That’s fine. I guess going into a season with a demonstrably worse SS/2B combo was unavoidable. What can you do, and all. Shrug emoji.
How long will Chaim last?
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While not every prospect develops at the same rate, bad/uneven drafts can sort of cluster a talent-dearth in the minors, which is what we're seeing now - exacerbated by trades sometimes. However they are acquired and develop, once they're up you've got that 6 year window of control over them, with 3 pre-arb years.
So here's a look at the Bare Cupboard Issue, which so many apparently hate to hear about.
The cluster of pre-arb players on the club in 2019 were, with one exception, not what you'd call lasting MLB talents. View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l9hPh7ITusWGngIWJdPqwN_kL5e9ci_ygCsg9ng02LM/edit#gid=573401688
There was Devers (and Benni was Arb1 - include him if you want). Then Josh Taylor. Then guys like Chavis, Darwinzon, Latkins, Walden, Poyner, Sam Travis, Shawaryn, Tzu-wei Lin, and Brian Johnson.
Now that's not to say there weren't physically younger players like E-Rod or Betts on the ML club - but their FA clocks were already ticking. It's also not to say that there weren't some good FA signings/extensions like Vazquez. But it is absolutely significant that there was no pipleline of MiL talent.
Epstein oversaw the 2003-2011 drafts.
Cherington 2012-2015.
Dombrowski 2016-2019.
Bloom 2020-2022.
You can see where this is going. What is the stockpiled talent from the 2013/2014/15/16/17 drafts for the 2019/20/21/22 clubs to draw upon? These would be guys in the first half of the 6 year window (just called up) or those expected to come up soon.
2012 - Nothing. #24 Deven Marreo (but traded for Josh Taylor - Up in 2019), #31 Brian Johnson (ineffective), #37 Pat Light (ineffective)
2012 IFA - Nothing.
2013 - Nothing. #7 ball (HS pitcher) flamed out, as did all the other picks.
2013 IFA - Nothing. (Devers, already up in 2017.)
2014 - Nothing. #26 Chavis. (#33 Kopech already traded for Sale.)
2014 IFA - Nothing. (Moncada already traded for Sale). Rusney Castillo.
2015 - Nothing. #7 Benintendi already up in 2016 with the clock running. Poyner is in this draft.
2015 IFA - Nothing.
2016- #118 Dalbec - 2020. (#12 Groome injured, later traded.) Shawaryn was in this draft. And Kyle Hart (for those 5 of us who actually watched the 2020 season.)
2016 IFA - Mata.
2017 - #24 Houck - 2020. #491 Cutter Crawford - 2022.
2017 - Hector Velazquez. Brayan Bello -2022 (rushed).
2018 - #26 Casas - late 2022. Duran - 2021.
Point being that the close of 2019 club just didn't have a lot of pre-arb contributors on the 26 man beyond Devers and Taylor. (Mostly because the Cherington Drafts were unmitigated disasters, and the minors weren't restocked with close to ML-ready players.) At the ML level there were no starters, or competent supporting pieces in the pen (save Taylor), or support players learning their roles. It did have lot of expensive players and FAs to be. And a lot of marginal talent around those guys.
The players who did come up: Taylor in 2019 alternated good years with injury years. Dalbec in 2020 has been inconsistent to the point of being demoted. Houck in 2020 seemed exceptionally promising, but has been injured and inconsistent. Duran in 2021 looked overmatched and is still making the transition - despite some hot starts when called up. Crawford and Bello in 2022 have shown promise, but it's not like they've yet stepped into their roles. Casas in 2022 had a tryout in dead-time, and following a cold start in 2023 is trending upwards. Point being that even if these guys were physically available in 2020 or 2021 or 2022, there was clearly a talent-gap.
The notable younger/cost controlled players acquired by Bloom since 2020 (while also shuffling ML players). Bold is currently pre arb:
Verdugo (Betts)
Wong (Betts)
Arroyo (waivers)
Pivetta (Hembree)
Ort (rule 5)
Whitlock (rule 5)
Zack Kelly (ml FA)
Winckowski (Benintendi)
Schreiber (waivers)
Enmanuel Valdez (Vazquez)
McGuire (Diekman)
Hamilton at AAA (Renfroe)
Abreu at AAA (Vazquez)
Add those to the pre-arb guys who are contributing from the minors: Crawford, Houck, Casas, and you've got a significantly different looking club from the one that finished 2019. Depending on who sticks and who does not, you know what your FA shopping list will look like, instead of "Everything."
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THIS…. Is why I’m excited about this team and the future. Serious flaws this season and all, it’s a team that has Houck, Whitlock, Bello and Crawford in the rotation. THAT is freaking fun! It’s got an underrated C kid (the one we thought was a pointless toss-in yo the Mookie deal) looking legit. Casas slowly looking like he could be a middle of the order bat. And then there’s Mayer already looking like he needs tougher competition.
I’m not sure the flaws on ‘22 were fixable short term without hurting the long term.
If that makes me a Bloom Fan-Boy I guess I’ll be…. Whatever.
This could be applied to positivity towards Bloom as well. Not sure why one side has to provide data while the other can just say “This team is freaking Fun!!!” And that’s fine?
I'm going to presume your "freaking fun" quip is directed toward the Sandy Leon Trotsky post above yours? The one agreeing with Rovin Romine's quoted post that is very long and very full of data? With tables and everything?
What’s the difference between, say, Wong-Winckowski-Valdez and Swihart-Johnson-Chavis, for example, though? The current guys look more appealing, at least in part, because they haven’t failed yet and we don’t know what they will become.
Maybe the current trio has also been more productive than the other 3 in the majors LOL
It’s easy to forget but Swihart, Chavis, and Johnson all were pretty promising and played fairly well when they first got called up LOL
I don’t think the difference lay in any innate qualities of those guys as much as it does the player development system, personnel and infrastructure, availability and use of data tracking, and so on between the DD and Bloom eras.
Like, what’s the difference between Schreiber 2022 and Schreiber 2019? I think this FO is very diligent about finding players with certain distinctions (like Whitlock’s release point, and plenty others we can barely detect) and maximizing them. Doesn’t work with everyone of course.
1) Why don't you look at the actual stats and tell us?
2) Because Wong-Winckowski-Valdez group also includes Bello, Houck, Whitlock, etc. Which is the entire point of the post upthread.
To dumb it down:
2019 - little pre-arb talent and nothing in the pipeline.
2023 - pre-arb talent, and more in the pipeline.
I dunno, what’s the difference between Jeff Springs 2022 and 2020? Kluber 2023 and any other year? I’d like to think that the Sox organization has some secret sauce and can maximize results from players- and that their infrastructure and use of data tracking is top notch, but where’s the evidence? Their pitching results since 2020 are not good.
A) the pandemic
B) aren’t we talking about player development? Kluber is 37
Given the dearth of right handed hitting on the team and the system overall he’s absolutely not “blocked from above” and there’s not a lot of RHH talent to replace him with. He and Mayer should absolutely be off limits.
i think ohtiani will go to sea or SF
sea has a good ballpark mix i think number 51 for seattle was his idoi
SF great ballpark and also they offer 400 mil for judge
the dogers make sease but does their gm want atother mega payroll on the books betts freeman
the mets and paders needs more than just ohtani the mets are curse lol
Dismissing with the wave of a hand the Red Sox’ international free agency efforts from the middle of the previous decade ignores important context.
In 2014-15, Boston signed Yoan Moncada and Anderson Espinoza. Moncada was later the centerpiece for acquiring Chris Sale and Espinoza was later traded for Drew Pomeranz.
Due to exceeding their tbonus pool to sign Moncada, the Red Sox were restricted to bonuses not exceeding $300,000 in 2015-16 but still signed Bryan Mata, Gregory Santos, and Simon Muzziotti. Santos was later traded for Eduardo Nunez and is now an essential member of the White Sox’ bullpen. Muzziotti’s contract was voided and, although knee surgery truncated his 2022 major-league debut, he is now enjoying a very productive season with the Phillies’ top affiliate.
The circumvention of the $300,000 cap that led to Muzziotti being declared a free agent also led to Boston being effectively banned from the 2016-17 signing period. They were permitted to sign Hector Velazquez, who was more productive in a few seasons as a spot starter than Garrett Richards or Corey Kluber during their Red Sox tenures.
Free from restrictions in 2017-18 for the first time in three years, the Red Sox signed Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, Daniel Flores, Aldo Ramirez, and Gilberto Jimenez. Flores, universally considered among the five best prospects in the class, tragically lost his life to cancer. Chaim Bloom later traded Ramirez for Kyle Schwarber. Jimenez has since lost much of his prospect luster but, as recently as late 2021, was still considered a comparable prospect to Ezequiel Duran and Garrett Mitchell.
The diminished long-term impact of international free agents from the middle of the past decade is much less a function of scouting and much more a function of the pursuit and realization of a World Series championship. Despite Dave Dombrowski’s impetuousness, a period’s ban from signings, and the Flores tragedy, Bloom still inherited from those four years of IFA a front-line starter in Sale— creaking by late 2019 but not yet cracking, the best starting pitcher that the Red Sox have developed in more than a decade in Bello, and another quartet of legitimate prospects— one of whom was traded for a player that was a significant reason why Bloom’s only successful major-league team is remembered as two games from the World Series rather than two games from the playoffs.
A shallow haul in terms of immediate production, yes, but hardly a fallow one in terms of organizational value. Even recent products from current international developmental machines like the Dodgers and Rangers still form more of a complement than a core for their contending parent clubs.
In 2014-15, Boston signed Yoan Moncada and Anderson Espinoza. Moncada was later the centerpiece for acquiring Chris Sale and Espinoza was later traded for Drew Pomeranz.
Due to exceeding their tbonus pool to sign Moncada, the Red Sox were restricted to bonuses not exceeding $300,000 in 2015-16 but still signed Bryan Mata, Gregory Santos, and Simon Muzziotti. Santos was later traded for Eduardo Nunez and is now an essential member of the White Sox’ bullpen. Muzziotti’s contract was voided and, although knee surgery truncated his 2022 major-league debut, he is now enjoying a very productive season with the Phillies’ top affiliate.
The circumvention of the $300,000 cap that led to Muzziotti being declared a free agent also led to Boston being effectively banned from the 2016-17 signing period. They were permitted to sign Hector Velazquez, who was more productive in a few seasons as a spot starter than Garrett Richards or Corey Kluber during their Red Sox tenures.
Free from restrictions in 2017-18 for the first time in three years, the Red Sox signed Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, Daniel Flores, Aldo Ramirez, and Gilberto Jimenez. Flores, universally considered among the five best prospects in the class, tragically lost his life to cancer. Chaim Bloom later traded Ramirez for Kyle Schwarber. Jimenez has since lost much of his prospect luster but, as recently as late 2021, was still considered a comparable prospect to Ezequiel Duran and Garrett Mitchell.
The diminished long-term impact of international free agents from the middle of the past decade is much less a function of scouting and much more a function of the pursuit and realization of a World Series championship. Despite Dave Dombrowski’s impetuousness, a period’s ban from signings, and the Flores tragedy, Bloom still inherited from those four years of IFA a front-line starter in Sale— creaking by late 2019 but not yet cracking, the best starting pitcher that the Red Sox have developed in more than a decade in Bello, and another quartet of legitimate prospects— one of whom was traded for a player that was a significant reason why Bloom’s only successful major-league team is remembered as two games from the World Series rather than two games from the playoffs.
A shallow haul in terms of immediate production, yes, but hardly a fallow one in terms of organizational value. Even recent products from current international developmental machines like the Dodgers and Rangers still form more of a complement than a core for their contending parent clubs.
Just snipping this for space sake. This is a good response and I think posting on my phone forced me to not be completely clear on that point. We certainly haven’t suffered like those fans did for some really bad years and likely wouldn’t stand for it. My point was more that we finished last and still didn’t get a high pick to show for it outside the Mayer draft. So you need to be smarter and better at drafting and developing because even in a bad year you’re unlikely to get a top 4 pick. I’m still not sure we’ve implemented anything on the development side that will give us an edge. I’m hopeful but remain a bit skeptical.
1.That farm system ranking is as much a product of Cherington as DD. I’m not saying DD did wonders for the farm system but he did draft and sign quite a few of the guys contributing now or those viewed to be helping soon.And he also won a WS. But I’m no DD apologist he should have been fired into the sun for the Sale extension alone.
2. I just think people are very selective in how they view sample sizes when it comes to if they are praising or defending a Bloom move.
3. If he continues to pitch like he has 1/14 would be a bargain, I agree. But it ignores the fact that he’s here pitching for $4 because he felt guilty or loyalty or something but there was no guarantee of that so let’s be careful giving Bloom too much credit for that because Paxton easily could have walked.
4. Sure be excited for the farm. I like prospects too. But let’s just pump the breaks a bit on the $185m player development machine being fully operational until these guys come up and look like major league players. Still a long way from Greenville and Portland to Boston. And even guys here still have question marks. Bloom apologists are just very quick to pencil in the 2025 lineup with kids who could still fail and statistically are likely to.
Yes for sure. 100% agree. The Sox, by not being TERRIBLE, need to do better, relatively speaking, at drafting than teams who totally suck. But in baseball, it's way more random (I think) compared to other sports. Still...the Sox have their work cut out for them. But at least I can see the improvement of the farm system from what it was, and I think that pipeline is starting to ramp up.
But as always....time will tell.
I assume this is directed at me, since I don't see any other posting dwelling on IFAs. I don't disagree with your post.
Please understand my post was not intended to create a comprehensive history of the ebb and flow of the Sox org.
It was expressly addressing ML-proximate cost-controlled talent in the Sox org in 2019/20, when Bloom started to retool the farm. And no, there was not much left flowing through from the Cherington years.
I'm not necessarily a Chaim apologist. He is carrying out the organizational philosophy that John Henry and the rest of the ownership team made clear they wanted when they hired Bloom: cut the major league payroll while simultaneously rebuilding the farm system through the draft. So I'm not sure firing Bloom would accomplish much of anything in terms of improvement, unless ownership feels that he's drafting the wrong players.
Rebuilding through the draft takes several years. And I saw it noted by an earlier poster that the purpose of this rebuild is not to field a full roster of "home grown" players. It's to get enough players on the roster that are both capable major leaguers and cost controlled so the team can invest its resources into filling out holes via trades and free agency.
Now I do agree he's had some serious misses and unforced errors when it comes to handling the major league roster. He's also had some potential hits, although the hits are still early in their tenure here (Yoshida - should noted every time that Shaughnessy is a useless troll who should not be counted up on to provide valid opinions regarding Chaim's signings). And so I get why posters don't have confidence in Bloom to manage this ongoing transition, as his major league roster handling will become even more critical once those draft picks start showing up in Fenway.
Rebuilding through the draft takes several years. And I saw it noted by an earlier poster that the purpose of this rebuild is not to field a full roster of "home grown" players. It's to get enough players on the roster that are both capable major leaguers and cost controlled so the team can invest its resources into filling out holes via trades and free agency.
Now I do agree he's had some serious misses and unforced errors when it comes to handling the major league roster. He's also had some potential hits, although the hits are still early in their tenure here (Yoshida - should noted every time that Shaughnessy is a useless troll who should not be counted up on to provide valid opinions regarding Chaim's signings). And so I get why posters don't have confidence in Bloom to manage this ongoing transition, as his major league roster handling will become even more critical once those draft picks start showing up in Fenway.
Perhaps - like the Cherrington to DD to Chaim sequencing - Chaim is the right guy for the next year or so, and then they move on to someone else more skilled at major league transactions when they are truly ready to contend.
To me, the bolded has always been the crux and I still don’t see where we are in the journey.
Doesn’t seems soon, but how long is long enough to have results? Is it 3 years? 5? 7? 10? If Bloom represented a three year rebuilding plan to ownership then it’s behind that timeline to competing for a WS.
On the other side, would you be more inclined as GM to sign real contracts (not just the 1 year treadmills) if you knew it was a 6 year plan? If we’re planning on waiting for the prospect bandwagon to arrive before signing longer term deals (yes I see you Devers) then it’s still wandering in desert (aka 500 with high variance) for a while.
Honestly, the smartest thing Chaim did was to punt the messed up 2020 COVID year. Imagine where we’d be if we didn’t have Mayer to dream on and Yorke, instead, of Mayer was the crown jewel. It’s now a lost year for Bleis with his injury so he’s got to be at least 3 years away.
There's not really a sharp line to draw for "expected results" given that the players actually have to transition to the majors (or not). But by 2024 I think we'll have significant ML experience for guys like Casas/Crawford/Duran/Winckowski/Bello, plus even newer players ready to promote.
(Also, the lost MiL year of 2020 really can't be discounted.)
Every player develops at a different pace, but a quick Google search shows that the average player spends between four and seven years in the minors. It's either up or out. Every organization can be given a pass for 2020 in terms of minor league development, but it would be fair to expect at least some of the players Bloom brought into the organization as armatures to begin making lasting contributions to the big-league club in 2024.
What Is The Average Time Spent In Minor League Baseball? - Stick & Bat (stickandbat.com)
I don't think the bottle of wine is a move you make if you're expecting the upcoming season to be a rebuilding/.500 sort of year
Yeah, I imagine Bloom thought 2022, and now 2023, could replicate 2021. Basically 90-ish win teams that could make a little noise in the post season if things broke right.
Pete Abraham throes a punch, imo much deserved. This franchise is rutterless and changed are needed.
View: https://twitter.com/peteabe/status/1668818590722580486?s=46&t=8XFCjgbF1qQWLVKslle9tw
@PeteAbe
#RedSox:
* 227-225 last four seasons.
* 111-119 last two seasons.
* 4 home sellouts this season.
* Last place all but 27 days since July 26, 2022.
* Endless roster churn.
At what point does ownership decide this is not working? Because it's clearly not.
View: https://twitter.com/peteabe/status/1668818590722580486?s=46&t=8XFCjgbF1qQWLVKslle9tw
@PeteAbe
#RedSox:
* 227-225 last four seasons.
* 111-119 last two seasons.
* 4 home sellouts this season.
* Last place all but 27 days since July 26, 2022.
* Endless roster churn.
At what point does ownership decide this is not working? Because it's clearly not.
I feel like this is stats calling out Pete for this asinine take. Which pete then doubles down on
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1668820678265413632?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/peteabe/status/1668824649776390144?s=46
The one thing I know for sure is that firing Chaim Bloom will result in a "No. 2 or No. 3 starter" arriving ASAP.
I don't have a horse in the Bloom race, but I'm skeptical that changing GM's every four years is going to lead to sustained success.
I don't have a horse in the Bloom race, but I'm skeptical that changing GM's every four years is going to lead to sustained success.
Boston sports writers are the worst. Let's cherry-pick some meaningless stats and throw in a ridiculous "Endless roster churn." Dude, if the team weren't having ridiculously bad injury luck, there wouldn't be all of this "roster churn!" And, yeah, let's forget all the positives, too.
* Paxton, Bello, Whitlock, and Houck are the makings of a very solid rotation (jury still out on Crawford)
* team staying afloat despite Sale going down again (see above)
* Story and Mondesi's returns point to better things to come
* Duran doing better than anyone thought possible going into the season
* Turner, Yoshida, and Martin very solid additions
* Devers threatening to turn things around, which would be a big shot in the arm for the offense
* Wong developing into a nice starting catcher. Huge impact throwing runners out
But, hey, let's just avoid reality and stick to our talking points. That's what Boston sports writers do best.
Pete Abraham has become Husky Dan Shaughnessy. Sometimes he has a point, but it's delivered in the whiniest possible way.
I respect optimism, I really do. But the Sox are 2 games under .500, 14 1/2 games out of first and 5 1/2 out of the third wild card. The Sox kinda stink. Blaming the media seems weird.
It's June 13. Story said yesterday he won't play short until August. He didn't say when in August. Mondesi hasn't played a game since April 26, 2022 and no one has any idea when he will be able to return.
The #2 or #3 starter is currently in the rotation pitching very well and was pitching in AA last year
Dont let facts get in the way of Pete shooting off fact free hot takes.
And Pete accusing his audience of being part of the problem? Thats a bold strategy to get people to continue to subscribe to the globe. .
and if he thinks the sox should go back to spending obscene amounts of money in FA as if we were in the Pre CBT era.
That does not work anymore. Just ask the Mets Padres and Phillies who are under 500 after spending as much money in FA as the GDP of a country
There is no reason to believe that anything will be done to improve this team and what they have to trade isn’t likely to bring back very much. If Bloom were fired tomorrow, I wouldn’t shed a single tear. The reality is that he has not demonstrated that he is capable of building a consistent winner. Maybe a miracle will occur in a few years and a bunch of the minor league players will be all star caliber, but Casas has shown the transition to the majors is not an easy one. There is no reason that any player should want to play here because there is no indication that management or ownership care about winning the division and trying to get to the WS. For a franchise that is worth 4.5 billion, the roster constructed by Bloom is pathetic. Do the players deserve some blame? Absolutely, but you aren’t going to get rid of all the players.
I bet my life savings that if the Mets and Sox had their offseason’s swapped and had the same record the mets have today. Pete would be complaining about reckless spending (just like the reporters in NY are doing right now)
Large payroll does not equal success
The mets (highest payroll in Mlb)
The padres (third highest)
Phillies ( 4th highest)
All have records below 500.
PIT (28th)
TB (27th)
Ari (21st)
Are all leading their division with a record greater than .500.
Large payroll does not equal success
The mets (highest payroll in Mlb)
The padres (third highest)
Phillies ( 4th highest)
All have records below 500.
PIT (28th)
TB (27th)
Ari (21st)
Are all leading their division with a record greater than .500.
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If ownership doesn't care about winning why did they spend 100 million for a japanese guy most fans had never heard of, 16 million a year for a closer, and 140 million for Story? Devers too, but you can at least argue that he was a home grown guy the fans knew and they wanted to keep them happy.
I am not sure how this post is anymore the “reality” than PeteAbe’s tweet. It’s just two sides of the same coin. He was pessimistic and this is crazy optimistic
I'll preface this by stating that I'm probably a bigger Bloom defender than most posters here. I concede that not all of his moves have worked out well, and he has not been perfect. But I'm interested in taking a different approach to these discussions. Maybe you guys on the other side of the fence are, too.
To those of you who are calling for Bloom's head, I'd like to pose a hypothetical. Let's say that John Henry and FSG call an emergency press conference tomorrow and announce that Bloom is gone, effective immediately. Boom, done. No more Chaim Bloom.
What happens next? Who's at the helm? What would you like to see our organizational goals to be? Winning another World Series as quickly as possible? Building a consistent contender? How do you think they should do this?
And no take backs, no relitigating old trades and wishing for Mookies and Xanders. What changes would you like to see made to this organization as it currently stands?
To those of you who are calling for Bloom's head, I'd like to pose a hypothetical. Let's say that John Henry and FSG call an emergency press conference tomorrow and announce that Bloom is gone, effective immediately. Boom, done. No more Chaim Bloom.
What happens next? Who's at the helm? What would you like to see our organizational goals to be? Winning another World Series as quickly as possible? Building a consistent contender? How do you think they should do this?
And no take backs, no relitigating old trades and wishing for Mookies and Xanders. What changes would you like to see made to this organization as it currently stands?
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