If we're sellers, who do we sell?

[Rasputin]

We're not there yet, but we might be soon, which means it might be worth thinking about who we could sell off for a decent return.
 
Or so I was thinking until I took a look at the contract commitment page on Cot's. 
 
We'd be looking for people on short commitments who are good even if it's in a small role, and not signed to long deals.
 
Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Justin Masterson, and Craig Breslow are all free agents at the end of the season but I don't think they're meeting the requirement of playing well. There's time for that to change, of course, but not much of it.
 
Koji Uehara is performing well and is signed for just one more year.
 
Clay Buchholz is performing well and has an option for next year.
 
David Ortiz is still hitting righties and has two option years.
 
If the Sox are convinced Swihart would benefit from sharing the job in the majors, Hannigan could be traded when he returns.
 
Junichi Tazawa has another arb year coming, as does Alexi Ogando.
 
Tommy Layne isn't signed for 2016.
 
Ortiz has 10/5 protection, 
 
I think Buchholz and Uehara would bring back a pretty decent return. I'm not all that convinced anyone else would. Of course, this team hasn't given up on 2015 and sure as shit hasn't given up on 2016 so I'm not entirely sure they're of a mind to trade Buchholz and Uehara.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Et tu Brute?
 
So soon? They're still playing basketball and hockey. But, y'all go ahead.

 

[Bigpupp]

I was thinking about this earlier today. I don't think the Sox have anyone on the roster that is playing well enough to be desired by other teams but expendable enough for the Red Sox to move. You can never count out dumb GM's that will either give up something for Napoli, Victorino, etc...nor someone who would be willing to overpay for Tazawa/Uehara, but unlike last year, this team doesn't have a lot of players they can move with no issues.
 
Also, just a couple things about your list: Buchholz has two option years and Layne is under team control for 5 more years.

 

[Plympton91]

They were saying this morning that the Cubs and Blue Jays were sniffing around Papelbon.  I have to think Uehara's contract is more appealing; Paps is going to trigger that vesting option at $13 million.  Worth trying to see if you can extract the next Varitek and Lowe deal from one of them.
 
Gammons was on MLB radio this morning saying that the Red Sox could begin to plan for how pack it in for 2016 after this weekend unless they win tonight and take 2 of 3 from Toronto.

 

[AimingForYoko]

I feel like I've read this same thread for almost 4 straight years. 2013 was nice though.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Whether you want to go for the playoffs or sell off some of these guys, you're going to have to stick with them for another month or so to get back in it or raise some of their trade values.  An 8-2 streak (yeah, I know) might gain you 4 games in the standings in this division.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

 
I think Buchholz and Uehara would bring back a pretty decent return. I'm not all that convinced anyone else would. Of course, this team hasn't given up on 2015 and sure as shit hasn't given up on 2016 so I'm not entirely sure they're of a mind to trade Buchholz and Uehara.

 
I never really understood why they didn't move Uehara last deadline, as I think shutdown relievers are exactly the kind of player teams tend to make regrettable deals for in July (see Miller, Andrew). They absolutely should look to move him. EDITED TO ADD that we probably should be factoring in the possibility that Papelbon, Clippard, and others might be out there, too, so that may deflate his value a little.
 
Buchholz is a tougher call for me. On the one hand, I get it - he's inconsistent, and when Bad Buck shows up, he's one of the most maddening pitchers to watch. But Good Buck has been showing up lately, and Good Buck is a bargain for those two option years. But then again, it is those option years that might make him worth more than, say, Allen Craig and Joe Kelly. So I have no idea.
 
Napoli will probably have a market, but I can't imagine him bringing back much more than filler or a lottery ticket. Washington just put Ryan Zimmerman on the DL, so there's a possible destination right there.

 

[Detts]

It's not a list of 'who you want to sell'.  It's a list of 'who you want to keep'.  That is a much shorter list.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

They were saying this morning that the Cubs and Blue Jays were sniffing around Papelbon.  I have to think Uehara's contract is more appealing; Paps is going to trigger that vesting option at $13 million.  Worth trying to see if you can extract the next Varitek and Lowe deal from one of them.
 

 
The idea was that the Jays would take Papelbon in a package with Cole Hamels. The thinking was that Hamels' price could go down if someone took most, if not all, of Pap's salary too. The Jays need another starter and guy in the back end of their bullpen. 
 
I'm not exactly sure what they have to give the Phillies that will quench Amaro's insane thirst. 

 

[rembrat]

They were saying this morning that the Cubs and Blue Jays were sniffing around Papelbon.  I have to think Uehara's contract is more appealing; Paps is going to trigger that vesting option at $13 million.  Worth trying to see if you can extract the next Varitek and Lowe deal from one of them.

 
Something tells me that teams trying to get deep into October aren't going to be sniffing around a 40 year old closer, who makes the news every time he has to, gasp, pitch 3 days straight. Nor do I think the difference in their deals, a measly $4MM, is going to make anyone bat an eye.

 

[Rasputin]

Et tu Brute?
 
So soon? They're still playing basketball and hockey. But, y'all go ahead.

 
I'm just thinking ahead. There's plenty of time for them to shove this thread down my throat.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Yeah, I was thinking about raising this issue after last night.   Thought it was a hair early, and that I'd wait until someone else brought it up. 
 
We're at 27-33 (25-35 pythag).  102 games left.  It's recently taken 88 wins (or more) to get to the second wild card spot.   So they'd have to go 61-40 in the remaining games.  That's a .603 winning percentage.  If you want to be safer and get to 90 wins, it's 63-38, a .623 percentage.  They'd basically have to be as good as STL or KC has been thus far.  But for twice as long. 
 
Sure, it's possible.  But this team has that "if only it all started working right" feel to it since the beginning.  Sort of like 2012 (or 2014), but now with everyone saying the right things (and no BV).  Speaking of 2012, the Punto trade was on Aug 25.  But the ownership must have felt that team was out of it well before that point.   The day of the trade the Sox were 60-67, a .472 winning percentage.  The 2012 Sox were at .487 on June 11.  Last year we had the fire sale at the trade deadline - July 31st (the big trade day) saw us at 48-60, .444.   The 2014 Sox were at .446 on June 11.
 
We're currently at .450.  The team probably has 30 days until management starts dialing the phones. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's not a list of 'who you want to sell'.  It's a list of 'who you want to keep'.  That is a much shorter list.

 
And the counter to that is how many not on the "who you want to keep" have any trade value at all?  There in lies the quandary...the reason the team is in danger of being a seller next month is precisely because a lot of the guys that they might be willing to part with aren't producing at all.

 

[dcmissle]

If the deficit is at double digits by the end of this month, we're likely done.
 
I also thought about this last night, from a perspective different from who you could send packing and what would they yield.
 
My thought was, how many kids can you spot 3 months of playing time together?  My priorities would be --
 
1.  Develop as many as these prospects people have been glowing about for years.
 
2.  Shed as much payroll as you reasonably can in future years.
 
3.  Get back what you can.
 
Who comes in is not likely to get me very excited because we don't have a lot to offer.

 

[jimbobim]

Yeah, I was thinking about raising this issue after last night.   Thought it was a hair early, and that I'd wait until someone else brought it up. 
 
We're at 27-33 (25-35 pythag).  102 games left.  It's recently taken 88 wins (or more) to get to the second wild card spot.   So they'd have to go 61-40 in the remaining games.  That's a .603 winning percentage.  If you want to be safer and get to 90 wins, it's 63-38, a .623 percentage.  They'd basically have to be as good as STL or KC has been thus far.  But for twice as long. 
 
Sure, it's possible.  But this team has that "if only it all started working right" feel to it since the beginning.  Sort of like 2012 (or 2014), but now with everyone saying the right things (and no BV).  Speaking of 2012, the Punto trade was on Aug 25.  But the ownership must have felt that team was out of it well before that point.   The day of the trade the Sox were 60-67, a .472 winning percentage.  The 2012 Sox were at .487 on June 11.  Last year we had the fire sale at the trade deadline - July 31st (the big trade day) saw us at 48-60, .444.   The 2014 Sox were at .446 on June 11.
 
We're currently at .450.  The team probably has 30 days until management starts dialing the phones. 

This is why the weekly FO statements that the team is fine and just needs to play up to standards is beyond frustrating. The consistent offense they expected isn't there and it won't magically manifest itself for a variety of reasons mostly offensively related. The pitching and bullpen have stabilized to their average offseason expectations, but without offensive reinforcements this teams winning percentage will only continue to nose dive.
 
Despite JH's assurances I find it hard to believe BC survives another blow it up and tank job even though that's exactly how the top 10 pick protected system is incentivized to do if a team grossly underperforms this far into the season.  
 
Further they just don't have much to sell as others have noted. Hard to see trading Uehara Layne or Buch bringing back significant needed offensive pieces. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

The idea was that the Jays would take Papelbon in a package with Cole Hamels. The thinking was that Hamels' price could go down if someone took most, if not all, of Pap's salary too. The Jays need another starter and guy in the back end of their bullpen. 
 
I'm not exactly sure what they have to give the Phillies that will quench Amaro's insane thirst.

No way the Jays could take on both those contracts .. Even if subsidized. I can see them getting Papelbon but only if the Phillies eat a large portion of the remaining salary. And they don't really have much of a prospect base -other than the young guys currently on the team. And I can't see trading Sanchez for the likes of Papelbon.

 

[Rasputin]

I think there's a chance Vic comes back and does enough that someone wants him, but I don't think there's anything significant to be had there.
 
I think Buchholz and Uehara are the only really significant deals to be had, and I'd be very cautious about trading either of them.

 

[lexrageorge]

 
Something tells me that teams trying to get deep into October aren't going to be sniffing around a 40 year old closer, who makes the news every time he has to, gasp, pitch 3 days straight. Nor do I think the difference in their deals, a measly $4MM, is going to make anyone bat an eye.

I'm sure someone will sniff on Uehara.  Only one team will be able to get Papelbon, and bullpen help is nearly always a need.  
 
The biggest problem with this team is that there most tradeable assets are also potentially useful in 2016, Buchholz in particular.  The guys in their contract year are not going to bring much of anything back.  
 
Papi would likely need his option picked up before agreeing to a trade.  And that will likely make his trade market become nil.  
 
Would a team be interested in taking on one of Sandoval, Ramirez, Kelly, Porcello, or Miley?  Some more likely than others.  I would certainly be willing to offer up any of them before Clay.  
 
Everyone else is either bullpen filler or young guys that we should not trade at this point.  
 
Finally, for a number of reasons, no team sells out before July 1st, and seldom before the ASG.  Boston will be no different.  The trade market is nearly always better post-break than before anyway. 

 

[moondog80]

Koji, Buchholz, and Napoli would have some value.  The first two at least should have at least as much as Andrew Miller did last year, and that deal looks pretty good right now  Nap, maybe we repeat what we got for Peavy.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Personally, I don't want us making any trades as long as Allard Baird is in charge of scouting and personnel. And since he keeps getting promoted, and there's been zero talk anywhere in the media of him being in any trouble, it looks like he is entrenched. 
 
They promoted him in 2011, after he was the one responsible for evaluating Carl Crawford, and then again a couple years after that. So he's probably not going anywhere.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Personally, I don't want us making any trades as long as Allard Baird is in charge of scouting and personnel. And since he keeps getting promoted, and there's been zero talk anywhere in the media of him being in any trouble, it looks like he is entrenched. 
 
They promoted him in 2011, after he was the one responsible for evaluating Carl Crawford, and then again a couple years after that. So he's probably not going anywhere.

 
I haven't done an exhaustive review of all of the team's recent trades lately, but it generally seems like the front office is better at identifying minor-league talent these days than major-league. So if these deals are more Eduardo Rodriguez than Yoenis Cespedes, I'm on board. Of course, it doesn't really matter if the field staff continues to struggle with turning those good prospects into good big leaguers - although the recent play Xander and Eduardo suggests that things might be looking up in that department.

 

[moondog80]

 
I haven't done an exhaustive review of all of the team's recent trades lately, but it generally seems like the front office is better at identifying minor-league talent these days than major-league. So if these deals are more Eduardo Rodriguez than Yoenis Cespedes, I'm on board. Of course, it doesn't really matter if the field staff continues to struggle with turning those good prospects into good big leaguers - although the recent play Xander and Eduardo suggests that things might be looking up in that department.

  
Prospects usually need time, they're not all like Mike Trout.  Think the Royals are happy they were patient with Hosmer, Cain, Gordon, Moustakas, and Wade Davis?   (Davis, by the way, has an ERA+ of 1144, and that's not a typo.) 

 

[The X Man Cometh]

If they were to trade anyone (and it's questionable that anyone they have will return much), they run into the problem of not having much on the farm that is deserving of playing time. So, let's say you are able to move Napoli for a B prospect...is it really worth it to just open up playing time for a Travis Shaw? At least last year, moving Peavy, Lester, etc opened up roster spots to see what they had in Rubby, Webster, etc...they didn't really have much in AAA who deserves and needs a good look in the bigs.

 
Between Ramirez, Craig, and Ortiz, the Sox are committed to plenty of players whose best defensive position is first base, and who aren't going anywhere.
 
Now the question is whether Ramirez can even play first base, or is digging balls out something he can't handle? He looks pretty stiff with all his new bulk.

 

[OCD SS]

Dealing anyone with multiple years of control (Koji, Clay) leaves holes for next year as well, and I assume that this team will be looking to be competitive again next year. Who fills these rolls then? I think it's safe to say that the Red Sox are not going to be spending $150+M to buy an ace in the offseason.

 

[TomRicardo]

So wait we aren't getting to 100 wins?
 
I am not exactly sure what you think we can sell.
 
David Ortiz is not waiving his 10/5 rights unless someone picks up his option years.
 
Victorino exists in theory.
 
Clay has an option for next year and the Red Sox already have holes in their rotation.
 
Hannigan is probably not back before August 1st and should replace the poor man's Kevin Cash Sandy Leon.
 
 
The only person I can see is Napoli.  But he would have to hit for more than 4 days

 

[grimshaw]

^Agree.  Our pieces on short contracts are garbage right now.
 
What spots are even free for next year?
3B, SS, 2B, CF, LF, RF, C are all locked in their spots unless Rusney is just a 4th OF type in which case, they could still use an OF.
The rotation is the rotation basically, unless you want to move Kelly.  We haven't seen Johnson in action yet.  Owens is still developing but showing improvement.  He'll need an audition at some point.
 
They need pen help, so even moving someone like Tazawa who you could get something for wouldn't fix anything.
 
I could see moving Clay if they were committed to signing one of the big name starters this off-season.
They need 1B/3B prospects with power, and high K-rate arms for the pen.

 

[jasail]

If Clay continues to be a ~4.00 ERA pitcher, he may be someone the Sox want to sell. Personally, I'd love to ship him off to NL and and make space for Johnson in the rotation. I just have no love for Clay and would love to jettison him.
 
Outside of that, the Sox could gut the bullpen, specifically Taz and maybe Koji, but that puts them behind the 8-ball for building a bullpen next year, as Barnes would be the best reliever and he hasn't impressed so far. Granted Workman and Escobar could be fully rehabbed by then and provide some depth pieces.
 
Everyone else is either someone the Sox shouldn't trade (i.e., Betts, EdRo, Xander, Swihart, Pedroia, Holt and Barnes), guys the Sox likely can't trade (i.e., Ortiz, Hanley, Pablo, Porcello, and Miley) or guys the Sox can't get anything worthwhile back for (i.e., Wright, Kelly, Breslow, Vic, Craig, Rusney, Ogando, Ross, Nava, De Aza and Napoli). 
 
All that said, I'd listen to offers for anyone other than the group that I think the Sox shouldn't trade.

 

[Murby]

I get the rotation has holes in it, but if I could get someone to bite on good Clay (assuming he stays as good Clay) I would try to get something. I have no fair in him long term. I wouldn't sell him for nothing though.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Clay has had two bad starts all year. That it. Yes, one of them was monumentally bad, but it skews his numbers significantly. Since his 9 ER start (2nd of his season) he has a 3.45 ERA. Since his second bad start at the start of May he has a 2.59 ERA. He's been a very good pitcher for most of the season and just so happens to have two stinkers dragging his numbers down. Yes, those starts count, but wanting to jettison Clay, or hoping someone will bit on "good Clay" is ridiculous. He's the best pitcher on the staff right now. At least, until Eduardo Rodriguez proves he can be dominant at the major league level over a much larger sample.

 

[jasail]

Clay has had two bad starts all year. That it. Yes, one of them was monumentally bad, but it skews his numbers significantly. Since his 9 ER start (2nd of his season) he has a 3.45 ERA. Since his second bad start at the start of May he has a 2.59 ERA. He's been a very good pitcher for most of the season and just so happens to have two stinkers dragging his numbers down. Yes, those starts count, but wanting to jettison Clay, or hoping someone will bit on "good Clay" is ridiculous. He's the best pitcher on the staff right now. At least, until Eduardo Rodriguez proves he can be dominant at the major league level over a much larger sample.

 
Buchholz is a good value over the next two season, warts and all. That said, considering the performance this season and last year and the swiss cheese roster they have, I'm not sure that makes a damn bit of difference over the long haul. if the Sox can get someone 10 years younger who is cost controlled with similar upside, you have to jump at it. This team needs more than a make-over it needs reconstruction and an eye on 2017/2018. 

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

If Clay continues to be a ~4.00 ERA pitcher, he may be someone the Sox want to sell. Personally, I'd love to ship him off to NL and and make space for Johnson in the rotation. I just have no love for Clay and would love to jettison him.
 
 

This is kind of crazy.  As Snod pointed out and even a cursory glance at his peripherals indicate, his season is much better than his ERA would suggest, and from an fWAR point of view he's on track to have his best season with the Sox.  I don't even like him, but suggesting that sending off the 150-170 innings of what he can give you and handing his job to Brian Johnson is wish casting.

 

[jasail]

This is kind of crazy.  As Snod pointed out and even a cursory glance at his peripherals indicate, his season is much better than his ERA would suggest, and from an fWAR point of view he's on track to have his best season with the Sox.  I don't even like him, but suggesting that sending off the 150-170 innings of what he can give you and handing his job to Brian Johnson is wish casting.

 
IMO, it's not about how to make this year's team better or even next year. It's about putting the pieces in place over the long run. I have zero confidence that next year is going to yield results that are any different than this year, considering how wed they are to this year's roster next year. Plus with Clay, he's the ultimate sell high guy. He's put together three full seasons (170+ IP) in his career and of those three full seasons he's put together an ERA+ over 100 in 1 of them (2008 w/a 187 ERA+); in the other two seasons his ERA+ was 92 and 72. In every other seasons, whether excellent or terrible, he's put together only about 100IP per year. He's not reliable, consistent or young enough to not consider trading.  
 
Edit: Let me rephrase my second sentence above. Rather than saying, "I have zero confidence that next year is going to yield results that are any different than this year, considering how wed they are to this year's roster next year." Let me say, "Considering how wed they are to this year's roster next year, I have zero confidence that next year is going to yield results that are so much different that the difference between keeping and moving Clay Buchholz is going to have a demonstrable effect on the Sox overall performance."

 

[LostinNJ]

Dealing anyone with multiple years of control (Koji, Clay) leaves holes for next year as well, and I assume that this team will be looking to be competitive again next year. Who fills these rolls then? I think it's safe to say that the Red Sox are not going to be spending $150+M to buy an ace in the offseason.

A big reason they stink this year is they tried to cure all the team's problems in one mighty offseason, and ended up with a poisonous mix of young guys who haven't hit their stride, guys in their prime whose prime turns out not to be so great, and old guys in decline. Focusing on the next year is not a good plan for this team at this time -- there's too much dead wood under contract beyond 2015. Let 2016 be about Ortiz's farewell tour and quest for 500 home runs. Meanwhile, trade anyone over the age of 24 who will yield a return of young talent, even if you have to subsidize salaries, and hope to contend from 2017 to 2020 or so.
 
In other words, what Jasail said.

 

[Plympton91]

 
 This team needs more than a make-over it needs reconstruction and an eye on 2017/2018. 

 
If this team isn't planning on being competitive until 2017/2018, then I hope they have a plan for not going bankrupt next year with Fenway half empty and NESN ratings lower than Food Network.
 
I'm a guy who used to have a monicker "DieHard" and I think combined I've watched 50 innings of this season.  Life is too short to spend it watching bad baseball.

 

[jasail]

 
If this team isn't planning on being competitive until 2017/2018, then I hope they have a plan for not going bankrupt next year with Fenway half empty and NESN ratings lower than Food Network.
 
I'm a guy who used to have a monicker "DieHard" and I think combined I've watched 50 innings of this season.  Life is too short to spend it watching bad baseball.

 
I hear you on that last bit. I love going to the gym in the summer so I can run and watch the Sox, as I have one TV at home and my wife hates baseball. Lately, I haven't been doing as much running. So not only are they terrible for my mental health, my cardiovascular health is taking a hit too. They are quite literally literally putting me in an early grave. 

 

[brandonchristensen]

Betts and Swihart for Cole Hamels.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

You must be kidding..I hope.

 

[MikeM]

I'd certainly agree Clay is a "sell high" candidate here, and if we are bailing on 2015 and can get decent return on Koji you almost have to pull the trigger. Not going to lose sleep over the prospect of having to replace either this winter either.  
 
Napoli's May had visions of ducking a LT hit in 2015 dancing through my head...but now he sucks again and i can't see anybody taking the full cost flyer unless he heats back up. Like immediately.   

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

The Sox are only 7 out of first. Does it feel like more? Sure. But this is a sub par division in which anyone can win provided a decent winning streak. Consider that the Sox cannot play any worse and the run scored will go up. The pitching outside of Porcello is starting to pick it up.

As far as trading for prospects, why go this route? The Red Sox already have one of if not the best system in baseball. I understand keeping the pipeline coming but one of the reasons they signed Panda and Hanley is that in 2012 and last year ratings plummeted and interest in the team from the pink hats is not what it was. You can have your own opinion on how those signings did or did not work out this far based on the last two months.

The real fundamental problem here is two fold. There is no ace on this team to be that stopper. Cole Hamels would be perfect. The second one is more troubling. They have failed to find a replacement for Ortiz. He is 39 years old. Building your lineup around an all time great aging slugger hardly goes well.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Ticket prices need to come down or else they re going to lose a lot of season ticket holders. 
 
Hanigan, Napoli, Holt, Ortiz, victorino, Nava, and every pitcher not named Barnes or ERod are expendable. Panda and Hanley are untradeable most likely.
 
The question is on Pedroia. You could probably get a ton for him and Betts could move to 2B. but do you sell high now that's he's healthy for the first time in three years+? tough call. Maybe use pedroia to rid yourself of one of the bad FA signings this offseason?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Ticket prices need to come down or else they re going to lose a lot of season ticket holders. 
 
Hanigan, Napoli, Holt, Ortiz, victorino, Nava, and every pitcher not named Barnes or ERod are expendable. Panda and Hanley are untradeable most likely.
 
The question is on Pedroia. You could probably get a ton for him and Betts could move to 2B. but do you sell high now that's he's healthy for the first time in three years+? tough call. Maybe use pedroia to rid yourself of one of the bad FA signings this offseason?

I respect where you're going with this. I strongly disagree. Pedroia is healthy and on a very friendly contract. Those guys you don't move to get out of the Hanley or Panda contract after 2 months. It's not enough time to judge the player or the team. They need to add the right players not subtract.

Ticket prices will stay the same can't see this ownership slashing prices regardless of the product.

 

[JimD]

 
If this team isn't planning on being competitive until 2017/2018, then I hope they have a plan for not going bankrupt next year with Fenway half empty and NESN ratings lower than Food Network.
 

 
This is nonsense.  The early 1990's Butch Hobson years were the deadest time I can remember as a Red Sox fan and average Fenway attendance never dropped below 27,000 per game.

 

[ivanvamp]

Being a seller sucks. Once in a while, fine. Three out of the last four years? Yuck.

But if the Sox are going to be sellers, everyone but the following is expendable:

E Rodriguez
Betts
Bogaerts
Swihart
Vazquez
Barnes (maybe)

Pedroia and Ortiz are guys that I'd be willing to move, but I don't there's a chance in the world that the Sox would.

The guys that I think you could get something pretty useful for:

Pedroia (#1 trade chip if they really were willing to deal him)
Uehara (you won't get a kings ransom, but he's still really, really good)
Holt (very useful player for a contender)
Napoli (veteran hitter, reasonable contract, good power, excellent fielder)
Kelly (someone will want his dynamic arm and past track record)
Tazawa (excellent 7-8th inning guy with championship experience)
Ortiz (limited market, but if you're going to the playoffs and you can add Big Papi, you'd consider it for sure)
Buchholz (still has tremendous talent...a contender may want to take a shot there)

I think you could get someone to bite on Miley and Porcello too, if a team feels they're one SP short. You might have to subsidize the contract some, but you could move them.

 

[jimbobim]

Being a seller sucks. Once in a while, fine. Three out of the last four years? Yuck.

But if the Sox are going to be sellers, everyone but the following is expendable:

E Rodriguez
Betts
Bogaerts
Swihart
Vazquez
Barnes (maybe)

Pedroia and Ortiz are guys that I'd be willing to move, but I don't there's a chance in the world that the Sox would.

The guys that I think you could get something pretty useful for:

Pedroia (#1 trade chip if they really were willing to deal him)
Uehara (you won't get a kings ransom, but he's still really, really good)
Holt (very useful player for a contender)
Napoli (veteran hitter, reasonable contract, good power, excellent fielder)
Kelly (someone will want his dynamic arm and past track record)
Tazawa (excellent 7-8th inning guy with championship experience)
Ortiz (limited market, but if you're going to the playoffs and you can add Big Papi, you'd consider it for sure)
Buchholz (still has tremendous talent...a contender may want to take a shot there)

I think you could get someone to bite on Miley and Porcello too, if a team feels they're one SP short. You might have to subsidize the contract some, but you could move them.

highly doubt he'd waive that clause
 

• As the Red Sox continue to tinker with one of the game’s most fascinating talent mixes, those calling for a trade of cornerstone second baseman Dustin Pedroia may need something of a reality check, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. For starters, Pedroia’s deal contains a full no-trade clause, Bradford notes. And when Pedroia’s glove and veteran role are weighed in the balance, says Bradford, the idea of trading him makes little practical sense.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

 
This is nonsense.  The early 1990's Butch Hobson years were the deadest time I can remember as a Red Sox fan and average Fenway attendance never dropped below 27,000 per game.

 
Plympton makes a good point (DH3 was much easier to abbreviate, BTW). But I'm looking at a bleacher seat ticket from 1993 and it's $7. It's 300-400% higher than that now. Not to mention the prices for beers, sodas and hot dogs have gone through the roof. Do you really want to drop $50-75 watching bad baseball more than twice a season? Does a family want to blow $200 a game more than once a season?
 
I understand that the owners need to make money and lots of prices have gone up, but the bottom line is: people will pay big coin to watch a good product. Not so much for a bad one. 
 
As for what this team needs to do, they can't blow this up again. There's already seems (key word) to be a lack of continuity here already, they've done twice in the last three years and finally (and most importantly) they have no one to sell off. Victorino? Hannigan? Holt? Napoli? Craig? These are junk players, the Sox aren't getting anything but lottery tickets for them. Miley and Porcello, especially the latter have big contracts, why would any team give up something good for those two dudes? Kelly is a mess. Tazawa and Uehara are interesting, but one is a 40-year-old closer who can't pitch more than two days in a row and the other is pretty good. Ortiz won't give up his 10-5 rights, and I'd be shocked if Pedroia was sent away. 
 
So honestly, in that whole group of players, Tazawa is the only person you'd get anything of value for and I'm not sure if it's a smart move to get rid of him. 
 
And even if the Sox did burn down the house and found a bunch of trading partners, do you trust Cherrington to get anything of value? He did with Eddie Rodriguez last year, true, but his other deals weren't great. In fact, I'd say a lot of them were lousy -- so much so that pretty much all of the folks you have on the trading block are players he got at the July deadline. 
 
This team is in a lot of trouble and I think that it starts at the front office. 

 

[Rovin Romine]

This is the link to Cot's for the Sox commitments.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1urYwZOFAAvDhgtNZ86IJ8svhQUNEVoa3Y8Nf1TJb9dI/pub?output=html
 
One should trade to upgrade now or in the future.  The player traded should be replaceable from the system, or through FA.  (Assuming it isn't an "exchange same position headache players" type of trade, or a salary dump.)
 
We should keep young cost controlled players unless we have a glut at a position, or unless someone is blocked by an untraceable vet with a long shelf life.  
So we keep: Vazquez, Swihart, Xander, Betts, JBJ, Kelly, Holt. E.Rodriguez, and Wright are all guys who you'd like to hold onto.  C, C, SS, CF, CF, Utl, SP, SP.  Then there are a couple of pitchers on the farm.  Plus Craig who may or may not have figured it out. 
 
In terms of players earning more than $5 million AAV, we have: Hanley, Pablo, Napoli, Ortiz, Victorino, Pedroia, Porcello, Buchholz, Castillo, Miley, Masterson, Koji, and De Aza.  Tazawa is arb eligible, but a bullpen keystone, and would have to be replaced.
 
Of that group I don't think you trade:
Pedroia NTC and is clearly valuable beyond the numbers, which are good to excellent anyway. 
Buchholz SP (unless traded for an up and coming starter)
Porcello SP  (unless traded for an up and coming starter)
Ortiz PR hit and a one dimensional player.  If he's hitting we keep him, if he's not, who'd want him?  Vesting makes this interesting though. 
Koji (still a closer caliber arm, would have to be replaced)
 
I think Hanley, Pablo, Napoli, Victorino, Miley, Masterson, De Aza, Nava, et. al. should be on the table.  I don't see a lot of instant value there outside Hanley though, who we might want to keep for the bat as a future DH type.   It's the same problem as earlier years - we need to trade them because we suck, yet we suck because the key players aren't playing well, which means they have little value in trade. 
 
Our best trade value hope is that Napoli or Victorino (FAs) gets hot and goes to a contender.  I don't think either of them should be here for 2016.  Same for Pablo/Hanley if the Sox think they're going to suck in the future and want a quasi reboot through a salary dump trade or a Punto-esque trade.  

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The question is on Pedroia. You could probably get a ton for him and Betts could move to 2B. but do you sell high now that's he's healthy for the first time in three years+? tough call. Maybe use pedroia to rid yourself of one of the bad FA signings this offseason?

 
This is exactly right, unfortunately. The only way to cut a "Punto Deal" is to package at least one good contract with the bad.
 
And the one remaining truly good contract on the entire team is Pedroia. Except for the matter of his no-trade clause, it's a realistic option for a full-scale rebuild, because the team could in fact move Betts back to 2B, with JBJ given another chance to prove he isn't a complete black hole against MLB pitching in CF. At least from a warm bodies standpoint.
 
I can't imagine Farrell allowing any of those three moves except over his dead body, though. And I really don't think he'd be a good manager for a true A's/Astros-style youth movement, based on his time in Toronto. But realistically, the Sox might need a few years of youth movement/full-scale rebuild mode. Especially if Ortiz is truly on the last gasp of his marvelous career.
 
Because although 2013 was wonderful, one of the two key foundation stones of that team's offense was Ortiz, as has been the case since at least 2004. Sadly, his heir apparent (Rizzo) was dealt for another, more MLB-ready, heir apparent (Gonzalez) who was then replaced by nobody at all, simply in order to jettison 2010-11's most terrible dead-weight contracts.

 

[Rovin Romine]

And even if the Sox did burn down the house and found a bunch of trading partners, do you trust Cherrington to get anything of value? He did with Eddie Rodriguez last year, true, but his other deals weren't great. In fact, I'd say a lot of them were lousy -- so much so that pretty much all of the folks you have on the trading block are players he got at the July deadline. 
 
This team is in a lot of trouble and I think that it starts at the front office. 

 
Cherrington traded away FAs to be (and Lackey) for a bunch of stuff.  Eddie Rodriguez seems an absolute steal.  Craig and Kelly aren't that expensive and have/had upside and control.  Edwin Escobar looked good but started this year injured.  Lester got us Cespedes, who got us Porcello.  (Although Alex Wilson would look nice in the Boston pen right now.)   

 

[Toe Nash]

The Sox are only 7 out of first. Does it feel like more? Sure. But this is a sub par division in which anyone can win provided a decent winning streak. Consider that the Sox cannot play any worse and the run scored will go up. The pitching outside of Porcello is starting to pick it up.

This should stop. The Red Sox have the third-worst run differential in the majors. The Orioles are not particularly good and the Rays are just decent, but the Blue Jays have the BEST run differential in the league and the Yankees have the third-best (and a very good bullpen). Both those teams have just gone on long winning streaks as well.
 
Using season to date stats to project the rest of the year, the Yankees are projected for 90.2 wins and the Blue Jays for 88.7. If you weigh the last month more, they will both finish even higher than that.
 
It is no longer true that the division is weak. And the Sox are overperforming their run differential. It will take a 180 degree turnaround and no further improvement from the rest of the division for them to compete.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

Lester got us Cespedes, who got us Porcello.

 
I don't see how that's a point in Cherington's favor.
 

And even if the Sox did burn down the house and found a bunch of trading partners, do you trust Cherrington to get anything of value? He did with Eddie Rodriguez last year, true, but his other deals weren't great. In fact, I'd say a lot of them were lousy -- so much so that pretty much all of the folks you have on the trading block are players he got at the July deadline. 
 
This team is in a lot of trouble and I think that it starts at the front office. 

 
This is where I'm at. For whatever reason—be it scouting, stats, projections—the identification of major league talent in this front office has been shockingly poor. Every player acquired in the offseason has been a disaster on some level or another; last year's trade deadline moves, Miller for Rodriguez excepted, either didn't pan out or actively made the team worse. And it's not as if this team has much of value available in a deal.
 
At some point, the question shifts from "What can Cherington et al do to fix this team" to "Is this front office actually capable of fixing anything?" 2013 excepted—and that year feels more and more like a fluke with every passing day—it feels like the answer to that question is no.