. And that seems unlikely at this point -- they'd more than likely be selling low and not many teams can take on those huge commitments anyway, or they had the opportunity and passed on it six months ago.
 
I am assuming they are attempting to compete basically every year. So:
-Buchholz is possible but his contract is a good deal and would leave a hole in the rotation for 2016. Yeah, he's not durable but at his best he's (dare I say it) an ace and they're not going to be able to acquire someone of that caliber easily.
-If they wouldn't deal Koji last year, not sure why they would deal him this year. If they're competing in 2016 they don't have anyone who could replace him (maybe Tazawa, but then who replaces Tazawa?). If some of the pen guys like Layne or Oganda were looking better this might be a different story but they haven't.
-Napoli can go, but as noted outside of basically one week he hasn't been any good. A lottery ticket is fine, but we're not getting much.
 
The more I think about it the best trade chip is Holt. He's not getting a starting job here unless Castillo sucks and while the versatility is nice I think he can start somewhere else. I bet that and the years of control makes him a pretty attractive option. I mean, the problem is if all goes well, Panda starts hitting LHP OK, Hanley stays healthy, Castillo becomes a solid starter, and Holt's not playing very much. This year not much has gone well except him, so he's playing a lot, but that isn't the long-term plan. There is a reason why guys who can play mutiple positions well and hit are few and far between -- usually they get a starting job somewhere and stick to one position (at least for one season).

 

[czar]

On the free agent market, it's pretty close to 95 mil good. Playing in free agency almost always means the player will be "overpaid". But a high payroll is only an advantage if you use it, and free agecny is pretty much the only way to do that.

 
Perhaps, but I'd argue paying 5/$95 for a guy who had been worth ~$35-40 over his last 3 years (in the prime of his career) was money that could have been better spent elsewhere, especially when the team had 12 hours before doled out a ton of money to a past-prime, CI-only bat who conceivably could have played 3B.
 
IOW, maybe it's the going rate for FA, but if you have to overpay, I'd rather overpay on upside (or at least, in a guy like Lester's case, front-half performance).

 

[czar]

The AL east currently has teams with the third, fourth, seventh and eighth best records in the league. I don't think the division is as weak as many people think it is.

 
 

Overall the division has the second best record in all of MLB (10 over .500). NL Central is first at 13 over

 
 

Yeah, the AL East is a collective 57-30 in June (49-20 for the four non-BOS teams), they're back to the best division in baseball as of now. Collective run differential:

AL East: +106
AL Central: -29
AL West: +46
NL East: -166
NL Central: +56
NL West: -13

 
Shh. This ruins Buster Olney's narrative.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

The more I think about it, the more I think they should mostly stand pat unless someone wants to overpay for Uehara or Tazawa (like Rodriguez-for-Miller level of overpay). Rebooting the roster at the first sign of trouble doesn't seem like a great long-term strategy, particularly since I think Sandoval and Ramirez are playing hurt right now. Stay patient for the rest of the year, maybe those guys get healthy, and maybe the team can bring its record back up to the realm of respectability and - sorry to drift into the realm of emotions for you - give the youngsters some confidence to build on going into next year.

 

[Harry Hooper]

The Vazquez-Swihart situation is perhaps the most important and interesting roster construction piece to be dealt with, albeit maybe not in the next 2-3 months. If part of the logic of bringing in Sandoval and Ramirez was to help offset Vazquez's minimal bat, does anything change if Swihart is the main C in 2016?

 

[jimbobim]

I'd put the roster in the following buckets:
 
Not getting traded under almost any circumstances
Ortiz - can block trade, public statements
Pedroia - can block trade, signed below-market deal to stay in Boston
Rodriguez - multiple years of control, early signs of potential dominance
Betts - have already turned down multiple offers, on pace for 3+ WAR season
Bogaerts - see Betts
Porcello - contract vs. performance to date makes this one highly unlikely - would be ultimate sell-low
Sandoval - contract is tough but more importantly, Sox have zero options to replace him right now
Craig - just a sunk cost at this point IMO
 
Unlikely to trade, but possible
Ramirez - see Porcello, but could see a team viewing him with enough upside to take a risk if Sox pay part of freight
Miley - contract is reasonable but market for underperforming #4 starters isn't all that strong
Swihart - struggles to date in MLB notwithstanding, he's still got tons of upside and team control at a premium position
Victorino - zero value right now.  Seems like a prime candidate for an August waiver deal
Rusney - huge contract but SSS and I suspect scouts still see oodles of latent talent/athleticism
Barnes - seems like he has a real future as a late-inning relief ace on the cheap, but not someone I'd refuse to include in the right deal
 
On the fence
Tazawa - getting more expensive, but a very reliable performer (against everyone but Toronto, at least)
Holt - worth more to us than others, even if part of 2015 performance is just the BABIP gods favoring him
Kelly - some team could see him as the next Wade Davis but probably not getting much for him
Hanigan - cheap, fills a role, but if we're going nowhere it's not like he's a part of the future
Layne - multiple years of control, but also the kind of guy who could fetch a good prospect to a desperate contender at the deadline
Wright - minimal trade value, but has usefulness to Sox as innings eater either for spot starts or mop-up duty
 
Hope they're renting, not owning
Buchholz - team option next year enhances value; may be best realistic option for starter available at deadline
Ogando - flip him for what you can get
Breslow - probably should just get cut loose to give someone like Barnes, Hembree or Aro a chance
Uehara - I love you Koji, but it's time to part ways
Napoli - same as Buchholz for 1B/DH options for contenders
Ross - see Breslow, except we can just option him down to AAA
 
I would suspect if the team continues to founder, maybe only 1-2 of the last category are still on the 40-man by September, and about half of the penultimate bucket will be gone, and then maybe 1 of the untradeable/unlikely bucket players will get moved.  This isn't anything others have highlighted, just putting it on one post helped me recognize this roster doesn't have a ton of flexibility to clean house right now.  Some of the retooling will simply have to come from the guys already here just playing better, or the team taking some big lumps for the next year or two.

This is an excellent post and breakdown. I think Holt would get some package in comparison to Zobrist right now because he's had more then some consistent line ball hot streaks that make me think he could be very valuable unlike Inglesias BABIP love affair of infield hits . I also would try and trade Swihart and maybe Denvers and or one of/ ( w/o Denvers two of johnson owens jbj) to the Brewers for Lucroy. I think the team with Napoli and Ortiz taking significant steps backward needs another All Star controllable talent performing that way now.
 
And yes I know Swihart and Denvers could both do that, but I think the system is healthy enough to trade away some of it's top performers for ML production. Problem is All Star position players are very hard to get. Maybe as elusive as aces.   

 

[ji oh]

This is an excellent post and breakdown. I think Holt would get some package in comparison to Zobrist right now because he's had more then some consistent line ball hot streaks that make me think he could be very valuable unlike Inglesias BABIP love affair of infield hits . I also would try and trade Swihart and maybe Denvers and or one of/ ( w/o Denvers two of johnson owens jbj) to the Brewers for Lucroy. I think the team with Napoli and Ortiz taking significant steps backward needs another All Star controllable talent performing that way now.
 
And yes I know Swihart and Denvers could both do that, but I think the system is healthy enough to trade away some of it's top performers for ML production. Problem is All Star position players are very hard to get. Maybe as elusive as aces.   

 I don't think we should trade Denvers.  He was so good in Gilligan's Island and Dobie Gillis.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I assume you mean Devers? The guy that Law just named the #9 prospect in the minors? You want to trade him and Swihart for two years of control of Lucroy?

Just....no. No.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Devers, Margot, Moncada, Rodriguez, Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Vazquez and Johnson are all untouchable. None of them are going anywhere in a trade.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Johnson is certainly not untouchable. The rest probably are, at least until Vazquez shows he's healthy

 

[InsideTheParker]

 
The more I think about it the best trade chip is Holt. He's not getting a starting job here unless Castillo sucks and while the versatility is nice I think he can start somewhere else. I bet that and the years of control makes him a pretty attractive option. I mean, the problem is if all goes well, Panda starts hitting LHP OK, Hanley stays healthy, Castillo becomes a solid starter, and Holt's not playing very much. This year not much has gone well except him, so he's playing a lot, but that isn't the long-term plan. There is a reason why guys who can play mutiple positions well and hit are few and far between -- usually they get a starting job somewhere and stick to one position (at least for one season).

What player are you hoping to get for Holt and why would that player bring more value to the team? Zobrist got the Rays Jaso and a couple of minor leaguers. Would a haul like that improve the Boston Red Sox?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Johnson is certainly not untouchable. The rest probably are, at least until Vazquez shows he's healthy

Id like to know why Johnson is up for grabs. What kind of deal do you think would make Cherington give him away? If the other top prospects are off limits that means you'd be including him in a deal with major league players. Certainly you wouldn't put him in a deal to get a player like Napoli out of town. So does that mean you're shipping a more prominent player out of town?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Id like to know why Johnson is up for grabs. What kind of deal do you think would make Cherington give him away? If the other top prospects are off limits that means you'd be including him in a deal with major league players. Certainly you wouldn't put him in a deal to get a player like Napoli out of town. So does that mean you're shipping a more prominent player out of town?

I would put him in a Hamels deal. It seems like him Margot and one or two others could probably get the deal done. His contract looks really good these days. Build for 2016 don't blow it up.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

Trade the farm for Sale and hope the offense fixes itself. For this year I mean.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Id like to know why Johnson is up for grabs. What kind of deal do you think would make Cherington give him away? If the other top prospects are off limits that means you'd be including him in a deal with major league players. Certainly you wouldn't put him in a deal to get a player like Napoli out of town. So does that mean you're shipping a more prominent player out of town?

Not untouchable doesn't really mean the same thing as "up for grabs". Johnson looks like he will probably be a useful major league player he isn't someone you need to get rid of but in the right deal he absolutely could be had.

 

[derekson]

This is an excellent post and breakdown. I think Holt would get some package in comparison to Zobrist right now because he's had more then some consistent line ball hot streaks that make me think he could be very valuable unlike Inglesias BABIP love affair of infield hits . I also would try and trade Swihart and maybe Denvers and or one of/ ( w/o Denvers two of johnson owens jbj) to the Brewers for Lucroy. I think the team with Napoli and Ortiz taking significant steps backward needs another All Star controllable talent performing that way now.
 
And yes I know Swihart and Denvers could both do that, but I think the system is healthy enough to trade away some of it's top performers for ML production. Problem is All Star position players are very hard to get. Maybe as elusive as aces.   

 
You realize that "Inglesias" [sic] has  hit over .300 for the Tigers since coming back healthy this year, and is batting .327 with a 116 OPS+ while playing plus defense at shortstop? Maybe ditching him for a season and a half of an overpaid league average starting pitcher wasn't the smartest move, especially since it lead to a hole on the left side of the infield that resulted in overpaying Sandoval?

 

[soxhop411]

 
You realize that "Inglesias" [sic] has  hit over .300 for the Tigers since coming back healthy this year, and is batting .327 with a 116 OPS+ while playing plus defense at shortstop? Maybe ditching him for a season and a half of an overpaid league average starting pitcher wasn't the smartest move, especially since it lead to a hole on the left side of the infield that resulted in overpaying Sandoval?

Peavy helped us win the World Series. So I take that trade

 

[RedOctober3829]

Not untouchable doesn't really mean the same thing as "up for grabs". Johnson looks like he will probably be a useful major league player he isn't someone you need to get rid of but in the right deal he absolutely could be had.

I know what that means.  I'm asking what the right deal would be to give Johnson up.  If they aren't doing a prospects-for-major league player deal, then what is Johnson going to be moved for?

 

[MuzzyField]

Peavy helped us win the World Series. So I take that trade

helped and essential aren't the same.

 

[Byrdbrain]

I know what that means.  I'm asking what the right deal would be to give Johnson up.  If they aren't doing a prospects-for-major league player deal, then what is Johnson going to be moved for?

You're the one that took someone saying Johnson wasn't untouchable to mean he was up for grabs, I put quotation marks around those words because I was quoting you.
I doubt they will move him but I just don't think he should be off the table. He could be included in a package to bring a ML player who has a few years left on his contract(Hamels or Sale have been mentioned already) and that would be fine. Theoretically he could go with someone like Napoli which would mean the Sox either wouldn't need to cover any salary or you would get a better return but I highly doubt that would happen.

 

[TimScribble]

Not that anyone needed convincing that Mookie was an untouchable, but he is killing it since the injury.

@JeffPassan: Another home run for Mookie Betts. In the last week, he is 17 for 29 with two homers, seven RBIs, a .586/.586/.966 slash and one strikeout.

 

[Toe Nash]

What player are you hoping to get for Holt and why would that player bring more value to the team? Zobrist got the Rays Jaso and a couple of minor leaguers. Would a haul like that improve the Boston Red Sox?

Zobrist was older and only had one year of control when dealt. I'm also picturing that the team trading for him would just play him at one position most of the time (like we probably should have instead of signing Panda), so we can compare Holt to more than just Zobrist.
 
I would like to get pitching prospects, or pitchers with years of control, that can strike guys out. Like Rodriguez.
 
I don't know what the market is like for Holt, but he seems like a reasonably attractive piece.

 

[YTF]

San Francisco's Nori Aoki fractured his leg. The Sox "overcrowded" outfield may not hold the value that we hoped it might earlier in the season, but perhaps a chance here to get something for Craig or perhaps JBJ
.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

San Francisco's Nori Aoki fractured his leg. The Sox "overcrowded" outfield may not hold the value that we hoped it might earlier in the season, but perhaps a chance here to get something for Craig or perhaps JBJ
.

 
Why are we anxious to trade either of those players?

 

[Rasputin]

San Francisco's Nori Aoki fractured his leg. The Sox "overcrowded" outfield may not hold the value that we hoped it might earlier in the season, but perhaps a chance here to get something for Craig or perhaps JBJ
.

 
Why are we anxious to trade either of those players?

Yeah, if we trade someone, it should be Vic and he'll have to come back and establish value first.

 

[moondog80]

 
Why are we anxious to trade either of those players?

 
 
You wouldn't jump at the chance to trade Craig?

 

[jscola85]

I could see SF liking JBJ a lot.  His defense and arm would play extremely well in the spacious center field at Pac Bell.  That said, I don't see why the Sox should be selling on JBJ unless they got something that immediately improves the MLB club from SF.

 

[E5 Yaz]

You wouldn't jump at the chance to trade Craig?

 
Anyone willing to trade for Craig would do so only if the Red Sox ate most of the contract.

 

[The Mort Report]

Holt and Zobrist comps really stop at the ability to play multiple positions and hit for a decent average.  Ever since Zobrist became a full time player in 2009, he has averaged 16.5 HRs(no less than 10), and 15.8 STLs(also no less than 10).  His WAR was below 5.2 in that span only once(2010, 3.8).  Yes Holt is younger, but he doesn't have near the track record, and I think if he ever has a 15/15 season everyone would be surprised.
 
I am most certainly not questioning Holt's value, he carries a great deal of, but as a super util.  Teams at the deadline are looking to upgrade a single spot usually, not a bench player.  Every contending team usually adds to the bench at some point(see Roberts, Dave), but those deals seem to take place more in October or as secondary thoughts, nothing involving any decent prospects.  I'm sure someone can find a deal in the last 10 years of a bench player getting traded for a no named prospect who turns out great, but then I'm going to have to spend an hour finding the other 100 that didn't work and I want to enjoy my day off.
 
My point is, if we trade Holt, the level of prospect coming back has probably less than a 1% chance of being as valuable as Holt.  If we was in his walk year I can see gambling like that, but not when we have multiple years of control

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

 
Anyone willing to trade for Craig would do so only if the Red Sox ate most of the contract.

And that's a problem?

 

[Rasputin]

And that's a problem?

 
If the point of trading Craig is to get rid of the money and you have to eat most of the money to get rid of Craig, doesn't that take a lot of enthusiasm out of the trade?
 
He's due about 24 million between the rest of this year through what I assume is a buyout of a million in 2018. If you eat three quarters of that, you're looking at saving six million. Now sure, you get a chance to save six million, you're gonna take it, and maybe it's the difference between paying tax and not* which makes it worth more than six million, but six million isn't that much to this organization. If you could get rid of the whole 24 million, you jump at it. Only getting rid of 6 million, you maybe hop a little.
 
*Though with Craig's salary when he's down not counting against the ML payroll, trading him and eating money (which would count) would only increase the payroll for luxury tax purposes.

 

[YTF]

There is a contender (San Francisco) that suddenly has a need, the Sox may or may not be able to help with that. I mentioned JBJ and Craig because I'm guessing that Betts isn't available and of the remaining outfielders JBJ may have the most long term appeal and perhaps Craig along with some subsidy and another player brings back something usable for the Sox. Not sure if the Sox are anxious to trade either player but there are a couple of areas on this team that need fixing, yes?

 

[Rasputin]

There is a contender (San Francisco) that suddenly has a need, the Sox may or may not be able to help with that. I mentioned JBJ and Craig because I'm guessing that Betts isn't available and of the remaining outfielders JBJ may have the most long term appeal and perhaps Craig along with some subsidy and another player brings back something usable for the Sox. Not sure if the Sox are anxious to trade either player but there are a couple of areas on this team that need fixing, yes?

 
Yeah, but as currently constituted, the outfield is one of them.
 
In one of the other threads, it's pointed out that the Sox have had much better than average production from most positions on the field but RF, 1B, and C have been black holes. We don't really want to trade away our young cost-controlled options for right field. And considering that we're going to have an opening at DH soon, we're certainly going to have room for all of Betts, Castillo, and Bradley. 

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

There is a contender (San Francisco) that suddenly has a need, the Sox may or may not be able to help with that. I mentioned JBJ and Craig because I'm guessing that Betts isn't available and of the remaining outfielders JBJ may have the most long term appeal and perhaps Craig along with some subsidy and another player brings back something usable for the Sox. Not sure if the Sox are anxious to trade either player but there are a couple of areas on this team that need fixing, yes?

 
It doesn't make sense from the Giants' perspective, though. Neither of those two guys are the type of player whom a contender trades for in July, as neither can really be expected to step in and deliver in the midst of a close division race. 

 

[Al Zarilla]

There is a contender (San Francisco) that suddenly has a need, the Sox may or may not be able to help with that. I mentioned JBJ and Craig because I'm guessing that Betts isn't available and of the remaining outfielders JBJ may have the most long term appeal and perhaps Craig along with some subsidy and another player brings back something usable for the Sox. Not sure if the Sox are anxious to trade either player but there are a couple of areas on this team that need fixing, yes?

The Giants have brought up Travis Ishikawa, who has plenty of experience with the big club. He's a first baseman by trade, but has played some OF, including in the post season.
 

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   #SFGiants place OF Nori Aoki on 15-day DL with fractured right fibula. Travis Ishikawa contract purchased from AAA; added to 25-man roster
   
   
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[dynomite]

There is a contender (San Francisco) that suddenly has a need, the Sox may or may not be able to help with that. I mentioned JBJ and Craig because I'm guessing that Betts isn't available and of the remaining outfielders JBJ may have the most long term appeal and perhaps Craig along with some subsidy and another player brings back something usable for the Sox. Not sure if the Sox are anxious to trade either player but there are a couple of areas on this team that need fixing, yes?

1) Aoki's injury doesn't seem all that serious. Looks like he could be back by August.

2) I agree with the logic but not the players.

As someone else pointed out, Victorino is the most logical player for the Giants. He's a veteran with a history of playoff heroics and still mashes lefties and plays good defense. Most importantly, he's an expiring Red Sox contract blocking their ability to evaluate younger players in 2015. That's who a contender will trade for in July, as opposed to sending Craig or JBJ and losing years of team control. Victorino is an expensive afterthought on this team that could be an important playoff piece for the Giants.

Edit: or said another way:

 
It doesn't make sense from the Giants' perspective, though. Neither of those two guys are the type of player whom a contender trades for in July, as neither can really be expected to step in and deliver in the midst of a close division race. 

 

[Lars The Wanderer]

Giants have Posey at 1B, Susac at C and Belt in LF today. I was kinda hoping they would call up Mac Williamson but Ishikawa got the nod instead.
 
I'm sure the Giants would listen on players in the last year of their deal. They wouldn't do someone like Craig unless the Sox picked up most of that contract. In any case, I doubt the return would be anything substantial.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I'd put the roster in the following buckets: WITH COMMENTS FOR NEXT YEAR
 
Not getting traded under almost any circumstances
Ortiz - can block trade, public statements BUT MAY BE RETIRING (OR PLATOONING) IN 2016
Pedroia - can block trade, signed below-market deal to stay in Boston
Rodriguez - multiple years of control, early signs of potential dominance
Betts - have already turned down multiple offers, on pace for 3+ WAR season
Bogaerts - see Betts
Porcello - contract vs. performance to date makes this one highly unlikely - would be ultimate sell-low
Sandoval - contract is tough but more importantly, Sox have zero options to replace him right now AND MAY BE MOVING TO 1B IF ANOTHER 3B COULD BE FOUND 
Craig - just a sunk cost at this point IMO
I'D INSERT SWIHART HERE
 
Unlikely to trade, but possible
Ramirez - see Porcello, but could see a team viewing him with enough upside to take a risk if Sox pay part of freight FUTURE DH, PROBABLY ONE OF THE BEST
Miley - contract is reasonable but market for underperforming #4 starters isn't all that strong
Swihart - struggles to date in MLB notwithstanding, he's still got tons of upside and team control at a premium position I'D REPLACE SWIHART WITH VAZQUEZ ON THIS LINE
Victorino - zero value right now.  Seems like a prime candidate for an August waiver deal GONE
Rusney - huge contract but SSS and I suspect scouts still see oodles of latent talent/athleticism RIGHT FIELDER (OR CENTER FIELDER)
Barnes - seems like he has a real future as a late-inning relief ace on the cheap, but not someone I'd refuse to include in the right deal
 
On the fence
Tazawa - getting more expensive, but a very reliable performer (against everyone but Toronto, at least) CLOSER?
Holt - worth more to us than others, even if part of 2015 performance is just the BABIP gods favoring him
Kelly - some team could see him as the next Wade Davis but probably not getting much for him HE'S CONTROLLED AND IS EVENTUALLY GOING TO BE WORTH MORE THAN HE'S PAID, SOMEWHERE, FOR SOMEONE. HE MAY LEARN HOW TO PITCH. 
Hanigan - cheap, fills a role, but if we're going nowhere it's not like he's a part of the future GONE
Layne - multiple years of control, but also the kind of guy who could fetch a good prospect to a desperate contender at the deadline
Wright - minimal trade value, but has usefulness to Sox as innings eater either for spot starts or mop-up duty
 
Hope they're renting, not owning
Buchholz - team option next year enhances value; may be best realistic option for starter available at deadline DEPENDS ON COST AND WHAT FA'S THE RED SOX PICK UP
Ogando - flip him for what you can get GONE
Breslow - probably should just get cut loose to give someone like Barnes, Hembree or Aro a chance GONE
Uehara - I love you Koji, but it's time to part ways NO ONE WILL GIVE BACK ENOUGH VALUE. STAYS IN THE PEN.
Napoli - same as Buchholz for 1B/DH options for contenders GONE (UNLESS PIXIE DUST IS FOR REAL)
Ross - see Breslow, except we can just option him down to AAA
 
I would suspect if the team continues to founder, maybe only 1-2 of the last category are still on the 40-man by September, and about half of the penultimate bucket will be gone, and then maybe 1 of the untradeable/unlikely bucket players will get moved.  This isn't anything others have highlighted, just putting it on one post helped me recognize this roster doesn't have a ton of flexibility to clean house right now.  Some of the retooling will simply have to come from the guys already here just playing better, or the team taking some big lumps for the next year or two. I DON'T THINK IT'S FOR A YEAR OR TWO...I THINK THEY RETOOL QUICKLY IN THE OFF SEASON, PARTICULARLY WITH A FA MARKET FLOODED WITH PITCHING AND SOME KIDS THAT MAY BE BLOCKED.

 
I'm extremely optimistic about 2016 and don't see the Sox selling anything real this year - mostly because other teams aren't idiots and there's nothing of value that Boston is willing to trade. No reason to trade crap for crap.
 
The outfield and 1B need to be settled. Pitching will take care of itself (without relinquishing kids).
 
Am I crazy?

 

[dynomite]

 
Pitching will take care of itself (without relinquishing kids).
 
Am I crazy?

If not exactly crazy, this is... Ambitious.

Edit: to be less flippant, in 2015 the Red Sox have one of the worst rotations and bullpens in baseball. I can see that improving in 2016, but I'm not confident It will improve because it "takes care of itself."